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Informe 202006 En The Surrender of Breda. Diego Velázquez, 1635. Prado Museum. HOUSE VIEW JUNE 2020 THE EU RECOVERY FUND: THE SURRENDER OF BREDA? HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 The proposed European rescue plan is excellent news for Europe and has triggered a sigh of relief among Southern European governments. The European Commission has issued a proposal for a Multiannual Financial Framework debt worth 750 billion euros, 500 billion of which will be paid out in non-repayable grants. The proposal, born out of France and Germany’s resolve to begin distributing non-repayable grants, has got the countries of the European south – the hardest hit by Covid-19 – rubbing their hands with glee: 75 billion euros in grants for Spain (6.2% of GDP), 82 billion for Italy, 16 billion for Portugal and 22 billion for Greece. There will also be an additional 250 billion euros available in loans, of which 60% will be allocated to Italy and Spain. 1. GRANTS 2. DISTRIBUTION OF LOANS Source: European Commission and Banca March Source: European Commission and Banca March 90 12% 80 Others 10% Italy 70 35% r 36% u E 60 8% M 50 6% 0 40 0 0 1 30 4% x 20 2% 10 0% Italy Greece Spain France Greece Poland 4% Spain Portugal Germany 25% Amount % GDP (right) the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark – this proposal is outstanding news and already enjoys Germany’s in Breda of the Spanish military unit known as the Tercio, captained by Spínola, against the forces of the United those who will foot the bill for the plan? imbalances and the tough years that lie ahead, the EC’s strategy is clear: to roll out a European reconstruction plan needed in response to the problem, with the impact of the funding diluted over time. The bill will paid gradually, over 30 years, as of 2028, and will be partly covered by taxes levied on the companies that generate the most Naturally, funding the project requires the backing of the countries set to contribute the most, which are positioned they put in. THE EU RECOVERY FUND: THE SURRENDER OF BREDA? 2 HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 3. BENEFICIARIES VS. CONTRIBUTORS IN % OF GDP Source: European Commission and Banca March 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% ES IT PL EL PT DK BE AT IE SE NL FR DE % Non-reimbursable transfer % GDP UE 27 Dierence This asymmetry when it comes to footing the bill will mean, without a doubt, that at the next meeting of the therefore be considered an upside proposal, but the foundations for the stimulus have already been laid. It will be months before the instrument sees the light of day, as it needs unanimous backing from Heads of State and the European Parliament followed by validation at the Member State level. What’s more, the money will take time to arrive; in the best case scenario, the funds will start being paid out early next year, and half of the non-repayable grants will be transferred in 2023 and 2024. In the end, they are going to help us, and with great generosity too (Graph 4). electoral gains, these stimulus measures will be subject to certain conditions. The clearest evidence of this is the fact that the payments will be staggered over years, and will be subject to reforms and investments: each government will have to justify how it plans to meet the targets set. The environmental and digital transitions will account for the largest share of the budget and, as shown by Graph 4, will represent at least a quarter of the proportion of the remaining 77% will also likely be channelled into these targets. 4. PAYMENT SCHEDULE 5. DISTRIBUTION OF MULTIANNUAL FINANCIAL PLAN Source: European Commission and Banca March Source: European Commission and Banca March InvestEU Recovery and Resilience Facility and Connect Cohesion Europe Fund and 30% 2% ERDF 6% CAP 7% 25% LIFE and Just Transition Fund 20% 2% 2021 -2027 (MFF) Horizon Financial Plan Europe 15% €1.85 trillion 5% 10% InvestEU, Connect Europe and Digital 5% €1.02 trillion Europe Programme 2014-2020 1% Financial Plan 0% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Green investment Subsidies Loans Others 77% Digital investment THE EU RECOVERY FUND: THE SURRENDER OF BREDA? 3 HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 Just as Spain celebrated the victory of Philip IV, King of Spain, in 1625, so we will now celebrate the expected stimulus measures that are en route to help us overcome the damage wrought by Covid-19. We must never forget that what matters is not winning the battle; it is winning the war. Breda may have fallen, but in the end, we lost the Battle of Flanders. Solidarity from the North will not be enough to get us through this ordeal. Like Spínola, An opportunity of paramount importance lies before us. We must not squander it. You can gain a deeper insight into our macro and asset outlooks in this month’s House View, where we explain that despite rising asset prices fuelled by abundant stimulus measures, we recommend staying our course: holding equities and building exposure to credit. Joan Bonet Majó Chief Investment Strategist THE EU RECOVERY FUND: THE SURRENDER OF BREDA? 4 HOUSE VIEW JUNE 2020 LEAVING LETHARGY BEHIND HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 LEAVING LETHARGY BEHIND ASSET ALLOCATION ASSET CLASS NEUTRAL LIQUIDITY EQUITY ALTERNATIVE NEUTRAL SOVEREIGN DEBT High quality (AAA) Peripheral CORPORATE BONDS Investment Grade High Yield EMERGING DEBT CONVERTIBLE BONDS EQUITIES NEUTRAL EUROPE United Kingdom UNITED STATES EMERGING REST OF THE WORLD CURRENCIES NEUTRAL U.S. DOLLAR STERLING POUND MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE Global de-escalation plans are underway and outbreaks are under control for now. direction. Whilst there are lingering fears of additional outbreaks, the virus is losing strength in the northern hemisphere as the summer approaches and any new cases have been controlled, to date, without the need to dial back reactivation processes. LEAVING LETHARGY BEHIND 6 HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 There are ample case studies from which to draw conclusions: whilst countries like Brazil, Mexico and Russia are still working to contain the outbreak, schools have gone back in most of Europe (except Spain and Italy), and in Asia, logistics markets have now been operating normally for two months. In Spain, 70% of the population is Source: Bloomberg, Oxford Economics and Banca March USA Intensity of lockdown measures China UK Spain Japan China Italy USA Spain France UK France Italy Germany Germany Japan than 100 studies underway, eight of which are already in the clinical development phase, which will require a The news changes from week to week, but there are currently six studies at more advanced stages. One worth highlighting is the study underway by AstraZeneca with Oxford University; the pharma company says a vaccine will be ready by September and it is aiming to produce up to one billion doses by the end of next year. positioned and expect to launch vaccines late this year or in early 2021. Of the three, Moderna has committed show promise, with both expecting to have a vaccine by 2021 and produce up to one billion doses. Despite the impressive speed, there could still be bumps in the road; the vaccines may not work, or may fail to in recent weeks, which has paralysed part of the necessary clinical trials and could jeopardise the estimated LEAVING LETHARGY BEHIND 7 HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 Source: Companies. Production 2021 Possible vaccination Company name Country (millions of doses) date CanSino China 180 1Q21 Moderna USA. 1.000 4T20/1Q21 Oxford University/AstraZeneca UK 400 -1.000 sep-20 BioNtech/Pzer Germany/US. 550 sep-20 Johnson&Johnson US. 1.000 2021 Sano/Glaxosmithkline France/UK 1.000 2021 as the de-escalation process began... This supports our hypothesis that the harshest contraction in economic activity is now behind us as the stricter 2. TURNAROUND IN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 3. THE WORST OF THE CONTRACTION IS BEHIND US Source: Bloomberg and Banca March Source: Bloomberg and Banca March Composite PMI 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Year-on-year GDP -8 -10 Aggregate high frequency indicators -12 USA Eurozone China Threshold 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 in May, in line with the pattern previously seen in China. It is important to point out that despite this uptick, composite PMI in the eurozone stood at 31.9, which is still below the lowest point reached in the last recession (36.2 in February 2009), indicating that we are witnessing a recovery, but it is still weak. LEAVING LETHARGY BEHIND 8 HOUSE VIEW. JUNE 2020 Elsewhere, high frequency indicators (graph 3), particularly in the US, started to show an incipient improvement of last month, these weekly indicators were in line with a year-on-year drop in GDP of just over 10%, which in annualised quarterly terms would represent a 40% downturn in activity in Q2. That is most severe contraction in recent history in the world’s largest economy. ...but the recession was deeper than expected and the recovery will be gradual, which will mean downgrades to full year forecasts. The real data published for activity in April and initial data coming through for May show that the economic hibernation triggered by Covid-19 has caused activity to collapse completely and that the economic contraction registered over the last three months has been even more severe than expected. Further details have also come to light around the plans to reactivate the major global economies, which despite moving in the right direction continue to be impacted by ongoing cautiousness and restrictions on movement, which is why we expect to see a very gradual return to normality.
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