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Forecasting the Risk of Encounter with Mosquito

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Forecasting the Risk of Encounter with Mosquito COMPARING MOSQUITO COMMUNITIES OF VARIOUS PATCH-MATRIX LANDSCAPE COMBINATIONS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING MODELS TO FORECAST ABUNDANCES OF IMPORTANT MOSQUITO TAXA A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School University of Missouri-Columbia In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy by ALFRED T. LEAK Dr. Richard Houseman Dissertation Supervisor MAY 2010 The undersigned, appointed by the Dean of the Graduate Faculty, have examined a dissertation entitled COMPARING MOSQUITO COMMUNITIES OF VARIOUS PATCH-MATRIX LANDSCAPE COMBINATIONS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING MODELS TO FORECAST ABUNDANCES OF IMPORTANT MOSQUITO TAXA Presented by Alfred T. Leak a candidate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Entomology and hereby certify in their opinion it is worthy of acceptance. Major professor: Dr. Richard Houseman Dissertation Committee: Dr. Patrick Guinan Dr. Robert Hall Dr. Robert Sites Dr. Qisheng Song ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank my major advisor Dr. Richard Houseman for his guidance, support, and encouragement. Dr. Houseman, you are an exemplary urban entomologist and a genuinely nice and good person. I will always appreciate the effort you gave and the time you yielded in my support, and I look forward to a continuing productive relationship now that I’m “turning pro”. I also thank the members of my thesis committee, Drs. Robert Sites, Qisheng Song, Robert Hall, and Patrick Guinan, for their intellectual contributions. Dr. Sites, you have always been, and will always be, a mentor to me of the highest esteem. Dr. Song, your difficult questions and valuable perspectives have helped me become a better entomologist. Dr. Hall, I hope you realize what an inspiration you have been to me, with your words, your teaching, and your career. Dr. Guinan, I appreciate your contributions to my research and the enlightening discussions we have engaged in. Thanks to the faculty and staff of the Department of Entomology at the University of Missouri, for the top-notch education and the financial contributions to this effort. Thanks also to the St. Louis Pest Control Association for their interest in this research and their monetary award. To the many families who donated their yards for sampling, the Borens, the Harrises, the Aufderheides, the Cohles, the Poores, the Brinkmans, the Kellenbargers, the Housemans, the Fiesers, the Obleys, the Feutzes, the Tuninks, and the rest of you whose names I never learned: appreciation and gratitude. Thanks to Barbie Raines for the assistance in formatting this document. Thanks also to my many fellow students, whose camaraderie and advice were always welcome. Special thanks go to my many family members who have never (or at least rarely) doubted or questioned this strange and wonderful extended journey I have taken them on. To my parents, Theresa Devall and Al Leak, thanks for the brains, and all the encouragement I ever needed to keep using them. To Elaine Barnes, I hope all of this has made you smile. To Johnna Leak, Courtney Leak, Michael Leak, and Philip Leak, thanks ii for all the help packing and unpacking supplies and driving with me all over the place. Courtney, thanks also for the assistance sorting those thousands of mosquitoes. Michael, thanks for helping with no complaint. Philip, thanks for knowing what I needed before I asked for it. The last words of thanks go to my wife, Johnna. The spouse of an entomologist learns to tolerate unorthodox behavior, and when this spouse also has no particular fondness for insects, well, Johnna put it aptly when she said, “It’s hard to see a bag of bugs going in your freezer.” Johnna, you’ve been there with me through all of this, the long nights of studying and writing and the periods of self-doubt. You’ve also been with me for the high-flying moments, and because you were there, the great times made the difficulties unimportant. You did all of this just because you love me, and I want you to know that this is your accomplishment every bit as much as it is mine. I’ll never be more proud of myself than you are of me, and that is why I dedicate this achievement to you. I love you with all my heart. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................................v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... ix INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 REVIEW OF PERTINENT LITERATURE .......................................................................3 MATERIALS AND METHODS .......................................................................................18 ANALYSES .......................................................................................................................24 RESULTS ..........................................................................................................................25 Community description ..........................................................................................25 Landscape associations ..........................................................................................27 Temporal dynamics ................................................................................................35 Relationships between weather factors and mosquito abundance, 2007 - 2009 ....57 Use of previous years’ data to predict subsequent mosquito abundances .............60 Canonical correspondence analysis .......................................................................64 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................................69 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH ..................................................................89 REFERENCES CITED ......................................................................................................93 APPENDIX A. Trap locations and associated information ............................................182 APPENDIX B. Pearson’s correlation matrix for all trapping data .................................188 APPENDIX C. Canonical correspondence analysis results (from .txt files) ..................193 VITA ................................................................................................................................215 iv LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Total number and proportion of total mosquitoes collected from all patch-matrix landscape combinations during 2007 – 2009 in five counties of central Missouri ...............................................................................................................111 2. Mosquito taxa correlations greater than 0.5 according to Pearson’s correlation matrix, indicating a linear relationship between occurrences of the taxa in five counties of central Missouri during 2007 – 2009 .........................................112 3. Mosquito taxa richness (S), mean abundance per trap (A), diversity measures (H’, 1/D), and taxa evenness (E) for each landscape matrix type sampled in five counties of central Missouri during 2007 – 2009 .........................................113 4. Mosquito taxa richness (S) for each patch-matrix landscape combination plus overall mean and standard deviation for each matrix type in five counties of central Missouri during 2007 – 2009. Patch-matrix combinations of the same type (i.e., cropland-cropland, forest-forest, etc.) indicate samples from the matrix only ...........................................................................................................114 5. Mean mosquito abundance per trap (A) for each patch-matrix landscape combination and overall mean and standard deviation for each matrix type in five counties of central Missouri during 2007 – 2009. Patch-matrix combinations of the same type (i.e., cropland-cropland, forest-forest, etc.) indicate samples from the matrix only .................................................................115 6. Diversity measures for each patch-matrix landscape combination and overall mean and standard deviation for each matrix type for five counties of central Missouri during 2007 – 2009. Patch-matrix combinations of the same type (i.e., cropland-cropland, forest-forest, etc.) indicate samples from the matrix only ......................................................................................................................116 7. Taxon evenness for each patch-matrix landscape combination and overall mean and standard deviation for each matrix type for five counties of central Missouri during 2007 – 2009. Patch-matrix combinations of the same type (i.e., cropland-cropland, forest-forest, etc.) indicate samples from the matrix only ......................................................................................................................117 8. Total abundance and percent of total for each mosquito taxon collected from each matrix type during 2007 – 2009 in five counties of central Missouri .........118 iiiv 9. Mosquito taxa that made up at least 1% of the total identified mosquitoes from each patch type within each matrix during 2007 – 2009 for five counties in central Missouri. Patch-matrix combinations of the same type (i.e., cropland- cropland, forest-forest, etc.) indicate
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