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Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemical The research described in this report was sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation under Grant No. 2002-10-2. This research was conducted within RAND’s Public Safety and Justice program. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Individual preparedness and response to terrorism : chemical, radiological, nuclear, and biological attacks / Lynn E. Davis ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MR-1731.” ISBN 0-8330-3473-1 (Paperback) 1. Weapons of mass destruction—Safety measures. 2. Nuclear terrorism—Safety measures. 3. Bioterrorism—Safety measures. 4. Chemical terrorism—Safety measures. 5. Survival skills. I. Davis, Lynn E. (Lynn Etheridge), 1943– U793.I53 2003 613.6'9—dc22 2003016656 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE This report presents an individual’s strategy for preparing for, and responding to, terrorist attacks involving chemical, radiological, nuclear, and biological weapons. The objective is to provide simple and clear guidance for individuals to help them protect themselves in the event of an actual terrorist attack, which may involve extremely hazardous and unfamiliar conditions. Steps individuals are now taking or might take to avoid such attacks are not considered in this report. In fall 2002, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation asked RAND to conduct this study in an effort to develop guidance for individuals that would complement terrorism preparedness efforts at the local and national government levels. The result is an empirically based strategy that individuals can adopt and implement on their own. Beyond individuals, government agencies and nongovernmental organizations charged with emergency preparedness, response, and management are encouraged to integrate this material into their plans, training, education, and public awareness campaigns. In addition, the report outlines the important roles that government and businesses play in enabling some of the individual’s actions. The reference card included at the back of the report encapsulates the key rec- ommendations in the individual’s preparedness and response strategy and can be removed for display in a prominent place. This strategy is also available in the form of a quick guide. See Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemi- cal, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks: A Quick Guide, San- ta Monica Calif.: RAND, MR-1731/1, 2003. This study was conducted within RAND’s Public Safety and Justice program. RAND Public Safety and Justice conducts research and analysis that helps inform policymakers and communities in the areas of public safety, including law enforcement, terrorism preparedness, immigration, emergency response and management, and natural disasters; criminal justice, including sentencing iii iv Individual Preparedness and Response to Unconventional Terrorist Attacks and corrections policy, firearms, and community violence; and drug policy, which focuses on problems related to illegal drugs and substance abuse. Inquiries about RAND Public Safety and Justice may be directed to Jack Riley RAND Public Safety and Justice 1700 Main Street Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 310-393-0411 www.rand.org/psj CONTENTS Preface .................................................. iii Figures .................................................. ix Tables................................................... xi Summary ................................................ xiii Acknowledgments.......................................... xxv Acronyms ................................................ xxvii Chapter One INTRODUCTION ....................................... 1 Study Motivation and Objective ............................. 1 Study Approach ........................................ 2 Study Scope ........................................... 3 Organization of This Document ............................. 4 Chapter Two SCENARIO APPROACH TO DEVELOPING AN INDIVIDUAL’S STRATEGY ............................................ 7 Step 1: Develop Terrorist Attack Scenarios ..................... 8 Rationale for a Scenario-Driven Approach ................... 8 Scenario Design Criteria ................................ 8 Scenario Descriptions .................................. 10 Step 2: Define Individual Needs ............................ 13 Step 3: Identify Potential Actions ........................... 15 Step 4: Evaluate Potential Actions ........................... 16 Step 5: Develop an Individual’s Strategy ...................... 18 Chapter Three AN INDIVIDUAL’S STRATEGY .............................. 21 Chemical Attack ........................................ 21 Attack Characteristics .................................. 21 v vi Individual Preparedness and Response to Unconventional Terrorist Attacks Response Strategy: Chemical Attack ....................... 22 Recommended Actions ................................. 23 Actions Not Recommended .............................. 28 Radiological Attack ...................................... 30 Attack Characteristics .................................. 30 Response Strategy: Radiological Attack ..................... 31 Recommended Actions ................................. 32 Actions Not Recommended .............................. 35 Nuclear Attack ......................................... 35 Attack Characteristics .................................. 35 Response Strategy: Nuclear Attack ......................... 36 Recommended Actions ................................. 37 Biological Attacks ....................................... 42 Characteristics........................................ 42 Response Strategy: Biological Attack ....................... 45 Recommended Actions ................................. 46 Actions Not Recommended .............................. 50 Priorities for Response Actions ............................. 51 Preparatory Actions...................................... 52 Understand Requirements of Individual Response Actions ........................................... 52 Gather Information and Develop Plans in Advance ............. 54 Augment General Emergency Preparations ................... 55 Enhance Protection Against Biological Attack ................. 56 Enabling Actions by Government and Businesses ................ 57 Inform Individuals About Official Terrorism Response Plans ...... 58 Design Education and Training Programs .................... 59 Implement Detection and Warning Systems .................. 59 Regulate Retail Equipment Marketed for Terrorism Response .......................................... 61 Chapter Four CONCLUSIONS......................................... 63 Our Recommended Individual’s Strategy ...................... 63 Comparison with Current Terrorism Guidelines ................. 67 How Can Our Approach Be Used in The Future? ................. 69 Appendix A. CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM SCENARIOS .................... 71 B. EMERGENCY GUIDELINES ................................ 125 C. FOCUS GROUP METHODS AND RESULTS .................... 143 Contents vii D. A REVIEW OF THE RISK-PERCEPTION AND RISK- COMMUNICATION LITERATURE ........................... 147 Bibliography .............................................. 153 FIGURES 2.1. Overview of Approach ................................. 7 3.1. Blast Zone and Radioactive Fallout Contours for a One- Kiloton and a Ten-Kiloton Nuclear Explosion ................ 39 A.1. Casualty Contours of Aerosolized Sarin over a Four-Hour Period............................................. 74 A.2. Timeline of Sarin Scenario .............................. 76 A.3. Timeline of Hydrogen Cyanide Scenario ................... 80 A.4. Hydrogen Cyanide Concentration Over Time ................ 81 A.5. The Initial Hazard of Americium 241 ...................... 89 A.6. Long-Term Contamination of Cesium 137 and Americium 241 ...................................... 91 A.7. Timeline of Dirty Bomb Scenario ......................... 92 A.8. One Kiloton Prompt Blast Effects—Overpressure Contours (A), Radiation Dose Contours (B), Burn Contours (C), and Local Fallout 24-Hour Radiation Dose Contours (D) ........... 99 A.9. Timeline of Nuclear Detonation Scenario .................. 100 A.10. Efficient and Inefficient Anthrax Dispersal Density ............ 107 A.11. Timeline of Anthrax Scenario ........................... 107 A.12. Fatalities per Week for Large-Scale Anthrax Scenario .......... 109 A.13. Smallpox Infections and Fatalities per Generation ............ 112 A.14. Timeline of Events in Smallpox Scenario ................... 120 A.15. Timeline of Smallpox Scenario .......................... 121 ix TABLES S.1, Preparatory Actions................................... xxv 2.1. Scenario Effects.....................................
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