Tropical Storm Tracking with Sailmail/Winlink by Carolyn K
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Conference Poster Production
65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida February 28 - March 3, 2011 Hurricane Earl:September 2, 2010 Ocean and Atmospheric Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictions: Challenges and Recent Progress S E S S Session 2 I The 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review O N 2 The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Extremely Active but no U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Eric Blake and John L. Beven II ([email protected]) NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was quite active, with 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes and 5 of which reached major hurricane intensity. These totals are well above the long-term normals of about 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Although the 2010 season was considerably busier than normal, no hurricanes struck the United States. This was the most active season on record in the Atlantic that did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and was also the second year in a row without a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline. A persistent trough along the east coast of the United States steered many of the hurricanes out to sea, while ridging over the central United States kept any hurricanes over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico farther south over Central America and Mexico. The most significant U.S. impacts occurred with Tropical Storm Hermine, which brought hurricane-force wind gusts to south Texas along with extremely heavy rain, six fatalities, and about $240 million dollars of damage. Hurricane Earl was responsible for four deaths along the east coast of the United States due to very large swells, although the center of the hurricane stayed offshore. -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico
JULY 2005 F ARFÁN AND CORTEZ 2069 An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFÁN Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C., Unidad La Paz, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico MIGUEL CORTEZ Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua, México, Distrito Federal, Mexico (Manuscript received 20 July 2004, in final form 26 January 2005) ABSTRACT This paper documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja California peninsula. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and proceeded northward in the Gulf of California. A network of surface meteorological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected strong winds. Satellite and radar imagery are used to analyze the structure of convective patterns, and rain gauges recorded total precipitation. A comparison of Marty’s features at landfall, with respect to Juliette (2001), indicates similar wind intensity but differences in forward motion and accumu- lated precipitation. Official, real-time forecasts issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center prior to landfall are compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid configuration with hori- zontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km, with two (72- and 48-h) simulations. -
Minnesota Weathertalk Newsletter for Friday, January 1, 2010
Minnesota WeatherTalk Newsletter for Friday, January 1, 2010 To: MPR Morning Edition Crew From: Mark Seeley, University of Minnesota Extension Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk Newsletter for Friday, January 1, 2010 Headlines: -Preliminary climate summary for December 2009 -Weekly Weather Potpourri -MPR listener question -Almanac for January 1st -Past weather features -Auld Lang Syne -Outlook Topic: Preliminary Climate Summary for December 2009 Mean December temperatures were generally 1 to 2 degrees F cooler than normal for most observers in the state. Extremes for the month ranged from 52 degrees F at Marshall on December 1st to -23 degrees F at Orr on the 12th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states on five days during the month. Nearly all observers in the state reported above normal December precipitation, mostly thanks to the winter storms and blizzards on the 8th and 9th and again on the 24th and 25th. Many communities reported three to four times normal December precipitation. Winnebago with 3.05 inches recorded the 2nd wettest December in history, while Lamberton with 3.76 inches also reported their 2nd wettest December in history. Browns Valley in Traverse County reported their wettest December in history with 1.98 inches. Snowfall amounts were well above normal as well. Many climate observers reported over 20 inches. Worthington reported a record amount of snow for December with 34.6 inches, while Fairmont and Lamberton also reported a new record monthly total with 36.3 inches. The blizzard on December 8-9 closed highways and schools in many southeastern communities with winds gusting to 45-50 mph. -
Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Validation Using
1 Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Validation Using 2 Dropsondes 3 4 Daniel J. Cecil1 and Sayak K. Biswas2 5 6 1 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 7 2 Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 8 9 10 11 Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 12 13 14 15 Corresponding author email: [email protected] 16 17 Abstract 18 Surface wind speed retrievals have been generated and evaluated using Hurricane 19 Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) measurements from flights over Hurricane Joaquin, Hurricane 20 Patricia, Hurricane Marty, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika, all in 2015. Procedures are 21 described here for producing maps of brightness temperature, which are subsequently used for 22 retrievals of surface wind speed and rain rate across a ~50 km wide swath for each flight leg. An 23 iterative retrieval approach has been developed to take advantage of HIRAD’s measurement 24 characteristics. Validation of the wind speed retrievals has been conducted, using 636 25 dropsondes released from the same WB-57 high altitude aircraft carrying HIRAD during the 26 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment. 27 The HIRAD wind speed retrievals exhibit very small bias relative to the dropsondes, for 28 winds tropical storm strength (17.5 m s-1) or greater. HIRAD has reduced sensitivity to winds 29 weaker than tropical storm strength, and a small positive bias (~2 m s-1) there. Two flights with 30 predominantly weak winds according to the dropsondes have abnormally large errors from 31 HIRAD, and large positive biases. From the other flights, root mean square differences between 32 HIRAD and the dropsonde winds are 4.1 m s-1 (33%) for winds below tropical storm strength, 33 5.6 m s-1 (25%) for tropical storm strength winds, and 6.3 m s-1 (16%) for hurricane strength 34 winds. -
RA IV Hurricane Committee Thirty-Third Session
dr WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE THIRTYTHIRD SESSION GRAND CAYMAN, CAYMAN ISLANDS (8 to 12 March 2011) FINAL REPORT 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION At the kind invitation of the Government of the Cayman Islands, the thirtythird session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee was held in George Town, Grand Cayman from 8 to 12 March 2011. The opening ceremony commenced at 0830 hours on Tuesday, 8 March 2011. 1.1 Opening of the session 1.1.1 Mr Fred Sambula, Director General of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, welcomed the participants to the session. He urged that in the face of the annual recurrent threats from tropical cyclones that the Committee review the technical & operational plans with an aim at further refining the Early Warning System to enhance its service delivery to the nations. 1.1.2 Mr Arthur Rolle, President of Regional Association IV (RA IV) opened his remarks by informing the Committee members of the national hazards in RA IV in 2010. He mentioned that the nation of Haiti suffered severe damage from the earthquake in January. He thanked the Governments of France, Canada and the United States for their support to the Government of Haiti in providing meteorological equipment and human resource personnel. He also thanked the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and others for their support to Haiti. The President spoke on the changes that were made to the hurricane warning systems at the 32 nd session of the Hurricane Committee in Bermuda. He mentioned that the changes may have resulted in the reduced loss of lives in countries impacted by tropical cyclones. -
State of the Climate in 2010
State of the climate in 2010 Citation Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer. “State of the Climate in 2010.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92 (2011): S1-S236. Web. 8 Dec. 2011. © 2011 American Meteorological Society As Published http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-92.6.S1 Publisher American Meteorological Society Version Final published version Accessed Mon Mar 26 14:41:06 EDT 2012 Citable Link http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67483 Terms of Use Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. Detailed Terms J. Blunden, D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer, Eds. Associate Eds. H. J. Diamond, A. J. Dolman, R. L. Fogt, B. D. Hall, M. Jeffries, J. M. Levy, J. M. Renwick, J. Richter-Menge, P. W. Thorne, L. A. Vincent, and K. M. Willett Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 92, No. 6, June 2011 STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2010 STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2010 JUNE 2011 | S1 HOW TO CITE THIS DOCUMENT __________________________________________________________________________________________ Citing the complete report: Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer, Eds., 2011: State of the Climate in 2010. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S1 –S266. Citing a chapter (example): Fogt, R. L., Ed., 2011: Antarctica [in “State of the Climate in 2010”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S161 –S171. Citing a section (example): Wovrosh, A. J., S. Barreira, and R. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010
VOLUME 140 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2012 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010 STACY R. STEWART AND JOHN P. CANGIALOSI National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 29 June 2011, in final form 6 November 2011) ABSTRACT The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was one of the least active seasons on record. Only seven named storms developed, which is the lowest number observed at least since routine satellite coverage of that basin began in 1966. Furthermore, only three of those storms reached hurricane status, which is also the lowest number of hurricanes ever observed in the satellite-era season. However, two tropical storms made landfall: Agatha in Guatemala and Georgette in Mexico, with Agatha directly causing 190 deaths and moderate to severe property damage as a result of rain-induced floods and mud slides. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2010 were quite skillful. 1. Introduction the maximum sustained wind speed at 6-h intervals for all (sub)tropical storms and hurricanes. The ACE for The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season con- the 2010 season was 50 3 104 kt2, or about 46% of the tinued the trend of generally quieter than average seasons long-term (1971–2009) median value of 109 3 104 kt2. since 1995 (Fig. 1; Table 1) (Wang and Lee 2009). A total Two hurricanes, Celia and Darby, accounted for 70% of of seven tropical storms developed, of which three became the total ACE for the season. The 2010 season had the hurricanes, including two major hurricanes [maximum third lowest ACE since 1971, ahead of only 1977 and 1-min winds of greater than 96 kt (1 kt 5 0.5144 m s21), 2007. -
HURRICANE MARTY (EP172015) 26 – 30 September 2015
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE MARTY (EP172015) 26 – 30 September 2015 Robbie Berg National Hurricane Center 5 January 2016 NASA TERRA/MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE MARTY AT 1735 UTC 28 SEPTEMBER 2015, NEAR THE TIME OF ITS PEAK INTENSITY WHILE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO Marty was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that meandered off the southwestern coast of Mexico for a few days. Marty caused heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero. Hurricane Marty 2 Hurricane Marty 26 – 30 SEPTEMBER 2015 SYNOPTIC HISTORY A tropical wave that moved across the west coast of Africa on 10 September contributed to Marty’s formation off of the southern coast of Mexico. While moving westward across the tropical Atlantic the wave split, with the slower-moving northern portion initiating the development of Tropical Depression Nine on 16 September over the central Atlantic. The faster-moving southern portion of the wave reached the northern coast of South America on the same day and moved across Venezuela and Colombia through 21 September. The wave continued westward, and deep convection increased over a large area south of the coasts of Mexico and Central America during the next few days. Satellite images indicated that a well-defined low pressure system developed by 1200 UTC 26 September, and the associated convection became sufficiently organized and persistent for the system to be designated as a tropical depression at 1800 UTC that day while centered about 290 n mi southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. -
Tri-‐Agency Forecast Discussion for August 29, 2010 Created 1600 UTC
Tri-Agency Forecast Discussion for August 29, 2010 Created 1600 UTC August 29, 2010 GRIP Forecast Team: Henry Fuelberg, Ellen Ramirez, Dan Halperin, Karry Liu, Leon Nguyen, Diana Thomas, Andrew Martin, and Cerese Inglish Summary: Today is another active day for the GRIP field program in FLL and STX. From an operations standpoint for GRIP, Earl is the main area of interest. The storm was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane at 1230Z this morning and continues to show signs of intensification this afternoon (the official NHC intensity forecast shows Earl becoming a major hurricane at 31/00Z). The DC-8 was scheduled to takeoff at 1400Z today, but was delayed due to a bird strike while the aircraft was still on the ground. After inspection and testing of the effected engine, it was determined that the aircraft could indeed continue with a science flight. The DC-8 departed from STX at approximately 1630Z and, as of this discussion, is conducting a science flight into Hurricane Earl. Since STX is currently under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch, there is some uncertainty as to whether the aircraft will recover to STX or to FLL tonight. As it stands now, it will recover to STX and depart early tomorrow morning (~1200Z) for another science flight which will recover in FLL. Possible science flights into Earl from FLL in the coming days will be determined later. The WB-57 will make a final go/no-go decision regarding a suitcase flight to Tampa Monday morning. At this time, they plan to transit to Tampa on Monday and conduct science flights in Earl potentially Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. -
EP072016 Frank.Pdf
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE FRANK (EP072016) 21 – 28 July 2016 Lixion A. Avila National Hurricane Center 20 September 2016 GOES 15 SATELLITE IMAGE AT 0000 UTC 27 JULY SHOWING THE EYE OF FRANK AT THE TIME THE HURRICANE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. IMAGE COURTESY OF THE NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY. Frank was the fifth hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific basin during July of 2016, marking a new record for this month. Frank produced sustained tropical-storm- force winds on Socorro Island. Hurricane Frank 2 Hurricane Frank 21 – 28 JULY 2016 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Frank’s origin was associated with a large-amplitude tropical wave that moved off of the west coast of Africa on 10 July. The wave travelled westward across the tropical Atlantic with little thunderstorm activity, and reached the western Caribbean Sea on 18 July. On 19 July, upper-air data from Central America showed that the wave had a well-defined mid-level circulation while the convection was increasing. The wave continued westward and its associated cloudiness and thunderstorms gradually became better organized on 20 July just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The formation of a tropical depression occurred at 0600 UTC 21 July about 250 n mi south of Manzanillo, Mexico. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 11. The cloud pattern continued to become better organized, and by 1200 UTC 21 July, the system was a tropical storm. -
Community–Based Opportunities Needs
ICF_COVERS_NEEDS 2/21/06 11:44 AM Page 1 BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR’S COMMUNITY–BASED OPPORTUNITIES ARTS & CULTURE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & EDUCATION NEEDS ENVIRONMENT HEALTH 2006 ICF_COVERS_NEEDS 2/21/06 11:44 AM Page 2 BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR’S COMMUNITY-BASED OPPORTUNITIES & NEEDS Edited by: Richard Kiy Anne McEnany Chelsea Monahan UABCS Authors: Micheline Cariño Sofía Cordero Leticia Cordero Jesús Zariñán Mario Monteforte Cándido Rendón Additional Research Support: Y. Meriah Arias, Ph.D. Juan Salvador Aceves Emmanuel Galera Spanish Translation: Cristina del Castillo Shari Budihardjo Saytel Martin Lopez Volunteers and Interns: Kate Pritchard Dion Ward Jennifer Hebets Lisette Planken Reviewers: Gabriela Flores Paul Ganster, Ph.D. Fernando Ortiz Ministerios Enrique Hambleton Sergio Morales Polo Amy Carstensen Cinthya Castro Julieta Mendez Online Version: Hong Shen Graphic Design and Maps: Amy Ezquerro Fausto Santiago Mario Monteforte ICF gratefully acknowledges the generosity of the individuals and family foundations that financially supported this publication. COVER PHOTOS: Front cover: Niños del Capitán daycare center, Cabo San Lucas Back cover (clockwise from upper left): Dentist at Niños del Capitán medical clinic, Cabo San Lucas; Girls at community center operated by Fundación Ayuda Niños La Paz, La Paz; Child at Niños del Capitán; Mammillaria in bloom; Volunteers and children at Liga MAC, Cabo San Lucas; Fishing family, Agua Verde. 2 PREFACE y all accounts, the state of Baja California Sur is one of the In an effort to better assess the current and future needs of Baja most ecologically diverse and beautiful places in the California Sur and expand charitable giving across the state, the BWestern Hemisphere with diverse, arid terrain and International Community Foundation (ICF) is proud to release aquamarine water containing an abundance of marine life.