The Gulf Crisis and the Rising Uncertainty

Amna Abdulla Sadiq Qatar University, P.O. Box: 2083, Doha, Qatar

The Gulf Cooperation Council as a regional organization has played a crucial role Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 on building peace in the Middle East and becoming a global partner in the promotion of free trade. For three decades now, the GCC enjoys a regional supremacy to become a vocal point for global partners, empowered by its members’ economic prosperity, internal stability and geo-strategic importance. This position allowed the prosperity of a new model of regional integration that aims to promote the global principles of peace and trade. This paper discusses this regional model and explains the latest development of the so-called Gulf crisis that not only questions the regional integration of the Gulf but also the principles this regional integration presented throughout the three decades. In particular, this paper aims to discuss the issue of succession and region - alism, putting the sustainability of regionalism in question. The paper consternates on the role of the GCC in particular, but also provides a context of the rising uncer - tainty within the international system.

Key words: GCC, Gulf Crisis, Liberal International Order, Regional Integration

Introduction When US President Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Churchill met in Placentia Bay on August 14, 1941 and drafted the Atlantic Charter, a liberal international order was set in motion. The foundational principles of self-governance, peace and security, economic prosperity, and free trade were built into that Charter. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), being an active regional organization in the Arabian Gulf, has played a pivotal role in promoting these principles, despite the hostile environ - ment of this region, and has provided a model of new regionalism as a mechanism that promotes the values and principles of the liberal interna - tional order. In doing so, during the last three decades, the GCC has played two cards—trade and stability—in promoting itself strategically for both East and West. The so-called Gulf crisis is merely one more disappointment to the liberal order, adding to the withdrawal of the new American administra - tion from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, referred to as Brexit. With regard to these events, succession is a challenge for the sustainability of the regional agreements and orga - nizations. It seems to have been forgotten that regionalization is not necessarily progressive and that any regional project signifies renewal as well as change. If this is the case, then why is regionalism not sustainable,

The Arab World Geograph er / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) 142 -154 © 2017 Geo Publishing, Toronto Canada The Gulf Crisis and the Rising Uncertainty 143 and how far can regional trade agreements be trusted? Was regionalism limited to just a couple of generations? How does this really affect the principles of the liberal international order? The Gulf crisis has proven that the liberal international order is vulnerable when exposed to the determination of the political systems and that its principles are depen -

dent on the political will and not on institutions in various cases. Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 However, while there have been attempts to understand the impact of the Gulf crisis on Qatar’s economy, there has been little investigation into the implications of the crisis for the increasing uncertainty in the liberal international order. Therefore, this paper will explore the implications of the current Gulf crisis for the model of regionalism presented by the GCC as part of the global efforts to promote the principles of the liberal order. It concentrates on the relations between political succession and regional sustainability and argues that regionalism, as a tool used to promote the principles of the liberal international order, is neither sustainable nor stable.

Regionalism and the Liberal World Order The rise of regionalism in the international community is considered as both a response to and part of the development of a new world order based on peace and stability. More precisely, regionalism is divided into two main waves: old regionalism and new regionalism in the post-Cold War era ( and Shaw 2003). The first wave of regionalism Söderbaum started in the 1940s in Western Europe as a peace-building initiative in reaction to the devastating World Wars, but it had faded by the 1970s. However, the second wave is characterised by its multidimensional func - tions and had become a dominant trend in the international community by the mid-1980s and 1990s (Ravenhill 2002). According to Hettne et al. (1999), new regionalism did not come to destroy old regionalism but was introduced new patterns and more developed dimensions. Therefore, we can observe that most of the regional organizations were renewed or re- inaugurated during the 1980s as the EU, while other regions, by the polit - ical will, became regional organizations such as the GCC. In fact, regional integration has become a central topic for various theoretical assumptions, many of which concern the motives of states to establish regional organization based on economic considerations. On one hand, neoliberalism stresses the role of international and regional institutions in mediating the competing interests of the states by estab - lishing common grounds for cooperation (Baldwin 1993). States agree to limit their sovereignty for the sake of reaching mutual dependency (Baldwin 1993). Accordingly, each integration starts with cooperation and coordination in economic areas, in which states’ sovereignty is less sensitive, leading to a spillover toward further unification. The European Union is the best exemplar of neoliberal integration (Máselník 2011).

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Europe’s unification started with the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community, and this economic integration developed to include more policy areas and broad geographical areas with different cultures. The neoliberal approach to regional integration, as noted above, stresses the importance of institu -

tions in facilitating cooperation among states by shaping new norms that Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 are able to constrain state power. Accordingly, states agree to give an autonomous regional organization the supranational authority to under - score the existing trade ties with the aim of achieving further benefits for all the integrated parties. However, a new paradigm criticizing the existing theoretical body in explaining regional economic integration has started to emerge. The new regionalism paradigm aims to explain economic regionalism from the perspective of developing countries, bringing new dimensions to the understanding of the dynamics of regional integration. It argues that the main reason for the development of regionalism is the pressures from globalization (Hurrell 1995). In fact, new regionalism generally has a shallow policy integration aim or an inward orientation with loose supra - national institutions, and the intention of this regional integration is to integrate the global community, using it as a tool to facilitate the liberal - ization process (Nesadurai 2003). One of the characteristics of new regionalism is the emergence of inter-regional dialogues aiming to promote South–North trade relations (Hurrell 1995). Accordingly, the European Union has had a significant impact on the development of new regionalism; through dialogue, the EU has influenced the institutions and practices of other regions (Byron, 2014). In contrast to classic forms of economic regionalism, new regionalism allows and accepts competitive - ness among members, aiming to enhance local economies with a model of intergovernmental integration rather than a supranational regional orga - nization (Hurrell 1995). Low and Salazar suggest that economic integra - tion could exist between countries that value their sovereignty and economic nationalism, the ASEAN and the GCC being two successful examples of such integration (Low and Salazar 2011). In Arabia, the networks of kinship, social relations, and political dependency were the origin of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s intra- regional coalitions. In fact, social affinities, in addition to geographical proximity, are crucial in the development of the regional awareness that is required for the establishment of a regional organization, as nations that recognize their similarities are more likely to reach common grounds and develop the political will needed to form regional agreements (Hettne 2003). However, the regional turmoil necessitated the establishment of the organization. The GCC was established in the second wave of region - alism, during which the organization was established in May 1981 amidst

The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) The Gulf Crisis and the Rising Uncertainty 145 uncertain regional turmoil, which resulted in the longest war in the region, the Iraq–Iran War and the born of the revolutionary Iran (Koch 2010). The leaders of Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates signed the founding charter, which was broad and general in its objectives and intentions, in Abu Dhabi (GCC-SG

2012). One of the founding objectives of the GCC was to balance the Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 power in the region. Although the GCC came to isolate its members from the ideological conflict in the Middle East, its role as a balancer in the region was not limited to this. The GCC also sought to enforce stability and peace beyond its borders through diplomacy, development initia - tives, and political intervention. It was not able to prevent competitive - ness, but it was able to play a positive role for the members in overcoming their existing conflicts and agreeing frameworks for economic, diplo - matic, and security cooperation. This nexus of security necessity and historical affinities was the main reason for the development of a new regional bloc that was able to develop a global vision for their integration. Kristian Ulrichsen (2011) has conducted a study about the emerging role of the GCC countries in the international system. Ulrichsen suggested that the GCC played a crucial role in the rebalancing of the global power. The rise of the GCC countries was basically a result of the wise distribution of the huge oil revenues during the 2000s in a time of global recession. This emerging role used oil revenues to invest in and lobby various economic and financial institutions. The GCC countries took a step further and started to demand reforms for international orga - nizations, mainly the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund. More specifically, Ulrichsen argued that the GCC countries took the lead in responding to the Arab uprising in 2011. He found that the role of the financial support was clear in Egypt and helped to prevent the economic system from collapsing, although it was fragmented. However, the differences in the visions and policies hindered this role in Syria and limited the prospect of better outcomes for peace in the Middle East.

Features of the GCC States A great deal of the development of a regional organization with outward orientation in the Gulf deals with the nature of the member states. In practice the GCC owns the privilege to act as a stabiliser and commercial entre in the region, having achieved a remarkable edge regionally in the Arab surroundings. We can identify briefly the factors that privileged the GCC to achieve this regional supremacy and global recognition as the internal stability, economic security, and geo-strategic importance. These factors have played a particularly active role in supporting the Gulf Alliance as a regional organization that can balance the power in the region. At first, the GCC monarchies enjoyed relative internal stability

The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) 146 Amna Abdulla Sadiq compared with their neighbouring countries in the Middle East, as the ruling regimes in these countries are hereditary monarchies that lack popular representation in the executive branch, allowing a stable succes - sion of thorns even with cases that involve a coup d’état (Partrick 2009). Nonetheless, the political systems in the Gulf countries are rooted in

long-existing social contracts with their people, whereby they enjoy Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 popular legitimacy through a network of complex historical relationships (Partrick 2009). It is also the high rate of upper and lower middle class across the Gulf, that constrained the political demands and uprising, in which they prefer stability that can maintain this welfare mainly in light of the underlying social contracts. These factors combined gave the foreign policy of the Gulf States to act in a relatively isolation from the societies and communities, which allowed the state to ally with different nations and in different levels. Second, the GCC economies are supported by a wealth of natural resources, which is one of their most important advantages. Today, the combined economies of the Gulf States constitute a global economic force in the markets of oil and natural gas (Abdulqader 2015). This economic prosperity enabled the Gulf States to adopt different develop - ment initiatives through developmental aid and loans. Today, some of the GCC states rank among the most generous global donors and are at the top of the oil and natural gas exporters (Abdulqader 2015). Besides the global weight, the GCC is the first organization to take serious steps towards economic integration in the Middle East by reaching the final stages in the activation of the Gulf common market, which seeks to present the Gulf States to the world as a single economic bloc. This economic stability and global orientation of the markets, gave GCC states the supremacy to adopt very expensive and high level initiatives. It also presented the GCC as a unified economic bloc, presenting a large consumers market for foreign agencies and transnational companies, which pressures for more openness. These attracted various countries and regional blocs to apply for a trade dialogue with the GCC. It also gave GCC countries a weight at the international organizations and financial markets. Finally, the GCC is located in a hotspot in the middle of Iran, Turkey, and Iraq. It is also relatively close to the Arab–Israeli conflict, Pakistan, and Afghanistan (Gulf Policies 2013). Those areas are considered to be vital areas of conflict and instability. Furthermore, they are close to the industry of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The GCC as a partner can provide both trust and the ability to play a major role in promoting the principles of peace and prosperity in the hostile environment under the umbrella of regional intervention. The GCC’s strategic location, combined with its economic capabilities and internal stability, has allowed

The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) The Gulf Crisis and the Rising Uncertainty 147 these states to play a major role in giving the organization an advantage in gaining legitimacy and international support for regional intervention under Chapter VIII of the Charter of the United Nations. Here we can refer to GCC states’ compatibility as solidarity, and solidarity is intended collectively to adopt a regional initiative or support a member state’s initiative to promote peace and stability in the region. A good example Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 would be the Saudi coalition in Yemen, which was supported by most of the GCC countries, giving it a weight and legitimacy. In short, the GCC states provided a good combination as a safe ally for the Western powers, as they are monarchies that hold less extreme political ideologies and have long-existing ruling families that rule on well-established social contracts. This superiority to their Middle Eastern counterparts gave GCC regimes a privilege as a pivotal bloc to develop partnerships that promote peace and stability in two key areas, namely the adoption of wide initiatives and the confidence of international alliances to promote these initiatives. First, the political systems in the Gulf have the ability to move in wide initiatives without encountering real domestic problems for foreign policy decisions, in which they enjoy the freedom of movement to sign agreements and alliances without answering questions or needing to provide justification to their people. Second, the high level of confidence in the stability of the Gulf monar - chies among the international community produces stability and sustain - ability to maintain alliances for long periods without real threats to their commitments in securing the region.

The GCC as a Model of New Regionalism Building on this understanding of GCC regionalism, the GCC emerged as a partner that can promote the principles of the liberal world order in the Middle East. In particular, the economic pillar of this integration reflects its outward orientation, which member states sought by adopting the further integration of the economic pillar into the global economy. Therefore, the GCC countries adopted outward planning strategies for the development of diplomatic and economic integration. On one hand, the GCC was among the earliest regional blocs to promote inter-regional trade agreements, the so-called South–North dialogues. The first phase of GCC economic integration lasted from 1981 to 2002, when the GCC countries eliminated intra-regional trade barriers and started the process of coordinating trade policies and economic procedures (Rouis and Tabor 2012). Although this stage did not necessitate the states adopting common policies against third parties, the GCC had already commenced inter-regional trade negotiations to sign Free Trade Area (FTA) with the two economic blocs including the EU. However, the GCC Member

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States amended the economic agreement in 2001 with a specific timeline: a complete free trade area to be reached in 2003 through a custom union followed by a common market in 2007 and a monetary union in 2010 (GCC-SG 2004; Sturm and Siegfried 2005). The GCC also notified the WTO of the establishment of the customs union to be ratified under the enabling clause, claiming that the GCC is a regional agreement among Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 developing countries (Naaoush 2009). One of the principles of the Unified Economic Agreements was to establish a “Negotiating Team” to assist in adopting a unified “GCC strategy governing their relations with other countries and regional and international economic groupings and organizations” (GCC-SG 2012). By amending the economic agreement, the Supreme Council approved and advanced the plan of the strategic dialogue. The GCC entered various inter-regional dialogues or South–North trade agreements with the launch of the Gulf strategic dialogues; these agreements in particular were considered as part of the promotion of trade against war. This means that entering inter-regional trade agreements allows economic interdependence that can in return produce mutual dependence, preventing conflict and overcoming trust issues. Since then, more than 10 economic blocs and countries have entered into negotiations for FTAs with the GCC as a regional economic bloc, and three FTAs have been finalized with the EFTA, Lebanon, and Singapore (Legranzi 2011). Through these trade agreements, the GCC has been able to promote international partnerships, being a vocal region of economic prosperity and development. In addition, although the GCC as an organization did not hold secu - rity as one of its founding objectives, it provided a good vocal point for cooperation in the field of security. That actually started by the end of the Second Gulf War, during which the GCC countries started to sign protec - tion agreements with the world powers. The GCC countries joined collec - tive arrangements with the superpowers against common threats. The last arrangement was with the US against Iranian threats. Hence, the US announced its future plans for the allocation of the US missile defence in the Arabian Gulf with the aim of protecting the GCC against any Iranian threats (Shanker 2012). However, Bahrain had held the Fifth Fleet of the United States since the 1940s, but it had empowered its capacity by the 1990s. Today, the GCC is also a partner in the US-led coalition against the ISIL, while four of the GCC members are joining operations for the Saudi-led collation in Yemen. Finally, the GCC countries are partners in promoting the liberal world order with their collective diplomacy, in which their coalitions with the Western powers operate in different areas, such as sustainable devel - opment and climate change. In fact, the collective foreign policy frame -

The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) The Gulf Crisis and the Rising Uncertainty 149 works provided by the GCC either in economics or in security have made this regional organization a distinct model of regionalism. This model presents the GCC as a pivotal global partner that can promote global peace and prosperity and enter long-term partnerships. What makes the GCC different from other regional organization is that it was not estab - lished as a fortress organization that protects its own countries from glob - Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 alization. Nonetheless, the GCC challenged the hypothesis that regionalism is a form of protectionism that opposes interdependence and global governance. This model of regionalism gained respect and appre - ciation from the international community, and that is why there is inter - national pressure for the GCC to overcome the crisis and heal the regional wounds.

GCC Anticlimax: Regionalism Revisited On June 5 four states—Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the Emirates, and Egypt—boycotted Qatar by cutting off transport links and diplomatic relations. They claimed that Qatar was threatening the peace and stability of the region by supporting terrorism and standing with Iran (Wintour 2017). Kuwait offered to mediate in the crisis, and Oman subse - quently announced its support for the Kuwaiti efforts. Similarly, most of the GCC allies supported the Kuwaiti efforts and pressured the GCC to remain united. As a matter of fact, the Gulf crisis is a disappointment to GCC residents, who believe that they can enjoy the economic, social, and political advantages of being, effectively, within a regional bloc. This sentiment is shared by the GCC allies, who believe in the role that the GCC plays in the stability of the region, and by the scholars who believe in regionalism as a complement of the liberal international order. After the world became certain that this regional organization is an influential partner in the prosperity of the global system and the stability of the liberal world order, the Gulf crisis surprised the world with the weight of the accusations and conflict. Nonetheless, the current Gulf crisis harms the liability of the GCC as a unified ally and damages the trust in the rationality of the GCC states. It also brings into question the approach of integration provided in the GCC by the social affinities combined with security vis-à-vis the EU spillover model. Although the GCC states lack democracy, the model shows that even monarchies can promote peace and prosperity. Nonetheless, the GCC challenged the hypothesis that regionalism is a form of protectionism that opposes interdependence and global gover - nance. However, the current Gulf crisis has proved that the GCC as a model of new regionalism is not sustainable; rather, the sustainability of regionalism is dependent on the will of the regimes.

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However, in the GCC neither the regional norms that bind these states nor the regional agreements and institutions were able to keep the unity of the region, bringing the question of regionalism’s sustainability to the fore. More precisely, how can long regional organization serve the same cause, how long are they the only way to serve the cause, and to

what extent can they maintain trust? If we look at the bigger picture, the Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 best description of the recent Gulf crisis can be given by comparing it with a succession nightmare playing out within a family business, one which neither the Western advisors nor the founding fathers of the GCC were able to overcome. It may be said that everyone believed in the potential of this regional experience, with the exception of the GCC states’ succes - sors. Every organization experiences changes in members’ political lead - ership, but determining how well they sustain the integrity of the regional agreements depends on the extent to which this leadership integrates the principle of the organization within their visions. More precisely, it is important for these states to manage their foreign affairs through states’ institutions and not personal ones, whereby a change in the political system will not affect states’ alliances and cooperation. Most impor - tantly, trust that was built through the journey of regionalism ought to be transformable. Eventually, it is certainly the lack of powerful institutions to guide and govern the decision-making process in the GCC that is behind the crisis. If the regional organization lacks the supranational authority and states’ foreign policy is made in very small and closed circles, then the states’ principle is valuable to the willing of these circles. Therefore, any change in the decision makers is more likely to influence the stability of the organizations. The new Saudi era, empowered by the ambitious vision of Saudi 2030 has started to make a new coalition in the region, which is building new visions for its architecture. For instance, in 2011 Saudi Arabia called for greater “unity” among the GCC states to over - come the Iranian threat (Khalaf 2014). However, Saudi’s new leadership threatened to break up the GCC to overcome the same Iranian threat. Hence, the rhetoric of “one Gulf, one nation” and “one stand, one destiny” is no longer serving those systems or weapons to fight the regional threats. It is apparent that the current Gulf crisis has proved, even in the monarchies, where thrones are inherited and where the conti - nuity between past and present political systems is greatest, that regional agreements and visions are not sustainable. It is very obvious that the third-generation leaders in the GCC states have different visions from their predecessors and that the historical contracts have become less valuable. It is a few months since a new gener - ation of leaders started to attain power in the Gulf for the first time in decades. While the Gulf States are bound together by social and cultural

The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) The Gulf Crisis and the Rising Uncertainty 151 ties, tradition and history, and similarity in political systems, their current national visions are state-centric. Today, this nationalistic vision of the future is not limited to human and economic development; it extends further, towards changing the architecture of the region with a foreign policy that aspires to regional supremacy and the global balance

of power. After more than three decades, Iran is a neighbouring country, Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 not a revolutionary party, and Iraq is no longer a threat with its separated regions. Saudi is also not satisfied with its balance of power in the region, mainly after the rise of Iranian threats in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. At first, because regionalism requires a minimum amount of shared sovereignty and access to state institutions, any crisis has the potential to become hostile. While Europeans will experience Brexit via soft with - drawal, GCC residents are learning this lesson the hard way. Today, more than 11,000 GCC residents are expected to be harmed directly by the sudden crisis. As UN Human Rights and Amnesty International have warned, the Gulf crisis is expected to damage the livelihood of the people who have benefited from the GCC agreements, splitting up families, expelling Qatari students from universities, withdrawing workers from Qatari institutions, and freezing the assets of businesses (Beaumont 2017). It has become obvious that, in the absence of rational decision making and strong regional institutions, a regional agreement is also a potentially dangerous political tool that can be used to bring about cata - strophic human rights violations. The four states have indicated that this boycott is not directed against the Qatari people but is an attempt to exert pressure on the Qatari regime to prevent it from supporting terrorism (as it is claimed to do) (Wintour 2017). In short, the three GCC states bene - fited from their access to the Qatari economic system to create damage, warning other partners about the threats of regional agreements. The crisis is also disappointing for those who wish for peace in the Middle East. The Gulf crisis is a disappointment for GCC allies and busi - ness partners who had banked on GCC regional agreements, believing that they were exempt from change and that they could rely on the peace and prosperity of these nations. Instead, the Gulf crisis has proved the contrary; it has turned out that the GCC countries are similar to their Arab neighbours when it comes to decision making. The US, among other nations, found its own national security threatened because it treated the GCC as a regional bloc, in which two of its allies are now in conflict. Nonetheless, if the current Gulf crisis can bring something to the memory of the Gulf’s allies, it would be the damage of the oil embargo in 1973. When oil-exporting nations decided to apply the so-called Arab boycott, a great number of foreign companies and banks started to with - draw from the region. In addition, a large number of studies and reports started to warn investors about the liability of these states, including the

The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017) 152 Amna Abdulla Sadiq later GCC states. Today, the GCC has signed framework agreements for free trade dialogue with the EU, Singapore, Australia, and 11 other nations, while the UK expressed its willingness to start free trade negoti - ations with the GCC earlier this year. For the outside world, the GCC has proved to be among the few areas of stability in the Middle East and, with

regard to free trade at least, had become part of the liberal international Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/awg/article-pdf/20/2-3/142/1446852/1480-6800_20_2_142.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 order. The threat from the GCC countries in breaking up the regional organization without strong grounds is likely to be disruptive and a disappointment to that order, closing its only window in the Arabian Gulf. It should also prompt scholars to revisit the idea of regionalism and question its basis of sustainability and stability.

Concluding Remarks In short, it is essential for the GCC institutions to work in complete harmony with the local laws and legislative bodies to create a seamless landscape that allows the regional market to flourish and global partner - ships to develop. In smaller countries GCC elites would be unable to cope with the domestic challenges of increasing the internal demands for stable incomes that can fulfil the needs of the development-related commit - ments and the increasing population of young people. In the meantime the GCC countries also have to contend with the uncertainty that is emphasized by the new global agenda, driven by the rise of populism. This is likely to influence the GCC relations, partnerships, and alliances, and it will require more than security concerns to maintain the strong ties. Taken together, these challenges indicate that the international and domestic environments pose two choices for GCC countries—either to become stronger and wiser as a regional bloc or to remain fragmented and waste the opportunity. Therefore, mature regional integration is needed to maximize the GCC’s opportunities in the international community and broaden the prospective opportunities for the increasing internal demands. The GCC is now, more than at any time before, required to work as a single unit that expresses a mature economic outlook and can capture the moment by holding a position on global trade affairs. It is now time for the GCC to initiate an effective regional market that will both benefit and promote GCC countries. This would be a regional integration that is not shaped by the regional unstable environment but rather by the potential that exists for economic development. The question remains: will this changing inter - national community influence the existing approaches that define the rationales of regionalism?

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The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 20, no 2-3 (2017)