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Weather Influence on Diseases Prevalence in Arkhangelsk Region

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Weather Influence on Diseases Prevalence in Arkhangelsk Region The 9 th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications 21-23 September, 2017, Bucharest, Romania Weather influence on diseases prevalence in Arkhangelsk region Darina Lagunova 1, Alexey Lagunov 2, George Martinov 3 1 Medical Information and Analytical Center Lomonosova Str., 311, Arkhangelsk, Russia, 163045, [email protected], http://miac29.ru 2,3 Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov Severnaya Dvina Emb. 17, Arkhangelsk, Russia, 163002, [email protected], www.narfu.ru Abstract — Literature analysis shows existence of data cardiovascular system, population face a problem of food about weather influence on man’s diseases. Selection of freshness and risk of acute intestinal infections. In diseases in Arkhangelsk region from multifunctional addition, risk of changes in local ecosystems in case of information system was made. Analysis of people prevalence migration of new to our territories carriers of infectious in several human settlements of Arkhangelsk region by diseases raises. Rural settlements with unstable means of means of statistic methods was conducted. The analysis demonstrated dependence of people prevalence on weather communication are exposed to the greatest risk. conditions as follows: a number of diseases grow with Arkhangelsk region is a Northern territory of Russia temperature decreasing; the same goes for increasing of that accumulates a combination of different risk factors humidity especially for the group gr11sub3 (“Other diseases such as climatic, natural and geographical, ethnic, of digestive organs”); the more cloudiness the more environmental, and social. prevalence. A difference between South and North regions is Climate change is accompanied by change in the also of interest. In comparison with Yarensk region, dynamics of natural hazard repetitions which can have Holmogory region has increasing of factor A (“Index of unobvious latent nonlinear nature [3]. Territories of magnetic field storminess”) influence for subgroup gr6sub3 Arkhangelsk region and Nenetsk Autonomous Region are (“Other nervous system disorders”) and group10 (“Respiratory organs diseases”) (correlation coefficient is exposed to extreme hydro-meteorological conditions, negative). directly or indirectly affecting human health, such as extreme frosts, heavy precipitation in form of rain, strong Keywords — information technology, method of statistical winds, river floods during high-water periods. tests, modeling, operations, optimality criterion, computer, Long lasting frosts (of duration more than 3 days with computer model, statistics, analysis, heuristic method, minimum temperatures below -35°C) and extremely low software, expert estimates, human, meteorotropic reactions, temperatures (below -45°C) are the most specific for the meteosensivity, prevalence Eastern half of the Arkhangelsk region and continental areas of Nenetsk Autonomous Region. Annually there are I. INTRODUCTION from 6 to 10 days in a row with frosts of below -35°C. Global climate change of the planet, along with such Extremely low temperatures are repeated 1 time in 2 years threats to international security as nuclear disaster, on average and most typical for Jan–Feb. terrorism, cybercrime, environmental and financial- Strong winds associated with the release of deep economic crises are a new challenge to humanity at the cyclones are most frequently observed on the coasts of the turn of XX–XXI centuries [1]. Problems emerging due to seas and on the territory of Nenetsky Autonomous Region the impact of temperature waves in the circumpolar where the recurrence of this dangerous phenomenon can region, especially ones close to the Arctic, reach up to 3.5 days a year. A special place among strong bioecosociosphere and public health are of special concern winds is for gusts and tornadoes because of being largely of all social institutions of a society [2]. sudden and possessing great destructive power, bringing The natural environment in the North has its own tangible damage to the economy and population of the specific features, characterised by unfavourable climatic affected regions. They are typical for the South-Eastern conditions, heliocosmic influence, low ecological part of Arkhangelsk region and most often they occur in capacity, peculiarities of flora and fauna. July. The most evident negative effect on humans and There is a strategy of adaptation to climate change surrounding environment is caused by cyclic heat-and- impact on population health for Arkhangelsk region and cold waves and abnormal rises in temperature reaching Nenetsk Autonomous Region, Russian Federation [4]. 30°C and above. Apart from deterioration of the health of Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. vulnerable people with diseases of respiratory and Lomonosov along with colleagues from Umea University, Sweden work on a joint project CLINF: Climate-change ET depends on all meteorological elements and their effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and the equilibrium: for instance, at high humidity and high impacts on Northern societies [5]. Project aims: temperature ET should be higher than the observed assessment of climate change impact on geographical temperature, and at heavy wind, low temperature and high distribution and epidemiology of diseases sensitive to humidity the ET will be considerably lower than climate (CSIs), assessment of consequences for the Arctic observations (Table I). region population’s health, economic and communities. A human is very sensitive to climate change what TABLE I. EFFECTIVE TEMPERATURE AT DIFFERENT WIND SPEED becomes a severe problem for some people. This problem Wind speed, Temperature, °C solvation requires research of climate impact on human’s m/s health. Data accumulation is done in an information Calm 1 -3 -9 -15 -20 -26 -31 system. Data processing is done by means of 2-4 -1 -6 -12 -17 -23 -28 -34 6-7 -9 -17 -23 -31 -40 -45 -53 mathematical methods. Objective of this work: creation of 10-11 -17 -20 -28 -37 -45 -53 -62 comfortable conditions for a specific human to work and 15-16 -20 -23 -34 -40 -51 -59 -67 live (aptitude and adaptation) in Arkhangelsk region. Researchers from the USA noted in their work a detrimental effect of prolonged exposure to cold II. METEOSENSITIVE HUMAN ’S REACTIONS temperatures with high humidity on the morbidity rate of The homoeostasis nature of living beings is respiratory system, which is typical for the Arkhangelsk characterized by the functional and dynamic properties of region, which is located in the area of rugged thermal an organism. These properties depend on adaptability of conditions [7]. the latter to the living conditions, i.e., the dynamic unity Humidity greatly affects the body along with and equilibrium, which a living organism and the temperature. At high air humidity the risk of airborne environment with its many factors are in. The main infection increases. The atmosphere of Arkhangelsk environmental factors determining a homoeostasis are region is characterized by low air temperatures at high atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity, luminosity, humidity. natural magnetic and electric fields which form a complex In addition to basic meteorological parameters, health which is included in the concept of weather conditions of and well-being are affected by: solar activity, the environment. electromagnetic properties of the atmosphere, atmospheric Meteosensitivity (Meteotropic) is dependence of the electricity, air ionization, oxygen presence in air. organism’s physiological state on the weather and separate They are not always associated with climatic factors meteorological factors (pressure, magnetic field, etc.). and some of them are independent agents that can cause Sevostyanova E., Hasnulin V. noted the impact of meteosensitive reactions of humans. changes in atmospheric pressure on increasing number of In the period of solar and magnetic storms there are diseases of respiratory and cardiovascular system [6]. additional currents which lead to disruption of some Temperature plays an important role in the processes physiological functions, increased incidents of heart of heat exchange of a human. A term “termoregulation of attacks and sudden demise. a human body” includes maintenance constant body With the passage of atmospheric fronts atmosphere temperature (homothermy) with ambient temperature electric field changes along with altering in pressure. In changing. Keeping an average body temperature, which is this case electric field may equal to 1500 V/m what approximately equal to 36.5 °C, is provided in different exceeds the norm at the earth's surface 10 times. ways: evaporation, radiation, convection, thermal Accordingly, that leads to increasing number of visits for conduction. medical care, especially among patients suffering from Body temperature control is carried out automatically, cardiovascular diseases. without any additional effort or discomfort, only in the There is an exacerbation of nervous and mental comfort zone that is in a certain range of the surrounding diseases in extreme weather conditions. Sudden cold, hot air temperature. weather, high speed winds, high solar radiation intensity, The upper and lower limits of the temperature the passage of atmospheric fronts and infrasonic constituting the comfort zone form “critical temperatures”, vibrations occurring at the same time increase the but depending on people they can vary greatly. The mean excitability
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