IMS Bulletin 38(8)
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Two Principles of Evidence and Their Implications for the Philosophy of Scientific Method
TWO PRINCIPLES OF EVIDENCE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD by Gregory Stephen Gandenberger BA, Philosophy, Washington University in St. Louis, 2009 MA, Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, 2014 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Kenneth P. Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2015 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH KENNETH P. DIETRICH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Gregory Stephen Gandenberger It was defended on April 14, 2015 and approved by Edouard Machery, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences Satish Iyengar, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences John Norton, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences Teddy Seidenfeld, Carnegie Mellon University, Dietrich College of Humanities & Social Sciences James Woodward, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences Dissertation Director: Edouard Machery, Pittsburgh, Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences ii Copyright © by Gregory Stephen Gandenberger 2015 iii TWO PRINCIPLES OF EVIDENCE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD Gregory Stephen Gandenberger, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2015 The notion of evidence is of great importance, but there are substantial disagreements about how it should be understood. One major locus of disagreement is the Likelihood Principle, which says roughly that an observation supports a hypothesis to the extent that the hy- pothesis predicts it. The Likelihood Principle is supported by axiomatic arguments, but the frequentist methods that are most commonly used in science violate it. This dissertation advances debates about the Likelihood Principle, its near-corollary the Law of Likelihood, and related questions about statistical practice. -
Agenda and Minutes of the UK Statistics Authority Meeting on 6
UK STATISTICS AUTHORITY Minutes Thursday, 6 June 2013 Boardroom, Titchfield Present UK Statistics Authority Sir Andrew Dilnot (Chair) Professor David Rhind Professor Sir Adrian Smith Mr Richard Alldritt Mr Partha Dasgupta Ms Carolyn Fairbairn Dame Moira Gibb Professor David Hand Dr David Levy Ms Jil Matheson Mr Glen Watson Secretariat Mr Robert Bumpstead Mr Joe Cuddeford Apologies Dr Colette Bowe Other attendees Mr Peter Benton, Mr Alistair Calder and Mr Ian Cope (for item 7) Minutes 1. Apologies 1.1 Apologies were received from Dr Bowe. 2. Declarations of interest 2.1 There were no declarations of interest. 3. Minutes, matters arising from the previous meetings 3.1 The minutes of the previous meeting held on 9 May 2013 were agreed as a true and fair account. 3.2 It was confirmed that a paper from ONS about migration statistics would be considered at the July Authority Board meeting. 4. Authority Chair’s Report 4.1 The Chair had recently attended a meeting of the Cabinet’s Ministerial Committee on Home Affairs to discuss the future provision of population statistics for England and Wales. 4.2 The Chair would be meeting with the Work and Pensions Select Committee on 10 June to discuss official statistics in the Department for Work and Pensions. 4.3 The Chair had written to the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Iain Duncan Smith MP, regarding statistics about the benefit cap, and the Chairman of the Conservative Party, Grant Shapps MP, regarding statistics about the Employment and Support Allowance. 5. Reports from Authority Committee Chairs Assessment Committee 5.1 Professor Rhind reported on the meeting of the Assessment Committee held on 16 May. -
Statistics Making an Impact
John Pullinger J. R. Statist. Soc. A (2013) 176, Part 4, pp. 819–839 Statistics making an impact John Pullinger House of Commons Library, London, UK [The address of the President, delivered to The Royal Statistical Society on Wednesday, June 26th, 2013] Summary. Statistics provides a special kind of understanding that enables well-informed deci- sions. As citizens and consumers we are faced with an array of choices. Statistics can help us to choose well. Our statistical brains need to be nurtured: we can all learn and practise some simple rules of statistical thinking. To understand how statistics can play a bigger part in our lives today we can draw inspiration from the founders of the Royal Statistical Society. Although in today’s world the information landscape is confused, there is an opportunity for statistics that is there to be seized.This calls for us to celebrate the discipline of statistics, to show confidence in our profession, to use statistics in the public interest and to champion statistical education. The Royal Statistical Society has a vital role to play. Keywords: Chartered Statistician; Citizenship; Economic growth; Evidence; ‘getstats’; Justice; Open data; Public good; The state; Wise choices 1. Introduction Dictionaries trace the source of the word statistics from the Latin ‘status’, the state, to the Italian ‘statista’, one skilled in statecraft, and on to the German ‘Statistik’, the science dealing with data about the condition of a state or community. The Oxford English Dictionary brings ‘statistics’ into English in 1787. Florence Nightingale held that ‘the thoughts and purpose of the Deity are only to be discovered by the statistical study of natural phenomena:::the application of the results of such study [is] the religious duty of man’ (Pearson, 1924). -
IMS Bulletin 33(5)
Volume 33 Issue 5 IMS Bulletin September/October 2004 Barcelona: Annual Meeting reports CONTENTS 2-3 Members’ News; Bulletin News; Contacting the IMS 4-7 Annual Meeting Report 8 Obituary: Leopold Schmetterer; Tweedie Travel Award 9 More News; Meeting report 10 Letter to the Editor 11 AoS News 13 Profi le: Julian Besag 15 Meet the Members 16 IMS Fellows 18 IMS Meetings 24 Other Meetings and Announcements 28 Employment Opportunities 45 International Calendar of Statistical Events 47 Information for Advertisers JOB VACANCIES IN THIS ISSUE! The 67th IMS Annual Meeting was held in Barcelona, Spain, at the end of July. Inside this issue there are reports and photos from that meeting, together with news articles, meeting announcements, and a stack of employment advertise- ments. Read on… IMS 2 . IMS Bulletin Volume 33 . Issue 5 Bulletin Volume 33, Issue 5 September/October 2004 ISSN 1544-1881 Member News In April 2004, Jeff Steif at Chalmers University of Stephen E. Technology in Sweden has been awarded Contact Fienberg, the the Goran Gustafsson Prize in mathematics Information Maurice Falk for his work in “probability theory and University Professor ergodic theory and their applications” by Bulletin Editor Bernard Silverman of Statistics at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Assistant Editor Tati Howell Carnegie Mellon The award, given out every year in each University in of mathematics, To contact the IMS Bulletin: Pittsburgh, was named the Thorsten physics, chemistry, Send by email: [email protected] Sellin Fellow of the American Academy of molecular biology or mail to: Political and Social Science. The academy and medicine to a IMS Bulletin designates a small number of fellows each Swedish university 20 Shadwell Uley, Dursley year to recognize and honor individual scientist, consists of GL11 5BW social scientists for their scholarship, efforts a personal prize and UK and activities to promote the progress of a substantial grant. -
Trustees' Report and Financial Statements
Trustees’ Report and Financial Statements For the year ended 31 March 2010 02 Trustees’ Report and Financial Statements Trustees’ Report and Financial Statements 03 Trustees’ Report and Financial Statements Auditors Registered charity No 207043 Other members of the Council Contents PKF (UK) LLP Professor David Barford b Trustees Chartered Accountants and Registered Auditors Professor David Baulcombe a Trustees’ Report 03 The Trustees of the Society are the Members Farringdon Place Sir Michael Berry Independent Auditors’ Report of its Council duly elected by its Fellows. 20 Farringdon Road Professor Richard Catlow b to the Council of the Royal Society 12 London EC1M 3AP Ten of the 21 members of Council retire each Dame Kay Davies DBE a Audit Committee Report to the year in line with its Royal Charter. Dame Ann Dowling DBE Solicitors Council of the Royal Society on Professor Jeffery Errington a Needham & James LLP President the Financial Statements 13 Professor Alastair Fitter Needham & James House Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt Dr Matthew Freeman b Consolidated Statement of Bridgeway Treasurer and Vice-President Sir Richard Friend Financial Activities 14 Stratford upon Avon Warwickshire Sir Peter Williams CBE Professor Brian Greenwood CBE b CV37 6YY b Consolidated Balance Sheet 16 Physical Secretary and Vice-President Professor Andrew Hopper CBE Bankers Dame Louise Johnson DBE b Consolidated Cash Flow Statement 17 Sir Martin Taylor a Barclays Bank plc a Professor John Pethica b Sir John Kingman Accounting Policies 18 Level 28 Dr Tim Palmer a -
Carver Award: Lynne Billard We Are Pleased to Announce That the IMS Carver Medal Committee Has Selected Lynne CONTENTS Billard to Receive the 2020 Carver Award
Volume 49 • Issue 4 IMS Bulletin June/July 2020 Carver Award: Lynne Billard We are pleased to announce that the IMS Carver Medal Committee has selected Lynne CONTENTS Billard to receive the 2020 Carver Award. Lynne was chosen for her outstanding service 1 Carver Award: Lynne Billard to IMS on a number of key committees, including publications, nominations, and fellows; for her extraordinary leadership as Program Secretary (1987–90), culminating 2 Members’ news: Gérard Ben Arous, Yoav Benjamini, Ofer in the forging of a partnership with the Bernoulli Society that includes co-hosting the Zeitouni, Sallie Ann Keller, biannual World Statistical Congress; and for her advocacy of the inclusion of women Dennis Lin, Tom Liggett, and young researchers on the scientific programs of IMS-sponsored meetings.” Kavita Ramanan, Ruth Williams, Lynne Billard is University Professor in the Department of Statistics at the Thomas Lee, Kathryn Roeder, University of Georgia, Athens, USA. Jiming Jiang, Adrian Smith Lynne Billard was born in 3 Nominate for International Toowoomba, Australia. She earned both Prize in Statistics her BSc (1966) and PhD (1969) from the 4 Recent papers: AIHP, University of New South Wales, Australia. Observational Studies She is probably best known for her ground-breaking research in the areas of 5 News from Statistical Science HIV/AIDS and Symbolic Data Analysis. 6 Radu’s Rides: A Lesson in Her research interests include epidemic Humility theory, stochastic processes, sequential 7 Who’s working on COVID-19? analysis, time series analysis and symbolic 9 Nominate an IMS Special data. She has written extensively in all Lecturer for 2022/2023 these areas, publishing over 250 papers in Lynne Billard leading international journals, plus eight 10 Obituaries: Richard (Dick) Dudley, S.S. -
Revised 24.1.05 Gini's Multiple Regressions by Edna Schechtman and Shlomo Yitzhaki Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Shev
Revised 24.1.05 Gini's Multiple Regressions By Edna Schechtman and Shlomo Yitzhaki Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel and Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel Abstract Two regression methods can be interpreted as based on Gini's mean difference (GMD). One relies on a weighted average of slopes defined between adjacent observations and the other is based on minimization of the GMD of the errors. The properties of the former approach are investigated in a multiple regression framework. These estimators have representations that resemble the OLS estimators, and they are robust, both with respect to extreme observations and with respect to monotonic transformations. The asymptotic behavior of the estimators is derived. The combination of the two methods provides a tool for assessing linearity that can be applied to each independent variable individually as well as to several independent variables simultaneously. The method is illustrated using consumption data from Israel. It is shown that the linearity of the Engel curve, and therefore the 'linear expenditures system' is rejected. Key Words: Gini's Mean Difference, Average Derivative, Linearity. Mailing Address: Shlomo Yitzhaki Dept. of Economics The Hebrew University Jerusalem, 91905, Israel. E-Mail: [email protected] Gini's Multiple Regressions 1. Introduction The aims of this paper are to develop and illustrate the properties of multiple regressions based on Gini's mean difference (hereafter, GMD). The simple regression case was investigated in Olkin and Yitzhaki (1992). There are two versions of these regressions: (a) A semi-parametric approach, which is based on estimating a regression coefficient that is a weighted average of slopes defined between adjacent observations (or all pairs of observations) of the regression curve. -
The Royal Statistical Society Getstats Campaign Ten Years to Statistical Literacy? Neville Davies Royal Statistical Society Cent
The Royal Statistical Society getstats Campaign Ten Years to Statistical Literacy? Neville Davies Royal Statistical Society Centre for Statistical Education University of Plymouth, UK www.rsscse.org.uk www.censusatschool.org.uk [email protected] twitter.com/CensusAtSchool RSS Centre for Statistical Education • What do we do? • Who are we? • How do we do it? • Where are we? What we do: promote improvement in statistical education For people of all ages – in primary and secondary schools, colleges, higher education and the workplace Cradle to grave statistical education! Dominic Mark John Neville Martignetti Treagust Marriott Paul Hewson Davies Kate Richards Lauren Adams Royal Statistical Society Centre for Statistical Education – who we are HowWhat do we we do: do it? Promote improvement in statistical education For people of all ages – in primary and secondary schools, colleges, higher education and theFunders workplace for the RSSCSE Cradle to grave statistical education! MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE How do we do it? Funders for the RSSCSE MTB support for RSSCSE Where are we? Plymouth Plymouth - on the border between Devon and Cornwall University of Plymouth University of Plymouth Local attractions for visitors to RSSCSE - Plymouth harbour area The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) 10-year -
Major Greenwood and Clinical Trials
From the James Lind Library Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine; 2017, Vol. 110(11) 452–457 DOI: 10.1177/0141076817736028 Major Greenwood and clinical trials Vern Farewell1 and Tony Johnson2 1MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK 2MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Aviation House, London WC2B 6NH, UK Corresponding author: Vern Farewell. Email: [email protected] Introduction References to Greenwood’s work in clinical trials Major Greenwood (1880–1949) was the foremost medical statistician in the UK during the first Greenwood was a renowned epidemiologist who is not half of the 20th century.1 The son of a general usually associated with randomised clinical trials. At medical practitioner, he obtained a medical degree the time of his retirement, randomised clinical trials from the London Hospital in 1904 and then stu- were still under development and Peter Armitage has died statistics under Karl Pearson at University no recollection of Greenwood commenting on trials College London. Instead of general practice, he when Greenwood visited the London School of opted to pursue a career in medical research, first Hygiene and Tropical Medicine during his retirement under the physiologist Leonard Hill at the London (personal communication). Indeed, randomised clin- Hospital, where, in 1908, he set up the first depart- ical trials were a major component of the work of ment of medical statistics and gave the first lecture Austin Bradford Hill,5 who began his employment in course in the subject in 1909. He established the Greenwood’s department in 1923 and succeeded him second department of medical statistics in 1910 at as professor at the London School of Hygiene and the Lister Institute and established the second Tropical Medicine and director of the Medical course of lectures there. -
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments Numerous people have helped in various ways to ensure that we achieved the best possible outcome for this book. We would especially like to thank the following: Colin Aitken, Carol Alexander, Peter Ayton, David Balding, Beth Bateman, George Bearfield, Daniel Berger, Nic Birtles, Robin Bloomfield, Bill Boyce, Rob Calver, Neil Cantle, Patrick Cates, Chris Chapman, Xiaoli Chen, Keith Clarke, Julie Cooper, Robert Cowell, Anthony Constantinou, Paul Curzon, Phil Dawid, Chris Eagles, Shane Cooper, Eugene Dementiev, Itiel Dror, John Elliott, Phil Evans, Ian Evett, Geir Fagerhus, Simon Forey, Duncan Gillies, Jean-Jacques Gras, Gerry Graves, David Hager, George Hanna, David Hand, Roger Harris, Peter Hearty, Joan Hunter, Jose Galan, Steve Gilmour, Shlomo Gluck, James Gralton, Richard Jenkinson, Adrian Joseph, Ian Jupp, Agnes Kaposi, Paul Kaye, Kevin Korb, Paul Krause, Dave Lagnado, Helge Langseth, Steffen Lauritzen, Robert Leese, Peng Lin, Bev Littlewood, Paul Loveless, Peter Lucas, Bob Malcom, Amber Marks, David Marquez, William Marsh, Peter McOwan, Tim Menzies, Phil Mercy, Martin Newby, Richard Nobles, Magda Osman, Max Parmar, Judea Pearl, Elena Perez-Minana, Andrej Peitschker, Ursula Martin, Shoaib Qureshi, Lukasz Radlinksi, Soren Riis, Edmund Robinson, Thomas Roelleke, Angela Saini, Thomas Schulz, Jamie Sherrah, Leila Schneps, David Schiff, Bernard Silverman, Adrian Smith, Ian Smith, Jim Smith, Julia Sonander, David Spiegelhalter, Andrew Stuart, Alistair Sutcliffe, Lorenzo Strigini, Nigel Tai, Manesh Tailor, Franco Taroni, Ed Tranham, Marc Trepanier, Keith van Rijsbergen, Richard Tonkin, Sue White, Robin Whitty, Rosie Wild, Patricia Wiltshire, Rob Wirszycz, David Wright and Barbaros Yet. xvii K10450.indb 17 09/10/12 4:19 PM. -
A Complete Bibliography of Applied Statistics: 1952–1959
A Complete Bibliography of Applied Statistics: 1952{1959 Nelson H. F. Beebe University of Utah Department of Mathematics, 110 LCB 155 S 1400 E RM 233 Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0090 USA Tel: +1 801 581 5254 FAX: +1 801 581 4148 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] (Internet) WWW URL: http://www.math.utah.edu/~beebe/ 14 March 2019 Version 4.03 Title word cross-reference [136]. Adjusting [356]. Administration [81]. Advanced [326, 75]. Age [351]. Agricultural [359, 65, 77]. Aid [104]. Aitchison [269]. Alan [326]. Allen χ2 [199]. [253, 98]. Allocation [211]. Analysed [214]. Analysis -Test [199]. [82, 229, 54, 48, 94, 140, 18, 327, 8, 247, 260, 306, 181, 328, 302, 296, 340, 262, 122, 145, 10th [49]. 11th [254]. 1951 [4]. 231, 160, 57, 285, 341, 152, 93, 324, 359, 92]. Answer [200, 142]. Answers 2 [187]. 2nd [312]. [89, 184, 10, 34, 45]. any [197]. Application [348, 49, 254, 276, 138]. Applications A. [76, 49, 254, 112, 363, 78]. Absence [12, 24, 36, 47, 61, 73, 90, 110, 125, 143, 155, [120, 105]. Absence-Proneness [120]. 173, 185, 201, 26, 312, 246, 132]. Applied Abuses [8]. Acceptance [303]. [347, 140]. Appraisal [166]. Approach Accounting [195]. Accounts [295, 350, 42, 7, 253]. Aptitude [112]. [113, 241, 364]. Accumulation [150]. Arbous [112]. Arithmetic [345]. Arthur Accuracy [31, 118, 9]. Achieve [261]. [266]. Aspects [310, 315]. Assessments Ackoff [159]. Action [120, 130]. Active 1 2 [353]. Associated [95]. Attributes [304]. [278, 320, 180]. Charts [66, 258]. Chemical Auction [277]. Auditing [350, 69]. -
“I Didn't Want to Be a Statistician”
“I didn’t want to be a statistician” Making mathematical statisticians in the Second World War John Aldrich University of Southampton Seminar Durham January 2018 1 The individual before the event “I was interested in mathematics. I wanted to be either an analyst or possibly a mathematical physicist—I didn't want to be a statistician.” David Cox Interview 1994 A generation after the event “There was a large increase in the number of people who knew that statistics was an interesting subject. They had been given an excellent training free of charge.” George Barnard & Robin Plackett (1985) Statistics in the United Kingdom,1939-45 Cox, Barnard and Plackett were among the people who became mathematical statisticians 2 The people, born around 1920 and with a ‘name’ by the 60s : the 20/60s Robin Plackett was typical Born in 1920 Cambridge mathematics undergraduate 1940 Off the conveyor belt from Cambridge mathematics to statistics war-work at SR17 1942 Lecturer in Statistics at Liverpool in 1946 Professor of Statistics King’s College, Durham 1962 3 Some 20/60s (in 1968) 4 “It is interesting to note that a number of these men now hold statistical chairs in this country”* Egon Pearson on SR17 in 1973 In 1939 he was the UK’s only professor of statistics * Including Dennis Lindley Aberystwyth 1960 Peter Armitage School of Hygiene 1961 Robin Plackett Durham/Newcastle 1962 H. J. Godwin Royal Holloway 1968 Maurice Walker Sheffield 1972 5 SR 17 women in statistical chairs? None Few women in SR17: small skills pool—in 30s Cambridge graduated 5 times more men than women Post-war careers—not in statistics or universities Christine Stockman (1923-2015) Maths at Cambridge.