Iraqi Forces Involved in the “Liberation” of Mosul, Total About 80,000 from Six Major Groups
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Lessons learned from the battle for Mosul 2016-7 Professor Clive Williams MG Centre for Military and Security Law, The Australian National University 1 Scope of presentation • Mosul statistics (and some comparisons with Aleppo). • “Allied” interests and military forces involved. • The lead-up to the Mosul battle and current situation. • What will happen after Mosul falls? • Lessons learned from the battle. 2 Operation Okra.. • About 780 ADF personnel have deployed to the Middle East in support of Operation OKRA. These personnel make up the Air Task Group (ATG), the Special Operations Task Group (SOTG) and Task Group Taji (TG Taji). 3 Operation Okra • Comprising approximately: – 400 personnel assigned to the ATG at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE – 300 personnel assigned to TG Taji in Iraq – 80 personnel assigned to the SOTG in Iraq • The SOTG soldiers have been deployed to assist the Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) at Mosul. 4 Mosul statistics 5 Stats – Mosul.. Mosul’s population prior to IS occupation in 2014 was 2.4 million. It had - and still has - a Sunni Arab population majority (85-90%), concentrated particularly in Mosul west of the Tigris. Across the Tigris and further north in the suburbs, Mosul's population comprises mainly Assyrians, Kurds, Turkmen, Shabaks, Yazidis, Armenians and Mandeans. 6 Mosul cultural sites • Mosul is rich in ancient cultural sites and its museum was the second largest in Iraq after Baghdad. • IS destruction of cultural treasures seems to have been widespread. https://vid.alarabiya.net/images/2014/07/24/344392b2-81b7-496a-99ea- aca3d8554b25/344392b2-81b7-496a-99ea- 7 aca3d8554b25_16x9_600x338.JPG Mosul cultural sites • IS has a unit Kata'ib Taswiyya tasked with selecting cultural targets for demolition. • Some easily transportable artefacts have been looted and sold to finance IS activities. https://vid.alarabiya.net/images/2014/07/24/344392b2-81b7-496a-99ea- aca3d8554b25/344392b2-81b7-496a-99ea- 8 aca3d8554b25_16x9_600x338.JPG Stats - Mosul . Important commercial products of the Mosul area include marble, sulphur and oil/petroleum. One of IS’ obstructive defensive measures was to set fire to a major sulphur Local marble factory south of 9 Mosul. Comparisons with Aleppo 10 Stats – Aleppo.. Aleppo’s population is 1.8 million, with 1.5 million in government controlled areas. Comparing built-up areas, Aleppo is much the same size as Mosul with an area of 190 sq km – compared to Mosul’s 170 sq km, but Aleppo has more multi-storey buildings. In Aleppo, the attacking Syrian government and Russian forces were seen in the West as the “bad guys” and the US-supported opposition fighters (other than those aligned with al-Qaeda (AQ)) as the “good guys”. 11 Stats - Aleppo . The reality was that the Aleppo opposition groups were an unsavoury loose coalition who used civilians as human shields and lacked much popular support. https://www.google.com/search?as_st=y&tbm=isch&as_q=mosul+street&as_epq=&a s_oq=&as_eq=&imgsz=&imgar=&imgc=&imgcolor=&imgtype=&cr=&as_sitesearc h=&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=&gws_rd=ssl#as_st=y&tbm=isch&q=Ale12 ppo+human+shields&imgrc=qJqWfW0uSNoaEM%3A Stats - Aleppo . The Syrian government and Russian forces were ruthless in going after the opposition groups and were prepared to cause civilian casualties in the process. http://pravda-team.ru/eng/image/article/3/0/4/57304.jpeg 13 Mosul - allied interests and military forces involved 14 Competing interests . Iran, Iraq, Turkey, the US, the Arab Gulf States, Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Shia groups, Sunni tribal groups and Iraq’s ethnic minority groups - all have overlapping or competing strategic interests in Mosul. To take one example, Turkey’s interest dates from the period of the Ottoman empire. In 1916, the Sykes-Picot Agreement and later the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne removed territory that included Mosul from Turkey. 15 Competing interests.. Turkish nationalists still believe that Mosul should be part of Turkey. The Turkish government wants to maintain a military presence near Mosul to keep the lid on Kurdish separatism and protect Turkmen interests. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/images/d c5hur-6n0r9r4chrdiyuzre2a_original.jpg 16 Competing interests . The US focus is on defeating IS in both Mosul and Raqqa as soon as possible, but it does not want US casualties. It has encouraged the Kurdish Peshmerga to take on IS, but is now limiting US air support to them in favour of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and CTS. At the same time. the US does not want to alienate Turkey by making the Peshmerga capable enough to take over Mosul, or seeming to support Kurdish separatism. 17 Competing interests . Iraq says it does not want foreign forces on its soil - but does not have the capability to remove the US-led 60 nation coalition or Turkish troops. https://www.google.com/search?as_st=y&tbm=isch&as_q=turksih+forces+in+iraq&a s_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&imgsz=&imgar=&imgc=&imgcolor=&imgtype=&cr=&as _sitesearch=&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=&gws_rd=ssl#gws_rd=ssl&img http://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/01/26/concerns- rc=E_ZbyjaFN1RI7M%3A 18 about-fatigue-mount-iraqi-troops-prepare-retake-mosul.html Participating forces.. US intelligence sources believe that IS committed 3- 5,000 fighters to protect Mosul, of whom more than 1,000 are foreign fighters. 19 Participating forces.. While a number of IS commanders have remained in Mosul, more senior IS figures have reportedly sold their properties and moved their families to Syria. IS leader al-Baghdadi is probably in Raqqa. 20 Participating forces.. Iraqi forces involved in the “liberation” of Mosul, total about 80,000 from six major groups: https://www.google.com/search?as_st=y&tbm=i sch&as_q=iraqi+forces+advancing+on+Mosul& as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&imgsz=&imgar=&i mgc=&imgcolor=&imgtype=&cr=&as_sitesear ch=&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=&g ws_rd=ssl#gws_rd=ssl&imgrc=9S- sTkTU29bHYM%3A 21 Participating forces.. First, the ISF, (20-25,000) - the regular Iraqi Armed Forces and Interior Ministry forces - including the Iraqi Police, and the General Security Directorate’s Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS). They have three divisions around Mosul. Iraqi military forces include the CTS (1,800) separate from Defense and the Interior Ministry, under command of the PM. The CTS has two Task Forces at Mosul. They wear black uniforms. 22 Participating forces.. Second, the Hashd al-Ashari, a 15,000 strong Sunni militia force under the nominal control of Falah al-Fayad, head of the National Security https://www.google.com/search?as_st=y&tbm=isch&as_q= mosul+street&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&imgsz=&imgar= &imgc=&imgcolor=&imgtype=&cr=&as_sitesearch=&safe Agency. =images&as_filetype=&as_rights=&gws_rd=ssl#as_st=y&t bm=isch&q=Hashd+al-Ashairi . Third, the Haras Nineveh, which consists of local Sunni Arab tribes. https://www.google.com/search?as_st=y&tbm=isch&as_q=mosul+ street&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&imgsz=&imgar=&imgc=&imgc olor=&imgtype=&cr=&as_sitesearch=&safe=images&as_filetype=23 &as_rights=&gws_rd=ssl#as_st=y&tbm=isch&q=Haras+Nineveh &imgrc=DUUdLjbjsDaXvM%3A Participating forces.. Fourth, the Hashd al-Shaabi or Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a Shia coalition of 40+ militias https://www.google.com/search?as_st=y&tbm=isch&as_q= mosul+street&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&imgsz=&imgar= &imgc=&imgcolor=&imgtype=&cr=&as_sitesearch=&safe supported by Iran =images&as_filetype=&as_rights=&gws_rd=ssl#as_st=y&t bm=isch&q=pmf+iraq&imgrc=FTMjC-lKXkqAOM%3A and nominally under Iraqi government 24 control. Participating forces.. Fifth, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, estimated at 40,000 to 50,000, that have surrounded Mosul in a crescent formation from NW to SE. They include 1,500 http://rudaw.net/ContentFilesArchive/232115Image1.jpg members of the Turkish-backed Nineveh Guard Force. 25 Participating forces . Sixth, smaller armed groups including Christians, Yazidis, Shabaks, Kakais, and Turkmen who are affiliated with, and supported by, either the Iraqi government, the PMF, or Kurdish groups. One such group is the 600-strong Christian Nineveh Plains Protection Unit (NPU). http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/141120092346- 26 qassim-shesho-with-a-group-horizontal-large-gallery.jpg The Fallujah blueprint 27 Fallujah the blueprint.. • Despite US protestations that Mosul should be recovered first because of its importance to IS (and Washington), the Iraqi Haider Al-Abadi government made the recovery of Fallujah its first priority. • Fallujah, being only 66 km from Baghdad, was a much more pressing concern for the Iraqi government than distant Mosul because it was a base for attacks on Baghdad. 28 Fallujah the blueprint • Fallujah fell after three months’ fighting but much of the city was destroyed. • Resettlement of the displaced Sunni population back into Fallujah has been hampered by excesses of the Shia militia, government’s failure to restore destroyed infrastructure and property, and IS’s placement of booby traps and mines throughout the city. • IS has now shifted to rural guerrilla warfare around Fallujah. 29 30 Conduct of the battle.. • The Iraqi advance towards Mosul began on 17 October 2016. • The offensive began with Iraqi troops and Peshmerga fighters engaging IS on three fronts outside Mosul, going from occupied village to village in the surrounding area. • More than 120 towns and villages were freed from IS control in the first two weeks of fighting. By 3 December that number had increased to 369. 31 IS preparation.. • IS was always expected to put up strong resistance in Mosul, as they had done elsewhere, and particularly because of Mosul being the “capital” of the IS caliphate in Iraq. • IS also had two and a half years to prepare for an allied attack. 32 IS preparation.. • As anticipated, IS has made extensive use of: – Snipers and mobile combat teams. – Tunnels to target Iraqi HQ areas and re- access “cleared” areas. – Suicide belts to avoid capture alive.