Emergency Assistance Project (RRP BAN 51274-001) CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT REPORT I. Basic Project Information Project Title: BAN (51274-001): Emergency Assistance Project Project Cost (in $ million): $120 million Location: Coxsbazar District: Ukhia Upazila (subdistrict) (21.22 N, 92.10 E) and Teknaf Upazila (subdistrict) (21.06 N, 92.20 E) Sector/Subsectors: • Water and other urban infrastructure and services/Urban flood protection, urban sanitation, urban solid waste management and urban water supply • Energy/Electricity transmission and distribution • Transport/Road transport (non-urban) Theme: Inclusive economic growth; environmentally sustainable growth Brief Description: Beginning August 2017, Bangladesh has received over 700,000 displaced persons in Myanmar as a result of events in the neighboring Rahkine State, joining around 400,000 displaced persons who had arrived in waves from Rahkine over the past decades. They are living in 32 camps in the Coxsbazar district, with over 600,000 living in the mega-camp at Kutupalong-Balukhali. The large influx of displaced persons has caused a huge strain on the local people and economy. The Emergency Assistance Project will support the Government of Bangladesh in addressing the immediate needs of the displaced persons in the Coxsbazar district with the objective to help avert the humanitarian crisis. The project scope includes the improvement of water supply and sanitation, disaster risk management, sustainable energy supply, and access roads. The south-eastern part of Bangladesh where the project is being proposed is exposed to various types of natural hazards in an extremely fragile environment with cyclone and monsoon seasons, including flooding, landslides, wind storms, lightning, fires, heat waves, and cold spells. Climate change is expected to aggravate the intensity, frequency, and unpredictability of extreme weather events. Much of the land used for the camps is steep or low-lying, prone to flooding, and landslides. The project impact is accelerated social recovery of displaced persons in the subdistricts of Ukhia and Teknaf. Its outcome will be improved living conditions and resilience of displaced persons. II. Summary of Climate Risk Screening and Assessment A. Sensitivity of Project Component(s) to Climate/Weather Conditions and Sea Level Project components Sensitivity to climate/weather conditions 1. Bathing facilities 2. Mini piped-water supply systems (production and distribution) The design of project components need to focus 3. Waste management on sensitive weather parameters that are subject 4. Water treatment to a wide variety of changing climate/weather 5. Multipurpose cyclone shelters with emergency access roads conditions in the future, such as increased 6. Food distribution centers intensity and frequency of precipitation and 7. Hill slope protection/toe walls to resist landslides extreme flooding. 8. Storm water drainage networks 9. Standalone solar powered street lights 10. Substations and distribution lines with transformers 11. Access roads and drainage systems B. Climate Risk Screening – Climate Risk by Sector (see Appendix 5 for details) Temperature Precipitation Extreme events Sea level rise increase change (heavy rainfall, wind, and storm surge and storms/cyclones) 1. Access roads Medium Medium High High 2. Water supply / treatment High High High High 3. Waste management High High High High 4. Buildings (Bathing facilities, food Medium Medium High High distribution center, evacuation) 5. Energy systems 2 Production Medium Medium Medium Medium Distribution Medium Medium High High Climate Risk Classification: Medium to High C. Climate Risk Assessment The southeastern part of Bangladesh where Coxsbazar District is located, is exposed to various types of natural hazards in an extremely fragile environment with cyclone and monsoon seasons, including flooding, landslides, wind storms, lightning, droughts, fires, heat waves, and cold spells. Extreme rainfall events, increased flooding, and increased cyclone activity can affect the integrity of the physical infrastructures and people’s safety and health. Potential impacts could include: • Increased water treatment requirements and costs to address lower water quality (e.g., increased algal blooms and bacterial and fungal content in a warmer temperature; increased salinity due to sea level rise); • During extreme rainfall events, water treatment efficiency may decrease due to rapidly changing water quality; • Inundation of and damages to all physical facilities (e.g., evacuation shelters, food distribution centers) during storm events; • Loss of power disrupting treatment operations; • Damage to power production and distribution networks; • Inundation of low-lying facilities due to sea level rise; • Increased salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers due to sea level rise; and • Pipe leakage and contamination of water supply due to flooding. D. Climate Risk Screening Tool/Procedure Used (specify): SARD’s climate risk screening framework and tool. III. Climate Risk Management Response within the Project • The project team has taken note of potential effects of seasonal weather conditions, including the monsoon season, and expected rainfall to the implementation schedule. Project construction activities will be scheduled in such a way that available working season is efficiently used. • The project has proactively included the installation of lightning arresters in anticipation of increased storm activity. • To mitigate flood risks, design measures have to factor in projected rainfall intensity, frequency, and duration estimates. • Likewise, the design return period for drainage for the access roads has to consider the changed frequency of rainfall intensity and duration. Consider cross-drainages to avoid water logging on the road. In some instances, road level may need to be increased or sited further away from the coast. • Considering the service life of the physical facilities, regular checkup and maintenance, including costs, have to be planned. • Geosynthetics for slope stabilization should be considered. Emergency Assistance Project (RRP BAN 51274-001) Appendix: Information Used during the Assessment 1. Project Location Coxsbazar is located at 21°35′0″N 92°01′0″E and bounded by Bakkhali River on the north and east, Bay of Bengal in the west, and Jhilwanj Union in the south. The climate of Bangladesh is mostly determined by its location in the tropical monsoon region: high temperature, heavy rainfall, generally excessive humidity, and distinct seasonal variations. The climate of Coxsbazar District is mostly similar to the rest of the country. It is further characterized by the location in the coastal area. The annual average temperature in Coxsbazar is about a maximum of 34.8oC and a minimum of 16.1oC. The average annual rainfall is 3,524 mm. Teknaf is one of eight Upazilas of Coxsbazar District in the Chittagong Division. The area has a warm tropical climate and sufficient rainfall, enabling it to support a wide biological diversity. Important habitats include mangroves, mudflats, beaches and sand dunes, canals and lagoons, and marine habitats. The mangroves support the habitat of about 161 fish species. The Ukhia Upazila is bounded by Ramu Upazila on the north, Teknaf on the south, Arakan state of Myanmar and Naikhongchhari Upazila on the east, and Bay of Bengal on the west. The main livelihoods are in agriculture (paddy, fruits, sugarcane, vegetables, fishery, livestock and poultry) and commerce/trade. 2. Natural Hazards and Climate Change in Coxsbazar District The south-eastern part of Bangladesh is exposed to various types of natural hazards in an extremely fragile environment with cyclone and monsoon seasons, including flooding, landslides, wind storms, lightning, fires, heat waves and cold spells. Climate change is expected to aggravate the intensity, frequency, and unpredictability of extreme weather events. Much of the land used for the camps is steep or low-lying, prone to flooding, and landslides. This is further exacerbated by hill cutting and vegetation clearing on the mainly clay hills. The host population of the seven Upazilas comprising Coxsbazar district are considered one of Bangladesh’s most vulnerable districts due to a combination of food insecurity, poor health condition, and high poverty rates well above Bangladesh’s national average. The congested living conditions and poor sanitation in the camps occupied by the displaced persons create additional health risk, including fires and vector- and water-borne diseases. Women and children, of the displaced persons in Coxsbazar district, are always among the most vulnerable population groups in disaster events. 3. Current Climate Conditions and Other Risk-aggravating Factors Dry season is in late November to March. In the dry season, shallow wells are not automatically refilled with rainwater. The high number of displaced persons and extra demands on water may therefore drain shallow wells. Fire becomes a more significant hazard, as flames spread more rapidly in a dry environment. Cyclone season: Two cyclone seasons are distinguished. The post-monsoon cyclone season is October–November, and the pre-monsoon cyclone season occurs April–June. In the past 3 years, Coxsbazar has been hit by one cyclone annually (Cyclone Mora – May 2017, Cyclone Roanu – May 2016, Cyclone Komen – July 2015). Cyclone Mora in May 2017 killed at least six people and injured 218, damaged at least 70% of shelters in makeshift settlements, and