UNOSAT Bangladesh – Tropical Cyclone Mora-17 30 May 2017

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1 30 May 2017 Geneva, Switzerland

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Overview

Mora-17 is a category 1 tropical cyclone which strongly affected the Chittagong Division of Bangladesh. This cyclone originally came from the Indian ocean (Bay of Bengal) at a speed of about 39 km/h. On 30 May 2017, tropical cyclone Mora-17 made landfall first on Cox’s Bazar District and a few hours later in the Chittagong Districts with a maximum sustainable wind speed of 130 km/h. The tropical cyclone is expected to move to the northeast of India in the next few hours however strong winds might still cause floods and mudslides.

Based on data of the observed and predicted tropical cyclone path, wind speeds from JRC (Warning 11 issued the 30th May 2017 at 09:00 UTC), and population data from WorldPop, UNITAR-UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Bangladesh :

- 10,074,699 people are living within 120 km/h wind zones, - 2,803,908 people are living within 90km/h wind zones, and - 67,435,625 people are living within 60km/h wind zones.

Also included is an estimation of the population living within flood hazard zones from the last 25 years (GAR 2015) and exposed to winds of 60km/h to 120km/h speed in Bangladesh. In this sense the total exposed population is 11,034,780, being Chittagong and Sylhet the most vulnerable divisions.

Different media sources are starting to report the damages, including 5 lives lost, 10 injured and around 2’000’00 evacuated people in the country. The number of houses that were destroyed is still unknown, however the strongly affected district of Cox’s Bazar accounts about 17’000 damaged households. (Agencia EFE; La Presse, lté, 30 May 2017)

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

Population exposure estimates are based on cyclone track (JRC) and WorldPop data

Population Exposure in Bangladesh

158,290,260 Total population of

Bangladesh

10,074,699 2,803,908 67,435,625 Total population living in Total population living Total population living in 120 km/h wind speed in 90 km/h wind speed 60 km/h wind speed zones zones zones

Division / Wind Speed zones Total District 120 km/h 90 km/h 60 km/h Chittagong 10,074,699 2,067,298 18,691,208 30,833,204 Chittagong 6,891,059 973,434 148,242 8,012,735 Cox'S Bazar 2,151,141 336,747 20,997 2,508,886 Khagrachhari 461,230 209,790 671,020 Rangamati 410,040 231,285 21,575 662,900 Bandarban 161,228 219,954 52,852 434,034 Feni 96,088 1,491,698 1,587,786 Comilla 5,900,591 5,900,591 Noakhali 3,397,121 3,397,121 Brahamanbaria 3,111,244 3,111,244 Chandpur 2,625,897 2,625,897 Lakshmipur 1,920,990 1,920,990 Sylhet 736,610 10,030,178 10,766,788 Sylhet 419,329 3,358,453 3,777,782 Maulvibazar 317,281 1,780,921 2,098,202 Sunamganj 2,613,720 2,613,720 Habiganj 2,277,083 2,277,083 Dhaka 29,588,726 29,588,726 Dhaka 12,535,645 12,535,645 Kishoreganj 3,136,713 3,136,713 Narayanganj 3,129,018 3,129,018 Gazipur 2,724,309 2,724,309 Narsingdi 2,457,958 2,457,958 Munshiganj 1,528,106 1,528,106 Shariatpur 1,302,417 1,302,417

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

Madaripur 1,200,924 1,200,924 Netrakona 810,946 810,946 Mymensingh 383,228 383,228 Gopalganj 205,393 205,393 Faridpur 96,406 96,406 Manikganj 77,665 77,665 Barisal 8,969,075 8,969,075 Barisal 2,515,495 2,515,495 Bhola 1,947,930 1,947,930 Patuakhali 1,686,018 1,686,018 Pirojpur 1,191,882 1,191,882 Barguna 968,498 968,498 Jhalokati 659,252 659,252 Khulna 156,438 156,438 Bagerhat 156,438 156,438 Total 10,074,699 2,803,908 67,435,625 80,314,231

Sources: Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015) Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (30/05/2017)

The population exposure has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Download complete excel table from here

Bangladesh Population Living within Potential Flood Hazard Zones of 25 years return period

11,034,780 Total exposed population of Bangladesh

Population living within 25 years Division / District flood return period areas Sylhet 4,945,732 Sunamganj 1,715,073 Sylhet 2,300,443 Habiganj 634,503 Maulvibazar 295,713 Chittagong 4,631,253 Comilla 1,465,731 Chittagong 1,073,487

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1

Brahamanbaria 1,023,471 Chandpur 590,050 Feni 149,503 Noakhali 138,153 Rangamati 77,772 Cox'S Bazar 62,819 Bandarban 37,276 Khagrachhari 10,235 Lakshmipur 2,756 Dhaka 1,295,649 Kishoreganj 558,220 Dhaka 137,122 Gazipur 135,687 Narsingdi 125,734 Netrakona 102,170 Mymensingh 95,216 Narayanganj 38,413 Shariatpur 35,756 Faridpur 27,087 Madaripur 25,194 Munshiganj 11,805 Gopalganj 3,246 Barisal 162,146 Barisal 156,979 Pirojpur 5,167 Total 11,034,780

Sources: Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015) Flood Hazard Data: GAR 2015 Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (30/05/2017)

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis – Update 1