Outcome Analysis Results Nigeria 2013 Funded by: FEBRUARY 2013 ECHO Jennifer Bush, FEG Consultant The Outcome Analysis Team Participants Position Taiye Barbarinsa Field Manager, Gusau, SCI Zamfara Isa Ibrahim Field Supervisor, Maru, SCI Zamfara Shehu A Abubaican ADP Zamfara Babatunde Lawani M&E Advisor, Gusau, SCI Zamfara Nelson Barde Food & Livelihoods Security (FLS) Programme, Daura, SCI Katsina Ismail Muhammad M&E FSL Programme, Daura, SCI Katsina Mustapha Shehu M&E Advisor, ACF International, Jigawa State Auwalu M. Bello Budget & Economic Planning Directorate Dutse, Jigawa State Facilitator Jennifer Bush FEG (Food Economy Group) Consultant Advisor Amadou Diop SCI Regional Office, Dakar ______________________________________________________________________________ The Currency Rate: At the time of the outcome analysis, value of the Nigerian Naira was NGN 150 = USD $1. Photo Credits: The photograph on the cover page was taken in Jigawa State @ by Auwalu Bello, December 2012. Data Credits: All the food, income and expenditure data graphed in the report is from primary field work carried out in November-December 2012. Production and price data used in the outcome analysis is from the Zamfara State ADP, Katsina State ADP and Jigawa State ADP (JARDA). Some price data was collected by the analysis team from Gusau (Zamfara), Daura (Katsina) and Hadejia (Jigawa) markets. ______________________________________________________________________________ 2 | P a g e Livelihood Zone Map of Northern Nigeria (Source: FEWS NET) Hadejia Valley Mixed Economy Zone Millet and Sesame Zone Cotton, Groundnut and Mixed Cereals Zone Zone 3 | P a g e 2013 Outcome Analysis Results, 3 Livelihood Zones, Nigeria Summary of the Findings In Katsina, the staple is millet. In Jigawa, the staple is maize. Summary of Outcome Analysis Results by Wealth Group and by Livelihood Zone 2. The April analysis should also apply updated CGC HVM MAS dry season production figures in the Hadejia Initial food Valley (Jigawa) Zone. deficit: 19% V.Poor No deficit No final deficit No deficit Initial food 3. With ADP partners, jointly develop a schedule deficit: 17% to run an outcome analysis twice a year using Poor No deficit No final deficit No deficit annual ADP production and price data. The goal Initial food deficit: 22% is to use the analysis for early warning and Middle No deficit No final deficit No deficit preparedness. The first analysis should be post- Better-off No deficit No deficit No deficit harvest in December (or as soon as the data is available). The revised analysis should be in The results from the outcome analysis show April once the rainy season is underway and the that there is no need for emergency food or dry season crops are harvested. cash interventions to meet acute needs. In the Hadejia Valley Mixed Economy (HVM) Zone, 4. Update population estimates disaggregated own crop consumption drops significantly due by rural / urban population. These figures are to flood impacts leaving an initial food deficit of required to accurately calculate assistance 17-22% of annual food needs and affecting needs in the event of a survival or livelihood very poor, poor and middle-income households. protection deficit. Note that the very poor and poor households alone comprise an estimated 58% of the What are the survival and livelihood protection population in the livelihood zone (which thresholds? Measuring food and income comprises 7 LGAs of Jigawa State). However, deficits in HEA. price dynamics will benefit farmers who choose HEA analysis is designed to measure whether to sell their crops. Hence, by switching all rice, households in a certain area fall below survival wheat, pulses and market vegetables from or livelihood protection thresholds. The survival consumption to sale, and by using that income threshold represents a survival food minimum to purchase cheaper grains, households will be (2100 kcals per person per day) as well as the able to cover the initial food deficit created basic non-food costs of preparing food. The from harvest shortfalls and flood damage. livelihood protection threshold represents the cost required to maintain livelihoods at the Recommendations: baseline level. As the livelihood status of the very poor and the poor falls below USD 1 pppd, 1. Jointly run a second analysis in April with this is clearly not a development goal. Instead, government staff from the ADP in each state it is meant to help planners decide whether using updated prices for staple food and labour there is need for an emergency intervention and wage rages. In Zamfara, the staple is sorghum. if so, how much food or cash is needed for how many people and for how long. 4 | P a g e Background and Methodology There are four main steps in an HEA outcome analysis. (1) Problem Specification: quantify the From 25 February to 1 March, SCI organised an change in production and prices from the HEA Outcome Analysis Training for relevant reference year to the current year. (2) Define staff in their Zamfara and Katsina State the Expandability Factors: quantify (i.e., as a programmes. They were joined by partner staff percentage of the baseline level) to what extent from ACF International in Jigawa State as well as households can cope with a shock by expanding by two government counterparts from ADP certain food or income sources. “Expandability” Zamfara and the Budget & Economic Planning also includes the option of switching high value Directorate, Jigawa State. All the workshop crops out of consumption and into sale. (3) participants had undergone the HEA Baseline Define the Intervention Thresholds. This step Assessment training in November 2012. The involves deciding which items go into the baseline training event was followed by survival non-food basket and which items go practical field work to collect household food, into the livelihood protection basket (and at income and expenditure data by wealth group. what level of baseline expenditure). (4) Run the These three elements, together with an asset Outcome Analysis. profile, form the basis of the HEA baseline assessment. The baseline data was used in the The HEA Outcome Analysis is designed to assess outcome analysis training as the reference year both an initial deficit as well as a final deficit. (1) data against which to measure current year The Initial Deficit is the impact of the hazard on changes. Note that the reference year was not household food and income without accounting the same year in each zone (see page 8). for household coping. (2) The Final Deficit or Outcome is the impact of the hazard on Data for this study focuses on three livelihood household food and income with coping. This zones. A FEWS NET exercise in 2007 identified deficit is measured either as a survival deficit or 44 livelihood zones across the 15 states of as a livelihood protection deficit. A survival northern Nigeria. Livelihood zones themselves deficit means that total household resources are geographical areas in which households (food + income) are insufficient to meet annual roughly share the same production and income household survival needs. This means that options, as well as similar market access. The households do not have the resources to meet outcome analysis covers the following three their staple food costs in the current year nor zones: (1) Cotton, Groundnut, and Mixed prepare the food. A livelihood protection Cereals (CGC) Livelihood Zone in Zamfara State; deficit means that total resources are (2) Millet and Sesame (MAS) Zone in Katsina insufficient to cover both livelihood State; and (3) Hadejia Valley Mixed Economy expenditures and survival costs. Households 1 (HVM) Zone in Jigawa State. See the livelihood may have enough to meet their survival needs zone map on page 3. but income is insufficient to pay for necessary livelihood inputs as well as school fees and medicine. The thresholds are meant to prevent 1 LGAs in the Zamfara CGC Zone include: Bungudu, Gusau, Maru and Tsafe. LGAs in Jigawa HVM Zone include: Kafin Hausa; Guri, In Katsina MAS Zone, only Daura LGA was covered Kiri Kasamma, Auyo, Malam Madori, Kaugama, and during field work. Biriniwa. 5 | P a g e households from becoming worse off in the harvest is March. In all three zones, livestock current year compared to the reference year. production supplements agriculture. They represent emergency thresholds, not The main elements of the three zones’ development goals economies are summarised below. The current year for this outcome analysis is the period covering September 2012 to August Cotton, Groundnuts and Mixed Cereals ZAMFARA State 2013. As such, it comprises the “consumption” Livestock Cattle, goats, sheep, poultry year for rain-fed crop-based economies which Crops Rain-fed: sorghum, millet, in northern Nigeria begin with the harvest in maize, groundnuts, soybeans, September and end in August at the end of the cowpeash “lean season”. As the current year is not yet Dry-season: rice, market over, the outcome analysis is a projection of vegetables emergency needs for the coming year and, in Cash Crops Cotton particular, the upcoming lean season (June- Income Livestock sales, crop sales, casual labour, firewood sales, August). If there were a food gap, it would petty trade, milk sales typically emerge during that period. Other Sales of baobab leaves, moringa, hibiscus, shea nut Overview of the Livelihood Zones The three livelihood zones are primarily Millet and Sesame agricultural supporting a wide variety of rain- KATSINA State fed crops suited to dryland areas including Livestock Cattle, goats, sheep, poultry millet, sorghum, maize, cowpeas, groundnuts, Food crops Millet, sorghum, cowpeas sesame, cotton as well as (increasingly) Cash crops sesame soybeans.2 Rain-fed agriculture is carried out Income Livestock sales, milk sales, crops sales, agricultural labour, during the single rainy season which runs from construction labour, petty trade, April/May to October. The peak months of firewood sales rainfall are June to August.