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Defections and Democracy: Explaining Military Loyalty Shifts and Their Impacts on Post-Protest Political Change

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Defections and Democracy: Explaining Military Loyalty Shifts and Their Impacts on Post-Protest Political Change University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 1-1-2018 Defections and Democracy: Explaining Military Loyalty Shifts and Their Impacts on Post-Protest Political Change Kara Leigh Kingma Neu University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons, Military and Veterans Studies Commons, and the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons Recommended Citation Neu, Kara Leigh Kingma, "Defections and Democracy: Explaining Military Loyalty Shifts and Their Impacts on Post-Protest Political Change" (2018). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1432. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/1432 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. DEFECTIONS AND DEMOCRACY: EXPLAINING MILITARY LOYALTY SHIFTS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON POST-PROTEST POLITICAL CHANGE __________ A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver __________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy __________ by Kara Leigh Kingma Neu June 2018 Advisor: Deborah Avant ©Copyright by Kara Leigh Kingma Neu 2018 All Rights Reserved Author: Kara Leigh Kingma Neu Title: DEFECTIONS AND DEMOCRACY: EXPLAINING MILITARY LOYALTY SHIFTS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON POST-PROTEST POLITICAL CHANGE Advisor: Deborah Avant Degree Date: June 2018 Abstract Why do militaries shift their loyalty from authoritarian regimes in some instances of anti-regime protests and not others, and why do these shifts sometimes lead to democratic change? These questions are crucial for understanding the role of the military in democratization, given competing expectations in the literatures on civil-military relations, pacted transitions, and civil resistance. They are also important for understanding the outcomes of protests and other nonviolent campaigns for regime change, a topic of increased attention in recent years. To answer them, I propose an argument rooted in the bases of military authority. Militaries are delegated authority by regimes and gain authority by virtue of their functional role in providing societal security and stability. However, regimes often structure delegation to protect themselves at the expense of military functional capacity. Their use of some coup-proofing strategies introduces tensions between a military’s delegated and functional authority. When mass anti-regime protests challenge regime legitimacy, I argue that the military is more likely to choose to preserve its functional authority (rather than rely on the regime’s delegated authority) by shifting loyalty. The likelihood of loyalty shifts is also affected by the protest movement and whether it is committed to nonviolence and widely supported and a better source of military authority. Using this argument, I explain military loyalty shifts and their types, defined according to the extent and quality of the military organization’s involvement. I then explain the relationship between types of shifts and democratization, ii arguing that democratic change is more likely when military loyalty shifts are fragmented. In these cases, the military acts in favor of regime change, but is less able to exercise influence over the transition compared to militaries that defect as unified organizations. To test this argument, I use new data on military responses to all major anti-regime protest movements from 1946 to 2015. I undertake a large-n, statistical analysis, use methods of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), and examine three cases to assess support for my argument and its observable implications. iii Acknowledgements Many people supported me during my time as a graduate student and in the process of completing this dissertation. With their help, I have reached the end of an experience that was at times intense and challenging but ultimately fulfilling. I must first thank my committee, which I feel incredibly fortunate to have had. Erica’s work is foundational for this dissertation and was key in motivating it. Her contribution to the field of civil resistance and commitment to it every day is inspiring. Rachel was enthusiastic about the dissertation from the start, and her sharp comments at various stages forced me to clarify my thinking and writing. Debbi has been the source of invaluable advice over these years – on both the dissertation and life in general. Her advice was critical but never discouraging. I will always appreciate in particular that she pushed me to say something bigger and bolder. These three are incomparable scholars and women. I aspire to make them proud. Over the course of my time at DU, I learned from and worked alongside many professors and students. My experiences with them were uplifting, at times humorous, and always intellectually stimulating. I am especially appreciative of my fellow PhD students who are simply the best colleagues and people. A special thanks to the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict for its financial support of my research. Its broader sponsorship of the study of civil resistance is admirable and important. Finally, I thank those people who matter the most – my family. To the Neus: thank you for your encouragement through this very long process, all the way back to my undergraduate years. To Mom and Dad: thank you for believing in me and my dreams. iv You continue to remind me that regardless of what happens next, this is an accomplishment, of which you’re very proud. To Jamie (and Tyler): I cannot imagine going through this without having you as a constant text partner – to complain to, and to celebrate with. You always being there meant so much. To Todd: you were by my side every step of this journey, and you kept me afloat with great patience and only the fewest of complaints. You cheered my hard work but showed me that life shouldn’t just be about that. With you, I can both care deeply about the world and appreciate the joy in every day. To Grandma Mouw: I finally got my paper done! v Table of Contents Chapter One: Introduction to the Dissertation .................................................................... 1 The Military’s Political Impact and Democratization ............................................ 4 Existing Explanations of Military Loyalty Shifts ................................................. 10 Military Authority and Defections ........................................................................ 14 Empirical Strategy and Justification ..................................................................... 17 Introduction to the Case Studies ............................................................... 19 Theoretical and Methodological Contributions .................................................... 23 Policy Implications ............................................................................................... 25 Roadmap for the Dissertation ............................................................................... 27 Chapter Two: Authority Threats and Military Defections ................................................ 27 General Argument ................................................................................................. 28 Competing Expectations for the Effects of Coup-Proofing ...................... 45 Alternate Explanations of Defections ....................................................... 48 Conceptualizing Military Disloyalty..................................................................... 51 Explaining Types of Military Loyalty Shifts ........................................................ 53 Conclusions and Introduction to the Quantitative Analysis ................................. 58 Chapter Three: Quantitative Research Design and Analysis ............................................ 60 Universe of Cases, Unit of Analysis, and Operationalization of Variables .......... 61 Reviewing the Hypotheses ........................................................................ 65 Explanatory Variables ............................................................................... 68 Control Variables ...................................................................................... 73 Methods................................................................................................................. 77 Results ................................................................................................................... 80 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 103 Chapter Four: Qualitative Comparative Analysis ........................................................... 108 Brief Introduction to QCA as a Method ............................................................. 110 This Chapter’s QCA Strategy ............................................................................. 111 Empirical Propositions ............................................................................ 113 Findings: Defections ........................................................................................... 115 Findings: No Defections ..................................................................................... 119 Findings: Low Level Loyalty Shifts ..................................................................
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