. Libya Weekly

Operational Preview

July 11, 2021

Prepared by:

Risk Analysis Team, Libya

© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary

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© Table of Contents

Outlook ...... 3 Short Term Outlook ...... 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ...... 3 Executive Summary ...... 3 Political Developments ...... 3 Military Developments ...... 4 Security Developments ...... 4 Coronavirus ...... 4 Oil & Gas Developments ...... 4 Travel ...... 5 Health ...... 5 Threat Matrix ...... 5 Key Dates ...... 5 Assessment ...... 6 Political Developments ...... 6 Military Developments ...... 6 Security Developments ...... 6 Coronavirus ...... 6 Regional Assessment ...... 7 Tripolitania Region ...... 7 Region ...... 8 Fezzan Region ...... 9 Offshore ...... 10 Acronym List ...... 11

GardaWorld ...... 12 Information Services ...... 12 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management...... 12

This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya Operational report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya.

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© Outlook

Short Term Outlook

▪ Political progress is slowing as enduring divisions surface within the Libyan political scene. The proposed December elections are looking increasingly at risk after the LPDF failed to come to a consensus at the start of July. The UN-backed process is beginning to show some signs of fracturing as the pressure builds. With tensions flaring, efforts to find a consensus are likely to become more difficult with allegations talks are increasingly being held outside of official meetings resulting in a lack of transparency. ▪ Cases of COVID-19 have begun increasing significantly in Libya, likely driven by the introduction of the Delta variant. As a result, the border with Tunisia has been closed and a new joint department is being established between the ministries of interior and health to better coordinate the response. Further responses are likely in the coming days and weeks with little to no notice. ▪ Crime (including carjackings, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions.

Medium to Long Term Outlook

▪ Enduring divisions are resurfacing, threatening the progress seen in the first half of 2021 when a new united government was installed. The UN process and Berlin outcomes are beginning to unravel which could leave space for other external actors to increase their influence, furthering their own individual agendas. The UN is likely to come under increasing pressure to get the political process back on track in a bid to keep the December elections a realistic prospect however, various compromises will be needed. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in . Executive Summary

Political Developments

▪ Efforts by Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah and his ministers to push through the budget at an HoR session on July 05 proved unsuccessful. Another session has now been slated for July 12 with the HoR requesting more amendments and a reduction in the figure requested. ▪ As a result of the current stalemate, reports have suggested alternative avenues are being considered by the GNU in order to pass the budget. This could include gaining approval from the Presidential Council (PC) and the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) however any efforts to circumvent the HoR are likely to add to the growing tensions and put further strain on the fragile peace process. ▪ Deloitte International presented its independent audit report on both branches of the CBL this week. The audit was requested by the GNA and ratified by the UN in 2018 and is part of efforts aimed at unifying the two branches. Initial reactions suggest the report has added to the ongoing pressure to unify and has at least triggered talks with both governors meeting in person for the first time since 2014. It remains to be seen however if it provides a springboard towards unity or further tensions and a continuation of the current situation. ▪ Although hopes that the elections will take place in December have nosedived over the last

fortnight, the High National Election Commission (HNEC) has continued its preparations. This week

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© it launched its voter registration update campaign, described by UNSMIL as a key milestone towards the December elections. ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Dbeibah announced this week that talks were ongoing to select two defense ministers from the 5+5 Joint Military Council (JMC). The move comes after Dbeibah came under pressure from the PC at the end of June to appoint someone to the controversial post. ▪ The Greek consulate opened in on July 05 as the city begins to reestablish diplomatic relationships with various external states and agencies. ▪ Reports indicate that a US lobbying firm has signed a $50,000 a month contract to represent former interior minister (GNA), Fathi Bashagha in the US and promote him as a presidential candidate. The contract, worth $600,000 is for a renewable period of a year.

Military Developments

▪ Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the LNA, made a statement this week giving his reasons for the withdrawal of LNA forces from Tripoli in 2020. He blamed the US for a change in policy for the retreat after Haftar refused to step away from Moscow. While he stated the LNA was supporting current diplomatic efforts and the December elections, he warned a return to warfare remained on the table. ▪ Chief of Staff (western forces), Mohamed al-Haddad, travelled to Moscow on July 10 for a five-day visit. This would be his second visit after traveling with Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah in April.

Security Developments

▪ On July 08, armed men launched a dawn attack on the 128 Battalion (LNA) Headquarters north of Sawknah. The attackers were mobile in four armed vehicles with the LNA likely suggesting the attackers were aligned with Volcano of Rage units. ▪ On July 09, reports indicated that SDF had forcibly taken control of a Misratan militia HQ on Nasser University Road. Hours later, 444 Combat Unit was allegedly mobilising around the Shok Road area. ▪ Another mass grave has been found in Tarhunah this week. This is the latest in a string of finds since Kani Brigade was ousted from the town in mid-2020 and the second in a month to be found at the same agricultural area.

Coronavirus

▪ Cases of COVID-19 have increased significantly this week in Libya with reports suggesting this is being driven by the introduction of the Delta variant. As a result, Libya has closed its borders with neighbouring Tunisia on July 08 for at least a week as it seeks to slow down the spread. The move comes as reports suggest the Tunisian medical system is coming under significant strain as it deals with its own increase in cases. ▪ Both Benina and Mitiga Airport have reduced the validity of PCR tests from 72 hours to 48 hours. The move came earlier in the week however it would appear the Delta variant was already circulating. ▪ The ministries of interior and health along with the NCDC have agreed to initiate a new unified plan to deal with COVID-19. A new central department is to be established between the two ministries. This department will develop a joint plan for all ports of entry into the country.

Oil & Gas Developments

▪ The HoR has reportedly informed Oil Minister (GNU) Mohammed Aoun to begin appointing a new board of directors for the National Oil Corporation (NOC). This has sparked speculation that the NOC could see a change in leadership.

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© Travel

▪ Libyan Wings has announced a new flight route to the Turkish city of Antalya. Flights will start on 13 July and see two flights a week on Tuesdays and Fridays. ▪ Reports indicate Air Malta has conducted its second recent flight into Mitiga Airport as it looks at the possibility of re-establishing an air route to Libya. ▪ Zliten has begun maintenance on its portion of the coastal road over a distance of 3km. Work will last for four months and will run from the traffic lights on the hotel road to the triangle traffic lights at the eastern entrance of Zliten. ▪ On July 06, Libyan Airlines resumed domestic flights to Sabha airport after years of suspension. Flights are running from Mitiga with plans to start flights from Benina Airport in Benghazi as well as international flights.

Health

▪ Bani Walid Hospital has treated five children and an elderly man for scorpion bites. Local reports claim scorpion bites are on the rise as temperatures have regularly risen above 43 degrees. Threat Matrix

Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime Kidnap

Tripolitania High High High High High

Tripoli High High High-Extreme High High

Cyrenaica High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate-High

Benghazi High Moderate-High Moderate High High

Fezzan High High High-Extreme High High

Sabha High High High High-Extreme High-Extreme

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

Key Dates

Date Occasion Comment

GNU expected to present a revised budget to the July 12, 2021 HoR again

July 19, 2021 Day of Arafah Public Holiday

July 20 – 22, 2021 Eid al-Adha Public Holiday

December 24, 2021 Libyan elections

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© Assessment

Political Developments

GNU fails to secure its budget from the HoR for a fifth time On July 05, the HoR began its fifth session to review the draft State Budget Act 2021. The session in Tobruk was attended by Prime Minister (GNU) Dbeibah along with some GNU ministers following their failure to attend discussions the week before. The first day reportedly focused on what the GNU had done since it began its term and aimed to hold the government to account instead of discussions over the budget. This included discussions on the electricity issue, the selection of the Minister of Defense, and the migration of specific bodies and institutions to Benghazi. The day concluded without the review of the budget. Discussions resumed on July 06 with a meeting between the finance committee and the finance minister (GNU), Khalid Al-Mubarak, however the budget remains unapproved with further amendments requested by the HoR along with a further reduction in the overall figure.

CBL: Deloitte hand over independent audit report A ceremony took place in Tripoli on July 08 to hand over Deloitte International’s independent audit report on the Central Bank of Libya (CBL). The report was requested by the previous prime minister, Fayez Serraj in July 2018 and was endorsed by UN Resolution 2434 in September 2018. The project was launched in August 2020 and the final report comes after a preliminary review, held between April 02 - 05.

HoR: Saleh meets with Kubis in Qubbah Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh met with UN Envoy Jan Kubis in Qubbah on July 07 to discuss developments in the Libyan political process. Saleh stated that the HoR had begun preparing a law for direct presidential elections and although he again voiced his support for the elections, accusations he is trying to delay them continue.

Military Developments

Haddad to conduct a five-day visit to Moscow The Chief of Staff (western forces), Mohamed al-Haddad travelled to Moscow on July 10 for a five-day visit. This is his second visit after traveling with Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah in April. He is however expected to meet with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and his deputy, Alexander Fomin.

Security Developments

LNA: 128 Battalion attacked near Sawknah On July 08, armed men launched a dawn attack on the 128 Battalion (LNA) Headquarters north of Sawknah. The attackers were mobile in four armed vehicles with some reports claiming they suffered an unknown number of casualties with LNA in pursuit after the attack was repelled. The LNA did not articulate who was responsible but referred to them as “terrorists.” Ahmed Mismari, spokesman for the LNA stated that it was a "clear, frank and deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the armed confrontation and obstructing the ceasefire.”

Coronavirus

This week has seen a notable change in the COVID-19 situation in Libya. Although cases have been

increasing slightly over the past few months, the virus had remained largely under control and was

having a minimal impact on day-to-day life. Over this last week, cases have increased significantly with

reports indicating this is due to the Delta variant. Cases went from 2094 last week to 9767 this week,

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© an increase of 7,673 cases. As cases increased, the GNU took the decision to close the border with Tunisia which has seen a notable rise in cases due to the Delta variant.

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Cases

Graph: Weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Libya with seven day moving average Regional Assessment

Tripolitania Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 05 12:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Khartoum Street: An armed group member was murdered by another armed group in Khartoum Street. Shops closed in the area as tensions escalated. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 05 16:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Al-Fassi: Abdulrazzak Bufa, a member of the SSA, was killed during a SAF exchange with members of the Othman Al-Lahab (CID) group, following an earlier murder in Khartoum Street. A civilian, Hussam Abu Janah, was also killed in the crossfire. This was originally reported as a murder on July 06. ▪ SAF - Jul 05 19:30, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Mutammar: A drive-by shooting resulted in the death of a male. ▪ Kidnap - Jul 05 23:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Zawiyah: Six members of an armed group aligned with the SSA were kidnapped by the Othman Al-Lahab armed group in retaliation for the murder of an armed group member in Khartoum Street. ▪ Mass Grave - Jul 06, Al-Murqub Province, Tarhunah: The General Authority for Search and Identification has discovered another mass grave in an agricultural area five kilometres from Tarhunah. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 06 01:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Mutammar: Clashes involving medium weapons erupted in the Mutammar area, west of Ajaylat. The clashes came after a local national was killed in a drive-by shooting. A kidnapping was also reported in the area at a similar time however it is unclear if it was connected. ▪ Kidnap - Jul 06 01:30, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Mutammar: An individual on their way home was kidnapped by unidentified perpetrators. A ransom of 80,000 LYD was reportedly demanded.

▪ Troop Movements - Jul 06 05:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Mutammar: Reports indicate that troops aligned with the Western Military Region and SSA mobilised southwest of Ajaylat. The mobilisations came as tensions rose in the area following a drive-by shooting and a subsequent

armed clash.

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© ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 06 12:10, Az Zawiyah Province, Abu Issa: Feras Graf was killed by armed men suspected of belonging to Othman Al Lahab (CID) travelling in an armoured vehicle. Some reports claim Graf had some links to the LIFG. ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 07 20:30, , Ministry of Youths & Sports: An unidentified armed group reportedly forced entry to the Ministry of Youth & Sports. NFDK. ▪ SAF - Jul 08 01:30, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Jinan Attia: Three members of the Shalfouh militia allegedly shot at pedestrians west of Ajaylat. No casualties were reported. ▪ Airstrike - Jul 08 17:30, Misrata Province, Bani Walid: A UAV reportedly targeted a fuel smuggling truck which was heading south between Bani Waled and Ash Shwayrif. ▪ Health - Jul 08 21:00, Tripoli Province, Hadba al-Khadra: A state of emergency has been declared at the Hadba al-Khadra Hospital in Tripoli due to the increase in COVID-19 infections. ▪ Armed Robbery - Jul 08Evening, Tripoli Province, Tripoli: A vehicle was robbed after leaving the Mashir Market (date unconfirmed). Two masked men exited a vehicle in traffic, opened a rear passenger door as well as the boot while brandishing firearms at the occupant(s) before making their way back to the vehicle. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 08Evening, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Jinan Attia: Ahmed Abu Raqeq was killed during an argument at the beach. He was killed by a member of the Majdoub family. ▪ SAFire - Jul 09 01:30, Tripoli Province, Airport Road: Anti-aircraft artillery fire was reported in the area of Airport Road and Hadba. ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 09 06:30, Tripoli Province, Nasser University Road: Reports indicate that SDF stormed a Misratan unit HQ on Nasser University Road. ▪ Troop Movements - Jul 09 10:50, Tripoli Province, Shok Road: Unconfirmed reports claimed that 444 Combat Unit had mobilised around Al Shok Road. ▪ Security Operation - Jul 10 00:30, Al-Jabal al-Gharbi Province, Nasmah: 444 Combat Unit attacked fuel smugglers along the desert road between Bani Waled and Nasmah resulting in a firefight. Two fuel trucks were set on fire during the incident as they tried to escape. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 10 06:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Zuwara: The body of a man in his sixties was found dumped on the road between the prison and the coastal road. The body, which is currently unidentified, shows signs of torture. ▪ Carjacking - Jul 10 10:00, Tripoli Province, Assaeida: A man was shot and killed as he attempted to carry out an armed carjacking. ▪ Kidnap - Jul 10 11:30, Sirte Province, Qasr Abu Hadi: A man was believed to have been kidnapped after his vehicle was found empty and he was missing. ▪ RPG - Jul 10 13:30, Misrata Province, Bani Walid: An RPG shell impacted a property causing damage but no injuries.

Cyrenaica Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Demonstration - Jul 05 12:00, Al-Butnan Province, Tobruk: A protest took place outside the HoR Building as the HoR sat with the GNU to discuss the budget. Protestors called for improved living conditions and increased pensions. Footage also showed some vehicles driving over a Turkish flag near the parliament building. ▪ Accident - Jul 05 23:30, Benghazi Province, Rajma: Reports indicate a short circuit resulted in a fire at the LNA Rajma HQ. Reports claimed it was near to an ammunition store and that the LNA General Command requested two fire trucks from Benina Airport. LNA Spokesman, Ahmed Mismari, later played down the incident stating it was a simple electrical issue which was "not worth mentioning." ▪ Demonstration - Jul 06, Kufra Province, Rebyana: Local women protested the deterioration of health conditions and lack of support in their area. This follows a similar protest on June 11 in front of the village hospital where protestors stated that despite nominal upgrades, they were still lacking key services including an ambulance service which results in them having to transport patients to

Kufra. The Minister of Health (GNU) has been called on to intervene. The area, home to around 4,000 people, has reported very poor living conditions for a while now and was suffering from a

three-month power outage in January 2021.

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© ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 08, Benghazi Province, Qubah: The Red Crescent Society branch reported the remains of a person had been found at a farm in the Dahr al-Hamar area, south of Qubah. The body was found by a civilian who was bulldozing parts of his farm. The Red Crescent stated the body was believed to have been buried by a "terrorist group" and were searching for others. ▪ Security Operation - Jul 09, Al- Province, Marj: The Joint Security Room in Marj launched an operation against one of the largest illegal immigration smuggling locations in Marj City. A number of illegal immigrants were freed while a number of human traffickers were arrested. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 09, Benghazi Province, Shebnah: A man stabbed his wife to death before hanging himself. ▪ Demonstration - Jul 09 17:00, Benghazi Province, Tibesti Hotel: A small protest was held calling for a number of things including the holding of the December elections on time, the halt of scrap metal sales to Turkey, the withdrawal of foreign forces, and for the HoR to approve the draft budget. The protest was held under the banner of "no extension." ▪ IDF - Jul 09 17:30, Benghazi Province, Ras Abaydah: Two mortar shells impacted two adjacent residential districts. The second impacted near the Endowments "Awqaf" General Authority Building in Ras Abaydah causing material damage. ▪ Demonstration - Jul 09 19:00, Al-Butnan Province, Tobruk: A protest took place calling for the self- determination of the Barqa region.

Fezzan Region

Significant Incidents ▪ Arrest - Jul 04 22:00, Sabha Province, Tamanhint: The Tariq Bin Ziyad Battalion (LNA) detained five Zliten truck drivers who were reportedly collecting scrap metal which allegedly belonged to an LNA linked individual. On July 07, reports indicate that the men were released following negotiations which reportedly saw a payment of 5,000 LYD per person. The men were detained at Tamanhint Airbase. ▪ Arrest - Jul 06 20:00, Sabha Province, Samnu: Police in Samnu arrested two Janjaweed mercenaries accused of stealing from local farms. They were transferred to the Samnu Police Station. ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 06 21:00, Sabha Province, Samnu: Janjaweed mercenary forces launched an attack on Samnu Police Station and released two of their members who had been arrested earlier. ▪ Military Operation - Jul 07, Sabha Province, Sabha: The LNA has declared Adiri, Sabha, Wadi al- Ajal, Wadi al-Shati and Zallaf as a military operational area with patrols deployed to "prevent smuggling and arrest outlaws." This could be designed to re-dominate the ground in the area. ▪ Crime - Jul 07 21:00, Wadi Al-Hayaa Province, Germa: Electricity cables which support El Feel were targeted by thieves. Reports allege that the thieves were a gang in two Hyundai vehicles with tinted windows and no license plates. ▪ SAF - Jul 07 21:30, Wadi Al-Hayaa Province, Germa: The Obari CID confronted thieves stealing electricity cable supplying El Feel resulting in a SAF exchange. ▪ Armed Attack - Jul 08 06:00, Al-Jufra Province, Sawknah: On July 08, armed men launched a dawn attack on the 128 Battalion (LNA) Headquarters north of Sawknah. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 10 02:00, Murzuq Province, Murzuq: A Libyan national was murdered by a Chadian national. ▪ Arson - Jul 10 02:30, Murzuq Province, Murzuq: An arson attack was conducted against the home of a Chadian national who had murdered a Libyan national earlier in the day. The perpetrators brother was also reportedly murdered in Miski in Murzuq in retaliation for the original murder. ▪ Armed Clash - Jul 10 20:30, Sabha Province, Hijarah: An armed clash involving members of the Hasawna tribe resulted in the death of a child caught in the crossfire. ▪ Murder/ Execution - Jul 10, Sabha Province, Sabha: Muftah Raheel was murdered during an argument in the Thanawia area.

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© Offshore

▪ Rescue - Jul 05 22:30, Libyan Territorial Waters, Undetermined Territorial West: The FEZZAN rescued 93 African nationals after a distress call was received from a migrant vessel. The migrants were disembarked at Tripoli Navy Base. ▪ Rescue - Jul 06 23:30, Libyan Territorial Waters, Undetermined Territorial West: The FEZZAN coastguard vessel rescued 16 migrants after receiving a distress call. The migrants were disembarked at Tripoli Naval Base. ▪ Rescue - Jul 09 00:30, Libyan Territorial Waters, Undetermined Territorial West: The FEZZAN coastguard vessel rescued 31 migrants after receiving a distress call. The migrants were disembarked at Tripoli Naval Base.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader's own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report

should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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© Acronym List

AQ - Al-Qaeda BAM – Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Misratan-led) BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) CBL – Central Bank of Libya CNI – Critical National Infrastructure DACOCT - Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Organized Crime and Terrorism DDR - Disarmament, demobilising and reintegration DF – Direct Fire DPF – Derna Protection Force (an amalgamation of all militias in Derna, including the MSCD) GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya GMMR – Great Man-made River GNA – Government of National Accord (2016) GNC – General National Congress (2012) GNU – Government of National Unity (2021) GTUC - Greater Tripoli Union Council (Tripoli militias and others, established in June 2020) HNEC – High National Elections Commission HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk-based) IDF – Indirect Fire (mortars/rockets) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IED - Improvised Explosive Device IOC - International Oil Company IS - Islamic State LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA – Libyan National Army LNG – Libyan National Guard LPA – Libyan Political Agreement (2015) LPDF - Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (2020) LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice MoO - Ministry of Oil MoT - Ministry of Transportation MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned) NFDK - No Further Details Known NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation (aid/charity) NOC – National Oil Company NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC) NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report PC – Presidency Council (GNA) PG – Presidential Guard PFG- Petroleum Facilities Guard RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi RTA - Road Traffic Accident SAF - Small Arms Fire SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) SDF – Rada Deterrence Force/ Special Deterrence Force/ Rada Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck

TPF – Tripoli Protection Force (TRB, Nawasi 8 Force, Bab Tajoura Brigade and Ghneiwa umbrella group, established in December 2018)

UXO - Unexploded Ordnance

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