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PROJECT REPORT Author Technical Support on the Elaboration of the Rural Electrification Master Plan of Jigawa State (Northern Nigeria) PROJECT REPORT Author: Manuel Villavicencio Director: Dr. Enrique Velo García Session: June 2012 Màster Interuniversitari UB-UPC d’Enginyeria en Energia Màster Interuniversitari UB-UPC d’Enginyeria en Energia Sol·licitud d’acceptació de presentació del Projecte Final de Màster i sol·licitud de defensa pública. Alumne: Manuel Villavicencio DNI: Y-0717761-Z Títol: Director: Prof. Enric Velo Acceptació de la presentació del projecte: Confirmo l’acceptació de la presentació del Projecte Final de Màster. Per a que consti, Cognoms, nom (director del Projecte) Sol·licito: La defensa pública del meu Projecte Final de Màster. Per a que consti, Manuel Daniel Villavicencio Rojas Barcelona, ........ de .............. de ....... Màster Interuniversitari UB-UPC d’Enginyeria en Energia Acta d’Avaluació de Projecte Curs: Codi UPC: 33563 Data defensa: Qualificació: Alumne: Manuel Villavicencio DNI: Y-0717761-Z Títol: Technical support for the elaboration of the Jigawa State`s electrification master plan Director: Prof. Enric Velo Director: Ponent: Tribunal President: Vocals: Suplents: Observacions Signatura Convocatòria Ordinària, Convocatòria Extraordinària, Cognoms, nom (President) Cognoms, nom (President) Cognoms, nom (Vocal) Cognoms, nom (Vocal) Cognoms, nom (Vocal) Cognoms, nom (Vocal) SUPPORT FOR THE ELABORATION OF THE MASTER PLAN FOR THE JIGAWA STATE ELECTRIFICATION ENGR. MANUEL VILLAVICENCIO ABSTRACT Jigawa State, with a rural population of 85% and 20% of electricity access among other basic services deficiencies, is one of the poorest states of Nigeria The electrification targets of the state were assessed from a decentralized approach. Solar potential, biomass residues and Jatropha Curcas harvest are the main local resources to be considered for power generation. It was found that a fuel diversified strategy, considering local available resources, represent a more feasible and ecological alternative than the current strategy based on increasing on-grid diesel capacity, and also improve security against fuel price volatility and eventual supply contingencies. SUPPORT FOR THE ELABORATION OF THE MASTER PLAN FOR THE JIGAWA STATE ELECTRIFICATION ENGR. MANUEL VILLAVICENCIO ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Special thanks to my family and friends who have been extremely supportive, remarkably enthusiast and uniquely kind to me during my stay in Barcelona. I would like to thank my live girlfriend for her moral support and her understanding regarding to me while spending long working hours in front of the computer. I would like to thank the work team conformed by my professor Enric Velo, my co- director Engr. David Vilar and my team partner and high level assessor PhD. Alejandro Blanco Romero, for their wise supervision and advices on the realization of this project. Finally, I am in debt to all the people that directly or indirectly have helped me in the elaboration of this project. SUPPORT FOR THE ELABORATION OF THE MASTER PLAN FOR THE JIGAWA STATE ELECTRIFICATION ENGR. MANUEL VILLAVICENCIO TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES 8 LIST OF TABLES 9 ACRONYMS 11 INTRODUCTION 12 OBJECTIVES 14 GENERAL OBJECTIVE 14 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES 14 CHAPTER 1. NIGERIA AND JIGAWA STATE OVERVIEW 15 1.1. BRIEF NIGERIA PROFILE 15 1.1.1. POLITICS 15 1.1.2. ECONOMY 17 1.1.3. ENERGY & ELECTRICITY BRIEF 19 1.1.4. SOCIAL ISSUES 22 1.2. JIGAWA STATE PROFILE 24 1.2.1. TOPOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE 24 1.2.2. POPULATION 26 1.2.3. SOCIOECONOMIC VALUATION 26 1.2.4. SOCIOPOLITICAL DESCRIPTION 29 1.2.5. ECONOMICAL PANORAMA 30 1.2.6. POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS 32 CHAPTER 2. CURRENT STATUS OF THE ENERGY SECTOR: JIGAWA STATE IN PERSPECTIVE 33 2.1. ENERGY STATUS 33 2.1.1. OIL & LIQUIDS FUELS 33 2.1.2. GAS 34 2.1.3. OTHERS ENERGIES 34 2.1.4. ELECTRICITY 35 2.2. ENERGY PROJECTIONS 36 2.3. ENERGY POLICIES AND FRAMEWORK 41 CHAPTER 3. RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PLANNING: METHODOLOGY PRESENTATION 43 3.1. PLANNING SCHEMES FOR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 43 3.1.1. DEP METHODOLOgY PRESENTATION 43 3.2. METHODOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION 47 3.2.1. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN 48 3.2.2. GIS IMPLEMENTATION 49 CHAPTER 4. POWER SECTOR ASSESSMENT OF JIGAWA STATE 52 4.1. ELECTRICITY DEMAND ESTIMATION 52 4.1.1. HOUSEHOLDS (HH) 54 4.1.2. PUBLIC FACILITIES (PF), BUSINESS ENTITIES (BE) AND HAMMER MILLS (HM) 55 4.1.3. AGGREGATED POWER DEMAND SCENARIOS 56 4.2. LOCAL ENERGY RESOURCES AND FACILITIES CHARACTERIZATION 58 SUPPORT FOR THE ELABORATION OF THE MASTER PLAN FOR THE JIGAWA STATE ELECTRIFICATION ENGR. MANUEL VILLAVICENCIO 4.2.1. ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION gRID: STATUS AND ACCESSIBILITY 58 4.2.2. WIND POTENTIAL 59 4.2.3. SOLAR POTENTIAL 60 4.2.4. BIOMASS POTENTIAL 61 4.2.5. BIOFUELS: BIODIESEL FROM JATROPHA CURCA 64 4.3. POWER SUPPLY OPTIMIZATION ANALYSIS 65 4.3.1. SIMULATION METHODOLOgY 65 4.3.2. SIMULATION RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 69 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 82 BIBLIOGRAPHY 85 RELEVANT VISITED WEBSITES 88 ANNEX I 89 A. SOLAR BASED ELECTRIFICATION PROJECTS. 89 ANNEX II 91 A. ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY NEEDS ESTIMATIONS 91 B. METEOROLOGICAL COMPLEMENTARY INFORMATION. 96 C. SOLAR POTENTIAL COMPLEMENTARY INFORMATION. 98 D. BIOMASS POTENTIAL COMPLEMENTARY INFORMATION. 99 ANNEX III 100 A. POWER SYSTEMS COSTS 100 B. POWER OPTIMIZATION INPUTS 101 C. AC LOAD: 10% - LOAD 2012 101 D. AC LOAD: 50% - LOAD 2020 102 E. GENERATOR: BLEND DIESEL/BIODIESEL 103 F. AC GENERATOR: GASIFICATION FRACTION 103 G. PV & CONVERTER SYSTEMS 104 H. SOLAR RESOURCE 104 SUPPORT FOR THE ELABORATION OF THE MASTER PLAN FOR THE JIGAWA STATE ELECTRIFICATION ENGR. MANUEL VILLAVICENCIO LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Geopolitical map of Nigeria. .................................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 2. Ethnic groups. Secondary source: BBC News Africa. .................................................................................................. 16 Figure 3. Nigeria historic GDP at constant price (Billion of US $, 2000). Source: Tradingeconomics.com/Nigeria. ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 4. Nigeria wealth distribution. Secondary source: BBC News Africa. ....................................................................... 18 Figure 5. a) Nigeria GDP historic growth and projections. Source: Perspectives économiques en Afrique 2011. b) Evolution of the Nigeria share of incomes. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria – Annual report 2010. .................. 19 Figure 6. Indicator of energy crisis in Nigeria 1970 -2004. Source: (Iwayemi, 2008) ...................................................... 20 Figure 7. a) Electric power generation historic in Nigeria. b) Nigeria power system composition 2010. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria – Annual report 2010. ................................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 9. Geopolitical map of Jigawa State. Self Elaboration ..................................................................................................... 24 Figure 10. Croplands of Jigawa State. Self Elaboration ................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 12. Top 10 Business environment constraints 2007. Source: Enterprise Surveys, The World Bank. .......... 36 Figure 12. a) GDP grow effect based in the assumptions. b) Diversification effect. Source: (Sambo, Iloeje, Ojosu, Olayande, & Yusuf, 2005). .......................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 13. Trends in Final Commercial Energy Demand. Source: (Sambo, Iloeje, Ojosu, Olayande, & Yusuf, 2005). .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 Figure 14. Trends in Electricity Demand. Source: (Sambo, Iloeje, Ojosu, Olayande, & Yusuf, 2005). ........................ 38 Figure 15. Electricity lines of Jigawa State. Self Elaboration ..................................................................................................... 39 Figure 16. Continental view of the GIS elaborated for electrification project of Jigawa State. Self Elaboration 50 Figure 17. Local view of the GIS elaborated for electrification project of Jigawa State. ............................................... 51 Figure 18. Rural growth centers (RGC) examples of Jigawa State ........................................................................................... 53 Figure 19. RGC distribution over Jigawa State by local government area ........................................................................... 53 Figure 20. Range of load estimations by 2012. ................................................................................................................................. 57 Figure 21. Range of load estimations by 2020. ................................................................................................................................. 58 Figure 22. Influence area of the electricity grid. Self elaboration ............................................................................................ 59 Figure 23. Yearly
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