If this information is required in an accessible format, please contact 1-800-372-1102 ext. 3753 Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham by IBI Group and Parsons January 2018 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives ......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Transportation Directions .................................................................. 2 Guiding Principles ............................................................................. 2 Transportation Directions .................................................................. 2 1.3 Network Development Approach ...................................................... 4 1.4 Municipal Class EA Process ............................................................. 4 1.5 Report Structure ............................................................................... 4 2 Background ............................................................................................... 6 2.1 Durham Region Transportation Planning Model (DRTPM) ............... 6 2.2 Existing Road Network ..................................................................... 6 2.3 Road Network Expansion ................................................................. 9 2.4 Travel Trends .................................................................................. 11 2.4.1 Self-Containment ................................................................. 11 2.4.2 Mode Share .......................................................................... 13 2.4.3 Auto Ownership .................................................................... 14 2.5 Existing Road Network Performance .............................................. 15 2.6 Natural and Built Environment ........................................................ 17 2.7 Summary and Implications for Road Network Development ........... 19 3 Future Transportation Needs and Opportunities ................................. 20 3.1 Population and Employment Growth .............................................. 20 3.2 2031 Travel Demand ...................................................................... 22 3.3 2031 Travel Patterns ...................................................................... 22 3.4 Commentary on Needs by Area ...................................................... 24 January 2018 i IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) 4 Development of the 2031 Network ......................................................... 26 4.1 Approach for Integrated Network Development .............................. 26 4.2 High-Level Road Network Alternatives ........................................... 26 4.2.1 2031 Base Network .............................................................. 27 4.2.2 2031 Enhanced Network ...................................................... 28 4.3 Comparison of Base and Enhanced Networks ............................... 28 4.4 Network Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................... 37 4.4.1 Highway 401 Widening Sensitivity Test ............................... 37 4.4.2 GO Train Extension to Bowmanville ..................................... 39 4.5 Analysis of Specific Road Segments .............................................. 40 5 2031 Proposed Road Network ................................................................ 47 5.1 Provincial Highway Projects............................................................ 47 5.2 Regional Road Projects .................................................................. 48 5.2.1 Key Projects ......................................................................... 48 5.3 Network Performance of Proposed Network ................................... 67 6 Road Needs Beyond 2031 ...................................................................... 71 6.1 Beyond 2031 Population and Employment Forecasts .................... 71 6.2 Transportation Demand and Network Implications ......................... 74 6.3 Recommendations Beyond 2031 .................................................... 76 7 Prioritization and Phasing ...................................................................... 80 7.1.1 Prioritization Criteria ............................................................. 80 7.1.2 Proposed Phasing ................................................................ 81 8 Road Network Cost ................................................................................. 82 8.1 Capital Costs .................................................................................. 82 January 2018 ii IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) 8.2 Operating and Rehabilitation Costs ................................................ 88 9 Paved Shoulders ..................................................................................... 89 9.1 Benefits and Costs of Paved Shoulders ......................................... 89 9.2 Practices in other Jurisdictions ....................................................... 91 9.2.1 York Region ......................................................................... 91 9.2.2 Region of Waterloo .............................................................. 93 9.2.3 Halton Region ...................................................................... 95 9.2.4 Peel Region .......................................................................... 95 9.2.5 Provincial Jurisdictions ......................................................... 95 9.3 Design Guidelines for Paved Shoulders ......................................... 98 9.4 Paved Shoulder Treatment Recommendations for Durham ......... 100 9.4.1 Summary of Findings ......................................................... 100 9.4.2 Durham Regional Rural Road Characteristics and Shoulder Implementation ................................................................... 100 9.4.3 Recommendations ............................................................. 100 Appendix A – Additional Road Network Performance Data January 2018 iii IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 1.1: Transportation Directions .................................................................. 3 Exhibit 2.1: Jurisdiction and Functional Class of Major Road Network in Durham Region .............................................................................................. 8 Exhibit 2.2: Durham Region Road Network Expansions (2004 – 2017) ............. 10 Exhibit 2.3: Durham Region Road Expansions Scheduled for 2018* ................. 10 Exhibit 2.4: Self-containment Trends for Trips Starting in Durham (AM Peak Period) ............................................................................................ 12 Exhibit 2.5: Self-containment Trends for AM Peak Period Transit Trips from Durham ........................................................................................... 13 Exhibit 2.6: Mode Share for AM Peak Period Trips from Durham, 2001-2011 ... 13 Exhibit 2.7: Household Car Ownership in Durham Region, 2001 to 2011 ......... 14 Exhibit 2.8: Existing Road Network Performance – Congested Links ................ 16 Exhibit 2.9: Natural Features Map ..................................................................... 18 Exhibit 3.1: Official Plan Growth Forecasts ........................................................ 20 Exhibit 3.2: Regional Structure (Schedule ‘A’ of Official Plan) ........................... 21 Exhibit 3.3: Peak Period Travel Demand Growth ............................................... 22 Exhibit 3.4: Trips Starting in Durham Region by Destination (AM Peak Period) 23 Exhibit 3.5: Work Trips Starting in Durham (AM Peak Period) ........................... 23 Exhibit 3.6: Travel Self Containment, 2011 and 2031 Base Network Motorized Travel ............................................................................................. 24 Exhibit 4.1: 2031 Base Network Assumptions ................................................... 27 Exhibit 4.2: 2031 Enhanced Network Assumptions ........................................... 28 Exhibit 4.3: High-level Summary of Model Results –AM Peak Period ............... 30 Exhibit 4.4: High-level Summary of Model Results –PM Peak Period ............... 30 January 2018 iv IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Road Network Development Report Prepared for Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) Exhibit 4.5: 2031 Base Network – Congested Links .......................................... 31 Exhibit 4.6: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – Congested Links ................................. 32 Exhibit 4.7: 2031 Base Scenario – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results .............. 33 Exhibit 4.8: 2031 Base Scenario – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results .............. 34 Exhibit 4.9: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – AM Peak Hour Screenline Results ...... 35 Exhibit 4.10: 2031 Enhanced Scenario – PM Peak Hour Screenline Results .... 36