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Study on Characteristics of Future Cyclone and Associated Storm Surge Inundation Damage in Bangladesh

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Study on Characteristics of Future Cyclone and Associated Storm Surge Inundation Damage in Bangladesh 九州大学学術情報リポジトリ Kyushu University Institutional Repository Study on Characteristics of Future Cyclone and Associated Storm Surge Inundation Damage in Bangladesh モハマド, アブドゥル, アル, モヒット https://doi.org/10.15017/2534441 出版情報：九州大学, 2019, 博士（工学）, 課程博士 バージョン： 権利関係： Study on Characteristics of Future Cyclone and Associated Storm Surge Inundation Damage in Bangladesh Ph.D. Dissertation This thesis is submitted to the department of Maritime Engineering, Kyushu University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Engineering. By Md. Abdul Al Mohit Department of Maritime Engineering Graduate school of Engineering Kyushu University Fukuoka, japan June 2019 Abstract In this dissertation, the characteristics of cyclone which can strike in future due to climate change in the south-asian overpopulated country Bangladesh, has been investigated as well as the risk factors of storm surge and flood, caused by the severe cyclone have also determined. Bangladesh is one of the most affected countries as a consequence of climate change. Every year, due to different types of natural disasters thousands of people lost their lives. Among all these disasters, severe cyclone is one of them. As a result of this severe cyclone, the flood and the time afterward the flood hinder the nature. Moreover, recently, because of pogrom at least ten lakhs (one million) Rohingya refugees have taken shelter in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh is planning the migration of these Rohingyas to the newly emerged island “Bhashan Char” which is acute flood and severe cyclone prone region. Therefore, it is very much essential to know the risk factors of living congeniality in this island. In my research, for this region I have determined the alterations of the characteristics of the cyclones and also figured out the severe cyclones which can strike in future. To determine the storm surge, I have developed a non-linear numerical bay-river coupled model, which represents the accurate results. Overall, I have measured the risk factors of severe cyclones which can occurred in future in the south-east coastal part of Bangladesh like Chittagong and the new habitation of Rohingyas, also figured out the measures which can be taken by the government of Bangladesh to confront these disasters. In Chapter 1, the aim, objectives, background, and framework of the research were explained. Basically, this chapter is a general introduction chapter. In Chapter 2, reviewed the features of the storms in the Bay of Bengal such as landfall angle, Power Dissipation Index, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, cyclone genesis, seasonal activity, and so on. It is found from the analysis that the behavior of the cyclone is changeable due to climate change. The genesis of the present cyclone will move slightly upwards at lower latitudes in future. Besides, there is a seasonality of the present cyclone that will change in the future. Though the actual number of cyclone will be decreased but the accumulated cyclone energy will increase. In Chapter 3, cyclone strike rate for the Bangladesh coast and other coast of Bay of Bengal were investigated, The characteristic features of a cyclone like landfall angle, wind speed, central pressure, and translation speeds were investigated for present and future climate condition. In this analysis, it is found that the east coast of India is a prone zone for future cyclone but most of the severe cyclone strike the Bangladesh i coast. This phenomenon indicates that the east coast of India and the west part of Bangladesh will face the huge precipitation due to atmospheric depression. In Chapter 4, a non-linear bay-river coupled numerical storm surge model that incorporate the major river system of Bangladesh is developed, which can simulate the accurate results of storm surge. It is found from the analysis that the water level reduces near the junction area due to inland penetration. In the rainy season and the drought season, surge height is flactuated due to fresh water discharge through a river. In Chapter 5, FVCOM is used to simulate the surge and its associated inundation along the coast of Bangladesh. The model result is compared with the developed bay- river coupled model to find the preformance of bay-river coupled model. Both the model simulation results make a good agreement with the observed result. To find the dangerous cyclone, the cost effective bay-river coupled model is used. Finally, an inundation area is measured by FVCOM. In Chapter 6, storm surge inundation due to the future dangerous cyclone is investigated along the east zone of Bangladesh coast. The summerized characteristics of future severe cyclone were used to modify the present severe cyclone and investigate the flood risk. This study found that the future dangerous cyclone inundated 90% land of the Bhasan Char and 20% of the Chittagong airport area. This study also found that the present embankment of Bhasan Char is not suitable for flood disater prevention. This analysis of future disaster risk may helpful to the government of Bangladesh for the mitigation of future disaster risk and a good adaptation policy. In Chapter 7, the overall findings of the study were briefly summerised in this chapter. In addition, some recommendation were presented based on the limitations of this study. ii Acknowledgements First of all, I am grateful to the Almightily Allah, who keep me healthy to submit this thesis paper. I would like to express my deep gratitude and respect to my honarable supervisor Dr. Noriaki Hashimoto, Professor, Department of Maritime Engineering, Kyushu University, Japan, for his constant inspiration, invaluable advice, proper guidance, constructive criticism, stimulating discussion and valuable suggestions. My cordial thanks to him for his kindness and special support. I wish to express my respect and cordial thanks to Dr. Masaru Yamashiro, Associate Professor, Department of Maritime Engineering, Kyushu University, Japan, for providing me the necessary suggesstions, guidelines and especially for helping me to understand daily live in Japan. I am very greatful to him for his patience and gentles and precious help. Grateful thanks to my committee members, Professor Shinichiro Yano and Associate Professor Yoshinari Hiroshiro for their good examination and review on my study with their prudent knowledge. I want to mention here other two people who contributed to the work by inspiring feedback and technical support, much more thanks to Dr. Yoshihiko Ide and Mr. Mitsuyoshi Kodama. Without their great effort, it would have been quite impossible to complete this study. I would like to expresses heartfelt thanks to all students of Coastal and ocean engineering laboratory who always showed graciousness and friendship during the period of my study. Specially, I thanks to Mr. Taiki Shibata and Mr. Kazuhiro Nakatani for their help regarding laboratory activities. I acknowledge MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) for financial support and the authority of Kyushu University to give me the facility for continuing my Ph.D. research. I also acknowledge the authority of Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh to give me the permission for continuing my study in abroad. Finally, I am deeply indebted to my parents and other members of my family for their moral support, blessings and encouragement through the study. I also would pay tribute to my wife (Zannat) and my son (Sadil), who had to deal a long absence of my take care and stay lonely due to my study in abroad. Md. Abdul Al Mohit June, 2019 iii CONTENTS Page No Chapter 1: General introduction 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Study area 2 1.3 Previous study and problem identification 3 1.4 Present study with the aim 7 Chapter 2: Cyclone activity analysis under present and future climate condition 2.1 Chapter summary 8 2.2 The data 8 2.3 Activity analysis 11 2.3.1 Genesis analysis 15 2.3.2 Occurrence analysis 21 a) Yearly and monthly activity 21 b) Seasonal activity 25 c) Occurrence behavior at El Niño and La Niña 26 2.3.3 PDI and ACE Analysis 27 2.4 Conclusions 29 Chapter 3: Analysis of tropical cyclone characteristics in the Bay of Bengal 3.1 Chapter summary 30 3.2 Basic assumptions 30 3.3 Cyclone strike analysis in the Bay of Bengal 31 3.4 Cyclone strike analysis in Bangladesh coast 37 3.5 Characteristics of cyclone parameter 39 3.5.1 Central pressure 39 3.5.2 Landfall angle 41 3.5.3 Maximum sustained wind radius 43 3.5.4 Translation speed 45 3.6 Conclusions 47 Chapter 4: Development of numerical storm surge model 4.1 Chapter summary 48 4.2 Shallow water model equations 48 4.2.1 Average procedure 49 4.2.2 Vertically integrated equation 52 4.3 Boundary conditions 59 4.4 Determination of the forcing terms 61 4.5 Numerical procedure 62 iv 4.5.1 Model setup 62 4.5.2 Numerical discretization of the model 64 4.5.3 Computation process 68 4.6 Model validation and outcomes 69 4.7 Conclusions 75 Chapter 5: Comparative analysis of two numerical storm surge models 5.1 Chapter summary 76 5.2 Concept of FVCOM 76 5.3 FVCOM model equations 77 5.4 FVCOM model setup 78 5.4.1 Unstructured triangular grid 78 5.4.2 Boundary conditions 79 5.4.3 Coordinate 80 5.5 Study domain 82 5.6 Forcing factors 83 5.6.1 Atmospheric pressure 83 5.6.2 Wind profile 85 5.7 Model data 87 5.7.1 Bathymetry data and tide 87 5.8 Simulation and result discussion 89 5.9 Conclusions 95 Chapter 6: Disaster risk of future cyclone inundation 6.1 Chapter summary 96 6.2 Objective 96 6.3 Dangerous cyclone analysis 98 6.3.1 Water level elevation analysis of severe storms in 98 different conditions 6.3.2 Inundation risk analysis for different conditions 103 6.4 Conclusions 111 Chapter 7: Conclusions 112 References Appendix-1 v List of figure Page No.
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