Israel’s Knesset Election, 2019 Jatin Kumar On April 9, 2019, Israel voted to elect the family. It has been argued that the twenty-first Knesset. The elections were government wanted elections “before the held at a time when Israel is engaged in attorney general decides whether to violent confrontations with the follow police recommendations to indict Palestinians on the Gaza Strip and with him.” Iran in Syria. Since March 2018, clashes Pre-Election Developments between Palestinians and IDF troops have increased and took a serious turn in Israel follows multi-party proportional October-November. Amidst the representational electoral system. The worsening situation, Egypt, Qatar and formation and disbanding of new parties the UN helped negotiate a ceasefire is common during election season. agreement between Israel and Hamas in Political realignments and formation of November. Unhappy with this new parties began from the day Knesset development, Israeli Defence Minister elections were announced. On December Avigdor Lieberman had resigned from 29, 2018, Naftali Bennett, Ayelet Shaked, his post accusing the Benjamin and Shuli Mualem made it clear that they Netanyahu government of “surrendering will depart from the Jewish Home Party to terror.” The decision significantly and form a new party called the New weakened the coalition government led Right. Orly Levi, who had resigned from by Netanyahu, who was left with only 61 the Yisrael Beiteinu in 2016, announced members in 120-seat Knesset. An attack the formation of a new party Gesher. on December 9, outside the Ofra Former IDF Chief of Staff, Benny Gantz, settlement in the West Bank, in which formed the Israeli Resilience Party on seven Israelis were injured, including a December 27. Similarly, Brigadier seven-month pregnant woman, landed General (Retd.) Gal Hirsch launched the the government further in a spot. Shield of Israel and Gad Haran and Motti Continued dissatisfaction on several Ashkenazi formed the Social Justice issues, including compulsory Party. conscription for the ultraorthodox The emergence of these of new parties Haredi community, weakened the vying for the votes of a diverse electorate coalition government and the prime had made it difficult for established minister decided to prepone the parties to maintain their dominance. elections, which were due in November Netanyahu, who has been the second- 2019. Several analysts believed that the longest serving prime minister of Israel decision was based on calculations of the after the founding premier David Ben- corruption investigations against the Gurion was significantly challenged due prime minister and members of his to the increased appeal of the smaller 9 parties. The merger between the centrist, key opponent in the elections. Pre- Israeli Resilience Party and Yair Lapid’s election opinion polls showed that the Yesh Atid created a new bloc (Blue and Blue and White bloc could give a tough White) that challenged the Likud’s fight to Likud by securing 31-33 seats dominance. More importantly, while Likud might remain confined to corruption cases against Netanyahu and 28-33 seats. Clearly, the small parties his family emerged as a major talking were considered to play a vital role in point. Netanyahu faces charges in three government formation. Smaller parties, cases and the Israeli Attorney-General such as the Kulanu, Shas, Meretz, United has said that he intends to charge Torah Judaism, Parties of Joint List and Netanyahu with bribery, fraud and Arab Parties, were seen as likely to breach of trust in all three cases. If emerge as significant players in deciding convicted, he will be imprisoned for up to the next government. 10 years on charges of bribery and up to Election Results three years for fraud and breach of trust. The election results were more or less Prior to elections, it seemed that close to the projections made by pre- Netanyahu might not find it easy to election surveys. The turnout in the convince the right-wing conservative elections was 68.41 per cent. Likud parties to support a Likud-led emerged the largest party securing 36 government since they are unhappy with seats, while, the newly formed Blue and the government for several reasons, White bloc secured 35 seats. Since the including the proposal for compulsory two major parties won more than half the conscription for ultra-orthodox Haredi seats, many smaller parties saw a drop in community. Additionally, the decision of their fortunes. Shas and United Torah going for a ceasefire with Hamas created Judaism secured 8 seats each, while distrust among the hard line nationalist Hadash-Ta’al and Labour won 6 seats electorate. In such a situation, convincing each, Yisrael Beiteinu and United Right smaller parties which have a significant secured 5 seats each and Meretz, Kulanu support-base to join the coalition and Ra'am–Balad won 4 seats each. government, seemed little difficult challenge for Netanyahu. Netanyahu needs support of 61 MKs to form government. There are less Opinion Poll Predictions possibility of unity government, as it has Since the day the Knesset elections were been ruled out by the Blue and White announced, the popularity of individual bloc. Under such circumstances, Likud is candidates had seen ups and downs. left with the only option of forming a Despite corruption charges, monthly coalition government with the right and surveys project Netanyahu’s Likud Party ultra-Orthodox parties. Avigdor being ahead of others. However, the Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu), who was a rapid rise in Gantz’s popularity since the key player in weakening the Netanyahu’s formation of the Blue and White bloc, previous government, has said that he was notable. Many media polls projected can join a government led by Netanyahu that Gantz would emerge as Netanyahu’s with some compromises. It is expected 10 that President Reuven Rivlin will invite Netanyahu to form the next government. Once Rivlin declares his decision, Netanyahu will be having 28 days to form a coalition government. Though Netanyahu has won the elections, the looming threat of conviction in corruption charges poses a challenge to retain his pole position in Israeli politics. (Jatin Kumar is Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, IDSA) 11 .