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Updated Methodology and Results for Report Card 2015 Modelling pollutant load changes due to improved management practices in the Great Barrier Reef catchments: updated methodology and results Technical Report for Reef Report Card 2015 Prepared by Contact Gillian McCloskey and David Waters David Waters 07 4529 1395 Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the State of Queensland. Creative Commons This material is licensed under a Creative Commons - Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License is a standard form license agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en.The full licence terms are available from www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. To reference this volume McCloskey, G.L., Waters. D., Baheerathan, R., Darr, S., Dougall, C., Ellis, R., Fentie, B., Hateley, L. 2017. Modelling pollutant load changes due to improved management practices in the Great Barrier Reef catchments: updated methodology and results – Technical Report for Reef Report Cards 2015, Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Brisbane, Queensland. Disclaimer The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The Queensland Government shall not be liable for technical or other errors or omissions contained herein. The reader/user accepts all risks and responsibility for losses, damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from using this information. Acknowledgments: This project is part of the Queensland and Australian Government’s Paddock to Reef program. The project is funded by the Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines ‘Queensland Regional Natural Resource Management Investment Program 2013–2018’ with support from the Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts (DSITIA). Technical support was provided by a number of organisations and individuals, including Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Science (DSITIA), Queensland Hydrology (DSITIA) and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). We would also like to thank the reviewers for providing feedback on this report. Source Catchments modelling – Updated methodology and results Executive Summary In this report the updated methodology and latest Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Report Card load reduction results are presented. Minor methodological changes have occurred since the release of the previous report card (Report Card 2014 (RC2014)). These include, recalibration of hydrology in a number of regions to better represent the baseflow portion of total flow, the implementation of instream deposition and remobilisation in three regions, and minor updates to adjustable parameters. The recalibration of hydrology to align baseflow proportions with calculated values produced more typical ranges of baseflow particularly in the larger, drier, grazing catchments (Burdekin, Fitzroy and Cape York (CY)). In these regions many gauges were recalibrated and commonly the baseflow portion decreased from previous calibration proportions. The recalibration had negligible impact on average annual flow across the GBR with a small increase of 1% to 73,500,000 ML/yr. Instream deposition and remobilisation functionality were implemented in the Wet Tropics (WT), Mackay Whitsunday (MW) and Burnett Mary (BM) regions for RC2015. The average annual baseline loads for RC2015 are presented in Table 1. Generally the updated average annual baseline loads are higher than the RC2014 loads, except for the photosynthesis II toxic equivalent (PSII TE) pesticides which are approximately 10% lower than RC2014. The minor increase in loads from the previous Report Card are in part due to the recalibration of hydrology resulting in a minor increase in flow and therefore constituent loads. The decrease in PSII TE load from RC2014 is likely a product of a shift to alternative products. Table 1 Baseline GBR constituent loads TSS TN DIN DON PN TP DIP DOP PP PSII TE (kt/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (t/yr) (kg/yr) 9,925 55,083 12,028 18,303 24,753 13,418 2,143 1,074 10,201 6,758 The progress towards Reef Plan targets is presented in Figure 1. ‘Moderate’ progress has been made towards the fine sediment load reduction target of 20%. The cumulative reduction across the GBR is 12.3%, with the Burdekin region at 17.2%. ‘Very good’ progress is reported for Particulate Phosphorus (PP) reduction, which is well over half way towards the target at 14.7%. The WT is the only region to have reached the target having achieved a 20.7% reduction. For Particulate Nitrogen (PN), the cumulative reduction is 11.6%, which is classified as ‘moderate’ progress, with the Burdekin region showing the greatest progress with a reported 15.3% reduction thus far. Progress towards the DIN target of 50% is classified as ‘very poor’ as it stands at 18.1% for RC2015. Only the Burnett Mary region is making ‘good’ progress at 31.5%. Reductions in PSII TE load are rated as ‘moderate’ with a reduction of 33.7% across the GBR. Progress has been most improved in the MW region with a 44% reduction thus far. 3 Source Catchments modelling – Updated methodology and results In summary, progress is being made for all constituents towards reaching the Reef Plan water quality targets. There is scope for greater reductions to be achieved managing DIN in the WT where progress is at 14.7% or ‘very poor’, and for sediment in the Fitzroy and BM regions, with both regions reporting ‘very poor’ progress at 5.5% and 3% respectively. The ratings of performance for load reductions are available at www.reefplan.qld.gov.au. It should be noted that the scoring system has changed since RC2014. Figure 1 Progress towards Reef Plan targets till 2015 for the whole of GBR 4 Source Catchments modelling – Updated methodology and results Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 3 List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................... 11 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ 15 Acronyms .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Definitions of sources and sinks ........................................................................................................... 19 Modelling assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 20 Introduction............................................................................................................................................ 22 Model Improvement Cycle ................................................................................................................. 23 Integrating modelling and monitoring ............................................................................................. 24 Application of modelling outputs .................................................................................................... 25 Quality assurance and peer review ............................................................................................... 25 Methods................................................................................................................................................. 27 GBR methodology updates ............................................................................................................... 28 Hydrology ....................................................................................................................................... 28 Hillslope generation model ............................................................................................................ 29 Sugarcane constituent generation ................................................................................................. 30 HowLeaky cropping constituent generation ................................................................................... 30 In-stream models ........................................................................................................................... 30 Predevelopment Model .................................................................................................................. 31 Constituent load validation ................................................................................................................ 31 Performance ratings ....................................................................................................................... 31 Scenario modelling – All A and All B management ........................................................................... 32 Baseline Model .............................................................................................................................. 32 All B Scenario ................................................................................................................................ 33 All A Scenario ...............................................................................................................................
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