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ASLIT Investor Update Presentation

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ASLIT Investor Update Presentation Aberforth Partners LLP Presentation to ASLIT Investors May 2021 14 Melville Street ‐ Edinburgh EH3 7NS Tel 0131 220 0733 ‐ Fax 0131 220 0735 [email protected] ‐ www.aberforth.co.uk Aberforth Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Aberforth Unit Trust Managers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority Aberforth Partners update . Over 30 years of value investing ─ We remain committed to the self‐imposed ceiling on the business ─ AUM capped at c.1.5% of the NSCI (XIC)’s market cap ─ Unchanged ownership structure, collegiate approach, investment focus . A consistent process as the partnership continues its natural evolution ─ Sonya Kim joined as an investment manager on 1 March 2021 ─ The investment managers’ biographies are included in the appendix . Alignment of interests through the managers’ significant holdings . UK Stewardship Code 2020 – updated report available on our website Aberforth Partners LLP 1 Performance – periods to 30 April CAGR 16 months to Total Return %YTD1 YearApril 2021 *Launch **Inception FTSE All‐Share 9.7 25.9 ‐1.1 3.6 3.6 FTSE 250 (XIC) 12.2 41.2 2.7 5.8 5.8 FTSE SmallCap (XIC) 23.4 69.5 25.5 8.2 8.2 NSCI (XIC) 16.9 55.9 11.9 6.9 6.9 ASLIT Total Assets 22.8 55.1 ‐1.9 3.2 2.4 ASLIT ORD NAV 31.5 83.3 ‐2.8 3.4 2.5 ASLIT ORD share price 22.0 85.8 ‐5.4 ‐0.5 ‐ ASLIT ZDP share price 3.2 5.2 2.8 2.9 ‐ *Excludes the effects of launch costs **Inception date for ASLIT was 30/06/2017 . The recovery was initiated by the vaccines and has continued into 2021 . 16 month period to April underlines the cyclical skew of the portfolio Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; FTSE; London Business School. Data as at 30 April 2021. 2 Factor effects on 16 month performance to 30 April 2021 . We seek to understand businesses and value them, engaging when appropriate . But factors affect the performance of our portfolios . The influence of factors has changed markedly over the course of the pandemic 16M to April 2021 10M to October 2020 6M to April 2021 Total return relative The full period The pandemic in full swing The vaccine recovery Share prices fall Share prices rebound ASLIT Total Assets TR / NSCI (XIC) ‐12% ‐21% +11% Style factor: Value / growth within NSCI (XIC) ‐6% ‐24% +23% Consistent value philosophy Size factor: Smaller smalls / larger smalls +22% +5% +16% Portfolio over‐weight smaller smalls Geographical factor: Domestics / overseas within NSCI (XIC) ‐4% ‐15% +7% Portfolio over‐weight domestics Factor positioning scores: = bad for the portfolio's relative performance, = good Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; FTSE; London Business School. Data as at 30 April 2021. 3 Winners and losers –4 months to 30 April 2021 10 Best winners Total return Contribution 8 Worst Losers Total return Contribution Rank Company(%) (bp) Rank Company (%) (bp) 1Reach 53 226 1 Provident Financial ‐20 ‐40 2Wincanton 72 206 2Vectura Group ‐10 ‐17 3 Bakkavor Group 69 116 3PayPoint ‐7 ‐16 4Vitec Group 54 101 4Centamin ‐13 ‐13 5 Redde Northgate 37 98 5Morgan Advanced Materials ‐4 ‐11 6 Lookers 214 86 6Sabre Insurance Group ‐2 ‐3 7 International Personal Finance 57 85 7Chesnara ‐3 ‐1 8Vistry Group 34 78 8Ultra Electronics Holdings 00 9TI Fluid Systems 24 71 10 CMC Markets 25 59 . Contribution is absolute return performance in basis points Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; Portfolio Evaluation. Data as at 30 April 2021. 4 Purchases and sales –4 months to 30 April 2021 Top 10 Purchases Top 10 Sales Rank Company £m Rank Company £m 1 Rathbone Brothers 2.2 1Reach 2.3 2 International Personal Finance 1.7 2Forterra 2.2 3City Of London Investment Group 1.2 3RDI 2.1 4Chesnara 1.1 4Halfords Group 1.5 5Crest Nicholson Holdings 0.9 5 Bloomsbury Publishing 1.0 6Headlam Group 0.9 6Senior 0.9 7Vivo Energy 0.8 7Vitec Group 0.9 8Brewin Dolphin Holdings 0.8 8U and I Group 0.6 9Anglo Pacific Group 0.6 9Wincanton 0.4 10 S&U 0.6 10 Hostelworld Group 0.4 New Holding or Total Sales . 4 month annualised turnover is 17% . Market recovery allows “value roll” to recommence . “Value roll”: sale of relatively expensive stocks & reinvestment into cheaper stocks ─ In the 4 months, average 2023 EV/EBITA of sales 11.5x versus 7.4x for purchases Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP. Data as at 30 April 2021. 5 Analysis of the December results season . 99 companies in Aberforth’s Tracked Universe with December year ends ─ A useful cross‐section of the small cap universe Aggregate Median Δ Aggregate Median Δ 2019 2020 2021 Δ YoY YoY Δ YoY YoY Sales £85bn £71bn ‐16% ‐10% £79bn 10% 7% % with higher sales 27% 78% EBITA £7.5bn £3.5bn ‐54% ‐31% £5.9bn 69% 12% % with higher EBITA 27% 65% Margin 8.9% 4.9% 7.5% % with higher Margin 29% 81% Capex to depreciation ratio 1.34x 0.95x 1.28x % with ratio > 1 63% 34% 41% Aggregate net debt * £21bn £19bn £21bn % with a stronger balance sheet 62% 42% All figures exclude resources companies on account of the volatility in their profits; *Aggregate net debt excludes banks . The earnings of the portfolio fell sharply on account of its cyclical exposure ─ Despite a terrible year for profits, the results do suggest a degree of resilience . The portfolio stands to benefit from economic recovery and normalisation ─ There are signs that companies will start to reinvest for future growth ─ A return to pre‐pandemic trend profits probably comes in 2023 Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; London Business School. Data as at 31 March 2021. 6 Income –improving dividend experience Portfolio categorised by holding's most recent dividend action 25 20 Other includes companies that passed dividends 15 in 2020, but were companies of able to return to 10 20 21 the register Number 5 999 0 down nil payer no change increase other . Not all holdings are forecast to return to pre‐pandemic dividend levels by 2024 ─ The managers continue to engage with boards on dividend policy . However, many companies are returning to the register earlier than expected ─ This improves confidence in the “Board’s ambition … that the rate of decline in the second interim dividend will be no worse than that of the first interim dividend.” . Revenue reserves entering the current financial year were 0.86p . Share price and dividend progress are aligned in this recovery phase Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP. Data as at 30 April 2021. 7 Balance sheets –net debt/EBITDA categories . The chart shows the resilience of smaller companies using Aberforth’s forecasts ─ The bars are for the Tracked Universe, the crosses for the portfolio ─ The exposure to high leverage reduces in 2022 and 2023 ─ This reflects the underlying generation of free cash flow 55% Leverage profile of ASLIT and the Tracked Universe X 50% X X 45% X 40% X 35% Portfolio & X 30% Universe 25% Tracked of 20% value 15% by X % X 10% X 5% 0% Net cash balance sheets Balance sheets < 2x Balance sheets > 2x Tracked Universe position at 30/4/2021 Tracked 2022 Basis Tracked 2023 Basis X ASLIT position at 30/04/2021 X ASLIT 2022 Basis X ASLIT 2023 Basis Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; London Business School. Data as at 30 April 2021. 8 Valuations –historical PEs Absolute historical PE: Aberforth portfolio 20x 18x Absolute PE of the portfolio +1 Standard deviation 16x . Back to the long term average 14x x 12x PE ─ The chart illustrates the cyclical 10x 8x ‐1 Standard deviation influence on valuations 6x 4x ─ PEs have reached higher levels in previous recoveries Aberforth PE Portfolio PE relative to NSCI (XIC) PE Relative historical PE: Aberforth portfolio vs NSCI (XIC) 1.20 . Re‐rating to long term average 1.10 +1 Standard deviation 1.00 ─ Out‐performance during the 0.90 0.80 relative vaccine recovery x ‐1 Standard deviation 0.70 PE 0.60 ─ Portfolio’s earnings dropped more 0.50 0.40 sharply and should rebound more sharply too Aberforth v NSCI (XIC) Relative historical PE: NSCI (XIC) vs FTSE All‐Share (XIC) NSCI (XIC) PE versus FTSE All‐Share PE 1.60 . 1.40 Small companies unusually cheap 1.20 +1 Standard deviation relative to large companies 1.00 relative ─ Small cap profits have fared better PE 0.80 ‐1 Standard deviation 0.60 ─ Sector effects influential 0.40 NSCI (XIC) v FTAS (XIC) Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; London Business School. Data as at 30 April 2021. 9 Prospects for value after six months of the rally . ASLIT has benefited from a rotation to value since the vaccine announcements ─ Risks remain: Brexit and the development of the pandemic . But what might allow the rotation to continue? 1. Continued normalisation ─ The recovery from the pandemic and recession has not fully played out ─ See Portfolio categorisation slide for what this might mean for the portfolio 2. Reflation ─ Monetary policy is joined by fiscal stimulus to jump‐start higher economic activity ─ The split between real economic growth and inflation is unclear ─ Both could be seen to benefit the prospects of value relative to growth 3. Value has led since the vaccines, but growth has not retrenched ─ Growth cohort of NSCI (XIC) +28% since 31 October 2020 ─ Money has not yet moved meaningfully away from growth Aberforth Partners LLP Source: Aberforth Partners LLP; London Business School.
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