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What's on the Table… News of the Day… Daybreak Malaysia July 30, 2012 KLCI 1,624.94 Gainers/Losers… Turnover Regional Indices (+1.03pts /+0.06% ) Gainers 396 1,381m units / RM4,103m KLCI 1,625 Losers 365 3m avg. - RM1,536 FSSTI 2,998 - July futures 1623.5 (+0.09% ) Unchanged 337 JCI 4,084 - Aug futures 1624.5 (+0.09% ) SET 1,178 HSI 19,275 What’s on the Table… Charts & Statistics Banks - Cheaper cars may come fitted with collateral damage Index Chart Opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat has vowed to lower car duties if it wins the FBMKLCI Index 1700 next election. A consequential drop in car prices will be negative for banks due 1650 to (1) slower growth in auto loans, and (2) higher credit costs resulting from the 1600 lower resale value for cars. Even without the lowering of car duties, we are 1550 1500 concerned about weaker loan growth and margin squeeze affecting Malaysian 1450 banks. As such, the sector remains a Neutral despite undemanding CY13 P/E of 1400 10.8x valuation and attractive yield. Maybank is still our top pick. 1350 1300 Malaysian Resources Corp - M&A angle back in play Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Source: Bloomberg MRCB is reportedly looking to acquire property developer Nusa Gapurna. Terence Wong CFA While talks are still preliminary, this is a positive surprise and will renew T (60) 3 20849689 sentiment on the stock. The injection of the 60-acre land bank locks-in a new E [email protected] earnings stream after KL Sentral. Our target price is still pegged to a 30% discount to RNAV. While the deal, if partially funded by new MRCB shares, Market Indices… may only result in a modest 3% RNAV accretion, we believe there are long-term Close Closing 08.30% change WIB 14.00YTD WIB (% chg) FBMKLCI 1,625 0.1 6.2 positives. We expect newsflow on the progress in 2H12. Maintain Trading Buy FBM100 10,938 0.1 6.1 FBMSC 12,247 0.3 4.9 and not Outperform due to election overhang. M&A news and job wins are FBMMES 4,346 0.6 6.8 catalysts. Dow Jones 13,076 1.5 7.0 NASDAQ 2,958 2.2 13.5 FSSTI 2,998 (0.2) 13.3 Malaysia Airports Holdings - The brakes are on growth FTSE-100 5,627 1.0 1.0 Hang Seng 19,275 2.0 4.6 MAHB’s slightly disappointing interims, at 44% of our full-year estimates show JCI 4,084 2.0 6.9 KOSPI 1,829 2.6 0.2 that route cuts by local carriers early in the year are starting to bite, leading to a Nikkei 225 8,567 1.5 1.3 slowdown in passenger traffic. We are cutting our passenger growth forecast PCOMP 5,220 1.3 19.4 SET 1,178 0.4 14.9 from 6.9% to 5.4% for 2012. This reduces our DCF-derived target price. We Shanghai 2,129 0.1 (3.2) Taiwan 7,124 2.2 0.7 remain Neutral as the stock lacks immediate catalysts and concerns over the delays and costs of KLIA2 will cap share price upside. But our earnings Top Actives… forecasts are upgraded 2-7% as it will no longer equity-account losses from its RM % change Turnover (m) associate Sabiha. We prefer AirAsia for exposure to the sector. IHH 3.150 0.0 39.108 INGENS 0.120 4.4 29.413 MAXIS 6.400 (2.1) 25.035 Alpha Edge - US still in rebound mode? INGENS-WA 0.055 0.0 22.404 DAYA 0.205 5.1 18.151 UOADEV-CB 0.130 30.0 16.816 News of the Day… HARVEST 0.520 (6.3) 16.691 BIOSIS-WA 0.155 (6.1) 16.391 • MRCB expected to win RM1bn job for the Sungai Buloh-Kajang (SBK) MRT line? • MPHB expects gaming growth to come from migration of illegal to legal games Economic Statistics… • 80,000ha in Sarawak's Baram/Belaga districts developed into oil palm land Close % change • M&A among Malaysian steel players encouraged to ensure the survival? US$/Euro 1.2322 0.32 RM/US$ (Spot) 3.170 0.00 • Greece agree on most of the austerity measures worth €11.5bn for 2013 and 2014 RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.1949 (0.23) • US GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in 2Q12 OPR (% ) 3.00 0.00 BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.60 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1622.9 0.44 WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 90.13 0.83 CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 2,915 0.93 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA July 30, 2012 Global Economic News… Taiwan and China are expected to forge a much-anticipated investment protection agreement in the next round of high-level talks in August. An agreement on investment protection has been high on the bilateral agenda of China and Taiwan since the two former rivals signed a sweeping trade pact in the middle of 2010. (CNA) Thailand’s industrial output contracted 9.6% yoy in June (+6% in May), more than the -0.8% expected by the market. “The manufacturing sector may slow in July because of high risks from the global economic slowdown,” Sophon Pholprasit, the office’s director general. (Bloomberg) The Bank of Thailand expects deterioration in Europe's sovereign debt crisis and economic policy changes in the United States to be key factors that could swing the baht over the next several months. Dr Prasarn said the Bank of Thailand could deal with a surge of capital inflows through the mechanism of foreign exchange, rebalancing with outflows, market intervention and capital controls. "We have found that the economy has almost reached its potential," said Dr Prasarn. "The output gap is closing. Inflation is subdued and tilted toward the middle of our target range." (Bangkok Post) Indonesia projects investment in the third quarter of 2012 to reach Rp81.75tr (US$8.66bn), up 25% yoy. (IFT) China enacted new rules for foreign investors, in a much-anticipated move to ease restrictions and grant them broader market access. Under the new rules, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it had lowered minimum qualification requirement and simplified the approval process for applicants under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors program, the primary program for foreign investors to enter China's capital markets. (AWSJ) China's industrial profits fell 1.7% yoy in June, easing from May's 5.3% decline and raising hopes that the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing as policy stimulus gains traction. (Reuters) US consumer confidence dropped in July to the lowest level this year. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of sentiment declined to 72.3 this month from 73.2 in June. The gauge was projected to hold at the preliminary reading of 72, according to median estimates. (Bloomberg) US GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in 2Q12 after rising at a 2% pace in the first three months of the year. (Bloomberg) Japan’s National CPI was down 0.2% yoy in Jun (+0.2% in May), lower than expectations of 0%. Tokyo’s CPI for Jul declined 0.8% yoy (-0.6% in Jun) (Bloomberg) Japan’s retail trade rose 0.2% yoy in Jun (3.6% in May), weaker than economists’ expectations of a 1.1% increase. (Bloomberg) 2 July 30, 2012 Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker said the currency zone was ready to act with the European Central Bank and activate the bailout fund. "We have come to a crucial point. But we have to outline the pace and scope. We will act together with the ECB..." he said, speaking of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund. (AFP) German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti agreed that the European Union’s summit conclusions last month must be implemented “as quickly as possible”. Merkel and Monti “agreed that Germany and Italy will do everything to protect the euro area,” German government spokesman said. (Bloomberg) Political leaders in Greece have agreed on most of the austerity measures worth €11.5bn for 2013 and 2014 demanded by its creditors and are now eyeing pension and wage cuts to find the final €1.5bn of savings still needed. (Reuters) Malaysian Economic News… PM Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak Sunday announced "Duit Raya" (Hari Raya money) totalling RM43.2m for all Felda settlers (vs. RM42.6m last year). The awarding of the "Duit Raya" was divided into two categories, namely settlers with Felda and settlers who were not with Felda. A total 103,597 settlers or 91.9% who are with Felda will receive RM400 each and this involves an allocation of RM41.4m. A total 9,038 settlers or 8.02% who are not with Felda will receive RM200 each involving RM1.8m. Najib also announced grants for mosque committees in Felda settlements totalling RM792,500, RM951,000 for the Ihya Ramadan programme and RM540,000 for the same programme in Felda parliamentary constituencies. (Bernama) Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Ratings Services on 27 July affirmed its A-/A-2 foreign currency and A/A-1 local currency sovereign credit ratings on Malaysia, with a stable outlook. In a statement, it also affirmed its Asean scale rating on Malaysia at axAAA/axA-1+. The sovereign credit rating on Malaysia reflects the country’s strong external liquidity position, its competitive middle-income economy and high savings rate, S&P said.
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