fst journal The Journal of the Foundation for Science and Technology

Volume 20, Number 5, April 2011

Lord Browne: Innovation in an age of austerity Statistics in Government Professor Bernard Silverman: Crime statistics and policy Sir Michael Scholar: Asserting the impartiality of official statistics Professor David Hand: A better understanding of statistics Risk management Sir John Beddington: Understanding and responding to risk Sir David Omand: Why don’t/won’t they listen? Professor Dougal Goodman: Using scientific analysis to improve risk management Professor David Spiegelhalter: An overview of the debate European research Sir Leszek Borysiewicz: The outlook for science in Europe Professor Bernard Belloc: A view from France Seán O’Reagain: Building stronger European research partnerships Behavioural change Professor David MacKay: Modelling pathways to greener energy supplies Stuart Groves: Delivering the UK’s low-carbon targets Pilgrim Beart: Encouraging changes in consumption patterns Sustainable cities Professor Paul Younger: Making old industrial cities sustainable Dr Peter White: Sustainability – what we do and how we do it Chi Onwurah: The challenge and opportunity of regeneration

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PRESIDENT Fax The Rt Hon the Lord Jenkin of Roding 020 7321 2221 Email VICE PRESIDENTS [email protected] The Earl of Shannon Sir Brian Jenkins GBE Editor COUNCIL Sir John Enderby CBE FRS CHAIRMAN Production Editor The Earl of Selborne GBE FRS Simon Napper The President of the Royal Society Sir Paul Nurse PRS FMedSci Sub-editors The President, The Royal Academy of Engineering The Lord Browne of Madingley FREng FRS Wendy Barnaby, Judy McBride, The President, The British Academy Sir Adam Roberts KCMG PBA The President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh The Lord Wilson of Tillyorn KT GCMG PRSE Charles Wenz The President, The Academy of Medical Sciences Sir John Bell FRS PMedSci HonFREng Design and layout The President, The Science Council Sir Tom McKillop FRS FRSE FMedSci James McQuat Chairman, EngineeringUK Dr Paul Golby FREng Chairman, The Arts and Humanities Research Council Sir Alan Wilson FBA FRS Chairman, The Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Sir Tom Blundell FRS FMedSci www.foundation.org.uk Chairman, The Economic and Social Research Council Dr Alan Gillespie CBE Chairman, The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Mr John Armitt CBE FREng Chairman, The Medical Research Council Sir John Chisholm FREng FIEE Chairman, The Natural Environment Research Council Mr Edmund Wallis FREng Chairman, The Science and Technology Facilities Council Professor Michael Sterling FREng Chairman, The Technology Strategy Board Dr Graham Spittle CBE Professor Polina Bayvel FREng Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci The Lord Broers FRS FREng Sir Geoffrey Chipperfield KCB Sir Graeme Davies FRSE FREng The Lord Haskel Dr Geraldine Kenney-Wallace FRSC Sir David King KB ScD FRS The Lord Krebs Kt FRS FMedSci The Rt Hon the Lord Lloyd of Berwick DL Dr Mike Lynch OBE FREng Sir Rob Margetts CBE FREng The Lord May of Oxford OM AC Kt FRS FMedSci The Rt Hon Sir Brian Neill The Baroness O’Neill of Bengarve CBE FBA HonFRS FMedSci The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS HonFREng The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt FRS Dr Peter Ringrose The Lord Soulsby of Swaffham Prior FMedSci The Lord Sutherland of Houndwood KT FBA FRSE Sir Mark Walport FMedSci The Baroness Wilcox Sir Peter Williams CBE FRS FREng The Lord Willis of Knaresborough Dr Robert Hawley CBE DSc FRSE FREng (Deputy Chairman) Mr Patrick McHugh (Honorary Secretary) Mr Tony Quigley (Honorary Treasurer)

CHIEF EXECUTIVE Professor Dougal Goodman FREng

Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions of contributors to FST journal. © 2011 The Foundation for Science and Technology. ISSN 1475-1704 fst journal Volume 20, Number 5, April 2011 contents

THE COUNCIL OF THE FOUNDATION fst inside front cover journal The Journal of the Foundation update for Science and T e chnology Volume 20, Number 5, April 2011 First Technology and Innovation Centre announced; grasping the opportunities of IT; Lord Browne: Innovation in an age of austerity visa restrictions to hit universities; crucial year for infrastructure; ...... 2. Statistics in Government Professor Bernard Silverman: Crime statistics and policy Sir Michael Scholar: Asserting the impartiality of official statistics Professor David Hand: A better understanding of statistics Risk management guest Editorial Sir John Beddington: Understanding and responding to risk Sir David Omand: Why don’t/won’t they listen? Professor Dougal Goodman: Using scientific analysis to improve The role of innovation in an age of austerity risk management Professor David Spiegelhalter: An overview of the debate European research Lord Browne ...... 3. Sir Leszek Borysiewicz: The outlook for science in Europe Professor Bernard Belloc: A view from France Seán O’Reagain: Building stronger European research partnerships Behavioura l change statistics in government Professor David MacKay: Modelling pathways to greener energy supplies Stuart Groves: Delivering the UK’ s low-carbon targets Pilgrim Beart: Encouraging changes in consumption patterns Crime statistics: how these can guide policy Sustainable cities Professor P a ul Y o unger: Making old industrial cities sustainable Dr P e ter White: Sustainability – what we do and how we do it Professor Bernard Silverman...... 4 Chi Onwura h: The challenge and opportunity of regenera tion

T H E F O U N D A T I O N F O R S C I E N C E A N D Asserting the impartiality of official statistics fs t TE C H N O L O G Y Sir Michael Scholar...... 5. A better understanding of statistics www.foundation.org.uk Professor David Hand ...... 7 carries reports on all risk management Foundation meetings. Understanding and responding to risk Sir John Beddington...... 8 Why don’t/won’t they listen? Sir David Omand...... 9 Using scientific analysis to improve risk management Professor Dougal Goodman...... 10. An overview of the debate Professor David Spiegelhalter...... 12. european research The outlook for science in Europe Sir Leszek Borysiewicz ...... 13 A view from France Professor Bernard Belloc...... 14. Building stronger European research partnerships Seán O’Reagain...... 15. behavioural change Modelling pathways to greener energy supplies Professor David MacKay...... 16 Delivering the UK’s low-carbon targets Stuart Groves...... 17. Encouraging changes in consumer consumption patterns Pilgrim Beart...... 18. sustainable cities Making old industrial cities sustainable Professor Paul Younger...... 20. Sustainability: what we do and how we do it Dr Peter White...... 21 The challenge and opportunity of regeneration Chi Onwurah MP...... 22.

events ...... 24 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol.20 (5) update

Visa restrictions to hit First Technology and Innovation Centre announced universities The Government announced the crea- Innovation (Wilton & Sedgefield); and A group of 16 university vice-chancellors, tion of the country’s first Technology and WMG (University of Warwick). including those of Bristol, Glasgow, Sussex Innovation Centre (TIC) in mid-March. This is the first of a network of and Birmingham, have publicly expressed The High Value Manufacturing TIC will Technology and Innovation Centres that their “profound concern at the damage that be formed from a group of research and will be established by the Technology would be caused to the UK economy and technology facilities from across the coun- Strategy Board with over £200 million of to [their] universities if the Government’s try. Government investment overall. Other proposals to reduce the number of inter- The new TIC will provide an inte- centres will be established in technology national students coming to the UK are grated capability and embrace all areas of high growth potential. implemented”. forms of manufacture using metals Announcing the new venture, In a letter published in The Observer and composites, in addition to proc- Business Secretary Vince Cable said: at the beginning of March, the President ess manufacturing technologies and “Manufacturing is vital to the country’s of Universities UK, Exeter University’s bio-processing. It will draw on excel- economic stability and our potential to Professor Steve Smith, and his colleagues lent university research to accelerate the achieve growth. It generates £140 bil- argue that: “International students coming commercialisation of new and emerging lion a year, accounting for 55 per cent of to universities contribute more than £5 bil- manufacturing technologies. The seven total UK exports – but it has consider- lion each year to the UK economy through centres are: Advanced Manufacturing ably greater potential. The investment tuition fees and off-campus expenditure. Research Centre (Rotherham); Nuclear in the new centre will further bridge the Reductions in student numbers will lead to Advanced Manufacturing Research gap between universities and businesses, reductions in income and jobs. Centre (Rotherham); Manufacturing helping to commercialise the outputs of “Without international students, many Technology Centre (Coventry); Advanced Britain’s world-class research base.” university courses, particularly science Forming Research Centre (University of www.innovateuk.org/deliveringin- and engineering ones, may no longer be Strathclyde); National Composite Centre novation/technology-and-innovation- viable. This will in turn reduce the courses (University of Bristol); Centre for Process centres.ashx available to UK students. International stu- dents bring extensive cultural and political benefits to the UK. When they return to Grasping the opportunities from IT their countries at the end of their studies, they become cultural and economic ambas- Despite spending around £16 billion per while facilitating rapid response and sadors for the UK. At a time of financial annum, Whitehall and Westminster often innovation at the front line. The taskforce austerity, this issue is of immeasurable see IT as a necessary evil: a risk to be describes these twin tracks as ‘platform’ importance to the UK.” mitigated rather than an opportunity to and ‘agile’. This report demonstrates that www.guardian.co.uk/theobserver/2011/ be exploited, according to a report from by implementing both of these elements, mar/05/letters-international-student-cuts the Institute of Governance. government could see cost and time sav- System Error: fixing the flaws in gov- ings while delivering a more effective and ernment IT was prepared by a high-level flexible service. ‘Crucial year’ for taskforce commissioned by the Institute Sir Ian Magee, Chair of the task- infrastructure for Government. The report sets out force and Senior Research Fellow at the the case for a new approach to IT in the Institute for Government, noted: “The Crucial decisions need to be made this year public sector. It concludes that this needs possibilities IT offers for wholly trans- in order to deliver low carbon energy for to emphasise adaptability and flexibility forming people’s lives increase exponen- the UK according to National Grid chief while retaining the benefits of scale and tially with each passing year. executive, Steve Holliday. collaboration across government. The “The good news is that we are con- Speaking to The Royal Academy of report concludes that it is necessary to vinced there is a much better way forward Engineering at the beginning of March, tackle two important aspects simultane- for Government IT.” Holliday warned that the UK faces a pivot- ously – delivering government-wide www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/ al year as decisions loom on replacing age- efficiencies of scale and interoperability publications/23/system-error ing critical assets with new infrastructure to enable the UK to cut carbon dioxide lev- New ‘scientific powers’ emerging els by a third ahead of the 2020 deadline. He said: “We cannot underestimate the China, Brazil and India are emerging as globally is now second only to the United scale of the engineering challenge that will major scientific powers to rival the tradi- States. be needed to deliver a sustainable energy tional ‘scientific superpowers’ of the USA, The publication data analysed by the future - one which I believe is going to lead Western Europe and Japan, according report showed changes in the share of to a renaissance in engineering.” to a new report from The Royal Society. the world’s authorship of research papers He believes the targets are “ambitious The report also identified some rapidly between the periods 1993-2003 and 2004- and demanding” as a quarter of the UK’s emerging scientific nations not tradition- 2008. Although the USA still leads, its energy plants will be retired by 2020. He ally associated with a strong science base, share of global authorship has fallen from stressed that the UK must become less including Iran, Tunisia and Turkey. 26 per cent to 21 per cent. China has reliant on coal and embrace wind power, The report, Knowledge, Networks and risen from sixth to second place, its share nuclear options plus carbon capture and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in of authorship rising from 4.4 per cent to storage technologies. the 21st century, analysed a wide variety 10.2 per cent. The UK remains in third “The biggest increase will be in wind of data, including trends in the number place, although its share has fallen slightly power with current plans set to target 15 of scientific publications produced by all from 7.1 per cent to 6.5 per cent. per cent of the energy mix by 2030.” countries. It found that China’s share in http://royalsociety.org/policy/reports/ www.raeng.org.uk the total number of articles published knowledge-networks-nations

2 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) guest editorial Innovation in a time of austerity John Browne

hese are challenging times undergraduate engineer we are promot- for the UK. Following a deep ing a new experience of learning, richly and painful recession, we are informed by the practical activity of solv- now going through a period of ing real multidisciplinary problems with Tunprecedented fiscal discipline. Alongside the assistance of experienced engineers. addressing the deficit, the Government’s Another key issue is culture. We must priority must be economic growth. The do much more to inspire and attract UK’s investment in world-class research young people to engineering from a wide has a crucial role to play in providing range of backgrounds. We need to identi- the knowledge base for the high-value, fy and support great ambassadors for our high-tech businesses and industries of profession, encouraging them to get out the future. and communicate – through the media, Blue-skies scientific research is impor- in schools and in colleges. tant, not least because we do not know The decisions to be made on UK where the next ‘great idea’ will come from. research are part of a wider policy and The Lord Browne of However, within a balanced research port- regulatory environment that must pro- Madingley is President folio, the UK can benefit from increasing mote our capacity to compete. The Royal of the Royal Academy of the proportion of research that is likely to Academy of Engineering will continue Engineering and a Fellow deliver short- to medium-term economic to play its part, alongside Government benefit. We must prioritise research that and our partners in engineering busi- of the Royal Society. He results in: a technology lead for the UK; ness and industry, to support the excel- joined the Board of The the creation of a new industry; substantial lent research, the engineering skills base British Petroleum Company enhancements in an existing industry; and the policy framework that will drive plc in September 1991 reduced costs of health and care provi- innovation, growth and – ultimately – an sion; or a reduction in the UK’s carbon economy that is robust, sustainable and as a Managing Director. emissions. balanced. ☐ He was appointed Group There must also be more empha- Chief Executive on June sis on the mechanisms for commercial 10, 1995. Following the exploitation of scientific and engineering research. The UK needs to get better at merger of BP and Amoco, turning input into impact, translating he became Group Chief the fruits of our investment in research Executive of the combined into useful, wealth-creating products and group on December 31, services. The UK cannot afford the cur- 1998 until 1 May 2007. He rent size of its research spending if it does not generate successful high-tech compa- was appointed a Trustee nies from it. of the Tate Gallery on 1 Achieving this will be a challenge. August 2007 and Chair of However, we start from a position of the Trustees on 26 January strength. Britain is already a leading global innovator and manufacturer. We 2009. He was knighted in are strong in many industries but par- 1998 and made a life peer ticularly in micro-processing, aerospace, in 2001. life sciences and creative design. We have world-class research facilities, including three universities in the world’s Top Ten. The Technology Strategy Board is driving progress and new Technology Innovation Centres promise to acceler- ate the pace of technology transfer from universities to industry. Creating a workforce with the skills that employers need is another urgent priority. At the Royal Academy of Engineering, we are working with industry and Government to encour- The London Engineering Project promotes age more young people into a career as the subject to students in the capital’s skilled engineering technicians. For the schools. fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) 3 statistics in Government

A key tool in Government decision-making is statistical evidence. On World Statistics Day, 20 October 2010, the Foundation for Science and Technology debated how effectively that tool is being employed. Crime statistics: how these can guide policy Bernard Silverman

t is hardly surprising that crime that low-level incidents are usually statistics have been the focus of so Professor Bernard dealt with by school authorities and are much attention. Every citizen and Silverman FRS is Chief not recorded as crimes by the police. organisation is affected (or potentially Scientific Adviser to • ‘Norms-based’ applies an explicit set of affected) by crime. Gaining a good overall the Home Office. In normative rules that excludes relatively I this role he provides picture of short- and long-term levels and minor incidents. These rules were de- independent scientific trends in crime of all types requires sub- veloped from the findings of qualitative advice and leads Home tle methodology that makes use of both Office Science, which research with children that informed administrative and survey approaches. includes Home Office Statistics. the development of the survey. Two areas that show the vital importance He holds the title of Professor • ‘Victim-perceived’ asks the victim if of good statistics are crimes against young of Statistics at the University of they think an incident was a crime. people and cyber-crime. Oxford, and has served as President of the Royal Statistical Society and The difference in results yielded by these Crimes against young people as Council Member of the Royal different definitions is remarkable (see The British Crime Survey (BCS) is one of Society. Figure 1). ‘All in law’ leads to an estimate the main inputs in the production of crime of over two million crimes a year, but only statistics, but at present it covers only about one-fifth of these are perceived crimes among adults. However, there are antisocial underpins our attitude to many by their victims as crimes. This shows a number of areas of crime where young social and political questions, and once we clearly how crime statistics for under-16s people are disproportionately affected start to count something, we are prompted force us to consider much more funda- and one needs to count younger victims to think about it more deeply. mental issues than just the question of to get a fuller picture. For example, the The BCS experimental approach tack- how much crime against young people modal age group for mobile phone theft les this matter head on by considering goes unreported. in 2007-08 was 14‑17, and the number of four possible definitions, illustrated by the thefts from people aged 10‑13 was equal to examples in Table 1: Cybercrime that from people aged over 55. The BCS • ‘All in law’ counts all incidents that are Cybercrime is another area where statistics is therefore considering how to extend its crimes in a strict legal sense, such as raise new questions. For example, if your coverage to crime victims aged under 16. the two crimes committed by those credit card details are stolen, sold online The first experimental statistics on crime brothers in their garden. and used fraudulently, the bank will usu- against this group were released, together • ‘All in law outside school’ excludes ally meet the losses and issue you with a with a call for further consultation, on 17 incidents occurring in school. This is a new card, so you may not consciously feel June 2010. rough approximation to the approach that you yourself have been a victim of One of the most interesting issues raised by this experimental release of 2.5 data was the simple question: what is a crime? Suppose that an 11-year-old 2 punches his 13-year-old brother on the nose in a scuffle in the back garden, and 1.5 the 13-year-old kicks him back on the 1 knee, breaking the skin. The 11-year-old limps back into the house and complains 0.5 to his mother, who says, “Did you hit him first? In that case shut up and don’t 0 d d do it again.” ictim All inla w Norms V From a legal point of view two quite base In Law out rceive serious crimes have been committed. How, of School Pe as statisticians, do we address this issue? It is not simply a question of deciding how to count crime; the ontological issue of Figure 1. Annual figures (millions) for crimes against young people in BCS Experimental what we consider to be criminal or even Statistics on Victimisation of Children Aged 10 to 15, 2010.

4 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) statistics in Government

Examples of types of incident reported by children (for illustra- All in law outside Victim tive purposes only; these particular incidents were not necessarily All in law Norms-based school perceived actually reported). At school, a child has their dinner money of 50 pence taken from them by someone who intended to steal the money. The money ✓ X X X is returned some time later. The child considers the incident just something that happens and not a crime. At school, a child has a favourite inexpensive toy taken from them on purpose and it is not returned. The child considers the incident ✓ X X ✓ a crime. In the street, a child is deliberately pushed and shoved but sustains no injuries. The child considers the incident just something that ✓ X ✓ X happens and not a crime. At home, two siblings are playing and one of them deliberately smashes the other’s toy. The child who has their toy smashed con- ✓ X ✓ X siders the incident wrong, but not a crime. At school, two children get into an argument and one hits the other, giving them a nose bleed. The injured child considers the incident ✓ ✓ X X just something that happens. At school, a child’s trainers are stolen from a school changing room. ✓ ✓ X ✓ The child considers the incident a crime. In the park, a child is punched and kicked by another child and sustains scratches and bruising. The child considers the incident ✓ ✓ ✓ X wrong, but not a crime. At a children’s party, a child has a hand-held video game stolen after leaving it unattended. The child considers the incident a ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ crime. In the high street, a child has their mobile phone stolen from their ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ pocket. The child considers the incident a crime.

Table 1. Crime and young people: what counts as crime? a crime. In 2009-10 the police recorded construct a taxonomy of cybercrime. The area of child victimisation, this is a domain 27,139 cheque and card frauds, but data statistics will give us an impetus to do that where intelligent use of statistical thinking from both the UK Cards Association and and a proper taxonomy will give us an and strategy has a really important part to the BCS show that there are millions of impetus to work out the right ways of tack- play in helping policy makers to under- fraudulent transactions each year. We ling it. Once we have a good taxonomy, stand and clarify the real picture. have not quite yet worked out how to we can develop robust ways of measuring These two different areas, crime against count cyber-crime; indeed, we have not it as well. young people and cybercrime, give a taste really worked out what to count. Given the current debate about the of the richness of the contribution that sta- How can statistics help? If we decide to reasons for changes in levels of crime, tistics can make. They indicate the deeper count something we have to think about assessing not only the level of cybercrime issues that have to be considered if crime what it really is. So a very good first step but also the efficacy of interventions in the statistics are to produce measures that are – which is not as easy as it sounds – is to cyber-domain is very important. As in the both reasonable and trustworthy. ☐ Asserting the impartiality of official statistics Michael Scholar here was a strong feeling a few statistics were not being manipulated by Public mistrust years ago that ‘something need- ministers, while three out of five thought What leads people to mistrust official ed to be done’ about official sta- there was some dishonesty about the way statistics? The answer is complex. People tistics. People had become mis- in which official statistics were collected remember episodes in the past which Ttrustful of them and wanted them put on or published. The Statistics Authority was suggested that official numbers had been an independent footing, as had happened created in April 2008 to change that situ- manipulated for political purposes – for with the Bank of England in relation to ation and to give people reason, through example, the 18 re-definitions of unem- monetary policy. Surveys showed that the Authority’s actions and words, to trust ployment in the 1980s and 1990s, each only one-in-six people believed official official statistics. diminishing the total. A second rea- fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 5 statistics in Government son is the very healthy scepticism that a one-sided account of a complex statisti- some people feel about any Government Sir Michael Scholar cal picture. pronouncement. A third is the human KCB is Chair of So, the Statistics Authority has inter- propensity, especially notable within the the UK Statistics vened publicly when it has seen evidence media, to take those in authority down Authority. He is of political interference with, or manipu- a peg or two, which sometimes causes President of St John’s lation of, official statistics. Examples College Oxford as people to lose sight of the notions of include statistics on knife crime, migra- well as a Pro-Vice-Chancellor impartiality and objectivity. There may tion, the gender pay gap and violent of the University. He was previ- be a type of innumeracy in the popula- crime. We recognise that interventions ously Permanent Secretary of the tion that results in some people being Department of Trade and Industry may have had a perverse effect in the totally bewildered by – and mistrustful and Permanent Secretary to the short term by diminishing trust in official of – numbers. Finally, people may have Welsh Office. Sir Michael has held statistics. Yet the longer-term effect will, I unrealistic expectations of what statistics posts as a Research Fellow at St am sure, be beneficial, not least by mate- can tell us. John’s College, Cambridge, and an rially strengthening the positions of pro- On this last point, I strongly support Assistant Lecturer in Philosophy at fessional statisticians within Government the initiative taken by David Hand and Leicester University. departments. the Royal Statistical Society to establish To take one example, we intervened a 10-year statistical literacy campaign, when we became aware that local crime called ‘GetStats’, which was launched on them to strengthen the authority of statistics were being disseminated in such World Statistics Day, 20 October 2010. the National Statistician over the stat- a way that they were likely to mislead This campaign is designed to build sta- isticians working across Government the public. Appropriate account was tistical understanding across society and departments. I asked them to involve not taken of changes in recording prac- to ensure that we get the most out of our the Statistics Authority in decisions to tices during the period of comparison, data. I believe that campaigns such as reduce Government expenditure on sta- and there was no explanation of the this will play a vitally important part in tistics and to tighten up the rules for effect these changes may have had. The tackling innumeracy and bewilderment, pre-release access – these are the rules extent to which these statistics had been thereby helping us to give people more that allow ministers and their political disseminated – to all types of national, reason to have trust and confidence in advisers to see official statistics 24 hours regional and local media – was of great official statistics, through understanding before they are published. concern to us. and knowledge. I had a friendly reply at the time The Statistics Authority attempts to from David Cameron. Yet I have since Appropriate measurement assist the wide range of users in guiding been told officially by the Cabinet Office This intervention re-ignited debate about their actions and their understanding minister that, although the Government the best, or most appropriate, long-term of both British society and economy. It supports our work, it does not agree to statistical measurement of violent crime. aims to maintain high professional stand- any of these proposals. That is a disap- It also encouraged a proliferation of anal- ards in the production of statistics, and pointment. However, we have decided yses using the available data, some more it tries to ensure that statistics are well to collect as much information as we can statistically robust than others. However, explained (including their strengths and about the forthcoming cuts in statistical by re-launching this debate we encour- weaknesses) so that they are meaningful capability and output, and to report any aged those who wish to use and dissemi- and helpful to those who need them. We concerns we have to ministers and to nate these statistics to do so responsibly, can shorten this to a threefold mantra Parliament. It might, for example, tran- explaining what the statistics show and – right statistics, right methods, right spire that a modest and apparently inof- what they do not. explanation. The more we can achieve fensive reduction in one department’s sta- We proposed the establishment of these objectives and aims, the more the tistical output would do disproportionate a non-executive board to supervise the trustworthiness of UK official statistics damage to another’s or to the statistical production of crime statistics and pro- will increase and, so also, the degree of system as a whole. vide much-needed independent reassur- trust that people actually place in these ance. We also proposed that statistical statistics. In my view, the task is unam- Demonstrating independence publications on crime and criminal jus- biguously worthwhile, one which needs The Statistics Authority clearly needs to tice should be brought together so the to be undertaken and one in which we demonstrate the independence of offi- non-expert user can understand the flow absolutely must succeed. cial statistics from political interference. of offences and offenders through the Improvements in all three parts of the It is easy to exaggerate the scale of the system. Finally, we recommended the mantra is a long, hard job, which can only problem here. Government statisticians production of a regular commentary by be achieved by statisticians themselves. are professionals whose impartiality and the National Statistician on the statistics It is particularly difficult when statistical objectivity, in my 40 years experience of themselves, with information on the dif- budgets will be, very probably, sharply Whitehall, is respected by policy makers ferent sources of the data and discussion reduced. Statistics must, of course, take and administrative colleagues. Yet there about the relative strengths and weak- its share of public expenditure reduc- is always a temptation (or people think nesses of the statistics. These proposals tions, but we must never forget that good there is a temptation) for ministers or are the beginning of a dialogue. I hope statistics are vital if we are ever to know their political advisers to suggest changes that everyone with an interest will join the effects of new Government policies – to the date of a statistical release, its us in this dialogue and that the end result on society and the economy. presentation or format, or some of the will be a growth of trust not only in crime I wrote to the leaders of the major definitions. There is also the risk of selec- statistics, but in other types of official parties before the election. I asked tive quotations from unpublished data or statistics as well. ☐

6 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) statistics in Government A better understanding of statistics David Hand sometimes describe statistics as Misconceptions providing a window on the world. Professor David Hand Why are there such widespread misconcep- By this I mean that statistics reveal FBA is President of tions about statistics? Aside from lack of structures, properties, characteristics the Royal Statistical trust, two possible reasons are innumeracy and relationships that are otherwise con- Society and Chief and ‘number phobia’. A third is a failure I Scientific Adviser cealed. However, just as looking through to appreciate that statistics are supposed at Winton Capital a window does not tell us everything to change as time elapses or as more data Management. His about the world outside, so statistics can- become available. If a statistic is updated, research interests include multivari- not tell us everything. We have to decide ate statistics, classification methods, this is not the mark of a poor initial analysis where to focus our attention, and from pattern detection, the interface but of an increasingly refined measurement which angles we should peer. between statistics and computing procedure or more data. This question of perspective is critical. and the foundations of statistics. A fourth factor may be a failure to rec- Different perspectives reveal different ognise how wide the impact of statistics is. things about the world and can some- Without statistics we could neither create times seem contradictory. For example, way that is trusted.” But is that quite right? nor monitor housing policies: we would I recall hovering between amused and Bernard Madoff explained his investment not know where the greatest needs were, appalled by a university ranking scheme results in a way that was trusted. It did not where to locate a new retail outlet, how our which included as an input variable the mean that they should have been trusted, local schools or hospitals were doing, or number of papers published in Nature or that they should not have been sub- how to adapt our transport policies. And and Science: this consequently gave a jected to rigorous examination. we would not know whether crime was very low rank to the London School of increasing or decreasing. Economics! Bernard Silverman’s outline Critical assessment The role of the media in helping the of crime statistics illustrates perfectly the What we really need to promote is a criti- public understand statistics is critical. The potential for confusion when different cal assessment of statistics in general. Sir onus is on the media to recognise that definitions of crime are used. Michael Scholar argued that we need to rather than bending the truth to permit a The key message is that different meas- give people more reason to have trust and pseudo-answer that is readily comprehen- urements capture different things. And it confidence in official statistics, through sible without effort, it is necessary to make follows that, unless one has a highly spe- understanding and knowledge. That is the effort to understand the unbent truth. cific aim in mind, it is probably dangerous the key: we need to enable people to And the public includes politicians. I to rely on a single summary statistic. I am recognise the ‘building blocks’ but also have raised issues such as the importance sure you are all familiar with the parable to have elementary building expertise, so of the census with representatives of both of the elephant and the blind men: each that they can see for themselves that the the previous and the present administra- of them had an entirely different notion statistical structures are sound. tion. Census data will be used to guide the of what an elephant was, based on their Critical assessment includes an evalu- distribution of a trillion pounds of public individual limited perspectives. ation of the source of the statistics. One money to local authorities over the next It is certainly true that focusing exclu- hopes that the public recognises and 10 years, at a cost of less than one-half of sively on a single perspective leads us appreciates the painstaking rigour that one-tenth of one per cent of that amount. down the slope of Goodhart’s Law, which goes into the collection of Government That sort of efficiency ratio is one most states that any observed statistical regu- statistics by official statisticians. And one commercial organisations would be proud larity will tend to collapse once pressure might hope the public would be able to to achieve. is placed upon it for control purposes. It contrast this with the bizarre lack of rig- It is vital that the view from the window also means that non-targeted aspects of our that goes into such things as man-of- of statistics is not obscured by uncoor- performance may deteriorate to unac- the-year polls. One might also hope that dinated cuts in statistical measurement ceptable levels. Recall the classic example the public would appreciate the absurdity across different departments. There of the nail factory that met its target of of university league tables based on stu- can be few issues that span Government weight of nails by producing a single dent surveys in which the respondents are departments in the way that statistics does, gigantic nail. self-selected. so a piecemeal approach to cuts courts The Statistics Authority’s 2010 report So the emphasis needs to shift from disaster. Overcoming Barriers to Trust in Crime trust towards critical assessment, the lat- It is perhaps even more important for Statistics: England and Wales says: “Having ter being in reality a precursor to the politicians to understand the view from two different sources can undoubtedly former. the window of statistics than for the wider cause confusion ... but the answer is not to One can mistrust statistics because one public. Yet anyone who is not educated in change either of them fundamentally. The doubts their accuracy. One can also mis- statistical understanding is staring at a win- two sets of statistics throw different lights trust the intended use to which statistical dow with the blinds shut. Our ‘GetStats’ on the incidence and experience of crime descriptions will be put. This ‘conspiracy campaign aims to promote that under- and we need both of them...” It goes on to theory’ of Government statistics needs to standing. Let us hope we can achieve that say: “It is the job of the professional stat- be tackled by helping people understand understanding before we progress too far istician in Government to filter the signal the uses to which statistics are put, and the into the 21st century! ☐ from the noise and explain the results in a benefits that will derive from them. GetStats Campaign – www.getstats.org.uk fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 7 risk management

Should government science advisers be more involved in risk assessment? Are there parallels in the business world from which lessons can be learned? The questions were discussed at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 10 November 2010. Understanding and responding to risk John Beddington

hat happens to change a the election campaign which complicated risk into reality and how Sir John Beddington matters a little, but that could happen in does the Government CMG FRS is any emergency. Sometimes the Committee respond? I will focus on Government Chief was chaired by the Prime Minister, some- Scientific Adviser, three areas: on civil contingencies; on cli- times by the appropriate Secretary of State W Government Office mate change; and on the risks in finan- for the lead department. of Science. His main cial markets (which is the subject of a research interests Sub-groups set up under the Scientific forthcoming study by the Government’s are the application of biological Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) Foresight team). and economic analysis to problems tackled the aviation and engineering issues The 2010 edition of the UK National of natural resource management – and there were also meteorology, geol- Risk Register still shows pandemic disease including: fisheries, pest control, ogy and volcanology sub-groups. Input as having the highest combination of prob- wildlife management and the con- from the Met Office (part of the MOD), ability and impact (Figure 1). Other major trol of disease. He has been at the British Geographical Survey (part of threats include terrorist attacks on crowd- Imperial College since 1984, where Natural Environment Research Council) ed places and on transport, severe weather, he has headed the main depart- and experts in the Research Councils and coastal flooding and animal disease. ments dealing with environmental academia was key. Engaging a wide com- How is this register compiled? First, science and technology. munity of experts has enabled this group to assess the likelihood of this occurring, to explore the risks from further volcanic historical evidence, predictability (with reasonable. Next to Eyjafjallajökull, the eruptions. The event lasted a relatively weather events for example) and expert volcano that exploded in April, is Katla. short time: however, the SAGE convened advice are taken into account. The plausi- If this erupted, something in the order of at the time of the swine flu outbreak lasted bility of such an incident also needs to be 30 times more material may be ejected for a significant period of about six or considered under the headings of intelli- into the atmosphere. There are also other seven months. gence, capability, intent and vulnerability. events which have a very low probability Second, there are the likely impacts: the but would have enormous impact, such as Climate change number of deaths and casualties, the extent an eruption the scale of the 1883 eruption Climate change is a widely discussed topic of social and economic disruption as well of Krakatoa. but that does not make it any less relevant. as, interestingly, psychological aspects (i.e. Now there are many volcanoes. The There is enormous variation in the UK’s the way in which the public reacts to these risk only becomes actual when the volcano mean temperature. Yet as we go through problems). erupts and (in the case of Iceland) there the period up to 2007, the occurrence of The concept of a ‘reasonable worst case’ is a north to north-westerly wind caus- cold weather becomes significantly less fre- may need refining. The reasonable worst ing significant disruption to air space. I quent while hot weather becomes more so. case for the swine flu epidemic in 2009 am focussing specifically on risk here, so The Hadley Centre has put together was built from a combination of what hap- I will not go into the way regulation then a report – at the request of the Foreign pened in the epidemic in 1918 and what comes into play – although that is clearly Office – about the global impact of a 4°C H5N1 might produce. This delivered a important. rise in temperature. The assessment was figure in the order of 650-750,000 deaths In the last couple of years, people in made by looking at something like 27 dif- – the press took this as a prediction while the academic and industrial communities ferent models and realisations of models, in reality the total figure was a couple of have been invited to regular reviews to dis- from the most optimistic to the most pes- orders of magnitude lower. cuss general scientific or engineering ques- simistic. The most optimistic would give a tions. The most recent of these ‘Blackett rise in the Arctic of, at best, 8°C; and worst Volcanoes Reviews’ looked at low-probability/high 16°C. How can this be taken into account The 2010 National Risk Register did not impact events like Krakatoa. in planning strategy? include volcanoes. Yet there are around 30 So that is how risk is assessed. The If we put the risks of climate change active volcanic systems in Iceland. There next question is what should be done onto a normal risk matrix (I am not aware are about 25 eruptions every century, so when the risk becomes reality? Taking this has yet been done), in terms of the on average about once every four years. the Icelandic volcano again – the major likelihood that sea levels will rise or the A significant eruption might be expected impact was nothing to do with human or risk to forests, I wonder if that would con- every 20 years or so. There are also animal health, but with disruption at travel vey more information than the worst case periodicities which indicate that the last 50 plans being significantly interrupted. The projections we often use? It might facili- years have been relatively quiescent. With UK Civil Contingencies Committee was tate discussions of the relative likelihood so many volcanoes in Iceland, including convened in the Cabinet Office Briefing of these events and their relative impact in this in the risk matrix would seem to be Room (COBR). This was in the middle of particular regions.

8 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) risk management

larger volumes is likely – just in terms of maintaining stable networks – to face chal- lenges. The 6 May 2010 ‘Flash Crash’ saw Pandemic human major US equity indices fall 5-6 per cent disease Non-pandemic human disease in a matter of minutes, before rebounding almost as quickly. For a very short period Inland flooding Coastal of time, some stocks were valued at effec- flooding tively 1 cent while other stocks were valued Major industrial accidents at over $100,000. This short event led to Major transport Attacks on crowded almost $70 billion being withdrawn from accidents places Attacks on Non-conventional transport US equity funds in the immediate after- Cyber attacks attacks lative impact infrastructure Severe math, and continues to influence investor

Re weather Attacks on confidence today. infrastructure Investigations into the event have pro- posed various explanations. While ‘high- Animal frequency trading’ has been absolved of disease responsibility for causing the crash, the Cyber attacks: data confidentiality interaction of algorithms in uncertain or unpredictable market conditions raises serious questions for financial markets Relative likelihood and all who depend on them. The Foresight project is examining Figure 1. Risk matrix. Source: National Risk Register 2010 Edition (definitions appear in the future of computer trading in finan- the report). cial markets and their financial stability. High-frequency financial trading figure is over a half. Economists, physicians, sociologists, com- The Foresight study is investigating how This has resulted in stock exchanges puter scientists, mathematicians, investors, computer trading (including both algo- competing to attract traders by offering traders and other experts will ask, and be rithmic and high-frequency trading) is ever lower latencies. The London Stock asked, important questions about how this likely to evolve in the next 10 years. The Exchange-owned Turquoise platform is likely to evolve. volume of equities traded through com- recently claimed to offer the fastest trading In our world, there will always be puter-automated trading – taking place at speeds in the world; other exchanges are problems, so there will always be risks and high speed and with little human involve- quick on their heels. a need to address those risks. As Cicero ment – has increased dramatically in the What does this mean for the broader said: probabilities direct the conduct of a past few years. Today, over one third of financial system, or, indeed, does this mat- wise man. ☐ the UK equity trading volume is gener- ter to anyone outside ‘finance’? Any com- ated through high-frequency, automated puterised system (or even just a portion) www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/ computer trading while in the USA this operating at ever higher speeds and ever national-risk-register Why don’t/won’t they listen? David Omand

refrain often heard among Sir David Omand explore the ‘what if’ questions. And those frustrated by resist- GCB is Visiting intelligence can help provide strategic ance from those in authority Professor, War Studies notice of possible futures – not predic- to accepting scientific, risk- Department, King’s tions, but possibilities that can stimulate Abased analysis is ‘why don’t/won’t they College. He was the further research. listen?’ Let me draw on an unusual first UK Security and Intelligence is often fragmentary and example, that of secret intelligence, to Intelligence Coordinator, respon- incomplete (and it will sometimes even illustrate some of the complexity of the sible to the Prime Minister for the be wrong) but used sensibly it shifts the relationship between the analytical and professional health of the intelli- odds in our favour. Yet consider every- policy worlds. gence community, national counter- thing that has to go right for the policy Intelligence is itself a risk-based terrorism strategy and ‘homeland maker or military commander to act activity. Its purpose is to help optimise security’. Sir David served for seven properly on the intelligence. decision-making by reducing ignorance years on the Joint Intelligence on the part of Government, thus improv- Committee. His book, Securing the Secrets and mysteries ing the odds that security objectives can State, was published in 2010. First, there have to be data to collect be achieved. ‘out there’ and the intelligence agencies Intelligence can provide situational have to find a smart way of accessing awareness – the ‘who, what and where’ good explanation consistent with the that data. The intelligence community of the threats we face. It can help supply available facts, it may be possible to pre- has long acknowledged a distinction an explanation – answering the ques- dict, ‘what next’ or ‘where next’. Even between the ability to assess ‘secrets’ and tions ‘how’, ‘why’ and ‘what-for’. With a better, a model can be constructed to ‘mysteries’ (and there is an equivalent in fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (5) 9 risk management

Analysts Decision makers lives lost and property damaged, dis- ruption to critical infrastructure, output • Want to explain the world • Want to change the world lost, damage to domestic confidence, • Try to stick to the evidence • Will challenge the relevance of the effect on the markets (an impor- tant consideration) together with all • Will tend to caution in estimates evidence the media and electoral impact due to • Use complex language • Want options kept open the fact that we live in a parliamentary democracy. • Take the time necessary • Know that it is necessary to over-ride • Seek impartiality objections Decision makers and analysts • Need certainty in public Decision makers have a complex set of trade-offs to make in a psycho-dynamic environment distant from that of the Table 1. Psychological profiles of analysts and decision makers. Adapted from: Squaring analyst. They are liable to look at the the circle – dealing with intelligence-policy breakdowns, K L Gardiner, Intelligence and evidence in a different way because National Security 6/1 (1991). they are often different kinds of people (Table 1). Typically, the decision makers science). With a secret, the data points Second, analysts have the difficult are in that position because they chose actually exist, the problem is to access task of interpreting the fragments of a career suited to their personality – as them and interpret them. The secret intelligence. There is a great deal in doers not thinkers. They want to influ- can in principle be revealed, although the academic literature about analytic ence events, they want options but not of course circumscribed with error bars pitfalls. For example, there is ‘perse- just those suggested by the analysis. If around the answer. veration’, i.e. sticking to an hypoth- someone has come to believe they can With mysteries, the data points do esis long after fresh evidence should change the world around them for the not yet exist because, for example, the have caused re-evaluation, and ‘mirror- better, then their attitude to intelli- dictator has not yet decided whether he imaging’ when we assume the opponent gence (or to scientific evidence) may not will invade the neighbouring country or will think the same way as ourselves. appear as objective as the professional the demonstrators have not yet marched Science, of course, knows too about analyst might expect. on the Presidential Palace. There is no the ‘observer expectancy’ effect with Decision makers need to be remind- direct evidence, only inference from its resulting scandals. A reputation for ed that low risk does not mean no risk: past behaviour and from current capa- professional independence must be safe- improbable correlations of events do bilities. Yet someone must assess for the guarded – it is easier to lose than build sometimes occur, as the financial sec- decision makers the likelihood of such up again. tor has recently shown. Attempts to eventualities. Third, the assessments must be con- eliminate all risk can produce unwant- Who is best placed to carry out the veyed in an understandable form and in ed consequences creating more harm assessment of mysteries? Does the intel- sufficient time. There is little point in than good, as some counter-terrorism ligence community preserve its purity delivering the assessment the week after policies have shown. It will never be and say: “No, that is a policy matter, we the crucial decision has been taken. easy to explain risk management to the only do analysis based on the secrets we And it has to be relevant, which means public. Few ministers will relish hav- have”? If left to the policy community, that the analysts have to be very close to ing to explain publicly that there is a the risk arises that the assessment will the policy makers and the nature of the significant risk that their chosen policy unconsciously reflect the hopes of the decision, but without allowing them- will not deliver the results and yet still decision takers. At least the intelligence selves to be influenced by the desires of defend it as the best option on the bal- community should be able to apply a the policy makers. ance of probabilities. Yet levelling with robust methodology and some degree of Finally, policy makers have to under- the public about risk is necessary for peer review in coming to a judgment. If stand – and be willing to accept – the good government in a democracy. the intelligence (and scientific) commu- significance of the assessment and also Intelligence has its unique features, nities do venture judgments about ‘mys- be in a position to act upon it. Consider but I hope this highly simplified account teries’, it is essential that such assess- the kind of risks decision makers have will nevertheless resonate with those ments can be distinguished from those to take into account. Faced with threats who have to champion scientific ration- for which there is direct evidence. to our security, there are the risks of ality more widely. ☐ Using scientific analysis to improve risk management Dougal Goodman

n 2006 I exchanged correspond- evaluate the impact of low probability, not convinced that the full portfolio of ence with the Chief Secretary of the high severity events on the economy. analysis tools available were used during Treasury about systems in place, He responded by saying systems were in the management of the sharp downturn Iparticularly in HM Treasury, to place to assess such risks but I am still of 2008-2009. There is still no Chief 10 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) risk management

Assessing risk Clubs and above that reinsurance poli- Professor Dougal Senior managers need to stand back cies are bought in the global market. A Goodman FREng is from day-to-day operations and regular- substantial proportion of the cover is a Visiting Professor ly review the ‘deep downsides’ that could provided by Lloyd’s of London. The at The Risk Centre at destroy their businesses. Companies Clubs need to answer two questions – Cranfield University face multi-faceted deep downsides. how much risk should they retain and if and at the Institute Some can be quantified, others can- risk is transferred into the market how for Risk and Disaster Reduction at not: business interruption from natural much should they pay for this transfer? UCL. He is also Chief Executive of the Foundation for Science and catastrophes can be but the outrage of The Lloyd’s underwriters need to assess Technology and does consulting the public cannot. Financial failure can the risk exposures to decide what price work for the insurance sector. His occur in many ways including: loss of they should charge. Science – particu- interest in risk management began market for goods or services; loss of trust larly statistical analysis – can only go so when he was Head of Safety for BP’s in management; changes to regulatory far in answering these questions. global operations and as project frameworks; losses from natural catas- Many business problems of this kind manager for a study for the Board on trophes such as flooding. are characterised by time series with whether BP should buy reinsurance. For example, consider ship owners underlying trends but occasional, abrupt He has had a lifelong interest in the who are exposed to very large liability step jumps. Sometimes the jumps are polar regions, serving as Deputy claims from a range of events e.g. water driven by quite different processes from Director of the British Antarctic damage to a cargo of rice, polluting the the more regular events. It is these step Survey and leading many expedi- beaches with oil, killing or injuring the jumps that business managers need to be tions to the Arctic and the Antarctic. passengers or crew, or damaging har- aware of – too often managers are lulled bour facilities. Mutual Protection and into a false of security because they have Indemnity Clubs (P&I Clubs) provide not experienced a low probability, high Scientific Adviser at the Treasury. cover to ship owners for these types of severity event or because these arise Each year, the Financial Services risks. The challenge for the manager of from the set of ‘unknown unknowns’. Authority publishes an horizon-scanning a P&I Club is to manage the cash flows For example, the loss of business expe- paper – the FSA Outlook. This did hint at in and out of the Club – he or she is rienced by aviation through the closure the possibility of the financial crisis ahead managing an integrated investment and of UK air space due to the ash cloud was but the depth of the problems faced by reinsured system which will be impacted a surprise event for many managers in the banking system was under-estimated. by large, rare events from time to time. the sector, even though scientists were Afterwards the crisis was described by To manage the exposure, Club managers well aware of the possibility of such an the FSA as the result of “a self-reinforcing buy reinsurance, set investment strate- event. cycle of exuberance”. The regulator has gies, enforce an inspection regime for Too often, perceptions of risk are recommended that new risk management the vessels insured and manage litiga- framed by a belief that normal distri- systems should be put in place. How well tion. The goal is to maintain reserves butions explain most variables. For a has this been done? at an optimum level. If reserves are too normal distribution, excursions larger Most quoted companies follow the large, the ship owners complain that than two standard deviations from the Corporate Governance Code published in their funds are unnecessarily tied up; mean are rare, while in practice some July 2010; this recommends that compa- too little and they are concerned about outcomes are characterised by fat-tailed nies should improve their risk manage- unexpected extra cash calls and regula- distributions for which this is not true. ment processes. Do companies have the tors about financial failure. tools to do this and are scientific methods The reinsurance is bought in layers. Communication being applied to estimate risk? Currently a loss of $0 million to $8 mil- Analysis of the risk is not the end of the Insurers will soon be subject to a tight- lion is retained in the Club, $8 million story – communicating the outcome of a er regime for regulating how much capital to $60 million is shared between all 13 model and, importantly, the uncertain- they should hold. Solvency II puts the responsibility on management to build and use better risk management models. A natural catastrophe – the 2007 UK floods – was a wake up call to Analytical style Emotive style many companies about their resilience to natural catastrophes. There was a Engineers close call – the losses could have been Officials Politicians much worse if the Warham electricity Scientists substation had been inundated. The Pitt Review set out many recommendations to improve the response to future flood Economists events. Managers Analysts Science and engineering play an Lawyers important part in quantifying the impact and estimating the likelihood of such events. Decision makers, scientists and Intermediaries are needed to translate… engineers must work together to antici- pate such events. Figure 1. Styles of scientists and decision makers. fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (5) 11 risk management ties of the model to senior management the company – yes or no? Do I commit In summary or ministers is a major challenge. And resources to this project – yes or no? • Government and industry should there is an important question of who Should I respond to this threat – yes or share best practice in assessing low selects which risks to discuss with senior no? Is this structure safe – yes or no? probability, high severity events; management – the analyst’s filter that Sir These are all binary choices, many of • Senior managers should stand back David Omand talks about in his book, which will be made by ‘gut feel’, with from day-to-day operations and think Securing the State. the analyst’s model merely painting a about the deep downsides that could Analysts cannot make a decision picture of the context. destroy their businesses; on what is acceptable and what is Scientists and analysts need to rec- • Communication of extreme value not – such choices should be made by ognise that a well argued analytical analysis is not straightforward – a new company boards or by ministers. Yet argument may not carry the day when language for communicating risk in the senior management of a company a politician or senior manager is swayed business and government is required. or ministers are often overloaded with by other forces. Figure 1 shows the span Statistical rigour and analysis is a information; the risk adviser is but one of decision-making styles that exist in framework for discussion of risk. ☐ small cog in the machinery. The fog an organisation. An analytical argu- www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/plan/financial_risk_ of war may hide analysis of important ment will not sway a business leader outlook_2010.pdf risks. who makes decisions by gut-feel, or a www.frc.org.uk/publications/pub2526.html The manager or minister, however, politician sensitive to outrage from his www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/ is making the decisions. Should I buy constituents. library/publications/33889.aspx

An overview of the debate David Spiegelhalter

he three previous contribu- of the matter but how is it to be achieved? tors challenge us to examine Professor David Scientists and analysts trying to take an the limitations of analytical and Spiegelhalter OBE insurance-based numerical approach numerical approaches to risk. FRS is Winton know at the same time that they are rely- Professor of the Public Professor Goodman highlights the dif- ing on assumptions. This concerns the T Understanding of ficulty of communicating analyses to peo- acknowledgment of indeterminacy and Risk, University of ple who, in the end, make the decisions. ignorance. Cambridge. He is He believes we need a new language for also a Senior Scientist in the MRC Standard methods of analysis deal with this communication, but is putting great Biostatistics Unit. His background recognised, quantifiable uncertainties, store on insurance-based approaches to is in medical statistics, particularly but this is only part of the story, although risk. When people have to decide what the use of Bayesian methods in as scientists we tend to focus at this level. premiums to set, they are not concerned clinical trials, health technology A first extra step is to be explicit about with the broad range of possibilities min- assessment and drug safety. acknowledged inadequacies – things that isters and politicians have to consider. are not put into the analysis such as the The issue ultimately comes down to methane cycle in climate models. These whether we can put numbers on these such quantifications? could be called ‘indeterminacy’. We do events. The World Economic Forum’s The insurance industry’s goal of a not know how to quantify them but we Global Risk Landscape is explicit about numerical probability with which to cal- know they might be influential. their probabilities and while the Cabinet culate a premium becomes much more Yet there are even greater unknowns Office does not publish probabilities in difficult when dealing with deeper uncer- which require an essential humility. This its Risk Register they are available, at tainties. That is why I like the type of is not just ignorance about what is wrong least in broad orders of magnitude. But analysis by Renn that Sir John presented. with the model, it is an acknowledgment Sir John Beddington acknowledges that Renn comes from a social science back- that there could be a different concep- when items are added to the Register pre- ground, and employs ‘blobs’ whose rela- tual basis for our analysis, another way to cise figures may be impossible to ascribe, tive size provides a means of describing approach the problem. given the real uncertainties about out- issues where there are not only deep There will be a continuing debate comes. uncertainties but deep disputes about the about the process of communicating these Sir John also uses the phrase ‘reasona- potential consequences. This is a way of deeper uncertainties. There is of course a ble worst case’, but what does this actually acknowledging the limitations of science risk that the analysis might then be disre- mean? Can a number be put on it? Does in dealing with many really challenging garded because policy makers want more it mean 1-in-200 which the insurance issues. confidence and certainty. That would be industry tends to use? Furthermore, how Sir David Omand argues that analysts unfortunate: acknowledging uncertainty can a figure communicate the enormous have to ‘disclose fully the limitations and in science does not mean robust conclu- number of assumptions which underlie caveats of the assessment’. This is the nub sions cannot be drawn. ☐

12 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) european research

The role of coordinated research across the European Union is set to grow. The opportunities to be gained from greater UK involvement in the process were considered at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 17 November 2010. The outlook for science in Europe Leszek Borysiewicz

ollaboration in European single EU patent and a single EU patent research partnerships is often Sir Leszek Borysiewicz court, allowing small and medium sized misunderstood or viewed with FRS FRCP FMedSci enterprises (SMEs) greater flexibility, with apprehension in the UK. Yet is Vice-Chancellor greater protection for their intellectual of the University of it is fundamental to continued success in property. C Cambridge. He was science here. When the UK engages in The European Commission’s main role Chief Executive of Europe, its scientists outperform those of is to monitor the impact of these agen- the Medical Research any other nation: our scientists are more Council (MRC) from 2007 to 2010, das rather than set them. Setting them than able to compete. More constructively, and from 2001 to 2007 was at is reserved to the European Council, so UK scientists can help Europe to succeed. Imperial College London, where he the member states are intimately involved Furthermore, the opportunity to engage served as Principal of the Faculty in this agenda. Like it or not, this will with strong scientists throughout the EU of Medicine and later as Deputy influence the policies that the Research will enhance the UK’s reputation through- Rector. He was knighted in the 2001 Councils here will ultimately pursue, just out the world. for his contribution to medical edu- like their counterparts in Europe, because The EU 2020 Strategy, published in cation and research into developing that is how the programme is constructed. early 2010, recognises that Europe faces vaccines. It is not yet clear how the European many problems. It identifies structural innovation platforms will work, which weaknesses in the recession that we have means the UK has an opportunity to help just faced. There was low growth through- Europe to ensure that we all able to take shape them. The major challenges are out Europe and employment was relatively advantage of the digital era; the Innovation clear: energy, security, transport, climate, low. Ageing is rapidly catching up with Union, the major platform through which health, ageing and environment. The Europe as a major issue, along with climate, both basic and applied science will be sup- Commission is to monitor overall targets. energy and global finance. The Strategy ported, on which I shall expand further; There is a continued commitment to also recognised that Europe’s strength will and Youth On the Move which aims to dedicate 3 per cent of GDP to R&D. Many be an interdisciplinary approach and there empower younger people to engage with thought that target would disappear, but it must new ways of encouraging this. the European vision. remains – although our current perform- The European Research Area (ERA) Sustainable Growth focuses on a Europe ance does not compare favourably with the is now enshrined in European law. It that becomes much more resource-effi- USA at 2.6 per cent or Japan at 3.4 per cent. promotes the rapid movement and trac- cient, with an industrial policy for the era China too is investing and when it matches tability of research, scientific knowledge of globalisation that is supportive of the the USA’s 2.6 per cent of GDP, competition and technology. It guarantees freedom environment. will really begin. So it is vital we in Europe of movement for researchers between EU The Inclusion Agenda is needed in meet our target and quickly. states. It seeks to underpin the innovative order to retrain large numbers of indi- The UK will engage in the Innovation research that is vital for the EU by the end viduals so that they can take advantage of Union through a number of routes. Apart of the decade. the focus on innovation. It will provide from direct Government involvement, As part of Europe’s research agen- real opportunities, with a target of 40 there is RCUK (particularly the Research da there is the Seventh Framework per cent of young people entering Higher Councils’ EU group), Universities UK, Programme (FP7). The UK is very suc- Education across the EU – a challenging learned societies and other stakeholder cessful with FP7 applications, just as it is agenda indeed. groups. Individual universities will be in European Research Council applica- The Strategy also addresses the social represented in these groups as important tions. The next framework programme ill of poverty: innovation can help alleviate research providers. There are programme is already under consideration although the worst of the impacts. committees and expert groups. The I know through Research Councils UK Department for Business, Innovation and (RCUK) that many parts of the UK are not Innovation Skills (BIS) has been charged with ensur- yet actively engaged in the process. I return now to the Innovation Union, ing that feedback gets to ministers so that one of the seven flagship initiatives within they are fully informed. If the voice of UK Three objectives the Strategy. One of its aims is to help science is not heard that will not be due to The 2020 Strategy aims to allow Europe to academia and industry work more closely a failure of the structure: the fault will be create growth that fulfils three objectives, together. It therefore has a strong research ours for failing to engage. However, the being firstly smart, secondly sustainable element: science is an ‘underpinning sheer number of stakeholder groups across and thirdly inclusive. Seven flagship ini- platform’. The importance of intellectual Europe, each wanting its own voice to be tiatives support these three aims. Under property and patents is recognised. The heard, militates against effective decision- Smart Growth are: a Digital Agenda for Innovation Union has the aspiration of a making. fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 13 european research

This landscape, alongside that for in the 2020 Strategy and the European area and we should seek that role. joint funding, must be improved. The Research Area are brought to fruition. We must participate in the groups that European Science Foundation and the have been created to develop the agenda. European Heads of Research Councils UK universities and Europe At individual and group levels we need (EUROHORCs), is likely to be replaced For research-intensive UK universities to identify the right partnerships within by a new body promoting the collec- this is a major opportunity. The aspira- the EU. An ever-greater fraction of our tive interest of both research-funding and tion to increase the number of people young post-docs is looking to partner with research-performing organisations. It will with tertiary qualifications can only the EU. We need to set the foundations support member organisations in foster- improve the workforce. We are likely upon which such collaborations can really ing European research and strengthen the to have a differentiation across Europe flourish. European Research Area through direct between universities which are research- This is an opportunity: let us engage engagement with key partners. The new led and others that will concentrate on and participate. ☐ body will provide a point of contact and training. The UK must take a positive Europe 2020. http://ec.europa.eu/ engagement to ensure that the grand plans stance: we are capable of leadership in this europe2020/index_en.htm A view from France Bernard Belloc he European Research Area has we need to develop strong scientific part- been in existence for a dec- Professor Bernard nerships – it is not only to increase the ade now, but we have to ask Belloc is Higher level of European research but to link sci- continually how we can build Education and entific and economic activity. Of course, Tever-stronger scientific partnerships in Research Adviser basic research is not directly linked to Europe. The funding models for research to the President economic applications, but we need to across Europe can be very different, yet of France. He is improve the way academic research is they must be able to work together if a Professor of Economics at the transformed into innovation. If we fail in European research partnerships are to University of Toulouse, with doctor- this objective, then in less than 10 or 15 develop their full potential. ates in both economics and math- years we will be second rate. In the French system there are uni- ematics applied to economics. In Europe only 15 per cent of R&D versities, Grandes Écoles and scientific expenditure is coordinated by Europe. institutions. We separate education in studies at selective institutions like the The major funding for R&D, more than the universities from research in the sci- Grandes Écoles, Insituts Universitaires de 60 per cent, comes from individual coun- entific institutions. Between the two Technologie (which are integrated with tries – the UK, France, Germany and two lie the Grandes Écoles which are outside universities) and Sections de Techniciens or three other countries. So we need to the system, although a number of them Supérieurs (which are parts of Lycées), etc. improve the coordination between differ- undertake significant scientific activity. Some universities in France are beginning ent countries. To win a competition you President Sarkozy has long been con- to select at the commencement of first need to enter the best competitors. In this vinced of the need to modernise the uni- degree courses by creating new, more elit- context that means the countries with the versities and the first step is to give them ist degrees: bi-disciplinary licentiates. best scientific abilities. More direct coor- autonomy. In France, 95 per cent of uni- The French government is introduc- dination is needed at country-to-country versity budgets come direct from the state. ing incentives to improve the research level in order to develop successful scien- The academic programmes are decided in interface between scientific institutions tific partnerships in Europe. the ministry of higher education. and the best universities. New funding Joint programming as envisaged by So in August 2007 universities were agencies are being created which will the European Commission may be a very granted autonomy – in recruitment, in award money on a competitive basis. good thing, but we also need more joint managing their budgets, in diversifying There are now tax incentives for pri- programmes between nations in Europe. resources. This reform was primarily vate business investing in innovation and I am not convinced that the European to allow diversification. Every coun- research to the tune of a 30 per cent scientific research area is the correct try needs universities which specialise in reduction for investments of more than focus for investment. I believe that a research and others that focus more on €100 million. So the landscape is chang- European innovation area would be professional training, education, etc. Our ing in France. more appropriate. Europe needs to be universities now have the autonomy to Europe produces the greatest number more attractive to young, innovative find this diversity. of science and engineering graduates in companies and the young researchers The funding system is also changing the world, far more than the USA or who want to create their own compa- from one based purely on the number China, for example. Within Europe, the nies. We need an area in which it is of students to one where part of the UK and France have the highest numbers. possible to transform research in eco- money is dependent on the quality of In terms of published scientific articles, nomic activities. We need to develop the faculty and its research. There has 30-35 per cent of the world total comes scientific cooperation inside Europe but traditionally been no selection for uni- from Europe. the first objective should be to develop a versity – anyone with a baccalaureate is So the programme for Europe is not to European innovation area. ☐ entitled to go – but each year, approxi- improve the level of academic research. French National Research and Innovation mately 55 per cent of those young people The problem is a lack of competitiveness Strategy. www.ambafrance-uk.org/ achieving the baccalaureate prepare for with the emerging countries. That is why National-Research-and-Innovation.html

14 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) european research Building stronger European research partnerships

itizens increasingly expect sci- implementation of each initiative. ence and technology to con- Seán O’Reagain is Implementation is also a three step proc- tribute to solutions to the chal- Acting Head of Unit, ess. Experts identify a common vision and lenges society faces. To meet Coordination of set out clear, long-term objectives and deliv- Cthis expectation, Europe needs to respond National Research erables. These are translated into a common effectively to key current trends in research Programmes - Joint strategic research agenda with measurable and innovation. Programming and indicators, based on a clear assessment of With the globalisation of knowledge; Major European Initiatives, in the where Europe wants to go and how best it countries like China are no longer follow- Directorate-General for Research can use its collective abilities. Executing the of the European Commission. He ers, they are leaders. The USA and Japan strategic research agenda involves choos- has previously been responsible for have responded by putting in place stra- ing the most appropriate instruments and European Technology Platforms and tegic initiatives to deal with the situation putting them together in the most effective for the action plan on the 3 per cent – Europe needs to do the same. objective for research investment in way. It also involves regular monitoring and The fragmented way in which research Europe. reporting to ministers. is currently organised in Europe must be addressed urgently. The EU’s share of Identifiable benefits global knowledge production has declined al research programmes, far from it. On So far, 10 areas have been identified for joint over the last 15 years. In the EU, there is their own, however, these are not suf- programming. The pilot initiative relates little increase in business R&D investment, ficient to address major global societal to ‘neurodegenerative diseases, including while countries like China, South Korea challenges. Over the last 50 years we have Alzheimer’s’. This has brought identifiable and even Japan are moving well ahead. seen increasingly successful cooperation at benefits, such as the joint UK-German To improve this situation, Europe must European level. To achieve the necessary initiative, involving Canada in establish- develop world-class excellence in critical scale and depth to meet the new challenges, ing centres of excellence. It has brought areas. It needs to organise its research a step change is now required, involv- other European countries into the process. funding more efficiently and make invest- ing a genuine partnership between EU Another early example of progress is the ment easier. It must also engage in strate- Member States. One way to catalyse this at initiative on ‘agriculture, food security and gic cooperation with partners around the European level is through joint program- climate change’: 20 countries have already world. ming of research. put money into a common pot in order The financial crisis has cost the EU to launch the initiative. First initiatives €1,000 billion and six million jobs. Yet if Joint programming such as these will form a test-bed for joint we invested 3 per cent of GDP in R&D – Through joint programming, Member programming. our current objective – we could create 3.5 States come together on a voluntary basis Joint Programming is still in its early million jobs and generate close to €800 bil- to define and implement strategic research stages but there are potentially great bene- lion in revenue by the year 2025. agendas, based on common visions for fits from a number of Member States com- Public research programmes have, in tackling societal challenges. Such an ing together to develop common solutions. the past, addressed major societal chal- approach does not involve asking for more For example, smaller countries which, lenges effectively. Examples include the money from Member States or transferring because of high start-up costs, do not green revolution, which stopped famine in funds from national programmes. It is not have a tradition of ambitious research pro- the world, and the development of penicil- about asking for more power at EU level to grammes may benefit particularly through lin. In Europe today, public research is not influence national research programmes becoming involved. Most importantly, fully realising its potential contribution and it does not involve a new instrument Joint Programming should contribute to to addressing societal challenges because for EU research. the elimination of undesirable duplication its funding is overly compartmentalised. Rather, joint programming is a process. across national programmes. When spending across the 27 countries is It involves putting together resources, using The scientific community can expect combined with expenditure at EU level, the most appropriate instruments – be they greater mobility and increased impact by Europe is quite close to the level of the at regional, national or European level – sharing information and working with col- USA and well ahead of Japan and China. and then, collectively, monitoring them to leagues across the EU. However, in Europe only 10-15 per cent of ensure that progress has been achieved. Business will also see benefits and public research spending is carried out on Critical to the success of joint program- opportunities arising from more open a trans-national, collaborative basis. In the ming is top-level political endorsement. innovation strategies; more rapid dissemi- USA, 85-90 per cent of funding is given on The process works, essentially, in three nation of research results; development of a competitive, federal basis. stages. First, high-level representatives, common, standardised solutions across a In the EU, the way our public research nominated by the EU Council of Research number of countries at European level; and funding is channelled is changing. Member Ministers, identify areas for joint program- better access to public research support. ☐ States are increasingly collaborating in ming. Second, they make recommenda- The views expressed are purely those of the areas where R&D has a key role to play in tions to ministers who endorse proposals author and may not in any circumstances be addressing the challenges facing Europe. for particular areas. A steering group of regarded as stating an official position of the That will not mean abandoning nation- Member States’ experts then oversees the European Commission. fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 15 behavioural change

Can a change in consumer behaviour towards energy usage help the UK achieve its carbon reduction targets? The question was discussed at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 24 November 2010. Modelling pathways to greener energy supplies David MacKay

consider myself a ‘green’ of long their experience. standing. Yet a few years ago, when Professor David As for biomass, Pathway Alpha asked how much energy I used at MacKay FRS is Chief includes two elements. ‘Import’ corre- home, I realised that I did not know. Scientific Adviser at sponds to an area half the size of Wales So I began to read the meters on a regular the Department of in another country delivering biomass I Energy and Climate basis and it changed my life. I turned the in some form. The term ‘biomass’ itself Change (DECC) thermostat down to 17ºC and then 13ºC. refers to an area one and a half times the and is a professor Often 13ºC feels fine, but sometimes it size of Wales here in the UK being used in the physics department, the feels chilly. A simple target temperature Cavendish Laboratory, University for production of biocrops and forestry. was not enough, but by juggling with the of Cambridge. He did his doc- On the waste-to-energy front, we thermostat up and down I was able to torate at Caltech where he was a would need a thousand towns (effectively virtually halve my gas consumption. I founder member of the Caltech all the towns in Britain) each having a switched to low-energy light bulbs and Environmental Task Force. He has facility to take 300 tonnes per day of always switch off the DVD player after published a popular book on energy municipal, commercial, industrial and watching a DVD. I have made significant supply and demand, Sustainable agricultural waste. That total amount changes at home. Behavioural change is Energy – Without the Hot Air. of waste is roughly three times today’s possible, but can we engage the public at municipal waste production. large in the same sort of meter-reading On the nuclear front, Pathway Alpha activities? want to minimise environmental impacts supposes a resource equivalent to build- The Department of Energy and can adapt the model in a different way. ing 39 Sizewell Bs, a four-fold increase Climate Change has developed the 2050 On the demand side, one can intro- over today’s level. It can be achieved if we Pathways Calculator, to be found on the duce more cycling and public transport. can follow France’s approach: they have DECC website. This allows users to Alternatively, the use of electric vehicles, the equivalent of 63 Sizewell Bs built in a experiment with both the supply side which are more efficient than conven- couple of decades. and the demand side of the energy-use tional ones, can be increased provided 40GW of coal, gas or biomass power equation. It also helps users to assess there is an efficient way to deliver the stations with carbon capture and storage the lifestyle choices that determine the electricity and to cope with the increased (CCS) is the final supply-side contribu- energy we consume as individuals. electricity demand. tion in Pathway Alpha. The mass flow- The base model for Pathway Alpha rate of carbon dioxide into the North Pathway Alpha includes a significant amount of electrifi- Sea from these power stations would be To understand how the calculator works, cation of transport. the same as the peak mass flowrate of oil a good starting point is to look at Pathway The photovoltaic systems in Pathway extracted from the North Sea in the past Alpha . This is a combination of demand- Alpha would involve a 4,000-fold increase few decades. It is probably practicable, side and supply-side choices that achieves over today’s levels, which could be but a great challenge. the goal of an 80 per cent reduction in achieved with 34 million rooftop systems greenhouse emissions by 2050. The lights of 10 square metres each. In fact, Britain Matching supply and demand stay on, so to speak, while still satisfying does not have 34 million homes, so this Pathway Alpha requires supply to match supply constraints even when there is no solution would actually require not only demand at all times, so it envisages more wind for five days. rooftop systems but also the Bavarian storage, greater inter-connection to other There is a ‘central pathway’, one of the method of covering the countryside with countries to help with balancing and a options found with this tool that achieves solar plants, too! lot of smart demand management — for both security of supply and emissions The contribution on the hot water side instance moving the times at which elec- reductions. It is central in that it involves – 19TWh per year — would come from tric vehicles are charged and heat pumps strong effort in all sectors: by making a 14 million rooftop systems, each 3 square operate in order to balance supply and stronger effort in specific demand- or metres in size. The heat pumps delivering demand. supply-side areas and less in others, a 234TWh per year would require 20 mil- One option that Pathway Alpha does range of other viable pathways can be lion pumps, replacing condensing boilers not use is the import of electricity from obtained. For instance, people looking in many buildings. The Japanese have other countries. The 2050 calculator does for a cost-optimal solution can direct the proved to be very successful at deploying include it, so it can be used instead of model in that direction while those who such heat pumps: we could learn from some of the other sources.

16 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) behavioural change

The whole 2050 Calculator spread- trade-offs between lifestyle changes, tech- and measures that cause lifestyle change sheet is available as open-source soft- nology switches and different supply side through other mechanisms such as mar- ware. Users can scrutinise it and help options. The aim is that those conversa- keting. ☐ improve this tool. This should encourage tions may lead to lifestyle change and, Carbon calculator. http://2050-calculator- constructive conversations examining the indeed, to people pressing for legislation tool.decc.gov.uk

Delivering the UK’s low-carbon targets Stuart Groves

he UK Government is com- implementation of low-carbon technolo- mitted to delivering two major, Stuart Groves, a gies and reduce energy consumption. In Principal at Booz & low-carbon targets by 2020. The many cases, this will require dramatic Company, specialises first requires the UK to reduce behavioural changes. in strategy, operations carbon emissions by 34 per cent relative T and performance Priority actions to 1990 levels. The second requires the improvement in the UK to source 15 per cent of its energy low-carbon, renewables and broader There is no one action that will ensure from renewables. energy sector. He started his career delivery of the targets – the sectors are in low-carbon in 1995, working for too broad, the technologies too specific Clean energy survey insights Ballard Power Systems on the devel- and the barriers too diverse. However, In late 2010, Booz & Company and opment of fuel-cell technology for we have attempted to identify priority 2degrees (an online community of clean automotive applications. actions for Government, communities, energy experts) conducted a survey about businesses, and consumers. the UK’s 2020 low-carbon targets. The On the supply side, there is a clear majority of experts surveyed believed the 2020 delivery and key barriers need for massive investment in electric- UK would not meet the 2020 targets: over Overall, the 2020 targets can be achieved ity infrastructure to support the delivery 25 per cent thought the targets would but there is a high risk of failure due of offshore/onshore wind and nuclear not be achieved until 2030. All survey to the many implementation challenges. power. In particular, additional transmis- participants identified the reduction in To help reach these targets, we believe sion infrastructure will be required. energy demand as a critical lever in the there must be a significant deployment As a second priority, additional finan- delivery of the targets. In addition, many of low-carbon and renewable technolo- cial incentives are required to drive invest- participants agreed that a shift to renew- gies in the electricity generation sector. ment in renewable generation capacity. able electricity and nuclear power would Today, there are many onshore/offshore Today, the carbon price (i.e. what has to also be required. wind and biomass projects in the plan- be paid for the emission of one tonne of

Finance for generation and infrastruc- ning and concept phases that will be CO2) is too low to stimulate significant ture capital projects was considered the financially attractive, assuming sufficient investment. Furthermore, the low-carbon most critical barrier to delivery. The next Government incentives are implemented. regulatory framework is unclear post- three barriers relate to demand side/con- If the vast majority of these projects are 2014. Significant reform has been pro- sumer issues: insufficient financial incen- completed, we believe the UK can get posed by the UK Government’s Energy tives to promote investment in domestic close to 30 per cent renewable electricity Market Review, including a Contract for low-carbon and renewable technologies; generation by 2020. Difference or Premium Feed-In-Tariff to inadequate incentives for demand reduc- However, the challenges and uncer- incentivise low-carbon generation. Such tion; and limited consumer interest and tainties related to the deployment of reform is required and, crucially, it must awareness. Interestingly, most respon- renewable heat are much greater. Many be implemented with speed to prevent a dents believed we do not have technology of the key technologies (e.g. air and hiatus in investment. In addition, careful limitations. ground source heat pumps) are too consideration must be given to ensuring No ‘silver bullet’ activity was identi- expensive for consumers relative to con- that the level of incentive within the pro- fied that would ensure delivery. Policies ventional technologies. In addition, they posed regulatory mechanism is adequate to support demand reduction were con- have poor supply chains and unclear to make low-carbon projects attractive to sidered important, but there was limited performance levels. investors. consensus on other potential levers. Current trends suggest that, without A third priority is to implement Booz & Company has also inde- intervention, there will be limited car- improvements in the planning and per- pendently assessed the UK’s likelihood bon reduction from demand and effi- mitting process for infrastructure and of meeting its 2020 targets, the barriers ciency improvements; indeed there may generation capacity. We must consider the to implementation, and priority actions even be an increase in the short term as speed, efficiency and cost of this as it is a to support delivery. We analysed these the economy emerges from recession. bottleneck for many projects. It would be questions from both supply (low-car- However, we believe there is significant useful to have increased clarity about the bon generation and renewable heat) and scope in the buildings, industry and sur- role of the Major Infrastructure Planning demand (buildings, industry and trans- face transport sectors since there are a Unit, which will replace the Infrastructure port sectors) perspectives. number of opportunities to expand the Planning Commission (IPC) and should fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 17 behavioural change play a key role in expediting the start of play. Continued support for community ments and delivery model for the pro- key construction projects. action on climate change is also impor- posed Green Deal and Renewable Heat On the demand side, as a priority, we tant for driving consumer change at the Incentive schemes. In addition, more must focus on changing consumer behav- local level. funds must be made available to small iours. Research suggests that understand- Increased funding is required for and medium enterprises which currently ing personal energy usage can change renewables and efficiency technologies. have limited access to finance for energy overall consumption patterns. Smart In particular, there is an important role efficiency investments. meter roll-out with personalised infor- for schemes which reduce the need for Finally, more stringent regulation and mation on energy consumption is one consumers to pay the upfront capital standards for buildings, electric appliances of the most important levers. Product of investing in energy efficiency – and and vehicles will also support emission labelling (e.g. energy efficiency levels) allow payments to be made as savings reductions. For example, by raising the and increased education programmes – are realised (known as pay-as-you-save performance standards for the worst non- about both impacts and opportunities to schemes). The UK Government must domestic buildings we could save up to 15 reduce consumption – will have a part to clarify the domestic funding arrange- per cent of emissions in this sector. ☐ Encouraging changes in consumer consumption patterns Pilgrim Beart

lertMe uses modern technol- tion of major appliances to their energy ogy to give consumers visibil- Pilgrim Beart is bill. ity and control of their energy Founder and Director consumption. This has pro- of AlertMe, a Empowering consumers Avided some experience with real consum- Cambridge start-up When considering how to motivate and ers who are considering how they might company specialis- empower consumers, some segments are change their lives in order to change their ing in energy and harder than others to empower. For energy consumption. security monitoring products. After example, nearly seven million people The power required to run our nation six years working in Silicon Valley in the UK are functionally innumerate. in the 1990s for companies like is about 300GW on average — about They cannot easily understand numeri- Atari and Chromatic Research (now 5kW per capita — and 30 per cent of this cal displays, but a speedometer-style dial AMD), he returned to Cambridge is consumed in our homes. Add to this or coloured warning light makes power UK where, prior to AlertMe, he the 17 per cent consumed in our cars, founded two other companies: easier to understand, for example: green and nearly half of all UK energy is used activeRF Ltd and Antenova Ltd. for normal conditions when at home, red directly by individuals. We do this largely when the tumble-dryer is running, and from a position of ignorance: the way we blue when you are going out, or in bed. consume energy today has been com- to collaborate as part of a team. How can Unless the display is blue, something pared to shopping in a supermarket with these drives be harnessed to motivate has been left on. It works for everyone, no prices on the shelves, then receiving an energy reduction behaviour? Here are because it acts subliminally, making peo- un-itemised bill a few months later. We a few ideas. We can ask: “If your home ple aware of energy use without claiming can see that it is expensive, but there is no consuming more energy than your neigh- too much attention. easy way to work out why. bour’s?”, “Is your town doing better than False economies should be made the next town?” Peer pressure can be a more obvious. The rental cost of a The strongest motivator powerful driver. washing machine with A-class efficiency Money is the strongest motivator in reduc- Most consumers believe the size of can be twice as high as renting a C-class ing consumer consumption. Whatever their energy bills to be beyond their con- machine. Yet renting the A-class can be the policy framework, the price of home trol. That perception must be changed cheaper overall due to its lower running energy ought to increase, or at least stay by improving consumption information, costs. Energy labels are a start, but bet- high, in order to reflect the true value ideally giving feedback on the cost-per- ter explanations are needed about why it — and cost — of using up our society’s use of appliances (including heating) at matters, and ideally numbers should be natural capital. Energy bills hover at the time they commit to each energy given in currency rather than abstract about 9 per cent of disposable income expenditure. scales. today, and householders are concerned While today’s in-home displays give People can be helped to budget effec- about them. However, we must move a view of how much power is being tively. Many have prepay meters, and away from today’s tiered pricing model: drawn right now – in kilowatts – the the consequence of poor budgeting is this encourages profligate use since under bill relates to total energy consumption to be temporarily cut-off. By helping this scheme energy becomes cheaper the – in kilowatt-hours. The technology is track consumption through a day, week more you use. now available to automatically disaggre- or month, people can be helped to take As social animals, people compete to gate household consumption, breaking it early action and get their consumption be better than others, while they also love down to show consumers the contribu- back on track.

18 fst journal >> april 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) behavioural change

In some areas, consumers have Consumers can only make choices they unit of output by 40 per cent over the already embraced sustainability, even to are offered, so there would not be suf- past few decades. their short-term inconvenience or cost. ficient empowerment. The consumer Factories can pay their utility for Examples include energy-saving light must be at the heart of everything, delivering a temperature on the shop bulbs and recycling. What lessons from although Government and business are floor. This is an example of an ESCO – these successes can be applied more gen- also needed to deliver choice. an energy services company. It should erally to home energy reduction? First, The Government’s role is to establish be possible to translate this to the con- visibility: you can see a light bulb or the facts and make key decisions, with sumer realm: provide a level of service recycled materials but you cannot see a focus on empowering all the players. for a fixed fee and share the benefits of heat escaping through the roof or fuel An important element of this is outreach efficiency improvements. being burned. Second, convenience: to consumers. Pushed by Government Are personal carbon targets likely to many people will contribute to the public and pulled by consumers, enlightened be tomorrow’s reality? Is it already pos- good if it is convenient enough. The utilities are already transitioning from sible to participate in personal carbon consumer aspects of the Government’s low-margin energy retailers to provid- trading at myemissionsexchange.com. Green Investment Bank, announced in ers of high-margin energy services. The The Isle of Eigg recently worked out that October 2010, seem rightly focused on power of ‘consumer pull’ can be seen in, capping energy demand for individual convenience. for example, the mobile phone market. homes to 5kW would halve the need It is vital to communicate well, explain- If consumers are provided with the tools for renewables. That’s how Italy works ing before exhorting or compelling, espe- to take full advantage of smart meters, already, using only 3kW or 6kW connec- cially since energy-saving happens inside so that they actively want them, the UK tions to the grid compared to the UK’s the home. The new Annual Energy could become a leader of free-market effectively unlimited 18kW. Statements, showing everyone the total innovation in consumer energy. annual cost of their energy – £1,200 on Past successful sustainability initia- The consumer perspective average – should provide not just clarity, tives such as low-energy light bulbs have What would the transition look like from but also stimulate ‘bill shock’. gone through a three stage process: ‘ena- a consumer perspective? In recycling, we ble it, socialise it, enforce it’. Business have the mantra of reduce, renew, recy- Delivering change made the bulbs available, consumers got cle. The equivalent transition for home How can change be delivered? The used to them, Government outlawed energy could be reveal, reduce, renew. main players are Government, business incandescent filament bulbs. In the reveal stage, in-home displays and the consumer. A Government-only The US company Comverge helped make consumption visible, and annual approach could be characterised as ‘forc- utilities avoid building new power sta- bills provide the ‘shock’ to overcome ing it through’: taxing energy highly, tions with its demand-response pro- inertia. An early response is to switch rolling out smart meters without con- gramme, adjusting millions of consumer providers, but as the benefits of this sultation, forcing people to insulate their thermostats remotely during peak grid become marginal due to competition, homes, perhaps even enforcing personal demand. Something like this will hap- suppliers will increasingly need to really carbon rationing. This is probably not pen here, although I hope that we adopt differentiate; one way they will do so is a vote-winner. Smart meter rollout in a less prescriptive, more price-driven by offering added-value energy services. the Netherlands has been stopped in model. Paying consumers to make their The reduce stage is a series of behav- its tracks by consumer concerns over consumption more adaptable is worth ioural changes and purchasing decisions, privacy. doing. reducing consumption. The renew stage It could be left to business, includ- One important trend is selling serv- is reached once much of the waste has ing the utilities. But utilities make their ices rather than just products. Services been eliminated. Then the next big gain money by selling energy, and experience outsource the management responsibil- will come from local renewables. All of tells us that deployments planned by ity, and lead to savings because they push this could result in energy bills falling, utilities for the benefit of utilities run the operational costs onto the service even when prices are rising. into strong resistance from consumers. provider, who is then strongly motivated UK energy consumption today is The third option, simply leaving the to minimise them. Service industries wasteful. However the cheapest watt is consumer to make the right choices, have a track record of doing more with the one that does not have to generated is also unlikely to work in isolation. less, reducing energy consumption per in the first place: the ‘negawatt’. Reducing demand can be cheaper and quicker than

d is cu ssion building the equivalent renewable supply. Global perspectives Although we need to switch to energy from renewables, reducing consumption Carbon emissions reduction is a global issue, not just one for the UK. A number is essential to reduce the capacity that of countries — the United States included — are retreating from green pro- needs to be built. grammes, concerned at rising costs and the possibility that their industries will The UK needs a set of well-designed become uncompetitive. The same could happen here. The Royal Commission solutions, targeting every worthwhile on the Environment has expressed concern that while all sources of energy have saving. There is huge potential to reduce environmental objections, it is important not to be negative but to create a con- energy consumption by unleashing frus- sensus in which environmental and energy projects are considered together. The trated consumer engagement, without issue is really one of risk avoidance. Fossil fuel prices may well soar in future. affecting our quality of life. Actions Does business understand that without innovation and meeting environmental that we take now could deliver signifi- concerns, they might find themselves in decline? cant, measurable difference within this Parliament. ☐ fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 19 sustainable cities

In the coming decades, by far the larger part of humanity will live in cities. How can these conur- bations be made sustainable? That was the question addressed at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology held at Newcastle University on 10 February 2011. Making old industrial cities sustainable Paul Younger

ore and more of the world’s grow without increased emissions or population is living in cit- Professor Paul vulnerability to climate change; ies, and this process is not Younger FREng DL • the EU FP7 project Sustainable Urban about to reverse. Most of is Director of the Metabolism for Europe, which seeks the future growth of urban population Newcastle Institute to establish more sustainable planning M for Research on will be in existing cities. Accordingly, the strategies over the next four decades; Sustainability much-publicised new-build ‘eco-cities’ the Newcastle CarbonRouteMap: a (NIReS) at Newcastle • such as Dongtan (near Shanghai, China) rigorous urban energy and CO emis- University. His background is in 2 and Masdar City (Abu Dhabi) are of hydrogeology and environmen- sions analysis approach, developing limited value in helping us learn how to tal engineering, with a focus on spatially-referenced area-based tools achieve ‘sustainable urbanism’. The real empowering communities to tackle to help local government make the challenge is to achieve sustainability in post-industrial pollution, the provi- economic case for retro-fitting low- old industrial cities: retro-fitting sustain- sion of clean water and the develop- carbon interventions; ability in cities with large inheritances of ment of geothermal energy. He is • electric vehicles: Nissan, Smith and low-performance infrastructure (trans- a Fellow of the Royal Academy of other companies in the North East port, energy, water, waste, etc). Engineering and was appointed a are at the forefront of this technol- The term ‘sustainable urbanism’ is Deputy Lieutenant for the County of ogy. Newcastle University is involved subject to conflicting definitions. Some Tyne and Wear in October 2009. in monitoring trials of vehicles in emphasise urban form, e.g. “Walkable and NewcastleGateshead, and in develop- transit-served urbanism integrated with the world ‘carboniferous capitalism’ when ing light, tank-free, lithium-battery high performance buildings and high-per- it began mining coal at an industrial scale engine systems, taking oxygen direct formance infrastructure”1. Others empha- in the late 16th century. from the air by filtration (instead of sise process, e.g. “Application of public Four centuries later, Newcastle has storing it in onboard tanks); health and societal ethics in places”2. been independently identified as the most • offshore wind: the Dogger Bank Neither of these definitions is particu- sustainable of the UK’s 20 largest cities for lies 100km due east of Tynemouth larly satisfactory, as each fails to engage two years in succession (2009, 2010) by and development there is stimulat- directly with the natural environment. the thinktank Forum for the Future. To ing major investment in assembly To develop a more holistic definition of sustain the momentum, the municipal and manufacture, as well as support ‘sustainable urbanism’, it is first important authorities of Newcastle and neighbour- facilities, on the Tyne. Newcastle to be clear what we mean by ‘sustain- ing Gateshead have developed a joint University is leading innovation in the ability’. In Newcastle, we have adopted economic and spatial strategy, called the design of marine structures, turbine the following definition of sustainability: ‘1Plan’, which sets forth a 20-year vision gears and seabed HVDC transmission Enough, for all, forever. for NewcastleGateshead to “become a technologies; By ‘enough’ we mean economic suf- great northern European city, transform- • deep geothermal energy: with finan- ficiency (but not damaging excess); in ing the urban core through sustainable cial support from DECC’s Deep Geo- saying ‘for all’ we invoke not only social urbanism”. thermal Challenge Fund, drilling has justice, but also the needs of non-human This will require substantial expansion of commenced on a 2km-deep borehole beings. Committing to anything ‘forever’ the science- and engineering-based knowl- on the Science Central site, the first demands that we respect the finite nature edge economy in NewcastleGateshead, step in creating a 24-acre City Centre of natural resources (renewable and non- drawing on the activities of Newcastle science park and sustainable urban renewable) and commit ourselves to pur- University and other FE and HE institu- living zone. This will be one of the suing inter-generational justice. tions. The Newcastle Institute for Research principal outcomes of the Newcastle From this definition of sustainability, on Sustainability (NIReS) was established Science City initiative. we can derive the following definition of to draw together the expertise of hundreds ‘sustainable urbanism’: of researchers and provide the univer- The sustainable construction of Science Urban planning, policy and practice that sity partner for the City Council in the Central over the next 15 years or so is one seeks to achieve socio-economic and envi- Newcastle Science City initiative. of the earliest elements of a wider initiative ronmental justice, now and in the future. Newcastle University has long been to treat the entire NewcastleGateshead active in urban sustainability research conurbation as a living laboratory of Coals to Newcastle initiatives. Currently, these include: sustainable urbanism, re-developing it as There are few places that better fit the • leading the Cities programme of the a global exemplar of best practice. This description of an old industrial city than Tyndall Centre for Climate Change is not just about technology: mechanisms Newcastle upon Tyne, the city that gave Research, focusing on how cities can to increase participation in decision-

20 fst journal >> April 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) sustainable cities making are equally important. Nor is it different partners anyway. Maintaining There are also other challenges which just about the City: we must address the and expanding partnerships is the key to must be addressed as we pursue sustainable interactions with the rural North and realising the 1Plan. urbanism. For example, is it realistic to the wider world from which we draw More generally, sustainable urban think we can prioritise development on the resources. development options tend to be cheap- basis of sufficiency rather than the habitual er than conventional ones when whole pursuit of excess? Or again, given the par- Challenges life-cycle costs are taken into account. ticular severity of the public spending cuts Is the pursuit of such a vision hubristic However, they can appear more expensive in the North East, will this eliminate the in an age of austerity? There is no doubt where one party pays for capital expendi- scope for public spending to lever-in high that public investment can help reduce ture and another for operating expendi- rates of private investment at levels previ- the risk of innovative developments and ture – especially where private investors ously achieved in Newcastle Gateshead? ☐ make them more attractive to private seek unreasonably short payback periods. 1. Farr D (2008) Sustainable Urbanism: urban investors. Nevertheless, little that has Traditionally, this has been addressed by design with nature. New York: John Wiley. been achieved so far in the North East trying to get the public purse to pay for the 2. Adhya A, Plowright P and Stevens J (2010) is solely due to direct public funding perceived ‘sustainability mark-up’ in capex, Defining Sustainable Urbanism: towards – much more has come from private allowing others to reap disproportionate a responsive urban design. In: Proceedings investment. Even more important has benefits in reduced opex. Maximising of the Conference on Sustainability and the been public partnership, aligning spend- sustainability will require a more grown- Built Environment. King Saud University, ing which would have been incurred by up approach to project funding. Saudi Arabia. January 3-6, 2010. Sustainability: what we do and how we do it Peter White

here is clearly a need for stand their consumers, promote innova- Government action and public Dr Peter White is tion and industrial ecology, and use their sector stimulus in order to put Director for Global core strengths to address the most press- the UK onto a more sustain- Sustainability at ing sustainability challenges. Table trajectory and meet its goals for Procter & Gamble climate change. The most important role and Visiting Professor Know where the impacts are for Government, however, is to set the at the Institute For any business to become more sus- right long-term vision and policy frame- for Research on Sustainability tainable, it needs to understand where its works, within which the private sector at Newcastle University. He major impacts occur, and where it has the helped found P&G’s Sustainable can unleash the power of sustainable biggest opportunity for improvements. Development organisation in 1999, innovation. This should be done over the full life and in 2007 created and led P&G’s Even within current frameworks, there Sustainability Leadership Council. cycle of the products or services that the is much that business can do to “improve Peter was an architect of P&G’s company provides, and may lead to unex- quality of life for everyone – now and long-term Sustainability Vision and pected results. Some 10 years ago, P&G for generations to come” (the original 2020 Goals announced in September used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to UK government definition of sustainable 2010. He also leads P&G’s Global complete an energy footprint for the com- development). Addressing sustainability Sustainability Department. pany, involving all the stages of its key is in the long term self-interest of busi- product categories. The result showed ness and – because much of environmen- that most energy use (and hence CO2 tal sustainability is about reducing waste focus on the ‘how’ – they try to be emissions) was not associated with man- and increasing efficiency – also has direct more efficient and more responsible ufacturing plants, but with heating water short-term benefit too. in their operations. While this is in consumers’ homes to wash clothes. By considering three specific factors, important, it is also critical to look at This led to a programme of product companies may find it easier to benefit the value delivered to society through innovation to develop detergents that from implementing sustainability pro- the products and services a company work effectively at low temperature – grammes. provides. Businesses that think this initially at 30°C with Ariel CoolClean • Take a broad approach to sustainabil- way end up incorporating sustain- and then as low as 15°C with Ariel Excel ity, including social and economic as ability into almost every part of their Gel. The opportunities from cold water well as environmental aspects. Focus- operations. washing are significant, since in the UK ing just on the environment often • Link opportunity with responsibility. it can save 40-50 per cent of the energy excludes opportunities to improve Responsibility is often about minimis- per wash. If everyone in the USA were to lives in the social dimension, which ing impacts and being ‘less bad’, but wash clothes in cold water it would save can themselves be business opportuni- sustainability offers the opportunity to about 3 per cent of their total domestic ties. Failure to address the economic do positive good and build business at energy consumption, and deliver over 6 aspects means companies will not be the same time. per cent of their original Kyoto commit- there in the future to deliver the social ment for greenhouse gas reductions. and environmental benefits! Businesses can make major contribu- • Look at what a company does, as well tions to a more sustainable society if they Understand the consumer as how it does it. Many companies know where their impacts occur, under- Technological innovation is vital, but only fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 21 sustainable cities

d iscussi o n sustainability. Companies, large and Behaviour and aspirations small, and their employees, are impor- tant parts of the communities in which Changing people’s behaviour and aspirations is the key to reducing demand for they operate. Business cannot succeed energy and other resources. Three major elements were identified, all of which in a society that fails, so it is in the were interlinked: information or communication; social cohesion and influence; long-term interest of business to build and regulatory pressure. For all of these elements partnership between public economically strong, healthy and vibrant authorities, universities, and private industry is vital. societies. Many do this by supporting education or the arts, and through the ‘volunteering’ efforts of their employees. part of the story. Unless consumers adopt environment and also for the detergent P&G’s programme, entitled Live, Learn new technologies, and change behaviour company delivering the innovation. and Thrive, aims to reach 300 million accordingly, sustainability benefits may children worldwide through a range of not be delivered. Developing a detergent Industrial ecology partners and projects in order to promote that cleans brilliantly at low temperature Companies can also contribute to the sus- health, education and skills for life. is no benefit unless consumers actually tainability of the cities and towns where Business can also play a broader role select low temperature wash programs – they operate though improvements in by applying its core strengths – innova- hence the importance of campaigns like the environmental performance of their tion, scale and consumer insight – to Ariel’s Turn-to-30, aimed at changing operations. In particular, major busi- address large sustainability challenges, consumer behaviour. nesses can set up networks in their supply including those encapsulated in the UN Insight into consumer needs and chain to convert previous waste materials Millennium Development Goals. For behaviour is key to successfully influ- into resources – the concept of Industrial example, over a billion people do not encing behaviour. Consumer studies Ecology. Although P&G already con- have access to clean drinking water, from around the world show remark- verted 96 per cent of all materials enter- and deaths from water-borne diseas- ably similar results about how consumers ing P&G plants into packed product (with es exceed those from HIV Aids and choose and use products. In Europe, the half of the remaining material recycled), Malaria combined. By using a simple, USA and Japan, only around 15 per cent the company set up a specific global pro- cheap and robust technology developed of consumers (the ‘green niche’) will gramme to reduce solid waste going to in Newcastle upon Tyne, it has been accept a compromise in terms of per- disposal. By identifying all of the waste possible for P&G and its partners to formance or value for the sake of a more materials, and searching for alternative provide point-of-use water purification environmentally sustainable product. At future uses, it has been possible to reduce for both disaster relief and longer term the other end of the spectrum, around 15 the waste per unit of production by an sustainable water supply. Currently per cent of consumers are too concerned additional 50 per cent in just three years. in over 60 countries, this programme with basic living to consider sustainabil- The solutions have been varied and (Children’s Safe Drinking Water) has ity attributes. creative: waste vegetable oil from pro- delivered over 3 billion litres of clean, In the middle, however, there is a ducing Pringles in Belgium is now sold safe water since 2004. large ‘sustainable mainstream’ (about 70 for conversion into biodiesel; waste from per cent of consumers) that will buy a paper plants in Mexico is used to make Conclusions more sustainable product, or adopt more low-cost roofing tiles for local construc- • Business has a major contribution to sustainable behaviour, so long as they tion; skin cream waste in China is used make in delivering more sustainable are not asked to make any trade-offs in to condition leather. These projects cities and communities; performance or value. Most consumers, benefit local businesses, cut costs for • Sustainability is good business, not an for example, will change their behaviour P&G and improve overall environmental added cost for business; to low-temperature washing, but only if efficiency. • Sustainability is about what a business their clothes are cleaned as well as (if does, as well as how it does it; not better than) before, with no extra cost Innovation and social responsibility • Sustainable innovation is essential; or inconvenience. With ‘no trade-offs’, Social responsibility is often the first area • Understanding how customers and there are wins for the consumer, the mentioned for corporate involvement in consumers behave, and why, is vital. ☐ The challenge and opportunity of regeneration

an cities move towards sustain- is one in which everyone in Newcastle has First Law of Motion: a body remains at able economies without stimu- a good job without destroying the planet. rest, or if in motion continues to move in lus? ‘Can’ is such a slippery word. There is no point in a sustainable city a straight line at a constant speed, unless In an infinite universe almost where people do not have jobs. So when acted upon by an external force. Given that Canything can happen. I am more inter- I talk about sustainability I also mean we do not have a sustainable economy now, ested in what will happen, particularly in regeneration. achieving it requires an external force. Newcastle, the city in which I grew up. Regeneration rarely happens by acci- Now the private sector can provide My definition of a sustainable economy dent. We are all familiar with Newton’s that. But right now, in the North East,

22 fst journal >> April 2011 >> vol. 20 (5) sustainable cities

helping to build a new GSM network. The ture: a test bed for wind turbines for exam- Chi Onwurah is MP first telecommunications revolution has ple, or the massive steel press that the new for Newcastle upon passed the country by: in 2001 fixed pen- nuclear power industry needs. Tyne Central. She etration stood at just 1 per cent. Yet by the The test facilities at Narec and NEPIC is Shadow Minister time we had achieved 10 per cent coverage help small companies grow. Now is not for Innovation and with our mobile phone network, Nigeria the time to be cutting and abolishing them. Science. An electrical had some of the most advanced mobile And whilst the Technology Innovation engineer by training, her career has banking applications in the world. Centres are certainly a good idea, hundreds involved working in a number of different countries. Prior to becom- My vision for Newcastle is a city of of applications for six centres speaks of ing an MP, Ms Onwurah was head well-educated, highly-skilled people work- confusion not leadership. Transport links of Telecoms Technology at Ofcom, ing in sustainable industries. That has are also a key part of the necessary infra- the telecommunications regulator, to be the driving force behind regenera- structure, for example port improvements with a focus on broadband provi- tion. Newcastle already has the founda- and high speed rail. sion. tions on which to build. The city hosts The Government’s decision to push the Government’s Marine Management back universal broadband to 2015 certainly Organisation. Thanks in part to the has implications for growth, as well as for I do not believe that it will. It cannot University of Newcastle, the North East rural economies. deliver the necessary change on its own. leads the UK in electric vehicles. This Looking around the world there are com- region has the greatest wind reserves in Skills mon themes to successful regeneration: a Europe – the National Renewable Energy I believe we need to prime the skills pump strong local authority with clear aims and Centre (Narec) in Blyth, founded and for new industries. Engineering UK’s recent objectives; and strategic investment from funded by One North East, is helping to study concluded that under-19 participa- central and local Government. support that industry. At the same time, tion in Further Education at all levels of The Norra Älvstranden area of the North East Process Industry Cluster engineering and manufacturing has fallen Gothenburg, Sweden, has many similarities (NEPIC) enables new, innovative business- by a staggering 43.2 per cent in the last five with Newcastle and Gateshead. Formerly es in green process industries to expand. years. We need more engineers and tech- the site of shipyards employing thousands, The Newcastle Institute for Research on nologists, scientists and entrepreneurs if we the industry went into decline in the 1970s. Sustainability demonstrates the university’s are to move to a sustainable economy. Unlike the UK, the Swedish Government commitment to a sustainable future. There Abolishing the Education Maintenance avoided mass redundancies, implementing is a great opportunity for Newcastle to Allowance and withdrawing 80 per cent of retraining and redeployment schemes, and become a leading city for renewable and public funding from HE are not going to investing in education and research facili- sustainable technologies. help us fill that skills gap. I fear we are in ties in the area. We all agree we need growth. We danger of losing our world-leading posi- From the beginning, local authorities, need it in advanced manufacturing to help tion in science and engineering as a result. universities and leading companies col- rebalance the economy. We need growth laborated to create a cluster of knowledge- in sustainable industries to help meet our Finance intensive firms, along with the facilities and emissions targets and save the planet. The Finally, let us talk about money! Direct environment to help them flourish. This question is – how? I think Government Government funding of R&D plays an was all part of a wider strategy. has a role in four main areas. important role in maintaining the science base. Large and innovative companies Economic development Competition tell me they do their R&D in the UK Today, we need more economic develop- Within competitive markets there are many because they can link to great public sec- ment. More jobs in sustainable industries incentives to innovate and grow. Markets tor research institutions – our universities. that have real value. Jobs for graduates, which do not yet exist are by their very The recent decision of Pfizer to pull out but also for apprentices. To grow, we nature not competitive. New and emerging of the UK is very worrying. Is a lack of need to rebalance our economy so that industries do not have established supply investment and vision making the UK less it is not reliant on one sector or region. chains, so smaller companies have more attractive? Our worth comes from what we produce, difficulty establishing themselves in the Government can support innovation so growth needs to come from new tech- market. This is bad news for our renewable and the move to a sustainable economy by nologies. Advanced manufacturing is a energy sector. Here I think Government means other than direct finance – through platform from which we can grow our has a duty to ensure a level playing field. tax incentives such as the R&D tax credit economy. Yet the present Government does not and the ‘patent box’ which reduces taxa- 160 years ago, this city was leading seem to understand the competitive eco- tion on revenues from new patents. The the UK into the Industrial Revolution; it system for new industries. If reforms to current Government is continuing with was one of the most innovative cities in the planning system and the removal of the patent box policy, but its position on the world. But in the 1970s and ‘80s our targets for wind-farm planning approvals tax credits is unclear. industrial base was destroyed. We lost a go ahead, the UK will cede more ground to I am concerned that this indecisive- generation of manufacturing talent. international competitors. ness is part of a wider incomprehension As any business technologist knows, of the relationship between Government skipping a generation means you lose prof- Infrastructure and growth. Uncertainty kills business its and opportunities but it does not neces- Government also has a role in infrastruc- more quickly than bad news – business can sarily mean you are badly placed to profit ture provision. Small companies develop- respond to difficult circumstances and in from newer technologies. As an electrical ing new markets may not have the time or some cases even flourish, but uncertainty is engineer I spent three years in Nigeria resources to put in place vital infrastruc- arsenic for new business. ☐ fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (4) 23 events

Recent dinner/discussions organised by the Foundation for Science and Technology are listed below. Summaries of these and other events – as well as the presentations of the speakers – can be found on the Foundation website at: www.foundation.org.uk

Can the Further Education Changing behaviour — can a John McClelland CBE FRSE, Chair, system deliver the skilled cultural shift be achieved in Scottish Funding Council people the economy needs? how people use energy? Rashik Parmar, Chief Technology 2 March 2011 24 November 2010 Officer, North East Europe, IBM

Philip Greenish CBE, Chief Executive, Professor David MacKay FRS, Chief The Royal Academy of Engineering Scientific Adviser, Department of Energy Can we trust Government John Hayes MP, Minister of State for and Climate Change statistics? Further Education, Skills and Lifelong Stuart Groves, Principal, Booz & 20 October 2010 Learning, Department for Business, Company Innovation and Skills and Department Pilgrim Beart, Founder and Director, Professor Bernard Silverman FRS, for Education AlertMe Professor of Statistics, University of Dr Claire Craig, Director of Skills, Oxford, and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Business, Innovation Building stronger European Home Office and Skills research partnerships Sir Michael Scholar KCB, Chair, UK Amarjit Basi, Principal and Chief 17 November 2010 Statistics Authority Executive, Walsall College Professor David Hand FBA, President, Norman Pickavance, Group HR Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP The Royal Statistical Society Director, Wm Morrisons FMedSci, Vice-Chancellor, University of Cambridge Can cities move to a Professor Bernard Belloc, Higher Peak Water — can the sustainable economy without Education and Research Adviser to the developing world find the a public sector stimulus? President of France water needed for food Seán O’Reagain, Acting Head of Unit, 10 February 2011 production and a growing Coordination of National Research population? Professor Paul Younger FREng, Programmes – Joint Programming and 14 July 2010 Director, Newcastle Institute for Major European Initiatives, Directorate- Research on Sustainability, Newcastle General for Research, European John D Liu, Film Director, China University Commission Michael Norton MBE, Managing Dr Peter White, Director, Global Director, Water and Power, Halcrow Sustainability, Procter and Gamble Science advice and the Jennifer Schooling, Research Business Chi Onwurah MP, MP for Newcastle management of risk in Manager, Arup Central Government and business Professor Chris Whitty FRCP, Chief Scientist, Department for International 10 November 2010 The allocation of science and Development research funding 2011–12 to Sir John Beddington CMG FRS, 2014–15 Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Government Office for Science The Scientific Century: 2 February 2011 Sir David Omand GCB, Visiting securing our future prosperity Sir Adrian Smith FRS, Director Professor, War Studies Department, — a joint meeting with The General, Knowledge and Innovation, King’s College London Royal Society to celebrate Department for Business, Innovation Professor Dougal Goodman FREng, their 350th Anniversary and Skills Visiting Professor, The Risk Centre, 16 June 2010 Professor Malcolm Grant CBE, Cranfield University President and Provost, University Professor David Spiegelhalter OBE The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt College London FRS, Winton Professor of the Public FRS HonFREng, President, The Royal Dr Patrick Vallance FRCP FMedSci, Understanding of Risk, University of Society and Master, Trinity College, Senior Vice President, Medicines Cambridge Cambridge Discovery and Development, Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci, President, GlaxoSmithKline Digital Scotland - can The Rockefeller University and Member, Scotland grasp the Council for Science and Technology The wonder of the Web opportunities created by the Sir Richard Friend FRS FREng, 8 December 2010 digital revolution? Cavendish Professor, Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge 28 October 2010 Professor Nigel Shadbolt FREng, Professor Adrian Smith FRS, Director Professor of Artificial Intelligence, Professor Michael Fourman FRSE, General Science and Research, School of Electronics and Computer Chair, Digital Scotland Working Group, Department for Business, Innovation Science, Southampton University The Royal Society of Edinburgh and Skills

24 fst journal >> april 2010 >> vol. 20 (3) The Foundation is grateful to the following companies, departments, research bodies and charities for their support for the dinner/discussion programme.

AECOM Health and Safety Executive Shell UK Limited Arts and Humanities Research Council Heriot-Watt University Sir William Francis Arup Home Office Smith Institute for Industrial Association for Science Education Imperial College Mathematics and System Aston University Institution of Agricultural Engineers Engineering Atkins Institute of Marine Engineering, Science Society of Biology BAE Systems and Technology Society of Maritime Industries Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Institute of Physics STEMNET Research Council Institution of Chemical Engineers Technology Strategy Board Birmingham Centre for Railway Institution of Civil Engineers The Institution of Engineering and Research and Education, University Institution of Mechanical Engineers Technology of Birmingham Institution of Railway Signal Engineers The Learning Grid BP Ipsos MORI The Michael John Trust British Academy Japan Society for the Promotion of The Open University British Antarctic Survey Science The Royal Academy of Engineering British Council John Wiley & Sons The Royal Commission for the BSI Group Johnson Matthey plc Exhibition of 1851 Cancer Research UK Keele University The Royal Commission on Carbon Trust Kohn Foundation Environmental Pollution Chartered Insurance Institute Lloyd’s of London The Royal Society City & Guilds of London Institute Lloyd’s Register The Royal Society of Edinburgh City University London Lloyd’s Register Educational Trust The Smallpeice Trust Comino Foundation London and Continental Railways The Wellcome Trust Council for Industry & Higher London School of Hygiene & Tropical TWI Ltd Education Medicine University College London Council for Science and Technology Medical Research Council University of Aberdeen Council of Heads of Medical Schools Middlesex University University of Birmingham Cranfield University Napier University University of Bristol Department for Business, Innovation National Endowment for Science, University of Cambridge and Skills Technology and the Arts University of Dundee Department for Environment, Food and National Oceanography Centre, University of Edinburgh Rural Affairs Southampton University of Glasgow Department for Transport National Physical Laboratory University of Hull Department of Health Natural Environment Research Council University of Kent Economic and Social Research Council Natural History Museum University of Leeds Embassy of the United States of Newcastle University University of Leicester America Nottingham Trent University University of Liverpool Embassy of France Parliamentary & Scientific Committee University of Nottingham Energy Institute Peter Brett Associates LLP University of Reading Engineering and Physical Sciences Premmit Associates Limited University of Sheffield Research Council Queen’s University of Belfast University of Westminster EngineeringUK Red Gate Software Wiley-Blackwell EURIM Research Councils UK Winsafe Garfield Weston Foundation Risk Solutions Wm Morrisons GlaxoSmithKline Rolls Royce Worshipful Company of Launderers Halcrow Group Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Worshipful Company of Security Hatherly Labs, School of Biological Royal Statistical Society Professionals Sciences, University of Exeter Science and Technology Facilities Heads of University Biological Sciences Council (HUBS) Sharp Laboratories of Europe Ltd The Foundation for Science and Technology 10 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AH Telephone: 020 7321 2220 Fax: 020 7321 2221 Email: [email protected] www.foundation.org.uk

T H E F O U N D A T I O N F O R S C I E N C E A N D fs t TE C H N O L O G Y