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Kyrgyzstan Brief No 2 2 № December 2005 - January 2006 Valentin Bogatyrev: TABLE OF CONTENTS Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan: how to build new “Today, any country is relations with an old friend incorporated into a great Kumar Bekbolotov ..........................................2 variety of connections, and building a unidirectional Topical issues of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy BRIEF KYRGYZSTAN policy would mean to lose Roundtable proceedings ...............................10 one’s sovereignty.” - p. 14 The dangers of property redistribution Emil Umetaliev: Kumar Bekbolotov, Shairbek Juraev .............17 “Unprotected business Guest of the issue: Emil Umetaliev .........................................21 does not have confi dence in further development, and Constitutional changes: issues and is set to withdraw capital preconditions from the country.” - p. 22 Roundtable proceedings ...............................25 Civil service today: problems and solutions Esenbek Urmanov .......................................39 ABOUT IPP The Institute for Public Policy (IPP) is an independent, non-partisan research and policy-making institution, based in Bishkek. Its goals are to develop and promote participatory approach in establishing public policy; to strengthen expert analysis in order to promote effective decision-mak- ing in matters of public policy and to create an independent platform for dialogue on public policy issues. The Institute provides expert consulting, research and surveys on Central Asian affairs, confl ict management serv- ices as well as implementation of educational and cultural projects aimed at good governance. Institute for Public Policy 42/1 Isanov kochosu Bishkek 720017 Kyrgyzstan Tel/Fax: +996(312) 215763 Email: offi [email protected] Website: http://www.ipp.kg The publication was supported by grants from: OSI Assistance UK Embassy Foundation Almaty No part of this publication may be reproduced without permission of the Institute for Public Policy 2 № Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan: how to build new relations with an old friend HOW TO BUILD NEW RELATIONS WITH AN OLD FRIEND If before, the calm, diplomatic facade concealed turbulent negotiations, if the mutual assurances of eternal friendship only disguised a chaotic policy of ad-hoc problem solving, now more than ever the day’s agenda should include Kyrgyzstan developing a new strategy in relation to the region’s superpower - Kazakhstan. KYRGYZSTAN BRIEF KYRGYZSTAN Kumar Bekbolotov1 due to colossal energy resources and purposeful economic policies, ruled by Presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan an able and authoritarian leader who and Kazakhstan were perhaps the most fi rmly defends his right to strong lead- important events in the region in 2005. ership. While in Kyrgyzstan they took place af- For today’s political elite of Kyr- ter the “Tulip Revolution,” confi rming gyzstan, Kazakhstan is becoming a the legitimacy of new authorities for the strategically important state. next fi ve years, in Kazakhstan the in- Kyrgyzstan has begun to realize cumbent leader, Nursultan Nazarbaev, that, despite maneuvering amongst the claimed a massive victory, gaining the world’s superpowers (US, Russia and right to rule for another seven years. It China), in geopolitical dimensions it is should be mentioned here that the Ka- above all dependent on Kazakhstan. zakh leader’s election campaign placed For instance, any blocking of the trans- a strong emphasis on critiquing Kyr- portation routes that Kyrgyzstan’s gyzstan’s situation… economy relies on may lead to the iso- The latest events related to Kyr- lation of the country. One region of Kyr- gyzstan’s northern neighbor (expansion gyzstan (Talas) is completely depend- of Kazakh businesses in Kyrgyzstan, ent on Kazakhstan, and could soon be- ill-treatment of work migrants, closure come an appendage of Kazakhstan’s of borders, etc.) demonstrate that Kyr- Jambyl region with regard to trade and gyzstan strongly needs to shape its raw materials. “Kazakhstan policy.” Within Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is If before, the calm, diplomatic facade forced to seek an alliance with the re- concealed turbulent negotiations, if the gional superpower, which Kazakhstan mutual assurances of eternal friendship is becoming. The USA, Russia and only disguised a chaotic policy of ad- China will defi nitely remain key players hoc problem solving, now more than in the region, but the Kazakh infl uence ever the day’s agenda should include can be felt with increasing strength in Kyrgyzstan developing a new strategy the daily life of Kyrgyzstanies. in relation to the region’s superpower - It is no secret that the political elite Kazakhstan. of Kyrgyzstan who came to power af- ter the March events are competing Mutual Perspectives: amongst themselves to gain the favor Kazakhstan In The of Nursultan Nazarbaev, frequenting the Eyes Of Kyrgyzstan southern and northern capitals of Ka- zakhstan. Top offi cials regularly praise In the eyes of many Kyrgyzstanies, the neighboring country’s president. Kazakhstan is fi rst of all a country that Some of the Kyrgyzstani politicians are has achieved serious economic growth discussing the possibility of creating a 1Kumar Bekbolotov is country director of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in Kyrgyzstan. He holds MA in Political Science from Central European University. -2- 2 № Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan: how to build new relations with an old friend confederation with Kazakhstan. political opponents of the previous re- In late April, on his fi rst state visit gime. Furthermore, so far there has abroad as the interim president, Kur- been no convincing denunciation of the manbek Bakiev went to Kazakhstan rumors that Kazakh special police force and met with Nazarbaev. Acting vice units participated in the March 20, 2005 Prime Minister Daniar Usenov went on assault of the main government build- the trip as well. ing in Jalalabad, occupied at the time BRIEF KYRGYZSTAN In late July, acting vice Prime Minis- by the opposition forces. ter Adakhan Madumarov had important For Kyrgyz society, the Kyrgyz au- meetings in Almaty to save the tourism thorities’ clear readiness to make season in Issykkul. In mid-June Daniar large political concessions to Kaza- Usenov participated in an international khstan is an alarming trend that signi- business conference of the Asian So- fi es strengthening Kazakh infl uence. In ciety in Almaty, where he announced addition, there are fears that having a his intention to create a Council of For- strong enough infl uence on Kyrgyz pol- eign Investors in order to protect their itics, Kazakh capital can actively lobby interests in Kyrgyzstan. Within a short its interests and affect the results of key period, Prime Minister Felix Kulov vis- appointments in government and par- ited Kazakhstan twice, visiting Astana liamentary elections. in October and Taraz in December. Such fears are aggravated by the fact This attention shows how much that in both countries, the personality stronger a role Kazakhstan plays for element of internal politics traditionally the new Kyrgyz political elite. Yet, more has a strong infl uence on foreign policy and more often issues are raised of po- decisions. During the period of “mari- tential risks and dangers coming from tal relations” between the presidential Kyrgyzstan’s northern neighbor. families of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, In political dimensions, there is a there was a short but noticeable phase great risk of gradual cooption and/or in- of rapprochement, when many issues, tegration of Kyrgyzstan’s political elites such as the delimitation of the Kazakh- in the event of the creation of some Ka- Kyrgyz border, were solved more eas- zakh-Kyrgyz political arena inside Kyr- ily. In 2001-2002, after the dynastic gyzstan. The idea of joining with Ka- marriage failed, the relations cooled. zakhstan in a confederation is closely Anti-Kazakh feelings were raised in associated with the development of Kyrgyzstan, and limitations were intro- such an arena. At the same time, the duced in Kazakhstan on Kyrgyz transit fact that Kyrgyzstan risks losing its in- and imports, with a 200% increase of dependence frightens many supporters tariffs.1 of such regional integration. Considering Kyrgyzstan’s inconsist- The close relationship of Kyrgyzstan’s ent history in offi cial positions on many fi rst presidential family to Kazakhstan critical incidents related to Kazakhstan (involving kinship ties with the presiden- (such as the secret deportation of Kyr- tial family of Nazarbaevs in 1998-2001 gyz citizens in 2002, accompanied by and the privileged role of Adil Toigo- unlawful intrusion into Kyrgyz territory, nbaev, the Kazakh son-in-law of the as well as the scandal around the con- Akaevs, in Kyrgyz business until 2005) frontation of the Kyrgyz and Kazakh already caused many fears among the wholesale markets Dordoi and Barys), 1Anders Oslund, Kyrgyz Republic: Towards Economic Growth through Expansion of Export, UNDP report (March 25, 2002) avail- able at http://www.undp.kg/russian/publications.phtml?l=1&id=39 -3- 2 № Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan: how to build new relations with an old friend the new authorities of Kyrgyzstan may tions (Alians Kapital), industry (Kad- in the future fi nd themselves hostage to amjai antimony combine, Kant slate a diplomatic position that is too submis- and cement combine, and many indus- sive. trial enterprises in the Chuy region), In economic dimensions, Kyrgyzstan media business (NBT TV station) and would hope to be more successful in tourism (mainly in Issykkul). KYRGYZSTAN BRIEF KYRGYZSTAN benefi ting from the positive
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