Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, January 28

Headlines:  UN’s Ban Rejects Netanyahu’s Criticism: Count On Me to Speak  Abbas: Israeli Policies Will Lead ISIS into the Heart of Israel  Israel Reluctant to Accuse ISIS Over Bar Shootings Despite Hallmarks  Netanyahu’s Race Baiting Was Planned, Not a ‘Lapse in Judgment’  Israeli MK: The Knesset Is Abandoning Israeli Lives  Fatal Tunnel Collapse Indicates Hamas Preparing Offensive Capabilities  Russian Special Forces, Hezbollah Helping Assad Reclaim Land  Gas Pipeline Focus of ‘Historic’ Talks Between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Leftists Crushed, Israel’s Right-Wing Starts Gnawing on Itself”  By Asher Schechter, Author and Journalist, Ha’aretz  Al-Monitor: “Why IDF Favors Carrots, Not Sticks for West Bank Palestinians”  By Ben Caspit, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts January 28, 2016

Ha’aretz UN's Ban Rejects Netanyahu's Criticism: Count On Me to Speak The United Nations says Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stands by every word of his criticism of Israeli settlement-building this week and rejects Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's comment that the remarks justify terrorism. The UN chief on Tuesday told the Security Council that settlement activities are "an affront to the Palestinian people," and he called for Israel to freeze them. He also said "it is human nature to react to occupation." See also, “Israel Feels the Heat of the US, EU, and UN Criticism” (Reuters) See also, "UN Chief Redoubles Criticism of Israel’s 'Stifling’ Occupation" (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post Abbas: Israeli Policies Will Lead ISIS into the Heart of Israel Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday called on the UN Security Council to issue a resolution that condemns West Bank settlements and provides Palestinians with international protection from Israel. “The current Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, which includes seven settlers, does not want peace or the implementation of signed agreements with the Palestinians,” Abbas charged. “There is a conviction that the Israeli government won’t halt settlement construction. They have more than half a million settlers in the Palestinian territories.” Abbas reiterated his support for countries that fight terrorism. He expressed fear that the policies of the Israeli government “would lead to the entry of Daesh [ISIS] into the heart of Israel.”

Reuters Israel Reluctant to Accuse ISIS Over Shooting Despite Hallmarks It appeared to have hallmarks of the first Islamic State attack in Israel: A Muslim citizen opened fire on a Tel Aviv bar days after the militant group threatened the country, and left behind a black ISIS banner. But security officials, given pause by the erratic conduct of the slain gunman and wary of aggravating strains with Israel's largely quiescent Arab minority, are steering clear of definitively linking him with Islamic State. "This really was not a classic ISIS terrorist attack," a security official told Reuters on Thursday after the Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency and Justice Ministry issued their findings on the Jan. 1 shooting rampage by Nashat Melhem.

+972 Magazine Netanyahu's Race Baiting Long Planned, Not Lapse in Judgment Controversial comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about heavy voter turnout in Israel’s Arab sector were not one-time mistakes but part of a broader strategy executed by the Likud campaign, a report broadcast Monday by Israel’s Channel 2 News demonstrated. Netanyahu was heavily criticized, at home and abroad, for his last-minute plea for right-wing voters to support him at the polls in order to block Arab electoral strength. “Arab voters are coming out in droves to the polls,” Netanyahu declared in a video message broadcast on Facebook. “Left-wing organizations are busing them out.” 2

Arutz Sheva Israeli MK: The Knesset Is Abandoning Israeli Lives MK Shuli Mualem-Refaeli (Habayit Hayehudi) spoke about the pain she and the rest of Israel feel regarding the current security crisis. She particularly noted the lack of security felt throughout the country. "We cannot continue to present all of these terrorists as individual operators. The feeling has become that terrorists are taking their attacks to a new level, and we are not rising to the occasions. Two innocent women were murdered in their own homes within a week…It is not conceivable that there is widespread continuous incitement and constant murders, and then people come and try to explain to us that we are flattening the terrorists. Currently the only thing being flattened out are the lives of Israeli citizens. We are the lowest on the food chain. Having the lives of even some of the citizens of Israel being abandoned is something that we cannot allow to pass."

Ha’aretz Fatal Tunnel Collapse Indicates Hamas Preparing Offensive Eight Hamas militants were missing after a tunnel collapse in the northern Gaza Strip. The reports, indicating the group is working on rehabilitating its array of tunnels reaching into Israeli territory, were confirmed by Hamas' military wing, which said that it has lost contact with a unit of tunnel fighters after a collapse caused by inclement weather. Hamas is still searching for survivors. Israel estimates that Hamas is investing efforts in restoring its military capability by building tunnels leading into Israeli territory and renewing its inventory of rockets, among other things. See also, “At Least Seven Hamas Activists Killed Digging Gaza Tunnel” (BICOM)

Algemeiner Russian Special Forces, Hezbollah Helping Assad Reclaim Land Russian special forces backed by Hezbollah have been helping Syrian President Bashar Assad’s troops reclaim territory in the mountains and towns of coastal Latakia in Syria, Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai reported on Wednesday. According to sources in a “joint operations room” in Damascus, coordinating between Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah, Russian artillery — “through intensive use of batteries and howitzers” — backed by elite Hezbollah forces and the Russian air force, have been fighting some of the fiercest battles in Latakia. The Russian artillery has allowed Assad’s troops and Hezbollah to advance through various towns, villages and areas “without confrontation.”

Jerusalem Post Gas Pipeline Focus of ‘Historic’ Talks for Israel, Greece, Cyprus Israel, Cyprus and Greece decided at their first ever tripartite meeting to set up a steering committee to look into laying a gas pipeline from Israel to Cyprus, and then to Greece for further export to Europe. The decision was announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, standing next to Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Each leader delivered a statement noting the historic nature of the meeting, and highlighting the possibilities this emerging alliance has for the region. They did not answer any questions from the press. See also, “Israel, Cyprus, and Greece Forge Ahead with European Gas Pipeline” (Arutz Sheva)

Ha’aretz – January 28, 2016 Leftist Crushed, Israel’s Right-Wing Starts Gnawing on Itself

Israel's right wing is safe in power, so why are its members savaging each other - and democracy - in a mad race to the bottom?

By Asher Schechter  Israel’s right wing should be riding high right now.  Its grip on power is safer than ever. Following weeks of terror attacks and radical incitement, and in the midst of a crackdown on human rights organizations like B'Tselem, whatever support remained for the dwindling Israeli left has been all but extinguished. Even former self- proclaimed leaders of the liberal camp, like Isaac Herzog, are doing all they can to distance themselves from association with the word “left.”  With the left delegitimized, the right is finally free to do whatever it wishes: to rewrite school books in order to inject them with “Jewish identity,” ban works of fiction that “promote miscegenation,” or simply mark human rights activists with “leftie badges.” They know that the opposition won't squeak, the U.S. will not punish them (worst case scenario, those “Jew boys” will say something kind-of-harsh, and Europeans will condemn but remain ineffectual.  So why, oh why, are right-wing politicians fighting amongst themselves?  It started with Naftali Bennett, minister of education and leader of Habayit Hayehudi, who last week accused Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon of being shortsighted. Addressing the Institute for National Security Studies, Bennett launched a biting attack on Netanyahu’s and Ya’alon’s leadership qualities, describing the two as soft on terror. “The main threat to Israel’s security isn't coming from the north or the south, not from Hamas or Hezbollah rockets, or even Iran," Bennett said. "The main threat we have to face is not diplomatic stagnation, but stagnated thinking.”  Ever the alphas, Netanyahu and Ya’alon mocked Bennett’s attack. The prime minister's cronies reportedly disparaged Bennett as an “internet commenter.” Ya’alon called him “childish” and implied that Bennett plagiarized his points of criticism from other cabinet members: Netanyahu and himself.  But Bennett wasn’t the only one attacking the government from the right. Gideon Sa'ar, a former high-ranking Likud minister and potential Netanyahu rival, also used the INSS event to attack the government, accusing Netanyahu of “losing Jerusalem.” Earlier this week, right- wing coalition MKs rebelled threatened to boycott the vote on the NGO "transparency law" (which would impose new regulations on NGOs funded mainly by foreign governments) to protest the eviction of settler homes in Hebron. (The vote was ultimately postponed for unrelated reasons).  It is true that infighting on the right is nothing new. Right-wing ministers like Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked have been accusing their own government of being too soft on terror for years, reflecting the right wing’s apparent uneasiness with its status as undisputed ruler.

 But in recent months, the right wing’s usual bickering has escalated to the disturbing dimensions of a Zionist rooster fight, in which each politician tries to one up the other by becoming even more radical. The victim of this one-upmanship is Israeli democracy.  The anti-democratic arms race  So is Israel’s right-wing rule coming apart at the seams? No. It’s just that right wing politicians are losing the race. The race against who? Against themselves, of course. Let’s call it the race to the bottom right.  Ever since Netanyahu was re-elected in March on the back of his incitement against Israel’s Arab citizens, right-wing politicians seem to be competing in an anti-democratic arms race.  It’s not like the right wing held itself back before. But the floodgates have been opened wide, with new radical statements and controversial bills almost every day.  You’d expect right-wing politicians to be overjoyed with this newfound freedom. In fact, they’re miserable.  After all, who do you fight once your camp is the only one left standing? How do you stand out?  This angst has led to a rapid succession of incitement against minorities and leftists, and anti- democratic legislation, with right wing politicians constantly radicalizing their language in order to one-up their peers. This is part of the reason why they sound so much like Donald Trump these days. Like the Donald, they too have to resort to outlandish tactics that rely on ignorance and rage in order to differentiate themselves in a market oversaturated with other right-wing loons.  It is easy to see where this process is leading. The race to bottom right will continue, ad absurdum, until there is nothing left that resembles a democratic state, or even a semi- functioning one - only a clownocracy, where incitement is confused with action and reflex is confused with strategy.  In fact, we have already reached the point of absurdity, and are now seeing it through the rearview mirror. Don’t believe it? Take a look at what happened this week, when the Knesset approved a first reading of Likud MK Oren Hazan’s bill to officially call the state of Israel… the State of Israel. Hazan explained that the bill is meant to prevent someone from, God forbid, referring to Israel as “Palestine.”  Israel, people. Remember the name. If the people entrusted with it are any indication, it may not be around for very long. Asher Schechter is a journalist and a writer, currently working as a senior features writer at Ha’aretz and as host of The Cost of Doing Business, a twice-weekly show about Israeli economics. A journalist for nearly 10 years, he has covered subjects as varied as art, foreign affairs, global business, macro- economics, technology, social protest movements and the intersection between traditional media, politics and digital culture. He is also the author of Rothschild: The Story of a Protest Movement.

Al-Monitor – January 27, 2016 Why IDF Favors Carrots, Not Sticks West Bank Palestinians By Ben Caspit  Ostensibly, the statement released by the Shin Bet regarding the investigation findings of the Palestinian minor who killed Dafna Meir in the Otniel settlement on Jan. 17 was a standard one. The 15-year-old terrorist from the village of Beit Amra close to Hebron was apprehended the day after the killing at his home in the village. He succeeded in infiltrating Otniel and escaping without interference; the Shin Bet got to him within 24 hours.  What was unusual this time, was that the Shin Bet released details about what triggered the Palestinian youth to perpetrate the attack. "The interrogation by the Shin Bet revealed that prior to the deadly attack, the minor had watched Palestinian TV broadcasts that portrayed Israel as the ‘killer of Palestinian youths.’ In addition, the interrogation revealed that on the day of the assault, and under the influence of the contents to which he had been exposed on Palestinian TV, the minor decided to carry out a stabbing attack with the goal of killing a Jew. In light of the proximity of the Otniel settlement to his residence, the minor decided to carry out the terror attack in Otniel."  This was, seemingly, a routine announcement. But in actuality, every word in the statement was carefully crafted. The statement emphasized and repeated the fact that the boy had been incited by Palestinian TV to kill Jews.  On Jan. 20, the Israeli media had publicized data about a study conducted by experts from the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT). According to this study, incitement is not the main impetus that causes young Palestinians to kill Jews and lose their own lives in the process. The COGAT study exhibits data that is far more nuanced, with numerous characteristics and variables that point to a picture that is far less definitive than the one portrayed by the Shin Bet. It has emerged that not all the terrorists watch Palestinian TV. In general, the official Palestinian TV stations have low ratings, with almost no youths watching. Instead, Palestinian youths are mainly active on social networking sites. They often carry out assaults to avenge the death of a family member or friend, while at other times they are in the throes of a psychological crisis. (For example, on Jan. 23, a 13-year-old Palestinian girl who had an argument with her family took a knife and attacked an Israeli security guard in the Anatot settlement as a way of committing suicide.) At other times, the lone wolves are egged on by an external event or they are seized by a sudden rage that causes them to do something that will evidently lead to their deaths.  Behind the scenes, a difficult confrontation is being waged within the Israeli security system in regard to how the current terror wave should be fought and what causes its eruption. Meanwhile, the terror attacks have been ongoing since Oct. 1.  While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and almost all his ministers and spokespeople hurl scathing accusations at the Palestinian Authority (PA) and President Mahmoud Abbas for the continued incitement broadcasts of the Palestinian media outlets, there are also other voices in the security system. These other views are personified and espoused by Maj. Gen. Yoav “Poli” Mordechai, coordinator of COGAT, and his people.

 The Shin Bet and COGAT approach the same issue from different perspectives: The Shin Bet examines the events from what is called in Israel “the thwarting perspective” — a narrow, subjective and localized view that only focuses on preventing the next terror attack, and nothing else. Those at COGAT, on the other hand, attempt to decipher Palestinian society to understand the prevailing state of mind, the deeper currents, the youth and the trends that ultimately determine the way in which the Palestinian winds are blowing.  The COGAT findings are not always compatible with those of the Shin Bet. While COGAT preaches that Israel should continue to allow entry to as many Palestinian workers as possible, the Shin Bet cautions against this openness and prefers to limit entry. At this stage, the opinion of Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot is closer to those of COGAT than those of the Shin Bet. Eizenkot uses every opportunity to warn about the potential security deterioration in Judea and Samaria and that it is vital to continue to operate with great restraint, using the carrot (as opposed to the stick): the continued employment of 120,000 Palestinian workers in Israel and the settlements, continued security coordination with the PA security apparatuses and continued economic cooperation, including as many incentives as possible to the Palestinian economy.  At this point, these two different approaches are clashing on the highest Israeli levels. The terror continues unabated; last week on different occasions young Palestinian terrorists infiltrated three settlements (Otniel, Tekoa and Beit Horon) and succeeded in killing two women and wounding others. The Israeli security top brass are at a loss.  Netanyahu finds himself in a Catch-22 situation. Israel’s “Mr. Security” is currently unable to restore a semblance of security to the streets in general, but especially not to the Judea and Samaria settlements where part of his constituency is concentrated. In his frustration, Netanyahu vents his anger on the PA and on anyone else who gets in his way. The last one to be on the receiving end of his ire was UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon who said Jan. 26 in regard to Palestinian terror, “It is human nature [for oppressed peoples] to react to occupation.” Netanyahu subsequently slammed the secretary-general's statement and said it encourages terror.  Many Israeli security officials view Netanyahu’s criticism against the PA as irrelevant and unjustified. “First, there has been a noticeable decrease in the incitement levels of the official Palestinian media outlets,” a high-placed security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity last week. “Second, security coordination has improved a great deal, and the Palestinians are working indefatigably to thwart terror attacks.”  Quite a number of Israeli security officials say, in private conversations and only on condition of anonymity, that the repeated attacks of Israel’s diplomatic top brass on Abbas and the PA is a terrible mistake. “The PA is under tremendous pressure,” an Israeli security source told Al- Monitor, “but Israel must do everything to allow Abbas to survive. The alternative is worse by far. He [Abbas] is committed to the war on terror, and that’s the important thing. We cannot expect him to condemn the attacks in the current terror wave that is backed by the entire Palestinian people, without exception. He can’t go against his people. We must understand his limitations.”

 At this stage, Eizenkot and Defense Minister Moshe “Bogie” Ya'alon are succeeding in maintaining stability and averting the attempts of the Israeli far-right, mainly the HaBayit HaYehudi faction, from intensifying punitive steps in the territories that could lead to a further deterioration of the situation. The problem is that this situation is temporary; continued terror strengthens the forces that push for harsher punitive measures, which in turn are likely to cause an escalation of the situation, and even loss of control. Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers, and has a daily radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel.