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Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 6

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Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 6 ENG.20070925.0012 Design Calculation or Analysis Cover Sheet 1. QA: QA SSC 2. Page 1 Complete only applicable items. 3. System 14. Document Identifier Waste Handling System OOO-OOC-WHSO-00200-000-00F 5. Title Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 6. Group Prec10sure Safety Analyses 7. Document Status Designation D Preliminary ~ Committed D Confirmed D Cancelled/Superseded 8. Notes/Comments Chris Kimura performed a methodology review. This revision supersedes Rev. OOE. Due to extensive reorganization of sections, no revisions bars have been used. The document has been checked as an extensive revision. Attachments Total Number of Pages 1. Flights Through the Beatty Corridor 4 II. Flight distribution in the Nevada Test and Training Range and Nevada Test Site Airspace 4 III. Information on a Sample of Military Aircraft Crashes 40 IV. Derivation of Small Military Aircraft Crash Rate 6 V. Effective Target Areas and Beatty Corridor Crash Frequency 6 VI. Sensitivity Calculations 16 RECORD OF REVISIONS 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 10. 9. Total # Last Originator Checker EGS ApprovedlAccepted No. Reason For Revision of Pgs. Pg.# (PrinUSign/Date) (PrinUSign/Date) (PrinUSign/Date) (PrinUSign/Date) OOA Initial issue 39 39 Guy Ragan Peter Davis N/A Dennis Richardson Nohemi Ramirez 5/07/04 OOB Reflect changes in safety approach. Reflect 84 IV-8 Guy Ragan Pierre Macheret N/A Dennis Richardson changes in inputs. Supersede Rev. OOA John Wang 2/14/05 OOC Change the size and shape of the flight• 84 IV-8 Guy Ragan Pierre Macheret N/A Dennis Richardson restricted airspace. Cite a revised reference and 5/2/05 delete another reference because copyright clearance for a reference was denied. Make other minor technical and editorial changes. Supersede Rev. OOB. OOD Reflect changes in safety approach. Include 84 IV-6 K.L. Ashley Pierre Macheret N/A Mark Wi senburg additional discussion and justification of 8/23/05 assumptions. Address CR-5664 and CR-5665. OOE Reflect changes in safety approach and 136 VI-14 K.L. Ashley Pierre Macheret N/A Mark Wisenburg rewriting for clarity. Reduce the flight• 10/24/06 restricted airspace radius. Add additional aircraft crash data. Revise surface facility assumptions. Reformatting r• OOF Add additional aircraft crash data. Revise 152 VI-16 K.L. Ashley Pierre~cheret I~ rkMse;[~ surface facility assumptions. y(.J~ 'Pf\t "o91l"o:# 1. L..J ~/If//l.()() ~~~a. ,}14/ ~ \ ..~l~ 7 r", Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 000-00C-WHS0-00200-000-00F Page 2 DISCLAIMER The calculations contained in this document were developed by Bechtel SAIC Company, LLC (BSC) and are intended solely for the use of BSC in its work for the Yucca Mountain Project. Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 000-00C-WHS0-00200-000-00F Page 3 CONTENTS Page ACRONYMS.................................................................................................................................. 9 1. PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................. 11 2. REFERENCES...................................................................................................................... 14 2.1 PROCEDURES/DIRECTIVES ...................................................................................14 2.2 DESIGN INPUTS........................................................................................................14 2.3 DESIGN CONSTRAINTS ..........................................................................................26 2.4 DESIGN OUTPUTS....................................................................................................26 3. ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................... 27 3.1 ASSUMPTIONS REQUIRING VERIFICATION......................................................27 3.2 ASSUMPTIONS NOT REQUIRING VERIFICATION.............................................27 3.3 ASSUMPTIONS NOT REQUIRING VERIFICATION THAT CALL FOR DESIGN OR OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS ...................................................44 4. METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................ 47 4.1 QUALITY ASSURANCE...........................................................................................47 4.2 USE OF SOFTWARE .................................................................................................47 4.3 AIRCRAFT HAZARDS METHODOLOGY..............................................................47 5. LIST OF ATTACHMENTS.................................................................................................. 60 6. BODY OF CALCULATION ................................................................................................ 61 6.1 INPUTS FROM INTERNAL SOURCES ...................................................................61 6.2 INPUTS FROM EXTERNAL SOURCES ..................................................................63 6.3 FREQUENCY-SCREENING THRESHOLD.............................................................67 6.4 EFFECTIVE TARGET AREAS OF THE SURFACE FACILITIES .........................67 6.5 CRASH FREQUENCIES FOR FIXED-WING AIRCRAFT......................................68 6.6 HELICOPTER CRASHES ..........................................................................................72 6.7 DROPPED OR JETTISONED ORDNANCE.............................................................72 6.8 UNCERTAINTIES......................................................................................................73 6.9 SENSITIVITY CALCULATIONS .............................................................................73 7. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................... 75 ATTACHMENT I. FLIGHTS THROUGH THE BEATTY CORRIDOR .................................I-1 ATTACHMENT II. FLIGHT DISTRIBUTION IN THE NEVADA TEST AND TRAINING RANGE AND NEVADA TEST SITE AIRSPACE ....................................... II-1 ATTACHMENT III. INFORMATION ON A SAMPLE OF MILITARY AIRCRAFT CRASHES .......................................................................................................................... III-1 Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 000-00C-WHS0-00200-000-00F Page 4 CONTENTS (Continued) Page ATTACHMENT IV. DERIVATION OF SMALL MILITARY AIRCRAFT CRASH RATE..................................................................................................................................IV-1 ATTACHMENT V. EFFECTIVE TARGET AREAS AND BEATTY CORRIDOR CRASH FREQUENCY....................................................................................................... V-1 ATTACHMENT VI. SENSITIVITY CALCULATIONS........................................................VI-1 Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 000-00C-WHS0-00200-000-00F Page 5 FIGURES Page 1. Features Near the Repository....................................................................................................12 2. The Beatty Corridor ..................................................................................................................13 3. Illustration of Exponential Airway Models ..............................................................................51 4. Illustration of Flight-Restricted Airspace Divided into Ten Sections ......................................55 5. Sample Cumulative Distribution Function of Crash Distances ................................................59 I-1. Flights Through the Beatty Corridor On 7 June 2005………………………………………I-3 Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 000-00C-WHS0-00200-000-00F Page 6 INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Frequency Analysis of Aircraft Hazards for License Application 000-00C-WHS0-00200-000-00F Page 7 TABLES Page 1. Relevant Surface Structures......................................................................................................29 2. Estimates of Annual Traffic Counts for the Beatty Corridor....................................................31 3. Aircraft Counts On the Beatty Corridor From Two Weeks In 2005 ........................................32 4. Aircraft Counts On the Beatty Corridor In 2006 ......................................................................33 5. Flight Counts On the Beatty Corridor for Various Years.........................................................33 6. McCarran International Airport Landing Statistics ..................................................................34 7. McCarran Landing versus Flights in the Beatty Corridor ........................................................35 8. Aircraft Crashes Within the Nevada Test and Training Range and Military Operations Areas ...............................................................................................................................40 9. Example Edge Adjustments as a Function of Distance From the Airway................................51 10. Calculation of Type 1 Events Endangering Facilities..............................................................56 11. Aircraft Hazards Considered...................................................................................................61 12. Characteristics of Relevant Surface Structures........................................................................62 13. Aircraft Characteristics Used for Effective
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