38 The downtown 416 Toronto skyline seen from suburban 905-land. 905 gave the Conservatives a sweep in 2011. In 2015 it swept them out. Istock photo So Much for the Big Shift: How Ontario Went Liberal Thomas S. Axworthy and Rana Shamoon When Stephen Harper was propelled to a majority gov- n Canadian Federal Elections, all roads to power in Ottawa run ernment in 2011 in part thanks to a sweep of Ontario I through Ontario: It is the indis- ridings around Toronto, some concluded that his victo- pensable province. In the 2015 elec- tion, after redistribution, Ontario ry represented a fundamental shift in Canadian elec- gained 15 new seats for a total of 121 toral patterns. Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party and seats compared to 78 seats in Quebec, 62 seats in the Prairies, 42 seats in Brit- Ontario voters proved that theory wrong on Oct. 19. ish Columbia, and 32 seats in Atlantic Tom Axworthy and Rana Shamoon analyze the results Canada. In 2015, the Liberal Party of of the 2015 campaign in the country’s most populous Justin Trudeau won 80 Ontario seats, compared to 11 in 2011; the Conser- province, and what they could mean for Trudeau in vative Party won 33, down from 73 in four years. 2011; and the NDP won 8 seats, down from 22 in 2011. The 80 Ontario Liberal seats form more than 43 per cent of the total Liberal caucus. The Liberal success in Ontario is the fundamental bedrock in explaining how the country’s “natural governing party” returned to govern. Policy 39 Number of seats by party So what happened? What are the big Ontario in Ontario takeaways from 2015? Elections are won by bringing 2011 2015 out your core vote, attracting new voters to your camp, Conservative 73 33 depressing your opponent’s core vote so that they will at Liberal 11 80 least stay home, and attracting vote switches. The Liberal NDP 22 8 campaign succeeded on these fronts in Ontario in 2015. Total seats 106 121 the Liberals 45 per cent). The Conser- Percentage votes by party Number of votes by party vative message of low taxes, less gov- in Ontario in Ontario ernment and a more bellicose foreign 2011 2015 2011 2015 policy resonated with millions of Conservative 44.4% 35.0% Conservative 2,457,463 2,287,179 voters. But there was widespread re- pudiation of the mores and tactics of Liberal 25.3% 44.8% Liberal 1,400,302 2,923,791 the Harper PMO, with even dedicated NDP 25.6% 16.6% NDP 1,417,435 1,084,555 conservative-leaning Canadians like Conrad Black and Andrew Coyne Total Voter Total Voter Turnout 61.5% 68.5% Turnout 5,531,478 6,532,714 publicly leaving the Conservative camp. Leaders have a shelf life and Harper was overripe. So what happened? What are the big his was most evident in the The one truly catastrophic result was Ontario takeaways from 2015? Elec- Greater Toronto Area: the for the NDP, led by Tom Mulcair. tions are won by bringing out your GTA received 11 of the 15 T The NDP vote in Ontario fell from core vote, attracting new voters to new Ontario seats awarded in the re- 1,417,435 in 2011 to 1,084,555 in your camp, depressing your oppo- distribution. At 55 seats, this is more 2015—roughly 30 per cent of their nent’s core vote so that they will at seats than eight of the provinces. The 2011 support in Ontario either stayed least stay home, and attracting vote GTA is two distinct political realms, switches. The Liberal campaign suc- labelled by area code: the 416 is To- home or voted for another party. In ceeded on these fronts in Ontario ronto proper while the 905 suburban 2015 in Ontario, the NDP had only in 2015. Turnout was the first key belt includes the municipalities that 16.6 per cent of the vote and eight change: 68.3 per cent voting in On- surround it. The party that wins the seats compared to 25.6 per cent of the tario compared to 61.5 per cent in 905 wins government. In 2011, the vote and 22 seats in 2011. 2011. The Trudeau campaign theme Conservatives won 21 of 22 seats in After the debacle of the 2011 Liberal of generational change was predicat- the 905 and nine of 23 in the 416. But campaign, both the Conservatives ed on the assumption that new voters in 2015, in the larger GTA pool after and NDP were gleeful. The “strange could be enticed to the polls. And the redistribution, the Liberals won all of death of Liberal Canada” was largely increase of voters in Ontario proved the seats in the 416 and 24 of 29 seats forecast by partisans in both camps, detrimental to the Harper Conserva- in the 905. Symbolic of this shift, her- as the Conservatives hoped to create a tives, who had a dedicated pool of oine of the 905, legendary Mississau- permanent Conservative majority co- support but without much growth ga mayor Hazel McCallion, not only alition, and the NDP planned to vault potential. In 2011, the Liberal base— endorsed the Liberals but she starred from opposition to government by re- disenchanted by then-leader Michael in campaign ads. Southern Ontario placing the Liberal Party as the mod- Ignatieff—stayed home: The raw stayed largely Conservative but the erate progressive hope. The astound- number of Liberal voters fell from 905 turned red and that was the differ- ing 2011 election result saw the NDP 1,743,241 in 2008, to only 1,400,302 ence. “Are you ready for change, my rise from third to second with 103 in 2011. But in 2015, the raw Liberal friends?” asked Trudeau at an October seats, and the Conservatives seem- vote jumped to 2,923,791, a 1.5 mil- rally of 7,000 supporters in Brampton. ingly firmly ensconced with a major- lion increase. In Ottawa and Toronto, They were ready. ity of 166. In 2011, with an unpopu- for example, the Liberal vote was over The Conservatives were defeated in lar Liberal leader and a galvanizing 50 per cent compared to a third for Ontario but not routed. The Conser- Jack Layton at the helm of the NDP, the Conservatives and 13 per cent vatives’ raw vote fell from 2,457,463 the country, especially Ontario and for the NDP. The Liberal campaign in 2011 to 2,287,179 in 2015, a nota- Quebec, bled blue and orange. But was textbook—the base turned out, ble decline in a larger voter pool to be it turned out to be a blip, not a criti- the opponent’s base support fell, and sure, but not a calamitous one. The cal re-alignment election. As Brian new voters added enough weight to Conservatives still have 35 per cent Mulroney once observed, the Liberal win an eightfold increase in seats. of the vote in Ontario (compared to Party is a tough old bird, not easily November/December 2015 40 disposed of. And so it proved in 2015. here again as the former natural gov- Last, the Liberals swept Ontario but erning party returns to government? they did very well in Quebec, too, win- he 2015 election was a referen- This question was asked to a day-after ning 40 seats and 35 per cent of the dum on Stephen Harper—a panel organized by the Toronto Board vote, their best showing since 1980 T referendum the Conservatives of Trade featuring noted strategists under Pierre Trudeau. The Quebec re- lost. But with 70 per cent of voters from each of the major parties: Jaime gional campaign also had an impact desiring change, it was much less Watt, John Duffy and Robin McLach- in Ontario: as the NDP began to crash clear who would be the beneficiary lan. This impressive trio noted three in Quebec because of the niqab issue of the “time for a change” sentiment. definite mistakes or misreadings of and the return of the Bloc Québécois, Trudeau was aided by the mistakes the 2015 campaign that Trudeau will the air began to slowly seep from the of his opponents, especially those of have to avoid. The first is that, while balloon of Tom Mulcair. As the NDP Thomas Mulcair. Orange is not the acknowledging the skill of the Liberal began to fall, the anybody-but-Harper new red: Mulcair ran a campaign as a campaign, the Liberals greatly benefit- vote across the country, but especially sitting prime minister before he had ed from the errors of their opponents, in Ontario, coalesced around Trudeau. ever been elected to the post. Keith most notably the strategic blunder of Historically, the reason why the Liberal Davey, the famous Liberal rainmaker, the NDP’s small-c conservative stance, Party has been so successful is because used to say that Liberals had to cam- and the Conservatives’ fixation on the of its Quebec base. As a Quebecer, Jus- paign from the left and govern on the niqab issue, and jumping the shark tin Trudeau has a chance to restore right. Mulcair changed the formula to with a brazen announcement about that base. But responding to Quebec’s campaign from the right and be left aspirations while keeping the rest of a hotline for “barbaric cultural prac- behind. The NDP running on a plat- the country on side (or at least not op- tices.” The Liberals cannot count on form of a balanced budget gave an posed) requires tremendous judgment such electoral gifts from the gods in opening on the progressive side of and a lot of luck.