Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, November 2

Headlines:  Abbas: ‘Peace, A Strategic Goal’ of Palestinians  Transport Minister Planning Trains from Jerusalem to WB Settlements  State Comptroller Warns Israel Unprepared for Cyber Attacks  Palestinian Forces Raid Home of PA Policeman Before Attack, Brother Says  Israeli Settlement Ariel Expands onto Suspected Private Palestinian Land  New Amona Law Gains Backing in Coalition  Coalition Tensions Increase Over Israel Broadcasting Authority  After Aoun Deal, Lebanon’s Two Major Parties Back Hariri for PM

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Obama: Last Chance to Rectify Your Peacemaking Failures”  By Dr. Yossi Beilin, Former Israeli Minister of Justice who initiated the Oslo Accords  Al-Monitor: “How Netanyahu Is Keeping Secret His Move to Help Palestinians”  By Shlomi Eldar, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts November 2, 2016

Times of Israel Abbas: ‘Peace, A Strategic Goal’ of Palestinians Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said on Monday that peace is a strategic goal of the Palestinians, who are committed to a two-state solution. Abbas was speaking in the West Bank town of Bethlehem where he was meeting visiting Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who has also met with Israeli leaders and paid his respects at the grave of Shimon Peres. “We reiterate here that peace is our strategic goal and is in the interest of all parties,” Abbas said at a joint press conference, according to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa. “The key to peace is in ending the Israeli occupation and in lifting the injustice faced by our people so that the two states, Palestine and Israel, can live in security, stability, peace and good neighborly relations,” he added.

Mako Transport Minister Plans Trains from J’lem to WB Settlements Transport Minister Yisrael Katz has approved a plan that will connect Jerusalem to several settlements around the city by means of a light rail network. The new network of light rail lines that Katz approved will complement the one operating within Jerusalem, and will connect several settlements that are beyond the Green Line to the city. See also, “Transport Minister Plans Trains to West Bank Settlements” (Times of Israel)

BICOM State Comptroller Warns Israel Unprepared for Cyber Attacks Israel’s State Comptroller yesterday published sections of his annual report that criticises the government and public bodies in a wide range of policy areas. State Comptroller Yosef Shapira said Israel is vulnerable to cyber attacks in the civilian sector, with critical infrastructure at risk. Much of his criticism has focused on the slow pace at which responsibilities for cyber security had been divided between the Shin Bet, the National Cyber Bureau and the National Cyber Security Authority, despite several cabinet decisions delineating their roles. According to Shapira, the National Cyber Bureau and National Cyber Security Authority have been slow to protect factories and key companies under their purview. See also, “Israel Unprepared for 'Dramatic Uptick' in Cyber Attacks” (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Palestinian Forces Raid Home of PA Policeman Before Attack The PA attempted to arrest the Palestinian who carried out a shooting attack against soldiers near Beit El on Monday, a family member said. “The security forces came to our home about an hour before he carried out the operation and confiscated weapons,” a brother of Muhammad Turkman, 25, who asked to remain unnamed, told The Jerusalem Post. “They then said they would arrest Muhammad, but as you know, they did not reach him in time.” Turkman opened fire on soldiers stationed at the Focus Checkpoint on Monday, wounding three soldiers, one of them seriously. See also, “Fatah Honors PA Policeman for Attack Near Beit El” (Arutz Sheva) 2

Ha’aretz Israeli Settlement Ariel Expands onto Private Palestinian Land Sixteen buildings have gone up recently in the settlement of Ariel on territory not categorized as state land. The Civil Administration deliberately omitted the area from state-owned territory, which means construction is not permitted there. Aerial photographs show that 10 of these buildings are completely beyond the "blue line" designation for state land, and six others are partially beyond the line. The so-called Blue Line team (also called Team for the Demarcation of State Lands) is responsible for outlining the boundaries of state land, which Israel can build on relatively freely, as opposed to private land or land suspected to be privately owned, on which settlements may not be built.

BICOM Coalition Tensions Increase Over Israel Broadcasting Authority Tensions between Israel’s Prime Minister and several of his coalition partners are growing over the future of Israel’s public broadcaster ahead of a cabinet vote on Sunday. A bill proposed by Likud MK David Bitan, with the full support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to prevent the launch of the Israel Broadcasting Corporation (IBC) is set to be discussed today by the Knesset’s Economics Committee. The IBC is a new public broadcasting body, due to launch in January. The bill is opposed by some of Netanyahu’s coalition partners. See also, “Struggle Over Fate of Israeli Public Broadcaster Sparks Uproar” (Bloomberg)

Arutz Sheva New Amona Law Gains Backing in Coalition Members of the Likud and Jewish Home parties are pushing for a new piece of legislation crafted to normalize Jewish communities over the Green Line and end the threat of legal claims on their land by non-citizens posing as absentee landowners. Legislators backing the bill hope to bring it to a Knesset vote by next week. The new proposal boasts the support of Jewish Home MKs Bezalel Smotrich and Shuli Mualem, as well as Likud MKs David Bittan and Yoav Kish. Both the Likud and Jewish Home parties are reportedly prepared to back the bill. According to Channel 2, the four sponsors of the bill wrote that the purpose of the law is to allow for the normalization of communities across Judea and Samaria which were built or expanded without a formal planning process, noting that often times the government was involved in such projects.

Times of Israel After Aoun Deal, Lebanon’s 2 Major Parties Back Hariri for PM Lebanon’s two major parliamentary blocs on Tuesday named Saad Hariri, a former prime minister and a Sunni leader, as their candidate for premier in the government to be formed after a new president was elected. The widely expected endorsement by the Future bloc, led by Hariri, and the majority Christian bloc comes a day after Michel Aoun was elected president. Hariri was promised the post in exchange for backing Aoun’s presidential bid in parliament, ending a two-and-half-year deadlock that left Lebanon without a president. See also, “Israel Cautious About New Lebanese President” (Jerusalem Post)

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Ha’aretz – October 30, 2016 Obama: Last Chance to Rectify Your Peacemaking Failures

The election-inauguration window only happens once for every president. Reagan used it to recognize the PLO in 1988, and Clinton for his parameters for peace in 2000. Will Obama follow suit?

By Yossi Beilin  It is no secret that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is seriously concerned that President Obama may make a "bold" step to jumpstart the non-existent Israeli-Palestinian peace process in the twilight of his administration, after the November 8 elections and the January 20 inauguration.  This "no strings attached" window of opportunity has been used before: by the Reagan administration to recognize the PLO in 1988, and by the Clinton administration to issue the "Clinton Parameters" for peace in December 2000. Both moves were harshly rejected by the Israeli right.  Will Obama follow these precedents? He has given out conflicting signals. If the U.S. were to decide not to veto a UN Security Council resolution against continued settlement building, that may be positive in itself, but it isn’t enough to stop this dangerous process. Another UN resolution initiated by European or Arab states that could refer to an outline permanent solution but does not add new elements would be even more redundant, especially when we know that Netanyahu is not ready to pay the already known price of a permanent agreement.  Even a presidential speech that demarcated a similar outline end of conflict settlement would not have the power to not change the situation for the better. It would also not help a potential Clinton administration while its future policy is still being formulated on the Middle East.  The best options for a last-minute Obama intervention require a stepping up of the rhetoric and intentions. That would mean a UN resolution directly initiated by the U.S., or a policy speech that packed its punches rather than go over old ground.  Either Obama-led initiative, to make a real difference, must include these three critical points: 1. It would call upon both Israel and the Palestinians to immediately begin the negotiation on provisional borders for a sovereign Palestinian state. This would fulfill both parties’ commitment to the 2003 Road Map to Peace (initially a Quartet initiative, later adopted by the UNSC). Negotiation should be capped at a few months. This should lead to a significant expansion of the currently small geographic area controlled by the Palestinian Authority. It should lead to security arrangements between Israel and a Palestinian non-militarized state, which would keep its own domestic security forces to ensure law and order. 2. A general reference to a permanent solution. This would include an update of the Clinton Parameters, and of the informal Israeli-Palestinian "Geneva Initiative" of 2003. Obama should consider a permanent solution that offers new elements in a script that’s already been known for so long.

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Personally, I believe this should build a two-state vision that exists within the context of a confederation. Both sides must agree on the territorial extent and depth of their cooperation; the borders between them will, gradually, become permeable. This confederation strategy would have the distinct advantage of increasing the feasibility of brokering a settlement answering the issues over which both Israeli and Palestinian leaderships are unwilling to compromise, not least the future of Israeli settlements, the Palestinian refugee problem and security arrangements in the region. 3. A timetable for signing the permanent agreement and for its implementation. Netanyahu doesn’t want an arbitrary date to be set, which would enforce a solution even if the situation on the ground is very dangerous. One reading of his position is that he would consider getting to an agreement only if the situation on the ground is satisfactory, in his judgment, if he would consider that at all. Mahmoud Abbas could never accept this stance: the Palestinian president would require a fixed date (two or three years from the beginning of the talks between the two governments). Obama should suggest a proposal that include a fixed date for the end of negotiations, but also an option for a delay which would only be triggered in an extreme situation, and only if agreed by a referee such as the U.S.-led Quartet.  The 2013-2014 Kerry-led negotiations were a sad failure, despite their noble intentions. The idea of going directly to a permanent solution within nine months was flawed: it didn’t take into account either the readiness of the players to do just that, or the situation on the ground (mainly that Hamas, who holds the Gaza Strip, has been - so far - against a peace agreement with Israel).  The total collapse of these talks was conducive to the end of the relative stable security environment of those days. It was due to a clear mistake by Secretary Kerry, backed by President Obama. This mistake can now be rectified if a clear vision towards a gradually- implemented permanent solution is unambiguously detailed by the President.  Obama made tangible progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a high priority since his second day in power, when he hastened to appoint George Mitchell his special envoy for Middle East peace. The president met too many obstacles on the way to make good on his promise. Now he is nearing his second-last day in power. But he still has time to make a difference. Dr. Yossi Beilin served as Israel's Minister of Justice and initiated the Oslo Accords, Geneva Accords and the Taglit Birthright project.

Summary: This "no strings attached" window of opportunity has been used before: by the Reagan administration to recognize the PLO in 1988, and by the Clinton administration to issue the "Clinton Parameters" for peace in December 2000. Both moves were harshly rejected by the Israeli right. Will Obama follow these precedents? He has given out conflicting signals….The best options for a last-minute Obama intervention require a stepping up of the rhetoric and intentions. That would mean a UN resolution directly initiated by the U.S., or a policy speech that packed its punches rather than go over old ground.

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Al-Monitor – October 31, 2016 How Netanyahu Is Keeping Secret His Move to Help Palestinians By Shlomi Eldar  The public has been watching Avigdor Liberman with a critical eye since he was appointed defense minister at the end of May. Not only does Liberman lack any background in defense, while he served in the opposition, Liberman was not one to hold back his criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Instead, he insisted on offering his own solutions to eliminate the latest wave of terrorism and topple the Hamas regime in Gaza, and it will be a long time before anyone forgets his promise to kill Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh within 48 hours if Hamas did not return the bodies of Israeli soldiers in its possession since the 2014 war on Gaza.  The surprises from Liberman haven’t stopped since. Take, for example, his attention-grabbing Oct. 24 announcement to the Palestinian Al-Quds newspaper that he would be willing to create an airport and seaport in Gaza provided that Hamas lays down arms.  This week we learned that last month, the Security Cabinet secretly approved a long list of zoning plans and construction permits for Palestinians living in Area C, which is under full Israeli control. It was all part of Liberman’s “carrot and stick” policy.  The plan was prepared by the office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories under Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, where officials are well aware of the anger and frustration felt by Palestinian residents of Area C. While Palestinians see the housing units for settlers continue to multiply, they are not allowed to build in their own villages because of a supposed lack of approved zoning regulations or master development plan. In an interview with Al-Monitor, Raed Najjar, head of the Burin Village Council, said that the Civil Administration even denied him permission to expand the village school.  “They won’t allow us to expand our infrastructure or build new homes to ease the housing crisis,” said Najjar. “They even gave a demolition order for the Salman al-Farizi Mosque, which was built without a permit.” According to a B’Tselem report, Israel demolished 168 Palestinian residential units in the first half of 2016, leaving 740 people, including 384 minors, without a roof over their heads.  In contrast, a report released by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics on Sept. 27, ahead of the Jewish New Year, found that the settlements’ population growth rate in 2015 (4.1%) was double that of Israel’s overall rate (2%).  Some 60% of the West Bank, amounting to 3.6 million dunams, is defined as Area C, under full Israeli control. The ultimate authority in these territories is the Israel Defense Forces, through the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories. The division of the territories into distinct areas (A, B, C) was an integral part of the Oslo Accord (1993). None of the architects of this interim agreement imagined that this temporary division would last for more than two decades.

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 While there are no official statistics available as to how many Palestinian residents live in Area C, a 2014 report by the United Nation’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimated that the population was approaching 300,000. Some of these residents are Bedouin, who live in aluminum shacks and tents in temporary settlements without basic infrastructure such as electricity, water or plumbing. According to the report, only 1% of the territory is zoned for Palestinian development. Some 38 Palestinian settlements, home to about 6,000 people, are on territory declared “IDF firing zones” by Israel. Over 70% of the communities in Area C are not connected to electricity and water networks, forcing them to buy their water in containers that arrive in their settlements on an irregular basis.  In contrast, there are 125 Jewish settlements in Area C. Since the mid-1990s, another 125 illegal outposts that receive government support and assistance have also been established in the area.  “It’s too little, too late,” said Najjar in response to the decision. “We don’t know exactly what they approved and what they are planning to set up. We’ve been submitting [construction] plans for years and asking for permits for both buildings and infrastructure, but we’ve never received a positive response. We received contributions from the European Union and from other donors, who come visit us every now and then. They’ve seen how people live here. We’ve been screaming to high heaven for 20 years now, but nothing has budged here. Every building we put up they tear down. Even another 20 years isn’t enough to fix what was destroyed, and especially what was destroyed in our hearts.”  More than anything else, the Security Cabinet’s approval of the “carrots” without any publicity shows how decisions are made by Netanyahu’s right-wing government, and the influence that the settler leaders have on it. The recent decision may just be a meager answer to an enormous problem, and was a missed opportunity for Israel to adopt corrective measures in response to the EU’s sharp criticism of the demolition of buildings it funded and constructed in the West Bank.  It could also have been an opportunity for Liberman to prove to his critics that his “carrot and stick” really does include benefits and not just punishments. On the other hand, it seems as though concerns over the backlash from settlers, who consider any Palestinian construction in Area C untenable, outweigh any public, political, security or humanitarian ones.  Recall the response Liberman received when he first presented his plan in August. A letter he received from members of the Knesset’s Land of Israel lobby protesting the plan claimed that it would provide the support that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas needs to fulfill his own plans to take over Area C. Knesset member Yoav Kish of the Likud argued that it is inconceivable that benefits received by the Palestinians should be allowed to create intolerable differences with the Jewish population, which he called the main victim of Palestinian terrorist attacks.  Any government worried about the settlers’ response to its approval of projects necessary for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians under full Israeli control in those areas to go about their daily lives will be unable to move forward in a diplomatic process that demands much larger concessions. Shlomi Eldar is an Israel Pulse columnist for Al-Monitor. 7

Summary: “It’s too little, too late,” said Najjar in response to the decision. “We don’t know exactly what they approved and what they are planning to set up. We’ve been submitting [construction] plans for years and asking for permits for both buildings and infrastructure, but we’ve never received a positive response. We received contributions from the European Union and from other donors, who come visit us every now and then. They’ve seen how people live here. We’ve been screaming to high heaven for 20 years now, but nothing has budged here. Every building we put up they tear down. Even another 20 years isn’t enough to fix what was destroyed, and especially what was destroyed in our hearts.” More than anything else, the Security Cabinet’s approval of the “carrots” without any publicity shows how decisions are made by Netanyahu’s right-wing government, and the influence that the settler leaders have on it. The recent decision may just be a meager answer to an enormous problem, and was a missed opportunity for Israel to adopt corrective measures in response to the EU’s sharp criticism of the demolition of buildings it funded and constructed in the West Bank.

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