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The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment Without Public The Natural Resources Trap Private Investment without Public Commitment edited by William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England ( 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any elec- tronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. For information about special quantity discounts, please e-mail special_sales@mitpress .mit.edu This book was set in Palatino on 3B2 by Asco Typesetters, Hong Kong. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The natural resources trap : private investment without public commitment / edited by William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-262-01379-6 (hbk. : alk. paper) 1. Natural resources—Government policy. 2. Natural resources—Law and legislation. 3. Investments, Foreign. 4. Public—private sector cooperation. I. Hogan, William W. II. Sturzenegger, Federico. HC85.N36 2010 333.7—dc22 2009029574 10987654321 Index Adelman, Morris A., 18, 429, 461n28 Venezuela and, 415, 437–438, 442–444, Adler, Michael, 97 448–452, 455–458, 463n45 Agency issues Arellano, Cristina, 77 contract theory, 63–65 Argentina, xii, 7, 34, 36, 338, 368, 416 GRAB function and, 199, 220 Administrative Emergency Law and, 387 oil production contracts and, 229–231, Alsogaray, Alvaro, and, 389–390 235, 237–238, 247, 249–252, 256–261 betrayal and, 383–394, 407 Aghion, Philippe, xii, 20, 47–67 California Argentina and, 374–375, 380, Aguiar, Mark, 77 383 Ahmed, Faisal, 73 Comodoro Rivadavia oil field and, 376 Ahmed, Rafiq, 23, 27 corruption in, 387–389 Albuquerque, Rui, 72, 107n1 credibility and, 385 Alchian, Armen, 414 delegative democracy and, 385–386 Alesina, Alberto, 121–123, 156 ENARSA and, 340 Alesina-Angeletos model expropriation and, 373, 379 ability shock and, 130–132 Frondizi, Arturo and, 370, 375–377, 380– Condorcet winner and, 133, 136 386, 390 fairness and, 130–137 gas-bubble effect and, 335 income distribution and, 130–137 Gas del Estado and, 378 luck shock and, 130–132 Huergo letter and, 390–391 Alfaro, Laura, 73 Hydrocarbons Law and, 377–378 Algeria, 454 hyperinflation of, 34, 377–378, 381, 383 Allende, Salvador, 161 Illia, Arturo and, 376–377 Al Quarashi, Zayed A., 27 industrial development in, 372–375 Amador, Manuel, 24, 72 institutional fragility and, 387–389 Ameriven, 439, 443 international influences and, 370–371, Angeletos, George-Marios, 121–123, 155– 380, 383–387, 390–391, 405–407 159 La Plata refinery and, 372 Angevine, Gerry, 451, 463n40 Menem, Carlos and, 377–388, 392 Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 487 Mining Code and, 369 Angola, 490 National Constitution and, 373–374 Arab-Israeli War, 435, 473 nationalization and, 369–370, 373, 375, Arbitration, 55 379, 389–392, 399n75, 406–407 host country (HC)/multinational corpo- oil tax increase and, 4 rations (MNCs) relationship and, 4, 10, Palacios, Alfredo and, 392 19, 23, 27–29, 35, 38nn9,10 Patagonia and, 335, 369 oil production contracts and, 262 Peronism and, 370–375, 380–384, 388, 392 500 Index Argentina (cont.) Bell, Simon, 18 pipeline investment and, 379 Bellman equation, 236 privatization and, 369–372, 377–383, Be´nabou, Roland, 121 397n44, 398nn62,63,68, 400n82, 406–407 Benjamin, David, 77 production-sharing agreements (PSAs) Berger, Klaus Peter, 27–28 and, 374–375 Betancourt, Romulo, 429, 431 profit issues and, 375, 407 Bindemann, Kirsten, 10–11, 17 radicalism and, 375, 391–392 Bin Laden, Osama, 492 reform crisis and, 380–383 Blake, Andon J., 14–15 right-wing and, 120 Blitzer, Charles R., 16–17 royalties and, 372, 378, 391 Boadway, Robin, 166–167 sovereign theft and, 375–377 Bohn, Henning, 166, 198 Standard Oil and, 372–375, 388, 390 Bolivia, xi–xii, 7, 34–36, 450 Wells’ commentary and, 405–407 E&P investment and, 337 Yacimentos Petrolı´feros Fiscales (YPF) ENARSA agreement and, 340, 355nn30,32 and, 372, 375–378, 380–381, 384, 387, expropriation and, 332 390, 399 Gas Sales Agreement and, 337–338 Yrigoyen, Hipo´lito and, 391 gas-war strategies and, 339–340 Arrow, Kenneth, 214 holdup and, 52 Asian crisis, 112 hydrocarbon reform/counterreform and, Asset specificity, 52–54 334–340, 346–348, 350–351 Association agreements (AAs) Law 1194 and, 331, 334, 341–342, 360 extra heavy oil strategic, 457–458 Law 1689 and, 331, 335–336, 339, 341– Venezuela and, 439–452, 457–458 342 Atsegbua, Lawrence, 28 Law 3058 and, 332, 340 Auctions MMBTU changes and, 342, 348 Bolivia and, 337 nationalization and, 4, 146, 340, 352n2, cost-plus regulation and, 260 354n24, 359, 366–368 deadweight loss and, 280–281 Natural Gas Purchase Agreement and, expropriations and, 36, 229, 265 334 operational service agreements and, 454– oil production contracts and, 230 456 optimal resource extraction contracts optimal resource extraction contracts and, and, 162 163–167, 175–180, 184–185, 190–191 privatization and, 335 price renegotiation and, 32 profit issues and, 334, 340–345, 349, profit caps and, 224n1 353n12, 355nn27,28 pure, 14 property rights and, 339–340 regulatory asset base and, 313 revenue performance and, 340–345 royalty/tax (R/T) systems and, 11 reversion process in, 331–332 tax revenues and, 16, 18, 262n7 right-wing reformists and, 120 Venezuela and, 428, 438–440, 446, 454– royalties and, 331–344, 349, 352nn4,5,6, 456, 459 353nn12,13, 355nn26,27,28, 356n36 Australia, 162 Sanchez de Lozada, Gonzalo, and, 366 Austria, 296–297 street protests in, 338–339 Averch, Harvey, 301–302 sunk costs and, 332, 347, 359 Averch-Johnson effect, 301 supply response and, 337–338 Axis of Weasel, 490 Supreme Decree 24806 and, 339 Azerbaijan, 4 Supreme Decree 28701 and, 331, 340 tax regime role and, 361, 364–366 Bank of England, 310 War of the Pacific and, 338 Baunsgaard, Thomas, 2, 11, 14, 16–17 YPFB and, 331, 334–335, 339–340, Beers, David T., 97 352nn3,5,7,8, 353n11, 355nn30,32 Index 501 Bolivian National Congress, 331 China, 24, 65, 454, 488–489 Bolton, Patrick, 19, 26 Chorn, Larry G., 30 Bonus bidding, 16–17 CIA, 487 Borges, Jorge Luis, 119 CITGO, 438 Bowman, Karlyn, 123 Clark, Ephraim, 30, 265 BP, 443, 449, 487 Clinton administration, 64–65 Brady bonds, 70 Coale, Margarita T.B., 27 Brazil, 394, 415, 490 Cobb-Douglas production function, 83– Brennan, Michael J., 30, 265 84 British Gas, 309, 316 Cohen, Daniel, 22 British National Oil Company (BNOC), Cole, Harold L., 23, 25, 70, 72–73, 83 316 Colonialism, 1 British Telecom, 295 Communism, 119, 375, 409, 426 Britoil, 316 Comodoro Rivadavia oil field, 376 Broner, Fernando, 74 Concession contracts, 3, 23, 487 Brown, Cedric, 309 Argentina and, 372–378, 387–391, Brown, E. Cary, 15 398nn60,62,63, 399n75 Brown taxes, 15–16 GRAB function and, 205–209, 212–214, Bulgaria, 70 218, 222 Bulow, Jeremy, 22–23, 25, 72–73 international oil company (IOC) and, 48– Bunn, Derek W., 30 49 Butler, Smedley, 66 optimal resource extraction contracts and, 186 Cairo Gentlemen’s Agreement, 470 petroleum contracts and, 47–52, 57–58, Caldera, Rafael, 433–434, 436–437 60n7, 262 California Argentina, 374–375, 380, 383 sovereign theft and, 98 Cambridge Energy Research Associates, United Kingdom and, 338, 360–361, 367 452, 454 Venezuela and, 410, 412, 417–437, 460n16, Cameron, Bruce, 451, 463n40 462nn31,32, 468–472 Canada, 376, 454 Condorcet winner, 133, 136 Alberta, 4, 409, 489–490 Conoco-Phillips, 439, 443–444, 448–451 Axis of Weasel and, 490 Constant relative risk aversion (CRRA), 83 increased royalties and, 162 Contracts nationalization of oil and, 4 agency problems and, 63–65 royalties and, 489–490 arbitration and, 4, 10, 19, 23, 27–29, 35, Canovas, Guillermo, 382 38nn9,10, 55, 262, 415, 437–438, 442– Capital expenditure (CAPEX) costs, 296, 444, 448–452, 455–458, 463n45 298, 303–308, 312–314, 317–318 association agreements (AAs) and, 439– Carbon capture and storage (CCS) indus- 452, 457–458 try, 316 available institutional knowledge and, Ca´rdenas, La´zaro, 197 414 Carey, John M., 387, 398n62 Bolivia and, 331–368 Castillo, Fernando Candia, 359–367 bonus bidding and, 16–17 Castro, Cipriano, 418 case studies of, 33–35 (see also specific Cerro Negro, 439, 443, 448 country) Chambers, John, 97 commitment and, 293, 309, 313 Charity model, 124–126 complexity and, 26–29, 35–36 Cha´vez, Hugo, 409, 441–442, 449, 452 concession, 3, 23 (see also Concession Che, Jiahua, 198 contracts) Che, Yeon-Koo, 20 enforceability and, 54–56 (see also Chevron, 374, 439, 443, 449 Enforceability) Chile, 162, 338, 379, 415 equity, 70, 78, 84, 86, 96, 102, 115, 117 502 Index Contracts (cont.) Contract theory, xii ex ante price caps and, 293–304, 307–308, allocation of costs and benefits, 10–18 325–329, 336 changing allotment methods and, 9 ex post interventions and, 294–295, 298– credibility and, xiii–xiv (see also 308, 311–317, 326, 329 Credibility) ex post uncertainty and, 56–59 governance models and, 10 first-best, 75–76 inflexibility and, 9–10 fiscal stability and, 414 lack of single model for, xii governance models and, 26–29 obsolescing bargains and, 9 grievance and, 56–59 populist pressures and, 2–3 (see also heterogeneous agents and, 414 Populism) historical similarity in, 10–11 risk allocation and, 3, 10–18, 20, 30, 47, holdup problem and, 9, 18–20, 222, 340, 301 (see also Risk) 347, 352n2 COPEL, 433 joint ventures and, 11, 14, 47, 49, 231, Corneo, Giacomo, 123 235, 251, 339–340, 410, 434, 437–443, Corporacio´n Venezolana de Petro´leo 458–459, 462nn31,37 (CVP), 472 moral hazard and,
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