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Futures of Technology in Africa FUTURES OF TECHNOLOGY IN AFRICA Jasper Grosskurth STT 75 About STT STT explores new trends and develops inspiring foresights on technology and society. For that purpose STT facilitates a free space in which enthusiastic stakeholders meet and construct creative views on the future. The results serve as starting points for new initiatives, such as applied research programmes or public-private cooperation. Project participants are the most important ambassadors of the results, which are also distributed through the media, lectures and workshops. The STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends was established in 1968 by The Netherlands Royal Instititute of Engineers (KIVI). STT is a non-profit organiza- tion funded by the Dutch government and business contributions. STT’s advisory board consists of almost 30 members who are selected among contributors and scientific institutions, all appointed on personal title. In addition, STT hosts two academic chairs on futures studies and research. While most regular updates on our activities are in Dutch, many of our reports are in English. Do take a look at current and past foresight projects and our recent publications on our website. Address: P.O. Box 30424 2500 GK The Hague the Netherlands Telephone: +31 70 302 98 30 E-mail: [email protected] Imprint Lead author: Jasper Grosskurth, STT, the Hague Proofreading: Sally Lansdell, EditExpert, Northolt, United Kingdom Production co-ordinator: Rosemarijke Otten, STT, the Hague Book and cover design: Roquefort Ontwerpers, Utrecht STT 75 Print: Deltahage, the Hague ISBN 978-90-809613-7-1 STT Publication no 75 FUTURES OF NUR 950 Keywords: Africa, technology, development, foresight © 2010 STT, The Hague, the Netherlands TECHNOLOGY Rights are reserved under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) IN AFRICA You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the work under the following conditions: Jasper Grosskurth • You must attribute the work to “STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends / Jasper Grosskurth, http://www.stt.nl, 2010” • You may not use this work for commercial purposes. • You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. • For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. Any of the above conditions can be waived if you get permission from the copy- right holder. Where the work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license. In no way are any of the following rights affected by the license: • Your fair dealing or fair use rights, or other applicable copyright exceptions and limitations. • The author’s moral rights. • Rights other persons may have either in the work itself or in how the work is used, such as publicity or privacy rights. STT, Den Haag, Nederland 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 9: 114 Chapter 10: 124 Technology in context Learning from Africa Preface 6 With Sheila Ochugboju Introduction 8 Chapter 1: 16 Chapter 2: 24 Chapter 11: 132 A Kenyan Science Fiction story: 140 21st century Africa African futures studies A guide for the future The Last Infirmity Of Noble Minds Author: Geci Karuri-Sebina Author: Wambura Kimunyu Chapter 3: 32 Chapter 4: 38 References 146 Exploring technology futures Africa will be flat With contributions from Ben White and List of abbreviations 150 Gertjan van Stam Acknowledgements 152 STT publications 156 Chapter 5: 60 Chapter 6: 76 STT funders 160 Energizing Africa The road less paved With contributions from Birthe Paul and Janneke Brouwers Chapter 7: 88 Chapter 8: 98 Seeds of change Too many futures With contributions from Wambura Kimunyu, Njoroge Matathia, Tonee Ndungu and Sheila Ochugboju 4 5 Preface The STT Netherlands Study Centre for Barack Obama during his visit to Ghana in 2009: change global technology. These are big and com- invite you to join us in our renewed curiosity, of Technology Trends (STT) explores futures “The 21st century will be shaped by what happens plex questions and the STT foresight project, which which this book is a reflection. at the crossroads of technology and not just in Rome or Moscow or Washington, but by ends with this publication, is a contribution to this society. In 2007, STT decided to initiate what happens in Accra, as well.” This is not only discussion that is still in its infancy with respect to a foresight on ‘Technology in Develop- because the tools of knowledge economies and the Africa. CE ing Countries’. Since the founding of STT gadgets of consumer societies crucially rely on the in 1968, this was going to be the first continent’s rare metals. This book is only one result of the STT foresight on project with an explicit focus on devel- technology in Africa. Other tangible results include opment. The underlying question was Despite the change and the attention, many of the 1st Business Summit Netherlands–Africa in FA how new technology would affect the Africa’s problems are persistent and much of the November 2010 and the Discover the Lion workshop poorest societies rather than the richest, continent’s potential is still unused. Too many go series on technology-intensive industries in Africa, those with least access to technology hungry, too many are displaced or killed in con- both to be continued in the future by the Neth- rather than those surrounded by the flicts, too many get too little education, too many erlands–African Business Council (NABC). Dozens latest inventions. The most important die from easily preventable or curable diseases, too of organizations, including NGOs such as IICD, the reason for focusing the project on Africa many are corrupt. The wealth of natural resources 1% Club and AMREF Flying Doctors, businesses, was the perception that Africa might be could secure livelihoods for the long term, if put including TNO and several NABC members, aca- PRE close to a tipping point in its develop- to productive use. The land and the farmers could demic projects, such as the 3TU initiative on ethics, ment and growth, with technology as an important feed Africa and more, given appropriate farming technology and development, and governmental factor. Since then, the evidence has strengthened techniques and governance. The young popula- organizations, such as the Scientific Council for Dr Tini Hooymans that this is indeed the case. And this forms the tion could make Africa an economic powerhouse, Government Policy (WRR), the Social and Economic Chair of ‘The Future of Ir Wiebe Draijer backbone of this book. given the opportunity and skills. International and Council (SER) of the Netherlands and the Advisory Technology in Develop- Chair of the STT Nether- intercontinental trade could prosper, given the right Council for Science and Technology Policy (AWT), ing Countries’ Steering lands Study Centre for Since 2007, it has become evident to the world that infrastructure. have consulted the project to improve their own Committee Technology Trends Africa is changing fundamentally. Economically, activities and projects. most African countries have outgrown the world Technology holds many promises as a driver of economy for the last decade. Politically, the number positive changes, as a tool to address the problems Many other results are intangible. Several of the of conflicts is decreasing, while the number of and as an enabler to fulfil the potential. Economic interviewees on location now incorporate long- democratic changes of government is on the rise. development requires modern technology and term thinking in their professional lives; business Institutionally, issues standing in the way of de- technology plays an important role in most strate- partners met during project activities and initiated velopment, such as contested land rights, customs gies for alleviating hunger and poverty. Technology common projects; local programmers were moti- inefficiencies and red tape, are more and more be- can reduce transaction costs, save lives, facilitate vated by seeing their own activities placed in the ing addressed. Technologically, Africa has surprised education, strengthen entrepreneurship, provide bigger context of an African technology revolution; even the most optimistic market experts with the access to markets and help to deliver basic ser- arts students at the Royal Academy of Arts in the rise of the mobile phone. The more than 450 mil- vices, ranging from water and sanitation to public Hague were inspired to explore how shifts in per- lion units in use today might well be a prelude to administration. However, the same technology can ception and paradigms, such as the West’s redis- a fundamental ICT revolution in Africa. Culturally, also be destructive and a cause of problems. Some covery of Africa, can be captured with digital media; the continent is discovering its own capacities and technological developments can be facilitated or entrepreneurs questioned their own assumptions diversity in a globalizing world. managed, others happen and require an adequate and found new sources of information; journal- response. ists actively went to look for the Africa beyond the The rest of the world is beginning to notice the problems. change. Businesses from all continents are discov- It is this manifold interrelation of technology with ering the economic potential of Africa, ranging from its environment that makes exploring the future This STT foresight project has also changed our own serving consumers at the base of the pyramid to of technology so interesting and valuable. There is perception of Africa. We have been surprised by executing pan-African infrastructure projects, from a need to explore how technology in Africa will or the speed and diversity of change. We have been growing grains, fruits and vegetables to securing might evolve; to discuss the drivers and the obsta- disappointed by how little of the potential is being access to minerals. In an increasingly interconnect- cles, the issues technology might resolve and the used.
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