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Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate 2012: New Foundations in an Uncertain World

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Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate 2012: New Foundations in an Uncertain World E x p E c T a tio n s & M a R k et R E a litie s I n R E a L E s T a te 2 0 1 2 NEW FOUNDATIONS IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD DELOITTE | R E a L E s Tate re s E a R c h cor p or atio n | n aTIO n a L a s s O c I aTIO n O F R E a LTO R s Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate 2012—New Foundations in an Uncertain World © 2012 | Real Estate Research Corporation, Deloitte Development LLC, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form electronically, by xerography, microfilm, or otherwise, or incorporated into any database or infor- mation retrieval system, without the written permission of the copyright owners. Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate 2012 is published by: Real Estate Research Corporation 205 North Michigan Ave. Suite 2200 Chicago, I L 60601-5923 Deloitte 111 S. Wacker Drive Chicago, IL 60606 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 430 North Michigan Ave. Chicago, IL 60611 Disclaimer: This report is designed to provide general information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the authors of this report are not engaged in rendering legal or accounting services. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, and the authors of this report advise that no statement in this report is to be construed as a recommendation to make any real estate investment or to buy or sell any security or as investment advice. The examples contained in the report are intended for use as background on the real estate industry as a whole, not as support for any particular real estate investment or security. Neither Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC), Deloitte, nor NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR), nor any of their respective directors, officers, and employees warrant as to the accuracy of or assume any liability for the information contained herein. As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte & Touche LLP, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP, Deloitte Consulting LLP, Deloitte Tax LLP, and Deloitte Corporate Finance LLC. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. E x p E c T a tio n s & M a R k et R E a litie s I n R E a L E s T a te 2 0 1 2 NEW FOUNDATIONS IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD DELOITTE | R E a L E s Tate re s E a R c h cor p or atio n | n aTIO n a L a s s O c I aTIO n O F R E a LTO R s ExpEc Tations & MaRket REalities In REaL EsTaTE 2012 | nEW FOUnDaTIONS In AN UNCERTaIn WORLD SPONSORING FIRMS Real Estate Research Corporation Founded in 1931, Real Estate Research Corporation was one of the first national firms dedicated to commercial real estate research, valuation, and consulting services. Today, RERC is also known for its independent fiduciary services, management information systems, valuation manage- ment, and litigation support services. With its practical know-how and discipline, RERC serves as the independent fiduciary and oversees all real estate investment- and valuation-related activity of the multi-billion dollar real estate accounts for several major pension funds. In addition, RERC provides web-based portfolio technology solutions and valuation management for several other major funds. Further, RERC has provided fairness opinions on dozens of major acquisitions tota- ling over $1 billion. RERC’s valuation services also have proven rewarding to real estate owners and investors for tax appeals and expert witness testimony in partnership disputes. Deloitte Deloitte1 is a recognized leader in providing audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory serv- ices to the real estate industry. Our clients include top REITs, real estate buyers, property own- ers and managers, lenders, brokerage firms, investment managers, pension fund managers, and leading homebuilding and engineering & construction companies. Our Real Estate Serv- ices team provides an integrated approach to assisting clients minimize real estate costs and enhancing firm value. We customize our services in ways to fit the specific needs of each player in a real estate transaction, from owners to investment advisors, from property management and leasing operators to insurance companies. Our multi-disciplinary approach allows us to provide regional, national and global services to our clients. Our real estate practice is recog- nized for bringing together teams with diverse experience and knowledge to provide custom- ized solutions for all clients. Deloitte’s national Real Estate services industry sector comprises over 1,100 professionals supporting real estate clients out of offices in 50 cities; key locations include Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s larg- est trade association, representing 1.1 million members, including more than 79,000 com- mercial real estate specialists and NAR’s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, prop- erty managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and com- mercial real estate. The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America’s property own- ers, the National Association provides a facility for professional development, research and exchange of information among its members and to the public and government for the pur- pose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property. 1as used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte & Touche LLp, Deloitte Financial advisory services LLp, Deloitte consulting LLp, Deloitte Tax LLp, and Deloitte corporate Finance LLc. please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLp and its subsidiaries. certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. ©2012 Deloitte DEvelopmenT LLc, REaL EsTate resEaRch corporation, NATIONAL ASSOcIaTIOn OF REaLTORs. All righTs reser ved. | 4 ExpEc Tations & MaRket REalities In REaL EsTaTE 2012 | nEW FOUnDaTIONS In AN UNCERTaIn WORLD FOREWORD January 2012 Dear Readers, As we prepare to issue our annual outlook report, Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate 2012—New Foundations in an Uncertain World, the financial world appears to still be at risk. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe seems to be unresolved, and many nations’ debt burdens may be unsustainable. Our memories are good enough that we recall the implosion of our credit markets just a few years ago, and given the apparent interconnectedness of the world’s big banks today, we think of how fragile the world’s financial system might be and what may unfold. Although there are no guarantees and there are elements of risk with any investment, we—Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC), Deloitte, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR)—generally agree that institutional-grade commercial real estate appears to have remained relatively stable during recent periods of uncertainty. Besides seeming to have avoided the recent volatility of the stock market, some commercial real estate investments have offered returns greater than those experi- enced by non-real estate equity investors. Thank you to everyone who has contributed to this report, especially our researchers and data providers, economists, business associates, research survey respondents, and the many others who have shared their insights and observations. We also thank you—our clients, subscribers and membership professionals, and consultants—for your interest and support of this report. We hope you find Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate 2012—New Foundations In An Uncertain World of value in this fragile investment environment. Sincerely, Matthew G. Kimmel, CRE, FRICS, MAI Kenneth P. Riggs, Jr., CFA, CRE, FRICS Lawrence Yun, PhD Principal & US Real Estate Services Leader Chairman & President Sr. Vice President, Chief Economist Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP Real Estate Research Corporation NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® ©2012 Deloitte DEvelopmenT LLc, REaL EsTate resEaRch corporation, NATIONAL ASSOcIaTIOn OF REaLTORs. All righTs reser ved. | 5 ExpEc Tations & MaRket REalities In REaL EsTaTE 2012 | nEW FOUnDaTIONS In AN UNCERTaIn WORLD ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Sponsoring Firms & Chairs RERC Editorial Board Matthew g. Kimmel, CRE , FRICS, MAI Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP Stephen blank Urban Land Institute Kenneth p. Riggs, Jr., CFA, CRE, FRICS Real Estate Research Corporation David blankenship AEGON USA Realty Advisors, Inc. Lawrence Yun, phD NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Nicholas g. buss INVESCO Real Estate Susanne Cannon DePaul University - The Real Estate Center geoffrey Dohrmann Institutional Real Estate, Inc. Stephen Furnary Clarion Partners Contributing AUThors Michael gately Cornerstone Advisers David geltner MIT Center for Real Estate barb bush Real Estate Research Corporation Jacques gordon LaSalle Investment Management, Inc. Todd J. Dunlap, MAI, MRICS, Senior Manager John Levy John B. Levy & Company Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP Mary Ludgin Heitman Capital Management, LLC Kenneth W. Kapecki, MAI, CRE, FRICS, Senior Manager Dennis Martin RREEF/DB Real Estate Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP glenn Mueller University of Denver Lindsey Kuhlmann Real Estate Research Corporation Scott Muldavin The Muldavin Company, Inc. Andy J. Miller, Manager Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP Joseph pagliari University of Chicago george Ratiu NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Richard Sokolov Simon Property Group brian Velky, CFA Real Estate Research Corporation Allan Sweet AMLI Residential Properties, LLC Morgan Westpfahl Real Estate Research Corporation R.
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