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Local Elections 2015: Preview East

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Local Elections 2015: Preview East Local Elections 2015: Preview East Midlands ……………………………………………………………………………............................. Summary There are 36 authorities in the East Midlands holding local elections this elections and was within one seat of the Conservatives before two year. members resigned from the Party. Labour currently have outright majorities on 12 Councils, and look set to Labour will look to build on its success in 2011 and gain the two seats retain control of them all. They have a realistic chance of gaining a further needed to take South Derbyshire from the Conservatives in May. four authorities in May. The Conservatives hold 16 Councils at present. Whilst they should hold on Authorities to watch: to their majority on most, Erewash and South Derbyshire are possible gains for Labour. Erewash, High Peak, Mansfield, South Derbyshire The Liberal Democrats will expect to retain control of Hinckley & Bosworth and Oadby & Wigston. Despite holding the majority of seats in Mansfield, Labour has been unable to control the authority since Independent Mayor, Tony Egginton was elected in 2002. Prior to that Labour had led the Council for 30 years. Mayor, Tony Egginton is not defending his seat in May. At the last Mayoral election, Labour lost by just 67 votes. Labour are in a good position to take back control of the authority. In High Peak, Labour has taken seats from the Conservatives and Lib Dems over recent elections and they need to gain a further three seats to take overall control of the Council. Labour will be focusing on a number of Con/Lab marginal seats in May to win an outright majority in Erewash. The Party did well in the 2011 local Amber Valley Council Current political composition (Elections by thirds) Our prediction Leader Amber Valley will be a closely fought election this year and the Cllr Paul Jones (Lab) Conservatives need to win just one seat from Labour to take an outright Last election majority in May. However, Labour has been steadily gaining seats over Conservative 22 2014 the last three local elections and so they should be able to hold on to the Council. Labour, 23 Total seats 45 Labour hold Seats contested 15 Background & Analysis The Amber Valley has an increasingly diverse economy and is one of the most populated non-city districts in the East Midlands. The key towns in the district are all priorities for regeneration and include of Alfreton, Belper, Heanor and Ripley. Labour currently control the Council with a slim majority of just one seat. Labour took control of Amber Valley Council from the Conservatives at the 2014 local elections, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. Labour had taken small numbers of seats from the Conservatives at the 2011 and 2012 local elections, reducing the Conservative majority to just three seats going into last year’s elections. 2 Ashfield Council Current political composition (All-out elections) However in 2009, Zadrozny was ousted and Labour formed a minority Leader Independent administration with the support of some of the Independents. Cllr Chris Baron (Lab) 3 Liberal Last election May 2011 saw Labour take 15 seats from the Lib Dems (-7), Conservatives Democrat 6 2011 (-1) and Independents (-7) to take back overall control of the Council. Total seats Our prediction 35 (33 previously) Labour will retain its majority of Ashfield. Boundary changes here see an Seats contested increase in the number of seats being contested. It will be interesting to Labour 24 35 see what, if any, impact this has on the make-up of the authority. Labour hold Background & Analysis To the south-west of Mansfield, Ashfield district includes the towns of Kirkby in Ashfield, Hucknall and Sutton-in-Ashfield. The Council is currently controlled by Labour. The Party won an outright majority at the last local elections in 2011. Historically Labour territory, where the Party held 31 out of 33 seats in 1999, the Council fell to No Overall Control in 2003, losing 15 seats to Independents. At the 2007 local elections, the Liberal Democrats won eight seats taking the Party from one seat prior to the elections, to nine. The Liberal Democrats managed to form a minority administration and ran the Council with Jason Zadrozny as Leader. 3 Bassetlaw District Council Current political composition (Elections by thirds) Our prediction Leader Independent It is likely Labour will retain their majority in Bassetlaw, but they will be Vacancy 1 Cllr Simon Greaves 4 wary of UKIP. Although the Party made no gains in last year’s election, (Lab) Conservative UKIP candidates came second in 12 wards, nine of which were Labour- 10 Last election held. 2014 Labour hold Total seats 48 Labour 33 Seats contested 16 Background & Analysis Bassetlaw district in north Nottinghamshire includes the towns of Worksop and Retford. Labour currently control the Council with a comfortable majority. The Party secured an outright majority from No Overall Control in 2011. Labour retained their hold of the authority at the last elections in 2014 and gained one seat from the Conservatives. Since the elections last year, one Labour member switched to Independent and there is one vacancy. 4 Blaby District Council Current political composition (All-out elections) Two Conservatives from the same ward (a husband and wife team) Leader UKIP 2 defected to UKIP in 2012, however any UKIP ‘surge’ does not look set to Liberal Labour 6 Cllr Ernie White be a major issue for the leading party here. Democrat 5 (Con) Last election Our prediction 2011 The Conservatives will hold the Council. Total seats Conservative hold 39 Seats contested Conservative 26 39 Background & Analysis To the south-west of Leicester, Blaby district covers the towns of Blaby, Whetstone and Enderby. The authority has been controlled the Conservatives since the Council’s creation. In the most recent local elections, the Liberal Democrats have lost a number of seats, whilst the Conservatives and Labour have made small gains. Council Leader Ernie White, is not defending his seat and will be replaced by Councillor Terry Richardson in May. Councillor White has been Leader since 2003 and is standing down to concentrate on his responsibilities in adult social care on Leicestershire County Council. 5 Bolsover District Council Current political composition (All-out elections) Leader Residents Independent Association Cllr Eion Watts OBE 2 3 (Lab) Last election 2011 Total seats 37 Seats contested Labour 32 37 Background & Analysis Bolsover has been Labour territory since its creation and is set to remain so. Our prediction The Labour Party should comfortably retain their control of the Council in May. Labour hold 6 Boston Borough Council Current political composition (All-out elections) the group lost 14 seats at the local elections in 2011. The Conservatives Leader were the main beneficiaries, gaining 12 seats to take the majority for the Independent Lincolnshire Cllr Peter Bedford English Democrat 1 first time in the Council’s history. Group 4 Independents 2 (Con) Labour 3 Last elections Our prediction 2011 Boundary changes will come into force here in May. This will reduce the number of seats to 30, which could have a real impact on whether the Total seats No political Conservatives can secure a working majority. affiliation 2 30 (32 previously) Conservative Seats contested NOC hold Independent 16 30 4 Background & Analysis The Conservatives hold exactly half the seats on Boston Council and control the authority with a minority administration. The authority had rarely seen one single party take outright majority until the Conservatives did at the last local elections in 2011. Since then however, they have lost the majority following a by-election, which returned an Independent. Two members also left the Conservatives, one became an Independent and one switched to English Democrat. The only other time that one group has taken the majority was in 2007 when extraordinarily, the Boston By-Pass Independents were elected to take charge of the Council. In 2011, the group changed its name to the Boston District Independents in a bid to rid them of the reputation of being a single-issue party. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the re-brand failed and 7 Broxtowe Borough Council Current political composition (All-out elections) started to criticise the Council’s Green Belt boundary review. The last Leader elections in 2011, took place at a time when the Liberal Democrats were Liberal Cllr Milan Radulovic Democrat 9 at a low-ebb nationally. There has been a modicum of recovery in their (Lab) Labour 17 support and we would expect to see them win back a few seats at the Last elections likely expense of Labour. 2011 Our prediction Total seats Looking at the current political situation, it is feasible that there could be 44 a Conservative led Council post-election. Either outright with a slim Conservative Seats contested majority or in coalition, probably with the Lib Dems. The UKIP ‘factor’ may 18 44 also be felt, but this could impact the Labour vote as much as the Conservatives here. Background & Analysis In Nottinghamshire, Broxtowe includes the towns and villages of Stapleford, Trowell and Brinsley. NOC hold Broxtowe has been under No Overall Control since 2003 and whilst the controlling Lab/Lib Dem coalition has been together for a number of years, all seats are up for election in May. The Conservatives and Labour will hope to take outright majority. It remains to be seen whether any single party can secure a big majority. The Council’s Local Plan and protection of the Green Belt will be key election issues and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have already 8 Chesterfield Council Corby Borough Council Current political composition Current political composition (All-out elections) (All-out elections) Leader Leader Liberal UKIP 2 Cllr John Cllr Thomas Beattie Conservative Democrat 2 Liberal Burrows (Lab) 4 (Lab) Democrat 12 Last elections Last elections 2011 2011 Total seats Total seats 48 29 Labour 34 Seats Labour 23 Seats contested contested 29 48 Background & Analysis Background & Analysis Labour hold a strong majority here and this looks set to continue as the Labour currently controls Chesterfield Council.
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