The Geopolitical Evolution of Central Asia: Region During the World Crisis
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FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG THE KAZAKHSTAN INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES AT THE PRESIDENT Murat T.Laumulin THE GEOPOLITICAL EVOLUTION OF CENTRAL ASIA: REGION DURING THE WORLD CRISIS Almaty – 2012 УДК ББК Л Murat T.Laumulin. The Geopolitical Evolution of Central Asia: Region during the World Crisis. – Almaty: Fridrich Ebert Stiftung, Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, 2012. – _ p. Лаумулин М.Т. Геополитическая эволюция Центральной Азии: регион в эпоху мирового кризиса. – Алматы: ФФЭ-КИСИ, 2012. – 308 с. (на англ.яз.) Издание осуществлено при поддержке Представительства Фонда им. Фридриха Эберта в Центральной Азии Утверждено к печати Ученым советом Казахстанского института стратегических исследований при Президенте РК Настоящее издание является продолжением предыдущих (англоязычных) книг автора, посвященных геополитике и международным отношениям вокруг и в Центральной Азии, а также проблемам международной и региональной безопасности. В первой части монографии рассматриваются основные теории и концепции зарубежных (преимущественно западных) экспертов. Вторая часть книги изучает геополитические проблемы региона, стратегию и политику великих держав (России, США, Европейского Союза, КНР) в Центральной Азии. Данные стратегии рассматриваются как в отношении всего региона в целом, так и на примере политики геополитических акторов в отношении отдельных центральноазиатских государств. Третья часть книги посвящена проблемам безопасности в Центральной Азии и включает в себя сюжеты, связанные с влиянием ситуации в Афганистане на безопасность региона. Отдельное место занимает такая проблема как радикальный ислам и его влияние на Центральную Азию. Специальный раздел посвящен роли Ирана в региональной политике и его стратегии по формированию «Пакс Ираника». События в Киргизии, которые имели сильный резонанс с точки зрения сохранения стабильности и безопасности в регионе, также нашли отражение в работе. И наконец, специальная глава посвящена внешней политике Казахстана, председательству РК в ОБСЕ и усилиям Астаны по укреплению евразийской безопасности. Монография рассчитана на специалистов-международников, востоковедов и политологов. Книга может использоваться в качестве учебного пособия на факультетах международных отношений и политологии. Л ББК (С) Лаумулин М.Т., 2012 ISBN 2 Contents Introduction: Central Asia on the Eve of the World Crisis Part I. Central Asia in Modern Politology 1. Classification of Scholarly Writings on Central Asia 2. Central Asia in Contemporary Political Science: Problems and Approaches to Them 3. Europe and Central Asia: Identical Interests 4. Japan, China, and Central Asia: From Eurasian to Pan-Asian Strategy 5. Regional Problems 6. India and Central Asia: Geopolitical Reconnection 7. Russia: More Than a Neighbor Part II. The Major Powers and Central Asia 1. Russian Policy toward Central Asia under Putin Russia’s Foreign Policy Strategy under Vladimir Putin Russia’s Policy in the CIS 2. Russia’s Strategic Interests and Their Influence on Central Asia Russia’s Interests in Kazakhstan Russia’s Interests in other Central Asian States Russian Strategy on the Caspian Issue Russia and Security Problems in Central Asia 3. Russia and Central Asia: Limits for Strategic Partnership Relations with Uzbekistan Relations with Turkmenistan Policy towards Kyrgyzstan Russian Relations with Tajikistan Policy of Russia towards Kazakhstan 4. The US Geopolitical Experience in Central Asia The Evolution of American Strategy in Central Asia Methods and Tools of America’s Central Asian Policy America’s Changed Strategy in Central Asia The Results of the US experience in Central Asia 5. U.S. Central Asian Policy under President Barack Obama Principles, Methods, and Tasks of Barack Obama’s Central Asian Policy The U.S. and Kazakhstan The U.S. and Kyrgyzstan The U.S. and Uzbekistan The U.S. and Turkmenistan The U.S. and Tajikistan 6. The EU and Central Asia: Préhistoire EU Strategic Interests in Central Asia New EU Strategy: the German Project 3 Kazakhstan’s Way to Europe and the OSCE Unanimous Opinion on the EU Role in Central Asia 7. The European Union is Readjusting Its Central Asian Strategy EU Strategy in Central Asia: A Security Factor Differentiated Approach to the Central Asian Countries From Central Asia to Eurasia Central Asia and the Security Problems of the European Union 8. The Discussions on the Role of China in the Region 9. The Sino-Kazakh Relations and Energy Cooperation Part III. The Security Problems of Central Asia 1. The Situation over Afghanistan 2. Islamic Radicalism in Central Asia 3. Central Asia, Iran and “Pax Iranica” Iran — the Center of Pax Iranica Afghanistan – A Bridge in the Persian-Speaking Expanse Tajikistan – Periphery of Pax Iranica? 4. The Crisis of 2010 in Kyrgyzstan and its Impact on the Regional Agenda Kyrgyz Economy in 2005-2010 Domestic Politics: The Crisis is Mounting Bakiev’s Regime The Crisis Escalates “Russian Factor” Could Kazakhstan Help? 5. Kazakhstan’s OSCE Chairmanship and Eurasian Security 6. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy and International Security The Heritage of 2010 Traditional Policy Security Problems and the European Vector Instead of Conclusion: Looking in the future – Kazakhstan during XXI Century Additional Bibliography: 2008-2011 About the Author 4 Introduction: Central Asia on the Eve of the World Crisis This book is a logic continuation of our previous editions published in English and issued the geopolitics of Central Asia.1 On the eve of the world crisis, the years 2007-08 was a time of geopolitical changes for the region, some of which remained latent but completely analyzable. The geoeconomic factors and the worldwide financial crisis (a crisis of liquidity and defaults as well as instability in the international financial markets), the rising prices for basic commodities such as energy resources and foodstuffs, the economic growth in Russia, China, and India, and the rising importance of the energy security issue, etc. inevitably affected the situation in Central Asia.2 The 2007-2008 crisis began in the mortgage system of the United States and spread like wildfire to the global banking and financial systems. It caused an economic decline in the United States and, by the end of 2007, reached the euro zone. Depreciation of the world’s main currency has hit the global economy; the value of dollar savings is steadily decreasing while export incomes converted into national currencies are losing their value. Transborder investment projects are at risk. 1 Laumulin M. The Foreign Policy and Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. – Almaty: Eurasia Foundation and MacArthur Foundation, 1997. - 169 p. idem. The Security, Foreign Policy and International Relationship of Kazakhstan after Independence: 1991-2001. Almaty: KazISS and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2002. – 212 p. Laumulin M., Ashimbaev M. New Challenges and New Geopolitics in Central Asia: after September 11”. Almaty: KazISS, 2003. – 198 p. idem. Central Asia and the West: the Geopolitical Impact on the Regional Security. – Almaty: KazISS/KazNU, 2004. – 219 p. idem. The Geopolitics of Central Asia in 21st Century. – Almaty: KazISS, 2007. - 281 p. idem. The Kazakhs: Children of the Steppes. (in cooperation with Chokan Laumulin). – Kent (UK): Global Oriental, 2009. – XI+150 pp. 2 See: Laumulin M. Geopolitical Landmarks: Central Asia Today // Central Asia and the Caucasus (Lulea, Sweden). No 5 (2008), pp. 19-35. idem. New Geopolitical Framework of Central Asia // Central Asia’s Affairs (Almaty, KazISS). 2009. No 1, pp. 6-13. 5 Strange as it may seem the states with currencies that could run the risk of gaining value have the largest dollar reserves. This fully applies to the tenge of Kazakhstan. At this time, there was the danger of an uncontrollable and highly uncertain situation developing in the global economy that could continue for a long time to come. Countries and regions are exposed to considerable cumulative effects in the political or even military-political spheres. What is going on in the world today may hit the Kazakhstani economy either in the financial or the real sector: a financial shock spreads faster than a shock in the consumer sphere, which politicians should also take into account. The United States was steadily losing control over its own national currency; it is no longer able to keep down inflation without raising the interest rate. The latter invites liquidity but interferes with economic growth. Translated into terms of the global financial order, this means that the dollar is on the verge of losing its anchor currency status. This may happen much earlier than expected. The rest of the world will be hit: the universal currency served all and helped maintain international stability. Deprived of a peg currency, the global financial system might slide into a crisis. It is commonly believed that the euro may serve as an adequate alternative to the dollar, but its survival is not guaranteed: even the lowest global inflation might cause serious problems. This has already created geopolitical tension, which, along with U.S. protectionism, might undermine the world economy and provoke a global recession. In the changing global economic context the list of major geopolitical actors involved in Central Asia remained the same, even though they readjusted their preferences and involvement. They are the West (represented by the United States, the European Union, and Japan), Russia, China, and the Islamic world. India has been demonstrating its mounting interest in the region for some time. The West (America