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Background Report

Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report

Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham by IBI Group and Parsons January 2018 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Table of Contents

1 Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Objectives ...... 1 1.2 Transportation Directions ...... 2 Guiding Principles ...... 2 Transportation Directions ...... 2 1.3 Network Development Approach ...... 4 1.4 Municipal Class EA Process ...... 4 1.5 Report Structure ...... 4

2 Background ...... 6 2.1 Durham Region Transportation Planning Model (DRTPM) ...... 6 2.2 Existing Road Network ...... 6 2.3 Road Network Expansion ...... 9 2.4 Travel Trends ...... 11 2.4.1 Self-Containment ...... 11 2.4.2 Mode Share ...... 13 2.4.3 Auto Ownership ...... 14 2.5 Existing Road Network Performance ...... 15 2.6 Natural and Built Environment ...... 17 2.7 Summary and Implications for Road Network Development ...... 19

3 Future Transportation Needs and Opportunities ...... 20 3.1 Population and Employment Growth ...... 20 3.2 2031 Travel Demand ...... 22 3.3 2031 Travel Patterns ...... 22 3.4 Commentary on Needs by Area ...... 24

January 2018 i IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Table of Contents (continued)

4 Development of the 2031 Network ...... 26 4.1 Approach for Integrated Network Development ...... 26 4.2 High-Level Road Network Alternatives ...... 26 4.2.1 2031 Base Network ...... 27 4.2.2 2031 Enhanced Network ...... 28 4.3 Comparison of Base and Enhanced Networks ...... 28 4.4 Network Sensitivity Analysis ...... 37 4.4.1 Highway 401 Widening Sensitivity Test ...... 37 4.4.2 GO Train Extension to Bowmanville ...... 39 4.5 Analysis of Specific Road Segments ...... 40

5 2031 Proposed Road Network ...... 47 5.1 Provincial Highway Projects...... 47 5.2 Regional Road Projects ...... 48 5.2.1 Key Projects ...... 48 5.3 Network Performance of Proposed Network ...... 67

6 Road Needs Beyond 2031 ...... 71 6.1 Beyond 2031 Population and Employment Forecasts ...... 71 6.2 Transportation Demand and Network Implications ...... 74 6.3 Recommendations Beyond 2031 ...... 76

7 Prioritization and Phasing ...... 80 7.1.1 Prioritization Criteria ...... 80 7.1.2 Proposed Phasing ...... 81

8 Road Network Cost ...... 82 8.1 Capital Costs ...... 82

January 2018 ii IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Table of Contents (continued)

8.2 Operating and Rehabilitation Costs ...... 88

9 Paved Shoulders ...... 89 9.1 Benefits and Costs of Paved Shoulders ...... 89 9.2 Practices in other Jurisdictions ...... 91 9.2.1 York Region ...... 91 9.2.2 Region of Waterloo ...... 93 9.2.3 Halton Region ...... 95 9.2.4 Peel Region ...... 95 9.2.5 Provincial Jurisdictions ...... 95 9.3 Design Guidelines for Paved Shoulders ...... 98 9.4 Paved Shoulder Treatment Recommendations for Durham ...... 100 9.4.1 Summary of Findings ...... 100 9.4.2 Durham Regional Rural Road Characteristics and Shoulder Implementation ...... 100 9.4.3 Recommendations ...... 100

Appendix A – Additional Road Network Performance Data

January 2018 iii IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Table of Contents (continued)

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1.1: Transportation Directions ...... 3 Exhibit 2.1: Jurisdiction and Functional Class of Major Road Network in Durham Region ...... 8 Exhibit 2.2: Durham Region Road Network Expansions (2004 – 2017) ...... 10 Exhibit 2.3: Durham Region Road Expansions Scheduled for 2018* ...... 10 Exhibit 2.4: Self-containment Trends for Trips Starting in Durham (AM Peak Period) ...... 12 Exhibit 2.5: Self-containment Trends for AM Peak Period Transit Trips from Durham ...... 13 Exhibit 2.6: Mode Share for AM Peak Period Trips from Durham, 2001-2011 ... 13 Exhibit 2.7: Household Car Ownership in Durham Region, 2001 to 2011 ...... 14 Exhibit 2.8: Existing Road Network Performance – Congested Links ...... 16 Exhibit 2.9: Natural Features Map ...... 18 Exhibit 3.1: Official Plan Growth Forecasts ...... 20 Exhibit 3.2: Regional Structure (Schedule ‘A’ of Official Plan) ...... 21 Exhibit 3.3: Peak Period Travel Demand Growth ...... 22 Exhibit 3.4: Trips Starting in Durham Region by Destination (AM Peak Period) 23 Exhibit 3.5: Work Trips Starting in Durham (AM Peak Period) ...... 23 Exhibit 3.6: Travel Self Containment, 2011 and 2031 Base Network Motorized Travel ...... 24 Exhibit 4.1: 2031 Base Network Assumptions ...... 27 Exhibit 4.2: 2031 Enhanced Network Assumptions ...... 28 Exhibit 4.3: High-level Summary of Model Results –AM Peak Period ...... 30 Exhibit 4.4: High-level Summary of Model Results –PM Peak Period ...... 30

January 2018 iv IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Table of Contents (continued)

Exhibit 4.5: 2031 Base Network – Congested Links ...... 31 Exhibit 4.6: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – Congested Links ...... 32 Exhibit 4.7: 2031 Base Scenario – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results ...... 33 Exhibit 4.8: 2031 Base Scenario – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results ...... 34 Exhibit 4.9: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results ...... 35 Exhibit 4.10: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results .... 36 Exhibit 4.11: Change in Traffic Volumes with Highway 401 Widening ...... 37 Exhibit 4.12: Volumes on Highway 401...... 38 Exhibit 4.13: Performance of 2031 Base Network without Highway 401 Widening (AM peak) ...... 38 Exhibit 4.14: V/C Ratios on 2031 Base Network with Highway 401 Widening (AM peak) ...... 39 Exhibit 4.15: Network Performance With and Without GO Train Extension ...... 40 Exhibit 4.16: Map of Key Missing Links...... 41 Exhibit 4.17: Auto Volumes with Missing Links Added to Network ...... 42 Exhibit 4.18: Change in Auto Volumes with Missing Links Added to Network ... 42 Exhibit 5.1: Regional Road Expansion Projects ...... 54 Exhibit 5.2: 2031 Proposed Network – Congested Links ...... 68 Exhibit 5.3: 2031 Proposed Network – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results ...... 69 Exhibit 5.4: 2031 Proposed Network – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results ...... 70 Exhibit 6.1: Population and Employment Growth Beyond 2031 ...... 72 Exhibit 6.2: Beyond 2031 Growth Areas ...... 73 Exhibit 6.3: Beyond 2031 Travel Demand (AM Peak Period) ...... 74 Exhibit 6.4: Beyond 2031 Scenario – Congested Links ...... 75 Exhibit 6.5: Regional Road Expansion Projects ...... 76 Exhibit 7.1: Prioritization Criteria ...... 81

January 2018 v IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Table of Contents (continued)

Exhibit 8.1: Costs Summary by Project Type ...... 82 Exhibit 8.2: Unit Costs...... 83 Exhibit 8.3: Road Capital Program ...... 84 Exhibit 8.4: Road Capital Program by Phase ...... 88 Exhibit 8.5: Basic Annual Road Operating Costs ...... 88 Exhibit 8.6: Benchmark Road Maintenance (Rehab) Costs ...... 88 Exhibit 8.7: Incremental Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs ...... 88 Exhibit 9.1: Grey County’s Financial Cost Comparison – Paved vs Gravel Shoulders (2008 prices) ...... 91 Exhibit 9.2: York Region’s Rural Road Typologies ...... 92 Exhibit 9.3: Rural buffered paved shoulder on Ninth Line in York Region ...... 93 Exhibit 9.4: Waterloo Region’s Rural Road Typology ...... 94 Exhibit 9.5: Peel Region’s Paved Shoulder Design Criteria Guidelines ...... 95 Exhibit 9.6: MTO’s Design Criteria for Paved Shoulders along Signed Bike Routes ...... 96 Exhibit 9.7: Paved Shoulder Widths and Buffers on Rural Two-Lane Highways Designated as a Cycling Route ...... 97 Exhibit 9.8: Paved Shoulder Widths for Active Transportation Policy (Nova Scotia) ...... 98 Exhibit 9.9: Suggested Widths for Paved Shoulders by Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) ...... 98 Exhibit 9.10: Cross-sections of Signed Bicycle Routes with Paved Shoulder .... 99 Exhibit 9.11: Suggested Widths for Paved Shoulders by Average Summer Daily Traffic (ASDT) and Speed ...... 99

January 2018 vi IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

1 Introduction

Durham Region is updating its Transportation Master Plan (TMP), a strategic planning document designed to define the policies, programs and infrastructure improvements required to plan for Durham’s future transportation needs. The purpose of the TMP update is to:

 gauge and assess the progress of the previous TMP;

 update the Region’s travel demand forecasting tools to reflect the most recent population and employment projections;

 revisit and update its strategies and policies to reflect current trends, needs and best practices; and

 identify transportation projects to meet Durham Region’s future needs. A key element of the update is the development of a road network that will meet existing and future needs of the Region. The road network is an integral component of an efficient, equitable and sustainable transportation system. 1.1 Objectives The objective of this Road Network Development Report is to provide a summary of the analysis supporting the recommended road network for 2031 and beyond. This report will:

 provide insight on the Durham Region’s integrated transportation system, identifying the needs and opportunities for Regional roads to support future growth to 2031 and beyond;

 present alternative improvements for the Regional road network;

 present the analysis and evaluation of the alternative network solutions;

 propose a set of road network improvements for 2031; and

 identify road improvements to support growth beyond 2031 for the purpose of protecting corridors through future updates to the Regional Official Plan. This report is intended to focus on the road network as part of a multimodal transportation system. Consideration and analysis of needs and network recommendations for Transit and Cycling are detailed in separate reports.

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It should also be noted that the focus of this report is on network needs and the rationale for the proposed road improvements. Complementary policies regarding the road network are presented in the main TMP document. 1.2 Transportation Directions The transportation directions that guide the development of the TMP’s policies, strategies and actions are presented below. The transportation directions are comprised of three main components: the first level consists of high level principles, generally reflecting the Vision for the Region; the second level consists of the directions themselves; and the third level includes detailed policies, strategies and actions. By prioritizing both efficiency and sustainability, Durham Region’s transportation system will focus on the following guiding principles:

Guiding Principles 1. A focus on users 2. Connectivity 3. Public health and safety 4. Economic prosperity 5. Environmental protection 6. Collaboration and leadership 7. Innovation

Transportation Directions Key transportation directions have been developed for the TMP to oversee the provision of an effective transportation system and are outlined in Exhibit 1.1.

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Exhibit 1.1: Transportation Directions

• Strengthen the relationship 01 between land use and transportation • Promote sustainable travel 05 choices

• Elevate the role of integrated 02 public transit including Rapid Transit • Invest strategically in the 06 transportation system

• Make walking and cycling 03 more practical and attractive

• Improve goods movement to 07 support economic development • Optimize road infrastructure 04 and operation

Direction #4 is the most relevant for the roads background report: DIRECTION #4: Optimize road infrastructure and operation Durham Region will manage congestion levels through a proactive combination of capacity, design, and operational strategies that can reduce the impact of bottlenecks and discontinuities, improve safety for all road users, and be adaptive to climate change challenges. The use of “complete street” approaches can extract the maximum public benefit from road facilities. When integrated into street planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance processes, complete street concepts can improve the safety and comfort of all road users— especially pedestrians and cyclists, but also transit riders, car and truck drivers, and emergency service providers. A connected, efficient network of complete streets can create an optimal balance of mobility choices, while maintaining the integrity of emergency routes. The important role of Regional roads in serving public transit and enabling the movement of goods across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) will be preserved through right-of-way allocation, operational prioritization, and advanced technologies.

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1.3 Network Development Approach Identifying future needs to facilitate demand on Regional roads in Durham requires a strategic approach that considers all network solution types to optimize road infrastructure and operation. To undertake this approach, improvements were individually evaluated based on existing conditions, projected traffic forecasts, Regional screen lines and supplementary reports from completed secondary studies and environmental assessments. Developing a long-term transportation network for Durham requires a structured and comprehensive framework of recommendations. As a starting point, a long list of network improvements was assessed against the Region’s existing road network, the previous Transportation Master Plan (2005) and committed road expansion projects presented in the 2013 Regional Development Charge Bylaw Background Study and 2016 Capital Budget and Nine Year Forecast. Additionally, transportation needs identified in other plans and studies, such as the 2010 Long Term Transit Strategy and municipal master plans, and issues brought forth at municipal meetings were also considered. 1.4 Municipal Class EA Process Analyses in this report were carried out in accordance with Phases 1 and 2 of the Municipal Class EA process, which deal with project need and justification and evaluation of alternative solutions. While a detailed environmental review was not undertaken for each individual project, an understanding of local environmental assets was used to assess the relative merit of the various transportation corridors, alternatives and corresponding road improvements. Justification and costing for all new road links and an assessment of the ease of implementation is provided. As discussed later in this report, project sheets that describe the existing environment, alternatives considered and the project justification were also developed for each proposed road expansion project. 1.5 Report Structure This report is structured to provide a summary of the process used to arrive at a series of recommendations for road improvements as part of the TMP. The chapters are as follows:

 Chapter 2: Background provides an overview of the existing road network and key trends that have and will continue to influence road network needs.

 Chapter 3: Future Needs and Opportunities contains a high-level assessment of future travel demands.

 Chapter 4: Development of the 2031 Network presents a screenline-by-screenline analysis of road network performance under

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a base and an enhanced scenario, assessment of future needs and the projects that meet those needs, along with sensitivity tests of key network elements.

 Chapter 5: 2031 Proposed Network presents the road projects that are included in the TMP that make up the proposed network.

 Chapter 6: Road Needs Beyond 2031 presents a review of projects that are not required to address needs by 2031, but are recommended to be protected to address needs in the longer term.

 Chapter 7: Costing presents the capital, operating, and rehabilitation costs for all projects in the 2031 network as well as a description of the costing methodology.

 Chapter 8: Prioritization and Phasing provides an overview how projects identified as part of the 2031 Road Network were prioritized and phased, along with the recommended network for projects beyond 2031.

January 2018 5 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 2 Background 2.1 Durham Region Transportation Planning Model (DRTPM) A key tool used to inform the development of the road network is the Durham Region Transportation Planning Model (DRTPM). The DRTPM is a four stage multimodal transportation demand model first developed in 2008-2009 by Professor Eric Miller at the University of Toronto working with HDR. An update was performed in 2014 by HDR to calibrate the model to 2011/2012 using the 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) data and 2012 road and transit networks. Although the base year is a blend of 2011-2012 conditions, as TTS data was collected in fall of 2011 and 2012, it is referred to as the 2011 base year. The Durham Model is described at length in two reports –DRPTM 2011/2012 Update and Recalibration (HDR, September 2014) and DRTPM Model Users’ Guide V2 (HDR, October 2015). These reports were used for background information, setting up model runs and validating base year forecasts. For the TMP update, the Region’s model was used to forecast traffic demand for 2031 with supplemental traffic forecasts for 2021 and Beyond 2031 horizons. The travel demand forecasting efforts undertaken for the future horizons are documented under separate cover in the Model Background Report that provides more detailed information on model parameters and assumptions used in the projections of future demand. 2.2 Existing Road Network Durham Region has a well-developed road network that has supported growth and development in the Region over the last several decades. This network, shown in Exhibit 2.1, which consists of freeways, highways, arterials, collectors, industrial locals, and residential locals, provides for efficient movement across the Region as well as access to residences and businesses. These functions, both equally important to providing an effective transportation network, are provided in different proportions by each road type. Provincial Freeways are almost entirely flow-oriented and serve mostly longer distance trips. They provide access to and from major arterial roads. All freeways in Durham Region are generally owned and maintained by the Province, with the exception of Highway 407 west of Brock Road, which is operated and maintained by 407 ETR.

 Highway 401 is the primary east-west corridor through Durham Region, connecting southern Durham Region with Toronto and other GTHA municipalities to the west and Northumberland County and Eastern Ontario to the east.

 The extension of Highway 407 from Brock Road to Harmony Road and the new Highway 412 connecting Highway 407 to Highway 401

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east of Lake Ridge Road add approximately 31 kilometres of highway to Durham’s transportation network, including 10 new interchanges and a partial interchange at Highway 401/Lake Ridge Road.

 Highway 115 is constructed to a freeway standard north of the Highway 35/115 split in eastern Durham Region and provides links between the Region, Kawartha Lakes, and Peterborough. Provincial Highways include Highway 7, Highway 7A, Highway 12, Highway 35/115 and Highway 48. These highways, which are owned and maintained by the province, are mostly classified in the ROP as Type A arterials because they provide a similar function to certain Regional roads.

 Highway 7 is an east-west corridor, connecting Durham Region with York Region to the west and the City of Kawartha Lakes to the east; the portion east of Highway 12 forms part of the Trans-Canada Highway (southern route) though Ontario.

 Highways 12 and 48 are north-south corridors and act as the primary transportation links between the northern and southern municipalities in Durham Region, and Highway 12 north of Highway 7 in the Township of Brock also forms part of the Trans-Canada Highway. Highways 7A and 35/115 originate in eastern Durham Region and provide links between Durham Region, Kawartha Lakes, and Peterborough. Arterials serve both traffic flow and land access functions. They generally serve mid-distance traffic movements and distribute traffic to/from lower classification roads and to/from higher classification roads. The Regional Official Plan designates three arterial subtypes, referred to as Type A, B, and C. Type A arterials are mostly flow oriented with operating speeds of 70-80 km/h and right- of-way widths of 36-45 metres providing connections between the Durham Region municipalities and areas not served by the provincial highways. Type B arterials are intended to move a lower volume of vehicles with operating speeds of 60-80 km/h and right-of-way widths of 30-36 metres. Type B arterials provide secondary connections through the southern municipalities and provide access to more isolated areas in northern Durham Region. Type C arterials are the most access oriented with operating speeds of 50-60 km/h and right-of-way widths of 26-30 metres. Type C arterials are located only in the lakefront municipalities (with the exception of one Type C arterial in Scugog) primarily within the designated urban areas.

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Exhibit 2.1: Jurisdiction and Functional Class of Major Road Network in Durham Region

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Collector roads serve to collect traffic from local roads and distribute it to both major land developments and arterials. With few exceptions these roads are owned and maintained by the local municipalities. Local roads are the most access-oriented class. These roads provide direct access to individual properties or developments and roads of a higher classification. As with collector roads, local roads are owned and maintained by the area municipalities. A full description of the various network and system components that make up the existing transportation system in Durham Region is provided in the Existing Conditions Report. That report summarized the state of the existing infrastructure supporting auto, transit, and active transportation modes. 2.3 Road Network Expansion Durham Region has been steadily expanding its road network. All Regional road network expansions undertaken between 2004 and 2015 are listed in Exhibit 2.2. Durham Region has added approximately 74 lane-kilometres to the road network during this period, the majority of which has come in the form of widening arterial roads. This represents an expansion of the Regional road network by 4%. In addition to the above road improvements constructed since the previous TMP, Exhibit 2.3 lists Regional road capacity expansion projects currently scheduled for construction in 2016/17. Provincial highway improvement projects undertaken between 2004 and 2015 include:

 Highway 7 between Brock Road and Baldwin Street (widen 2 to 4 lanes);

 Highway 401 between Westney Road and Salem Road (widen 8 to 10 lanes);

 Highway 7/12 between Queen Street and north of Columbus Road (widen 2 to 3 lanes);

 Passing lanes at several locations of Highway 7/12; and

 A new Highway 401 interchange at Stevenson Road and reconstruction of the Holt Road interchange. The above Regional and Provincial projects have been incorporated into the travel demand model.

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Exhibit 2.2: Durham Region Road Network Expansions (2004 – 2017) Added Location Limits Description Lane-km Brock Road #1 Bayly Street to Finch Avenue Widen 5 to 6 lanes 2.0 Brock Road #1 5th Concession Road to north limit of New Brougham 3.2 Brougham hamlet bypass Simcoe Street #2 King Street to 0.6 km south of Scugog Street Widen 2 to 3 lanes 0.9 Taunton Road #4 Church Street to Brock Street Widen 2 to 5 lanes 28.6 Taunton Road #4 Simcoe Street to Ritson Road Widen 4 to 5 lanes 0.5 Taunton Road #4 Harmony Road and Townline Road Widen 2 to 5 lanes 5.0 Bayly St/Victoria Street 0.5 km east of Lake Ridge Road to Shoal Widen 2 to 4/5 lanes 10.4 #22 Point Road Bayly St/Victoria Street 0.2 km west of Thickson Road to 0.8 km east Widen 2/3 to 5 lanes 5.3 #22 of Thickson Road Bloor Street #22 Merrit Street to Ritson Road Widen 4 to5 lanes 0.4 Thickson Road #26 Victoria Street to Consumers Drive Widen 5 to 7 lanes 2.0 Thickson Road #26 Rossland Road to Taunton Road Widen 3 to 5 lanes 4.1 Altona Road #27 Kingston Road to 0.6 km north of Twyn Widen 2 to 4 lanes 3.5 Rivers Drive Rossland Road #28 Civic Centre Drive to west of Garden Street Widen 4 to 5 lanes 0.5 Westney Road #31 Delaney Drive to Rossland Road Widen 3 to 4 lanes 1.0 Harmony Road #33 Olive Avenue to Adelaide Avenue Widen 3 to 4/5 lanes 6.0 Harmony Road #33 Adelaide Avenue to Rossland Road Widen 3 to 5 lanes 2.2 Harmony Road #33 Taunton Road to Coldstream Drive Widen 4 to 5 lanes 0.5 Toronto Street #Hwy Wellwood Drive to Campbell Drive Widen 2 to 3 lanes 1.7 47 TOTAL 77.8

Exhibit 2.3: Durham Region Road Expansions Scheduled for 2018* Added Location Limits Description Lane-km Simcoe Street #2 North of Conlin Road to Winchester Road Widen 2 to 5 lanes 4.0 Winchester Road #3 Anderson Road to Garrard Road Widen 2 to 5 lanes 2.2 Victoria Street #22 Halls Road to Seadboard Gate Widen 2 to 4 lanes 1.5 Victoria Street #22 South Blair Street to east of Thickson Road New Connection 2.2 Harmony Road #33 Rossland Road to Taunton Road Widen 2 to 4/5 lanes 4.0 Consumers Drive #25 East of Thickson Road to Thornton Road New Connection 1.7 Brock Street Reg. North of Rossland Road to south of Taunton Widen 3 to 5 lanes 3.8 Hwy 12 Road TOTAL 19.4 * Includes projects identified in the Regional Road Program 2017 Capital Budget and Nine Year Forecast

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2.4 Travel Trends Durham Region is a rapidly growing municipality. As part of the Regional Official Plan review, the Region’s 2016 estimates included a 15% growth in population and 12% growth in employment in the 5-year period between 2011 and 2016. Of the eight municipalities, the Town of Ajax is experiencing the fastest growth rate. Other key trends are as follows:

 The number of households in Durham Region increased by nearly 10% between 2006 and 2011.

 Over 90% of households in Durham Region are located within urban areas, and more than 99% of households in Oshawa and Ajax are in the urban area.

 Durham Region’s unemployment rate rose from 6.3% in 2006 to 8.6% in 2011.

 The largest category of employment is the sales and service sector with 22.8% of total employment.

 In 2014, Durham Region’s Business Count reported more than 170,000 jobs Trends observed in the travel behaviour of Durham Region residents between 2001 and 2011 are presented in this section. Travel behaviour is one of the key driving forces behind the performance of the existing transportation network. A more detailed analysis is presented in the Existing Conditions Report.

2.4.1 Self-Containment In 2001 the residents of Durham made over 1.1 million daily trips. By 2011 there were over 1.3 million daily trips, in line with the 20% growth in population experienced over the same period. In the 6:30 AM to 9:30 AM peak period, most work trips—56% or about 71,000 trips—originating in the Region stayed within the Region. This is slightly below the 60% achieved in 1991 but has been stable since 2001, indicating that the Region has been successful in preventing further decline in self-containment. The Region’s self-containment rate is around the average level for GTHA upper tier municipalities—it is less than Peel’s 62% but greater than York’s 50%. There has been a substantial increase —59% or 7,200 trips —in morning peak period trips across the York-Durham boundary, but this has not been matched by increases in trips destined to York Region, which only increased by 20%. Half of these cross-border trips at the York-Durham boundary are using Highway 407 to exit Durham Region, bound for a range of destinations including City of Toronto and Peel Region. This highlights the fact that the Toronto-Durham boundary is near capacity and drivers are shifting further north to use the additional capacity offered by Highway 407. The Toronto-Durham boundary accounts for three quarters of all morning peak period cross-boundary trips.

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Exhibit 2.4 presents the self- containment trends for the morning peak period for trips by all modes starting in Durham. Exhibit 2.4: Self-containment Trends for Trips Starting in Durham (AM Peak Period)

Trips by Destination - AM Peak Period 200,000 180,000 Durham 160,000

140,000 Downtown 120,000 Toronto 100,000 Rest of Toronto 80,000 York 60,000

40,000 Other 20,000 0 2001 2006 2011 Source: 2001-2011 Transportation Tomorrow Surveys The destinations of trips that start in Durham by transit are significantly different from those of auto driver and auto passenger modes. Whereas internal Durham trips make up the majority of all trips in the morning peak period, the primary destination for transit trips is downtown Toronto as shown in Exhibit 2.5. As noted above, the Durham-Toronto boundary is highly congested. The GO Rail Lakeshore East line provides an alternative to driving to downtown Toronto that has become the preferred mode to destinations in the downtown core of Toronto. Between 2006 and 2011, there was a significant increase in transit trips to downtown Toronto as well as other parts of Toronto. This reflects the increase GO Rail service as well as the expansion of services offered by DRT connecting Durham to Toronto.

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Exhibit 2.5: Self-containment Trends for AM Peak Period Transit Trips from Durham

Transit Trips starting in Durham - AM Peak Period 18,000 Durham 16,000 14,000 Downtown 12,000 Toronto 10,000 8,000 Rest of Toronto 6,000

4,000 Other 2,000 0 2001 2006 2011 Source: 2001-2011 Transportation Tomorrow Surveys

2.4.2 Mode Share In 2011, the auto driver mode accounted for 65% of the 6:30 am to 9:30 am peak period trips, and overall, 80% of the 300,000 morning peak period trips were completed by private automobile (including drivers and passengers). This is essentially unchanged since 1991. Transit, including GO Rail, maintained an average 7% share in the two decades leading up to 2011. The lakeshore municipalities of Ajax, Pickering, Whitby, and Oshawa continue to have significantly larger transit shares than the northern municipalities, which are all at or below 3%. Exhibit 2.6: Mode Share for AM Peak Period Trips from Durham, 2001-2011

Source: 2001-2011 Transportation Tomorrow Surveys

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While overall modal shares have shown little change over the years, the strong growth in trips to downtown Toronto has been accompanied by a significant shift to transit, particularly to GO Rail, for this destination. The transit mode share for trips to downtown Toronto was at 73% in 2011, up from 65% in 2001; a trend that has also been observed across other GTHA municipalities, such as York Region. However, trips to downtown Toronto account for only 6% of all morning peak period trips originating in Durham Region so this shift does not significantly impact the overall mode shares. The average length of a trip made by Durham Region residents in the 6:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. peak period was 13.6 km in 2011, virtually unchanged since 2001. The average work trip in the morning peak period, however, was 21.1 km long in 2011, up from 20.3 km in 2001 and 17.9 km in 1991. Residents in the northern municipalities of Brock, Uxbridge, and Scugog on average travelled 24.6 km to work compared to 20.7 km for residents of the lakeshore municipalities.

2.4.3 Auto Ownership Alongside the relatively flat auto mode split, households in Durham have increased their car ownership levels between 2001 and 2011. Exhibit 2.7 highlights the three- percentage-point increase in the number of households with two or more vehicles. The average number of cars per household in Durham increased slightly from 1.7 to 1.8 in the period, which is a similar increase to that seen in York Region, Hamilton and Peel Region. Auto occupancies in the morning peak period have remained relatively constant since 2001 averaging 1.15 persons per vehicle across the region. Exhibit 2.7: Household Car Ownership in Durham Region, 2001 to 2011

Source: 2001-2011 Transportation Tomorrow Surveys

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2.5 Existing Road Network Performance As presented in the Existing Conditions Report, major east-west corridors currently experience heavy congestion in some areas. In the morning commute periods, heavy congestion is predominantly in the westbound direction particularly along Highway 401 and parallel arterials. This highway corridor, which connects the centres of the lakeshore municipalities, is the busiest corridor into and out of Durham Region. Highways 7 and 407 comprise the other major east-west corridors in Durham Region, but carry less traffic with lower levels of congestion. Arterial roads in the east-west direction providing connections to and from Toronto and York Region are handling overflow traffic from Highway 401 and experience congestion during both commute periods as shown in Exhibit 2.8. These roads include sections of Highway 2, Bayly Street, Rossland Road, Taunton Road and Highway 7. The congestion maps also show that the approaches to the Highway 401 interchanges are also at or over capacity.

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Exhibit 2.8: Existing Road Network Performance – Congested Links

AM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

PM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

January 2018 16 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

2.6 Natural and Built Environment Environmental protection is one of the guiding principles for the TMP. Any expansion of the road network must be weighed against potential impacts on the natural and built environment. Durham Region’s natural and built environment includes significant natural heritage systems, woodlands, wetlands and agricultural areas. There are many areas which have been protected by Provincial and Regional policies including the Provincial Greenbelt, Oak Ridges Moraine and the Regional Greenlands System identified in the Regional Official Plan. The Greenbelt Plan covers approximately 80% of Durham Region, comprising the majority of the northern townships of Brock, Uxbridge, and Scugog. Within the Greenbelt, the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan protects the Moraine through specific policies limiting growth and expansion of urban areas and hamlets located in this designated area. The Regional Greenland System is aligned to the Region’s valley systems including the Oak Ridges Moraine, major open space systems, and waterfront open space. These valley systems are protected by five Conservation Authorities with jurisdiction over 32 watersheds and legislation to restrict any future developments to wetlands and floodplains. Exhibit 2.9 presents the key natural heritage and hydrologic features in Durham. The Greenbelt Plan acknowledges the need to accommodate the substantial growth projections for southern Ontario through provisions for new or expanded transportation infrastructure. Generally, expanding and/or constructing new infrastructure is permitted within the Protected Countryside if it supports the permitted activities within the Greenbelt or if it serves significant growth and economic development by providing appropriate connections to urban growth centres. Additionally, these infrastructure improvements will be required to minimize impacts where possible, particularly to key natural heritage or hydrologic features. Further details of infrastructure requirements in Ontario’s Greenbelt, are included in Section 4.2.1 of The Greenbelt Plan. Section 41 of the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP) outlines the requirements to approve transportation and/or infrastructure projects within the Oak Ridges Moraine. It is similar to those in the Greenbelt Plan and allows for transportation uses if the need for the project is demonstrated and there is no reasonable alternative. Impacts must be kept to a minimum and consideration must be given to improve or accommodate natural heritage features (e.g. wildlife crossings).

January 2018 17 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 2.9: Natural Features Map

January 2018 18 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

2.7 Summary and Implications for Road Network Development Durham Region comprises a vast area containing a mix of urban and rural conditions. At present, Durham remains heavily dependent on automobiles for the majority of travel. Auto mode shares have remained relatively stable at approximately 80% since 2001. It is expected that Durham will continue to remain reliant on auto travel for the foreseeable future, notwithstanding opportunities to improve modal choice through transit, walking and cycling improvements. Durham has been fortunate in that it has managed to accommodate growth in a sustainable and predictable manner. In fact, it could be concluded that the road network may have excess capacity in some areas as a result of road expansion projects made in response to growth that was projected in the 2003 TMP, but which occurred at a slower pace than expected. The TMP update provides an opportunity to strategically expand the road network in a sustainable manner while maximizing opportunities for other modes.

January 2018 19 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 3 Future Transportation Needs and Opportunities 3.1 Population and Employment Growth The Region’s growth forecast for the year 2031, as per the Official Plan, is for a population of 960,000 and employment of 350,000 as presented in Exhibit 3.1. These forecasts are consistent with the Province’s initial 2031 growth targets in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006). The province has since amended its growth targets for 2031 and the amended population and employment forecasts for Durham Region are 970,000 and 360,000, respectively. Exhibit 3.1: Official Plan Growth Forecasts ROP – POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT

2011a 2031 Growth Population 644,000 960,000 49% Employment 226,000 350,000 55% a. 2011 population and employment based on actual 2011 population and jobs (including undercount and No Fixed Place of Work) The planned growth is allocated to various areas in the Region, following the framework set forth by the Regional Structure. The Regional Structure of Durham is composed of four interconnected systems: Urban, Rural, Greenlands and Transportation. The components of the Regional Structure are designated in Schedule A of the Regional Official Plan shown in Exhibit 3.2. The majority of the growth will occur in the urban areas, primarily in the lakeshore municipalities. The major growth areas include Seaton in Pickering, Brooklin in Whitby, the communities in Clarington and Regional Urban Growth Centres in Pickering and Oshawa. With the adoption of ROPA 128, previously identified growth areas that were included in the assessments for the Long-Term Transit Study were removed from the current 2031 forecast. Thus, the current 2031 land use forecast excludes growth in areas such as North Oshawa and Northeast Pickering. For the purpose of a sensitivity analysis, a “Beyond 2031” horizon was assessed. The land use forecasts for the Beyond 2031 horizon are presented in Section 6.1.

January 2018 20 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 3.2: Regional Structure (Schedule ‘A’ of Official Plan)

January 2018 21 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

3.2 2031 Travel Demand The projected growth in population and employment will result in a corresponding growth in travel demand by residents and employees living and working within Durham Region. The DRTPM was used to project travel demand to 2031. Under the Base Network Scenario, which includes only funded and committed road and transit projects to 2031 (see Section 4.2.1 for more information), the growth in trips is comparable to the growth in population and employment. In the AM peak period, trips are projected to grow by 43% and in the PM peak period trips are projected to grow by 55%. These compare to development growth of about 52% (population and employment combined). Transit trips are growing slightly faster than auto trips, resulting in a small increase in transit mode share. Exhibit 3.3 summarizes the growth by mode to 2031 for the Base Scenario. While transit trips are growing at a faster rate, the absolute increase in auto trips (149,000 in PM peak period) is approximately ten times the growth in transit trips (13,900). Exhibit 3.3: Peak Period Travel Demand Growth

Travel Demand Growth Auto Transit 600

400 Thousands

200

0 2011 AM 2031 Base AM 2011 PM 2031 Base PM METRIC AM Peak Period PM Peak Period 2011 2031 % 2011 2031 % Growth Growth Auto Trips 236,950 338,040 +43% 272,790 421,570 +55% Transit Trips 28,470 41,230 +45% 23,250 37,170 +60% Total Trips 265,420 379,270 +43% 296,040 458,730 +55% Transit share 10.7% 10.9% +1% 7.9% 8.1% +3% Source: Durham Region Transportation Planning Model (DRTPM). AM trips originating in Durham and PM trips destined to Durham 3.3 2031 Travel Patterns The growth in travel demand is not uniform across all travel markets. Over time, as residential and employment areas develop within Durham (and throughout the rest of the GTHA), people will have more choice in where they live and work, and this decision is determined in part by the availability and quality of

January 2018 22 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

transportation connections between the two. The modelled trip distribution considers the link between worker and workplaces, students and schools, as well as other origin-destination pairs for non-work/non-school trips. Historically, the largest and fastest growing segment of travel demand has been internal trips within Durham Region. This trend will continue as internal trips are projected to increase by 54% between 2011 and 2031 as shown in Exhibit 3.4. A further indication of changing travel patterns is the proportion of work trips made in Durham Region that stay within Durham Region. The DRTPM projects that internal work trips will increase fairly significantly from 47% in 2011 to 59% in 2031 as shown in Exhibit 3.5. This reflects the growth in employment within the Region, from 230,000 to 350,000 which will provide residents with increasing options to work closer to home. Exhibit 3.4: Trips Starting in Durham Region by Destination (AM Peak Period)

300 Within Durham 250 Durham - 200 Downtown Toronto Durham - 150 Rest of Toronto 100 Durham - York NumberofTrips (000'S) 50 Durham - 0 Peel 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Source: 1986-2011 TTS, 2031 DRTPM Note: Excludes walking, cycling and school bus modes. Exhibit 3.5: Work Trips Starting in Durham (AM Peak Period)

200,000 175,000 Total Work Trips 150,000 starting in Durham 125,000 Work trips internal to 100,000 Durham 75,000 59% 50,000 25,000 47% 0 2011 2031 Source: 2011 DRTPM and 2031 DRTPM

January 2018 23 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

In general, the proportion of trips that are self-contained, either remaining in their local municipality or remaining within Durham, is expected to increase between 2011 and 2031 as shown in Exhibit 3.6. Exhibit 3.6: Travel Self Containment, 2011 and 2031 Base Network Motorized Travel

2011 AM Peak Period Trips 2031 AM Peak Period Trips % % Within % Within % Within All within Within All within Local within Local within Durham Trips Local Durham Trips Local Munic. Durham Munic. Durham Origin Munic. Munic. Ajax 18,600 30,300 51,200 36% 59% 21,100 39,300 58,600 36% 67% Brock 1,700 2,400 3,800 45% 63% 2,000 2,600 4,100 49% 63% Clarington 14,600 26,600 32,600 45% 82% 27,500 44,500 52,400 52% 85% Oshawa 37,200 52,100 64,600 58% 81% 45,000 64,500 77,400 58% 83% Pickering 12,200 18,600 43,200 28% 43% 33,400 49,500 90,200 37% 55% Scugog 4,500 6,400 8,800 51% 73% 4,000 6,100 7,500 53% 81% Uxbridge 3,800 4,600 8,800 43% 52% 3,700 4,800 8,900 42% 54% Whitby 25,700 41,300 57,300 45% 72% 39,900 69,300 85,100 47% 81% Total 118,300 182,300 270,300 44% 67% 176,600 280,600 384,200 46% 73%

3.4 Commentary on Needs by Area North Durham (Brock, Uxbridge and Scugog) For the most part, road network capacity in north Durham is sufficient for forecast demands. Forecast volumes are not anticipated to approach capacity (90% of link capacity) by 2031. Regional Highway 47 is the major east-west corridor in North Durham, connecting Uxbridge to York Region and operates at about 60% of capacity. It is noted that almost all of the roads in North Durham are 2-lane rural roads with little or no paved shoulders. East Durham (Clarington) Generally, the road network in the eastern part of Durham also has sufficient capacity to accommodate forecast demands with a few exceptions in the urban areas. Localized constraints occur in the south, primarily at the approaches to Highway 401 during the afternoon peak, reflecting the high demands to/from the highway system. Constraints also occur at the border with Oshawa reflecting the east-west travel patterns of Clarington residents.

January 2018 24 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Pickering-Ajax In the peak periods, the major corridors in Pickering and Ajax are highly constrained. The road network in the western parts of Durham serves the accumulated traffic demand of Durham residents to and from York Region and the City of Toronto. In the AM peak, congestion on Highway 401 and its parallel corridors has diverted traffic to the north, resulting in constraints along Taunton Road, Highway 407 and Highway 7 as well as the north end of Pickering along Regional Road 5 and York Durham Line. In the PM peak, congestion in the north parts of Pickering is less severe as peak traffic demands are more spread- out over the peak period. North-south travel is also impacted by growth in travel demand as shown by the level of congestion on Whites Road, Brock Road, Westney Road and Salem Road. For the most part, congestion on the north-south arterials occurs at the approaches to Highway 401. Whitby-Oshawa At the west boundary of Whitby, all east-west corridors including Dundas Street, Rossland Road, Taunton Road and Columbus Road are at capacity during the peak periods. Localized constraints also occur in Brooklin during both peak periods. Constraints in the southern parts of Whitby and Oshawa are mainly related to access to Highway 401 and travel on Dundas Street and King Street/Bond Street. In the afternoon peak, there is considerable activity in the employment areas south of Highway 401 and crossings of the highway become constrained.

January 2018 25 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 4 Development of the 2031 Network 4.1 Approach for Integrated Network Development Identifying future needs to facilitate demand on Regional roads in Durham requires a strategic approach that considers all network solution types to optimize road infrastructure and operation. As a starting point, a long list of network improvements was assessed against the Region’s existing road network, the previous Transportation Master Plan (2005) and committed road expansion projects presented in the 2013 Regional Development Charge and 2016 Capital Budget and Nine Year Forecast. Transportation needs that have been identified in other plans and studies, such as the 2010 Long Term Transit Strategy and municipal master plans, and issues brought forth at municipal meetings were also added to the long list of network improvements for assessment. The assessment of each project included a review of existing operations on the subject corridor, projected traffic forecasts, Regional screen lines and supplementary reports from completed secondary studies and environmental assessments. Consideration was also given to the project’s role in accommodating transit or completing the network grid. Building on the overall Principles and Directions for the TMP, it is the intention that the recommended network would increase/maximize person-carrying capacity and transit potential. Reallocating corridor capacity where necessary would ensure that proposed expansions increase total person-carrying capacity, including the general principle that any road widening beyond four lanes would be to accommodate high occupancy vehicles (HOV) or transit. Road-based transit systems benefit both road users and transit users – the accommodation of Rapid Transit and High Frequency Bus service is detailed in the parallel Higher-order Transit Strategy Development Report. 4.2 High-Level Road Network Alternatives Chapter 2 of this report presented a summary of transportation performance measures for the existing network while Chapter 3 described future 2031 demands that will need to be accommodated through the recommendations of the TMP update. Two high-level network scenarios were developed to represent a range of potential network needs and opportunities – 2031 Base Network and 2031 Enhanced Network. The Base Network comprises limited network improvements whereas the Enhanced Network reflects a more robust network with significant improvements. The network scenarios are described in more detail in the following sections.

January 2018 26 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Traffic forecasts were developed for both of the above network scenarios using the DRTPM. The travel demand forecasts and the resulting network performance, along with sensitivity tests on key network elements, were used in the assessment of network improvements. The individual project reviews were then used to develop the proposed 2031 network.

4.2.1 2031 Base Network The 2031 Base Network includes committed and funded projects by the Region, the Province or other agencies as summarized in Exhibit 4.1. Exhibit 4.1: 2031 Base Network Assumptions

Regional/Local  Roads with construction activities in Durham Region Roads 2015 9-Year Capital Plan  Road improvements in York, Peel, Toronto in most recent capital plans Provincial Roads  Improvements listed in MTO Southern Ontario Highways Program 2012 and 2014 Durham Region  DRT improvements between 2012 and 2013 Transit  2018 Base service plan in DRT 2013-2018 Five Year Plan  York Region 2015 10 year roads and transit construction program  Local route changes in Peel and Toronto to accommodate new Regional transit projects Metrolinx  Metrolinx First Wave* Projects, including: - VivaNext Rapidway on Yonge Street and Highway 7 in York Region - GO Rail Richmond Hill extension to Gormley in York Region - Sheppard East RT * Source: 2015-2020 Metrolinx Five Year Strategy. Excluding projects outside of the model area (Halton, Hamilton, etc.)

January 2018 27 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

4.2.2 2031 Enhanced Network A second network scenario was developed to represent a high level of infrastructure investment. This scenario, referred to as the Enhanced Network included projects identified in previous studies and plans such as the 2013 Development Charge Study, the Long-Term Transit Strategy (LTTS) and Regional transit projects identified by Metrolinx for the Next Wave of funding. Key assumptions for the Enhanced Network are provided in Exhibit 4.2. Exhibit 4.2: 2031 Enhanced Network Assumptions

Regional/Local  2031 Base Network, plus Roads - 2013 Development Charge Study 2028 Regional Road Network, which also includes improvements for several area municipal arterial roads Provincial Roads  2031 Base Network, plus - Future Highway 401 widenings - Future Highway 401 interchange improvements Durham Region  2031 Base Network, plus Transit - 2018 Enhanced service plan in DRT 2013-2018 Five Year Plan - Alternative E in Durham LTTS - Local route changes in York, Peel, and Toronto to accommodate new Regional transit projects Metrolinx  2031 Base Network, plus - Metrolinx Next Wave* Projects, including GO Rail Lakeshore East extension to Bowmanville * Source: 2015-2020 Metrolinx Five Year Strategy. Excluding projects outside of the model area (Halton, Hamilton, etc.) 4.3 Comparison of Base and Enhanced Networks As development continues to grow so will travel demand. Exhibit 4.3 and Exhibit 4.4 summarize high-level model results for the Base and Enhanced Networks. With less transit investment in the Base Network, auto trips will grow faster in that scenario. With the substantial transit investment in the Enhanced Network, transit ridership will increase by 63% and there is a resultant shift in travel demand from auto trips to transit trips. Overall, the Enhanced Network has less auto travel and auto delay while the number of trips made on Durham Region Transit in the morning peak period triples compared to 2011 conditions. With the limited road network expansion in the Base Network, roadway congestion is evident in many areas as shown in Exhibit 4.5. Parallel corridors to Highway 401 will be congested, and the congestion will divert traffic further north to alternative corridors such as Taunton Road, Highway 407 and Highway 7 that

January 2018 28 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

will serve increasing traffic volumes. Other localized constraints occur in many areas of the Regional network. The Base Network does not meet the needs of growth to 2031. Even with the Enhanced Network, congestion is not completely eliminated but given the additional road network capacity assumed in the Enhanced Network, there are fewer areas of constraints than in the Base Network as shown in Exhibit 4.6. East-west constraints, particularly around Highway 7 and Highway 407, are significantly reduced with the additional road and transit improvements assumed in place. Screenlines are used to provide a quantitative measure of network performance to identify key capacity constrained locations. A screenline is usually defined as a line along a roadway, boundary or natural barrier. The screenline performance takes into account all the roadways that cross the screenline, grouping the demands and capacities of parallel roads to assess the network at a broader scale. From a screenline perspective, the screenlines experience much higher v/c ratios in the 2031 Base Network than under 2011 conditions. This reflects the high rate of growth in travel demand from 2011 to 2031 which exceeds the capacity expansions to the network over that horizon. The Durham-Toronto Boundary screenline and the screenlines north and south of Highway 401 remain at or over capacity under 2031 Base Network conditions. Almost all screenlines are improved in the Enhanced Network, with some screenlines operating at a level as good as existing conditions. Screenline results are illustrated in Exhibit 4.7 and Exhibit 4.9. A more detailed comparison table of screenline results is provided in Appendix A.

January 2018 29 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.3: High-level Summary of Model Results –AM Peak Period

2031 BASE 2031 ENHANCED 2011 METRIC Value % Growth Value % Growth Auto Trips Peak Period 236,950 338,040 +43% 333,090 +41% (Origin in Durham) Transit Trips Peak Period 28,470 41,230 +45% 46,450 +63% (Origin in Durham) Total Trips Peak Period 265,420 379,270 +43% 379,540 +43% (origin in Durham) Transit share Peak Period 10.7% 10.9% +1% 12.2% +14%

Vehicle KM Travelled Peak Hour 1,075,720 1,466,930 +36% 1,457,620 +36% Vehicle Hours Travelled Peak Hour 17,240 26,230 +52% 23,950 +39%

DRT Boardings Peak Period 18,290 36,170 +98% 56,380 +208% DRT Passenger KM Peak Period 79,740 177,370 +122% 317,530 +298% DRT Passenger Hours Peak Period 2,980 6,660 +123% 11,160 +274% GO Boardings Peak Period 17,420 22,940 +32% 23,620 +36% Source: DRTPM Exhibit 4.4: High-level Summary of Model Results –PM Peak Period

2031 BASE 2031 ENHANCED 2011 METRIC Value % Growth Value % Growth Auto Trips Peak Period 272,790 421,570 +55% 406,920 +49% (Destination in Durham) Transit Trips Peak Period 23,250 37,170 +60% 38,030 +64% (Destination in Durham) Total Trips Peak Period 296,040 458,730 +55% 444,940 +50% (Destination in Durham) Transit share Peak Period 7.9% 8.1% +3% 8.5% +9%

Vehicle KM Travelled Peak Hour 1,173,160 1,635,110 +39% 1,578,310 +35% Vehicle Hours Travelled Peak Hour 18,230 29,080 +59% 26,310 +44%

DRT Boardings Peak Period 18,160 39,440 +117% 42,990 +137% DRT Passenger KM Peak Period 70,130 150,430 +115% 186,860 +166% DRT Passenger hours Peak Period 2,580 5,830 +125% 6,740 +161% GO Rail Boardings Peak Period 13,230 15,210 +15% 17,700 +34% Source: DRTPM

January 2018 30 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.5: 2031 Base Network – Congested Links

AM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

PM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

January 2018 31 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.6: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – Congested Links

AM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

PM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

January 2018 32 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.7: 2031 Base Scenario – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results

January 2018 33 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.8: 2031 Base Scenario – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results PM PEAK HOUR

January 2018 34 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.9: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results

January 2018 35 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.10: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results

January 2018 36 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

4.4 Network Sensitivity Analysis

4.4.1 Highway 401 Widening Sensitivity Test The widening of Highway 401 has been identified in previous Environmental Assessments; however, funding for the widening has not yet been committed by the Province through the Southern Ontario Highways program. For the purposes of the transportation modelling, the Highway 401 widening was assumed in the 2031 Enhanced Network, but not the 2031 Base Network. To test the impacts of the Highway 401 widening, a sensitivity analysis was conducted where the assumed Highway 401 widening in the Enhanced Network was added to the Base Network. That is, Highway 401 was widened to 10 lanes easterly from Salem Road to Liberty Street and to 8 lanes from Liberty Street to Highway 35/115. Exhibit 4.11 shows the differences in auto assignment on the networks as a result of the Highway 401 widening. With the widening, auto volumes on Highway 401 increase significantly (shown in red) and volumes on the parallel corridors decrease (shown in green), with the most notable decreases being Highway 407 and Bayly Street-Victoria Street. The forecast auto volumes and v/c ratios are presented in Exhibit 4.12 Exhibit 4.11: Change in Traffic Volumes with Highway 401 Widening

Source: DRTPM, November 26, 2015 model run

January 2018 37 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.12: Volumes on Highway 401 Highway 401 Location Without Widening With Widening Volume / V/C Ratio Volume / V/C Ratio East of Brock Road 9,300 / 1.03 9,500 / 1.05

East of Salem Road 6,700 / 1.24 8,700 / 0.97

East of Brock Street 4,300 / 0.80 5,700 / 0.63

East of Stevenson Road 5,700 / 1.06 7,300 / 0.81

Without the Highway 401 widening, Highway 401 is highly congested. Many segments have volume to capacity ratios exceeding 0.90 between the Toronto- Durham boundary and as far east as Harmony Road as indicated on the volume to capacity plot shown in Exhibit 4.13. West of Lake Ridge Road, v/c ratios on most sections exceed 1.0. The widening of Highway 401 provides much needed capacity and v/c ratios are reduced to less than 0.90 east of Salem Road to Harmony Road with the additional two lanes per direction through this area as shown in Exhibit 4.14. Capacity constraints will persist west of Salem Road in to Toronto with or without the widening. Exhibit 4.13: Performance of 2031 Base Network without Highway 401 Widening (AM peak)

Source: DRTPM, November 26, 2015 model run

January 2018 38 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.14: V/C Ratios on 2031 Base Network with Highway 401 Widening (AM peak)

Source: DRTPM, November 26, 2015 model run

4.4.2 GO Train Extension to Bowmanville Currently, GO Transit’s Lakeshore East line terminates at the Oshawa GO Station on Bloor Street at Thornton Road. The Big Move (2008) identified the potential easterly extension of the Lakeshore East line to Bowmanville in the 15- year plan. In 2011, an Environmental Assessment and Preliminary Design Study was completed that recommended expansion of GO Train service to Bowmanville on the CPR line via a new rail crossing of Highway 401 west of Thornton Road. The extension of GO Train service easterly to Bowmanville is a key priority of both the provincial and federal governments, each making commitments in their 2016 budget statements. The extension of GO Train service to Central Oshawa and further east to Bowmanville has significant transportation and mobility benefits. To assess the benefits of the GO Train extension, a series of network alternatives was tested. Given the complexities of the transit network in the Durham Model, the alternative networks were modelled as variations of the 2031 Enhanced Network which included an extension of GO Train service to Bowmanville as per the 2011 EA.

 Option 1: Lakeshore East terminates at existing Oshawa Station (Do Nothing)

 Option 2: Extension of Lakeshore East to Bowmanville via Central Oshawa (equivalent of 2031 Enhanced Network)

January 2018 39 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

 Option 3: Extension of Lakeshore East to Central Oshawa only With the extension to Bowmanville, up to 1,700 more morning peak period riders will use the GO Train. The modelling shows that a large majority of the GO Train demand would be new riders transferring from automobiles which has a beneficial impact to relieving capacity constraints on Highway 401 and parallel corridors through Oshawa and west Clarington. Exhibit 4.15 presents the impacts to traffic volumes on Highway 401 of the GO Train Extension where up to 1,200 peak hour trips are diverted from the freeway. Exhibit 4.15: Network Performance With and Without GO Train Extension

WESTBOUND HIGHWAY 401 (LIBERTY ST TO BROCK ST) Scenario Average Maximum Average Maximum Auto Auto V/C Ratio V/C Ratio Volume Volume No Extension of GO Train 5,000 7,500 0.56 0.83 beyond Oshawa Station Extension of GO Train to 4,300 6,300 0.48 0.70 Bowmanville Difference -14% -16% -14% -16% Note: sensitivity analysis completed on Enhanced Network with Highway 401 widening. 4.5 Analysis of Specific Road Segments The Regional Official Plan (ROP), Schedule 'C' shows future road network links that will one day complete the grid pattern of the arterial road network. However, some of these future links are constrained by physical and/or natural features that impact the feasibility of constructing the road link. The needs for a number of these links have been questioned. This sections assesses a number of these key links with respect to the need and function of the future roadway. The key links are Clements Road, Water Street, Williamson Drive, Stevenson Road, Church Street and Fifth Concession/Conlin Road. Exhibit 4.16 shows the locations of these road segments. A run of the DRTPM was performed on a network with all subject segments in place and the resultant volumes are shown on Exhibit 4.17. The changes in volumes with and without the subject segments are shown on Exhibit 4.18.

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Exhibit 4.16: Map of Key Missing Links

January 2018 41 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 4.17: Auto Volumes with Missing Links Added to Network

Fifth Concession Road Stevenson Road

Church Street

Williamson Drive

Water Street

Clements Road

Source: DRTPM Exhibit 4.18: Change in Auto Volumes with Missing Links Added to Network

Fifth Concession Road Stevenson Road

Church Street

Williamson Drive

Water Street

Clements Road Source: DRTPM

January 2018 42 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Church Street Extension from Taunton Road to Seventh Concession Road The ROP identifies a future connection of Church Street as a Type B Arterial between Taunton Road and Seventh Concession Road. Currently, Church Street is a paved rural road south of Taunton Road and an unpaved, low- capacity, rural road north of Taunton Road through the Greenbelt Natural Heritage System, crossing through Greenwood Conservation Area and Brougham Creek, and terminating at Fifth Concession Road. The Town of Ajax TMP proposed closing the section of Church Street between the hydro corridor (north of Taunton Road) and Fifth Concession Road to through traffic, providing only local access to properties north of the hydro corridor. The Ajax TMP did not Background Map: Durham Region online interactive include any future northerly maps extension of Church Street north of its current terminus. The sensitivity test with the Church Street connection showed a diversion of traffic from Brock Road to Church Street to access the Brock Road interchange at Highway 407. With the development of Seaton, Brock Road carries high traffic volumes, and Church Street would be an option to relieve Brock Road. However, the model under-assigns to Westney Road which is upgraded with the Greenwood by-pass and is planned to have a full interchange at Highway 407. Westney Road would be a more appropriate alternative to Brock Road and will have excess capacity. In the longer term, Beyond 2031, new growth areas in Northeast Pickering will add pressure to the road network around Highway 407 between Brock Road and Westney Road. The main challenge to the Church Street connection is the Greenbelt Natural Heritage System and woodlands. Not only will constructing a new road have impacts on the natural features but there would be very limited potential for

January 2018 43 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

development frontage along this link and thus the road would serve through traffic only. Given the relatively low volumes that this link would attract, and the fact that parallel arterials are available, it is recommended that this link be maintained for non-motorized traffic only.

Clements Road Extension across Duffins Creek The Clements Road extension across Church Street to Green Court is included in the ROP to provide a connection between the industrial / employment lands on both sides of the Pickering and Ajax boundary and to alleviate the high the traffic demands on Bayly Street. The extension will need to cross Duffins Creek, associated wetlands and designated area of natural and scientific interest. A significant bridge structure (approximately 300 m in length) will be required for the crossing. The crossing will have high cost and natural environment implications. The sensitivity test with the Clements Road extension indicates some reduction to volumes on Bayly Street between Church Street and Westney Road in the range of 200 peak hour trips, but also an increase in traffic volumes on Bayly Street west of Church Street towards Whites Road. The traffic benefits are modest as Clements Road is not a continuous east-west corridor that serves as a true alternative to Bayly Street. The Ajax TMP recommends removal of this link from its OP. Based on model results for 2031, and considering costs and environmental impacts, there is a case for removing this link from the Regional Official Plan. However, there are also merits in protecting the corridor for the longer term to support intensification in the Bayly Street corridor. The extension of Clements Road would provide additional network east-west capacity and connectivity through south Ajax. At this time, Clements Road is maintained as a future Type C Arterial road, subject to a feasibility and detailed environmental study.

January 2018 44 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Fifth Concession Road connection to Conlin Road between Salem Road and Anderson Street This proposed connection in the ROP would create a continuous corridor from York-Durham Line through to Clarington. While this parallel corridor could offset high demands on Taunton Road and serve growing development in the northern Pickering and Whitby, it is outside of the designated urban area. Additionally, in Whitby the connection would bisect Heber Down Conservation Area Background Map: Durham Region online interactive maps and require crossings of Lynde Creek and its tributaries and associated wetlands. The sensitivity test indicates that the connection of Fifth Concession Road and Conlin Road would attract approximately 400-500 peak hour trips in both directions during peak periods and reduce traffic demand on Taunton Road by 100-200 peak hour trips between Brock Street and Lake Ridge Road. Given the high environmental impacts, the modest impacts to traffic on adjacent corridors, and the proximity of Highway 7 and the extended Highway 407 East as alternatives, this link is a candidate for removal from the Regional Official Plan.

Stevenson Road Extension through Oshawa Airport The ROP currently shows a northerly extension of Stevenson Road through the Oshawa Executive Airport lands and a realignment of the corridor north of Taunton Road to connect to Thornton Road forming a new continuous Type B Arterial Road. Stevenson Road is currently discontinuous due to the location of the Oshawa Executive Airport south of Taunton Road. The City of Oshawa is committed to operating the airport until at least 2033 and aircraft movement is anticipated to grow in the near term after the closure of the Buttonville Airport in Markham. Any extension of Stevenson Road, with or without the realignment to connect with Thornton Road, will be beyond the 2031 horizon. The City of Oshawa’s OPA 159 adopted the deletion of the connection between Stevenson Road and Thornton Road, subject to approval by the Region.

January 2018 45 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

A sensitivity test with the northerly extension of Stevenson Road, from north of Rossland to Taunton Road, carries volumes of about 200-300 peak hour trips by direction. This traffic is diverted from multiple parallel corridors each with minor reductions in traffic volumes. The main function of the Stevenson Road extension would be to serve the redevelopment of the airport lands. This road connection should be protected for a future connection beyond 2031 if the airport lands were to be redeveloped.

Water Street Extension east of South Blair Street The extension of Water Street east of South Blair Street to Thickson Road is identified in the ROP as a future Type C Arterial road. A parallel active transportation connection is already provided by the Waterfront Trail through designated parklands from South Blair Street to Thickson Road. The easterly extension of Water Street is not supported by the Town of Whitby and no provisions were made in its TMP for a future extension. The Town of Whitby supports deletion of this link from its OP and the ROP. Although a sensitivity test with the extension of Water Street indicated low automobile volumes on the roadway, the road extension serves adjacent industrial lands. It is in the Region’s interest to protect for road connections to enable emergency access, efficient movement of goods, transit access and active transportation in anticipation of future land uses. It is recommended that future studies be undertaken to identify potential design approaches that could retain future connectivity needs, while respecting local concerns about economic, social or environmental constraints. Water Street could be maintained as a Type C arterial in the ROP with a special designation in the Whitby Official Plan that it be designed as a parkway-type road with potential features to focus use on active transportation and transit.

Williamson Drive connection across CPR Belleville east of Harwood Avenue Williamson Drive is an east-west Type C Arterial in the Town of Ajax. The west end of Williamson Drive is located at Ravenscoft Road and the east end is located at Audley Road. However, the corridor is currently discontinuous between Harwood Avenue and Thackery Drive due to the CPR Belleville rail line. The Ajax TMP estimated construction of a bridge over the railway line in the range of $10 M to $25 M. This road link would provide a mid-block alternative to Taunton Road and Rossland Road, and connect the communities on either side of the railway track with opportunities for more direct active transportation and transit connections. This road corridor should be protected for a future connection to support neighbourhood connectivity, active transportation and transit.

January 2018 46 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 5 2031 Proposed Road Network

The road network improvements and mobility improvements for the 2031 Proposed Network are identified and summarized in this chapter. 5.1 Provincial Highway Projects In addition to Regional road improvements, Provincial highway improvements are also needed to support growth in Durham Region. Various studies have been conducted regarding the rehabilitation and widening of Highway 401 to accommodate long-term capacity, operational and interchange needs as a result of a growing Durham Region. These recommendations for Highway 401 include:

 Widen Highway 401 from 10 to 12 lanes from Brock Road to the future Highway 412, which will include an extension of the Express- Collector system, widen from 6 to 10 lanes from the future Highway 412 to Liberty Street, and widen from 6 to 8 lanes from Liberty Street to Highway 35/115, maintaining the existing freeway configuration.

 Upgrade the interchange on Highway 401 at Lake Ridge Road from partial to full.

 Reconfigure the existing interchanges at Brock Street, Simcoe Street, Harmony Road, Regional Road 57 and Liberty Street.

 Remove the Ritson Road (at Drew Street) interchange with provision of a new diamond-style eastbound on-ramp and west-bound off-ramp along Ritson Road in conjunction with the reconfigured Simcoe Street interchange. Durham Region’s Official Plan has also made recommendations for future interchanges at Colonel Sam Drive, Townline Road Extension/Prestonvale Road, future Highway 418, and Lambs Road (with removal of the interchange at Bennett Road). The second phase of the Highway 407 East extension will include an additional 32 kilometres through the eastern portion of Durham Region providing direct connection with Highway 35/115 and to Highway 401 via Highway 418. Construction is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2017 for a portion of the Highway 407 mainline between Harmony Road and Taunton Road/Highway 418, with the remaining portion to be completed by 2020. Highway 407 East Phase 2, and modifications to the existing Phase 1, will include:

 A 4-lane extension of Highway 407 from Harmony Road to Highway 35/115 and will include interchanges at Enfield Road, Regional Road 57, Darlington-Clarke Townline Road, and Highway 35/115

 Highway 418 will provide a second north-south connection between Highway 407 and Highway 401. Located east of Courtice, future

January 2018 47 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

interchanges along Highway 418 will be constructed at Highway 407, Highway 2, Highway 401 and a partial interchange at Taunton Road.

 Additional interchanges will be added to Highway 407 in Seaton at Whites Road and Rossland Road extension. Durham Region’s Official Plan identifies additional future interchanges on Highway 407 at Westney Road, Salem Road, Cochrane Street, Thornton Road and Townline Road, as well as on Highway 412 at Rossland Road. Highway 7, from west of York-Durham Line to Baldwin Street (Highway 7/12) is under Provincial jurisdiction. Through the Seaton area, Highway 7 will support planned employment lands, primarily on the south side. From a strictly capacity perspective, Highway 407 (tolled) and parallel east-west arterial roads have sufficient capacity without widening of Highway 7 through Seaton by 2031. However, the development of the employment lands will place demands on Highway 7 to accommodate additional traffic, including commercial vehicle traffic, and provide access to the employment lands via collector/local roads and/or direct driveway access. Widening to 4 lanes between the hamlets of Green River and Brougham would be appropriate to serve development growth. 5.2 Regional Road Projects The Regional road network capacity improvement projects are identified and summarized in Exhibit 5.1. These projects comprise road widening projects, construction of new alignments and construction of new structures such as bridges or grade separations. Using the future travel demand model, volume to capacity ratios were extracted to identify heavily congested areas of the road network. Projects with high volumes to capacity (i.e. v/c ratio greater than 0.9) were highlighted as critical items. However, a number of these projects may encounter constructability issues such as environmental or physical geometric/operational constraints. Projects were assessed based on both congestion condition and feasibility.

5.2.1 Key Projects Descriptions of the key projects to support growth in the primary growth areas are provided below.

5.2.1.1 Pickering Urban Growth Centre The Pickering Urban Growth Centre in Downtown Pickering is one of two urban growth centres in Durham Region, identified by the Province’s Places to Grow Act and Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006). These centres provide a significant share of future residential and employment growth while offering complete communities. Improvements for the Pickering Urban Growth Centre will be transit-focused along Highway 2, providing efficient rapid transit service across the Region.

January 2018 48 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Key transportation projects defined by previous plans to support the Pickering Urban Growth Centre are as follows:

 Bayly Street will be widened from 5 to 6/7 lanes, addressing existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in the area. Bottlenecks will be eliminated between existing widened sections and will provide continuity to several north-south connections in Pickering. High Frequency Bus in Shared Lane service will be supported between Whites Road and Brock Road, with the potential for Rapid Transit service in the future and providing connection to Pickering GO Station.

 A significant improvement in Durham will be widening Kingston Road (Highway 2) to support east-west Rapid Transit service across the Region. Transit services will include an exclusive right-of-way, connecting urban areas from Pickering into Oshawa and needed inter-municipal transportation services. Road improvements on Whites Road, Liverpool Road, and Brock Road, will enhance transit service on Highway 2 and optimize transit priority opportunity areas.

 A small portion of Liverpool Road will be widened from 5 to 6 lanes between Highway 401 and Highway 2 addressing projected capacity deficiency in Pickering north-south travel near Highway 401. This expansion will also support development to adjacent retail and commercial land uses and accommodate the demand for vehicle access to Highway 401 and the Pickering GO Station.

5.2.1.2 Oshawa Urban Growth Centre Centrally located in Downtown Oshawa, the Oshawa Urban Growth Centre will foster intensification and transit-oriented development. Growth in Oshawa will be heavily influenced by transit with King Street (Highway 2) providing efficient east-west Rapid Transit service across the Region while Rapid Transit service on Simcoe Street will connect to UOIT, new development areas and Highway 407. The extension of GO Rail service to Bowmanville will also bring commuter rail service to the proposed Central Oshawa GO Station. Key projects:

 King Street (Highway 2) will provide Rapid Transit service from Pickering to Simcoe Street with protection for future service extension to Highway 418. A further discussion of this major project is provided in the Transit Network Development Report.

5.2.1.3 Seaton The largest urban development area in Central Pickering is Seaton, which will encompass residential and employment areas adjacent to an agricultural preserve area. Plans for Seaton include the provision of over

January 2018 49 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

35,000 jobs along with an ultimate population of 70,000. Planned road improvements and connections in Seaton provide access to the developing residential and employment lands as well as the Highway 407 East extension and improved access to 14th Avenue in York Region. Major Regional roads in the Seaton area include: Whites Road, Rossland Road, Brock Road, Taunton Road, Highway 7 and the realignment of Whitevale Road. Key projects:

 Whites Road will be realigned and extended along Sideline 26 to Highway 7, including a new bridge crossing over the West Duffins Creek just south of Taunton Road. Road widening from the existing 2 lanes to 6 lanes is planned and will also require a new grade separation of the CP Rail corridor. The expansion of Whites Road will require appropriate phasing, in which the ultimate 6-lane cross- section will include HOV lanes to accommodate High Frequency Bus service. In addition, a new interchange will be constructed for access to Highway 407.

 Rossland Road has recently been realigned at Church Street in Ajax to eliminate a jogged intersection. Expansion and extension of Rossland Road northerly to Highway 7 are part of the Central Pickering Development Plan. Rossland Road will be realigned westerly along Third Concession Road before turning northerly to connect to the existing Sideline 22 alignment. A 4-lane cross-section is planned, including a new grade separation with the CP Rail. The future extension of Rossland Road will require necessary phasing with Seaton development. In addition, a new interchange will be constructed to connect with Highway 407.

 The first phase of road widening on Brock Road to 4 lanes includes the realignment around Brougham and a new interchange at Highway 407. Further widening to the ultimate 6-lane cross-section will accommodate long-term transportation needs in Seaton’s employment and residential lands. HOV lanes will be integrated on Brock Road including High Frequency Bus service and providing access to the future Pickering Airport north of Highway 7. Brock Road expansion will address existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Pickering, resulting from growth in the Region.

 A future connection and realignment of Whitevale Road is planned, connecting to 14th Avenue in York Region. The proposed realignment of Whitevale Road has specific phasing requirements relative to the development in Seaton. The first phase will focus on the urban development east of West Duffins Creek, in which a new 4-lane connection is planned to support the vision for Central Pickering. The western portion of Whitevale Road will include a 2-lane connection

January 2018 50 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

over the agricultural preserve west of West Duffins Creek, providing access to York-Durham Line.

 Taunton Road is recommended to be widened from its existing 5- lane cross-section to 6/7 lanes. This expansion will address existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in Pickering and Ajax and provide necessary inter-regional transportation. Taunton Road will include HOV lanes to accommodate High Frequency Bus service and provide continuity to East Durham. Other supporting infrastructure to accommodate growth in Seaton includes the recent opening of Highway 407 East extension, future GO Train expansion to Seaton, transit service in HOV lanes on Taunton Road, Whites Road and Brock Road, as well as frequent transit service on Highway 7 and Rossland Road.

5.2.1.4 North Brooklin Through planning for expansion in North Brooklin, the Town of Whitby has determined that the town will require an alternative transportation corridor to Highway 7/12 (Baldwin Street), which currently goes through Downtown Brooklin. Though this is a Town of Whitby initiative, the proposed Brooklin By-pass, along with other long-term improvements to municipal roadways, have been examined to address the north-south capacity needs in the vicinity of Brooklin. Key projects:

 The Town of Whitby has proposed alternative solutions for Highway 7/12 with involvement from the Ministry of Transportation to utilize a portion of Lake Ridge Road from Highway 7 to Brawley Road and then along Brawley Road between Lake Ridge Road and Baldwin Street (the existing Highway 7/12 corridor) as a “by-pass” of Brooklin. (Brooklin Study, December 2015).

 In addition to the above by-pass alternative, it has been proposed that Thickson Road be widened from north of Taunton Road to Brawley Road from the existing 2-lane cross-section to a 4/5-lane cross- section. Future improvements in this area are recommended due to increased development and capacity demand. Thickson Road is also a primary route for truck traffic and goods movement.

 Upgrades to Winchester Road will soon commence between Baldwin Street and Garrard Road, with a widening of the corridor to a 3-lane cross-section. A 5-lane cross-section will be accommodated between Anderson Street and Cachet Boulevard. Intersection modifications at Thickson Road, including the widening of Thickson Road from Winchester Road to the Highway 407 interchange area, are planned for 2018 construction.

January 2018 51 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

5.2.1.5 Central Whitby Limited growth is expected in the established areas of Whitby, however proposed urban areas in West Whitby adjacent to the future Highway 412 and development along Dundas Street (Highway 2) will require the Region to address capacity deficiencies as well as accommodate access to land uses fronting on Dundas Street. Key projects:

 North-south capacity deficiencies will be addressed with road widenings to Hopkins Street and Thickson Road. More specifically, the ultimate 6-lane cross-section for Thickson Road will improve access to Rapid Transit service on Dundas Street (Highway 2), accommodate demand for vehicle access to and across Highway 401, and serve as a main feeder route for goods movement in Durham. Hopkins Street will require a new grade separation across the CP Rail and also accommodate higher demand for vehicle access across Highway 401 with the addition of a new overpass of Highway 401.

 A new 3-lane extension of Consumers Drive is under construction from Thickson Road to Thornton Road, with the potential for protection of a further easterly extension to Fox Street. This latter portion of Consumers Drive connecting to Fox Street and Laval Drive will require further study due to issues regarding the railway crossing and jurisdiction.

5.2.1.6 South Oshawa Key projects:

 Gibb Street/Olive Avenue will be widened to 4/5 lanes, east of Stevenson Road to Ritson Road, including a new 4-lane connection from Simcoe Street to Drew Street. This future connection will address neighbourhood traffic concerns, relieve adjacent routes and reduce circuitous travel caused by road network discontinuity and will improve network operations and road safety by alleviating unnecessary turning movements. It will also serve as an east-west route to access the future Central Oshawa GO Station.

 Recommendations to widen Stevenson Road to a 5-lane cross- section have been examined to address projected north-south capacity deficiency in Oshawa and manage growth in access to Highway 401. Road widening from CP Rail to Rossland Road will improve road safety through provision of a dedicated left-turn lane and centre median, where required, and maximize through-lane capacity.

January 2018 52 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

 Thornton Road modifications will include a new grade separation of the CP Rail and widening to 4 lanes from King Street to Consumers Drive.

5.2.1.7 Clarington Growth Areas (Bowmanville, Courtice, and Newcastle) In addition to the extension of GO Train service along Lakeshore East to Bowmanville, growth in Clarington will require additional capacity to facilitate east-west and north-south connections to adjacent communities. Regional Road projects in Clarington include:

 Regional Road 57 will undergo widening to a 4 lane cross-section from Baseline Road to Nash Road. The widening will help address projected capacity deficiency as a result of growth in Bowmanville. It will also support the traffic to and from Highway 401, which may face higher demand due to the limited number of Highway 401 interchanges and crossings.

 Liberty Street is recommended to be widened to 3 lanes, with 1 lane in each direction for general purpose and the provision of either a left- turn lane or centre median, where required. These improvements would improve safety and efficiency of access to adjacent lands along the roadway and facilitate access to Highway 401. Further study is needed to confirm the final lane configuration.

 A new alignment for North Street is recommended to accommodate growth in Newcastle and improve access from Newcastle to Highway 35/115.

 A new interchange at Prestonvale Road has also been proposed along Highway 401.

January 2018 53 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 5.1: Regional Road Expansion Projects EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Brock Road #1 Widen from 5 to 6 lanes from Addresses existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Completed Finch Avenue #37 to Taunton Pickering resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development Rd #4 of the north urban areas of Pickering and Ajax, including Seaton and the future Pickering airport. Supports provision of higher-order transit service in designated Major Transit Corridor. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 407. Brock Road #1 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes from Addresses existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Completed. Taunton Road #4 to 5th Pickering resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development Concession Road of the north urban areas of Pickering and Ajax, including Seaton and the future Pickering airport. Supports provision of frequent transit service in designated Major Transit Corridor. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 407. Brock Road #1 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes from Addresses longer-term needs for Seaton. Accommodates high- Completed Taunton Road #4 to 5th frequency bus service in HOV lane. Concession Road Brock Road #1 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes from 5th Construction to realign the existing 2-lane to a 4-lane cross-section is Completed Concession Road to Highway 7 currently underway in conjunction with the Highway 407 interchange on the new alignment of Brock Road. Widening to 6 lanes will further accommodate long-term needs in north Pickering including employment lands and the future Pickering Airport. Societal impacts will also be associated with increased vehicle traffic on the community of Brougham. Simcoe Street Widen from 2/4 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Oshawa Completed #2 Conlin Road to Winchester resulting from growth in the Region, especially north Oshawa, and Road #3 development of the university. Supports provision of higher-order transit service in designated Major Transit Corridor and to Future Central Oshawa GO Station. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to future Highway 407. Simcoe Street Widen from 2 to 3 lanes south of Operational improvements to accommodate development growth. Not Started #2 King Street to south of Simcoe Street is the south gateway to Port Perry. Greenway Boulevard

January 2018 54 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Winchester Widen from 2 to 3/4 lanes from Accommodates growth resulting from development in Brooklin. Completed Road #3 Baldwin Street to Garrard Road Improves road safety through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and (5 lanes between Anderson raised median, where required. Maximizes through lane capacity. St/Watford Drive and Cachet Boulevard) Taunton Road Widen from 4 to 6 lanes from Addresses existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in Completed #4 York Durham Line to Brock Pickering/Ajax resulting from growth in the Region. Supports Road # 1 development in the north urban areas of Pickering, Ajax and Whitby. a) York Durham Line to Provides needed inter-regional transportation capacity. Supports Twelvetrees Bridge provision of higher-order transit service in designated Major Transit b) Twelvetrees Bridge to Brock Corridor. Eliminates bottleneck between existing widened sections. Road including structure Provides continuity to Westney Road #31 and Lake Ridge Road #23. widening Taunton Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes from Addresses growth in east-west demand, accommodates high- Not #4 Brock Road #1 to Brock Street frequency transit in HOV lanes started. #Hwy 12 Taunton Road Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes from Addresses growth in east-west demand, accommodates high- Not #4 Brock Street #Hwy 12 to Simcoe frequency transit in HOV lanes started. Street #2 Central Street Urbanize and improve corridor Provide urban cross-section consistent with developed environment in Not #5 from Canso Drive to Brock Road Claremont. Improve pedestrian facilities and stormwater started. #1 management. Liberty Street Widen from 2 to 3 lanes from Addresses concerns with safety and efficiency of access to adjacent Not #14 Baseline Road to King Street lands through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and raised median, started. (Hwy 2) where required. Maximizes through lane capacity. Facilitates access to Highway 401. Requires further study to confirm final lane configuration. Ritson Road Widen from 2/3 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Oshawa Not #16 Taunton Road #4 to Conlin resulting from growth in the Region, especially north Oshawa. started. Road Ritson Road Widen from 2 to 4 lanes from Accommodates operational needs of adjacent development growth, Not #16 Conlin Road to Britannia Avenue i.e. Kedron Part II Plan to the east. started.

January 2018 55 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS North Street Construct new alignment 2 to 3 Supports growth in Newcastle, especially in the North Village area. Not #17 lanes north of CPR to Provides improved operations and safety for access to Highway started. Concession Road 3 35/115 Bayly St#22 Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes from Supports intensification in the south portion of the Pickering City Not Liverpool Road #29 to Brock Centre, including facilitating transit access to the Pickering GO started. Road # 1 Station. Addresses existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in Pickering/Ajax resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development in the south urban areas of Ajax and Whitby for both residential and employment uses. Bayly Street Widen from 5 to 7 lanes from Addresses high east-west travel demands through south part of Not #22 Brock Road #1 Westney Road Pickering and Ajax. Supports high frequency transit. started. #31 Bayly Street Widen from 5 to 7 lanes from Addresses high east-west travel demands through south part of Not #22 Westney Road #31 to Harwood Pickering and Ajax. Supports high frequency transit. started. Avenue #44 Bayly Street Widen from 4 to 6 lanes from Addresses high east-west travel demands through south part of Not #22 Harwood to Salem Road #41 Pickering and Ajax. Supports high frequency transit. started. Victoria Street Construct new alignment and Addresses existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in Completed #22 widen from 2 to 5 lanes from Whitby resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development in South Blair Street to west of the south urban area of Whitby for both residential and employment Thickson Road uses. Improves road safety by eliminating geometric deficiencies associated with tight curves. Eliminates bottleneck between existing widened sections. Provides continuity to the widening of several north-south roads, including the future Hopkins Street grade separation of Highway 401 and Thickson Road. Allows for future widening of Highway 401. Accommodates extension of multi-use path. Victoria Street Widen from 2/3 to 4/5 lanes from Addresses existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in Completed #22 east of Thickson Road to west of Whitby and Oshawa resulting from growth in the region. Facilitates Stevenson Road access to Oshawa GO station, including high frequency transit and active transportation.

January 2018 56 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Bloor Street Widen from 3 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected east-west capacity deficiency in Oshawa Not #22 Ritson Road #16 to Farewell resulting from growth in the Region, especially east Oshawa. started. Street #56 Improves safety and efficiency of access to adjacent retail/ commercial land uses through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and raised median, where required. Eliminates bottleneck between existing widened sections. Bloor Street Construct new alignment to 4 Addresses existing and projected east-west capacity deficiencies in Not #22 lanes, with new CPR grade Oshawa resulting from growth in the Region, especially east Oshawa started. separation and bridge crossing and west Clarington (Courtice). Facilitates access to Hwy 401 at of Farewell Creek from Harmony Harmony Road. Addresses road safety concern with at-grade railway Road #33 to Grandview Dr crossing. Improves road safety by eliminating geometric deficiencies associated with tight curves and jog in alignment. Provides continuity to the planned future widening/extension of Townline Road #55. Bloor Street Widen from 2 to 3 lanes and Addresses east-west traffic demands resulting from growth in south Not #22 improve profile from Prestonvale Durham, especially the Courtice and Bowmanville areas. Improves started. Road to Courtice Road #34 road profile and accommodates left turns to address safety concerns. Maximizes through lane capacity, consistent with Type A classification. Facilitates development in south Courtice and access to the future Courtice GO Station. Lake Ridge Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Whitby In Road #23 Bayly Street #22 to #Hwy 2 resulting from growth in the Region, especially east Ajax and west progress. Whitby. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to new Highway 401 interchange and across the freeway. Provides important connection to northern areas of the Region. Offers alternate route to Brock Street (#Hwy12) for heavy vehicle traffic. Provides continuity to the widening north of Kingston Road #Hwy 2. Lake Ridge Widen from 2 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south deficiency in Whitby resulting from Not Road #23 #Hwy 2 to Rossland Road #28 growth in the Region, especially east Ajax and west Whitby. started. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to new Highway 401 interchange. Provides important connection to northern areas of the Region. Offers alternate route to Brock Street (#Hwy12) for heavy vehicle traffic. Provides continuity to the widening south of Kingston Road #Hwy 2.

January 2018 57 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Consumers Construct new connection to 3 Addresses projected east-west capacity deficiency in Whitby/Oshawa Completed. Drive #25 lanes west of Thickson Road resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development of and #26 to Thornton Road #52 improves access to employment lands and retail/commercial uses in south urban areas of Whitby and Oshawa. Improves road safety by eliminating geometric deficiencies associated with the tight curves on Champlain Avenue. Provides continuity to the widening of Thornton Road #52 and potentially a connection to Stevenson Road #53 and the Highway 401 interchange. Supports Durham College/Trent University/dLAB development and facilitates access to the future Thornton’s Corners GO Station. Thickson Road Widen from 2 to 4 lanes from Addresses existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Completed. #26 Wentworth Street #60 to CNR Whitby resulting from growth in the Region and the limited number of Kingston Highway 401 interchanges and crossings. Supports development of the south urban area of Whitby and Oshawa and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial/industrial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to and across Highway 401 and to future Highway 407. Serves as main feeder route for goods movement. Thickson Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes from Addresses existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Not #26 Consumers Drive #25 to Dundas Whitby resulting from growth in the Region and the limited number of started. Street (Hwy 2) Highway 401 interchanges and crossings. Supports development of the south and north urban areas of Whitby and Oshawa and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to and across Highway 401 and to future Highway 407. Serves as main feeder route for goods movement. Thickson Road Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes from Accommodates growth in Brooklin/north Whitby with access to Not #26 Taunton Road #4 to Winchester Highway 407 and facilitates goods movement started. Road #3 Thickson Road Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes from Accommodates growth in Brooklin and provides improved connection Not #26 Winchester Road #3 to S. of for goods movement to Highway 12 and access to Highway 407. started. Brawley Road

January 2018 58 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Altona Road Widen from 2 to 3 lanes from Addresses existing and projected capacity deficiencies in Pickering Completed. #27 Strouds Ln to Finch Av #37 North-South sub-area resulting from growth in the Region, especially west and north Pickering, and road network discontinuity at the west Durham boundary. Rossland Widen from 3 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected east-west capacity deficiency in Oshawa Not Road #28 Ritson Road #16 to Harmony resulting from growth in the Region, especially north Oshawa. started. Road #33 Improves network operations and road safety by providing necessary turning movement capacity to support growth in the east Oshawa area. Rossland Construct new bridge crossing Addresses missing link in the transportation network. Provides Completed. Road #28 of Harmony Creek tributary and opportunities for emergency service, transit service, cycling and widen from 2 to 3 lanes from pedestrian movements across creek. Improves access to Harmony Road #33 to E. of conservation area and parkland, but also has environmental impacts. Townline Road #55 Rossland Construct new alignment to 4 Provides required capacity and enhances linkage between Seaton Completed. Road #28 lanes with CPR grade community and other existing and developing areas in Pickering to separation from Brock Road #1 the south and east. Construction roughly along the existing alignment to Sideline 24 of Concession 3 and Sideline 22 including a new grade separation with the CP Rail corridor.

Rossland Construct new alignment to 5 Provides required capacity and enhances linkage between Seaton Completed. Road #28 lanes from Sideline 24 to community and other existing and developing areas in Pickering to Whitevale Road (realignment) the south and east. Construction roughly along the existing alignment of Concession 3 and Sideline 22

Rossland Construct new alignment to 5 Provides required capacity and enhances linkage between Seaton Completed. Road #28 lanes from Whitevale Road community and other existing and developing areas in Pickering to (realignment) to Highway 7 the south and east. Construction roughly along the existing alignment of Sideline 22.

January 2018 59 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Rossland Construct new alignment to 4 Provides required capacity and enhances linkage between Seaton Completed. Road #28 lanes from Highway 7 to community and other existing and developing areas in Pickering to Highway 407. the south and east. Construction roughly along the existing alignment of Sideline 22.

Liverpool Road Widen from 5 to 6 lanes from Addresses projected capacity deficiency in Pickering North-South Not #29 Hwy 401 to Kingston Road sub-area resulting from growth in the Region, and the limited number started. #Hwy 2 of Highway 401 interchanges and crossings. Supports Pickering City Centre development by improving access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Provides improved access to Pickering GO Station. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401. Westney Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Ajax resulting Not #31 Bayly Street #22 to south of from growth in the Region and the limited number of Highway 401 started. CN/GO rail corridor interchanges and crossings. Supports development of the north urban area of Ajax. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401. Westney Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Ajax resulting Not #31 Hwy 401 to Kingston Road from growth in the Region and the limited number of Highway 401 started. #Hwy 2 interchanges and crossings. Supports development of the north urban area of Ajax. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to and across Highway 401. Westney Road Widen from 2 to 5 lanes from Supports development of the north urban area of Ajax and to the Ajax Completed. #31 Rossland Road to Taunton GO Station and improves the efficiency and safety of Westney Road Road #4 as a key component of the Region's arterial network. Westney Road Construct new Greenwood by- Supports development of the north urban areas of Pickering and Ajax. Completed. #31 pass to 2 lanes from S. of Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 407 with Greenwood to N. of Greenwood connection to future interchange. Mitigates societal impacts associated with increased vehicle traffic on the community of Greenwood.

January 2018 60 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Harmony Road Widen from 3 to 5 lanes from Addresses existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Completed. #33 Rossland Road #28 to Taunton Oshawa resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development Road #4 of north urban area of Oshawa and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401 and Highway 407. Harmony Road Widen from 2 to 5 lanes from Addresses existing and projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Completed. #33 Taunton Road #4 to Conlin Oshawa resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development Road of north urban area of Oshawa and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401 and Highway 407. Wilson Road Widen from 3 to 4 lanes from Addresses north-south capacity deficiency in Oshawa resulting from Not #35 Bloor Street #22 to Olive growth in the Region. Improves access to adjacent retail/commercial started. Avenue #59 land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access across Highway 401. Hopkins Street Construct new connection to 4 Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Whitby Completed. #36 lanes from Victoria Street #22 to resulting from growth in the Region and the limited number of Consumers Drive #25 with Highway 401 crossings. Supports development of and improves Highway 401 overpass access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Hopkins Street Widen from 2 to 3 lanes, with Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Whitby Not #36 new CPR grade separation from resulting from growth in the Region and the limited number of started. Consumers Drive #25 to Dundas Highway 401 crossings. Supports development of and improves Street (Hwy 2) access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Addresses road safety concerns by eliminating at-grade railway crossing and providing dedicated left turn lane. Maximizes through lane capacity. Accommodates demand for vehicle access across Highway 401. Finch Av #37 Widen from 2 to 3 lanes from Accommodates growth in auto demand resulting from development in Not Altona Road #27 to Brock Road north Pickering. Improves road safety and access to adjacent lands started. #1 through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and raised median, where required. Maximizes through lane capacity. Connects recent intersection improvements designed to support widening.

January 2018 61 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Whites Road Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Pickering Not #38 Kingston Road #Hwy 2 to Finch resulting from growth in the Region and the limited number of started. Av #37 including structure Highway 401 interchanges and crossings. Supports development of widening Central Pickering and the future Pickering airport. Supports provision of high-frequency transit service in HOV lane. Whites Road Widen from 2 to 6 lanes, with Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Pickering Completed #38 new CPR grade separation from resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development of Central Finch Av #37 to 3rd Concession Pickering and the future Pickering airport. Improves road safety by Road eliminating at-grade railway crossing. Supports provision of high- frequency transit service in HOV lane. Whites Road Construct new alignment to Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Pickering Completed. #38 Sideline 26 (future Whites Road resulting from growth in the Region and the road network discontinuity connection) and widen from 2 to at the west Durham boundary. Supports development of Central 6 lanes across West Duffins Pickering and the future Pickering airport. Supports provision of high- Creek frequency transit service in HOV lane. Whites Road Construct new connection to 6/7 Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Pickering Completed. #38 lanes from Taunton Road #4 to resulting from growth in the Region and the road network discontinuity Whitevale Road (along Sideline at the west Durham boundary. Supports development of Central 26) Pickering and the future Pickering airport. Supports provision of high- frequency transit service in HOV lane. Whites Road Construct new alignment to 4 Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Pickering Completed. #38 lanes from Whitevale Road to resulting from growth in the Region and the road network discontinuity Highway 7 at the west Durham boundary. Supports development of Central Pickering and the future Pickering airport. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to and across Highway 407 with new Highway 407 interchange. Whites Road Widen from 4 to 6/7 lanes from Supports development of Central Pickering and the future Pickering Completed. #38 Whitevale Road to Highway 7 airport. Supports provision of high-frequency transit service in HOV lane.

January 2018 62 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Thornton Road Widen from 2 to 3 lanes from Supports development of and improves access to employment lands Not #52 Champlain Avenue #25 to and retail/commercial uses in south urban areas of Whitby and started. Consumers Drive #25 Oshawa. Improves road safety through provision of dedicated left-turn lane. Maximizes through lane capacity. Provides continuity to the extension of Consumers Drive #25. Facilitates access to future Thornton's Corners GO Station at Consumers Drive extension. Thornton Road Widen from 2 to 4 lanes with Supports development of and improves access to employment lands Not #52 new CPR grade separation from and retail/commercial uses in south urban areas of Whitby and started. Consumers Drive #25 to King Oshawa. Improves road safety through provision of dedicated left-turn Street (Hwy 2) lane and raised median, where required, and elimination of the CPR level crossing. Maximizes through lane capacity. Provides continuity to the extension of Consumers Drive #25. Facilitates access to future Thornton's Corners GO Station at Consumers Drive extension, including active transportation and transit connections. Stevenson Widen from 4 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Oshawa Not Road #53 CPR Bellville to Bond Street resulting from growth in the Region, especially in north Oshawa and started. (Hwy 2) north Whitby, and the limited number of Highway 401 interchanges and crossings. Supports development and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Improves road safety through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and raised median, where required. Maximizes through lane capacity. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401. Stevenson Widen from 3/4 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiency in Oshawa Not Road #53 Bond Street (Hwy 2) to resulting from growth in the Region, especially in north Oshawa and started. Rossland Road #28 north Whitby, and the limited number of Highway 401 interchanges and crossings. Supports development and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Improves road safety through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and raised median, where required. Maximizes through lane capacity. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401. Supports potential long-term future redevelopment of the Oshawa Executive Airport lands including the extension of Stevenson Road to Taunton Road.

January 2018 63 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Waverley Widen from 2 to 4 lanes from Addresses projected capacity deficiency resulting from growth in Completed. Road #57 Baseline Road to King Street central Clarington and the limited number of Highway 401 #Hwy 2 interchanges and crossings. Supports development of the Bowmanville urban area and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401 and the future Bowmanville GO Station. Waverley Widen from 2 to 4 lanes from Addresses projected capacity deficiency resulting from growth in Completed. Road #57 King Street #Hwy 2 to Nash central Clarington and the limited number of Highway 401 Road interchanges and crossings. Supports development of the Bowmanville urban area and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 401 and the future Bowmanville GO Station. Manning Road Construct new 3 lane connection A direct connection between Manning Road and Adelaide Avenue Completed. #58 to 3 lanes, with new crossing of would function as an arterial road providing an alternate east-west Corbett Creek from Garrard route within the Town of Whitby and the City of Oshawa. Vehicles Road to Thornton Road #52 using this connection will reduce the demand on adjacent busy roads, particularly Dundas Street / King Street and Rossland Road. Provides an alternative route for traffic displaced from Dundas St/King Street by implementation of BRT. Other benefits include reduced response time for emergency vehicles, a connecting link for pedestrians and cyclists and improved opportunities for transit service. Adelaide Construct new bridge crossing Accommodates projected growth in auto demands resulting from Completed. Avenue #58 of Farewell Creek with a new 3- development in Courtice. Provides options and relieves adjacent lane connection from Townline routes in the east Oshawa/west Clarington area. Improves road safety Road #55 to Trulls Road and access to adjacent lands through provision of dedicated left-turn lane and raised median, where required. Maximizes through lane capacity. Gibb St/ Olive Widen from 3 to 4/5 lanes east Accommodates projected growth in auto demands resulting from Completed. Avenue #59 of Stevenson Road #53 to development in the Oshawa area. Supports development and Simcoe Street #2 improves access to nearby retail/commercial land uses in the Oshawa Centre area and the evolving Stevenson Road #53/Highway 401 district. Eliminates bottleneck between existing widened sections.

January 2018 64 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Gibb St/ Olive Construct new connection and Accommodates projected growth in auto demands resulting from Completed. Avenue #59 widen from 2/3 lanes to 4/5 development in the Oshawa Urban Growth Centre. Supports access lanes from Simcoe Street #2 to to the future Central Oshawa GO Station. Addresses neighbourhood Ritson Road #16 traffic concerns, relieves adjacent routes and reduces circuitous travel caused by road network discontinuity. Improves network operations and road safety by alleviating unnecessary turning movements. Provides opportunity for redevelopment of affected lands. Whitevale Construct new connection to 4 Supports development in Central Pickering. Realignment of Whitevale Completed. Road lanes from Brock Road to West Road with new connection west from Brock Road passing south of (Realignment) Limit of Phase 1 the Hamlet and crossing Duffins Creek to connect with York-Durham Line at 14th Avenue. Whitevale Construct new connection to 4 Supports development in Central Pickering. Realignment of Whitevale Completed. Road lanes West Limit of Phase 1 to Road with new connection west from Brock Road passing south of (Realignment) East of West Duffins Creek the hamlet and crossing Duffins Creek to connect with York-Durham Line at 14th Avenue. Whitevale Construct new connection to 2 Supports development in Central Pickering. Realignment of Whitevale Completed. Road lanes from York Durham Line to Road with new connection west from Brock Road passing south of (Realignment) East of West Duffins Creek the Hamlet and crossing Duffins Creek to connect with York-Durham Line at 14th Avenue. Whitevale Widen from 2 to 4 lanes from Supports development in Central Pickering. Realignment of Whitevale Completed Road east of Sideline 16 to Brock Road with new connection west from Brock Road passing south of (Realignment) Road the Hamlet and crossing Duffins Creek to connect with York-Durham Line at 14th Avenue with additional widening east of Broad Road. Regional Widen railway overpass tunnel Addresses cross-section and vertical clearance deficiencies of Not Started Highway 2 from 1 to 2 lanes (Bridge existing structure to improve safety performance. Accommodates Replacement) east of Newcastle Emergency Detour Route operations during incidents on Highway 401. Better accommodates future traffic demands along Regional Highway 2.

January 2018 65 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

EA CORRIDOR PROJECT DESCRIPTION RATIONALE STATUS Brock Street Widen from 3 to 5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Whitby Completed. #Hwy 12 Rossland Road #28 to Taunton resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development of the Road #4 northern urban areas of Whitby and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 407. Eliminates bottleneck between existing widened sections. Baldwin Street Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes from Addresses projected north-south capacity deficiencies in Whitby Not #Hwy 12 Taunton Road #4 to South Limit resulting from growth in the Region. Supports development of the started. of MTO jurisdiction northern urban areas of Whitby and improves access to adjacent retail/commercial land uses. Accommodates demand for vehicle access to Highway 407. Eliminates bottleneck between existing widened sections. Toronto Street Widen from 2 to 4 lanes, with Accommodates projected growth in auto demands resulting from Not #Hwy 47 intersection modifications, from development in the northern part of the Region, primarily Uxbridge started. York Durham Line #30 to and Port Perry. Addresses impact of two streams of traffic, from Goodwood Road #21 Regional Highway 47 to the northeast and from Goodwood Road #21 to the east, converging into one facility. With intersection modifications at Goodwood, can facilitate ROP objective of creating a continuous Type A arterial route. Improves access to adjacent employment lands and enhances goods movement, especially for aggregate resource material.

January 2018 66 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

5.3 Network Performance of Proposed Network A network scenario with the proposed road network improvements was modelled using DRPTM. The model results of the proposed network lies between the Base and Enhanced network results as shown in Exhibit 5.2. In Section 4.3, it was acknowledged that congestion would not be completely eliminated even with the substantial road and transit improvements assumed to be in place in the Enhanced scenario. Strong population and employment growth in Durham will outpace the Region’s ability to construct additional capacity, nor is it sustainable to do so. Screenline results for the proposed network are illustrated in Exhibit 5.3. A more detailed comparison table of screenline results is provided in Appendix A.

January 2018 67 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 5.2: 2031 Proposed Network – Congested Links

AM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

PM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

January 2018 68 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 5.3: 2031 Proposed Network – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results

January 2018 69 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 5.4: 2031 Proposed Network – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results

January 2018 70 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 6 Road Needs Beyond 2031

In addition to identifying modifications to address the Region’s transportation needs to the 2031 horizon year, a forward looking view of potential infrastructure needs beyond 2031 was undertaken. 6.1 Beyond 2031 Population and Employment Forecasts The current Regional Official Plan allocates growth to 2031. In order to establish road network needs beyond 2031, a preliminary forecast of the “full build-out” of anticipated future development areas was developed by Regional staff. The “Beyond 2031” land use forecasts for modelling purposes are presented in Exhibit 6.1. These land use forecasts are intended for use in this preliminary assessment of travel demand Beyond 2031 only as they do not account for intensification within the existing urban areas. The forecasts include 2056 population and employment in the Future Growth Areas identified in the Growing Durham study, which formed the background work to prepare Regional Official Plan Amendment 128 (the Region’s Growth Plan Conformity exercise). The forecasts used in the Beyond 2031 analysis also includes the urban expansion areas of northeast Pickering and parts of north Oshawa, Whitby and Courtice that were included in the Council-adopted ROPA 128 but not included in the OMB approved ROPA 128 in January 2013. The Future Growth Areas, identified in Schedule ‘F’ of the Council-adopted ROPA 128 (June 2009) and urban expansion areas not approved through ROPA 128, are shown in Exhibit 6.2. Outside of Durham, the 2041 municipal totals from the Provincial Growth Plan were used to factor up population and employment for the municipalities within the GTA. Outside of the GTA, the growth between 2031 and 2041 for the “Outer Ring” municipalities was used to factor up population and employment for the external zones in the model.

January 2018 71 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 6.1: Population and Employment Growth Beyond 2031 Future Future Population Employment Growth Areas Growth Areas Population Employment

2031 2031 Population Employment 2056 2056 2056 2056 Ajax 137,300 44,600 - - 137,300 44,600 Brock 13,800 4,400 - - 13,800 4,400 Clarington 139,600 36,200 128,800 19,700 268,400 55,900 Oshawa 195,100 85,400 19,800 11,200 215,000 96,600 Pickering 188,600 80,800 61,300 19,800 249,800 100,600 Scugog 22,100 8,900 - - 22,100 8,900 Uxbridge 23,500 8,900 - - 23,500 8,900 Whitby 191,900 71,400 19,300 5,600 211,200 77,000 Durham 912,000 340,500 229,200 56,300 1,141,100 396,800 Growth +25% +17%

January 2018 72 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 6.2: Beyond 2031 Growth Areas

Urban Area in Council-Adopted ROPA 128 but not Approved by OMB - Considered as Future Growth Area

January 2018 73 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

6.2 Transportation Demand and Network Implications The Beyond 2031 population and employment forecasts and the 2031 proposed road network were used to develop travel demand for the Beyond 2031 scenario. Travel demand is expected to increase by 25% region-wide as shown in Exhibit 6.3. Exhibit 6.3: Beyond 2031 Travel Demand (AM Peak Period)

2031 BEYOND 2031 METRIC BASE Demand % Diff Auto Trips Peak Period 338,040 423,500 +25% (Destination in Durham) Transit Trips Peak Period 41,230 52,300 +27% (Destination in Durham) Total Trips Peak Period 379,270 475,800 +25% (Destination in Durham) Transit share Peak Period 10.9% 11.0% +2% (on 2031 Network)

The growth in travel demand is concentrated in the new urban areas north of Highway 7 as well as in Clarington. The northern parts of Pickering and Whitby have significant stretches of east-west corridors that are at capacity. A number of arterial roads in Bowmanville are also at capacity in both peak periods. Exhibit 6.4 highlights the road sections with capacity constraints. The proposed 2031 road network will not be sufficient to address future demand. Additional capacity improvements are required.

January 2018 74 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 6.4: Beyond 2031 Scenario – Congested Links

AM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

PM Peak Hour

Volume to capacity ratio > 0.90

January 2018 75 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

6.3 Recommendations Beyond 2031 The resulting recommended road network modifications beyond 2031 are listed in Exhibit 6.5. Exhibit 6.5: Regional Road Expansion Projects Jurisdictio Road Segment Description n Regional Roads Brock Road #1 Highway 7 to Seventh Durham Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes Concession Road #31 Brock Road #1 Bridge over Highway Durham Widen bridge to 6 lanes 401 Simcoe Street #2 Winchester to Howden Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Road Winchester Road Garrard Road to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes #3 Simcoe Street #2 Taunton Road Simcoe #2 to Durham Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes #4 Townline Road #55 Bloor Street #22 Grandview Drive to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Prestonvale Road Lake Ridge Winchester Road/ Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Road #23 Hwy 7 to Brawley Road Altona Road #27 Finch Av #37 to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes, Taunton Road #4 with grade separation at CPR Altona Road #27 Taunton Road #4 to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Whitevale Extension Liverpool Road Bridge over Highway Durham/ Widen bridge over Hwy #29 401 MTO 401 to 6 lanes Seventh Brock Road #1 to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Concession Westney Road #31 Road #31 Westney Road Bridge over Highway Durham Widen bridge to 6 lanes #31 401 Westney Road Hwy 7 to Seventh Durham Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes #31 Concession Road Harmony Road Britannia Avenue to Oshawa Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes #33 Winchester Road Courtice Road Taunton Road #4 to Durham Construct new connection #34 Enfield Road #34 and realignment north of Taunton Road #4 Courtice Road Bloor Street #22 to Durham Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes #34 Hwy 401 Wilson Road #35 Olive Avenue to Bond Durham Widen from 3 to 4 lanes Street #Hwy 2 Darlington-Clark Durham #Hwy 2 to Durham Widen from 2 to 3 lanes Townline #42 Concession Street

January 2018 76 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Jurisdictio Road Segment Description n Townline Road Olive Av #59 to Bloor Durham Construct new bridge #55 Street #22 crossing of Farewell Creek, with widening of approach roads from 2 to 3 lanes Townline Road Adelaide Avenue #58 Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes #55 to Pebblestone Road Townline Road Pebblestone Road to Durham Widen from 2 to 3 lanes #55 Taunton Road #4 Gibb Street #59 Stevenson Road to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Thornton Road King Street Townline Road #55 to Durham Widen from 4/5 lanes to 7 #Hwy 2 Hwy 418 lanes King Street / Mearns Avenue to Durham Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Durham #Hwy 2 Hwy 35/115 Non-Regional Roads Baseline Road Holt Road to Regional Clarington Widen from 2 to 4 lanes Road #57 Baseline Road Lambs Road to #Hwy Clarington Construct new 4 lane road. 2 Bloor Street Courtice Road #34 to Clarington Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes Holt Road Brawley Road Lake Ridge Road #23 Whitby Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes to Hwy 7/12 Brawley Road Hwy 7/12 to Thornton Whitby Construct new 4 lane road. Road Brock Lake Ridge Road to Brock Upgrade to Regional Road Concession Hwy 12 standard. Realign to Road 8 Ravenshoe Road. Clements Road Church Street to Ajax New 2-lane arterial over Westney Road Duffins Creek Cochrane Street At Highway 407 MTO New interchange Cochrane Street Highway 7 to Garrard Whitby New 4-lane arterial extension (new Road midblock arterial) Columbus Road Lake Ridge Road #23 Whitby Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes. to Whitby/Oshawa Realign to connect to boundary Seventh Concession Road. Columbus Road Whitby/Oshawa Oshawa Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes boundary to Grandview Street #3 Consumers Drive Thornton Road #52 to Oshawa Construct new 4 lane Extension Fox Street (at Laval connection to Stevenson Drive) Road (via Laval Drive). Grade separation at rail spur line. Eighth Westney Road to Pickering Widen from 2 lanes to 4 Concession Lake Ridge Road #23 lanes Road

January 2018 77 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Jurisdictio Road Segment Description n Garden Street North of Robert Whitby New 2/4-lane arterial arterial road Attersley Drive to extension of east-west mid-block arterial Harmony Road Conlin Road to Hwy Oshawa Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes 407 Harmony Road Hwy 407 to Columbus Oshawa Upgrade to Regional standard when assumed by the Region Holt Road King Street #Hwy 2 to Clarington Widen from 2 to 3 lanes. Bloor St Holt Road Bloor Street to Clarington Widen from 2 to 3 lanes Highway 401 with grade separation at CPR Highway 7 York-Durham Line to MTO Widen 2 to 4 lanes Brock Road #1 King Street Harmony Road #33 to Oshawa Widen from 4/5 lanes to 7 Townline Road #55 lanes Kingston-Bayly Kingston Road #Hwy2 Pickering Construct new connection, Connector to Bayly Street #22 including grade separation (Downtown at Highway 401 and CNR Pickering) Kingston Lambs Road #Hwy 2 to Hwy 401 Clarington Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes Notion Road- Pickering Parkway to Pickering New crossing of Hwy 401 Squires Beach Kellino Street and CNR Road connection across Highway 401 Salem Road Hwy 7 to Eighth Pickering Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes Concession Road Salem Road At Highway 407 MTO Construct Hwy 407 interchange Scugog Line 2 Highway 12 to Simcoe Scugog Upgrade and extend Street across missing section between Old Simcoe Road and Simcoe Street. Seventh Westney Road #31 to Pickering Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes. Concession Lake Ridge Road #23 Connect to realigned Road Columbus Road. Stevenson Road North of Rossland Oshawa Construct new 4/5-lane Road #28 to Taunton connection and widen Road existing section from 2 to 4/5 lanes (if Oshawa Executive Airport closes). Thornton Road Taunton Road #4 to Oshawa Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes Howden Road Townline Road Taunton Road #4 to Oshawa Widen from 2 to 3 lanes Conlin Road

January 2018 78 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Jurisdictio Road Segment Description n Townline Road Conlin Road to Oshawa Construct new 3-lane road Winchester Road Townline Road At Highway 407 MTO Construct Hwy 407 interchange Westney Road Seventh Concession Pickering Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes Road to Eighth Concession Road Highway 48 Lake Ridge Road to MTO Widen as part of future Highway 12 Highway 404 extension

January 2018 79 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 7 Prioritization and Phasing

The primary purpose of the road network component of the TMP is to identify the road network needs to accommodate travel demand to 2031. As discussed in Section 6, the TMP also identifies road network needs beyond 2031 in order to ensure that the Region protects the necessary rights-of-way for long term needs. Typically, road expansion projects are prioritized on an on-going basis through the capital budget and nine year forecasting process. This process is conducted by Regional staff and takes into account existing and projected traffic volumes, development-driven needs, on-going asset management, and financial envelopes. The TMP provides an opportunity to both review/confirm the Regional road program for the next decade, as well as provide a longer term outlook for planning purposes. It also provides an opportunity to ensure that the road program reflects the Principles and Directions of the TMP, particularly with respect to meeting objectives for transit, walking and cycling. Overall, the approach to the prioritization process is to balance the needs of addressing congestion throughout the Region with those of improving the environment for other modes, providing access to new development lands, and providing value for money. The remainder of this chapter summarizes the methodology and the recommended phasing plans. Road projects will be phased according to the following time periods:

 Phase 1: 2017 - 2021

 Phase 2: 2022 - 2026

 Phase 3: 2026 - 2031

 Phase 4: Beyond 2031

7.1.1 Prioritization Criteria

Each project was assigned a score based on its ability to address five criteria, as summarized in Exhibit 7.1. The criteria were constructed in such a way as to not over-emphasize the role of meeting performance targets on roadways. For example, a project’s ability to manage area congestion was given equal weighting to its ability to support public transit vehicles or active transportation modes. Furthermore, giving equal weighting to providing access to development ensured that projects in high growth areas or intensification areas will be built to provide essential infrastructure to support the Regional Official Plan and growth objectives.

January 2018 80 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Once each project was scored, an additional screen was applied based on project readiness. Typically, it can take 6 to 10 years from the start of an environmental assessment to project opening. Exhibit 7.1: Prioritization Criteria CRITERIA DESCRIPTION Provides Access to Development The degree to which the project makes lands accessible for new development or intensification areas Manages Congestion The degree to which the project alleviates congestion on the roadway or on adjacent roadways (based on forecasts volume to capacity ratios) Cost Effectiveness The ratio of capital cost to vehicle-kilometres travelled. The lower the ratio, the higher the score Addresses Network Gaps Improves connectivity that, in turn, reduces pressures on existing neighbourhoods Supports Non-Motorized and Whether the project will improve the operating Transit Infrastructure environment for transit, cyclists, and pedestrians

7.1.2 Proposed Phasing The proposed phasing for the recommended road network is presented in Exhibit 8.3.

January 2018 81 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 8 Road Network Cost 8.1 Capital Costs Recommended 2031 road network improvements were classified by project type in order to cost using Durham’s 2015 unit prices for New Rural Roads, New Urban Roads, Rural to Urban Widening and Urban to Urban Widening. Project information was derived from information gathered through consultation with Regional staff, Durham Region online resources and available aerial mapping to assist in determining the construction cost of each road segment. For projects with EA studies or detailed design, the cost estimates were compared and reconciled against the cost estimates from the EA studies or detailed design. Typical cross-section benchmark costs were provided by Durham Region. They are based on 2015 average awarded tender costs. The typical cross-section costs per kilometre used for the TMP project cost estimates are summarized in Exhibit 8.1. The unit costs do not include improvements and/or construction of illumination, water mains, sanitary sewers and sidewalks. Exhibit 8.1: Costs Summary by Project Type TYPICAL CROSS-SECTION DESCRIPTION STORM 2015 AVERAGE SEWER COST PER KM New 2 Lanes Rural None $1.82 M Widening from 2 Lanes Rural to 3 Lanes Urban New $1.57 M Widening from 2 Lanes Rural to 4 Lanes Urban New $1.96 M Widening from 2 Lanes Rural to 5 Lanes Urban New $2.82 M Widening from 3 Lanes Rural to 4 Lanes Urban New $2.82 M Widening from 3 Lanes Rural to 5 Lanes Urban New $2.59 M New 2 Lanes Urban New $1.87 M New 3 Lanes Urban New $2.08 M New 4 Lanes Urban New $2.48 M Widening from 2 Lanes Urban to 3 Lanes Urban Replace $0.83 M Widening from 2 Lanes Urban to 4 Lanes Urban Replace2 $1.47 M Widening from 2 Lanes Urban to 5 Lanes Urban Replace $2.82 M Widening from 3 Lanes Urban to 5 Lanes Urban Replace $2.70 M Widening from 4 Lanes Urban to 5 Lanes Urban Replace $2.17 M Widening from 5 Lanes Urban to 7 Lanes Urban Replace $2.96 M

The cost for each TMP project was established based on the characteristics of each roadway improvement. These improvement features and unit cost are summarized in Exhibit 8.2.

January 2018 82 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 8.2: Unit Costs FEATURES DESCRIPTION UNIT COST/UNIT 2m Raised Concrete Median km $190,000 2m Flushed Asphalt Median km $211,000 5m Raised Concrete Median km $413,000 5m Flushed Asphalt Median km $530,000 Noise Walls km $1.0 M Paved Shoulder Bike Lanes m $250 Buffered Cycling Lane m $200 Multi-use trail with Earth Excavation and Grading Only m $134 Regional Road at Regional Road Intersection each $250,000 Improvements Regional Road at Local Road Intersection each $200,000 Improvements Traffic Control Signals Intersection Improvements each $275,000 Traffic Control Signal Intersection Rebuilds each $225,000 Rural Property Cost ha $50,000 Urban Property Cost ha $1.0 M

The capital cost estimate for each project includes an allowance for the following:

 Environmental Assessment study cost of $300,000 for projects under $6.0M and $500,000 for projects over $6.0 M;

 Landscaping cost equal to 10% of construction costs;

 Utility Relocation cost equal to 10% of construction costs;

 Pre-Construction Engineering cost equal to 13% of all construction costs; and

 Construction Engineering, Contingencies and Miscellaneous costs equal to 24% of all construction costs. Where cost estimates have been previously developed by the Region for the Capital Forecast, those costs were carried forward in the TMP. The total estimated capital cost of all proposed road infrastructure projects is $1,250,080,000. A summary of these costs is presented in Exhibit 8.3 and subtotal by phase is presented in Exhibit 8.4.

January 2018 83 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 8.3: Road Capital Program ID Road Segment Description Cost Timing 1.2 Brock Road Finch Avenue to Taunton Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes 36,900,000 2027-2031 1.3a Brock Road Taunton Road to Whitevale Road Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 12,190,000 2017-2021 1.3b Brock Road Taunton Road to Whitevale Road Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 13,600,000 2027-2031 1.5 Brock Road Whitevale Road to Highway 7 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 14,600,000 2027-2031 2.1 Simcoe Street Conlin Road to Winchester Road Widen from 2/4 to 5 lanes 12,200,000 2017-2021 2.2 Simcoe Street King Street to Greenway Boulevard Widen from 2 to 3 lanes 2,200,000 2027-2031 3.1a Winchester Road Baldwin Street to Anderson Widening from 2 to 3 lanes 8,200,000 2017-2021 Street/Watford Street 3.1b Winchester Road Anderson Street/Watford Street to Widening from 2 to 5 lanes 11,000,000 2017-2021 Garrard Road 4.1 Taunton Road York-Durham Line to Brock Road Widen from 4 to 6/7 lanes 49,100,000 2027-2031 4.2 Taunton Road Brock Road to Brock Street Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes 94,400,000 2027-2031 4.3 Taunton Road Brock Street to Simcoe Street Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes 63,100,000 2027-2031 5.1 Central Street Canso Drive/William Street to Urbanize and Improve Corridor 2,700,000 2022-2026 Brock Road 14.1 Liberty Street Baseline Road to King Street Widen from 2 to 3 lanes 7,700,000 2017-2021 16.1 Ritson Road Taunton Road to Conlin Road Widen from 2/3 to 5 lanes 14,000,000 2022-2026 16.2 Ritson Road Conlin Road to Britannia Avenue Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 3,300,000 2027-2031 17.1 North Street North of the CPR to Concession Construct new alignment and widen 5,300,000 2027-2031 Road 3 from 2 to 3 lanes 22.1 Bayly Street Liverpool Road to Brock Road Widen from 5 to 6/7 lanes 14,300,000 2022-2026 22.2a Bayly Street Brock Road to Westney Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes 29,400,000 2027-2031 22.2b Bayly Street Westney Road to Harwood Avenue Widen from 5 to 7 lanes 14,500,000 2022-2026 22.3 Bayly Street Harwood Avenue to Salem Road Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 8,400,000 2027-2031 22.5 Victoria Street South Blair Street to west of Construct new alignment and widen 12,800,000 2017-2021 Thickson Road from 2 to 5 lanes 22.6 Victoria Street East of Thickson Road to west of Widen from 2/3 to 4/5 lanes 11,850,000 2017-2021 Stevenson Road 22.8 Bloor Street Ritson Road to Farewell Street Widen from 3 to 5 lanes 10,400,000 2027-2031

January 2018 84 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

ID Road Segment Description Cost Timing 22.10 Bloor Street Harmony Road to Grandview Drive Construct new alignment to 4 lanes, 24,200,000 2022-2026 with new CPR grade separation and bridge crossing of Farewell Creek 22.12 Bloor Street Prestonvale Road to Courtice Road Widen from 2 to 3 lanes and 13,200,000 2022-2026 improve profile 23.1 Lake Ridge Road Bayly Street/Victoria Street to Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes 3,900,000 2017-2021 Kingston Road/Dundas Street 23.2 Lake Ridge Road Kingston Road/Dundas Street to Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes 8,750,000 2022-2026 Rossland Road 25.1 Consumers Drive East of Thickson Road to Thornton Construct new 3 lane connection 19,200,000 2017-2021 Road 26.1 Thickson Road Wentworth Street to CNR Kingston Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 3,700,000 2017-2021 26.2 Thickson Road Consumers Drive to Dundas Street Widen from 5 to 7 lanes 22,600,000 2022-2026 26.3 Thickson Road Taunton Road to Highway 407 Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes 21,300,000 2022-2026 26.4 Thickson Road Winchester Road to Baldwin Street Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes 21,500,000 2022-2026 27.1 Altona Road Strouds Lane to Finch Avenue Widen from 2 to 3 lanes 7,800,000 2027-2031 28.4 Rossland Road Ritson Road to Harmony Road Widen from 3 to 5 lanes 12,900,000 2022-2026 28.5 Rossland Road Harmony Road to east of Townline Construct new alignment to 3 lanes 26,600,000 2027-2031 Road including new bridge crossing of Harmony Creek tributary 28.6a Rossland Road Brock Road to Sideline 24 Construct new alignment to 4 lanes 16,500,000 2017-2021 with CPR grade separation 28.6b Rossland Road Sideline 24 to Whitevale Road Construct new alignment to 5 lanes 26,800,000 2017-2021 Realignment 28.7 Rossland Road Whitevale Road Realignment to Construct new alignment to 5 lanes 7,600,000 2022-2026 Highway 7 29.1 Liverpool Road Highway 401 to Kingston Road Widen from 5 to 6 lanes 3,300,000 2022-2026 31.1 Westney Road Bayly Street to Highway 401 Widen from 5 to 7 lanes 7,700,000 2022-2026 31.2 Westney Road Highway 401 to Kingston Road Widen from 5 to 7 lanes 5,750,000 2022-2026 31.4 Westney Road Rossland Road to Taunton Road Widen from 2 to 5 lanes 10,500,000 2017-2021

January 2018 85 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

ID Road Segment Description Cost Timing 31.5 Westney Road Hamlet of Greenwood Construct new Greenwood Bypass 13,050,000 2022-2026 to 2 lanes south of Highway 7 and 4 lanes to Highway 407 33.1 Harmony Road Rossland Road to Taunton Road Widen from 3 to 5 lanes 10,500,000 2017-2021 33.2 Harmony Road Taunton Road to Conlin Road Widen from 2/3 to 5 lanes 6,590,000 2017-2021 33.3 Harmony Road Conlin Road to Britannia Avenue Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 3,900,000 2027-2031 35.1 Wilson Road Bloor Street to Olive Avenue Widen from 2/3 to 4 lanes 7,500,000 2027-2031 36.1 Hopkins Street Victoria Street to Consumers Drive Construct new 4-lane overpass of 14,300,000 2022-2026 Highway 401 36.2 Hopkins Street Consumers Drive to Dundas Street Widen from 2 to 3 lanes, with new 15,300,000 2027-2031 CPR grade separation 37.1 Finch Avenue Altona Road to Brock Road Widen from 2 to 3 lanes 26,500,000 2022-2026 38.2 Whites Road Kingston Road to Finch Avenue Widen from 5 to 6 lanes including 20,800,000 2022-2026 structure widening 38.3 Whites Road Finch Avenue to Third Concession Widen from 2 to 6 lanes, with new 21,700,000 2022-2026 Road CPR grade separation 38.4 Whites Road Third Concession Road to Taunton Construct new alignment to 74,100,000 2022-2026 Road Sideline 26 (future Whites Road connection) and widen from 2 to 6 lanes across West Duffins Creek (1.1 km) 38.5 Whites Road Taunton Road to Whitevale Road Construct new connection to 6 14,100,000 2017-2021 lanes 38.6a Whites Road Whitevale Road to Highway 7 Construct new alignment to 4 lanes 7,400,000 2017-2021 38.6b Whites Road Whitevale Road to Highway 7 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes 4,600,000 2027-2031 52.1a Thornton Road Champlain Avenue to north of Widen from 2 to 3 lanes 6,000,000 2017-2021 Consumers Drive Extension 52.1b Thornton Road North of Consumers Drive Widen from 2 to 4 lanes, with new 13,200,000 2022-2026 Extension to King Street CPR grade separation 53.1 Stevenson Road CPR Belleville to Bond Street Widen from 4 to 5 lanes 8,600,000 2027-2031 53.2 Stevenson Road Bond Street to Rossland Road Widen from 3/4 to 5 lanes 14,200,000 2027-2031 57.1 Regional Road 57 Baseline Road to south of King Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 16,700,000 2017-2021 Street

January 2018 86 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

ID Road Segment Description Cost Timing 57.2 Regional Road 57 South of King Street to north of Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 6,850,000 2017-2021 Stevens Road 57.3 Regional Road 57 North of Stevens Road to north of Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 9,100,000 2022-2026 Nash Road 58.1 Manning Garrard Road to Thornton Road Construct new connection to 3 14,200,000 2017-2021 Road/Adelaide Ave lanes, with new crossing of Corbett Creek 58.2 Adelaide Avenue Townline Road to Trulls Road Construct new bridge crossing of 28,350,000 2022-2026 Farewell Creek and new 3-lane connection 59.1 Gibb Street East of Stevenson Road to Simcoe Widen from 3 to 4/5 lanes 22,000,000 2017-2021 Street 59.2 Gibb Street / Olive Simcoe Street to Ritson Road Construct new connection and 20,500,000 2022-2026 Avenue widen from 2/3 lanes to 4/5 lanes 99.1a Whitevale Road Brock Road to West limit of Phase Construct new connection to 4/5 27,400,000 2017-2021 1 lanes. Widen existing portion from 2 to 4 lanes. 99.1b Whitevale Road West limit of Phase 1 to east of Construct new connection to 4/5 10,500,000 2017-2021 West Duffins Creek lanes 99.2 Whitevale Road York-Durham Line to east of West Construct new 2-lane connection 40,900,000 2027-2031 Duffins Creek 99.3 Whitevale Road East of Sideline 16 to Brock Road Widen from 2 to 4 lanes 3,600,000 2022-2026 102.7 Regional Highway 2 East of Newcastle Widen railway overpass tunnel from 7,700,000 2027-2031 1 to 2 lanes (Bridge Replacement) 112.1 Brock Street Rossland Road to Taunton Road Widen from 3 to 5 lanes 12,700,000 2017-2021 (Regional Highway 12) 112.2 Baldwin Street Taunton Road to Highway 407 Widen from 2 to 4/5 lanes 15,900,000 2022-2026 (Regional Highway 12) 147.1 Regional Highway 47 York-Durham Line to Goodwood Road Widening from 2 to 4 lanes 15,400,000 2022-2026 Road with intersection modifications Total Cost $1,250,080,000

January 2018 87 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 8.4: Road Capital Program by Phase

TIMING COST 2017-2021 $304,080,000 2022-2026 $478,200,000 2027-2031 $467,800,000 Total Cost $1,250,080,000

8.2 Operating and Rehabilitation Costs Exhibit 8.5 provides a representative cost for a typical Regional road. This cost will be applied to each road project to determine the incremental increase in operating cost within the 2031 horizon. Exhibit 8.5: Basic Annual Road Operating Costs TYPE OF OPERATIONS OPERATING COST ESTIMATE Roadway – winter control, traffic signs & markings, storm sewers, roadside maintenance, $9,000 / km / lane maintenance general and maintenance overhead

The process for estimating lifecycle costs for rehabilitation is to estimate the annualized cost for minor and major rehabilitation based on the assumed rehab period. These annualized costs, as shown in Exhibit 8.6, are then multiplied by the number of years between the road’s construction and 2031. Exhibit 8.6: Benchmark Road Maintenance (Rehab) Costs COST ESTIMATE BASIC REHABILITATION ITEM REHAB PERIOD (2016$) Minor Rehabilitation – Micro Surfacing $30,000 /km/lane 7 Major Rehabilitation – Mill and Overlay $92,500 /km/lane 18

Exhibit 8.7: Incremental Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs INCREMENTAL INCREMENTAL OPERATING MAINTENANCE COST COST (ANNUAL) (ANNUAL) 2017-2021 $1,131,000 $1,190,000 2022-2026 $2,702,000 $2,837,000 2027-2031 $3,753,000 $3,942,000

January 2018 88 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham 9 Paved Shoulders 9.1 Benefits and Costs of Paved Shoulders Most rural Regional roads currently have gravel shoulders. Paved shoulders refer to the additional strip of hard surface next to the travelled lanes on rural road cross- sections, with generally a minimum width of 1.0-1.5 metres with gravel shoulder beyond this. Paved shoulders represent an additional capital investment which must be evaluated against potential benefits to road users, including cyclists. Paved shoulders have significant complementary benefits for road users and the Region. Some of these benefits are summarized below:1

 Provides space for emergency manoeuvres and serves as a refuge area for vehicles in the case of a collision;

 Can reduce various types of collisions including run-off-the road, sideswipe and head-on collisions (see details below);

 Provides space outside of general purpose travel lanes that for cyclists to operate on rural roadways and can improve the comfort and safety of cyclists by reducing their interaction with potentially high speed vehicles;

 Supports pedestrian access in rural areas, particularly through rural hamlets with residential and other land uses;

 Provides additional operating space for heavy vehicles, particularly those used for agricultural operations, or those with oversized loads;

 Contributes to reduced operating costs through improved ease of maintenance (reduced re-grading, re-gravelling and wash-out repairs);

 Improves lateral roadway support and roadway drainage, which extends pavement life; and

 Reduces gravel being swept onto paved roadways at gravel driveways. Gravel on the roadway is a safety concern as it can cause skidding and loss of control. Of course, there are additional capital costs associated with the provision of paved shoulders. Cost estimates to provide paved shoulders as part of a road reconstruction project range from about CAD $25,0002 to USD $190,0003 per kilometre depending on the shoulder width and depth of base. Retrofitting paved

1 Incorporating On-Road Bicycle Networks into Resurfacing Projects. FHWA. (2016) Available online: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/bicycle_pedestrian/publications/resurfacing/resurfacing_workbook.pdf 2 Grey County Paved Shoulder Policy. 2009. TAPSR-018-09 Available online: http://www.greycounty.ca/files/pagecontent/policy-raods-01-09-paved-shoul.pdf 3 Incorporating On-Road Bicycle Networks into Resurfacing Projects. FHWA. (2016) Available online: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/bicycle_pedestrian/publications/resurfacing/resurfacing_workbook.pdf

January 2018 89 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

shoulders to existing roads can be significantly more expensive than when they are provided with a capital or rehabilitation project, depending on the available base, existing gravel shoulder width, extent of grading, and/or property requirements. However, studies have shown that the additional capital cost of paving shoulders can be outweighed by the benefits of reduced collisions.4 Many studies have examined the safety of impacts of shoulder improvements:

 A study of the impacts of highway shoulders in Illinois found that paving shoulders on rural multilane roads reduced the percentage of shoulder-related crashes by the following amounts: fatal collisions by 19-22%, injury collisions by 0-3%, and PDO collisions by 18-20%.5

 A study of the impacts of providing composite shoulders on rural two- lane highways in Kansas found that upgrading narrow unpaved shoulders to composite shoulders can reduce shoulder related crashes by up to 61 percent and fatal and injury crashes by 31 percent.6

 A cross-sectional study of shoulder improvements in Minnesota found that upgrading a gravel shoulder to a paved shoulder with rumble strips along 7 segments of roadway resulted in a drop in the average crash rate from 1.6 crashes per million vehicle miles in the before period to 1.0 in the after, a reduction of 37%.7 In addition to reduced collisions, paved shoulders reduce on-going maintenance costs. A review by Lanark County suggested that converting all county roads to paved shoulders would result in an annual reduction of $210,000 in operating costs (due to reduced maintenance costs) and $400,000 in capital costs (due to longer roadway service life) for $10M in capital investment, which suggests a payback period of about 16 years.8 Grey County approved a policy in 2009 to provide paved shoulders on all reconstructed rural arterials. This decision was made after a study showed that “over a period of fifteen (15) years, paved road shoulders are less costly to install and maintain than gravel shoulders”9, as shown in Exhibit 9.1. The comparison assumes a one metre shoulder width (the policy requires the paved shoulder to be 1.2 to 2.0 m wide on newly constructed roads, and a minimum of 0.5 m where 1.2 m cannot be achieved due to constraints).

4 Ogden, K. W. (1997). The effects of paved shoulders on accidents on rural highways. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 29(3), 353-362. 5 Bamzai, R., Lee, Y., & Li, Z. (2011). Safety impacts of highway shoulder attributes in Illinois. FHWA-ICT-11-078. 6 Li, Z., Kepaptsoglou, K., Lee, Y., Patel, H., Liu, Y., & Kim, H. G. (2013). Safety effects of shoulder paving for rural and urban interstate, multilane, and two-lane highways. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 139(10), 1010-1019. 7 Pitale, J. T., Shankwitz, C., Preston, H., & Barry, M. (2009). Benefit: Cost Analysis of In-Vehicle Technologies and Infrastructure Modifications as a Means to Prevent Crashes Along Curves and Shoulders. 8 Report #PW-65-2013 County Roads Paved Shoulder Program. Available online: http://www.lanarkcounty.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=5430 9 Grey County Paved Shoulder Policy. 2009. TAPSR-018-09 Available online: http://www.greycounty.ca/files/pagecontent/policy-raods-01- 09-paved-shoul.pdf

January 2018 90 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 9.1: Grey County’s Financial Cost Comparison – Paved vs Gravel Shoulders (2008 prices) PAVED GRAVEL SHOULDER SHOULDER Initial Cost per Road KM $25,000 $5,500 Annual Maintenance ($218) $3,270 6 times year grading over a 15 year period Re: gravelling (every 4 years) - $5,500, $19,250 times 3.5 Washout Repairs (based on 2008 costs $2,100 to date, at $140.00 per km average) TOTAL COST PER KM over a 15 year $25,000 $30,120 period

The comparison also noted that additional costs for paved shoulders could include crack sealing at $2.00 per metre of crack seal, but suggested that “this cost would be offset by less edge cracking due to plows and heavy truck traffic along pavement edge”. 9.2 Practices in other Jurisdictions

9.2.1 York Region York Region routinely incorporates paved shoulders into rural road reconstruction projects, based on design guidelines. The Region’s Designing Great Streets Guidelines identify cross-sections for rural roads with 2m paved shoulders (see Exhibit 9.2 below). These guidelines are applied regardless of whether the roadway is identified in the Region’s cycling network. Work currently being undertaken by York Region on their Pedestrian and Cycling Design Standards suggests that these cross-sections may be updated as follows (draft recommendations):

 Provide 2.0 m wide paved shoulders on 2-lane rural roads including a 0.5 m wide painted buffer

 Provide 3.0 m wide paved shoulders on 4-lane rural roads including a 1.0 m wide painted buffer with rumble strip (2.0 m wide painted median to be removed)

January 2018 91 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 9.2: York Region’s Rural Road Typologies RURAL ROAD – TWO LANE OPTION

RURAL ROAD – FOUR LANE OPTION

Source: York Region, Designing Great Streets, 2013

January 2018 92 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

York Region has experimented with buffered paved shoulders with and without rumble strips (see Exhibit 9.3 below). Buffered paved shoulders have the advantage of providing additional separation for cyclists, support the Highway Traffic Act new 1 m passing regulation, and can be implemented adjacent to high speed, high volumes rural roads. Exhibit 9.3: Rural buffered paved shoulder on Ninth Line in York Region

Source: Google Maps

9.2.2 Region of Waterloo The Region of Waterloo’s design guidance for Regional Roads is documented in their Context Sensitive Regional Transportation Corridor Design Guidelines (revised March 2013). The Rural Connector, see Exhibit 9.4, provides a 2.65 m shoulder (1.0 m paved, 1.65 m gravel). The shoulder can be fully paved if required adjacent to a front lawn, guiderail or steep slope. Optional items in this cross-section include 1.8 m cycling facility (paved shoulder) as per the Active Transportation Master Plan.

January 2018 93 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 9.4: Waterloo Region’s Rural Road Typology RURAL CONNECTOR

Source: Waterloo Region, Context Sensitive Regional Transportation Corridor Design Guidelines, revised March 2013

January 2018 94 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

9.2.3 Peel Region The Region of Peel’s Active Transportation Study (2011) includes a recommendation that paved shoulders be provided on all rural Regional roads where technically feasible (e.g. a structurally adequate subbase can be provided, roadway width not constrained by terrain or environmentally sensitive areas, etc.). The accompanying design criteria are shown in Exhibit 9.5. Exhibit 9.5: Peel Region’s Paved Shoulder Design Criteria Guidelines ELEMENT CRITERIA GUIDELINES AND NOTES AREA MUNICIPAL CRITERIA* Application  On all rural regional roads where  Where structurally adequate sub-base can be technically feasible provided  Width increases as volume /  Steep terrain or adjacent environmentally speed increases sensitive lands may prohibit the provision of an adequate sub-base of appropriate width Surface  Asphalt  Slip resistant and smooth Width  Min. 1.8 m  Includes 1.0 to 1.5 m space for lateral thrust  Caledon: min. 1.5 m; desirable turbulence of passing trucks at speeds 1.8 m >80 km/h Vertical  3.0 m clearance General  Dashed and solid white lane line;  Reserved lane diamond symbol omitted since pavement bicycle symbol use of shoulder by slow moving vehicles marking other than cyclists is permitted Signage  Bicycle route sign  As part of an overall active transportation signage strategy  Reserved bike lane sign omitted since use of shoulder by slow moving vehicles other than cyclists is permitted Separator  Optional 100 mm wide rumble  Between intersections and driveways where strip motorists passing on the right is to be discouraged Note: * City of Mississauga does not use paved shoulders (no rural roads) Source: Peel Region, Active Transportation Study, 2011

9.2.4 Halton Region Halton Region’s Active Transportation Design Toolbox (ATMP Appendix G, May 2015) recommends the following paved shoulder widths for cycling:

 AADT < 4,500 vpd—min. 1.2 m; desirable 1.5 m

 AADT > 4,500 vpd—min. 1.8 m

 Optional: buffer 0.5 m to 1.0 m wide to separate cyclists from high volume, mix of traffic in the adjacent travel lane

 If rumble strips are used, provide min. 0.5 m wide buffer and install 300 mm wide rumble strips at the edge and within the buffer adjacent the paved shoulder (MTOD 503.070)

January 2018 95 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

The Active Transportation Master Plan (May 2015) sets out a goal of providing paved shoulders on all Regional roads in rural areas, increasing their network of paved shoulders from 109 km to 306 km.

9.2.5 Provincial Jurisdictions The Ministry of Transportation, Ontario (MTO) published Bikeways Design Manual (March 2014). Their guidance on paved shoulders and buffers is shown in Exhibit 9.6 and Exhibit 9.7. Rumble strips on signed bike routes are to be considered only when the paved shoulder is 2.0 m wide or greater. MTO has not identified a network of signed bike routes. Exhibit 9.6: MTO’s Design Criteria for Paved Shoulders along Signed Bike Routes

Source: MTO, Bikeways Design Manual, March 2014

January 2018 96 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 9.7: Paved Shoulder Widths and Buffers on Rural Two-Lane Highways Designated as a Cycling Route

Source: MTO, Bikeways Design Manual, March 2014

January 2018 97 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

The Nova Scotia Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal has standards for paved shoulders dependent on the type of rehabilitation project (refer to Exhibit 9.8). Exhibit 9.8: Paved Shoulder Widths for Active Transportation Policy (Nova Scotia)

9.3 Design Guidelines for Paved Shoulders Where paved shoulders are provided as a cycling facility, traffic volume should be considered in determining the desired facility width. According to OTM Book 18, suggested widths range from 1.2 m to 2.0 m (refer to Exhibit 9.9 and Exhibit 9.10) for roadways where bicycle volumes are at least 25 per day (existing or expected). Rural roads with an AADT of 700 or less do not require paved shoulders. Exhibit 9.9: Suggested Widths for Paved Shoulders by Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)

Source: OTM Book 18: Cycling Facilities, 2013

January 2018 98 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Exhibit 9.10: Cross-sections of Signed Bicycle Routes with Paved Shoulder

Source: OTM Book 18: Cycling Facilities, 2013 Additional factors such as speed may also be considered when determining paved shoulder widths, as higher speed traffic may create uncomfortable riding conditions on narrower shoulders (refer to Exhibit 9.11). Exhibit 9.11: Suggested Widths for Paved Shoulders by Average Summer Daily Traffic (ASDT) and Speed SPEED LIMIT ASDT < 2000 ASDT> 2000 50 km/hr or less 1.0 m 1.0 m 50 km/hr to 70 km/hr 1.0 m 1.5 m > 70 km/hr 1.5 m 1.75 m Source: Planning & Design for Pedestrians & Cyclists, Vélo Québec, 2010

January 2018 99 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

9.4 Paved Shoulder Treatment Recommendations for Durham

9.4.1 Summary of Findings Paved shoulders are being implemented and widely adopted by many jurisdictions throughout Ontario and Canada for a number of reasons – paved shoulder are recognized for their safety impacts (reduced collisions, improved operation at driveways and for oversized vehicles), ability to improve conditions for pedestrians in rural hamlets, reduced maintenance costs and overall contribution to rural road quality.

9.4.2 Durham Regional Rural Road Characteristics and Shoulder Implementation Rural roads are defined by the characteristics of the roadway (no curb and gutter) rather than the surrounding land use (i.e. there may be rural roads in urban areas). Based on information provided by the Region of Durham, Regional rural roads have the following characteristics:

 Posted speed: most are posted 80 km/h; there are some short sections posted 70 km/h; posted speeds in hamlets are 50 to 60 km/h

 Average Annual Weekday Traffic: generally volumes range 2,500 vpd or less, and 2,501 to 8,000 vpd; there are a few segments that carry more than 8,000 vpd As noted, many rural roads currently do not have paved shoulders, and they are not uniformly implemented. Instead, they may be provided near certain hazards i.e. where guide rails are provided or at the discretion of roadway designers based on varying road characteristics and budgetary considerations.

9.4.3 Recommendations Based on the many potential benefits outlined throughout this memo, and in keeping with practices in other municipalities, a paved shoulder policy is proposed that recommends implementing paved shoulders as part of all future new construction, rehabilitation and resurfacing projects on rural Regional roads where it is technically and economically feasible to do so, as determined through an engineering assessment. The paved shoulder width would typically be in the range of 1.2-1.5 m (excluding rumble strip, if present). The Region’s current practice is to pave a 0.5 m width of the granular shoulder (excluding rumble strip, if present) on most rural Regional roads, and to fully pave the shoulder in front of guard rail installations and on steep grades to assist with pavement stability and shoulder maintenance. With the recommended application of wider paved shoulders on most rural Regional road projects, there will be a need to develop new standards for shoulder design and construction.

January 2018 100 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

Appendix A – Additional Road Network Performance Data

A.1: Screenline Analysis for Base and Enhanced Networks A.2: Screenline Analysis for Preferred 2031 Network

IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

A.1: Screenline Analysis for Base and Enhanced Networks

AM Screenlines ID SCREENLINE NAME 2011 AM 2031 AM 2031 AM BASE ENHANCED Peak Vol. V/C Peak Vol. V/C Peak Vol. V/C Dir. Dir. Dir. 1a East of Durham-Toronto Boundary (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) W 18,100 0.96 W 19,300 1.05 W 18,100 0.98 1b West of Durham-York Boundary (14th Avenue to 19th Avenue) W 5,000 0.48 W 8,400 0.75 W 8,500 0.76 2a West of Brock Road (Bayly to Taunton Road) W 12,500 0.63 W 12,800 0.65 W 11,900 0.60 2b West of Brock Road (Taunton Road to North Limit) W 4,700 0.46 W 8,200 0.72 W 7,400 0.60 3a East of Lake Ridge Road (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) W 10,100 0.93 W 11,200 0.95 W 12,500 0.77 3b East of Lake Ridge Road (Hwy 7 to Townline Road) W 1,800 0.57 W 5,900 0.63 W 4,600 0.48 4a West of Thickson Road (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) W 8,400 0.57 W 7,400 0.50 E 8,500 0.44 4b West of Thickson Road (Conlin Road to Townline Road) W 1,300 0.33 W 4,000 0.51 W 3,400 0.39 5a East of Townline Road (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) W 5,300 0.41 W 6,800 0.51 W 6,100 0.36 5b East of Townline Road (Concession 6 to Concession 10) W 400 0.16 W 1,100 0.17 W 600 0.09

6a South of Highway 401 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) S 7,800 0.69 S 10,900 0.83 S 9,600 0.77 6b South of Highway 401 (Henry Street to Bloor St) S 7,800 0.46 S 13,400 0.79 S 12,300 0.83 7a North of Highway 401 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) S 12,100 1.08 S 15,700 1.20 S 13,700 1.05 7b North of Highway 401 (Henry Street to Bloor St) S 10,100 0.59 S 14,700 0.71 S 13,800 0.74 8a North of Taunton Road (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge N 3,400 0.42 N 6,100 0.55 N 6,400 0.58 Road) 8b North of Taunton Road (Halls Road to Townline Road) S 5,300 0.33 S 7,500 0.35 S 8,100 0.38 9a North of Highway 407 (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) S 1,800 0.28 N 3,500 0.37 N 3,300 0.35 9b North of Highway 407 (Coronation Road to Townline Road) S 1,500 0.20 S 3,200 0.34 S 3,500 0.38

January 2018 A-1 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

PM Screenlines ID SCREENLINE NAME 2011 PM 2031 PM 2031 PM BASE ENHANCED Peak Vol. V/C Peak Vol. V/C Peak Vol. V/C Dir. Dir. Dir. 1a East of Durham-Toronto Boundary (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) E 17,100 1.00 E 17,300 0.94 E 15,800 0.86 1b West of Durham-York Boundary (14th Avenue to 19th Avenue) E 4,100 0.39 E 7,100 0.63 E 6,500 0.58 2a West of Brock Road (Bayly to Taunton Road) E 14,000 0.65 E 14,300 0.72 W 13,900 0.70 2b West of Brock Road (Taunton Road to North Limit) E 4,000 0.39 E 7,200 0.63 E 6,000 0.49 3a East of Lake Ridge Road (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) E 9,200 0.85 E 10,600 0.89 E 11,800 0.73 3b East of Lake Ridge Road (Hwy 7 to Townline Road) E 1,600 0.51 E 4,700 0.50 E 3,300 0.35 4a West of Thickson Road (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) E 7,800 0.53 W 8,500 0.57 W 10,300 0.53 4b West of Thickson Road (Conlin Road to Townline Road) E 1,400 0.35 E 4,200 0.53 E 3,300 0.38 5a East of Townline Road (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) E 6,900 0.53 E 8,800 0.66 E 7,700 0.45 5b East of Townline Road (Concession 6 to Concession 10) E 500 0.20 E 1,400 0.23 E 800 0.12

6a South of Highway 401 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) N 10,700 0.96 N 13,600 1.04 N 13,500 1.08 6b South of Highway 401 (Henry Street to Bloor St) N 11,500 0.65 N 14,500 0.88 N 11,200 0.79 7a North of Highway 401 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) N 13,900 1.15 N 17,600 1.26 N 17,200 1.24 7b North of Highway 401 (Henry Street to Bloor St) N 11,200 0.67 N 16,300 0.80 N 14,700 0.66 8a North of Taunton Road (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) S 2,800 0.34 S 5,700 0.51 S 5,700 0.51 8b North of Taunton Road (Halls Road to Townline Road) N 5,200 0.37 S 8,700 0.40 S 8,500 0.40 9a North of Highway 407 (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) N 2,000 0.33 S 3,400 0.35 S 3,000 0.32 9b North of Highway 407 (Coronation Road to Townline Road) N 1,700 0.22 N 3,400 0.37 N 3,000 0.33

January 2018 A-2 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

A.2: Screenline Analysis for Preferred 2031 Network

AM Screenlines ID SCREENLINE NAME 2031 AM 2031 AM BASE PREFERRED Peak Volume V/C Peak Volume V/C Dir Dir 1a East of Durham-Toronto Boundary W 19,300 1.05 W 18,900 0.97 (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) 1b West of Durham-York Boundary W 8,400 0.75 W 8,300 0.74 (14th Avenue to 19th Avenue) 2a West of Brock Road (Bayly to Taunton Road) W 12,800 0.65 W 12,400 0.57 2b West of Brock Road W 8,200 0.72 W 7,600 0.60 (Taunton Road to North Limit) 3a East of Lake Ridge Road W 11,200 0.95 W 13,200 0.77 (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) 3b East of Lake Ridge Road W 5,900 0.63 W 4,300 0.46 (Hwy 7 to Townline Road) 4a West of Thickson Road W 7,400 0.50 E 8,300 0.41 (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) 4b West of Thickson Road W 4,000 0.51 W 3,300 0.38 (Conlin Road to Townline Road) 5a East of Townline Road W 6,800 0.51 W 6,200 0.37 (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) 5b East of Townline Road W 1,100 0.17 W 600 0.09 (Concession 6 to Concession 10)

6a South of Highway 401 S 10,900 0.83 S 10,000 0.65 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) 6b South of Highway 401 S 13,400 0.79 S 11,900 0.88 (Henry Street to Bloor St) 7a North of Highway 401 S 15,700 1.20 S 14,000 0.88 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) 7b North of Highway 401 S 14,700 0.71 S 13,500 0.75 (Henry Street to Bloor St) 8a North of Taunton Road N 6,100 0.55 N 6,900 0.53 (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) 8b North of Taunton Road S 7,500 0.35 S 7,900 0.39 (Halls Road to Townline Road) 9a North of Highway 407 N 3,500 0.37 N 3,300 0.31 (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) 9b North of Highway 407 S 3,200 0.34 S 3,600 0.35 (Coronation Road to Townline Road)

January 2018 A-3 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham

PM Screenlines ID SCREENLINE NAME 2031 PM 2031 PM BASE PREFERRED Peak Volume V/C Peak Volume V/C Dir Dir 1a East of Durham-Toronto Boundary E 17,300 0.94 E 16,400 0.84 (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) 1b West of Durham-York Boundary E 7,100 0.63 E 6,300 0.56 (14th Avenue to 19th Avenue) 2a West of Brock Road (Bayly to Taunton Road) E 14,300 0.72 W 14,000 0.65 2b West of Brock Road E 7,200 0.63 E 5,600 0.44 (Taunton Road to North Limit) 3a East of Lake Ridge Road E 10,600 0.89 E 12,000 0.70 (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) 3b East of Lake Ridge Road E 4,700 0.50 E 2,900 0.30 (Hwy 7 to Townline Road) 4a West of Thickson Road W 8,500 0.57 W 10,200 0.50 (Victoria Street to Taunton Road) 4b West of Thickson Road E 4,200 0.53 E 3,000 0.35 (Conlin Road to Townline Road) 5a East of Townline Road E 8,800 0.66 E 7,700 0.46 (Hwy 401 to Taunton Road) 5b East of Townline Road E 1,400 0.23 E 700 0.12 (Concession 6 to Concession 10)

6a South of Highway 401 N 13,600 1.04 N 14,000 0.88 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) 6b South of Highway 401 N 14,500 0.88 N 10,800 0.76 (Henry Street to Bloor St) 7a North of Highway 401 N 17,600 1.26 N 17,600 1.04 (Rougemont Drive to Lake Ridge Road) 7b North of Highway 401 N 16,300 0.80 N 14,100 0.63 (Henry Street to Bloor St) 8a North of Taunton Road S 5,700 0.51 S 5,800 0.45 (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) 8b North of Taunton Road S 8,700 0.40 S 8,000 0.41 (Halls Road to Townline Road) 9a North of Highway 407 S 3,400 0.35 S 2,800 0.26 (York-Durham Line to Lake Ridge Road) 9b North of Highway 407 N 3,400 0.37 N 3,100 0.30 (Coronation Road to Townline Road)

January 2018 A-4