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July 2020 • Issue #517 AMSTATNEWS The Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association • http://magazine.amstat.org THE PANDEMIC JSM

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AMSTATNEWS JULY 2020 • ISSUE #517 Executive Director Ron Wasserstein: [email protected]

Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations Stephen Porzio: [email protected] features Senior Advisor for Statistics Communication and Media Innovation Regina Nuzzo: [email protected] 3 President’s Corner Director of Science Policy 5 A Note from the ASA Presidents Steve Pierson: [email protected] 6 Katherine Ensor Elected 2022 ASA President Director of Strategic Initiatives and Outreach Donna LaLonde: [email protected] 9 ASA Members Lead at Los Alamos

Director of Education 12 A Glimpse into the CDC’s Innovation, Technology, and Rebecca Nichols: [email protected] Analytics Task Force Managing Editor 13 ASA Releases Statement on Government Data Experts Megan Murphy: [email protected]

Editor and Content Strategist 14 New ASA Interest Group: Text Analysis Val Nirala: [email protected] 16 Sections and Interest Groups: A Career Production Coordinators/Graphic Designers Development Perspective Olivia Brown: [email protected] Megan Ruyle: [email protected] 17 Nominations Wanted for Norwood Award

Advertising Manager 18 JSM 2020: Opportunities for Interaction, Claudine Donovan: [email protected] Learning, Engagement

Contributing Staff Members 20 ASA Members Stop the Presses with New Book Naomi Friedman • Kathleen Wert • Elizabeth Henry • Valerie Nirala About Disease Outbreaks Regina Nuzzo • Amanda Malloy Amstat News welcomes news items and letters from readers on matters of interest to the association and the profession. Address correspondence to Managing Editor, Amstat News, American Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA, or email amstat@ columns amstat.org. Items must be received by the first day of the preceding month to ensure appearance in the next issue (for example, June 1 for the July issue). Material can be sent as a Microsoft Word document, PDF, or within an email. Articles will be edited for space. Accompanying artwork will be accepted in graphics file formats only (.jpg, etc.), minimum 300 dpi. No material in 21 STATtr@k WordPerfect will be accepted. Amstat News (ISSN 0163-9617) is published monthly by the American Don’t Eat Grandpa: Tips for Writing Well in a Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314- Nonacademic Setting 1943 USA. Periodicals postage paid at Alexandria, Virginia, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Amstat News, 732 STATtr@k is a column in Amstat News and a website geared toward North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA. Send Canadian people who are in a statistics program, recently graduated from a address changes to APC, PO Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Rich Hill, statistics program, or recently entered the job world. To read more ON L4B 4R6. Annual subscriptions are $50 per year for nonmembers. Amstat articles like this one, visit the website at http://stattrak.amstat.org. If News is the member publication of the ASA. For annual membership rates, you have suggestions for future articles, or would like to submit an see www.amstat.org/join or contact ASA Member Services at (888) 231-3473. article, please email Megan Murphy, Amstat News managing editor, at American Statistical Association [email protected]. 732 North Washington Street Alexandria, VA 22314–1943 USA (703) 684–1221 ASA GENERAL: [email protected] 22 STATS4GOOD ADDRESS CHANGES: [email protected] JSM 2020—Everyone Counts: Data for the AMSTAT EDITORIAL: [email protected] Public Good ADVERTISING: [email protected] WEBSITE: http://magazine.amstat.org This column is written for those interested in learning about the world of Data for Good, where statistical analysis is dedicated to good causes Printed in USA © 2020 American Statistical Association that benefit our lives, our communities, and our world. If you would like to know more or have ideas for articles, contact David Corliss at [email protected].

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Virtual Networking Session Mentor Sign-Up 30 meetings The ASA Committee on Career Development and The Pandemic JSM ASA GivesBack 2020 are hosting a guided virtual networking social for students and early-career statisticians July 30 from 6–8 p.m. We are seeking mid- to late-career professionals from all areas Hello! (academia, industry, and government) to attend the 1.5-hour session and provide students and early-career statisticians opportunities to practice virtual networking. For more information and a tentative outline, visit bit.ly/3ecB1Ey. Welcome! CORRECTION Mousumi Banerjee’s name was inadvertently left out of the COV-IND-19 Study Group in the May issue article, “ASA Members Show Leadership During COVID-19 Crisis.” We regret the error.

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2 amstat news july 2020 president's corner

JSM 2020 Virtual Reality

’m a history buff, so, when I learned JSM 2020 talk will be filled with insights. She probably does would be virtual, I immediately started to think not know this, but she has been a role model for about other JSM history and trivia. In 1940, me as a leader, which makes her participation even theI world was ravaged by WWII, and two JSMs more meaningful to me. I’m also happy to have her were canceled because of transportation issues and honored in another way this year by being recog- other considerations. Thus, there were no confer- nized as a new fellow of the ASA. ences in 1942 and 1943. Statisticians came togeth- When I look at the JSM program, I am filled er again in 1944 when the ASA President’s Address with pride and amazement at the scope of the con- was, for the first time, delivered by a woman— tributions to science and society made by our com- Wendy Martinez Helen M. Walker—who also happens to have been munity. One of the benefits of the virtual program the first female ASA president. At JSM 2019, the is I will be able to see many more presentations, ASA was represented—again for the first time—by since the session recordings will be available until three women presidents: Lisa LaVange; Karen the end of August and I won’t have to make the dif- Kafadar; and me. ficult choice of which sessions to attend. Of course, We are again facing a global crisis because of I will participate in many sessions during the week, COVID-19, which is affecting how we will come including Clinical Visual Analytics: Past, Present, together this summer. Although we will only be able and the Future, which I had the privilege of organiz- to connect with each other virtually, I am looking ing with the support of my colleagues in the Section forward to our first virtual JSM. We have the oppor- on Graphics and the History of Statistics Special tunity to do some unique and creative things by Interest Group. going virtual, besides keeping everyone safe. In this Of all the events at JSM, the one I will miss month’s corner, I want to share some of the activities the most is the opportunity to introduce and I’m most excited about. congratulate the newly elected ASA Fellows. The One of the duties of the ASA president is to challenges of the past few months have been sub- select an invited speaker for JSM. Of all the deci- stantial, but reviewing the accomplishments of sions I have made during my term as president, these talented members of our community makes this was by far the easiest. I wanted my colleague me optimistic about our future. Since we will not Erica Groshen, who served as commissioner of the be able to greet each other on the stage, I would Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), to be my invited like to ask you to share selfies of yourself and your speaker. I am grateful Erica agreed and am looking family celebrating your achievement. Use the forward to her talk—What Is the Future of Official hashtags #ASAFellow and #JSM2020 so we can Statistics?—August 3 at 3:00 p.m. ET. have a virtual recognition ceremony. During her tenure at BLS, Erica proved to be We are also planning a virtual walk/run an exceptional and thoughtful leader, so I know her challenge. Beginning August 2 and concluding

july 2020 amstat news 3 ASA Fellows, post a a virtual recorded talk is better than an in-person photo of yourself and one at bit.ly/2YBOWxw. The top 5–10 reasons (as your family on Twitter, determined by ASA staff) will be announced each Instagram, or Facebook. day prior to JSM, and winners will receive a prize (thanks to an anonymous donor). Use the #ASAFellow and #JSM2020 tags. Share SDSS 2020 them with @AmstatNews The ASA Symposium on Data Science and Statistics so we can celebrate (bit.ly/3e3I6ao) is taking place as I write this column together! (with a lot of help from Donna LaLonde). I believe View the 2020 ASA this is the first major virtual conference the ASA has organized, and I have to tell you it is fantastic. If this Fellows announcement at is an indication of how JSM will go this year, then I bit.ly/37y3X7q. can only say it will be well worth your time. I am attending sessions at SDSS and am August 6, there will be daily walk/run tasks. impressed by how smoothly it’s going. We can see Besides getting your workout in, you will have the speaker and slides via live streaming. There is a the opportunity to win prizes. So, lace up your chat box for attendees to exchange comments and shoes and watch for more information about how to say hi, along with a box for entering questions to to sign up. I promise the challenges will have a be asked of the speakers. All of this will be available statistical flair! at virtual JSM (depending on the type of session), Now back to being a history buff, which means along with a virtual exhibit hall, mentoring conversa- I love trivia. We are going to have a JSM trivia con- tions and activities, poster sessions, and much more. test, and we need your help. Please use the form at Kudos to SDSS 2020 Program Chair Dave Hunter, bit.ly/3ht9sZD to submit JSM trivia—serious, funny, the SDSS program committee, speakers, attendees, or both. We will use your submissions to create the and ASA staff (especially Naomi Friedman). questions for our contest. I already have some great After having the privilege of chairing several trivia questions after working on my address. Yes, it sessions at SDSS (including a panel discussion), will have elements of history and statistics! I know the ASA staff will ensure our JSM experi- One positive aspect of a virtual JSM is I do not ence is one for the history books! So, I encourage all have to give my talk in person, live, and on the members, colleagues, and friends to be creative for stage. Plus, the talk is always given late in the eve- this meeting, have some fun, learn something new, ning on the Tuesday of JSM after several days of connect with others, enjoy yourselves, and make sessions and meetings, and it’s past my usual bed- some wonderful memories. time. So, one benefit this year is I can record my talk ahead of time, leaving me “stress free” and able to sit back and enjoy virtual JSM. I am sure many of you can come up with more reasons why it is good I’m giving a virtual recorded talk, and we are asking you to submit them to us. Please enter your hopefully funny, but not required, reasons for why

4 amstat news july 2020 A Note from the ASA Presidents

Editor’s Note: The following letter was sent to ASA members June • We will create and maintain communica- 10, 2020, on the day of #ShutdownSTEM and #ShutdownAcademia. tions channels to facilitate public commentary to help us identify the opportunities for improvement with respect to diversity and Dear Colleagues, inclusion within the ASA and the broader statistics and data science communities. We, the three elected presidents of the American Statistical Association (ASA), are deeply moved by the tragedies and social upheaval that have unfolded To help fulfill these pledges, we are creating an anti- in the past few weeks. As felt by many of you, we racism task force that will be co-chaired by the chair too are angered, anguished, and wearied as new of the ASA Committee on Minorities in Statistics names are added to the dreadful roll call of black and include some of its members plus other people individuals slain, harmed, or threatened by law we will appoint. enforcement or by vigilantes. As allies, we stand Please help us learn from you: with African Americans and other communities of color as we to work to overcome systemic racism in • Tell us how the ASA can improve itself and America. And we acknowledge that all institutions our community by better addressing systemic are imperfect and need reforms that eradicate racism racism and hindering biases of any kind. in operations, policies, and structure. Provide confidential or public suggestions These reforms should start at home, here within (bit.ly/37xt9eb). the ASA and the broader statistics and data science communities. For that reason, we especially are • Share with us your experiences. Our email grateful for the many discussions and recommenda- addresses are listed by our signatures at the tions shared via social media, email, and ASA dis- bottom of this message. We also plan to host a virtual town hall meeting for individuals to cussion boards. We are compiling recommendations share their experiences and recommendations. here (bit.ly/3d50u1p). However, we immediately make the • Volunteer to be involved (bit.ly/2YCTfsb). following pledge: Today, Wednesday, June 10, 2020, we • We will critically reappraise and work to join with the global community by observing improve the effectiveness of our efforts to be a #ShutDownSTEM and #ShutDownAcademia. more diverse and inclusive community. We are taking time for reflection on how systemic racism and unconscious bias damages our per- • We will identify resources to help the persons sonal and professional lives and, more broadly, the and organizations within our professional statistics and data science communities. With your community learn and grow their level of cul- help, we hope to strengthen our professional com- tural competence. munity by making it more just, equitable, diverse, • We will work with the ASA Board of and inclusive. Directors to develop a plan to help members of our professional community become better Sincerely, statisticians and citizens of our communities through a deeper understanding of our own Wendy Martinez, President inherent biases. [email protected]

• We will be transparent in sharing the diversity Rob Santos, President-Elect and inclusion issues identified within our orga- [email protected] nization, as well as the solutions implemented.

Karen Kafadar, Past President [email protected]

july 2020 amstat news 5 Katherine Ensor Elected 2022 ASA President Matilde Sanchez-Kam to Be Vice President

atherine (Kathy) Ensor, programs. “ASA has an opportu- Institute Urban Data Platform, Noah G. Harding nity to work with university lead- a computing platform and Professor of Statistics in ers to articulate the value statis- data repository for the greater Kthe George R. Brown School of ticians bring to their strategic Houston area. She served as chair Engineering at Rice University, leadership table.” Ensor said. of the department of statistics has been elected the 117th presi- Another area of focus for from 1999 through 2013. Ensor dent of the American Statistical Ensor will be growing urban ana- looks forward to advancing the Association. She will serve a one- lytics, a field that combines statis- ASA’s Leadership Institute, which year term as president-elect begin- tics, local governments, and “data was established in 2018 and pro- ning January 1, 2021; her term as for good.” “Our urban environ- vides training and opportunities president becomes effective ments generate massive amounts for ASA members to develop January 1, 2022. of geo-referenced data, allowing their leadership skills. The ASA membership also us to draw insights on how we Ensor’s professional service elected Matilde Sanchez-Kam, work, live, play, and learn within spans many areas, including serv- associate director of analytics our communities,” Ensor said. ing on the board of directors of and informatics in the Office of “Urban analytics requires our the National Science Foundation Biostatistics of the Center for best statistical science coupled Institute on Pure and Applied Drug Evaluation and Research with a willingness to engage local Mathematics, as a member of the at the US Food and Drug governments, NGOs, and com- National Academies Committee Administration, ASA vice presi- munities to improve quality of on Applied and Theoretical dent. Sanchez-Kam’s term begins life.” Ensor said she would like to Statistics, as vice president of the January 1, 2021. see the ASA foster collaborations ASA from 2016 to 2018, and as Ensor said one of her major between ASA members and their elected representative to numer- goals as president is to advance local communities. ous ASA sections and councils. the ASA’s data science footprint. Leadership has been a con- Ensor earned her doctorate “Data science methods integrate sistent theme in Ensor’s career. in statistics from Texas A&M the best of statistical thinking At Rice University, she serves University and her master’s in and practice,” she said, noting as director for the Center for mathematics and bachelors of sci- that many universities are already Computational Finance and ence in education from Arkansas investing in their statistics depart- Economic Systems and also over- State University. She was ments to build top data science sees development of the Kinder elected fellow of the American

6 amstat news july 2020 Association for the Advancement Publications Representative Section on Statistical Computing of Science in 2013 and an ASA to the ASA Board (COMP) Fellow in 2000. Chair-Elect 2021 • Jeffrey Dawson, Associate Sanchez-Kam begins her ten- Jun Yan Dean for Faculty Affairs, Program Chair-Elect 2021 ure as ASA vice president after College of Public Health, Linglong Kong more than 20 years of active ser- University of Iowa, as vice to the ASA. She first became Chair-elect of the Council Council of Sections Representative a member as a Penn State gradu- of Chapters Governing 2021–2023 ate student in 1993 and has Board Samantha Tyner held numerous positions within Section on Statistical Consulting the ASA since then, including • Jason Roy, Chair (CNSL) chair of the biopharmaceutical of Biostatistics and Chair-Elect 2021 section, chair of the statistical Epidemiology, School of Xiaoyue Maggie Niu consulting section, and both Public Health, Rutgers University, as Chair-elect Publications Officer 2021–2022 president and vice president of Edward L. Boone the New Jersey Chapter. of the Council of Sections Council of Sections Representative Since 2018, Sanchez-Kam Governing Board 2021–2023 The entire slate of election results, has been an associate director of Naomi Brownstein analytics and informatics for the including officers for each of the Office of Biostatistics at the US ASA’s 27 sections, follows: Executive Committee at Large 2021– Food and Drug Administration. 2023 Prior to that, she held positions Section on Bayesian Statistical Robert Podolsky in industry, including nine years Science (SBSS) Section on Statistics and Data as vice president of biostatistics Chair-Elect 2021 Science Education (EDUC) Amy Herring and data management at Arena Chair-Elect 2021 Rebecca Nugent Pharmaceuticals and 11 years as Program Chair-Elect 2021 director of clinical biostatistics Veronica Berrocal Council of Sections Representative and research decision science at Secretary/Treasurer 2021–2022 2021–2023 Merck Research Laboratories. Adrian Dobra Kumer Das Sanchez-Kam earned her Biometrics Section (BIOM) Executive Committee at Large 2021– bachelor’s in statistics from the Chair-Elect 2021 2023 (two positions) University of the Philippines at Sebastien Haneuse Alison Gibbs Los Banos, a master’s in statis- Secretary/Treasurer 2021–2022 Executive Committee at Large 2021– tics and operations research from Xian Jin Xie 2023 (two positions) Penn State, and a PhD in statis- Chris Malone Council of Sections Representative tics from Penn State. Section on Statistics in Defense 2021–2023 and National Security (SDNS) Briana Stephenson The ASA membership also elect- Chair-Elect 2021 ed the following: Biopharmaceutical Section (BIOP) Karl Pazdernik Chair-Elect 2021 • Alexandra Hanlon, Director, Alan Hartford Program Chair-Elect 2021 Center for Biostatistics and Justin T. Newcomer Health Science at Virginia Program Chair-Elect 2021 Freda Cooner Publications Officer 2021–2022 Tech, as the Council of Sarah Elise Roberts Chapters Representative to Secretary 2021–2023 Section on Statistics and the the ASA Board Inna Perevozskaya Environment (ENVR) • Kate Calder, Professor, Council of Sections Representative Chair-Elect 2021 Department of Statistics 2021–2023 Elizabeth Mannshardt Mark Levenson and Data Sciences at The Program Chair-Elect 2021 University of Texas at Business and Economic Statistics Emily L. Kang Austin, as the Council of Section (BE) Treasurer 2021 Sections Representative to Chair-Elect 2021 Katie Banner the ASA Board Erica Groshen Council of Sections Representative • Bin Nan, Professor of Program Chair-Elect 2021 Tyler McCormick 2021–2023 Statistics, University of Debashis Mondal California at Irvine, as Secretary/Treasurer 2021–2022 Daniel Kowal

july 2020 amstat news 7 Section on Statistics in Program Chair-Elect 2021 Quality and Productivity Section (QP) Epidemiology (EPI) Glen Wright Colopy Chair-Elect 2021 Chair-Elect 2021 Lifetime Data Science Section (LIDS) Xinwei Deng Michael Daniels Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Douglas Schaubel Lisa M. Moore Bo Lu Program Chair-Elect 2021 Section on Risk Analysis (RISK) Council of Sections Representative Jing Ning Chair-Elect 2021 2021–2023 Treasurer 2021–2023 Indranil Ghosh Doug Landsittel Yu Cheng Program Chair-Elect 2021 Section on Statistics in Genomics Section on Statistics in Marketing Alexander Alekseyenko and Genetics (SGG) (MKTG) Council of Sections Representative Chair-Elect 2021 Chair-Elect 2021 2021–2023 Michael Wu Alan Montgomery Chris Sroka Program Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Social Statistics Section (SOC) Lin Chen Liye Ma Chair-Elect 2021 Council of Sections Representative Secretary/Publications Officer Aleksandra (Sesa) Slavkovic 2021–2023 2021–2022 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Iuliana Ionita-Laza Alice Li Elena Erosheva Government Statistics Section Section on Medical Devices and Publications Officer 2021–2022 (GOVT) Diagnostics (MDD) Quentin Brummet Chair-Elect 2021 Chair-Elect 2021 Section on Statistics in Sports (SIS) Simone Gray Norberto Pantoja-Galicia Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Paul Sabin Stephen Campbell Tracy Bergemann Program Chair-Elect 2021 Secretary/Treasurer 2021–2022 Mental Health Statistics Section Benjamin S. Baumer Emily Molfino (MHS) Council of Sections Publications Officer 2021–2022 Chair-Elect 2021 Representative 2021–2023 Kathi Irvine Pilar Lim Sarah Morris Section on Statistical Graphics Program Chair-Elect 2021 Survey Research Methods Section (GRPH) Alessandro De Nadai (SRMS) Chair-Elect 2021 Section on Nonparametric Chair-Elect 2021 Ed Mulrow Statistics (NPAR) Jean Opsomer Program Chair-Elect 2021 Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Carson Sievert Lan Wang Jana Asher Secretary/Treasurer 2021–2022 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Treasurer 2020–2021 Natasha Sahr Yichao Wu Jessica Kohlschmidt Health Policy Statistics Section Treasurer 2021 (HPSS) Howard D. Bondell Publications Officer 2021–2022 Dan Liao Chair-Elect 2021 Publications Officer 2021–2022 Yuanjia Wang Lingzhou Xue Council of Sections Representative 2021–2023 Section on Statistics in Imaging (SI) Section on Physical and Stas Kolenikov Chair-Elect 2021 Engineering Sciences (SPES) Ciprian Crainiceanu Chair-Elect 2021 Education Officer 2021–2022 Lulu Kang Daniell Toth Program Chair-Elect 2021 Simon Vandekar Program Chair-Elect 2021 Section on Teaching of Statistics Jonathan Stallrich in the Health Sciences (TSHS) Council of Sections Representative Chair-Elect 2021 2021–2023 Section for Statistical Programmers and Analysts (SSPA) Jacqueline Milton n Elizabeth Sweeney Chair-Elect 2021 Section on Statistical Learning and Data Science (SLDM) Whitney Worley Chair-Elect 2021 Program Chair-Elect 2021 Ali Shojaie Gabriel Odom

8 amstat news july 2020 ASA Members Lead at Los Alamos Amstat News regularly profiles government statisticians. For this issue, we feature two leaders from the statistics group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Kary Myers is the current group co-lead. Joanne Wendelberger started at LANL in 1992 and has been project leader, deputy group leader, group leader, and acting deputy division leader. She recently returned to full-time technical work as a senior-level scientist.

Please tell us about your work at down the hall to help bounce LANL, including how you came to ideas around. Some of my most work at LANL, the positions held impactful work has resulted there, and your prior training. from analysis and visualization After completing my master’s of large-scale simulation models degree, I worked as a statistical and design and analysis of aging consultant at General Motors experiments for materials and Research Laboratories. Exposure components. My greatest per- to a variety of statistical problems sonal satisfaction has come from arising in automotive applica- serving as group leader of the LANL Statistical Sciences Group, Joanne R. Wendelberger tions motivated me to return to Wisconsin, where I completed where I could support my fellow has been a statistician my PhD in statistics working group members in their techni- at Los Alamos National with George Box. While working cal endeavors and careers. One Laboratory since 1992. on my dissertation, I saw an ad in of the projects I am most proud She holds a bachelor’s Amstat News for a statistician at of is a current collaboration with degree in mathematics and Los Alamos National Laboratory. researchers at The University economics from Oberlin I wasn’t really looking for jobs of Texas at Austin on an educa- College and master’s and yet, but the position looked like tional research project focused on PhD degrees in statistics from a unique professional opportu- understanding factors that influence success in pursuing STEM the University of Wisconsin- nity located in the mountains of degrees and careers. Madison. Her research Northern New Mexico. I decided to take a leap and have remained interests include design and What advice would you offer at LANL for 28 years as a techni- analysis of experiments, cal staff member, project leader, younger statisticians and stu- statistical intervals, errors deputy group leader, group lead- dents who might be interested and uncertainty, analysis and er, acting deputy division leader, in working for the government? visualization of large-scale and senior-level scientist. There are abundant opportuni- simulations, and education ties for statisticians to contribute statistical skills to different modeling. She has been active What do you like most about working as a statistician at LANL? types of statistical problems and in ASA chapters and sections, What’s most challenging? What applications in the government conference organization, and work/accomplishments are you sector. Working in government editorial service. Wendelberger most proud of? provides opportunities to con- is a fellow of the American The LANL Statistical Sciences tribute to issues that affect people Statistical Association and Group develops and applies sta- in many ways. Look beyond the a recipient of the American tistical methods motivated by immediate tasks and see how you Society for Quality William G. interdisciplinary challenges. I can connect to broader efforts Hunter Award. enjoy working in collaboration and longer-term opportunities. I with amazing colleagues in sta- have always advised students and tistics and other fields. Having early-career statisticians that a job a group of about 30 statisticians is what you make it and to think means there is always someone about your job not just as a job but as part of a lifelong career. I

july 2020 amstat news 9 have found that being involved provides endless opportunities make modifications or develop in the ASA and other profes- for creativity and experimenta- new approaches. sional societies has benefitted my tion that draw upon my statisti- career immensely. In particular, cal background and knowledge. Tell us about your training and I encourage statisticians to get I have traveled extensively with career path before arriving at involved in sections and interest destinations providing cultural Los Alamos. groups that can provide a techni- experiences, adventure, and I started my career at Carnegie cal/professional focus, network- the opportunity to help others, Mellon, where I earned my ing opportunities, ongoing learn- including Mount Kilimanjaro, undergraduate degree in statistics ing, and other benefits. the Himalayas, Mount Fuji, with a minor in computer sci- the Galapagos Islands, and ence. That’s when I began doing How has your statistical work Cameroon. Most of all, I enjoy collaborative, interdisciplinary changed over your tenure with spending time with my family, research, including working with LANL, and where do you see including my husband and fellow a team of statisticians, computer statistical work heading in an statistician, Jim, whom I met in scientists, and astrophysicists era of machine learning, AI, and graduate school; my three daugh- to study the Sloan Digital Sky data science? ters, Barbara, Beth, and Laura— Survey. The faculty recruited me After progressing from purely tech- two of whom are statisticians; and to join a new joint PhD program nical roles to a series of R&D lead- my granddaughter, Genevieve. between the statistics department ership roles, I transitioned back to JSM has been a professional and and what later became the world’s full-time technical work with the family destination for decades! first machine learning depart- perspectives of both a researcher ment. After winning a fellowship and a manager. I have witnessed from AT&T Labs to support a change over time from small six years of graduate work, I did focused projects to larger, more Please tell us about the summer internships in AT&T’s complex challenges. I see a trend Statistical Sciences Group at Los artificial intelligence department, toward more integrated approach- Alamos National Laboratory and their machine learning depart- es to problem solving with increas- the projects you work on. ment, and then at a machine ing interaction across both the Our group has almost 30 scien- learning startup. For my PhD scientific components and the tists—I love saying “I’m a scien- thesis, I worked with large data different aspects of data collec- tist!” —most with a PhD in sta- sets to combine video of the sur- tion and analysis. I currently serve tistics. We’re very much an applied face of a brain with physiological as the analysis lead for an analyt- group, by which I mean our work measurements like blood pres- ics project at LANL where opera- typically starts with a consequen- sure and heart rate. Knowing I tional data streams are integrated tial scientific challenge, such as didn’t want a career in academia, into a variety of analyses to support predicting the impact of hurricanes I applied to become a scientist at data-informed decision-making. I on the power grid, estimating the Los Alamos instead. see statistics continuing to provide chemical composition of rocks on a rigorous foundation for many Mars, forecasting COVID-19 cases What do you like most about work- of the methods used in machine and deaths, or evaluating the state ing as a statistician at Los Alamos? learning, AI, and data science, as of the nuclear stockpile. We then What’s most challenging? well as a structured approach to explore the data sets—ranging In the best jobs, you work on uncertainty, while other disciplines from massive to meager—that we projects you’re excited about with bring additional concepts and can use to address that challenge, people you enjoy being around, tools for analysis, computation, and we determine what methods and I get both here. We tackle and efficient work flows. will be appropriate. We’re extreme- amazing problems with some of ly data driven, whether those data the top scientists and best com- Please tell us about your per- are experimental or simulated or puting resources in the world. sonal interests and hobbies. just what our collaborators have The people in our group are I enjoy daily opportunities for lying around. Sometimes, standard always keen to hear about your exercise—including walking, hik- methods will do the trick—it’s sur- work and help you brainstorm ing, and swimming—that help prising how far linear regression ways of approaching your latest me immensely both physically can get you—but our data violate challenge. I often say that when and mentally. I find that cooking model assumptions a lot, so we someone hires one of us to work

10 amstat news july 2020 Tell us about your position as fit in well. Computing skills will leader of the Statistical Sciences help you stand out as a strong Group at Los Alamos National candidate, whether that’s devel- Laboratory. What about this oping an R package or deploying position appealed to you, and your analyses on a supercomputer. what are your priorities for the And being able to communicate next few years? your work—both the application I’m our deputy group leader, area and your methodology—to which means I help with every- a smart audience that doesn’t have Kary Myers is a scientist thing from hiring decisions to your expertise will make you a cov- and deputy group leader student programs to sharing our eted collaborator. in the Statistical Sciences group’s accomplishments with To join our group at Los Alamos, you’ll need to be able to Group at Los Alamos National a larger audience. I’m also still a obtain a Department of Energy Laboratory. At Los Alamos, she scientist and have several technical leadership roles, including security clearance that usually has been involved with a range guiding teams studying Mars or requires US citizenship. Some of data-intensive projects, from nuclear reactors. national labs have more flexible examining electromagnetic I’ve enjoyed this role because citizenship requirements than measurements to aiding large- I get to support and showcase so we do, so check each job post- scale computer simulations many smart people working on ing for details. to developing analyses for such a wide range of projects and How does one find out about chemical spectra from the Mars initiatives. It also has enabled me opportunities for internships Science Laboratory Curiosity to continue growing CoDA, the and employment at LANL? Conference on Data Analysis, a Rover. She is an ASA Fellow We are hiring, pandemic or no and has served as an associate biennial event that Earl Lawrence and I founded in 2012 to feature pandemic! And this summer, we’re editor for the Annals of Applied data-driven research across the learning how to do our interviews Statistics and Journal of Department of Energy. online, instead of onsite. To see Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Over the next few years, I’d the job posting for our scientist She created and organizes like to expand and formalize our positions and learn more about CoDA, the Conference on Data academic connections—includ- our group, visit stat.lanl.gov. Analysis, to showcase data- ing having faculty visit for a week If you’re thinking about an internship, contact people in our driven research across the or a summer or a year—and con- group who are working on top- Department of Energy. tinuing to engage with students through internships or by pro- ics that interest you. The staff viding challenging data for their profiles at stat.lanl.gov are a good on their project, they’re actu- thesis work. place to start, as is browsing our ally gaining the expertise of our Google Scholar pages to see what entire group. What makes someone a good we’re publishing. Many of our The group has several defini- candidate to work in your group current group members start- tions of success. We value pub- or at another national lab as a ed out as summer interns, so I lishing and proposal writing but statistician? encourage you to talk with them don’t require either. Some people We love to see people who have to learn more about their experi- are entrepreneurial about creat- worked collaboratively on applied ences and to hear about beautiful ing opportunities to pursue the problems and made the effort northern New Mexico! n work they want to do. Others to know the subject matter as are tremendous at lending their much as the statistical methods. statistical knowledge to support If you’ve worked with a variety some of the most critical missions of challenging data sets and can in the nation. The challenge lies articulate what made them chal- in ensuring that such a diverse lenging and how that steered your group can thrive. methodology decisions, you’ll

july 2020 amstat news 11 A Glimpse into the CDC’s Innovation, Technology, and Analytics Task Force Amanda Malloy, ASA Director of Development

What work is the data analysis team responsible for? What is your part? We are responsible for the commercial laboratory data orders and results being sent to CDC from six commercial laboratories. I am the commercial laboratory data co-lead, and we oversee a team of analysts working to validate and stand up these new data streams. We’re getting all coronavirus- related laboratory tests, regardless of result outcome or type of test, from six commercial laboratories. Stephanie Dietz of the CDC Innovation, Technology, and Analytics Task Force We are also responsible for reporting on the data daily and working with other statisticians he Centers for Disease Following is a bit of my and analysts to incorporate the Control and Prevention interview with her (edited data into other reports and mod- (CDC) has been men- slightly for clarity): els. Our daily reports on the data Ttioned or referenced almost daily and the work we’re doing with since the COVID-19 outbreak. How did you end up on other statisticians and analysts Local and state governments, the to incorporate the data into other White House, business owners, and the CDC’s COVID-19 data reports and models are being the general public depend on the analysis team? used by CDC and HHS leader- data, analysis, and guidelines rec- In my normal job, I work in the ship to inform decision-making. ommended by the CDC to make Division of Laboratory Systems Laboratory data testing reports can important decisions. However, not (DLS) as a statistician, analyz- also be seen on the CDC website. everyone knows how complicated ing national laboratory test it is to collect, clean, and analyze result data. At the beginning of What does your typical the data related to the pandemic March, another division in our and communicate it in a way that is center, the Division of Health workday look like? easy to understand. Information Systems (DHIS), I am working from home now. There are statisticians work- started the process of receiving We have daily stand-ups and ing tirelessly to wrangle and SARS-CoV-2 laboratory data meetings, which were already in analyze data and come up with orders and results from commer- place prior to the response and innovative data visualizations cial laboratories. The technical working from home. The hardest anyone can understand. That’s complexities of this task required part of my day is working with not an easy task! Therefore, when a collaboration between DHIS a toddler knocking on my office I was given the opportunity to and DLS. As a result, staff from door! While I miss asking my col- talk to Stephanie Dietz, a statisti- DHIS and DLS were deployed to leagues to come over and look at cian at the CDC who is part of the CDC Data and Analytics Task my screen, I am so impressed with the Innovation, Technology, and Force and I was asked to co-lead the technology and innovation Analytics Task Force (currently the effort of validating the com- available to get our jobs done. focused on COVID-19), I jumped mercial laboratory data for CDC. I don’t currently have a “typi- at the chance. cal” workday. Every day has been

12 amstat news july 2020 varied and different, with unique and unexpected challenges. It ASA Releases Statement on A Glimpse into the CDC’s Innovation, can range from technical issues to fun analytic questions to requests with very quick turn- Government Data Experts Technology, and Analytics Task Force arounds. I used to joke that there was no such thing as a statistical errors or bias can easily appear, emergency, but this response has he American Statistical leading to misleading and po- turned that on its head. Association released the following statement tentially damaging public health What are some of the Trecently on the role of data consequences. When experts’ experts in state and local govern- data are taken out of their hands, major technical chal- ments during the COVID-19 their analyses politicized, or lenges facing you and pandemic. The statement has their expertise mocked—rather been sent to US state governors than valued—disinformation the team? For example, is and public health officials. emerges. If experts have to fear your technical workflow for their livelihood when the Government officials face chal- integrity of the data and their challenging? lenging decisions during this evidence-based conclusions are Our biggest challenge is data for- COVID-19 pandemic. To make challenged for purely political matting. As I’m sure most ASA good decisions, policymakers reasons, the entire populace members know, data cleaning need timely, accurate, and clear suffers. When it becomes known and validation is often the hard- reports based on the best avail- that experts cannot freely and est and longest part of any ana- able data and science. Profes- independently provide the best lytic process. We are receiving sionals in statistics, data science, possible information and that hundreds of thousands of records epidemiology, and other fields policymakers spurn this informa- from multiple sources, each are ideally suited to produce tion when making decisions, with slightly different formats. accurate and objective informa- public confidence fades and However, we have an outstand- tion to fuel evidence-based public interests are endangered. ing team of statisticians, database decision-making. managers, program coordinators, Scientists abide by high stan- and administrative staff that have Scientific experts and policy- dards of conduct in their work. found quick, accurate, and cre- makers best collaborate when Statisticians, data scientists, ative solutions to ensure our data scientists are able to apply epidemiologists, and other sci- stay flowing and timely. their expertise unfettered and entists who are members of the independent of political influ- American Statistical Association What are some things you ence—and absent the fear of (ASA) know to abide by profes- find yourself doing/think- retaliation, regardless of the sional ethical standards (www. implications of their results amstat.org/ASA/Your-Career/ ing/saying that you never on policymaking. A healthy, Ethical-Guidelines-for-Statistical- thought you would? effective collaborative environ- Practice.aspx). These standards I, for one, never thought ment requires that experts not only demand a high level of I’d consider going to a drive provide the most objective professional integrity from ex- through to pick up dinner a ma- and best possible analyses, perts, but also inform those who jor outing or have happy hour along with their full context. rely on their expertise about the by Zoom. I also never thought This allows policymakers and ethical standards on which they I’d have to teach preschool and decision-makers to integrate can depend. second grade at the same time. I the expert analyses with other can honestly say I never thought considerations to arrive at judi- The ASA urges government I would find myself apologizing cious decisions. The process is officials to work collaboratively to senior leadership at the CDC entirely transparent. with scientific experts for the for my toddler making a cameo good of the people they serve. appearance on our video confer- Decision-making breakdowns Data integrity, rigorous science, ence call. n occur when these collabora- and good decisions go together. tions fail and transparency We stand ready to assist officials dissipates. For example, when in identifying appropriate unbi- data visualizations are produced ased expertise. n without input from the experts,

july 2020 amstat news 13 New ASA Interest Group: Text Analysis

he ASA’s big tent grew bigger recently with the 4. To contribute to the program of the addition of the Text Analysis Interest Group annual Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) (TAIG). The group was petitioned in the fall and other meetings of the American Tof 2018 and formally approved by the Council of Statistical Association and other profes- Sections Executive Committee in March 2019. sional organizations via formal represen- tation in technical sessions and continu- The objectives of the interest group are as follows: ing education opportunities

1. To bring together individuals and groups TAIG serves as the bridge between the main- who have an active interest in text analysis, stream statistical community represented by the text mining, natural language processing ASA and the growing field of text analysis, defined (NLP), and related areas of research through broadly (text mining, natural language processing, their intersections with statistics computational linguistics, web scraping, senti- 2. To promote research in text analysis and ment analysis, topic modeling, GAN text genera- involve statisticians with a wide variety of tion, automated translation, etc.). There has been backgrounds in such work a steady flow of presentations on text analysis and 3. To promote text analysis as an integral part of NLP at ASA conferences over the past five years. modern statistics education, thereby increas- JSM, the Conference on Statistical Practice (CSP), ing awareness of the tools and methods of and the Symposium on Data Science and Statistics text analysis in the statistical community (SDSS) have included at least a dozen presentations each year featuring text analysis methodology and/ or applications.

14 amstat news july 2020 TAIG has had a dynamic start. It held its inau- Looking forward to JSM 2020, TAIG will spon- gural meeting in Denver at JSM 2019, where about sor the invited session Statistics of Social Media, 30 TAIG members convened to introduce them- organized by Juha Alho of the University of selves and plan future work. At the meeting, the Helsinki with presentations by Mike Kearney of the group elected Stas Kolenikov of Abt Associates as University of Missouri, Columbia, Emilio Zagheni chair, recognizing his contributions to the successful of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic launch of the group. He wrote the draft charge, set Research, and Alho and discussion by Frauke up the petition, collected the votes, and interacted Kreuter of the University of Maryland. with the Council of Sections throughout the group TAIG will also sponsor of a topic-contributed creation process. panel—Big Data, Technology Platform, and Digital In December of 2019, the group held an election Innovation with Measurable Impact—organized by for the first full cohort of officers. About a third of Zou with panelists Siddhartha Dalal of Columbia the group members voted. The 2020 elected officers University, Joseph Imperator of Upjohn, Pfizer Inc., for 2021 are as follows: Kolenikov, Lourenco Miranda of Societe Generale, Mike Porath of The Mighty, and May Yamada- • Chair-Elect: Kelly H. Zou, Upjohn, Pfizer Inc. Lifton of SAS Institute. As with any ASA interest group, ASA members • Program Chair-Elect: Jordan Rodu, University can join TAIG for free. Currently, there are more of Virginia than 170 members. To join or learn more about the n • Secretary-Treasurer: Carol Haney, Qualtrics group, visit https://community.amstat.org/taig-group.

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july 2020 amstat news 15 Sections and Interest Groups: A Career Development Perspective

Regulatory-Industry Statistics Workshop), short courses, webinars, and roundtables on diverse topics. Participation in these activities improves technical knowledge and helps members build connections with experts. In addition, many sections and IGs sponsor mentoring, leadership, and networking activities that can be extremely useful for junior statisticians. Some sections have an established mentoring program around conferences, whereas others have Matthew Krachey is a data Ofer Harel is a professor year-round programs (https://community.amstat.org/ scientist at the Expedia Group and the director of graduate ccd/asamentoring). These development opportuni- working on natural language admissions in the department ties can focus on technical topics or soft skills (e.g., processing problems. He is the of statistics at the University presenting, writing, and networking). Because sec- current chair of the Committee of Connecticut. He is chair of tions and IGs are always looking for volunteers and on Career Development. the ASA’s Council of Sections participants in their activities, getting involved is a great way to quickly build a professional network Governing Board and a and develop leadership and organizational skills. member of the Committee on Several sections also hold or support data chal- Career Development. Harel lenges throughout the year. Data challenges such as is also an active member of DataFest are supported by the ASA in general, while numerous ASA sections who Data Expo Challenge is supported by the Statistical began his involvement when Computing and Statistical Graphics sections, for he was a junior researcher. example. These challenges are opportunities to gain access to novel data sets, learn modeling and data processing methods, sharpen programming skills, MORE ONLINE he ASA is a large and diverse organization, and develop professional portfolios that can dem- For a list of bringing together statisticians working in onstrate aptitude and provide interesting conversa- section and areas such as sports, health care, manufac- tion in interviews. Tturing, defense, and national security. Each area interest group Currently, there are 29 sections and 10 IGs. websites, visit may make use of different methodologies and appli- Section membership requires an annual fee (rang- bit.ly/2B8vQqK. cations, so it is a good idea for all statisticians— ing from $5 to $12 per year, reduced for students). especially those in the early phases of their careers— Sections also have formal charters with elected to join a section or interest group (IG) to develop chairs and other officers. ASA members are able to professional skills in the areas of their interest. join a section and receive the first year of member- Sections and IGs are subject-area and/or industry- ship for free as an incentive to get involved with related communities that offer avenues for per- one. Membership in an IG is free and not restricted sonal and professional development. Membership to ASA members. provides opportunities to attend specialty confer- Some of the sections and IGs are more active than ences (e.g., International Conference on Health others, but most have opportunities for students and Policy Statistics), workshops (e.g., Preparing to early-career professionals. Several maintain websites Teach and the ASA Biopharmaceutical Section

16 amstat news july 2020 The ASA Committee on Career Development’s (CCD) mission is to organize and promote activities, information, and materials to aid in the career development of statisticians and data scientists and to excite new interest in careers in these fields. Nominations To achieve this mission, CCD works on a variety of programs, including webinars, Wanted for virtual career office hours, a networking training at JSM, a database of soft skills, and a variety of articles. You can find these Norwood Award materials and more at https://community. amstat.org/ccd/home. he University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Public Health and Department of Biostatistics request Tnominations for the Janet L. Norwood Award for with up-to-date information related to development in the research area. Some have a resources portal, Outstanding Achievement by a Woman in the and others maintain blogs. Before jumping into spe- Statistical Sciences. cific examples, here is a list of general section and Eligible individuals are women who: IG benefits: • Have completed their terminal degree

1. Networking with members who have simi- • Have made extraordinary contributions and lar interests have an outstanding record of service to the statistical sciences, with an emphasis on a. Online discussions in dedicated ASA both their own scholarship and teaching and Community groups leadership of the field in general and women b. In-person meetings at conference mixers in particular c. Mentoring programs • Are willing to deliver a lecture at the award 2. Keeping up to date in your area ceremony a. Scientific program at the Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) How to Nominate b. Continuing education classes, webi- Send a full curriculum vitae accompanied by a letter nars, and roundtables of not more than two pages describing the nature c. Information about special interest con- of the candidate’s contributions. Contributions may ferences be in the area of development and evaluation of statistical methods, teaching of statistics, application 3. Other benefits of statistics, or any other activity that can arguably be a. Section newsletters said to have advanced the field of statistical science. b. Best paper and poster awards at JSM Self-nominations are acceptable, and electronic submissions of nominations are encouraged. c. Leadership opportunities Nominations should be sent to norwoodawd@ d. Sponsored awards uab.edu by August 17. e. Student competitions The winner will be announced by August 31, and the date of the lecture is October 20. A summary of the three major activities of For more information, visit bit.ly/3hFqrbe. n each section and interest group can be found at bit.ly/2NbKZub. Whatever career stage you are in, sections and IGs provide many opportunities for finding community, networking, mentoring, and developing technical and soft skills. n

july 2020 amstat news 17 JSM 2020: Opportunities for Interaction, Learning, Engagement Arvind Rao, University of Michigan, and Xiaoyu Zhai, Facebook Artificial Intelligence Applied Research

n a historic first, JSM 2020 will be held August Roundtable discussions, in particular, offer con- 2–6 virtually (i.e., in an online format) due to versation about topics such as ethics, mentoring, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. academic careers, and data science. Because they IHighlights include the First-Time Attendee are virtual this year, they are free but require an Orientation on Sunday, August 2, at 1:30 p.m. EDT additional registration and have limited space. It is for those new to JSM. There is also the Opening a good idea to sign up early. Mixer at 2:00 p.m. Sunday, where you’ll be shuf- Late-breaking sessions cover one or more technical, fled into various “rooms” to meet up with longtime scientific, or policy-related topics that have arisen recent- friends and make new ones. ly. This year’s topics include COVID-19, data science The Virtual Mentoring Program will provide an postsecondary education, and human trafficking. opportunity for students and early-career attendees For JSM details, visit the website at ww2.amstat. to gain advice from experienced colleagues. If you are org/meetings/jsm/2020 or online program at ww2. interested in participating as a mentor or a mentee, amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2020/onlineprogram. n you can complete the requisite application at https:// forms.gle/imde9zTJc9wknqiM9. The JSM program also consists of poster presentations, roundtable discussions, technical sessions, and countless other meetings and activities.

18 amstat news july 2020 Opportunities at JSM for Applied Statisticians

Date Day Time Session ID Topic

8/2/2020 Sunday 1:30-2:30 p.m. 220109 First-Time Attendee Orientation

8/2/2020 Sunday 2:00-3:30 p.m. 220111 JSM Opening Mixer

Everyone Counts in ASA: An Informational Walk 8/3/2020 Monday 1:00-2:50 p.m. 219368 Through the Organization, Activities, and Opportunities — Invited Panel

Translational Statistics: Problems in Preclinical Studies 8/4/2020 Tuesday 10:00-11:50 a.m. 219547 and a Call for Change — Topic-Contributed Papers

Sports Analytics Outside the Big Four 8/4/2020 Tuesday 10:00-11:50 a.m. 219685 — Topic-Contributed Papers

Advances in the Analysis of Competing and Semi-Com- 8/5/2020 Wednesday 10:00-11:50 a.m. 219436 peting Risks Data in Medical Research — Invited Papers

Statistical Advancements in Neurodegeneration Trial 8/5/2020 Wednesday 10:00-11:50 a.m. 219729 Designs and Analyses — Topic-Contributed Papers

Women in Statistics: How to Survive (and Thrive!) in 8/5/2020 Wednesday 12:00-1:00 p.m. 375 Academia — Roundtable Discussion

The Statistician as an Investigator and Educator, Not 8/6/2020 Thursday 12:00-1:00 p.m. 516 Just a Power Calculator on Clinical Research Protocols — Roundtable Discussion

july 2020 amstat news 19 ASA Members Stop the Presses with New Book About Disease Outbreaks Regina Nuzzo, ASA Senior Advisor for Statistics Communication and Media Innovation

t’s not often statisticians get to The authors managed to quickly add breaking shout, “Stop the presses,” but information about COVID-19 and the SARS- that’s what longtime ASA mem- CoV-2 virus at a point when the number of world- Ibers Steve Rigdon and Ronald wide cases was only 700. Within weeks, that num- Fricker found themselves doing ber would jump to 70,000. earlier this year. This kind of mind-boggling exponential growth Just as their book, Monitoring is illustrated in the opening pages of the book. The the Health of Populations by first chapter kicks off with a fictional scenario of a Tracking Disease Outbreaks: pair of ecotourists from New York who pick up a Saving Humanity from the new avian flu strain in a Southeast Asia live meat Next Plague—the latest in the market and unwittingly spread it to six continents ASA’s collaborative series with within days. It’s a chillingly prescient story told with CRC Press—was going to the careful statistical detail in a voice that’s accessible to printer in early 2020, news statisticians and nonstatisticians alike. was emerging from China “Given the success of public health interven- about some bizarre pneu- tions, someone casually reading this preface might monia cases. think this book is purely historical and they no lon- “By January, we had ger need to worry about massive disease outbreaks,” heard just a little bit about the the authors write in the preface. “For example, one novel coronavirus,” said Rigdon, a professor might think the days of the 1918 Spanish Flu that in the department of epidemiology and biostatistics killed somewhere between three and five percent of MORE ONLINE at Saint Louis University. “By mid to late January, it the world’s population, or the ‘Black Death’ bubon- For more was clear we would have to at least add a paragraph ic plague of the 14th century that killed about a information about the disease. We asked the editors if we could third of Europe’s population, are long gone. But about or to buy make just a few changes.” that would be wrong.” “We actually stopped the printing of the book Now, of course, even casual readers will know the book, visit because it was literally going to press just as the better. But thanks to this new book, they will also bit.ly/30MwnJs. Wuhan outbreak was starting,” said Fricker, a pro- know why and how this all happened. fessor in the department of statistics at Virginia Tech For more information about the ASA-CRC Series and associate dean for faculty affairs and administra- on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society, visit tion in the college of science. bit.ly/3ea2JSi. n

20 amstat news july 2020 columns STATtr@k Don’t Eat Grandpa: Tips for Writing Well in a Nonacademic Setting Valerie Nirala, ASA Editor and Content Strategist he transition from writing research papers to writing magazine articles can be quite diffi- Parallel Structure cult. After all, no professor ever required a Tmagazine article about scalable Bayesian inference One aspect of grammar that makes a distinctive that could be read by a general audience. Most, if difference in how well your message is received is not all, prepare their students to write journal arti- parallelism. Simply put, this is using the same pattern cles. Writing for a nonacademic publication such as to show two or more ideas have the same level of STATtr@k, however, requires a few considerations importance. Following are examples of both the use and beyond knowing your subject well. Let’s chat. nonuse of parallelism: No Introduction Necessary Charles thought he would go to the store, buy candy, When writing a nonacademic article, you can jump and his friends would be there to share. right into the meat of your message. There is no Charles thought he would go to the store, buy candy, reason to lay out what you are going to tell your and share it with his friends. readers, because readers of news or magazine articles are not doing research. Sure, they are most likely Can you tell which sentence uses parallelism and reading your article to learn something, but they which doesn’t? want to learn quickly and generally, which leads to The first sentence does not use parallelism because the my next point. final clause (his friends would be there to share) is passive First Things First and changes the subject from Charles to his friends. Your key message should always come at the begin- The second sentence uses parallelism because Charles ning of the article, with everything else you write continues to be the subject throughout and the verbs are backing up your premise. You can think of it as all active. Bonus: It’s easier to read. starting with your conclusion and qualifying it with your methods and results. to communicate with a broad audience. When you Details Matter don’t use proper grammar, readers will know some- By details, I mean proper grammar, spelling, and punc- thing doesn’t “sound” right, even if they can’t point tuation. You have probably seen the following example: out what’s wrong. This is called a stumbling block. Stumbling blocks cause readers to stop briefly and Let’s eat, Grandpa. wonder what they missed or even reread a sentence Let’s eat Grandpa. before moving on. Simply put, they are distractions that keep readers from understanding your message One sentence, two distinctive meanings (one a (see Parallel Structure). little macabre) based on the use or lack of a comma. Punctuation sets the rhythm for language and can Friends Don’t Let Friends … make what you have to say both clear and easy to Until you get the hang of nonacademic writing, read. Without punctuation, readers can stumble over make sure to ask a friend with more experience sentences and your meaning can become ambiguous. writing for a news outlet or blog to read over your Spelling is important because you can easily work. A good friend will want to help and won’t change the meaning of a sentence with the wrong judge you. spelling (e.g., There’s no sense splitting hairs/There’s The good news is being able to communicate no sense splitting hares [ouch!]). Worse, you can with a general audience will make communicating cause your message to lose credibility. It’s difficult to with a scientific audience even easier. Not only will put trust in someone’s point of view when they don’t you have the knowledge and vocabulary down, you know the difference between hair and hare. will be able to finesse away any stumbling blocks. n Grammar is, of course, the glue that holds your message together. Without it, you would not be able

july 2020 amstat news 21 columns

With a PhD in statistical STATS4GOOD astrophysics, David Corliss leads a data science team at Fiat JSM 2020—Everyone Counts: Chrysler. He is the founder of Peace-Work, a volunteer cooperative Data for the Public Good of statisticians and data scientists providing analytic support for he Joint Statistical Meetings—one of the and can say there is a set of skills and practices that charitable groups and applying statistical largest statistics events in the world—is can help make it work well. JSM gives all of us an methods in issue-driven going to be virtual this year for the first opportunity to practice and develop remote collabo- advocacy. Ttime. The spotlight will be on the important work ration and partnerships. As most of us are becoming we share: Everyone Counts: Data for the Public Good. more familiar with virtual meetings, JSM is offer- This focus means a long list of events and presenta- ing a new, global opportunity to connect outside tions, making JSM 2020 the largest, most diverse and after the event. We can set up our own virtual Data for Good event in history! meetings to leverage the connections we make at Such a large conference with so many oppor- JSM, explore the research more deeply than is pos- tunities for meeting, learning, and collaborating sible in a short presentation, develop new resources, brings with it some complexity. In terms of logistics, and forge new partnerships. JSM has become the nQuery has published a helpful blog post at https:// catalyst for virtual collaboration in Data for Good blog.statsols.com/jsm-2020 about the conference with throughout the year. lots of useful details all in one place. You can also There are so many great talks this year; using the check out the online program at ww2.amstat.org/ search engine will help you find what interests you meetings/jsm/2020/onlineprogram and use the search most. With this year’s theme, the keynotes will be engine to find the presentations and other events. of particular interest, however. Also following JSM’s As for the virtual format, I have been working theme, the Caucus for Women in Statistics, Statistics with colleagues remotely for a number of years Without Borders (SWB), and the Social Statistics

22 amstat news july 2020 columns

Section will present Data Science for the Public This new working environment, rich with oppor- Good August 3 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:50 p.m. EDT tunities, will be on full display at JSM. Now is the with a series of talks from leading D4G research- time to make new connections, learn new skills, and ers. Another session that stands out is Statistical start new collaborations. The virtual events we see at Humanitarian Groups Making a Difference from JSM and other conferences can be both the impe- SWB. It will feature presentations from SWB; tus and the classroom for ongoing virtual meetings, DataKind; Human Rights Data Analytics Group; hackathons, and other new activities. The result is and the AAAS Scientific Responsibility, Human a greater democratization of analytics, giving new Rights, and Law Program. The session is August 5 meaning to JSM 2020’s theme of Everyone Counts. from 10:00 a.m. to 11:50 a.m. EDT. We are working in a new, globally connected envi- On August 4 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:50 a.m. ronment in which every researcher, student, retiree, EDT, the Committee on Scientific Freedom and and volunteer has opportunities like never before to Human Rights will sponsor an invited panel— make an impact with data for the public good. Statistics at the Border: Migration, Detention, and Assimilation. Another important issue of the day, Get Involved the COVID-19 pandemic will be explored in no In D4G opportunities this month, check out fewer than four presentations, including a talk about the AAAS Science & SciLifeLab Prize for Young data visualization and how misinformation spreads Scientists, awarded annually to early-career scientists by Zoe Liu in Visual Stories That Count! in four areas in the life sciences with great poten- Other sessions tied to this year’s theme include tial for Data for Good, including ecology and the Enhancing the Dissemination of Data for the Public environment. Applications are due July 15. Find out Good on Monday morning, Massive Administrative more at www.sciencemag.org/prizes/science-scilifelab- Data to Advance the Public Good on Wednesday prize-young-scientists. from 1:00 p.m. to 2:50 p.m. EDT, and Achieving I’m writing this column during ongoing pro- Your Potential in Statistics Through Different tests by people seeking racial justice. Something I Organizations, presented by the Royal Statistical have observed is frustration about calls for action Society Thursday from 1:00 p.m. to 2:50 p.m. EDT. that have been heeded little while exclusion, mar- In addition to topics specific to Data for Good, ginalization, and violence have continued. Even as attendees will want to look for presentations about large-scale protests have captured the attentions of statistical methodologies needed in our research millions, the deadly pandemic of poverty continues (e.g., Kristian Lum’s talk, “Statistical Challenges in with no vaccine in sight. The protests, COVID- Casualty Estimation,” on Monday afternoon). 19, and poverty are all linked, affecting the same JSM 2020’s virtual format and lower fees make it marginalized populations in vastly disproportion- more accessible than ever. Taking some time to plan, ate numbers. As our society struggles to find more using the online program’s search engine, and decid- durable solutions, statistical science is playing a vital ing which talks and events to attend will do a lot to role in identifying root causes and recommending make the most of it. If you aren’t able to attend, you strategies to effect real and lasting change. This is my can still mine the search engine for new ideas, case personal invitation to each of you to consider new studies, connections, and methods. ways and new science to meet the challenge. In the So many conferences have gone virtual due to fight for human dignity, everyone has a role to play, the COVID-19 pandemic, creating a new environ- and the science we bring is one of the most powerful ment for learning and collaborating. The immense weapons in the arsenal of peace and justice. n impact of the pandemic on how we work won’t go away with the lessening of this crisis. Right now, new practices and procedures are being developed, refined, and implemented on scales as small as video conversations between two colleagues and as large as the biggest statistical meeting in North America. This is the new normal.

july 2020 amstat news 23 statistician's view

Lessons Learned and Remaining Challenges for Online Seminars and Conferences Lauren Kennedy, Monash University; Guillaume Basse, Stanford University; Andrew Gelman, Columbia University; Guido Imbens, Stanford University; Yajuan Si, University of Michigan; Dominik Rothenhausler, Stanford University; and Jann Spiess, Stanford University

he spread of COVID-19 has slowed econo- An obvious solution is to move conferences and mies and stopped travel throughout the seminars online, much like regular courses, but this world. For academics, classes and research has proven challenging for a number of reasons. As a Tcollaborations have moved online. But the pandem- community, we have had relatively little experience ic has disrupted two other essential aspects of aca- organizing online conferences and seminars com- demic life: conferences and seminars, which have pared to online courses, which have been around for the most part been canceled. Existing collabora- for at least a decade on various platforms. tive research (except when involving laboratory or As an attempt to accelerate our understanding field work) can easily move online but cannot of this new environment, we share our experiences replace conferences and seminars, which are key from running a two-day online conference (jazzystats. opportunities for developing new collaborations, com/mrp2020) on multilevel regression and post- especially for early-career researchers who are also stratification and two ongoing virtual seminar series losing opportunities to promote research contribu- on causal inference (sites.google.com/view/ocis) and tions, gain valuable feedback, and interact with more econometrics (www.chamberlainseminar.org), each senior colleagues outside their advisers’ networks. with hundreds of participants. The move to online

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meetings presents challenges but also many oppor- One potential solution would be to use the hand tunities that are worth tapping into. raise function or ask participants to post questions The online conference (conducted by LK, YS, in the chat. However, even when encouraged, these and AG) and the online seminar series (conduct- were not readily undertaken. ed by GI, GB, DR, and JS) were both conducted through Zoom. Some of the advice and reflections Schedule here are specific to the technological possibilities of The online conference was hastily moved from an Zoom, but others we believe stand more broadly. in-person schedule to an online schedule, and so it The online conference took a planned workshop retained the overall outline of a typical conference: with 20 speakers and 50 participants, originally session, break, session, lunch, session, break, session. scheduled to be held in a single room on campus, The online seminars were always intended to be and opened it up to a conference with more than virtual, so the typical structure was adapted to a 150 participants. The seminar series were set up as virtual format, with the seminars interspersed with virtual meetings from the outset and met for one opportunities for questions, a discussant at the end, hour or 90 minutes, respectively, with new speak- and one of the coauthors available in text chat to ers and discussants each week, regularly attracting answer questions immediately. several hundred attendees. Accessibility and Cost Technology All the authors hoped the move to an online con- The conference was run using a Zoom profession- ference would create greater diversity and accessi- al account, which allows for up to 300 attendees bility. In some ways, this worked out. The seminar and a 24-hour meeting time. The seminar series series would never have been able to schedule such were run in webinar format, which has a number a geographically diverse group of speakers had they of additional features, including moderation, live been run in person at a single location. The confer- broadcasting, and a high number of view-only ence, which was moved online after the speakers attendees. The conference also used Google forms were invited, saw a surge in the number of partici- extensively for various organizing tasks. pants and geographic diversity, and the registration It is hard to participate in an online conference fee was moved from $50 to $0. We tried to reach if you do not have a good internet connection. broad audiences using an open webpage where Even leaving this aside, there were other accessibil- anyone could register and advertising on blogs and ity challenges. Attendees were allowed to use videos through email lists. at the start of the online conference, but we eventu- However, the virtue of being virtual did not ally had to turn off all video capabilities to reduce solve all accessibility challenges. One immediate the internet demand. Over the two days, stream- challenge was the time zone. The conference was ing the conference took about 5 Gb. The seminars held in US Eastern time (EST), which covers late had one video stream, which switched between the afternoon to late evening in Europe, but the main moderator, the speaker, and the discussant, along organizer (LK) was in Australia, where it was an with a back-up plan for the speaker to share slides overnight conference. Likewise, the seminar series before the talk and call into the meeting if necessary. were hosted at an accessible time for Europe and In-person conferences can be a challenge for indi- North America. Unfortunately, the usual argument viduals with visual impairment. Immediate slide for hosting the majority of international confer- sharing and being able to view the content on one’s ences in North America and Europe still holds for own screen potentially made the written content eas- online conferences—it makes sense to host an event ier to view. However, poor color schemes were just at a time that is most convenient for the majority as common. In addition, because participants posted of attendees. questions in the chat, it seemed more difficult to An advantage of online meetings is their cost remember to repeat questions into the microphone. is close to zero—no need to pay for airline flights,

july 2020 amstat news 25 statistician's view

hotels, and conference rooms—but societies using born of a necessity to adapt to an online world, the conferences as a source of income will need to con- resulting flow of presentation only interrupted at sider the cost structure. One question going forward intended points has produced results superior to in- is whether more conferences and seminars should go person seminar presentations in front of small audi- online to save the cost and environmental impact of ences (which are interrupted all too frequently) or in-person meetings. huge audiences (where nobody asks questions). Online seminars make it easier to overcome logistical barriers to diversity for both presenters Networking and members of the audience. Yet, in a world where Face-to-face meetings facilitate social interaction a few big online seminars and conferences replace and soft information transfer. Meeting academic many small opportunities to present work, they may idols, speaking face-to-face with colleagues, and not resolve—and even increase—the exclusivity of having discussions over coffee are valuable to aca- speaking spots. We therefore think inclusiveness demic endeavors. The online conference tried sev- along many dimensions, as well as a healthy num- eral methods to encourage and allow for this net- ber of diverse seminars and conferences organized working with limited success. by equally diverse groups of scholars, should not be We first tried breakout rooms at the end of each taken for granted. session during the scheduled 15-minute break periods of the conference, with participants randomly Presenting and Moderation partitioned into rooms of three or four people each Talking to silence is hard. Talking to silence with- using the breakout function in Zoom. The techno- out any feedback is harder. This can be mitigated by logical functionality worked well, but the practice having one or two people (enthusiastic nodders and was not successful. The conversations were awkward smilers) to give visual feedback, but this can increase and many people did not join the rooms (leading internet demands. to the host reshuffling people). By the third break Timing has been difficult. Whoever thought of session, few people were participating. the flashcards at the front of the audience was a The conference also used a birds-of-a-feather ses- genius; none of the authors has found a good alter- sion at the end of the first day. For this, ideas for ses- native. Options include verbally interrupting (dis- sion themes were solicited, participants elected their rupts flow), posting in chat (often missed or seen session through a Google form, and then they were at the wrong time), or posting text overlay on the allocated to breakout rooms to discuss. This seemed videos (likewise). The best option may be to give to work much better than the breakout rooms dur- the time control job to each speaker, who would be ing the break periods. We conjecture this might told in advance that it is their responsibility to pause have been because there was a purpose and a natural when appropriate, answer questions from chat when conversation leader/organizer. they see fit, and end on time (or else be stopped Following this insight, we used breakout rooms abruptly). When speaking remotely, it is not so dif- at the end of each session, with each hosted by a ficult to keep an eye on the clock and to occasionally speaker from that session, the next day. Participants check the chat box, if you know this is your job. who wished to join were either randomly allocated But the move to online seminars also offers new or could elect a specific speaker. This consistently opportunities to improve the flow of presentations led to more participant engagement throughout and the quality of questions. It can be difficult for the remainder of the networking sessions, and we the presenter to keep track of a chat window, so the encourage this format for every session—not just online seminars have been relying on a moderator those preceding breaks. to curate questions and call on the most relevant One aspect of in-person meetings that has been ones during breaks chosen by the speaker. Although difficult for us to duplicate is the flexibility with

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which a meeting participant can come up to indi- session for participants who are unable to attend MORE ONLINE viduals or small groups, along with the correspond- and produces a product that can be useful for years Check out the virtual ing ease of breaking off interactions and moving to to come. However, there is a concern that recording the next one. If there were some additional feature could inhibit active participation by less-established conference and two that allowed participants to see who was in the researchers, both in presenting and questioning, virtual seminars breakout rooms and move freely between them, and so we chose to only post slides for the confer- organized by the this might get closer to this experience. ence. In addition, there are privacy concerns where authors: jazzystats.com/ For one of our online seminars, we imple- participants are working from home. mrp2020, sites.google. mented additional networking sessions afterward, Overall com/view/ocis, and in which we particularly encouraged graduate chamberlainseminar.org. students to participate. Whereas the main semi- COVID has interrupted academic work, includ- nar was set up as a webinar in which only speaking moving seminars and conferences online. We ers were visible, these side sessions allowed direct think these online conferences and seminars— exchange between all participants. While hardly often started as a quick replacement to the holes feasible for larger groups, this worked reasonably COVID has created in academic life—are here to well with the 20–30 people typically signed up for stay beyond the current crisis. post-talk discussions. It could be worth putting in The growing number of online seminars and additional effort to facilitate building connections conferences do some things better than the in- (e.g., sign-up sheets at scheduled fifteen-minute person events they replace: They are more inclu- group meetings after the seminar), following the sive, providing wide audiences with high-quality successful model of the birds-of-a-feather meetings content and reducing travel barriers for speakers at the end of the day in the conference. and discussants; they allow for innovation in how questions are asked and answered; and they reduce Openness the economic, ecological, and personal strain from There are benefits and costs to making an academ- traveling. However, they lack when it comes to ic event open. Both the conference and seminars important networking functions. were open to all, but the setups were different. The We think online conferences and seminars can conference used a standard registration form, from unlock additional potential once we put more which an email list was made and Zoom link and emphasis on these “soft” aspects, which go beyond password were emailed to all registered partici- presentations and discussions to consider the larger pants 24 hours ahead of time. This enabled us to role of seminars and conferences in academic life. allow full participation from all participants dur- Conferences and seminars, large or small, ing the conference with limited moderation. The tend to follow the same structure and format seminars, in contrast, were fully open, with pub- when conducted face-to-face. Moving to an lic links. There were some challenges with Zoom online version is not as simple as it sounds and bombing in earlier seminar sessions, but the meet- has a number of challenges academia will need ing was not interrupted and attendees did not see to understand in the coming months. There will messages sent by the Zoom bombers due to mod- not be a-one-size-fits-all solution, so experimen- eration and limits on participation. tation with varying formats and side programs Another decision is whether to record sessions. for networking should continue. An advantage of online meetings is how easy it is For our large seminar series, we are experiment- to record. With Zoom, this can be done with the ing with different formats, such as varying between press of a button, and indeed the seminar series one paper in a seminar, three shorter papers on were recorded and the sessions posted on YouTube. similar topics, or one methodological paper and Recording sessions enhances the accessibility of the one applied paper. We also plan to experiment

july 2020 amstat news 27 statistician's view

of moving from room to room, or choosing among parallel sessions, can stimulate unexpected interactions. Snack and coffee sessions lower the barrier to initiating conversations with strangers. In contrast, the flatness of the computer screen and the intrusion of everyday life in our homes can make all online interactions feel the same. Therefore, it may be beneficial for organizers to come up with ways to provide a seminar- or conference-like feel- ing. We can’t fly people to a distant city or trap them in a hotel for two days, but we can prime the pump by demonstrating informal conversation of the sort present at fun and productive academic meetings and creating structures that enable participants to do so as well. At the same time, we should make use of the with panels on particular topics, with questions advantages of online meetings, most notably in solicited in advance. Having multiple presenters technology and accessibility. For example, technical makes it easier to mix senior and junior people talks can share code in a way that would be more without losing the audience. We should be much challenging in a face-to-face conference or seminar. more proactive in trying out formats that would be And, perhaps most importantly, online seminars are difficult to do in live seminars. Not all of these new accessible to people with disabilities or without the ideas will work, but we should take advantage of the financial resources to travel to a distant location. opportunity to learn by experimentation. We hope in the not-so-distant future to return to For a small conference that was intended to have close, in-person interactions. When this happens, let us a small burden for participation, a more closed con- make an effort to use online tools to be more inclusive. ference enhances a community feel and increases Finally, we think it is important to not just exper- participation from early-career researchers. However, iment, but to share what we have learned from this for greater dissemination and impact (such as a larg- experimentation. As we all innovate around creating er annual meeting or seminar series), a more open engaging and diverse academic online experiences format makes sense. and learn to overcome technological challenges in Face-to-face conferences are implicitly structured their realization, we can stand on the shoulders of a by their physical constraints. A meeting can have 20 community that tries the same—across continents or 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 participants. A workshop and disciplines. n that meets around a conference table will feel different than a session held in a traditional classroom, which in turn has a norm of participation that is different from a lecture in an auditorium. The very act

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july 2020 amstat news 29 Welcome!

THE PANDEMIC JSM David Banks, JSM 2020 Program Chair s Futurama’s Professor Hubert Farnsworth Halloran (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research says in his catchphrase announcement of Center and the University of Washington), Andrew potential disaster, “Good news, everyone! Lawson (Medical University of South Carolina), TheA JSM is going virtual.” But I think we can make Dionne Price (US Food and Drug Administration), it work. and Lance Waller (Emory University Rollins School I write this at the end of May to make the June of Public Health). 1 submission deadline for the July issue of Amstat Another late-breaking session was organized News, so there are still details being sorted out by by Sir Bernard Silverman (Oxford University) the amazing ASA staff. But there is no question this regarding a National Academies panel report that will be a different JSM experience than we have ever appeared this year on statistical methods to estimate had, and all the program chairs are determined to the amount, kind, and location of human traffick- make this the best experience we can possibly manage. ing. The third late-breaking session was organized First, I am delighted to report that Nick Jewell by Eric Kolaczyk (Boston University) to showcase of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical a recently completed National Academies report on Medicine and the University of California, Berkeley data science education. and Britta Jewell of Imperial College have agreed Normally, JSM has only two late-breaking ses- to give a father-daughter public lecture that will be sions, but the Committee on Meetings was com- open to the world. Their topic is the epidemiology fortable approving three given the strength of the of the coronavirus outbreak and its likely social and three proposals and going virtual this year. economic impacts. Sadly, we shall have three memorial sessions for Second, we shall have an invited session that hon- four distinguished statisticians. One is for David ors the 100th birthday of C. R. Rao. The speakers Wallace (The University of Chicago); one is for Cliff are Sir David Cox (Oxford), Brad Efron (Stanford), Spiegelman (Texas A&M); and one is a shared session and Don Rubin (Harvard, Temple University, and for two eminent British researchers in survey methodol- Tsinghua University). There is a possibility Rao will ogy, Chris Skinner (London School of Economics) and participate, as well. Fred T. M. F. Smith (University of Southampton). Third, I am pleased to announce there will be Now, let me provide a brief layout of the current three late-breaking sessions. One will be a panel thinking about the mechanics of a virtual JSM. The discussion on COVID-19 by Susan Ellenberg meeting will be held Sunday through Thursday, (University of Pennsylvania Perelman School August 2–6. Sunday will start with an orientation of Medicine), Tom Fleming (University of to the virtual meeting platform, an orientation for Washington), Dean Follman (National Institute first-time attendees, and invited posters. Monday of Allergies and Infectious Disease), Elizabeth through Thursday will begin at 9:45 a.m. EDT, and

30 amstat news july 2020 JSM 2020 there will be program bands with parallel or plenary The JSM EXPO will also be available virtually, sessions from 10:00 a.m. to noon, 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 with familiar companies and new vendors all sup- MORE ONLINE p.m., and 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. porting the meeting and available each day for your Online Program: Bear in mind that details may change as plan- questions. The Career Service will be entirely online bit.ly/30W9Iuz ning evolves, but the present plan is invited and and run concurrently with JSM. It is a launching topic-contributed sessions will be live and recorded. point for employers and applicants to connect. Schedule at Registrants will have access to all recorded sessions Registered employers have access to an online search a Glance: bit. until the end of August, so one benefit of this crisis and all candidate information. Most regularly held ly/30YVVTQ is people will be able to hear more talks and there committee meetings or section business meetings will be no “conflicts of interest” when sessions on will be scheduled outside of JSM. Follow #JSM2020 similar topics are scheduled for the same time band. Chef Paul Prudhomme was once asked by a diet- on Twitter for Speakers in contributed sessions will prerecord er about low-fat replacements for butter. He scoffed updates and their talks using the communications platform the at the idea and said something like, “There is no announcements. ASA used for the Symposium on Data Science and replacement for butter. Do something different!” In Statistics in June and their talks will be posted and that spirit, don’t expect this JSM to simulate the in- available until August 31, as well. person experience. It will be different, and some of it Poster presenters will also upload presentations can be much better. Without hotels and airfare and in advance with the option to include an oral com- with a reduced registration fee, this will be much less ponent walking people through the details. These expensive in terms of both money and time. Without recordings will be available through August 31. travel, it will be much kinder to the environment. For both contributed papers and posters, attend- Looking ahead, I predict nearly all large scientific ees will have the opportunity to ask questions for conferences will offer the option of virtual partici- discussion throughout JSM, and presenters will be pation. Aging academics like to sleep in their own assigned specific times to be available to respond. beds and avoid the exigencies of travel. Statisticians We are also working to craft activities that will from smaller compa- mimic some of the JSM social experience. I don’t nies, agencies, and col- think we can replicate it perfectly. For me, it feels as leges will appreciate though I take 10 steps at JSM, see someone I taught, the affordability. And who taught me, with whom I worked, with whom everyone will be glad I co-authored, or whose wedding I attended and we to recover more per- have a sincerely meaningful and heartfelt conversa- sonal time and have tion that lasts about two minutes. Then, I take 10 a lighter carbon foot- more steps and repeat. It is exhausting and exhilarat- print. If we learn to do ing, but it is probably not the most rewarding kind this well, there will be Hello! of socialization. So, I strongly encourage everyone to many upsides. n start thinking about making personal, prearranged Zoom or Skype meetings with friends to catch up. And I hope the officers of ASA sections who want to hold receptions will make similar arrangements (officers should contact the ASA Meetings Department at [email protected] if they don’t have convenient access or home bandwidth to set that up). The ASA staff plans to hold JSM functions such as the First-Time Attendee Orientation, the Student Mixer, and the Opening Mixer. I don’t think we can do the JSM Dance Party, but since people laugh when I dance, I’m more relieved than regretful.

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This year’s winner of the Gerald J. Hahn Q&P Achievement Award is Martha Gardner, a leading expert in quality methods and tools. Gardner is a knowledgeable coach and teacher who has used her domain expertise in mathematics and statistics to take key leadership positions within GE Global Research. She has worked directly with GE businesses to leverage her deep expertise in Samanthi Konarasinghe in Melbourne, Australia, March 6–7 with Waheed Ahmad applied statistics to solve supply Baig at the International Conference on Research in Life-Sciences and Healthcare chain and manufacturing quality issues. As a chief scientist at W. G. Samanthi Physical Sciences and Interna- GE Global Research, she led Konarasinghe, from the tional Conference on Business, initiatives for Six Sigma, Lean Six Institute of Mathematics and Economics, Social Sciences, and Sigma, statistical process control, Management in Sri Lanka, Humanities for her research find- big data analytics, and the theory introduced three new forecast- ings. She was awarded the IMRF of inventive problem-solving. ing techniques: circular model Best Scientist Award, India and In her role as executive quality (CM), circular indicator (CI), and invited to speak on her findings at leader of process improvement Sama circular model (SCM). several conferences. She was the at GE Aviation, Gardner and The circular model is based on keynote speaker at the Interna- her team have had a significant Newton’s Law of Circular Mo- tional Conference on Science and impact on product quality and tion, Fourier Transformation, and Technology Research, Interna- delivery, focusing on reduction in least square regression. The most tional Conference on Research losses. Her positive and enthusi- important property of the CM is it in Life-Sciences and Healthcare, astic leadership style engages the can be applied for either stationary and International Conference on teams on the manufacturing floor, or nonstationary series. Further, Modern Trends in Mathematics. leading to stronger teams and the model is capable of capturing For more information about more effective and creative solu- both seasonal and cyclical patterns Konarasinghe’s research, see the tions to critical business problems. of a time series. Yet the CM was International Journal of Research & Gardner is driving renewed applicable only for trend-free se- Review article at bit.ly/2URmJ4v, focus on producibility and process ries, so it was improved and named the International Journal of Novel capability and recently estab- the Sama circular model. The Research in Physics Chemistry & lished a technical career path and SCM is superior to decomposition Mathematics article at www.novelty- community for technical leaders techniques and auto regressive in- journals.com › download › file=Sama who are driving quality advance- tegrated moving average (ARIMA) Circular Model, and the Google n ment under her mentorship. / seasonal auto regressive integrated Scholar profile at bit.ly/2BeQaqt. In previous years, the Gerald moving average (SARIMA) in Hahn Award winner gave the modeling wave-like patterns. ASA member Phil Nyakauru Q&P plenary address at the The circular indicator was Fall Technical Conference. developed to measure the risk of Gona wrote an opinion-edito- However, due to the health and returns of share market invest- rial titled “Global Message from financial effects of COVID-19, ments. Development of the CI Scientists on COVID-19,” which the Fall Technical Conference was based on the motion of a was published in The Sunday will not be held this year. particle in a horizontal circle Mail of Zimbabwe. The article For details about the Gerald J. (Newton’s Law) and Dharma was prepared on behalf of mem- Hahn Q&P Achievement Award, wheel philosophy. The Dharma bers and alumni of Global Young visit the Quality and Productivity chakra or “Wheel of Dharma” Academy and delivered specific Section website at bit.ly/3fqSzwM. is a widespread symbol used in recommendations for sharing Indian religions such as Jainism, accurate information about the Contributed by Ana Del Amo, Gerald J. Hahn epidemic and opening two- Q&P Achievement Award Chair n Hinduism, and Buddhism. Konarasinghe won the best way communication between paper award from the Interna- scientists and the public. You can tional Conference on Advances read the published piece at www. in Mathematics, Computers, and sundaymail.co.zw/global-message- from-scientists-on-covid-19. n

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Ronald Snee Recognized as 2020 Entrepreneur of the Year

ongtime ASA member Ronald D. Snee, a managing statisticians, software engineers, and a MORE ONLINE Washington & Jefferson College alumnus variety of engineering specialists to holding cor- For more and founder and president of Snee Associates, porate-level positions in R&D planning and con- information about LLC,L was recognized as Entrepreneur of the Year at tinuous process improvement. While at DuPont, W&J College, visit the college’s annual Entrepreneurial Leadership he also was the originator and contributor to the www.washjeff.edu. Dinner February 20. The award was presented by strategies for formulations development, which have W&J College President John C. Knapp. been used with substantial benefit in chemical, process, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and petroleum industries. In recognition of this contribution, he became the youngest professional ever to receive the American Society for Quality (ASQ) Walter A. Shewhart Medal for the excellence of a technical contribution in the field of quality when he was 44 years old. Snee has held a number of positions of trust in the consulting industry and corporations since his retirement from DuPont. Most notably, he was the vice president for process assurance at Bell Atlantic, where he was responsible for leading the corpora- tion in the implementation of process manage- Washington & Jefferson College President John Knapp ment, applying the concepts of statistical thinking (left) presents Ronald Snee with the Entrepreneur of the Year award. to improve customer service. His group defined Bell Atlantic’s core business processes, established roles and After earning his bachelor’s degree in mathemat- responsibilities for process owners, and created a cor- ics from W&J, Snee completed his master’s degree porate-wide model for business process management. and doctorate at Rutgers University in applied and Prior to Bell Atlantic, Snee served as vice presi- mathematical statistics. In his current work, he dent of consulting at Joiner Associates from 1992– provides guidance to senior executives in their pur- 1996. He headed the firm’s consulting practice suit of improved business performance using Lean with the responsibility of managing the consultant Six Sigma, quality by design, process modeling, force and overseeing client relationships. His clients and other improvement approaches that produce included Bell Canada, Xerox, Reliable Insurance, bottom-line results. His work focuses on the phar- USA TODAY, and GE Capital. He also served as maceutical and biotech industries, with clients that president of the Delaware Quality Consortium that include Merck, Novartis, ImClone, Human Genome administers the Delaware Quality Award and served Sciences, Celgene, and Kraft Foods. He also serves as as judge for the award. an adjunct professor in the pharmaceutical programs Snee has been awarded ASQ’s Grant and at Rutgers University and Temple University. Distinguished Service medals and the ASA’s Deming Prior to his current assignment, Snee used his Lecture, Dixon Consulting Excellence, and Gerry broad experience and expertise as principal at Tunnell Hahn Quality and Productivity awards. He has Consulting and as Six Sigma deployment leader with published seven books and more than 330 papers SBTI. He has played a major leadership role in process in quality, performance improvement, manage- improvement initiatives for 32 organizations. ment, and statistics. His work has been recognized He began his career as a practicing statistician by more than 30 major awards. Snee is an honorary at DuPont in 1968, following two years as an assis- member and fellow of ASQ and a fellow of the ASA tant professor in statistics at Rutgers University. and American Association for the Advancement of During his 24 years at DuPont, Snee progressed Science. He has also been elected as an academician in from being an internal statistical consultant to the International Academy for Quality. n

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Obituary Remembering George Cobb (1947–2020) Allan Rossman and Thomas Moore

George Cobb

An inspiring innovator, George Cobb changed effectively. George’s Dartmouth years foreshad- the face of statistics education. He gave this mod- owed a person who would deftly bridge C.P. est branch of our profession a level of respect it Snow’s “Two Cultures.” had not had before but continues to enjoy. Much The Vietnam War derailed George’s plans for as Bob Dylan felt the heat of his era and gave graduate study in Russian, and his alternative ser- it fuel and oxygen through his ideas and words, vice as a conscientious objector at the Medical George saw teaching statistics as too important College of Virginia kindled his interest in statis- for the status quo. Over his lifetime, George tics. Colleagues there convinced him that study- showed a remarkable ability to sense the need for ing statistics would support his goal of teaching (often radical) change and offer a prophetic and collegiately and his interest in mathematics, while eloquent voice for that change. We cherish this providing marketability in a job search. George self-description George once provided: “Despite earned his PhD at Harvard under Art Dempster, his Quaker upbringing, the sight of an apple cart writing his dissertation on conditional inference, triggers happy fantasies of how to upset it.” and had the privilege of helping Fred Mosteller George passed away on May 6, less than a teach introductory statistics. week shy of his 73rd birthday, having been ill George’s first and only job after Harvard was for many months. He was a North Carolinian as a faculty member at Mount Holyoke College, by birth. His father, Whitfield, was a professor of where he became the Robert L. Rooke Professor statistics at Virginia Tech and his mother, Polly, of Mathematics and Statistics and taught from taught German and Russian. 1974 until retirement in 2009. At Mt. Holyoke, He credits his early and enduring interest in George became beloved and venerated as a col- mathematics to two wonderful pre-collegiate league, teacher, and mentor. teachers. He attended Dartmouth, taking nearly His writing and leadership garnered similar enough mathematics for a major and enjoying high regard throughout the statistical world. In the influence of John Kemeny and Laurie Snell, the online outpouring of grief and gratitude after who were changing the landscape of mathemat- his passing, George’s ability to write about statis- ics education as George would later do in sta- tics was central. Paul Velleman spoke for us all tistics. But George majored in Russian, because in saying, “George changed the way we thought he loved the patterns in Russian poetry. He had about teaching and wrote that in ways that were a life-long love of word play, which he used so new and stunning to those of us who read him.”

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“Stunned” captures how we felt back in 1987 the two disciplines regard the interplay between upon reading George’s first major article in sta- context and abstraction, with implications for tistics education, a book review in JASA titled statistics education. “Introductory Textbooks: A Framework for George upset apple carts through his many Evaluation – A Comparison of 16 Books.” This keynote conference presentations, as well. Bob article constituted a 20-page tour of George’s Hayden reflected that “George had a rare gift mind, as much data analysis as commentary—the 16 books as cases, wisely selected variables, and cool graphics like a two-way table of “number of data sets” by “authenticity index.” Stunning in its originality, eloquence, and insight, imbued throughout with George’s humility, this article exhibited qualities that all in the stat-ed community now associate with George. This article introduced us to George’s aphoris- tic writing. If one took “George Cobb for $400” on Jeopardy, and the answer was “Judge a book by its exercises, and you cannot go far wrong,” none of us would fail to respond, “What was the take- away message from George Cobb’s 1987 JASA review of textbooks?” In 1992, George led a focus group of eminent statistics educators that resulted in the chapter “Teaching Statistics” in the MAA volume Heeding the Call for Change. In a 2015 interview for the Journal of Statistics Education, George described his work on this report as “almost George Cobb in 1995. exclusively editorial,” but added, “I worked hard at that … because I wanted to turn good ideas for entertaining people while making them into something that would be brief enough, and think at the same time. He often told audienc- pithy enough, to be memorable, …” es they were doing it all wrong and needed to It would have been memorable even without change, yet they walked out of his talks laugh- the first sentence, but that first sentence, well, it ing and smiling.” A stellar example is George’s stunned us once again and we knew we were in banquet presentation at the first US Conference for a great read: on Teaching Statistics. George told the audience that by emphasizing procedures based on Shorn of all subtlety and led naked out of the pro- the normal distribution, they were teaching a tective fold of educational research literature, there Ptolemaic curriculum for introductory statis- comes a sheepish little fact: lectures don’t work tics. George argued that “randomization-based nearly as well as many of us would like to think. inference makes a direct connection between data production and the logic of inference that As “Framework” was a call for data analysis deserves to be at the core of every introduc- as respectable intellectual activity, “Teaching tory course.” The inaugural issue of Technology Statistics” added a second key ingredient to mod- Innovations in Statistics Education in 2007 pub- ern statistics education—active learning. lished George’s article on this topic, which has George co-authored two articles on the achieved seminal status and inspired many teach- relationship of statistics and mathematics ers to implement randomization-based inference. with another giant in our profession, David George continued to think and write about Moore, for the American Mathematical current challenges facing our profession into his Monthly. These articles described how differently retirement. He wrote the lead article for a 2015

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special issue of The American Statistician (TAS) in 2003. George was the inaugural recipient of on curricular reform. George’s title took direct the USCOTS Lifetime Achievement Award in aim at another apple cart: “Mere Renovation Is 2005, which the organization has renamed the Too Little Too Late: We Need to Rethink Our George Cobb Award in Statistics Education. Undergraduate Curriculum from the Ground Whether in print, at a public presentation, Up.” George also contributed to, and provided through his curricular projects, in a conference or the opening lines of, the ASA’s influential state- professional gathering, or as a colleague, George ment on p-values that appeared in TAS in 2016. never failed to make you think and want to try As a teacher, George practiced what he things out. His writings are still worth reading preached and preached what he practiced. We because, as with most great writers, you get to recall talks in which he joyfully shared making see into the mind of a genius. Ann Watkins com- homemade slime to teach data transformations or pared George not to a writer but to a composer: launching gummy bears to teach factorial design, “George truly was the Mozart of our profession: and he loved being part of the stat-ed community profoundly original, lyrical, incomparably influ- that shared such ideas at JSM. George could also ential, and delightfully complex.” take as well as give with aphorisms. As a cham- pion for the liberal arts, George was particularly fond of quoting his Mount Holyoke colleague, Don O’Shea, who said, “Liberal arts colleges are where cutting-edge research from universities is brought into the undergraduate curriculum.” Along these lines, George developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo course for undergraduates, using notes destined for textbook status, but regrettably not quite finished on his passing. In 1998, George published an innovative textbook on experimental design. Later, he collaborated on a textbook for a second George, his wife Cheryl Cobb, and daughter course in statistics. He also co-authored intro- Lee Tae Cobb ductory textbooks, including one that features randomization-based inference. It feels odd and slightly inappropriate to For 30 years, George also served as an expert write about George with such an emphasis on witness in legal cases. Most involved work- his professional life because socializing with him place discrimination, but one case concerned a as a friend was such a joy. He loved humor, the hospital nurse accused of murdering patients. outdoors, music, playing the banjo, eating good This case led to an article co-authored with food, children, friends, and—above all—his fam- the opposing expert witness for the collection ily. George’s wife Cheryl is a singer who teaches Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown, a collabo- voice at Mount Holyoke, and his daughter Lee ration with his courtroom “adversary” evincing Tae is a doctoral student in media and commu- George’s Quaker roots. nications at Temple University. George served the ASA in many capacities: George also loved to read, with Dickens a serving on and chairing committees, serving on favorite, so we will end by recalling the first sen- editorial boards, and—from 2003–2006—serv- tence of David Copperfield: “Whether I shall turn ing as a vice president. He was the first liberal out to be the hero of my own life, or whether arts college statistician to serve on the Committee that station will be held by anybody else, these for Applied and Theoretical Statistics for the pages must show.” May we sheepishly demur on National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, answering that question for this modest man, and Medicine. The ASA made him a fellow in but also add that if we are talking heroes, well, 1993 and gave him the Founders Award in 2007. George, you will always be one of ours. The Boston Chapter named George Mosteller Statistician of the Year in 2016, and he earned The Cobb family has established a memorial the Mount Holyoke Faculty Award for Teaching site for George at www.georgewcobb.com.

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Obituary Clifford H. Spiegelman Clifford H. Spiegelman, Regents Professor and many years, he also was the key statistical advi- Distinguished Professor of Statistics at Texas sor to the City of Houston’s crime lab. A&M University and a leader in statistical and Throughout his four-decade career, environmental forensics, passed away May 14, Spiegelman used his vast knowledge of statis- 2020, in College Station at the age of 71. tics and forensic science to help free innocent people, reevaluate history, and develop sharper analytical tools for society. In perhaps the most visible and pioneering example, his expertise was key as a member of a National Research Council committee charged with evaluating the effectiveness of comparative bullet lead analysis, a forensic method most notably used in the investigation of the 1963 assassination of US President John F. Kennedy. He was instrumental in the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s 2005 decision to stop using the widespread technique after he demonstrated it to be fundamentally flawed. He also took part in a related study that determined the same for evidence used to rule out a second shoot- er in the Kennedy assassination—work recognized with the 2008 American Statistical Association’s Statistics in Chemistry Award. “Cliff’s passion was good and irrefutable statistical methodology in the absence of classical experimental design,” said Texas A&M statistician and interim head of Texas A&M Statistics, Daren B.H. Cline. “He was a public face for statistics Clifford H. Spiegelman who demonstrated the relevance of our field to society and the importance of proper techniques “Cliff was a person who voluntarily helped and precise application.” others,” said Texas A&M statistician Samiran A native of Long Island, Spiegelman earned a Sinha. “He was there whenever the department bachelor’s in economics, math, and statistics at needed someone, whether in presenting the the State University of New York at Buffalo in department at the college level, talking with other 1970 and both his master’s in managerial eco- departments, or improving or restructuring cours- nomics and doctorate in statistics and applied es. I communicated with him last week regarding a mathematics at Northwestern University in paper review. He was truly a helpful person.” 1973 and 1976, respectively. Prior to joining Spiegelman was appointed in 2009 as a dis- Texas A&M, he spent nine years in the National tinguished professor of statistics, Texas A&M’s Bureau of Standards Statistical Engineering highest honorific rank for faculty. He was des- Division (the present-day National Institute ignated a Regents Professor for 2018–2019 in of Standards and Technology) in Gaithersburg recognition of his exemplary contributions to (1978–1987), following one year as an assistant the Texas A&M University System and people professor of statistics at Florida State University of Texas. A senior research scientist with the (1976–1977). He also held visiting faculty Texas A&M Transportation Institute, he had appointments at Northwestern (1982–1983), served since 2017 as the inaugural official stat- The Johns Hopkins University (1986–1987), istician of the Texas Holocaust and Genocide and Lamar University (1993–1996). Commission as well as the statistical adviser to In addition to higher education, Spiegelman the Texas Forensic Science Commission. For served as an adjunct investigator in the Biostatistics

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Branch of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) International Statistical Institute (1993). A Division of Cancer Epidemiology Genetics two-time recipient of the ASA Statistics in (2005–2008) and as a consultant for the NCI Chemistry Award for best paper, he also received Proteomics Program (2005–2009). For the past the 2007 Jerome Sacks Award for Outstanding six years, he spent his summers in Washington, Cross-Disciplinary Research recognizing inno- DC, working with collaborators at the National vation in statistical science and the San Antonio Agricultural Statistics Service (2014–2019). Chapter of the ASA’s 2016 Don Owen Award Spiegelman was a founder of the field of che- for excellence in research, contributions to mometrics, the science of using data to extract editorial activities, and service to the statisti- information from chemical systems by data- cal community. Most recently, he was honored driven means to investigate and address prob- with the Texas A&M chapter of Sigma Xi’s 2019 lems in chemistry, biochemistry, and chemical Outstanding Science Communicator Award. engineering. In 2017, the international journal he co-founded, Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, celebrated his 30-plus years One of Spiegelman’s lifelong of service to both the publication and the disci- pline he helped create with a virtual special issue in his honor. An active researcher and scholar, passions was using statistics Spiegelman authored more than 200 refereed publications that have appeared in the Annals of to achieve justice for Statistics and at least 20 other statistics journals. He also contributed to five books and dozens of everyday citizens. conference proceedings, reviews, and editorials. One of Spiegelman’s lifelong passions was using statistics to achieve justice for everyday citizens. For many years, he worked with judges “Cliff was a great colleague and a truly out- and attorneys to broaden their understanding standing statistician,” said Texas A&M statis- of statistics and the critical effect it often has on tician Jeffrey D. Hart. “I don’t think I’ve ever case outcomes and broader issues at hand. At known anyone as dedicated to his/her profes- the time of his death, he was working with col- sion than was Cliff. He will be sorely missed.” leagues and US legislators to introduce potential To read more about Spiegelman’s life, visit bipartisan legislation that would enter existing the Texas A&M news website at bit.ly/2AKA7k5. forensic evidence collected at crime scenes dur- A tribute page, “Remembering Dr. Clifford ing the civil rights era into forensic databases. Spiegelman,” has also been set up in his honor He strongly believed such a watershed move at www.innocenceproject.org/remembering-cliff- would help pave the way for countless decades- spiegelman. long cold cases potentially to be solved. Spiegelman was a fellow of the American Statistical Association (1992), Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1990), and American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014), as well as an elected member of the

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Obituary John Wesley Wilkinson

Longtime ASA member John W. Wilkinson, 1962, started teaching dancing in 1967, and 91, of Acton, Massachusetts—formerly of started a national carousel dance club in 1976. Schenectady, New York—passed away of natural They served on the Universal Round Dance causes May 14, 2020. John was a devoted hus- Council board from 1995–2000 and 2008– band, recently preceded in death by his wife, Jean. 2009, chaired several dance conventions, were John grew up in Havelock, Ontario. He involved with Roundarama and ROUNDALAB, remembered spending high-school summers and choreographed several dances. in the Air Cadets in Trenton, Ontario. After John was also involved in the community, high school, John earned a BA from Queen’s serving on the board of trustees for Girls Inc. University in 1950. He met Jean in September Foundation Trust of Schenectady; volunteer- of 1949 and decided to stay at Queens to earn ing with the Proctors Theatre Guild, Planned his MA (1952). During his college years, he Parenthood, and the Schenectady/Nijkerk spent summers in the Canadian Navy ROTC Council; and participating as a member of the and was active in the Canadian Naval Reserve Unitarian Universalist Society of Schenectady from 1946–1952. John married Jean in 1953 for more than 55 years. He was also a strong in North Bay, Ontario. After their honeymoon, supporter of Jean’s work with Hospice. In 2009, they moved to North Carolina, where John Planned Parenthood Mohawk Hudson pre- earned his PhD (1956) from The University of sented John and Jean with the Giraffe Award North Carolina Department of Statistics and for “sticking their necks out for reproductive Operations Research (analysis of paired com- rights.” Additionally, John and Jean were hon- parison designs with incomplete repetitions). ored in 2010 with the YWCA’s Katherine S. John returned to Kingston, Ontario, and Rozendaal Award for the positive impact their taught in the math department at Queen’s volunteer leadership and activities had on the University (1956–1958). He and Jean moved Schenectady community. to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, in 1958, where John’s other interests included travel, square he worked for Westinghouse. In 1965, John dancing, attending cultural performances, vis- accepted a teaching position at Rensselaer iting museums, sailing, skating/hockey, skiing, Polytechnic Institute (RPI), where he spent the reading, and playing bridge and cribbage. John rest of his career until retiring in 1994. was a lifelong student and enjoyed classes at the In 1971, John was honored as an Union College Academy for Lifelong Learning. Outstanding Educator of America for contribu- John and Jean moved to Acton in November tions to the advancement of higher education of 2018 to be closer to their granddaughters. and community service. John served as editor To honor John’s life, a donation may be of Technometrics from 1978–1980. A member made to Girls Inc. of the Greater Capital Region of the ASA for more than 50 years, John was (https://girlsinccapitalregion.org) or Proctors honored as a fellow in 1972. Theatre (bit.ly/2YFAjct) in lieu of flowers. Outside of work, John and Jean were involved with round dancing. They started dancing in

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Statistical Consulting Section Responds to COVID-19

impact of various government interventions to slow the he COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed spread of the virus and predictions of when peak active life in the United States. As of May 2020, more than infections will occur. 100,000 Americans had lost their lives and the unem- To better understand the genetic component of the Tployment rate was near 25 percent. disease, Jeet Mozumdar, statistical geneticist and bioin- The response to the crisis has taken shape in several formatician, is performing analyses on the DNA of SARS- initiatives—many led by statisticians—including epide- CoV-2. miological studies to understand immunity and infectivity, models to predict when there will be a next wave, clinical trials to identify safe and effective treatments and Operating Characteristics of Diagnostic Tests for Infection and Immunity vaccines, and studies of the impact of various policies— including social distancing policies. Other researchers are focused on understanding the oper- The ASA established the COVID-19 Data, Statistics, ating characteristics of diagnostic tests for COVID-19 Research, and Discussion Community to facilitate collab- and providing insight into their interpretation. Naomi orative science, and more than 600 recently attended an Brownstein, assistant member at Moffitt Cancer Center, ASA and National Institute for Statistical Sciences infor- is working with her colleague Ann Chen on an analysis of mational webinar (bit.ly/3hE1SvA) that focused on the positive and negative predictive value (i.e., false negative and role of modeling this disease. As highlighted in the May positive rates) of antibodies tests under an Emergency Use issue of Amstat News, statisticians across the spectrum of Authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration. the ASA community are diligently working to provide the The working title of their paper is “Are Antibodies Tests necessary expertise during this uncertain time. Accurate? Understanding Predictive Values and Uncertainty Applied and practicing statisticians in the ASA Statistical of Serology Tests for the Novel Coronavirus.” Consulting Section are engaged and playing key roles Isabel Allen, professor of epidemiology and biosta- in COVID-19 research. Here, we highlight members of tistics at the University of California at San Francisco the section who are responding to COVID-19. We also (UCSF), worked with colleagues at the University of laud those we did not discover, as well as the many others Pennsylvania and UCSF on a meta-analysis of the sensitiv- throughout the ASA doing similar work. ity of CT scans vs. the RT_PCR tests for COVID-19. The paper found lots of biased studies and few with data on both Epidemiological Studies of Immunity and Infectivity tests. Sensitivity for both tests was close to 70 percent. The paper is currently in press in Investigative Radiology. A number of epidemiological studies of immunity and infectivity are underway. In addition to The Johns Impact of Mitigation Strategies Hopkins dashboard by Wang, et al. highlighted in the June issue, Jason Wilson, associate professor of statistics Isabel Allen additionally conducted a survey of faculty at Biola University, has highlighted sex as a risk factor in and administrators in higher education (US and Canada) his recently posted paper, “Systematic Review and Meta- on transition plans and teaching online with Bay View Analysis of Sex-Specific COVID-19 Clinical Outcomes.” Analytics and sponsored by the Gates Foundation and The paper, posted on medrxiv (www.medrxiv.org/content/ others. The study found that faculty are concerned about 10.1101/2020.05.11.20098673v1) and accepted for pub- their students and administrators are concerned about lication in Frontiers of Medicine, shows the incidence of financial implications. Also, both groups provided inter- COVID-19 in males is higher than females, particularly esting findings on remote education versus online educa- as symptoms grow worse. tion. Lack of training materials for moving courses online Edward Boone, professor of statistics at Virginia was identified as the biggest issue. A follow-up survey will Commonwealth University (VCU), is working with Ryad be conducted in late summer to assess institutions’ plans Ghanam, professor of mathematics at VCU Qatar, and for the fall semester and what types of support faculty are Abdel-Salam Gomaa Abdel-Salam, associate professor getting for moving courses online. Findings have been of statistics at Qatar University, to build a Susceptibles, featured in a webinar with Inside Higher Ed (1,500 par- Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Deaths (SIERD) ticipants) and in The New York Times (nyti.ms/3edEin6). model for predicting the next wave of COVID-19 in Qatar. The SIERD model allows for quantifying the

40 amstat news july 2020 section • chapter • committee news

Clinical Trials and Clinical Studies the same patient population to address questions about a Many of our members are engaged in identifying effec- particular drug. tive treatments for COVID-19 and a vaccine for the Robert Podolsky, director of informatics and biosta- novel coronavirus. Frank Harrell and Chris Lindsell, tistics at Beaumont Health, has helped design the initial professors of biostatistics at Vanderbilt University, led sampling strategy for the Beaumont employee serol- the novel design of “Outcomes Related to COVID-19 ogy study (https://wapo.st/2BcgelW). This study focuses Treated with Hydroxychloroquine Among In-Patients on determining antibody responses to COVID infec- with Symptomatic Disease” (ORCHID). ORCHID is a tion, estimating the prevalence of antibodies among Bayesian sequential parallel-group randomized clinical all Beaumont Health employees, the ability to identify trial for COVID-19 that allows for continuous learning patients who never experienced symptoms, and the sus- from data through the computation of probabilities that tainability of antibody production. He has also designed trigger go/no-go decisions about how to proceed with the a clinical trial, the SINK study, to evaluate the efficacy of trial. This work—done closely with David Schoenfeld, using Naltrexone and Ketamine as immunomodulatory professor of biostatistics at Harvard University—involves agents in trying to control the inflammatory response to developing a Bayesian sequential design and simulating its the COVID virus. Bayesian operating characteristics in addition to develop- In addition to clinical trials, members have designed ing Bayesian ordinal regression models so the ordinal out- studies to evaluate the effectiveness of various quality come can be covariate-adjusted and the model extended improvement initiatives in the clinical setting. Joseph to serially collected outcomes. Harrell and Lindsell have Rigdon, assistant professor of biostatistics and data sci- provided a detailed blueprint for our community, along ence at Wake Forest School of Medicine, is working with with software, so others can borrow principles in design- colleagues in infectious diseases to study the impact of ing similar studies. wearing a mask on the amount of virus present in the air Manisha Desai, professor of medicine and biomedical and on surfaces in hospital rooms using data from hospi- data science at Stanford University and chair of the ASA tal patients with COVID-19. This study will guide best Statistical Consulting Section, has worked with her team mask practices for providers during this and future similar at the Stanford University Quantitative Sciences Unit to pandemics. Additional work with colleagues in pediatric create a shared infrastructure for facilitating randomized nephrology and epidemiology focuses on guidance for clinical trials (RCTs). This includes an international data the design and analysis of observational studies of rates and safety monitoring board registry of experts willing of COVID-19 and related complications in patients with to serve on COVID trials, searchable by expertise and hypertension who take ACE inhibitors. hosted on the Society of Clinical Trials (SCT) COVID-19 Through collaborative efforts relying in part on sta- Research Resources Hub (www.sctweb.org/covid.cfm). tistical practice, we have learned much in the past six Also hosted on the SCT hub is the COVID-19 months about COVID-19. At least one treatment has Endpoint Registry (bit.ly/3fAuQKD), which lists all emerged as promising for the severe patient, we are approved endpoints in the US. Notably, coming up with observing a number of disparities among subgroups of the the right COVID-19 endpoint has been a huge challenge, population—with LatinX and African American popula- as there are no validated endpoints. In this registry, one tions more vulnerable than other groups—and mitigation can search for endpoints for a particular patient popula- strategies such as shelter-in-place are effective in reducing tion or study phase and one can graphically view the case burden (doi:10.1001/jama.2020.8598). diversity of endpoints and changes in endpoint choices Importantly, there is much more we need to learn. We over time. The most important component of the shared need to better understand transmission, immunity, and infrastructure is an adaptive master trial, which allows the impact of various reopening strategies. We statisticians evaluation of multiple agents to be studied simultane- have trained for moments like this one and are being ously. Such a trial allows arriving at answers about the called to action. The work highlighted here shows how safety and efficacy of drugs faster and with fewer resources many of us have pivoted from our usual work to address than a traditional fixed trial design. Efficiency is gained this crisis. It also provides hope that, with so much tal- as one does not need to reinvent the wheel each time a ent and energy devoted to the crisis, we will emerge with trial is being launched, and consolidating into one trial solutions for this and future pandemics. n means less competition among individual trials that need

july 2020 amstat news 41 section • chapter • committee news

Biopharmaceutical Section Offers Summary of Dos and Don’ts for Submitting Manuscripts Ilya Lipkovich, Eli Lilly and Company, and Alex Dmitrienko, Mediana Inc.

ecently, the Biopharmaceutical Section con- paper should present novel approach(es), but ducted a survey of the editors and associate it also should avoid inventing new terminol- editors of several applied statistics journals ogy and introducing new notation when Rwith a biopharmaceutical orientation (Statistics in established ones exist. As in almost any area Medicine, Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, of human endeavor, a good strategy is to stick Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, and to existing standards unless you can propose Pharmaceutical Statistics). better ones. The survey was designed to be open-ended and • DON’T include excessively long litera- asked the editors to list—based on their experienc- ture review, unless you are writing a review es—three don’ts commonly seen in submitted man- paper. Only cover literature relevant for your uscripts and three dos. The editors were encouraged research. to avoid listing well-understood don’ts such as pla- giarism and focus on less obvious dos that would be • DON’T try to solve artificial or nonexisting appreciated by statisticians preparing manuscripts. problems. Always ask yourself, “Is the method We received 27 responses, each consisting of proposed applicable to a real-life problem?” multiple dos and don’ts. Most respondents provided Artificiality comes with many faces. For three of each kind, though some provided mostly example, do not do research just to provide a Bayesian counterpart to a problem where don’ts or dos. Because our sample size fell short of an existing (frequentist) solution works well. n=30, we refrain from any formal statistical inference. Often authors “invent” methods involving Although the immediate motivation for conduct- multiple steps that somewhat arbitrarily coming this survey was the desire to understand why so bine existing procedures with little insight many of our own manuscripts have been rejected by into why they should work better than avail- these journals, we think the responses will be use- able methods. ful to all authors of statistical manuscripts, whether novice or seasoned. • DON’T try to solve a special case when a For convenience, we divided the areas covered more general problem has been solved already. by the respondents into six broad categories, pre- • DON’T try to publish two very similar papers sented below with detailed suggestions. As both with a different order of authors. authors serve (or have served) as associate editors for Statistics in Medicine, we felt free to add our own • DON’T write in the introduction that suggestions here and there. “unfortunately no approaches exist to handle this problem”; it is, in fact, quite fortunate for Context of Research and Motivation your research. These include the need to provide proper motivation for research with such critical elements as alignment Structure and Style of Presentation with existing literature, novelty, and applicability. The key attributes are the length, logical structure, efficient use of tables and figures, use of appendices, • DO include a convincing and easy-to-follow and supplemental materials. real-world example illustrating the problem and motivating your research. • DON’T write long manuscripts (stressed by • DO conduct a thorough and unbiased lit- one-quarter of responders). erature review ensuring good alignment with • DO make sure the structure of the paper is existing research. This not only means the well thought out. As our respondents did not

42 amstat news july 2020 section • chapter • committee news

provide examples of poor structure, we would better than all others, and it is important to like to make a couple specific suggestions: identify the cases in which alternative methods are superior to your method. • Although clinical journal standards require you to not disclose results • DON’T use simulations when you can make before the “results” section, keeping a point using an analytical argument. the reader in suspense, this pedantic • DON’T present results with nine decimal rule is not followed by many influen- places, especially if you have run only 100 tial statisticians of our time who often simulations per scenario. present the summary of key findings in the introduction. Balancing Theory with Applications • Do not write a history of your research, tracking how the ideas • DON’T overload the paper submitted to an applied statistics journal with math- evolved in the course of writing your ematical equations and statistical jargon. article. Present the final view. The main results should be explained using • DO present information efficiently. Whenever language understandable by an intelligent possible, graphical summaries are preferred nonmathematically-oriented reader. over tabular summaries (in addition, tables • DO provide intuition behind mathematical can be moved to the appendix). results. • DON’T have an excessive number of tables • DO provide a real-life example (see also and figures in the main text. Context of Research and Motivation). • DO provide detailed annotations for each figure that allow the reader to understand the graph (and the context), even without reading Properly Framing Your Contribution the description in the text. This is also helpful • DON’T “oversell” and exaggerate the impor- for automatic generation of article summaries, tance and novelty of your paper. as machine learning algorithms “like” to have figures explained by surrounding text. • DON’T write your paper like a promotional dossier explaining how everyone is doing • DO present proofs and other highly technical things wrong and “here we come and solve all details in appendixes. the world’s problems.” • DO make sure the paper is proofread by a • DO provide a critical account of your native English speaker. research, stating gaps and limitations. Stating limitations of the proposed method is important; however, admitting your sins does not Simulation Design automatically mean forgiveness. • DO make sure simulations cover relevant cases. • DO explain in nontechnical language why Reproducibility you chose particular scenarios. • DO describe methods in sufficient detail that • DON’T choose only the scenarios that favor can be reproduced. your method. Show how your method per- • DO make the code and data sets available. forms when the assumptions are not met. • DON’T choose as a comparator for your We would like to conclude this article with a DO method a “strawman” (a pseudo-standard that (or rather a BE) suggested by one of our responders: is easy to beat). Compare your method to a “Be Brilliant!” n broad class of alternative approaches. In most settings, there is no method that is uniformly

july 2020 amstat news 43 section • chapter • committee news

sectionnews Survey Research Methods year), and one poster session. panelists providing commentary The Joint Statistical Meetings The virtual program is avail- about a topic). An invited ses- (JSM)—taking place August able at ww2.amstat.org/meetings/ sion proposal includes a session 2–6—will be a virtual confer- jsm/2020/onlineprogram. title, general description of the ence this year, and the Survey Registration, featuring session, list of participants, and Research Methods Section reduced rates, will remain tentative talk titles. (SRMS) has many sessions for open through the conference. If you are interested in orga- you to attend from your home Register today! nizing an invited session, select a (or office). session topic and solicit potential Starting at 10 a.m. EDT, the Time to Think About JSM 2021 speakers. Once you have a suf- technical program will extend Invited Sessions ficient number of committed over four days (there are a few While JSM 2020 hasn’t hap- speakers, you can submit your events on Sunday, as well), pened yet, it is not too early to proposal online from mid-July to including Thursday afternoon. organize your potential JSM early September. n SRMS has at least one invited 2021 invited session; proposals session every day at 10 a.m. (10 are due early in September. total), 14 topic-contributed ses- Invited sessions include invit- sions, nine contributed sessions, ed papers (2–6 presenters and/ four roundtables (free this or discussants) and panels (3–6

44 amstat news july 2020 2021CONFERENCE ON STATISTICAL PRACTICE NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE FEBRUARY 18–20, 2021

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july 2020 amstat news 45 professional opportunities

Professional Opportunity listings may not exceed 65 words, plus equal opportunity Florida information. The deadline for their receipt is the 20th of the month two months prior n The Health Informatics Institute at to when the ad is to be published (e.g., May 20 for the July issue). Ads will be pub- the University of South Florida invites lished in the next available issue following receipt. applications for an open-rank research Listings are shown alphabetically by state, followed by international listings. Vacancy faculty position in Biostatistics. The listings may include the institutional name and address or be identified by number, Institute is NIH-funded as a statistics as desired. and data coordinating center for several large clinical research networks (www. Professional Opportunities vacancies also will be published on the ASA’s website hii.usf.edu). Preferred areas of inter- (www.amstat.org). Vacancy listings will appear on the website for the entire calendar est include longitudinal data analysis, month. Ads may not be placed for publication in the magazine only; all ads will be clinical trials, and big data analytics. published both electronically and in print. University benefits package, EOE. These listings and additional information about the 65-word ads can be found at Apply to position 22377 or 24491 at ww2.amstat.org/ads. [email protected]. EOE. Employers are expected to acknowledge all responses resulting from publication of their ads. Personnel advertising is accepted with the understanding that the adver- tiser does not discriminate among applicants on the basis of race, sex, religion, age, color, national origin, handicap, or sexual orientation. Also, look for job ads on the ASA website at https://jobs.amstat.org/jobseekers.

46 amstat news july 2020 Texas n Two full-time, 12-month postdoc- toral fellow positions at the Statistics Department at Rice University or MD Anderson Cancer Center. Requirements: PhD degree in Statistics, Biostatistics, Applied Mathematics, Computer Science or related field; extensive experience with R and Python; modeling, multivariate data, statistical learning and working with big data. Applications accepted until the positions are filled - https://jobs.rice. edu/postings/23335. Rice University is an Equal Opportunity Employer with commitment to diversity at all levels and considers for employment qualified applicants without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national or ethnic origin, genetic information, disability, or protected veteran status. n

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