A Renewable Electricity Supply System in Pakistan by 2050: Assessment of Generation Capacity and Transmission System Requirements

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A Renewable Electricity Supply System in Pakistan by 2050: Assessment of Generation Capacity and Transmission System Requirements A renewable electricity supply system in Pakistan by 2050: assessment of generation capacity and transmission system requirements A Dissertation Presented By Noor JAMAL (M. Engg.) Interdisziplinäres Institut für Umwelt-, Sozial- Und Humanwissenschaften Abteilung Energie- Und Umweltmanagement in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Dr. rer.pol (Wirtschaftswissenschaften) Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller Europa Universität, Flensburg, Germany 14 December 2016 Declaration Certificates “Ich erkläre hiermit an Eides Statt, dass ich die voliegende Arbeit selbständig und ohne Hilfsmittel angefertigt habe; die aus fremden Quellen (einschliesslich elektronischer Quellen, dem Internet und mündlicher Kommunikation) direkt oder indirekt übernommenen Gedanken sind ausnahmslos unter genauer Quellenangabe als solche kenntlich gemacht. Insbesondere habe ich nicht die Hilfe songenannter Promotionsberaterinnen/Promotionsberater in Anspruch genommen. Dritte haben von mir weder unmittelbar noch mittelbar Geld oder geldwerte Leistungen für Arbeiten erhalten, die im Zusammenhang mit dem Inhalt der vorgelegten Dissertation stehen. Die Arbeit wurde bisher weder im Inland noch im Ausland in gleicher oder ähnlicher Form einer anderen Prüfungsbehörde vorgelegt”. Noor JAMAL Flensburg, Germany Hiermit erkläre ich, dass ich bisher keine anderweitigen Promotionsversuche unternommen habe. Noor JAMAL Flensburg, Germany Hiermit erkläre ich, dass ich die Promotionsordnung und die Regeln guter wissenschaftlicher Praxis der Universität Flensburg zur kenntnis gelesen habe. Noor JAMAL Flensburg, Germany Acknowledgment Foremost, I would like to thank my PhD advisor Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer for giving me the opportunity to do my PhD research in the department of Energy and Environment Management (EUM), Europa Universität Flensburg, Germany. I gratefully acknowledge his support throughout this tough journey to finish my thesis. His encouraging and supportive approach, which always provided room for creative writing freedoms, helped me to move forward and achieve the completion of this work. I also gratefully acknowledge the guidance of my second PhD supervisor Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller. His invaluable input helped me to improve and better manage the work and its presentation. I am also thankful to my friend Muhammad Safdar (Afridi) for his guidance and support. He was constantly there to help me to learn the programming of the VB.NET and SQL Server. This helped me to transform my model from the original MS Excel (VBA) into a SQL server (VB.NET) format. In the new form, the model was more robust and better equipped at handling the enormous size of data and findings. I also want to thank all of my groupmates and staff members, whom supported and guided me from time to time while I was getting familiarized to a new living environment. I am grateful to them, and will always remember them as good colleagues. Lastly, I am thankful for the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan for their financial support. Their joint venture scholarship program made it easier for me to focus on the research, and to finish this work on time. Dedication With love and best wishes to my children…… Muhammad Aashir Noor Afridi (Son) and Aayesha Noor Afridi (Daughter) Table Contents Glossary and Abbreviations/ Acronyms....................................................................................................... i List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................. v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ vi Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 01: Introduction and Research Statement ..................................................................................... 1 1.1 Pakistan’s Energy Supply System .................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Statement ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research Objectives ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Research Scope .............................................................................................................................. 4 1.5 Thesis Outline ................................................................................................................................ 5 Chapter 02: Literature Review and Research Questions ............................................................................. 6 2.1 Renewable Energy System Assessment Studies .............................................................................. 6 2.2 Renewable Power Systems Planning and the Needs of Transmission System Infrastructure Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Energy System Analysis and Modeling Frameworks/Tools ........................................................... 10 2.3.1 Classification Criteria ..................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.2 Energy/Power System Modeling Frameworks Review .................................................................. 12 2.4 Research Theme and Questions ................................................................................................... 23 2.5 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................ 24 Chapter 03: Analysis Methodology and Approach .................................................................................... 25 3.1 Demand Forecasting ..................................................................................................................... 25 3.1.1 End-Use Approach ......................................................................................................................... 26 3.2 Supply System Modelling ............................................................................................................. 30 3.2.1 Model Characteristics .................................................................................................................... 31 3.2.2 Methodology Formulation ............................................................................................................ 33 3.3 Transmission Lines Assessment .................................................................................................... 47 3.3.1 Transmission Lines Model ............................................................................................................. 47 3.3.2 Line Load-ability ............................................................................................................................ 49 3.3.3 Requirements of the Transmission Lines ...................................................................................... 49 3.4 Supply Cases Discounted Cost Assessment ................................................................................... 50 3.5 Methodology Overall Flow Chart .................................................................................................. 51 3.6 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................ 53 Chapter 04: Pakistan: A Brief Introduction ............................................................................................... 54 4.1 Basic Information ......................................................................................................................... 54 4.1.1 Geography ..................................................................................................................................... 55 4.1.2 Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 55 4.2 Pakistan’s Energy System ............................................................................................................. 56 4.2.1 Primary Energy Supply Mix ............................................................................................................ 56 4.2.2 Fossil Fuel Resources and Reserves ............................................................................................... 57 4.2.3 Electric Power Supply Current Situation ....................................................................................... 58 4.3 Renewable Energy Development in Pakistan ............................................................................... 58 4.3.1 Renewable Energy Policy of 2006 ................................................................................................. 58 4.3.2 Dedicated Entities ......................................................................................................................... 59 4.4 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................ 59 Chapter 05: Pakistan’s
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