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Preliminary Overview of the Economies of the Caribbean 2017-2018”, Studies and Perspectives Series – ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, No ISSN 1728-5445 eclac subregional studies and headquarters SERIES PERSPECTIves for the caribbean Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2017–2018 Sheldon McLean Dillon Alleyne Michael Hendrickson Machel Pantin Nyasha Skerrette Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/suscripciones 74 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2017–2018 Sheldon McLean Dillon Alleyne Michael Hendrickson Machel Pantin Nyasha Skerrette This document has been prepared by Sheldon McLean, Coordinator of the Economic Development Unit of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, with the assistance of Dillon Alleyne and Michael Hendrickson, Economic Affairs Officers, and Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette, Economic Affairs Assistants. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization. United Nations publication ISSN: 1728-5445 (electronic version) ISSN: 1727-9917 (print version) LC/TS.2019/6 LC/CAR/TS.2018/2 Distribution: L Copyright © United Nations, 2019 All rights reserved Printed at United Nations, Santiago S.18-01013 This publication should be cited as: S. McLean and others, “Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2017-2018”, Studies and Perspectives Series – ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, No. 74 (LC/TS.2019/6; LC/CAR/TS.2018/2), Santiago, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2019. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives Series – The Caribbean – No. 74 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean… Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 7 I. Macroeconomic policy ................................................................................................................. 11 A. Fiscal policy and public debt .................................................................................................. 11 1. Fiscal flexibility ............................................................................................................. 14 2. Public debt ..................................................................................................................... 15 3. Debt service payments ................................................................................................... 16 B. Monetary policy, domestic credit and inflation...................................................................... 17 1. Interest rates ................................................................................................................... 17 2. Monetary supply and credit ............................................................................................ 19 3. Inflation .......................................................................................................................... 20 II. The external sector ....................................................................................................................... 23 A. Current account ...................................................................................................................... 23 B. Terms of trade ........................................................................................................................ 24 C. Foreign direct investment ....................................................................................................... 25 III. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 27 IV. Country notes ............................................................................................................................... 29 A. Bahamas ................................................................................................................................. 29 B. Barbados ................................................................................................................................ 31 C. Belize ..................................................................................................................................... 33 D. Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) ......................................................................... 35 E. Guyana ................................................................................................................................... 38 F. Jamaica ................................................................................................................................... 40 G. Suriname ................................................................................................................................ 42 H. Trinidad and Tobago .............................................................................................................. 44 Studies and Perspectives Series – The Caribbean: Issues published .................................................. 47 3 ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives Series – The Caribbean – No . 74 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean… Table s Table 1 Actual and projected growth rates 2016-2018..................................................................................7 Table 2 Latin American and Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2012-2018.....................................................8 Table 3 Tourist stop-over arrivals 2013-2017.................................................................................................9 Table 4 Unemployment rates 2013-2017.......................................................................................................10 Table 5 Overall fiscal balance..........................................................................................................................11 Table 6 Fiscal expenditure by category..........................................................................................................13 Table 7 Total public debt, 2015-2017 ............................................................................................................16 Table 8 Lending rate, deposit rate and spread, 2016-2017 .........................................................................18 Table 9 Monetary aggregates and domestic credit to the private and public sector, 2016-2017 ............................................................................................................19 Table 10 Inflat ion rates........................................................................................................................................20 Table 11 Bahamas: main economic indicators................................................................................................31 Table 12 Barbados: main economic indicators ...............................................................................................33 Table 13 Belize: main economic indicators.....................................................................................................35 Table 14 Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: main economic indicators .................................................37 Table 15 Guyana: main economic indicators ..................................................................................................39 Table 16 Jamaica: main economic indicators..................................................................................................42 Table 17 Suriname: main economic indicators ...............................................................................................43 Table 18 Trinidad and Tobago: main economic indicators...........................................................................46 Figures Figure 1 Unemployment rate, 2013-2017 .......................................................................................................10 Figure 2 Public debt vs fiscal balance..............................................................................................................12 Figure 3 Fiscal fle xib ility inde x ........................................................................................................................15 Figure 4 Lending rate, deposit rate and spread, 2016-2017 .........................................................................18 Figure 5 Inflat ion .................................................................................................................................................21 Figure 6 Current account balance 2017 ...........................................................................................................24
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