UNOSAT Bangladesh – Tropical Cyclone Mora-17 29 May 2017

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis

Population Exposure Analysis 29 May 2017 Geneva, Switzerland

UNOSAT Contact: Postal Address: Email: [email protected] UNITAR – UNOSAT, IEH T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations) Chemin des Anémones 11, 24/7 hotline: +41 76 411 4998 CH-1219, Genève, Suisse UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis

Overview

Mora-17 is a category 1 tropical cyclone moving north, over the Indian ocean (Bay of Bengal) at a speed of about 15 km/h. Tropical cyclone Mora-17 is predicted to approach the Chittagong Division, Bangladesh on 29 May 2017 and to make landfall early morning on Cox’S Bazar and Chittagong Districts on 30 May 2017 with a maximum sustainable wind speed of 150 km/h. The tropical cyclone is then expected to move northern to the Khagrachhari District and latter reach the Sylhet Division (30 May 2017).

Based on data of the observed and predicted tropical cyclone path, wind speeds from JRC (Warning 7 issued the 29th May 2017 at 09:00 UTC), and population data from WorldPop, UNITAR-UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Bangladesh : - 14,833,447 people are living within 90km/h wind zones, and - 70,327,276 people are living within 60km/h wind zones.

Also included is an estimation of the population living within flood hazard zones from the last 25 years (GAR 2015) and exposed to winds of 60km/h and 90km/h speed in Bangladesh.

Regarding the region over 30 May to 1 June, according to the ECHO Daily Flash (29/05/2017) the coastal areas of Bangladesh and northern coastal areas of Myanmar may be affected by strong winds, storm surge and heavy rain. The northeast of India may also be affected by heavy rains, especially in the state of Assam

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis

Population exposure estimates are based on cyclone track (JRC) and WorldPop data

Population Exposure in Bangladesh

158,290,260 Total population of

Bangladesh

14,833,447 70,327,276 Total population living in Total population living in 90 km/h wind speed 60 km/h wind speed zones zones

Wind Speed zones Division / District Total 60 km/h 90 km/h Chittagong 18,209,268 12,625,873 30,835,141 Chittagong 13,380 8,000,950 8,014,330 Cox'S Bazar 2,508,425 2,508,425 Khagrachhari 670,705 670,705 Rangamati 43,404 618,664 662,069 Feni 1,149,669 437,907 1,587,576 Bandarban 44,034 388,434 432,468 Noakhali 3,395,518 788 3,396,307 Comilla 5,901,703 5,901,703 Brahamanbaria 3,112,112 3,112,112 Chandpur 2,627,120 2,627,120 Lakshmipur 1,922,328 1,922,328 Sylhet 8,651,019 2,207,574 10,858,593 Sylhet 2,564,267 1,213,503 3,777,770 Maulvibazar 1,103,571 994,071 2,097,642 Sunamganj 2,706,931 2,706,931 Habiganj 2,276,251 2,276,251 Dhaka 33,758,206 33,758,206 Dhaka 13,466,320 13,466,320 Gazipur 3,511,435 3,511,435 Kishoreganj 3,176,270 3,176,270 Narayanganj 3,126,111 3,126,111 Narsingdi 2,457,307 2,457,307 Munshiganj 1,528,024 1,528,024 Shariatpur 1,301,739 1,301,739 Madaripur 1,268,160 1,268,160 Netrakona 1,180,843 1,180,843 Mymensingh 1,002,131 1,002,131 Gopalganj 826,920 826,920

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis

Faridpur 596,840 596,840 Manikganj 316,108 316,108 Barisal 9,002,541 9,002,541 Barisal 2,515,064 2,515,064 Bhola 1,947,532 1,947,532 Patuakhali 1,685,242 1,685,242 Pirojpur 1,226,599 1,226,599 Barguna 969,051 969,051 Jhalokati 659,054 659,054 Khulna 706,242 706,242 Bagerhat 706,242 706,242 Total 70,327,276 14,833,447 85,160,724

Sources: Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015) Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (29/05/2017)

The population exposure has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Download complete excel table from here

Bangladesh Population Living within Potential Flood Hazard Zones of 25 years return period

11,672,251 Total exposed population of Bangladesh

Population living within 25 years Division / District flood return period areas Chittagong 4,631,983 Comilla 1,464,879 Chittagong 1,073,982 Brahamanbaria 1,022,920 Chandpur 591,228 Feni 149,111 Noakhali 138,849 Rangamati 77,714 Cox'S Bazar 63,077 Bandarban 37,249 Khagrachhari 10,218 Lakshmipur 2,756

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis

Sylhet 4,958,927 Sylhet 2,297,744 Sunamganj 1,730,641 Habiganj 634,862 Maulvibazar 295,681 Dhaka 1,868,058 Kishoreganj 558,072 Dhaka 220,623 Gopalganj 213,087 Mymensingh 178,015 Netrakona 156,529 Faridpur 141,422 Gazipur 140,260 Narsingdi 126,332 Narayanganj 38,335 Shariatpur 35,599 Madaripur 29,535 Manikganj 18,576 Munshiganj 11,672 Barisal 161,984 Barisal 156,919 Pirojpur 5,066 Khulna 51,298 Bagerhat 51,298 Total 11,672,251

Sources: Cyclone Track: Joint Research Center-GDACS Administrative Levels: Humanitarian Data Exchange Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPop (2015) Flood Hazard Data: GAR 2015 Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (29/05/2017)

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone Mora-17, Bangladesh | Population Exposure Analysis