Disaster Management in Bangladesh: Role of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)

Md. Abdur Rahman Deputy Director Bangladesh Meteorological Department Agargaon, Dhaka, Bangladesh Responsibilities of BMD • Bangladesh Meteorological Department is mandated by the Government to monitor and issue all kinds of forecasts and warnings for all extreme events including provision of earthquake information to Government and public. • National forecasting on all time scales including the issuance of tropical cyclone forecast and warnings. • Provide seismological information in and around the country along with Tsunami Advisories and warnings to the government and public. • Cater to all international and domestic air lines, VVIP and VIP Flights. • Providing agro-meteorological Advisories and long-range forecast for the agricultural sectors. • Supply and facilitate the applications of climate data and information to the government and private agencies for planning and performance of socioBMD-economic Headquarteractivities. Storm Warning Centre

Conventional Observatory

An Observer is taking observation VSAT Antenna Moulvibazar Khepupra Radar Cox’s Bazar Radar Doppler Radar

Dhaka Radar Composite Radar Radar Coverage Rangpur Radar Picture Storm Warning Centre (SWC) of BMD

Cloud image Rain cloud

etc. Upper air data Ground data Temp. Wind Computer Rainfall Air pressure Rainfall Prediction etc.

Television. Radio. News paper. Telephone. Fax. Web page, IVR (1090) Observational facilities of BMD

a. Synoptic observatories : 35 b. Pilot Observatories : 10 c. Rawinsonde Observatories : 3 d. Agromet observatories : 12 e. RADAR Stations :5 (3 are Doppler Radar) • Synoptic Observatory • Pilot Balloon f. Seismic Observatories : 04 +06 Observatory g. Satellite Gr. Re.Stn. : 02 -Himawary, FY2G, 2D &2E

a. Synoptic Obs.: 05 b. Agromet Obs. : 07 c. Inland river port obs. : 13 d. 49 AWS. *

• Rawinsonde • Agromet Observatory Observatory

BMD Website (www.bmd.gov.bd) BMD Website (www.bmd.gov.bd) BMD Website (www.bmd.gov.bd) BMD Website (www.bmd.gov.bd) Development of Early Warning System (EWS) in Bangladesh

British Colonial Rule  After the great Bakerganj cyclone of 1876, The India Meteorological Department was established.  The main objective of the of the meteorological services were- focused to military expeditions and commercial shipping.  But the initiation of the meteorological service enhanced later development of modern weather services in the region.  It had little contribution to the public benefit in the risk of disasters. Development of EWS in Bangladesh

Pakistan Era • In 1966, Cyclone Preparedness Programmeon was established. • But relief and rehabilitation were the notion of the government rather than preparedness and mitigation. • In 1970 the most devastating cyclone caused no less than 300,000 deaths and enormous economic loss. May be it caught less attention of the government because of political turmoil in the part of the country. Development of EWS in Bangladesh

EWS in Bangladesh • Bangladesh got independence in 1971. • Bangladesh Meteorological Department reorganized. • Cyclone centers were built but the approach to disaster management remained almost same during the 70’s and 80’s. • In 1991 a cyclone killed about 140,000 people and made a colossal economic loss. • In the 80’s and 90’s some remarkable floods occurred. Specially the flood of 1998 which stayed longest period and flooded the largest area in the history. Development of EWS in Bangladesh

After these two catastrophic disasters the government had come to a point we may call ‘the phase of paradigm sift’. • In 1993, the GoB established the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), Disaster Management Council and Disaster Management Committees from national to field levels and rename the Ministry of Relief and rehabilitation as Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. • The DMB has responsibilities:  To create public awareness on hazards and preparedness.  To formulate programs and projects for vulnerable communities and public officials disaster preparedness.  To coordinate all activities related to disaster management from national to grass-root level.  To maintain liaison with government agencies, donors and NGOs. Development of EWS in Bangladesh

• The Ministry of Disaster Management and relief was renamed as the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management in 2004. It has responsibilities: • Food management. • Planning, coordination, monitoring and evaluation of all activities related to disaster management. • Coordination among other organizations. • Assisting other ministries and organizations in disaster related works. • Formulation of policy and its implementation for food assisted projects and programmes management of external food aid and other relief assistance. • Management of all other food and disaster related activities on the government side. Development of EWS in Bangladesh

• In 2003, a Comprehensive disaster Management Programme (CDMP) of MoFDM was designed to help upgrade capabilities for all disaster management agencies with the help of UNDP and DFID.

After liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistan in 1971 the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent withdrew from direct implementation through CPP.

CPP turned out to be a joint venture programme of the government and Red Crescent society. In which the implementation part is mainly maintained by CPP through its community based preparedness programme. Governance and Institutions Legal Framework had been done for fostering the activities for Disaster Risk reduction and Emergency Management in Bangladesh. Which includes: 1. Disaster Management Act. 2. National Plan for Disaster Management. 3. National Disaster management policy. 4. Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD). 5. Guidelines for government at all Levels. 6.National to local emergency planning. 7. Disaster Management Plans •Inter-linkages between various regulative instruments and programming for implementation. Disaster management planning framework Total coast line = 720 km Coastal people=36 million (23%) Exist cap S,cent=3975 Reqd.=5,500 Coastal districts= 19 Organizational structure for implementing the plans Hazard Monitoring, Forecasting and Mandates of Warning Generation.

• Type I: Has sole mandate for development of warning for the hazard, • Type II: Has joint mandate for the development of the warning hazard, • Type III: Provides information to other agencies that have the mandate for the development of the warning) Hazard Warning programme by Storm Warning Centre (SWC) of BMD Warning message/ bulletin distribution flow chart Dissemination of warnings and signals from the Storm Warning Centre (SWC) of BMD through the CPP to the community people Early Warning saves millions in Bangladesh In respect of raising public awareness, motivation and effective early warning dissemination at the community level, the loss of lives and properties of the community could reduced. • November 1970 cyclone: 223 km/hr, causalities-almost 500,000 • April 1991 cyclone: 225 km/hr, causalities- only 140,000, although the population in the coastal area has doubled since 1970. • November 2007: cyclone ‘SIDR’, 220 km/hr and causalities-only 3,347 people lost their lives. 105000 112500 120000 127500 135000 142500 150000 157500 165000 172500 180000 187500 195000 202500 Figure Figure 1: Causalities along 15000 22500 30000 37500 45000 52500 60000 67500 75000 82500 90000 97500 7500 with with cyclonesin recorded 0 Gradual Gradual reduction of death tolls for tropical cyclone Cy_1970 200000

Cy_1974 during during 1970 20

Cy_1981 72 Bangladesh Cy_1983 43

Cy_1983 300

Cy_1985 4264

Cy_1988 6133

Cy_1991 138882

Cy_1994 188 - Cy_1997 2009 155

Cy_1997 78

Cy_1998 14

Cy_2000 3

Cy_2002 2

Cy_2007 3363

Cy_2009 190 cyclones in Bangladesh during during similar intensity 100000 150000 200000 reduction reduction of causalities 50000 0 Figure Figure 2: Trend of

Cy_1970 200000 Cy_1991

Cy_2007 138882 3363 BMD Initiatives to improve Early Warning System in Bangladesh 1. Improvement of Observational Network • Surface and upper air observation • Satellite receiving system • Radar System and communication link 2. Introduction of NWP technique 3. Enhancement of Human Capacity 4. Installation of media centre for live and quick dissemination of forecast and warning 5. Dissemination of forecast and warning through voice record 6. Dissemination of forecast and warning through mobile phone SMS 7. Dissemination of forecast and warning through interactive and dynamic web site (www.bmd.gov.bd) BMD Initiatives to build awareness about Disasters that affect Bangladesh 1. Human Capacity Building Project • Installation of AWS • Enhancement of NWP technique and PC Cluster • Calibration Radar data • Quality control of observed data • Briefing the school students through open class • Preparation booklet (in Bengali and English) • Preparation of cartoon ‘Megdut’ • Broadcast the cartoon ‘Megdut’ through Electronic Media • Organizing seminar/ symposium at local level on different disasters with the participation of all sector people. • Organizing seminar/ symposium at district and national level BMD Initiatives to build awareness about Disasters that affect Bangladesh 1. CDMP Project • Impart training about disaster to the employee at all levels of BMD specially those who works at field levels • Established internet connection between BMD to all observatory for quick dissemination of warning and collection of observed data • Improvement of computing facilities of BMD • etc. 2. Organizing monsoon Forum collaborating with RIMES • Two times in a year • Stakeholders of BMD including media • Explain forecast and warnings • Seeking gaps between forecast and observation BMD Initiatives to build awareness about Disasters that affect Bangladesh 3. National Working Group Meeting collaborating with SMRC • Two times in a year (before and after monsoon) • Stakeholders of BMD including media • Explain monsoon forecast and related warnings • Seeking feedback from the stakeholders for improvement. 4. Initiation of project under climate change trust fund of Bangladesh Government 5. Initiate collaboration with Metno., JMA and KMA 6. Participating actively in all activities of Disaster management and Climate Change in Bangladesh. Disasters in Bangladesh (a) Cyclone & associated Storm Surge (b) Nor’westers/Tornadoes (c) Drought (d) Floods and River Erosion (e) Heat Waves and Cold Waves (f) Earthquakes (10 centers connected with HQ) (g) Land slide (h) Heavy rainfall (i) Fog etc. Classification of cyclonic disturbances followed by RSMC, New Delhi (BMD has been following) Classifications of cyclonic disturbances for the north Indian Ocean region for the exchange of messages among the Panel countries are given below: Historical Cyclone in July (crossed Bangladesh coast)

Cyclone Komen (26-30 July 2015) • Low Pressure Area: 00 UTC of 26 . 24-27 July 1894 July. . 25-27 July 1906 • Monsoon Depression: 06 UTC of 26 . 05-08 July 1926 . 15-22 July 1930 July. • Cyclonic Storm: 15 UTC of 29 July. • Crossed Bangladesh (near Sandwip: at night of 30 July.

Observed Track: Cyclone Komen Recorded Rainfall during Cyclone Komen

. Teknaf 825 mm . Cox’s Bazar 748 mm . Kutubdia 594 mm . Chittagong 554 mm . Sandwip 492 mm *More than 400 mm only

Sat: Himawary, FY,2G,2D,2E Predicted & Recorded Wind Speed • Model Predicted wind speed of more than 100 KPH (30 m/s) over Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf coast. • Recorded wind speed are: o Teknaf: 100 Kph o Saint Martin: 89 Kph o Chittagong: 59 Kph Impact of Cyclone ‘Komen’  7 Coastal Districts (Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Bhola, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Brahmanbaria and Barguna)  7 people killed and other 10 more were missing  Almost 1 lac houses got damaged and around 6 lac people were affected.

Komen Affected Area Few pictures related to the impact of the cyclone Komen Historical Cyclone in May (Some of them crossed BD Coast) Cyclone Roanu (15-20 May 2016)

Sl Date Time (UTC) Status

01. 15.05.2016 0300 L 02. 15.05.2016 0900 WML 03. 17.05.2016 0600 D 04. 18.05.2016 1200 DD 05. 19.05.2016 0300 CS 06. 20.05.2016 0000 CS 07. 20.05.2016 0000 CS 08. 20.05.2016 0300 CS 09. 20.05.2016 0600 CS 10. 20.05.2016 1200 CS

Observed Track: Cyclone Roanu Recorded Max wind due to cyclone Roanu Maximum Wind Station speed Sandwip 38 kts/ 70 kph Sitakunda 40 kts/74 kph Rangamati 16 kts/30 kph Comilla 40 kts/74kph Chandpur 07kts/ 13kph Maijdee Court 35 kts/65 kph Feni 35 kts/65 kph Hatiya 30 kts/56 kph Cox’s Bazar 45 kts/ 83 kph Kutubdia 30 kts/56 kph Teknaf 31 kts/ 57 kph Khulna 20 kts/37 kph Barisal 25 kts/46 kph Fig. : Pressure and Wind Patuakhali 32 kts/ 59 kph associated with cyclone ‘Roanu’ Khepupara 35 kts/65 kph Bhola 17 kts/32 kph (a) large view

Storm Surge associated with Cyclone Roanu Observed Storm Station Comments Surge As per the Kutubd 03-04 Feet opinion of ia BMD’s observer About 5 Feet As per the (b) Close view Cox’s during high tide opinion of Bazar and about 3 Feet BMD’s Officer during low tide

BMD predicted Storm Surge height (using IIT-D Storm Surge Model) (a) (b) Disaster Management Activities (during 21 May 2016) (a) Volunteers (65,000) of Red Crescent carried out publicity campaign, (b) Red Cross volunteers call people to evacuate (c) (d) place (c) Red Cross Volunteers are helping to people to move cyclone shelter, (d) People are moving to the Cyclone Shelter, (e) (f) (e) Villagers are staying at a shelter center and (f) Houses destroyed by cyclone Roanu at Banshkhali, Chittagong. Causalities due to the Cyclone Roanu

Sl District Dead Injured Missing 1 Chittagong 12 - - 2 Cox’s Bazar 3 - - 3 Chandpur - - - 4 Noakhali 3 - - 5 Feni 1 - 2 6 Laxmipur 1 1 - 7 Bagerhat - - - 8 Khulna - - - 9 Satkhira - - - 10 Barisal - - - 11 Patuakhali 1 - - 12 Firozpur - - - 13 Bhola 3 - - 14 Barguna - - - 15 Jhalakhati - - - Total 24 1 2 Thanks for patient hearing