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THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM Ilasa COLLABORA'tive PROCEEDINGS SERIES IIASA COLLABORATIVE PROCEEDINGS SERIES THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM IlASA COLLABORA'TIVE PROCEEDINGS SERIES CP-81-S1 LARGE-SCALE LINEAR PROGRAMMING Proceedings of a I IASA Workshop, 2-6 June 1980 G.B. Dantzig, M.A.H. Dempster, and M.J. Kallio, Editon CP-81 -S2 THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM: Transportation, Railway, Environmental, Regional, and National Development Issues A. Straszak, Editor THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM Transportation, Railway, Environmental, Regional, and National Development Issues A. Straszak, Editor INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Laxenburg, Austria 1981 lnternational Standard Book Number 3-7045-0011-9 Collaborative papers in this Special series sometimes report work done atthe International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and sometimes work done elsewhere. They are reviewed at IIASA, but receive only limited external review, and are issued after limited editorial attention. The views or opinions they express do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Copyright 0 1981 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. IIASA PUBLICATIONS ON LARGE-SCA.LE.DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS Hans Knop, Editor, Tl?e Tennessee VaZZzy A.d~hOPity Ez?erience: Proceedings of the First Conference on Case Studies of Large Scale Planning Projects, Volumes 1 and 2, CP-76-2, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976. Hans Knop, Editor, The Tennessee Valley duthor<ty: A Field Study, RR-79-2, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, June 1979. Hans Knop, Editor, The 3ratsk-Ilimsk rehtotiul Frcdtcctia Complc: Pro- ceedings of the Second IIASA Conference on Case Studies of Large-Scale Planning Projects, CP-77-3, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, June 1977. Hans Knop and A. Straszak, Editors, The BmtsL-Ilimsk -?errizoric3 -3-0- duction i7ompZer: A Field Study Report, RR-78-2, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, May 1978. Andrze j Straszak and Robert Tuch, Editors, Tne Shinitansen .?{ah-3eod .?ail i?erirk of Jean: Proceedinqs of an IIASA Conference , June 27-30, 1977. Pergamon, Oxford, England, 1980. Andrze j Straszak, Editor, The Shinkansen ?ropam: -%sportaticn, ZaiZmj, ?zvimrunentaZ, R'egional, and !Jaational Deve2or;rnent Issues, CP-8 1 -S2 , IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 1981. Y. Sawaragi and A. Straszak, Editors, The Kinki T?ceproc! .?epior.a! 3eveZo~ent.?rcpm: Status Report and Proceedinqs of a IIASA Workshop, June 1978, CP-81-S5, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 1981. PREFACE During the period 1974-1979, multidisciplinary teams of sci- entists from the International Institute for Applied Systems Ana- lysis (IIASA) examined four large-scale development programs: the Tennessee Valley Authority, a regional development program launched in 1934 by the government of the United Stat.es of America: the Bratsk-Ilimsk Territorial Production Complex, a regional develop- ment program launched in 1952 by the government of the USSR; the Shinkansen Program in Japan, which began in 1969; and the Kinki Integrated Regional Development Program, on which research work began in Japan in 1973. The first two of these studies have al- ready been reported on [for the TVA study, see Knop (1976), and Knop (1979), and for the BITPC study, see Knop (1977) and Knop and Straszak (1978)l; and the extensive factual basis for the Shinkansen study has also been published [see Straszak and Tuch 1980) 1. This volume discusses the issues that arose in the stuly of the Shinkansen Program in transportation, railway, environmental, regional, and national development. A final volume in this series on the work in the Kinki region of Japan is in preparation. The investigation of the Shinkansen Program was supported and assisted by The Japan Committee for IIASA; the IIASA team is particularly grateful to Professors H. drisawa, K. Miyasawa, and Y. Suzuki, Doctor S. Tamura, and A. Yamada. The extensive co- operation of the Japanese National Railways made the study pos- sible: Dr. M. NishiCa and the personnel of the JNR staff was especially appreciated. The Shinkansen study used an approach developed within IIASA for the TVA and Bratsk-Ilimsk case studies, together with the ap- proach elaborated by David Fischer (USA) and used by him in studies dealing with Canadian arctic and North Sea oil development. The initial procedure of analysis, originated by Hans Knop (GDR) was then combined with extensions proposed by other participating scholars, so that an overall approach evolved, whose implementa- tion was made possible through formation of an interdisciplinary East-West team of researchers at IIASA. The field study team consisted of these persons: Professor A. Straszak (Poland) Professor H. Knop (GDRI Professor D. Fischer (USA) Professor M. Albegov (USSR) Dr. S. Ikeda (Japan) Dr. D. von Winterfeldt (FRG) Professor A. van Bilderbeeck (Netherlands) Professor C. Law (Canada) Mr. J. Harmon (USA Department of Transportation) Mr. J. Owsinski (Poland) Mr. R. Tuch (USA) Professor H. Strobe1 (GDR) and Dr. R. Genser (Austria) joined the study group in preparing this volume. They had visited Japan earlier and played a key role in the conference-with which the work began. A. Straszak CONTENTS Page PART I: THE APPROACH 1 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION (A. Straszak) 3 2. MAIN FEATURES OF THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM (A. Straszak) 5 Appendix 2 2 3. THE FRAMEWORK OF ANALYSIS (A. Straszak) References PART 11: SUBSYSTEMS ANALYSIS 4. THE SHINKANSEN AND TRANSPORTATION (H. Strobel, A. Straszak) 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The Pre-Shinkansen Age 4.2.1 Historical Background 4.2.2 Demand Factors 1.2.2.1 Economic Growth 4.2.2.2 Population 4.2.2.3 Car Ownership and Modal Split 4.2.3 Supply Factors 4.2.3.1 The Status of the Road Transportation System 4.2.3.2 Status of the Air Traffic System 4.2.3.3 Suboly Imnacts 4.2.4 Actors 4.2.4.1 Travelers and Residents 4.2.3.2 Transportation Companies and Government Actors 4.2.4.3 International Actors 4.2.5 Findings 4.3 The First Decade of the Shinkansen Age 4.3.1 Supply-Demand Inter-Relations 3.3.1.1 Rail Transport Demand Impacts 4.3.1.2 Modal-Split Impacts 4.3.2 Supply Factors and Impacts 4.3.2.1 Growth of the Individual Transport Systems 4.3.2.2 Trip Time Impacts 4.3.2.3 Safety Impacts 4.3.2.4 Cost Aspects 4.3.2.5 Energy Consumptlon 4.3.2.6 Environmental Impacts 4.3.2.7 Land Productivity and Further Impacts 4.3.3 Impacts on Actors 4.3.4 Findings 4.4 The Future of the Shinkansen Program 4.4.1 Demand Issues 4.4.1.1 Economic Factors 4.4.1.2 Population Factors 4.1.2 Supply Issues 4.4.2.1 Energy Factors 4.4.2.2 New Technology Options 4.4.3 Actors Issues References 5. THE SHINKANSEN AND RAILWAY ISSUES IR. Genser, A. Straszak) 5.1 Main Features of Railway Development in Japan 5.1.1 Situation Prior to the Construction of the Tokaido Shinkansen 5.1.2 The Situation after the Tokaido Shinkansen was Built 5.1 .3 The Present Situation 5.2 Hain Actors Involved in Railway Development and Railway Policy in Japan 5.~2.1 National Government 5.2.2 zapanese National Railways (JNR) 5.2.3 Japan Railway Construction Corporation (JRCC 3.2.4 Industries Working for Railways 5.2.5 Regional and Local Authorities 5.2.6 Citizen Groups 5.3 Main Issues 5.3.1 Speed 5.3.2 Safecy 5.3.3 Reliability 5.3.4 Ergonomics, Education, and Training 5.3.5 Comfort 5.3.6 Accessibility 5.3.7 Frequency of Service 5.3.8 Profitability 5.3.9 computerization and Automation 5.3.10 Maintenance 5.3.11 Impact on other railways 5.4 Freight Transport References 6. THE SHINKANSEN AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES (D. Fischer, D.v. Winterfeldt, S. Ikeda) 208 6.1 Introduction 208 6.1.1 Envircnmental Expectations in Past Decades 208 6.1.2 Main Causes of Environmental Disruption in Japan 6.1.3 The Role of the Public Sector in Economic Activities 6.1.4 The New CNDP and Transportation Network Policy 6.1.5 Establishment of Environmental Legislation and Administration 6.2 The Question of the Public Interest 6.3 Environmental Actors in Relation to the Shinkansen 6.3.1 Note on the Case of the Tohoku Shin- kansen Line (Under Construction) 6.4 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) 6.4.1 Environmental Impacts Associated with the Shinkansen 6.4.2 Implementation of an EIA System 6.4.3 Present Approach to Assessing Shinkansen Impacts 6.4.4 Public Participation 6.4.5 Issues Affecting EIA 6.4.6 Proposed EIA System 6.4.7 Contents of a Report of ~nvironment Impact Assessment for Shiqkansen 6.5 Introduction to the Problem of Noise Pollution Control for Shinkansen Trains 6.6 The Elements of the Noise Pollution Control Problem: Actors, Their Objectives and Alternatives 6.6.1 Regulatory Actors, Objectives, and Alternatives 6.6.2 Development Actors, Objectives, and Alternatives 6.6.3 Impactee Actors, Objectives, and Alternatives 6.7 The Decision Process of the Environment Agency to Set Noise Standards 6.7.1 Noise Evaluation Criteria Used in the Standard Settinq Process 6.8 The Decision Process of the Nagoya Associa- tion to Combat Shinkansen Yoise 6.9 Discussion and Evaluation: Toward Modeling Standard-Setting Decisions References 7. THE SHINKANSEN AND REGIONAL ISSUES (M. Albegov, J. Owsinski, A. Straszak) 7.1 The Main Features of Regional Development in Japan 7.1.1 The Situation Prior to the Construction of the Tokaido Shinkansen 7.1.2 The Situation After the Construction of the Tokaido Shinkansen 333 7.1.3 The Present Situation 344 7.2 Main Actors Involved in Regional Development 347 7.2.1 National Government 349 7.2.2 Public Corporations 3 5 1 7.2.3 Private Sector of the Economy 356 7.2.4 Local Governments 358 7.2.5 Citizens 360 7.3 Issues 36 1 7.3.1 National vs.
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