Water is for fighting over T RANSBOUNDARY FLOWS IN THE I NDUS R IVER
Hassaan Furqan Khan Stanford University
CUAHSI Fall Cyberseminar Series
September 27, 2018 Stories of transboundary water management in the Indus
1. INDUS WATER TREATY BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA
2. INTER-PROVINCIAL ACCORD BETWEEN PROVINCES OF PAKISTAN
3. KABUL RIVER BASIN BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN Part 1 INDUS WATER TREATY The Indus Basin in Pakistan
• FED BY THE INDUS RIVER AND ITS FIVE TRIBUTARIES • Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej
• CLIMATE VARYING FROM ARID TO SEMI-ARID
• LARGEST CONTIGUOUS IRRIGATION SYSTEM AGRICULTURE: 25% OF GDP, ~46% LABOR
• INDUS BASIN SHARED BY 4 COUNTRIES Preamble to the Treaty
• PARTITION IN 1947: PAKISTAN AND INDIA • 90% of IBIS (Indus Basin Irrigation System) in Pakistan • The rivers flowed through Indian-occupied Kashmir
• INTER DOMINION ACCORD OF 1948
• NEGOTIATIONS THROUGHOUT THE 1950S • India argued for ‘equitable use’ • Pakistan argued for ‘no appreciable harm’ Indus Water Treaty (IWT)
• PAKISTAN: 3 WESTERN RIVERS [INDUS, JHELUM, CHENAB] • Comprising 75% of total flow
• INDIA: 3 EASTERN RIVERS [SUTLEJ, BEAS, RAVI]
• FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR INDUS BASIN REPLACEMENT WORKS (IBRW) • Two massive reservoirs (Tarbela and Mangla) • 8 massive link-canals • 6 major diversion barrages Unique features of the Indus Water Treaty
• RATHER THAN DIVIDE WATERS, IT DIVIDES RIVERS
• ONLY INTERNATIONAL WATER TREATY CO-SIGNED BY THIRD PARTY
• VARYING PROCESS FOR SETTLEMENT OF ISSUES • Commission, Neutral Expert, Court of Arbitration
• EARLY NOTIFICATION FOR PLANNED PROJECTS
• ENTERED INTO EFFECT RETROACTIVELY So everything’s good then, right?
• BAGLIHAR DAM • Hydropower constructed by India on Chenab • First time since 1960 that the World Bank was called upon Major challenges
• ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS IN EASTERN RIVERS
• GROUNDWATER
• LITIGATION AND MISTRUST • Kishengenga dam • Rattle dam Part 2 INTER-PROVINCIAL ACCORD How the Accord came about
• COMPLETION OF IRBW: POST IWT WATER AVAILABILITY
• APPORTIONMENT OF WATERS OF THE INDUS RIVER SYSTEMS BETWEEN PROVINCES OF PAKISTAN 1991 • aka The Accord • Not an act of Parliament • Indus River System Authority (IRSA) created to implement the Accord The how and how much of water allocation
• TOTAL ALLOCATED WATER: 145 BCM (BILLION CUBIC METERS) • Largest intra-national water allocation • Allocations made by volume • Punjab: ~49%, Sind: ~42.7% • Summer : 67%, Winter: 33%
• PRIMARILY AGRICULTURE • Nothing explicitly mentioned for large urban centers
• DISCORD: SUBJECT TO INVESTMENTS IN STORAGE? Environmental flows vs Infrastructure Development
• NO EXPLICIT APPORTIONMENT • Sind proposed 12.3 BCM • Deferred to later studies • Gonzalez et al (2005): 4.44 BCM Neither formally accepted or refuted by Sind Here’s where it gets REALLY messy
• ACCORD DEALS WITH VARIABILITY….. IN MORE THAN ONE WAY
• USE IT OR LOSE IT • Used by Punjab to argue against water trading Operating Rules: If that wasn’t bad enough…. Monitoring and Review: Where is it all disappearing? Major Challenges
• LACK OF A CLEARLY STATED OBJECTIVE
• OPERATING RULES LACK CLARITY AND ARE CONTRADICTORY
• LARGE VOLUME OF UNACCOUNTED WATER Part 3 KABUL RIVER B ASIN KABUL RIVER BASIN
MAJOR TRIBUTARY: KUNAR RIVER 75% OF THE ANNUAL FLOW
UNIQUE RIVER PATH
• KEY ISSUES • Insufficient water supply • Vulnerability to natural disasters • Energy crisis Modeling overview
Kabul River Basin Hydrology and Water Systems Model (KRB-HWS)
• • • Datasets and sources
TOPOGRAPHY (ASTER 30M DEM)
CLIMATE (TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION) . Observed (PMD) & Remotely Observed (APHRODITE) . Projections of future climate (CMIP5)
STREAMFLOW (GRDC, USGS, WAPDA, MOW AFGHAN)
LAND COVER . Glaciers (Randolph), Soil type (FAO)
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (GREY LITERATURE)
POPULATION (CIESN) Hydrologic model: HYMOD_DS
HYMOD ORIGINALLY A LUMPED RAINFALL RUNOFF MODEL
SOIL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
FLOW ROUTING . Grid cell routing . Channel routing
SNOW & GLACIER MODULE . Degree-day method HYMOD_DS
GENETIC ALGORITHM (GA) FOR MODEL PARAMETER CALIBRATION
OBJECTIVE FUNCTION . multi-site average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) System model representation Scenario Analysis: what might drive the system?
CLIMATE CHANGE: ALTERED RIVER FLOWS . RCP 4, 8.5; three time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100
AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION IN AFGHANISTAN . Current, 60% of potential, 100% of potential
INCREASED DIVERSIONS IN UPSTREAM PAKISTAN . 0%, 5%, 15% of flow entering Afghanistan
INFRASTRUCTURE: RESERVOIR OPERATIONS . Maximize summer flows entering Pakistan OR system-wide winter hydropower Effect of climate change on streamflow
INCREASED TOTAL FLOWS . Higher glacial melt Effect of climate change on streamflow
MORE PRONOUNCED SHIFT IN FLOW
AGAIN, INCREASED TOTAL FLOWS PAK AFG Operational Winter Hydrology Diversions Agriculture Objective Power PAK AFG Operational Winter Hydrology Diversions Agriculture Objective Power Major Challenges
• MISTRUST AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
• NOT GETTING THE MOST OUT OF THE RESOURCES
• CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FLOWS Takeaways: Transboundary management in the Indus?
• MISDIRECTED PRIORITIES
• CRISIS NOT OF WATER SCARCITY, BUT WATER MANAGEMENT
• INVESTMENT IN HUMAN CAPITAL AND INSTITUTIONS
31 APPENDIX Water resources systems analysis (WRSA) EVALUATE THE WATER BALANCE IMPACTS AND POWER PRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE KABUL RIVER BASIN UNDER A RANGE OF OPERATIONAL AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS
WATER SYSTEM COMPRISED OF . Hydrology . Infrastructure . Ecology . Human actions
WRSA: STUDY OF WATER SYSTEMS USING MATHEMATIC REPRESENTATIONS OF THE DIFFERENT COMPONENTS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OR ASSIST IN DECISION-MAKING (BROWN ET AL., 2015) Dam characteristics
• • PAK AFG Operational Summer Hydrology Diversions Agriculture Objective Flows Sensitivity of Summer Flow
PAK DIVERSIONS: LOW/NO EFFECT
AFGHAN AGRICULTURAL DEMAND: LITTLE
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FLOWS : YES
OPERATIONAL OBJECTIVE: MOST