East Lindsey Coastal Zone Skills Audit

EAST LINDSEY COASTAL ZONE SKILLS AUDIT

FINAL REPORT

Terence Hogarth, David Owen, Anne Green, Mark Samuel, Maria de Hoyos and Lynn Gambin

Institute for Employment Research (in collaboration with IFF Research)

University of Warwick Coventry UK-CV4 7AL Tel: +44 24 76 52 44 20 Fax: +44 24 76 52 42 41 E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected]

June 2010 Contents Executive Summary ...... x

1. Introduction ...... 1

1.1 The Aims of the Study ...... 1 1.2 Method ...... 2

1.3 East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone ...... 2 1.4 Structure of the Report ...... 3 2. Skills Investments – the Special Case of Rural, Peripheral and Coastal Areas ...... 4

2.1 Stimulating Skill Demand ...... 4

2.2 The Low Skill Equilibrium? ...... 5 2.3 Local Economic Development and Service Provision in Rural areas and Seaside Towns ...... 7 2.4 The Labour Market, Skills and Local Economic Development in Lincolnshire and East Lindsey ...... 10 2.5 Conclusion ...... 14 3. The Demand for Labour and Skills in the Coastal Zone: Medium Term Projections ...... 16

3.1 Introduction ...... 16

3.2 The National and Regional Economy ...... 16 3.3 Demographic Change along the East Lindsey Coastal Zone ...... 18 3.4 Overall Employment Trends ...... 19

3.5 The Changing Structure of Employment ...... 21 3.6 Employment by Gender ...... 22 3.7 Employment by Industry ...... 24

3.8 Employment by Occupation ...... 28 3.9 Conclusion ...... 32 4. Employer and Other Stakeholder Perspectives on the Demand for Labour ...... 35

4.1 Introduction: Background and Objectives ...... 35 4.2 Sample and Methodology ...... 35

4.3 Employer Profile and Business Context ...... 36 4.3.1 Business Context ...... 36 4.3.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of an East Lindsey Coastal Zone Location ...... 37

4.4 Current Conditions ...... 39

4.5 Recruitment Difficulties ...... 42 4.5.1 Hospitality ...... 42

4.5.2 Social Care ...... 43 4.5.3 Engineering ...... 44 4.5.4 Public Sector...... 45

4.6 Training Activity ...... 46 4.6.1 Apprenticeships ...... 46 4.6.2 Training for staff ...... 48

4.7 Training Provision in the East Lindsey Coastal Zone ...... 51 4.7.1 Employer Perceptions of Training Provision in the Coastal Zone ...... 51 4.7.2 Appetite for Further Training in East Lindsey’s Coastal Zone ...... 55

4.8 The Supply Side ...... 57 4.9 Conclusion ...... 58 5: The Supply of Skills in East Lindsey ...... 60

5.1 Introduction ...... 60

5.2 Population Trends and Labour Market Participation ...... 60 5.3 Participation in Training ...... 66 5.4 Training undertaken ...... 74

Subject breakdown ...... 77 Learner Responsive aims ...... 81 5.5 Conclusion ...... 87 Chapter 6: Travel to learn patterns in East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone ...... 88

6.1 Introduction ...... 88

6.2 Location of training ...... 88 6.3 Learner Responsive Training ...... 94 6.4 The geography of travel-to-study for Learner Responsive training ...... 100

6.5 Employer Responsive Ttraining...... 105 6.6 Conclusion ...... 113 7. Pupils’ Aspirations, Career Choices, and Geographical Preferences ...... 115

7.1 Introduction ...... 115

7.2 Job Prefeerences on Exiting Full-time Education ...... 115

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7.3 Importance of Staying-on at School ...... 117 7.4 Pupils’ Travel Preferences ...... 119

7.5 Living and Working in Lincolnshire ...... 122 7.6 Conclusion ...... 123 8. The Barriers and Facilitators to Training in the Coastal Zone ...... 124

8.1 Introduction ...... 124

8.2 Barriers to Training ...... 125 8.2.1 Demand Side ...... 125 8.2.2 The Supply Side ...... 128

8.3 Facilitating Training and Skills Development in Coastal Area ...... 130 8.3.1 Evidence from Other Coastal Areas in England ...... 130 8.3.2 Evidence from Abroad ...... 132

8.4 Conclusion ...... 134 9. Conclusion ...... 136

9.1 The Demand for, and Supply of, Skills in the Coastal Zone...... 136 9.2 Recommendations ...... 139 Annex A: Industrial and Occupational Classifications for Chapter 4 ...... 141

Annex B: Subject of Study – Disaggregated Results from Chapter 5 ...... 143

Annex C: Questionnaire – Survey of Pupils ...... 150

Annex D: Activities in Other Coastal Areas ...... 156

Tables Table 3.1: Economy, Employment, and Recession ...... 17

Table 3.2 Projections of Demographic Change along the Coastal Zone to 2020 (000s) ...... 19 Table 3.3 Changing Structure of Employment: percentage of people in full-time, part-time, and self-employment ...... 21

Table 3.4 Changing Structure of Employment by Gender: percentage of men and women in full- time, part-time, and self-employment ...... 23 Table 3.5 Industrial Structure of Employment, 1998-2022 ...... 26

Table 3.6 Replacement Demands 2008-2017 (rounded) ...... 31 Table 4.1: Completed interviews by industry sector and organisation size ...... 35 Table 5.1: Economic activity and employment rates by age and gender, East Lindsey 2008 ...... 61

Table 5.2: East Lindsey - occupational breakdown of males and females, 2005-8 (percentage of all in employment) ...... 62 Table 5.3: Highest qualification level of the population of East Lindsey, 2008 (percentage of sub- group population) ...... 63 Table 5.4: Educational performance in East Lindsey, 2007/8 ...... 65 Table 5.5: East Lindsey – participation in job-related training, 2008 ...... 66

Table 5.6: Percentage of ward population participating in training, 2008/9 ...... 73 Table 5.7: Learning in East Lindsey by age and gender, 2008/9 ...... 75 Table 5.8: Learning in East Lindsey by age and gender, 2008/9 ...... 76

Table 5.9: East Lindsey – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student ...... 78 Table 5.10: Coastal Action Zone – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student ...... 79 Table 5.11: East Lindsey and CAZ compared with England and rural areas. Subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student ...... 80

Table 5.12: LR training undertaken in East Lindsey, 2008/9 by NVQ level ...... 82 Table 5.13: LR training undertaken in the Coastal Action Zone, 2008/9 by NVQ level ...... 83 Table 5.14: Hours of training undertaken in East Lindsey, 2008/9 by NVQ level ...... 84

Table 5.15: Hours of training undertaken in the Coastal Action Zone, 2008/9 by NVQ level ...... 85 Table 5.16: Outcomes of training undertaken in East Lindsey, 2008/9...... 86 Table 6.1: Active training providers based in East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 88

Table 6.2: Breakdown of training activity by East Lindsey residents (number of aims) ...... 89

Table 6.3: Travel to training for East Lindsey residents, 2008/9 ...... 91 Table 6.4: England - median distance to learn by urban and rural classification of district and type of training (Kilometres) ...... 91 Table 6.5: England and East Lindsey compared - median distance to learn by urban and rural classification of the Output Area in which the learner lives and type of training (Kilometres) ...... 92

Table 6.6: LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 94 Table 6.7: Profile of LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 94 Table 6.8: Percentage share of type of training provider in LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 95 Table 6.9: Total hours of LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 95 Table 6.10: Mean hours of LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 96

Table 6.11: Largest providers of LR training to East Lindsey residents, 2008/9 ...... 97 Table 6.12: Types of qualification studied for in largest providers of LR training (percent of total) ... 98 Table 6.13: Journey-to-study by type of student and course: Learner Responsive training undertaken by East Lindsey residents 2008/9...... 104 Table 6.14: Journey-to-study by type of student and course: Learner Responsive training undertaken by Coastal Action Zone residents 2008/9 ...... 105

Table 6.15: Profile of Employer Responsive training provision in East Lindsey, 2008/9 ...... 106 Table 6.16: East Lindsey: subject breakdown of Employer Responsive training by age and gender 2008/9 (percentages of age and gender group) ...... 107

Table 6.17: East Lindsey residents – distance travelled to Employer Responsive training 2008/9. ... 112 Table 6.18: Coastal Action Zone residents – distance travelled to Employer Responsive training 2008/9...... 113

Table 7.1: Pupils’ Career Preferences by Parents’ Jobs (row percentages) ...... 117 Table 7.2a: Importance of Staying-on at School to Pursue Preferred Career (row %) ...... 118 Table 7.2b: Importance of Undertaking an Apprenticeship to Pursue Preferred Career (row %) .. 118

Table 7.3 Whether Pupils Wanted to Stay-on at School (row %) ...... 119 Table 7.4 Likelihood of Staying on at School (row %) ...... 119 Table 7.5: Locations willing to travel to study (number of pupils) ...... 121

Table 7.6 The Importance of Staying in Lincolnshire by Career Preference (row %) ...... 123 Table 8.1: Barriers to Training in Sparsely Populated Areas ...... 130 Table A.1: Industrial Classification for Presenting Sectors in IER Forecasts ...... 141

Table A.2: Occupational Classification used in IER Forecasts ...... 142

Table B.1: East Lindsey – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (disaggregated version of Table 5.9) ...... 143

Table B.2: Coastal Action Zone – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (disaggregated version of Table 5.10) ...... 146 Table B.3: East Lindsey and CAZ compared with England and rural areas. Subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (disaggregated version of Table 5.11)...... 148 Table D.1 Opportunities and challenges for Devon 2008-2018...... 158

Table D.1 (continued): Opportunities and challenges for Devon 2008-2018...... 159 Table D.2 Themes and objectives developed to achieve vision for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly ...... 162

Table D.3 Priorities established in relation to the four strategic objectives ...... 164

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Figures Figure 1.1: East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone ...... 3

Figure 2.1 Tight Labour Markets: Vicious Spiral ...... 6 Figure 3.1: Projections of Output Growth in the East Midlands and UK to 2020 ...... 18 Figure 3.2 Population, Employment, and Unemployment to 2020 ...... 20

Figure 3.3 Comparative Employment Trends to 2020 ...... 20 Figure 3.4 Male and Female Employment along the Coast Zone to 2020 ...... 22 Figure 3.5 Changing Structure of Employment by Gender along the East Lindsey Coastal Zone, 2008-2017 ...... 24 Figure 3.6 Structure of Employment in the Coastal Zone, 2008 ...... 25 Figure 3.7 Employment by Occupation in the Coastal Zone, 2008 ...... 28

Figure 3.8 Detailed Occupational Structure of the Coastal Zone ...... 29 Figure 3.9 Occupational Change in the Coastal Zone ...... 30 Figure 5.1: Population trends in East Lindsey from 1981 to 2008 ...... 61

Figure 5.2 Percentage of working age population qualified to a given level or above 2008: East Lindsey compared with the East Midlands and Great Britain ...... 64 Figure 5.3: Participation by age and gender in East Lindsey ...... 67

Figure 5.4: Participation by age and gender in the Coastal Action Zone ...... 68 Figure 5.5: Participation by age and gender in England as a whole ...... 69 Figure 5.6: Participation by age and gender in areas similar to East Lindsey ...... 69

Figure 5.7: Participation by age and gender in North Norfolk ...... 70 Figure 5.8: Male learning participation rates by level of the DEFRA urban-rural classification ...... 71 Figure 5.9: Female learning participation rates by level of the DEFRA urban-rural classification ...... 71

Figure 5.10: Male ward-level participation rates ...... 72 Figure 5.11: Female ward-level participation rates ...... 72 Figure 6.1: Geographical distribution of Employer Responsive training aims for East Lindsey residents ...... 90 Figure 6.2: Geographical distribution of Learner Responsive training aims for East Lindsey residents ...... 90

Figure 6.3: Geographical distribution of Adult Supported Learning aims for East Lindsey residents .. 90 Figure 6.4: DfT estimates of time taken to travel (in minutes) to Further Education college by public transport or walking ...... 93

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Figure 6.5: Types of qualifications which courses lead to ...... 99 Figure 6.6: Males – LR training ...... 101

Figure 6.7: Females – LR training ...... 101 Figure 6.8: Aged 16 to 18 training...... 101 Figure 6.9: Aged 19 to 24 training...... 101

Figure 6.10: Aged 25 and over LR training ...... 102 Figure 6.11: NVQ level 1 LR training ...... 102 Figure 6.12: NVQ level 2 LR training ...... 102

Figure 6.13: NVQ level 3 LR training ...... 102 Figure 6.14: Males – ER training ...... 109 Figure 6.15: Females – ER training ...... 109

Figure 6.16: Aged 16 to 18 – ER training ...... 109 Figure 6.17: aged 19 to 24 – ER training ...... 109 Figure 6.18: Aged 25 and over – ER training ...... 110

Figure 6.19: NVQ Level 1 – ER training ...... 110 Figure 6.20: NVQ Level 2 – ER training ...... 110 Figure 6.21: NVQ Level 3 – ER training ...... 111

Figure 6.22: NVQ Level 4 – ER training ...... 111 Figure 7.1 Occupations in which Pupils would like to Work in the Future ...... 116 Figure 7.2 Reasons for Choosing Selected Career ...... 117

Figure 7.3 Willingness to Travel to Learn ...... 120 Figure 7.4: Reasons for Studying Some Distance from Home ...... 122 Figure 8.1 Differences in Employer Training Costs between Areas Similar to the Coastal Zone and Other Areas ...... 128

Executive Summary

The East Lindsey Coastal Zone The economic development challenges which face peripheral rural areas such as the East Lindsey Coastal Zone are often unique in character. In East Lindsey’s case it is, amongst other things, the sparse population and the absence of a dominant urban centre. Skegness, the largest settlement, is a small market town which accounts for approximately 20,000 of the Coastal Zone’s total population of around 77,000.

The Study This skills audit provides an account of:  the current and future demand for skills and training in the Coastal Zone;  the current state of supply of skills and training;

 the extent to which there is an imbalance between demand and supply;  the barriers and facilitators to more skills development and training and how these might be overcome;

 recommendations for developing further the skills base of the Coastal Zone’s economy. A multi-faceted research design was adopted: i. a literature review of the barriers and facilitators of training and skills development in rural, peripheral areas; ii. a statistical review and a series of employment projections for the East Midlands, Lincolnshire, East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone based on the IER/CE Local Economic Forecasting Model; iii. an analysis of travel to learn distances in the Coastal Zone; iv. interviews with employers in engineering, hospitality, social care, and the public sector to inquire into their demand for skills and training and the extent to which this has been satisfied, plus an employer focus group in Skegness; v. liaison with key policy stakeholders whose remit includes the Coastal Zone;

Current and Future Demand for Labour and Skills Between 2008 and 2017 the population in the Coastal Zone is projected to grow by around seven thousand people and to increase by another four thousand people by 2022. Much of the projected population growth is accounted for by those aged 65 years or over. Following the 2008/09 recession, employment levels are projected to fall to their mid-1980s level and recover gradually over the medium-term but even by the end of the forecast period in 2020 employment levels will not have recovered the historical high point they achieved in the mid 2000s. Economic activity rates are expected to grow over the forecast period and it is anticipated that unemployment levels will be relatively high compared to the recent past.

Over the period to 2017 the two sectors which are projected to grow with respect to the share of employment they account for are: (i) distribution, hotels and catering; and (ii) the public sector (including local government, and health and social care). Around about a third of all public sector employment is in health and social care and this percentage is expected to increase over the medium-to long-term in the Coastal Zone.

Of course, the level of employment in the public sector is uncertain given the intention to rein in public expenditure over the coming years. But it needs to be borne in mind that many of the functions carried out by public sector organisations will still need to be delivered at a local level.

Occupation provides a proxy, albeit imperfect, measure of skill demand. The current occupational structure of employment in the Coastal Zone, compared with Lincolnshire, the East Midlands, and the UK, is skewed towards less skilled occupations (elementary, sales, and personal service jobs). Managers, professionals, and administrative jobs are under-represented compared to the county, region, or the UK. Looking to the future it is projected that sales and personal service occupations are most likely to grow in employment over the medium-term, with a contraction in the number of people employed in elementary occupations, machine operatives, and skilled trades. Replacement demands – which factor in the number of people needed to replace individuals who leave an occupation for a variety of reasons, including retirement - show that by 2017 there will be around 7,000 job openings as a result of new jobs being created (approximately 250) and replacing people who have left an occupation for whatever reason (6¾ thousand). These jobs are spread across the occupational structure though many will be in personal care occupations.

Skills Supply and Participation in Training Population has been concentrated in the older ages and there is relative under-representation relative to the national average of people aged from 25 to 39. The younger population is now increasing, but educational performance at the age of 14 years is poorer than average. Educational achievement, however, improves with age, with GCE A-level performance better than the national average. The working age population of East Lindsey has a smaller percentage qualified above NVQ 3 level as the national average, which is probably a reflection of the large number of people aged over 50 (given that older people are less likely to have their skills certified than younger people). Economic activity and employment rates are above the British average. Except for people aged in their twenties, rates of participation in learning in East Lindsey (as measured using data from the Individual Learner Record) are slightly below the average for England and similar rural areas. Participation in learning is higher for women than men. East Lindsey is distinctive compared with other rural areas in having a lower rate of participation in learning amongst men, particularly in the 15-19 years age range. This perhaps points to a starker divide in East Lindsey than in some comparable areas between those who follow academic routes post-16 and those who do not. Participation in learning declines continuously with age in East Lindsey, in contrast to both the England average and other coastal areas with large retired populations in which participation rates increase after the age of 50. Participation rates tend to be higher in the towns of the district than the rural areas. xi

Most commonly, people study on courses leading to NVQ level 1 and 2 qualifications, with men more likely to study for NVQ Level 1 than women. The most common subjects studied are in the leisure and health and social care sectors and for business-related skills. People were more likely to study for NVQ Level 2 qualifications and for Apprenticeships than in England as a whole. Students were less likely than the England average to study on courses concerned with science, mathematics, technology or agriculture. One inference to be drawn from the pattern of qualifications and learning participation is that the population continues to respond to the relatively lower skilled employment opportunities available by undertaking less training, at a lower level of qualifications.

Travel to Learn Where people go to learn varies dramatically according to the type of learning they are engaged in. People on Adult Supported Learning courses only have to travel six kilometres on average to their place of learning, and for over two-thirds of them, this is located within East Lindsey. For people engaged on Employer Responsive training, just under two-fifths have to travel outside East Lindsey for training and their average journey is 7.5 kilometres. People living in the Coastal Zone are more likely to train within East Lindsey, and they do not have to travel as far as for the average East Lindsey resident – 5.9 kilometres on average. Three-quarters of people engaged in Learner Responsive training have to travel outside East Lindsey to receive training, travelling on average 21.8 kilometres. Only two-thirds of learners living in the Coastal Action Zone had to travel outside the district for training, and their median travel-to-learn journey was slightly shorter than the district average, at 20.4 kilometres. Adult Supported Learning takes place in most of the towns of the district, though there appear to be more opportunities in the eastern areas than the south-west, perhaps accounting for travel to Boston for learning. Employer Responsive training occurs at a large number of locations across the district, but substantial numbers go to the Lincoln, Grimsby and Boston areas for training. The pattern is most extreme for Learner Responsive training, most of which appears to occur in Grimsby, Lincoln, Grantham and Boston. While there are a large number of small flows, the map of travel to Learner Responsive training shows a striking pattern of learners from the west of the Coastal Zone travelling to Lincoln, those in the north and east going to Grimsby and those living in the south and south-east travelling to Boston. Skegness serves a smaller number of local trainees. In contrast, travel-to-learn flows for Employer Responsive training tend to be more localised, with the longer journeys involving smaller numbers of people. Some large short-distance flows are apparent around Skegness. Thus, the opportunity to bring training provision closer to the demand for it is mainly relevant to Learner Responsive training.

Does Skills Supply Meet Skills Demand? Employers in East Lindsey report hard-to-fill vacancies to a similar extent as employers in England as a whole but there appears to be a relatively high level of skill shortages. Wage levels in East Lindsey seem to suggest that skill shortages are less than in other areas because wage rates have risen more

xii slowly than in England. Interviews with employers in the Coastal Zone report that many face skill shortages.

Employers in the hospitality sector tended to have experienced difficulties recruiting staff with the skills they required. Most social care organisations had experienced problems recruiting staff with the necessary skills and experience. Finding qualified nurses was a major problem, particularly for those employers who required specialist skills from their nurses. Around half of the engineering companies interviewed had experienced recruitment problems, covering a range of occupations. There had also been problems finding higher level employees, including mechanical engineers, draughtsmen and programmers. Public sector employers also tended to have experienced difficulties recruiting staff - a dearth of applicants and the few applications received were deemed to be of a poor standard.

Employer Approaches to Training To what extent do employers resort to training as a solution to their recruitment problems? Employer perceptions of training provision in East Lindsey Coastal Zone were generally positive. Employers tended to report that they were satisfied with the level and type of provision currently available but there were a few instances of dissatisfaction with the training provided or where local provision was unable to meet their needs. Most had been able to meet their training needs in the last two years. Some employers reported that they did not have to seek out training because they were regularly contacted by providers operating in the area. Some employers felt that certain sectors were better provided for than others due to the nature of the local economy. The importance of tourism to the local economy meant that there was perceived to be a wealth of hospitality training in the area. Engineering employers, in contrast, reported having to go further afield for training or deliver training themselves because it was not available locally. Employers who were dissatisfied with provision in the area tended to have more specific or specialist training needs.

Transport and travel had a major impact both on employers’ likelihood to train and their choice of provider. Proximity of training location was regarded as important because it saved on travel time and costs, and reduced the amount of time staff needed to be released for to undertake training.

Employers also reported that attending training in East Lindsey could be difficult even in those instances where long distances to venues were not involved due to the relatively poor road infrastructure and lack of public transport.

Some employers opted to provide on-site training – delivered either by internal staff or by an external training provider visiting the employer’s site – in order to circumvent the difficulties associated with travelling to attend external training.

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Employers regarded internal training as cost effective because it cut down on fees and time spent away from the workplace. A few employers also thought that the dynamic between trainer and learner benefited from the two having a pre-existing relationship. Internal training could be tailored to meet the precise needs of an organisation and its staff, and could be delivered in a more flexible manner than off-the-job training. This tailored approach was particularly important for businesses in the engineering sector, many of which work with specialist equipment that existing staff are best placed to instruct on.

Are There Particular Barriers to Training in the Coastal Zone? The former Learning and Skills Council identified a number of factors which might act as a disincentive to providers serving sparsely populated areas. But the evidence, which is admittedly weak, could not demonstrate that the costs of providing training were any higher in rural, sparsely populated areas. There are also system effects to consider. Within a training system which has become increasingly demand-side oriented, providers may be cautious about providing additional provision lest demand is insufficient to recoup the investment that extra provision entails. A more formidable barrier to training taking place is the lack of demand for training. Many organisations in the Coastal Zone are SMEs – which can be a difficult group to engage in training and which have a preference using on-the-job and informal means of learning than through college based courses.

Employers were divided as to whether they would provide more training for their staff if there were more available in the local area. Some felt that additional training provision would be unnecessary, as they were already able to meet their needs. There was, however, some indication that employers currently able to meet their needs would switch to a more local provider if one were available, because this would be more convenient and cost effective. There was some indication of demand for higher level training, linked to the dearth of available training in this area already identified: demand for additional training was highest in areas already identified as weak in terms of current provision, such as the engineering sector. Those who would consider accessing new or additional training tended to report that they would continue to use some or all of their current providers. There appears to be an acceptance amongst many employers that in a rural area you sometimes needed to travel to access training which could not be readily delivered in the workplace. This was, however, conditional upon transport being available.

Recommendations The Diagnosis Outside the public sector, employment in the Coastal Zone is largely dependent upon SMEs. This tends to drive down the demand for skills for a number of well documented reasons.

The occupational structure is also skewed towards less skilled jobs which is a reflection of the limited demand for skills and training. xiv

Whilst growth is projected in the number of managers required over the medium-term, the strongest employment growth is expected to be in relatively low skilled jobs, many of which are concentrated in the retail, social care, and hospitality sectors. The qualitative evidence also suggests that the level of skills demand in these sectors is relatively low with employers concentrated in the relatively low-value segments of their markets.

What Other Coastal Areas Have Done Some other coastal areas face a similar set of problems to East Lindsey’s. It is apparent that many have adopted a policy which makes the most of their natural endowment by pursuing policies to encourage tourism and as a place to retire by the seaside. Other coastal areas have identified the green economy as a potential source of industrial development. Where coastal areas report a uniform problem is in relation to provision of training. Some areas have been able to secure satellite establishments of large further education college located at a distance, but these satellites tend to offer a small number of courses usually tailored to the specific needs of the local economy.

More commonly there is acceptance that people need to travel in order to gain access to training. Often this has been subsidised through the provision of special transport services. The Options

Provision of off-the-job training provides a number of benefits to both employers and learners. It provides a networking opportunity through which good practice can be transferred, and provides learners with an opportunity to network with others.

Training provision in the Coastal Zone has adapted to the current demand for training. Skill shortages are evident across a range of occupations, but it is unlikely that any single provider would be able to cater for these locally.

Employers in the Coastal Zone appear to show a preference for on-the-job training. This stems in part from the high share of SMEs which are reluctant to release people for training. There is no unequivocal evidence from the interviews with the employers that training provision nearby would substantially stimulate the demand for training. On the basis of the evidence above there appears to be little scope for increasing training provision through providing additional facilities in Skegness or elsewhere in the Coastal Zone.

The ‘do nothing’ option, however, has considerable risks attached to it:  skills development will not be stimulated;  good practice might not be disseminated widely;

 some employers will remain locked into a relatively low-skill / low value-added segment of the market;  some individuals will be denied access to training and professional development - especially the informal aspects of getting together with their counterparts in other companies;

 policy makers will be denied an opportunity to influence further the skill development of the area.

On the basis of the evidence above there is a case for developing a business development centre of excellence which will help local employers develop their businesses and assist them to equip themselves with the skills they need. The first step is to assist employers move upmarket and from there to begin to address the skill needs which emerge. Developing local employer networks can be a key ingredient in achieving this goal. Evidence from Outside the UK

Evidence from Australia and Ireland provides pointers as to how employers can be brought together to develop, simultaneously, their business plans and the skills of their workforce. In Australia there has been an on-going concern about the extent to which the market drives down the demand for skills and training, the degree to which the State bears the cost for vocational education and training, and the extent to which skills are effectively utilised in the workplace. The Australian example is interesting because it explicitly recognises the need to develop skills – and encourage their deployment - in relatively low value-added sectors of the economy which generate a high number of jobs. In Australia a number of demonstration projects have been commissioned with seek to gauge the extent to which industry (or region) wide networks of key stakeholders can be used to engage employers in the process of investing and effectively utilising skills. There is evidence that skills ecosystems approaches require a fair degree of public intervention to fund their activities and ensure that they are focused on meeting the needs of the economy.

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1. Introduction 1.1 The Aims of the Study The overarching approach to this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the demand for, and supply of, skills from individuals and employers in East Lindsey, with particular reference to the Coastal Zone. Skills policy over the past ten or so years has been very much demand side driven – and this was given considerable emphasis in the recent Leitch Implementation Plan – but in practice many of the policy levers are supply side ones. If too much emphasis is placed upon the demand side in areas of relatively weak skill demand this can result in the area being locked into a low-skill equilibrium – where the supply of skills matches the demand for them but at a level which is less than optimal. The New Industries New Jobs strategy from the UK Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) places emphasis on the importance of building upon sectors of excellence over the medium-term. While this will benefit areas which already have significant levels of activity in industries such as, for example, pharmaceuticals or advanced manufacturing, those areas which are dependent upon less high value, high skill sectors of employment will need to find alternative means of addressing their future economic prosperity. From a supply side perspective, the key question is whether learners in East Lindsey have the same opportunity to access learning and skills as their counterparts in, say, the East Midlands or England or generally. The demand side might not necessarily require, at the current point in time, skills at level x, in subject y, but this may be where future demand is likely to be concentrated in East Lindsey, the East Midlands or the country generally. The study, therefore, assesses whether the population of East Lindsey, especially young people, have access to the same learning opportunities as people elsewhere (e.g. East Midlands or England).

The study also addresses learners’ access to learning – whether they access this in East Lindsey or travel further afield to elsewhere in Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire, etc. If a critical mass of people in East Lindsey access learning outside the area, there is a need to assess where they are travelling to and from (i.e. distance to learning), and whether there is a critical mass of learning demand which might be accessed within East Lindsey. It is important that the demand side is not ignored. Employers in East Lindsey require a supply of skills which will meet their needs both currently and in the future. The IER / CE Local Area Forecasting Model (LEFM) is able to quantify future demand by skill level taking into account demographic trends (e.g. accounting for the number of people who will retire in a given occupation over the medium-term). This study reports on a set of skill projections for the Coastal Zone, East Lindsey, and Lincolnshire. Benchmark projections are also provided for the East Midlands and the country as a whole.

The analysis described above provides a detailed assessment of the demand for, and supply of, skills in the East Lindsey Coastal Zone both currently and over the medium term (to 2017). This provides a firm foundation for assessing how the needs of learners and employers might be effectively met by the provision of learning and skills. This is a difficult policy area. Smaller training providers often struggle to provide a breadth of training and are often better suited to provision of a narrow range

1 of subjects, but provision by a small number of large providers of training raises issues about where provision should be located. Some counties have large further education providers with centres distributed over a wide area with a peripatetic team of teachers, and trainers. This is an issue which the study will need to address. 1.2 Method A multifaceted approach has been taken based on: i. an analysis of the research literature with reference to: (a) increasing the demand for skills from employers; and (b) the particular problems faced by rural areas; ii. projections of future demand for skills in the Coastal Zone derived from the Local Employment Forecasting Model – which has been produced for this study – compared with the situation in Lincolnshire the East Midlands, and England; iii. a series of face-to-face interviews with key employers in the Coastal Zone in the following sectors: engineering, social care, hospitality, and the public sector. A focus group was also held in Skegness with key employers and stakeholders which was hosted by Boston College; iv. a series of interviews with key stakeholders in the various agencies and institutions responsible for either skills demand or skills supply in the Coastal Zone; v. a survey of Year 10 pupils in three secondary schools in East Lindsey. 1.3 East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone Before going any further it is necessary to provide a definition of East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone so that the reader has a clear understanding of the area under analysis.

East Lindsey is located on the eastern edge of Lincolnshire and the East Midlands region, and is the fifth largest local authority district in England in terms of area. It contains much of the Lincolnshire Wolds in the west of the district and a long section of the North Sea coast. The Wolds comprise rolling low hills, while much of the eastern part of the district is low-lying land artificially drained with the coast sandy with coastal marshes. The district has abundant high-quality soil and agriculture (mostly arable) is still extremely important. It is a largely rural district, with a scattered population in small settlements and few towns, the largest of which are Louth and Skegness. Tourism is an important source of employment, with a series of small seaside towns in the stretch of the coast from Mablethorpe to Skegness, but the industry is highly seasonal. For many people, quality of life in the district is good, which acts to attract migrants, many of whom are of retirement age. With an ageing population, social care for the elderly is an increasingly important economic sector. The transport infrastructure of the district handicaps economic development. Roads in the district tend to be oriented north-south and road travel tends to be slow, particularly in the east where roads follow the pattern of drainage ditches and waterways. The only railway line serves Skegness and the southern part of the district. Poor east-west communications serve to emphasise the peripherality of the district relative to the centres of economic activity in the urban Midlands. The most accessible large towns are Lincoln and Grimsby in the west and north and Peterborough to the south (see Figure 1.1). The Coastal Zone is represented by the shaded area of the right-hand side of Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1: East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone

1.4 Structure of the Report The report begins with an overview of the some of the concepts relating to the equilibrium demand for skills in rural areas (Chapter 2). This is then followed by analysis of the demand side based on projections of future skill demand (Chapter 3) and the views of employers about the demand for skills (Chapter 4). Once the demand side has been addressed, an analysis of the supply is provided based on a comparison of participation levels in skills and learning (Chapter 5) and an analysis of travel to learn patterns across East Lindsey with particular emphasis on the Coastal Zone (Chapter 6). Chapter 7 provides the views of pupils in Year 10 at selected schools in the Coastal Zone about their future career aspirations. Chapter 8 weighs the evidence in relation to the balance between supply and demand and looks at how increasing the demand for skills and training might be facilitated by drawing on evidence from other coastal areas and from abroad. Finally, Chapter 9 provides conclusions and recommendations.

2. Skills Investments – the Special Case of Rural, Peripheral and Coastal Areas 2.1 Stimulating Skill Demand Over much of the past 150 years there have been concerns that the UK under-invests in skills relative to its main competitors.1 Evidence, for example, has consistently demonstrated that countries such as the Netherlands and Germany have been much more successful in creating a high- wage, high-skill economy where investments in technology and skills are seen to be mutually reinforcing.2 For the UK this is not just a national problem. A HM Treasury report from the early 2000s explained differences in levels of regional productivity with reference to skill levels.3 Simply raising skill levels will not necessarily raise productivity or value-added. Much of the research evidence points to the need for employers to simultaneously raise their demand for skills in line with shifting their product market towards more high-value segments of the market. And it is this rationale which guided the introduction of Train to Gain, the programme which sought, with some success, to link the provision of skills training to employers’ business plans.4 On the whole, however, there appears to be no simple solution to raising both the demand for skills from employers and ensuring that they are effectively deployed in the workplace. At a policy level there has been a shift from conventional ‘top-down’ policy approaches to regional and local economic development to more participatory and inclusive ‘bottom-up’ approaches.5 This has brought about a greater focus on endogenous (i.e. local) assets, and less of a focus on exogenous investments and transfers. This is also the general direction in which policies to address labour market issues have moved, with enhanced importance on integrating employment and skills for sustainable employment, greater emphasis than formerly being placed on building relationships with employers; partnership working involving the public, private and voluntary sectors; a greater emphasis on flexibility and individualisation in order to support individuals to overcome barrier(s) that they face in finding employment; and an enhanced role for local authorities in promoting

1 National Skills Task Force (2000) Skills for All: Research Report from the National Skills Task Force, Department for Education and Employment, Nottingham

2 House of Lords (2007) Apprenticeship: A Key Route to Skill, House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs. TSO, London

3 HM Treasury (2001) Productivity in the UK: 3 – The Regional Dimension, HM Treasury, London.

4 Learning and Skills Council (2008) Train to Gain Employer Evaluation: Sweep 1, Learning and Skills Council, Coventry

5 Pike A., Rodriguez-Pose A. and Tomaney J. (2006) Local and Regional Development, Routledge, London.

4 economic well-being (HM Treasury, DBERR and CLG, 2007)6 and addressing worklessness (Houghton et al., 2009).7

A ‘bottom-up’ approach to local economic development is in keeping with the New Rural Paradigm (OECD, 2006)8 which is place-based rather than sector-based (i.e. focused particularly on the land- based sector). Key ingredients of the new paradigm include a development strategy that covers a wide range of direct and indirect factors that affect the performance of local firms, a greater focus on endogenous (local) assets and knowledge and less of a focus on exogenous investments and transfers; and a collective/ governance approach, involving national, regional and local government, working negotiated with other stakeholders. Crucially, a place-based approach implies identifying the advantages and disadvantages of particular local assets and building on the former while mitigating the latter. These advantages and disadvantages are outlined in more detail in section 3.3. 2.2 The Low Skill Equilibrium? There are a number of reasons why the optimal level of training fails to occur, but in relation to the UK, this has been most cogently expressed in relation to the low-skills equilibrium (LSEq) hypothesis:9

The best way to visualize this argument is to see Britain as trapped in a low-skills equilibrium, in which the majority of enterprises staffed by poorly trained managers and workers produce low-quality goods and services. The term 'equilibrium' is used to connote a self-reinforcing network of societal and state institutions which interact to stifle the demand for improvements in skill levels.

Finegold and Soskice, 1989, p.22 In the Highlands and Islands of Scotland the low-skill equilibrium type situation has, given the rural and peripheral nature of this area, given rise to tight labour markets. In summary, the out-migration of young people from the Highlands and Islands initially to access education and training results in them leaving the region until their retirement. The out-migration of young people contributes to a tightening of labour supply which is accompanied by: i. relatively low levels of labour demand; ii. reports of skill shortages in relation to the vacancies which occur;

6 HM Treasury, Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform and Communities and Local Government (2007) Review of sub-national economic development and regeneration, HM Treasury, London.

7 Houghton S., Dove C. and Wahhab I. (2009) Tackling Worklessness: A Review of the contribution and role of English local authorities and partnerships, Communities and Local Government Publications, Wetherby.

8 OECD (2006) Rural Policy Reviews: The New Rural Paradigm Policies and Governance, OECD, Paris.

9 Finegold, D. and F. Soskice (1989) The Failure of Training in Britain: Analysis and Prescription, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 4, No.3, pp. 21-53

iii. employers being constrained in their attempts to move up-market by the existence of skill shortages which, in turn, constrains their capacity to expand or move into new markets.

The problem in the Highlands and Islands is further exacerbated by shortages of housing which further limits labour and skill supply. In many respects the problems faced by remote, rural economies in places such as the Highlands and Islands represents the worst of both worlds as indicated in Figure 2.1.10

Figure 2.1 Tight Labour Markets: Vicious Spiral

10 Daniel, W.W. et al., (2004) Tight Labour Markets in the Highlands and Islands, Future Skills Scotland, Inverness

Breaking out of the low-skills equilibrium will require, other things being equal, investments in training. As the next section will demonstrate this is particularly difficult in an area which has the characteristics of the East Lindsey Coastal Zone. It is also apparent that skills cannot be looked at in isolation; they are an integral part of a range of policies which need to be in place to foster economic development. Increasingly the emphasis is not only upon stimulating the demand for skills but also on utilising the skills which are available in an optimum manner. 2.3 Local Economic Development and Service Provision in Rural areas and Seaside Towns Rural areas and seaside towns are diverse and while they share some similarities in terms of challenges for local economic development and service provision, there are also contrasts. With regard to rural areas, a particular distinction may be made between ‘accessible’ and ‘peripheral’ rural areas, with the latter facing greater economic development challenges (Milbourne, 2004; Commission for Rural Communities).11 In relation to East Lindsey, it is the experience and characteristics of peripheral rural areas that are of greatest relevance. Here relative remoteness is coupled with a coastal location – and so there is the issue of contending with a ‘180 degree catchment area’ (i.e. half of the natural catchment area is in the sea) which limits the local market area on which services can draw.

In the Strategy for Seaside Success (CLG, 2010)12 published in March 2010 and an earlier ‘Benchmarking’ study of England’s seaside towns (including Skegness – as one of the smaller towns) in 200813 (which in turn took forward some of the findings from the House of Commons Communities and Local Government Committee Report on Coastal Towns in 2006/714) seaside resorts were identified as suffering:  disproportionate levels of worklessness, with associated poor health;

 reliance on a declining tourist trade and other low wage, low skill and sometimes seasonal employment sectors;  labour market imbalance, with a low representation of jobs in professional and financial services and the knowledge economy;  a peripheral location (in terms of physical transport and digital links); and

11 Milbourne P. (2004) Rural Poverty, Routledge, London; Commission for Rural Communities (2008) State of the Countryside 2008, CRC, Cheltenham.

12 Communities and Local Government (2010) Strategy for seaside success: Securing the future of seaside economies, Communities and Local Government, London.

13 Beatty C., Fothergill S. and Wilson I. (2008) England’s Seaside Towns: A ‘benchmarking’ study, Department for Communities and Local Government, London.

14 House of Commons Communities and Local Government Committee (2007) ‘Coastal Towns’, Second Report of Session 2006-07 HC 351, The Stationery Office, London.

 a distinctive demography (characterised by ageing and transient populations). Skegness (and other smaller settlements on the East Lindsey coast) shares all of these characteristics. In particular, Skegness displays the most acute seasonality of any of the seaside towns included in the study, as well having amongst the lowest median average earnings of any of the seaside towns and being one of the poorest performers on qualifications indicators.

While they share certain common features, it has been argued that a ‘one size fits all’ approach to seaside towns is inappropriate. In a review of the evidence, Fothergill (2008)15 refers to work undertaken by the Department for Trade and Industry which classifies seaside towns into three groups: first, those that are ‘performing well’ on the employment rate relative to the England average; secondly, those that are ‘maintaining’ their employment rate position close to the England average; and thirdly, those that are ‘declining’ – in terms of having an employment rate below the England average. Skegness is in this ‘declining group’ and it is also one of the smaller seaside towns in population and employment terms. While recession and growing environmental awareness offer opportunities for a rejuvenation of seaside tourism in the UK, seaside resorts have displayed varying degrees of success in reinventing themselves to date. The Strategy for Seaside Success highlighted Scarborough, St Ives, Weymouth and Torbay as having diversified their economic base to become amongst the most ‘thriving and vibrant’ towns in the country. For example:  In Scarborough (a larger and better connected town than Skegness) the Scarborough Renaissance Partnership (with a membership embracing the public, private and third sectors) was identified as having capitalised on physical regeneration of the harbour side by attracting £200 million of private sector investment; kick-starting business start-ups, and introducing Freebay Wi-Fi making the internet freely accessible. A key feature here, and in examples of successes elsewhere, is a cross-agency approach, maximising the potential of public sector (and other) funding sources.  In Blackpool one approach to tackling worklessness and addressing skills development has been to use Working Neighbourhoods Fund (WNF) and Local Economic Growth Initiative (LEGI) funding to provide entry level skills for workless residents in construction, with many individuals practising their skills on physical regeneration projects in Blackpool.

 Other seaside towns have invested in heritage and culture in order to broaden their appeal to a wider range of visitors and to expand their appeal to visitors outside the summer months (see Walton and Browne, 2010).16 An example here is Hastings, where the Council has funded large

15 Fothergill (2008) England’s Coastal Towns: A short review of the issues, evidence base and research needs, Paper prepared for the NCRA Panel, Communities and Local Government.

16 Walton J.K. and Browne P. (2010) Coastal Regeneration in English Resorts – 2010, Coastal Communities Alliance.

events and thematic festivals (e.g. Morris dancing, Seafood and Wine, etc) to attract visitors in quieter periods of the year.

The March 2010 Strategy for Seaside Success also identified the green economy as an area for potential development, in terms of new business opportunities, job creation and economic growth. Despite success stories, local authority regeneration practitioners continue to see the following key barriers (in descending order of importance) to coastal regeneration:17  the nature of the local economy;  lack of investment in infrastructure and transport links;

 levels of deprivation;  the lack of regeneration funding;  the nature of the housing market;

 peripherality; and  climate. The challenges of service delivery are especially acute in peripheral seaside towns and, more particularly, sparsely populated rural areas compared with urban areas because of lower density populations, larger distances that must be travelled by service users and service providers, and the small number of people in any location that preclude economies of scale.18 This makes delivering any particular services – in this instance training - more expensive in a rural location than in urban centres. These greater costs are borne by individuals partaking in training, by employers who face more unproductive time and higher travel costs while their workers travel to off-site training locations (so increasing pressures on budgets), and by service providers who incur greater costs in provision of training (Asthana et al., 2003).19 In the context of greater pressures on public spending and growing concerns about lower returns on public outlays, the challenges faced by small peripheral seaside towns and rural areas in training provision and take up are exacerbated. In economic terms the delivery of training needs to balance three factors: first, the generalist/specialist nature of training; secondly, the frequency of provision; and thirdly, the accessibility of provision. While all three of these factors can be balanced in large urban areas, in rural and peripheral areas it is likely to be possible to meet only two of the three factors simultaneously, via a model of relatively frequent, general and accessible training provision,

17 Reported in Walton J.K. and Browne P. (2010) op cit.

18 OECD (2010) Strategies to Improve Rural Service Delivery, OECD, Paris.

19 Asthana S. et al. (2003) ‘Allocating resources for health and social care: the significance of rurality’, Health and Social Care in the Community 11 (6), 486-93.

9 or via one of specialist, less frequent and less accessible provision (Green and Hardill, 2003; GHK Consulting, 2003).20

Some population sub-groups are more disadvantaged than others by these challenges to service provision in such areas. In a recent review of Working in 21st Century Rural England, Bates et al. (2008)21 identified four particularly vulnerable rural groups: young people, those in low paid employment, those with no or low skills and qualifications, and the self-employed and employees of small and micro businesses. They considered that within these groups the most vulnerable were those without access to accessible public or private transport and without access to informal networks. They also identified key labour market issues for these vulnerable groups as entering around poor quality of employment, low pay and a lack of opportunities to progress at work. Private providers of training and other services also face similar challenges in rural areas. Such providers can provide a service only where the combination of price, volume of business and cost of provision allows a sufficient profit for the firm to survive. In rural areas transport costs have to be borne by the service provider (reducing profits) or by the customers (reducing their demand). Hence, in generic terms, issues of longer distances, lack of critical mass and low density, mean that in rural areas there is less capacity than there is in urban areas to provide a broad set of services or as many providers of services. Consequently, it is of particular importance that the services and training provision that are available match as closely as possible local and sub-regional characteristics, needs and assets. In the case of business support, there is a particular need to facilitate interactions between businesses in location and/or sector-specific sub-groups in order to provide opportunities for shared training, networking and development. 2.4 The Labour Market, Skills and Local Economic Development in Lincolnshire and East Lindsey East Lindsey faces economic development and skills challenges experienced by many peripheral rural areas and small seaside towns. It also experiences the challenges faced by Lincolnshire, but to a more marked degree than for the county as a whole. This is especially the case in the Coastal Strip. Glyn Owen (2005)22 identified Lincolnshire as facing a crisis of productivity and incomes, resulting from the decline of agriculture and related industries, and also tourism. It performs less favourably than regionally or nationally on key economic indicators of GVA, earnings and skills. An up-to-date overview of key statistics on the local economy is provided in the East Lindsey Economic Baseline

20 Green A. E. and Hardill I. (2003), Rural labour markets, skills and training, Report prepared for DEFRA; GHK Consulting (2003) Provision of education and training in sparsely populated areas: LSC good practice guide, LSC.. 21 Bates P., Carta E., Dewson S., Francis R. and Pillai R. (2008) Working in 21st Century Rural England: A Scoping Study, Report prepared for the Commission for Rural Communities. 22 Glyn Owen Associates (2005) The Hidden Crisis: A Rural Strategy for Lincolnshire, Report to Lincolnshire Enterprise and Lincolnshire County Council.

10 produced in 2010 (ekosgen, 2010).23. Statistics reported in the Economic Baseline (not reproduced here) emphasise that GVA per head in Lincolnshire is below the regional and national averages.

Average earnings in East Lindsey are £2,500 lower than the regional average, which is in turn lower than the national average. A consequence of this is a tendency (reported by employers at a focus group) for workers to move between jobs for small increases in wage levels – “they move for 10p more per hour, even if it is for a 6-8 week summer job with longer hours” - so raising levels of staff turnover. In turn, this raised costs of any induction training and mandatory training to comply with legislative requirements, so reducing the amount of funding that might otherwise be available for other types of training. In any case, there was reported to be a general reluctance to ‘train for turnover’ and small employers fearful of ‘poaching’ of good staff may react by not investing in training individuals who might then leave. Interviews conducted with representatives from colleges with a presence within East Lindsey and in neighbouring areas confirmed that demand for training was generally “very low”. In those instances where employers wanted training, it tended to be for courses which did not lead to a qualification and hence where funding was not available. One college representative interviewed also noted that relatively frequent changes in government funding of training provision were counter-productive in that they could have negative consequences on relationships built up between training providers and employers as funding models changed. In terms of the local employment base, the East Lindsey Economic Baseline highlights key features of the local employment base as being an above average concentration of employment in agriculture and in hospitality and tourism (both of which are low wage sectors). Tourism has a big influence on the labour market in the area, and on the seasonality of employment opportunities (and consequently on unemployment). Health and social care is a significant employer; (this is likely to reflect, at least in part, the numbers of elderly people in the area). As noted in Chapter 4 of this report, this is a sector where there is likely to be job growth in the future. The wholesale, retail, hospitality and tourism sectors are dominated by part-time employment, which in turn contributes to low pay in the local area. There is an under-representation of higher value sectors, but some of the rural market towns (in particular) are attractive residential areas for managers and professionals. While there has been an increase in employment in knowledge-based industries in East Lindsey over recent years, this growth has not kept pace with regional and national levels. The particular sectoral structure of employment accounts for the proportion of self-employment being higher locally than either regionally or nationally and in a recessionary context a substantial number of those seeking to enter self-employment are doing so as a consequence of a lack of alternative employment opportunities. Educational performance in schools in East Lindsey is in line with national attainment levels. However, skills levels amongst adults (at Levels 2, 3 and 4) lag behind regional and national averages.

23 ekosgen (2010) East Lindsey Economic Baseline, Final Draft – January 2010, EKOS Consulting, Sheffield.

Work with employers to raise employee skill levels has been identified as a priority in order to address this (as highlighted below). This is explored further in Chapter 6.

The vision set out in the East Lindsey Economic Development Strategy (East Lindsey District Council, 2006)24 is to: ‘Improve the quality of life and opportunities for all and to develop quality sustainable employment opportunities’. The objectives are to:

 increase skills and aspirations – in order to address the skills deficit;  stimulate competition and business growth – an enterprise culture is seen as being linked to competitiveness, and in turn business growth; and

 enhancing the visitor product – in order to increase visitor spend and employment opportunities. In the Coastal Zone particular local economic development objectives are:

 diversification into non-agricultural activities;  to support the development and creation of micro-businesses;  diversification and quality enhancement of the tourism experience, including supporting a complementary offer to the traditional seaside experience;  conservation and upgrading of the rural heritage;  encouraging provision of training and skills development to assist long-term local economic sustainability;  increasing skills and aspirations – such the nature of the local economy; and  to support projects that address the issues of low levels of achievement and out-migration of young people. These strategic objectives are reinforced in the analyses and assessment set out in the East Lindsey Economic Baseline.25 In particular, the scale of the challenge to address low productivity by a combination of enterprise support, skills up-lifts and tailored support for indigenous businesses to improve their competitiveness is emphasised, as is the lack of good quality post-16 education and employment opportunities – which lead to difficulties in retaining local talent.

Specifically in relation to the seaside towns, it is worth noting that Skegness26 shares all of the characteristics identified in section 3.2 as being suffered by seaside towns, but generally in a more

24 East Lindsey District Council (2006) Economic Development Strategy 2006-2020, East Lindsey District Council.

25 ekosgen (2010) op. cit.

26 Skegness is one of the towns identified in seaside towns benchmarking studies; Mablethorpe falls below the size criterion for inclusion in such analyses.

12 acute form – suggesting that the local economic development challenges are likely to be greater than elsewhere. In particular, it displays the most acute seasonality of any of the seaside towns included in the study. Typically, seasonality is measured using the claimant unemployment rate. However, it is likely that employment fluctuates more than claimant unemployment, since some seasonal jobs will be filled by students and migrant workers who will drop out of the local labour market in the winter (and so will not be recorded on the claimant unemployment statistics). Likewise, the ‘benchmarking study’ of seaside towns27 shows that Skegness also performs particularly poorly on median hourly earnings and on qualifications indicators.

In local economic development terms, the visitor spend on the East Lindsey Coastal Strip has been identified as being generally ‘low value’. This means that many of the small tourism businesses are being run on low margins, which then impacts on a lack of investment in staff training (and in other elements of the business).28 Indeed, the local economy in aggregate may be characterised as ‘low value’, given the importance of other small businesses, a continuing reliance on agriculture (although this sector is much less important in employment terms than was the case historically) and the importance of the public sector for job opportunities in occupations demanding higher level qualifications. As noted in section 2.1, a place-based approach to local economic development involves building on local assets and either mitigating disadvantages or repositioning them as advantages. Foremost amongst the existing assets of the Coastal Strip29 are the natural environment (which is central to the tourist trade in seaside towns and which is attractive to some local residents and in-migrants) and low costs of living (relative to most other parts of the UK). The lack of congestion is an attractive feature for many existing (or prospective) residents. While the relatively low cost of living is in most circumstances viewed as an advantage, it need not necessarily be so in all circumstances. For example, the relatively low cost of living may attract some in-migrants whose characteristics30 are not conducive to the promotion of some parts of the area for family tourism; while the relatively low cost of living, coupled with relatively low wages, means that some individuals on benefits may be more reluctant than might otherwise be the case to move into work (i.e. the so-called ‘benefits trap’ may be particularly acute). Likewise, the lower wages which are also a feature of the local area means that it is a less popular area in which to work than to live. Moreover, there is a lack of extra income locally to spend on higher-value goods and services. The population is ageing faster in Lincolnshire and in East Lindsey than regionally or nationally. While this may be viewed as a disadvantage and undoubtedly places strains on service provision, it

27 Beatty et al. (2008) op cit.

28 Penn A. ‘East Lindsey’ in Walton J.K. and Browne P. (2010) op cit., 86-87.

29 As identified by participants in an Employer Focus Group specifically conducted for this project.

30 E.g. individuals with drug and alcohol problems.

13 also provides an opportunity for the local economy to specialise in some aspects of servicing an ageing economy and provides an opportunity to specialise in aspects of social care. Hence, this is a comparative advantage that could be exploited. Conversely, key disadvantages of the Coastal Strip include a poor transport infrastructure – which is exacerbated by the remote location. This means that the location of services (such as training provision) is a key factor in patterns of training take-up. Hence, the quality of training that is available locally is a key factor influencing skills development outcomes. While educational performance at school level is good, the existence of grammar schools creates an ‘educational divide’, with the most academically able young people tending to leave East Lindsey to take up higher education and subsequent job opportunities elsewhere since there is only a relatively small and narrow pool of higher level jobs available locally, while those who are lower achievers academically tend to stay in the local area. While young adults are the most migratory of all age groups and there may be individual benefits from young people taking up opportunities elsewhere, many of these individuals may be ‘lost’ to the local economy unless they choose, or are encouraged, to return at a later stage in their working lives to East Lindsey. Hence, the ‘long tail of low skills’ that is evident nationally is particularly pronounced in East Lindsey. A history of ready availability of low skill jobs in the summer months and a general lack of variety in the employment opportunities available has engendered a substantial lack of ambition and aspiration amongst a substantial element of the population, leading individuals to focus on what is available in the short-term, rather than to think about progression in the medium-term. This was evident from comments about individuals tending to look for a ‘job’ (hence, why would they be interested in training?) not a ‘career’ that were made by employers in a focus group discussion. This is a feature of a long- standing cultural legacy of low skills, combined with a tradition of many more highly skilled individuals ‘having to move away to get on’, that is likely to take considerable time to address. As a participant at a focus group of employers and local stakeholders noted: “We need career thinking – as a community the mind-set is not to be able to live here and do well, or that you can make your career local.” 2.5 Conclusion Simply raising skill levels will not necessarily lead to increased local productivity or value-added, there is a coinciding need to stimulate the demand for skills and the utilisation of skills by employers. Evidence supports the idea that employers need to raise their demand for skills in efforts to move into more high-value market segments.

Breaking out of a low-skill equilibrium is particularly challenging for areas like the East Lindsey Coastal Zone. East Lindsey has an under-representation of high-value sectors. The local economy as a whole may be characterised as ‘low value’, owing to the importance place on small businesses, continued dependence on agriculture and the main demand for high qualifications stemming from public sector employment. The relative remoteness and coastal location of East Lindsey limits the local market on which services can draw. Key barriers to coastal regeneration include the nature of

14 the local economy, lack of investment in infrastructure and transportation links, deprivation levels, limited regeneration funding, the nature of the housing market, peripherality, and climate.31

In addition to the challenges facing East Lindsey due to it being a peripheral rural area with small seaside towns within, it also encounters the challenges facing Lincolnshire as a whole but to a greater degree than the county as a whole. Lincolnshire has concerning levels of productivity and income, performing less favourably at the regional and national level on GVA, earnings and skills. Earnings in East Lindsey are lower than the regional average which are lower than the national average. This performance results in a higher employee turnover resulting from workers moving to jobs for minor wage increases. This high worker turnover has negative impacts on the willingness of employers to provide training. The ‘long tail of low skills’ is also pronounced in East Lindsey as many of the most academically successful young people leave the area to take up greater opportunities elsewhere leaving behind a general tendency for individuals to not consider longer term career prospects in East Lindsey. Breaking out of the low skill equilibrium in East Lindsey requires exploitation of the area’s strengths and mitigation of its disadvantageous characteristics. Amongst the area’s advantages are its natural environment, lack of congestion, and a relatively low cost of living (which can prove detrimental as well, particularly when coinciding with low wages). The rate of population ageing in East Lindsey, which is above the regional and national averages, can also be considered an asset and it provides an opportunity for local specialisation of services and increased importance of the social care sector. All else equal, investments in training will be needed to surmount present low-skills equilibrium of East Lindsey but skills cannot be considered in isolation and other policies regarding economic development must be considered in tandem with skills policies.

31 Walton, J.K. and Browne, P. (2010) op cit.

3. The Demand for Labour and Skills in the Coastal Zone: Medium Term Projections 3.1 Introduction Over the period to 2017 one of the dominant sets of factors shaping the demand for labour will be policies adopted by Government and the behaviour of employers as they tackle the consequences of the 2008/09 recession. This section provides a series of employment projections for the Coastal Zone using the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM). In order to demonstrate how the economy in the Coastal Zone will fare over the medium-term comparative data is also provided for Lincolnshire, East Midlands and the UK. Economic forecasts tend to show that following recession economies eventually revert to their long-term growth trend. Whilst this is predicted to occur following the 2008/09 recession, there is an increasing consensus amongst forecasters that the recovery will be relatively weak at least over the short-term. Over the medium-term, however, the economy is expected to revert to its long-term growth trend. This is reflected in the projections of employment produced below.

This study is concerned primarily with the demand for, and supply of, skills. Accordingly, a set of employment projections by occupation are provided where occupation demand provides a proxy measure of skill demand. The general trend in the data presented below is for employment to be increasingly concentrated in the service sector and in relatively high skilled jobs (professional / managerial jobs) and relatively low skilled ones (personal service and sales jobs). The change in the occupational distribution of employment has been referred to as having the shape of an egg-timer: lots of high skill and low skilled jobs but not much in between. Notwithstanding the impact of the recession, this trend is expected to continue over the medium-term. Whilst the Coastal Zone is expected to conform to the national and regional trend with respect to the changing characteristics of its occupational structure - in part because some of the assumptions underlying the LEFM are based on national and regional data - there are also distinctive local characteristics. The Coastal Zone has a distinctive industrial and occupational profile and this is a key determinant of the future demand for skills. 3.2 The National and Regional Economy Because of the severity of the 2008/09 recession and the impact this will have on the future demand for labour, it is worthwhile considering the impact over the medium-term, both nationally and across the Coastal Zone. It is estimated that the UK economy shrank by 6 per cent during the recent recession which is severe in comparison to both the 1980/81 and 1990/91 recessions. A recent review commented: “In many respects the recession of 2008-2009 appears to be the mirror image (that is, the reverse) of that of the mid Eighties. In the mid 1980s the UK economy suffered from high interest rates and an over-valued pound, which made imports cheap and goods very expensive to export as well as inhibiting investment by UK companies. As a consequence, the UK economy experienced significant import penetration, loss of overseas demand and a major restructuring of the economy, especially in the form of a decline in manufacturing capacity. In

contrast to the 1980s, the recession of 2008-2009 is characterised by very low interest rates and a depreciation of sterling against other currencies, notably the dollar and the euro. Both the currency depreciation and the low interest rate would normally be expected to provide mechanisms for boosting demand and, given time, expanding output. In the current context, however, the potential for export led growth is seriously undermined by the global nature of the current recession while households and business appear unable to gain access to finance as banks and other financial institutions attempt to replenish their capital to safer levels than hitherto. Restricted access to finance plus a collapse of consumer confidence have greatly reduced consumer demand and business investment.” (Hogarth et al., 2009). Evidence from past recessions show that economies – national, regional, and local – return eventually to their long-term growth trend during the recovery period, though it can take several years for employment to recover its pre-recession levels (see Table 3.1). This is important in the context of the East Midlands and East Lindsey labour market. Reports published by emda point to the region as a whole suffering from a low-skills equilibrium (see Chapter 2) but also point to the difficulty of shifting an economy’s equilibrium position. This can be doubly difficult during a period of weak output demand when considerable efforts may be required, especially over the short-term, to maintain the current equilibrium level.

Table 3.1: Economy, Employment, and Recession Start of End of Contraction Number of High point of Year when pre- recession recession in GDP quarters unemployment recession levels of before GDP employment recovered regained pre-recession levels 1 1974 Q4 1975 Q3 3.77 7 1,484 (1976) Never achieved previous levels 2 1980 Q1 1980 Q4 5.88 13 3,293 (1986) 1990 3 1990 Q3 1992 Q2 2.33 11 2,919 (1993) 1997 4 2008 Q2 2009 Q4 6.0 ? 2,450 (to date) ?

Source: Derived from Hogarth et al., 2009 and ONS Output and Employment Statistics The recession has taken its toll on the East Midlands with economic data pointing to the possibility of the recession having lasted longer in the region and the recovery being slightly weaker than that experienced nationally. Output growth in the East Midlands is expected to be around 2½ per cent to 2020, slightly slower than the UK average (see Figure 3.1). In part, this stems from the region’s industrial structure. Agriculture and manufacturing are both important industries for the East Midlands and there is a strong link between them given the importance of food and drink manufacturing to the regional economy. These are also industries which have been relatively adversely affected by the recession. It is estimated that manufacturing output fell by 13 per cent in 2009, and by output in agriculture by 3¼ per cent. Lincolnshire is particularly important with respect

17 to agriculture, accounting for 53 per cent of the region’s cereal crops and fallow areas, and 56 per cent of the region’s pigs.

Figure 3.1: Projections of Output Growth in the East Midlands and UK to 2020

Source: IER /CE Local Economic Forecasting Model 3.3 Demographic Change along the East Lindsey Coastal Zone Between 2008 and 2017 the population along the Coastal Zone is projected to grow by around seven thousand people and to increase by another four thousand people by 2022. As Table 3.2 reveals, however, much of the population growth is accounted for by those aged 65 years or over. In fact, the working age population – those aged 16-65 years – is projected to grow by one thousand people to 2017 and experience little or no change between 2017 and 2022. These are, of course, relatively simple extrapolations of projected regional population change but they do indicate that labour supply over the medium-term is likely to be constrained relative to the recent past. The impact of this on employment is dependent upon what happens to the economy. Should the Coastal Zone experience the level of output growth projected elsewhere in the East Midlands, this suggests that recruitment problems might, other things being equal, pose more of a problem than they have over the recent past. The evidence, however, points to the level of unemployment being relatively high over the medium-term as the next section indicates.

Table 3.2 Projections of Demographic Change along the Coastal Zone to 2020 (000s) Age Groups: 1998 2003 2008 2010 2017 2022 Change Change Men and 2008 - 2017 – Women 2017 2022 0 – 15 12.3 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.6 11.6 -0.5 -0.1 16 – 24 5.7 6.5 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.0 -0.3 -0.3 25 – 34 8.2 6.9 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.1 0.9 0.2 35 – 44 8.4 9.5 9.6 9.3 7.7 7.4 -2.0 -0.3 45 – 59 14.5 16.2 16.3 16.8 18.8 19.2 2.5 0.3 60 – 64 4.3 5.3 7.1 7.4 6.9 7.4 -0.2 0.6 65 And Over 15.4 16.8 18.7 20.0 25.9 29.5 7.2 3.6 Total 68.7 73.6 77.3 79.2 85.0 89.2 7.7 4.2

Men 0 – 15 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 -0.3 0.0 16 – 24 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.2 3.9 3.8 -0.2 -0.1 25 – 34 4.0 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.9 0.6 0.2 35 – 44 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.7 -0.9 -0.1 45 – 59 7.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.8 8.9 1.0 0.1 60 – 64 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.5 -0.2 0.2 65 And Over 6.8 7.7 8.8 9.6 12.6 14.3 3.7 1.8 Total 33.4 36.2 38.1 39.1 41.9 44.0 3.8 2.0

Women 0 – 15 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 -0.2 0.0 16 – 24 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 -0.1 -0.2 25 – 34 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 0.3 0.1 35 – 44 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.7 -1.0 -0.2 45 – 59 7.4 8.3 8.5 8.8 10.0 10.2 1.5 0.2 60 – 64 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 4.0 -0.1 0.4 65 And Over 8.5 9.0 9.9 10.5 13.3 15.2 3.5 1.8 Total 35.3 37.5 39.2 40.1 43.1 45.2 3.9 2.1 Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

3.4 Overall Employment Trends Following the 2008/09 recession employment levels are projected to fall to their mid-1980s level and recover gradually over the medium-term but even by the end of the forecast period employment levels will not have recovered the historical high point they achieved in the mid 2000s. With economic activity rates expected to grow over the forecast period – in part because of current policy to stimulate labour supply – unemployment levels will be relatively high compared to the recent past. This is expected to persist over the forecast period (see Figure 3.2).

Figure 3.2 Population, Employment, and Unemployment to 2020

30 100 90 25 80 70 20 Employment 60 Unemployment 15 Population 50 (000s) 40 10

30 Population (000s) 20 5

10 Employment and Unemployment

0 0

1982 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026 1981 1983 1985 1990 1992 1994 1996 2001 2003 2005 2007 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

Figure 3.3 reveals that the employment trends projected over the forecast period are comparable to those observed across the East Midlands and Lincolnshire as a whole. This suggests that the period of relatively sluggish employment growth is likely to be replicated in areas adjacent to the Coastal Zone and East Lindsey as a whole such that employment opportunities elsewhere might be more limited than they have been over the past ten years or so. Figure 3.3 Comparative Employment Trends to 2020

350 2500

300 2000

250

1500 200

East Lindsey Coastal Strip 150 Lincolnshire 1000

Employment (000s) East Midlands

100 Employment East in Midlands (000s) 500 50

0 0

1981 1983 1985 1986 1988 1990 1992 1993 1995 1997 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 2024 2026 1982 1984 1987 1989 1991 1994 1996 1999 2001 2006 2008 2011 2013 2016 2018 2020 2023 2025

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

3.5 The Changing Structure of Employment Table 3.3 reveals that the Coastal Zone, in common with East Lindsey as a whole, is relatively more dependent upon part-time employment than the rest of the East Midlands. In 2008, 35.4 per cent of people along the Coastal Zone were in part-time employment compared to 30 per cent in Lincolnshire, 29 per cent in the East Midlands, and 28 per cent in the UK as a whole. IER’s projections of future employment levels have consistently forecast that part-time employment will over time account for an increasing share of employment. This represents, in part, increasing flexibility in hours worked but it also reveals pockets of weak demand for labour where people would prefer to work full-time but opportunities tend to be for part-time employment. The increase in part-time employment might also occur due to the use of casual labour in sectors such as agriculture and tourism.

Along the Coastal Zone by 2017 40 per cent of employment will be part-time compared to 32 per cent in Lincolnshire and 29 per cent in the East Midlands. By 2022, part-time employment could account for as much as 43 per cent of employment; nearly the same as for full-time employment.

Table 3.3 Changing Structure of Employment: percentage of people in full-time, part-time, and self-employment 1998 2003 2008 2010 2017 2022 Full time employment Coastal Zone 51.7 57.4 52.7 51.4 47.7 44.8 Lincolnshire 55.1 59.6 56.2 56.0 55.1 54.0 East Midlands 60.1 58.8 59.5 59.2 59.3 59.3 UK 61.0 59.7 59.4 59.1 58.5 58.0

Part time employment Coastal Zone 34.8 29.5 33.3 35.4 40.0 43.4 Lincolnshire 30.8 26.5 28.7 30.0 32.5 34.6 East Midlands 27.0 28.3 28.4 29.2 29.4 29.6 UK 26.1 27.5 27.4 27.8 28.5 29.1

Self employed Coastal Zone 13.5 13.1 14.0 13.2 12.3 11.8 Lincolnshire 14.2 13.9 15.0 14.0 12.4 11.4 East Midlands 12.9 12.9 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.1 UK 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

3.6 Employment by Gender Figure 3.4 shows the changing distribution of employment between men and women along the Coastal Zone more clearly – this shows that women will take an increasing share of employment and will comprise a majority of people in employment by 2026.

Figure 3.4 Male and Female Employment along the Coast Zone to 2020

thousands 15

0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 females males

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

Although women will outnumber men in the labour market, even over the medium-term their employment will be predominantly part-time, though men’s employment will be increasingly in part- time work, especially so along the Coastal Zone compared to Lincolnshire, the East Midlands, or the UK (see Table 3.4). Although the percentage of men in part-time employment is projected to grow, the number of men in employment is projected to decline (see Figure 3.5).

Over the recovery period, overall levels of employment will grow, though at a pace projected to be slower than that recently experienced. There has to be more than a suspicion that the overall volume of employment may be more or less static or even falling slightly. Volume of employment means the total number of hours worked across all businesses in the Coastal Zone. Over time, the average hours each person works has continuously fallen although over recent years the pace of decline has reduced, but the aggregate number of hours worked in the economy has increased due to growth in the economy and increased supply of labour (e.g. more women returning to work). During a period of sluggish employment growth and with an increasing percentage of people

Table 3.4 Changing Structure of Employment by Gender: percentage of men and women in full-time, part-time, and self-employment 1998 2003 2008 2010 2017 2022

Men

Full time employment

Coastal Zone 67.4 70.1 66.5 66.3 65.1 63.9 Lincolnshire 69.3 70.8 68.4 69.2 70.8 71.5 East Midlands 73.0 70.7 71.4 71.5 71.6 71.5 UK 72.6 70.2 69.5 69.1 67.9 67.0 Part time employment

Coastal Zone 14.0 12.9 15.0 16.2 18.3 19.9 Lincolnshire 10.9 10.4 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.5 East Midlands 9.9 12.2 12.3 13.1 14.3 15.4 UK 10.1 12.6 13.0 13.7 15.6 17.0 Self employed

Coastal Zone 18.6 17.0 18.5 17.4 16.6 16.2 Lincolnshire 19.8 18.8 20.2 18.9 17.0 16.0 East Midlands 17.1 17.1 16.3 15.4 14.1 13.2 UK 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.2 16.5 16.1 Women

Full time employment

Coastal Zone 37.7 43.3 39.0 37.8 34.2 31.6 Lincolnshire 40.1 45.7 42.3 41.8 39.9 38.4 East Midlands 46.3 44.7 45.8 45.4 44.7 44.3 UK 48.0 47.6 48.0 47.8 47.6 47.4 Part time employment

Coastal Zone 53.4 48.0 51.5 52.9 56.9 59.6 Lincolnshire 51.6 46.5 48.5 49.4 52.2 54.2 East Midlands 45.5 47.2 47.0 47.3 47.3 47.1 UK 44.2 44.6 43.7 43.8 43.6 43.4 Self employed

Coastal Zone 8.9 8.7 9.5 9.3 8.9 8.8 Lincolnshire 8.2 7.8 9.1 8.8 7.9 7.4 East Midlands 8.3 8.1 7.2 7.3 8.0 8.5 UK 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.2 Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

23 working part-time rather than full-time, it may be that the aggregate number of hours worked has stopped increasing. Where this has no impact on wage or income levels because reductions in working hours are driven by productivity changes this might be considered a favourable outcome (where workers are able to select an increased number of leisure hours in place of work hours), but where the fall in hours is associated with a fall in wage or income levels due to sluggish demand, this is a potentially difficult outcome for policy makers. It is difficult to be sure about this issue in relation to the Coastal Zone but there is prima facie evidence that this may occur.

Figure 3.5 Changing Structure of Employment by Gender along the East Lindsey Coastal Zone, 2008-2017

1.5

0.5

0 Thousands

-0.5

-1

-1.5

time

time time

time time time

time time

employed

employed employed

- -

Total full Total

Male full Male

Total part Total

Male part Male

Female full

Female part

Total self Total

Male self Male Female self

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

3.7 Employment by Industry Industrial structure is one of the primary determinants of skill demand in the economy. Figure 3.6 shows the industrial structure in the Coastal Zone compared to Lincolnshire, East Midlands, and the UK. The most apparent difference is the relatively high dependence upon the distribution, hotels and catering sector for employment compared to elsewhere. This reflects the importance of tourism to the Coastal Zone.

Table 3.5 shows how the structure of employment is likely to change over the medium-term. It reveals that in the period 2008 to 2017, the two sectors which will grow with respect to the share of employment they account for are: (i) distribution, hotels and catering; and (ii) the public sector. The public sector is projected to account for 37 per cent of all employment by 2017, slightly up from 35

24 per cent in 2008. Around a third of all public sector employment is in health and social care and this percentage is expected to increase over the medium-to long-term in the Coastal Zone.

Over the long-term, the share of employment in construction is projected to grow alongside continued growth in distribution, hotels and catering. This pattern of change in the industrial structure of the Coastal Zone is more or less replicated across the county, region, and country, except that in the Coastal Zone the shift in employment structure towards distribution, hotels and catering is even more manifest.

Figure 3.6 Structure of Employment in the Coastal Zone, 2008

Government and other services

Financial and business services

Transport and communications

Distribution hotels and catering

Construction

Electricity gas and water

Manufacturing

UK Mining and quarrying EM Lincs Agriculture etc Coastal Zone

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 % of employment

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

Table 3.5 Industrial Structure of Employment, 1998-2022 Change Change 2008- 2017- 1998 2003 2008 2010 2017 2022 2017 2022 Coastal Zone Agriculture etc 4.3 2.9 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 -0.6 -0.5 Mining and quarrying 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 11.1 12.6 7.9 7.3 6.7 6.3 -1.2 -0.5 Electricity gas and water 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Construction 6.0 6.9 8.0 6.7 7.0 7.4 -1.0 0.3 Distribution hotels and 40.5 32.4 35.6 36.8 37.7 37.3 2.2 1.0 catering Transport and 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 0.0 0.0 communications Financial and business 6.8 7.3 8.3 7.9 8.2 8.5 0.0 0.3 services Government and other 28.2 33.4 35.4 36.6 36.1 36.6 0.8 -0.5 services Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

Lincolnshire Agriculture etc 9.3 6.3 6.5 6.4 4.8 4.1 -1.7 -1.5 Mining and quarrying 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 15.3 18.0 13.1 12.6 12.0 11.4 -1.1 -0.6 Electricity gas and water 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Construction 6.6 7.4 8.5 7.2 7.7 8.0 -0.8 0.5 Distribution hotels and 25.8 23.3 22.2 22.9 23.6 23.4 1.4 0.7 catering Transport and 3.8 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 0.1 0.0 communications Financial and business 11.5 10.6 12.8 12.4 13.0 13.7 0.2 0.7 services Government and other 27.1 28.7 32.1 33.8 34.0 34.6 1.9 0.2 services Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

Table 3.5 (continued): Industrial Structure of Employment, 1998-2022 Change Change 2008- 2017- 1998 2003 2008 2010 2017 2022 2017 2022 East Midlands Agriculture etc 2.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.1 -0.6 -0.5 Mining and quarrying 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 Manufacturing 22.2 17.4 13.8 13.2 12.2 11.4 -1.5 -1.0 Electricity gas and water 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 Construction 6.2 6.8 8.0 6.9 7.3 7.5 -0.7 0.4 Distribution hotels and 22.6 22.8 22.1 22.6 23.2 23.1 1.1 0.6 catering Transport and 4.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 0.1 0.0 communications Financial and business 14.1 15.0 17.4 17.0 18.1 19.0 0.7 1.1 services Government and other 26.6 29.3 30.0 31.5 31.0 31.3 1.0 -0.4 services Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

UK Agriculture etc 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 -0.3 -0.4 Mining and quarrying 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 15.8 12.2 9.9 9.5 8.7 8.0 -1.2 -0.8 Electricity gas and water 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 Construction 6.2 6.4 7.0 6.6 6.9 7.1 0.0 0.4 Distribution hotels and 23.1 23.0 22.3 22.1 22.3 22.1 0.1 0.2 catering Transport and 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 communications Financial and business 17.9 19.5 21.1 20.7 22.1 23.2 1.0 1.4 services Government and other 28.7 30.7 31.6 32.8 32.2 32.1 0.5 -0.7 services Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

3.8 Employment by Occupation Occupation provides a proxy, albeit imperfect, measure of skill demand. Figure 3.7 shows the current occupational structure of employment in the Coastal Zone compared to Lincolnshire, East Midlands, and the UK. It reveals that the skill structure of the Coastal Zone is skewed, slightly, towards less skilled occupations - elementary, sales, and personal service jobs – compared to the other areas. Managers, professionals, and administrative jobs are under-represented compared to the county, region, or the UK. As noted earlier, the occupational structure is largely a reflection of the industrial structure of the Coastal Zone

Figure 3.7 Employment by Occupation in the Coastal Zone, 2008

Elementary

Operatives

Sales

Personal service UK Skilled trades EM Administrative Lincs Associate prof. Coastal Zone

Professionals

Managers

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

% in employment

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

A more detailed occupational disaggregation for the Coastal Zone is provided in Figure 3.8 to show the number of people employed in each occupation. It reveals the relatively large number of people employed in elementary, sales, personal services, and as corporate managers. Looking to the future it will be sales and personal service occupations which are most likely to grow in employment (see Figure 3.9). The data also reveal that a relatively large number of jobs will be lost in elementary occupations, machine operatives, and skilled trades – all jobs related to the production sector.

Figure 3.8 Detailed Occupational Structure of the Coastal Zone

Elementary Clearial Service Elementary: Trades/Plant/Mach Transport Drivers and Ops Process Plant & Mach Ops Customer Service Occupations Sales Occupations Leisure/Oth Pers Serv Occs Caring Personal Service Occs Other Skilled Trades Skilled Construct. Trades Skilled Metal/Elec Trades Skilled Agricultural Trades Secretarial & Related Occs Admin & Clerical Occupations Bus/Public Serv. Assoc Prof. Culture/Media/Sport Occs Protective Service Occs Health Associate Prof. Science Associate Prof. Business/Public service Prof. Teaching/Research Prof. Health Professionals Science/Tech Professionals Managers and Proprietors Corporate Managers

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Number of people employed

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

Figure 3.9 Occupational Change in the Coastal Zone

change 2008-2017

Total Elementary Clearial Service Elementary: Trades/Plant/Mach Transport Drivers and Ops Process Plant & Mach Ops Customer Service Occupations Sales Occupations Leisure/Oth Pers Serv Occs Caring Personal Service Occs Other Skilled Trades Skilled Construct. Trades Skilled Metal/Elec Trades Skilled Agricultural Trades Secretarial & Related Occs Admin & Clerical Occupations Bus/Public Serv. Assoc Prof. Culture/Media/Sport Occs Protective Service Occs Health Associate Prof. Science Associate Prof. Business/Public service Prof. Teaching/Research Prof. Health Professionals Science/Tech Professionals Managers and Proprietors Corporate Managers

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 Change in number employed

Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone The analysis above is based on the changing structure of employment in the Coastal Zone and shows the overall level of expansion or contraction in the demand for people with differing levels of skill. There is, however, a need to take into consideration replacement demands. These refer to the number of people which will be needed to replace people who leave an occupation for a variety of reasons including, mainly, retirement. Hence even in an occupation which is projected to show an overall decline in the number of people employed there may well be a requirement for a large number of people to enter that occupation because of the level of replacement demands. Table 3.6 shows the net change in the number of people employed by occupation (i.e. whether the overall number of people employed in an occupation is expected to expand or contract over the period 2008 to 2017), the level of replacement demand for the occupation, and the total

30 requirement (replacement demands ± net change). The data have been rounded to the nearest 10. A degree of caution is required in using the data in Table 3.6 as they provide, at best, a rough and ready indication of the overall likely level of demand for people in different occupations. Moreover, they are sensitive to future decisions about pension policy and retirement ages. Overall the data show that by 2017 there will be 7,000 job openings as a result of new jobs being created (250) and replacing people who have left an occupation for whatever reason (6,740). Table 3.6 Replacement Demands 2008-2017 (rounded) Net Change Replacement Total Demand Requirement Corporate Managers 210 550 760 Managers and Proprietors -130 430 290 Science/tech Professionals 70 70 140 Health Professionals 20 30 60 Teaching/research Prof. -50 420 370 Business/public Service Prof. 30 80 110 Science Associate Prof. 10 120 120 Health Associate Prof. 30 270 300 Protective Service Occs 40 20 60 Culture/media/sport Occs 30 90 110 Bus/public Serv. Assoc Prof. 30 190 220 Admin & Clerical Occupations -30 380 360 Secretarial & Related Occs -10 260 250 Skilled Agricultural Trades -90 190 100 Skilled Metal/elec Trades -240 210 -40 Skilled Construct. Trades -160 190 30 Other Skilled Trades -110 180 80 Caring Personal Service Occs 470 650 1,120 Leisure/oth Pers Serv Occs 80 200 290 Sales Occupations 390 530 920 Customer Service Occupations 80 40 120 Process Plant & Mach Ops -200 260 60 Transport Drivers And Ops -30 300 270 Elementary: Trades/plant/mach -270 310 40 Elementary: Clerical/service 80 780 860 All occupations 250 6,740 7,000 Source: CE / IER Projections for East Lindsey Coastal Zone

The data reveals that the greatest number of people will be required in the following occupations:  corporate managers  caring and personal care;  sales occupations; and  elementary occupations.

This reflects the trend which has been observed across the UK for some time: a demand for relatively highly skilled and qualified people (typically in managerial and professional occupations) and less skilled jobs (sales and personal service). It is notable that the total requirement is positive across nearly all occupations except skilled metal and electrical workers. 3.9 Conclusion The data provided in this section are indicative of future skill demand in the Coastal Zone. A number of assumptions have had to be made about future output growth drawn from data available only at the national or regional level. In other instances the projections are based on what is expected to happen to the Lincolnshire or East Lindsey economies and labour markets. Nevertheless, the projections of future skill demand have been estimated using the latest macroeconomic forecasts for the national and regional economy and produced using the LEFM means of occupational forecasting. Over the medium-term the projections of future employment change show that the economy will be increasingly concentrated on those sectors of the economy where the Coastal Zone is relatively strong: tourism and social care. This will in turn generate an increased demand for the jobs associated with these sectors. It is also apparent that there will be an on-going decline in the number of skilled trades jobs which, historically, have been associated with traditional apprenticeships. But it needs to be borne in mind that the Coastal Zone is beginning from a relatively low base. The National Skills Audit identified industries according to their economic significance (i.e. some indicator of their value-added to the economy) and employment significance (i.e. the percentage of people employed). Figure 3.10 provides a rough estimate of how employment in the Coastal Zone is distributed with reference to economic and employment significance. The horizontal axis provides an indicator of value-added per person (£000) and the vertical axis provides an indication of the percentage of people employed in each sector. In a relatively high value-added economy there would be a cluster of sectors in the upper left quadrant of the chart. In the coastal zone, however, most activity is found in the upper right hand quadrant (i.e. relatively high percentages of employment in relatively low-value sectors). The data are, at best, approximations of activity in the Coastal Zone and should be treated with considerable caution. If low-value added is taken as a proxy measure of relatively low-skilled activity then the nature of the skill issue the Coastal Zone faces become manifest: that of trying to stimulate demand for skills in sectors which are likely to have a relatively low demand, in aggregate, for skills. Much of the regional skills strategy is set in terms of a low-skill equilibrium. Raising the equilibrium level is exceedingly difficult to achieve and is likely to be realised only over a relatively long-period of time. A low-skill equilibrium can simply reflect the industrial structure. If an economy is dependent

32 upon low-valued added activity then this will be reflected in an employment structure characterised by low-skill, low wage employment. There is, however, the possibility of driving up skill levels within those parts of the economy which are strong. The prospects for this are considered in the next chapter which looks at the skill needs of employers in the engineering, hospitality, social care, and public sectors.

Figure 3.10: Sectoral Value-added and the Percentage of People Employed

18 Hotels etc 16

14 Retailing

12 Health Misc. Serv 10 Education Construction

8 % employed% Pub AdminDistribution 6 Prof Serv 4 Other Bus. Land Transport etc

2 Agric FoodMech. Man Eng Wood Motor VehiclesBanking OtherTextileMetal ManPrinting GoodsRubber Elec. Eng. Comms ElectronicsTrans.Non - metal Equip Basic metal GasPharma Supply Water Supply Energy 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Gross value added (£)

Source: IER Estimates

4. Employer and Other Stakeholder Perspectives on the Demand for Labour 4.1 Introduction: Background and Objectives The projections of employment provide a quantitative insight into the demand for skills both currently and over the medium-term. To supplement this in order to gain a more in-depth view of current and future skill needs, interviews were undertaken with a number of employers in the Coastal Zone and with key stakeholders, including those in engaged in the provision of training or matching people to jobs.

The interviews with employers focused on their views of the local economy and labour market, the challenges encountered by employers in recruiting suitable staff, the training activity currently undertaken, the issues employers face in providing training to their staff and the extent to which their training needs and priorities are likely to develop in the future. The interviews with key stakeholders concentrated more on understanding the barriers which might be preventing more training and skills development taking place in the Coastal Zone. 4.2 Sample and Methodology IFF Research undertook 25 face-to-face interviews with representatives of organisations operating in the East Lindsey Coastal Zone. In each case the respondent was the individual responsible for recruitment and training at that establishment. Interviews were undertaken with organisations in four industry sectors across a range of sizes (in terms of number of employees). The full breakdown of interviews completed is set out in Table 4.1 below. Table 4.1: Completed interviews by industry sector and organisation size Industry sector Number of employees

1 to 10 11 to 50 50 or more Total

Engineering 3 1 2 6

Hospitality 3 4 2 9

Public sector - 4 1 5

Social care - 3 2 5

Total 6 12 7 25

Contact details for businesses located in the East Lindsey area were obtained from a commercial database provider. Records were filtered by SIC code to ensure that the businesses contacted operated in the four sectors covered by the research.

All interviews conducted were qualitative, in-depth interviews using a semi-structured discussion guide designed in collaboration with IER and East Lindsey District Council. These interviews tended to last around an hour. All interviews were conducted in February 2010. The interviews with key stakeholders were conducted either by telephone or face-to-face by a senior IER researcher. The aim here was to explore with training providers and representatives of various agencies with a responsibility or interest in skills development in the Coastal Zone. In total, ten stakeholder organisations were interviewed. 4.3 Employer Profile and Business Context 4.3.1 Business Context The companies interviewed within the hospitality sector varied from small pubs to very large holiday camps. The large camps were part of larger parent companies based outside East Lindsey, and operating other branches across the UK. Hospitality companies ranged from those offering a largely standardised service to high volumes of customers at relatively low cost to those offering higher quality, more bespoke services, typically at higher prices. Most employers in the hospitality sector said they required a high standard of skills from their workforce, and felt that this differentiated them from the competition. “We have a policy of training and we try and train to keep expert staff on hand all the time to serve the needs of the customer.” Hospitality, 10 - 49 employees

Most companies in the hospitality sector perceived their competitors to be similar local businesses, with the exception of one large holiday park that recognised that they were competing with similar centres across the UK. Several mentioned that the size of their workforce varied throughout the year, reflecting the seasonality of the tourism industry.

Engineering companies tended to be involved in the manufacture of equipment or packaging, often related to agriculture, and most regarded themselves as ‘high-end’ operations, providing bespoke products. Most were independent companies. They serviced customers operating in Lincolnshire as well as across the UK, while some exported to Europe and beyond. Consequently their competitors tended to be located in the wider region as well as across the UK. Their customers were exclusively other businesses, rather than public sector clients. Most had been operating in the East Lindsey area for more than 25 years. The social care organisations interviewed comprised both independent operators and branches of larger organisations. Most judged themselves to be on par with their competitors in terms of price and type of service, although several required some specialist skills of their employees, such as specific nursing qualifications, which enabled the organisation to specialise its offering. “We are very much a specialist and additional community service. We don’t really have competitors.” Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

Public sector organisations included educational, health, sporting and care facilities. They tended to employ a relatively high proportion of part-time staff. 4.3.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of an East Lindsey Coastal Zone Location East Lindsey’s coastal location was, unsurprisingly, perceived to be of huge benefit by employers in the hospitality sector. The tradition of holidaying in the area means that there are plentiful tourist facilities and attractions, and the seaside location continued to appeal to holidaymakers. Some care homes also regarded the seaside location as an advantage, making East Lindsey an appealing area to retire to.

“There is a fairly loyal customer base for us – the traditional seaside towns from the 1950s and 60s remain and people come back year on year. We also have some of the best beaches and there is a wide choice of things to do for the tourists.”

Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees The low costs associated with living and operating in the area also brought benefits. Engineering firms in particular commented on the low costs of running a business in terms of rental of premises, wages, community charges and business tax, while for one engineering company, the availability of low-skilled or non-skilled labour was a distinct advantage. An associated advantage was the low cost of living for employees.

“Expectations of employees from a wage point of view are not so great as they would be if we were in a major conurbation.”

Engineering, 50 - 249 employees

The agricultural industry in the area was vital to the operation of several engineering companies, which serviced customers operating in various areas of farming, food production and packaging. Softer benefits were also widely mentioned; some employers felt they and their employees appreciated the quieter way of life in East Lindsey. “It feels as if you've got off the treadmill. People have time for you here. It's more personal.”

Engineering, fewer than 10 employees

“It’s a nice place to work, a nice part of the world. You don’t get all the problems of a metropolis, hooligans, etc.”

Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees

Employers in social care and the public sector felt they were appreciated by the community, and in turn that their organisations benefitted from the strong community spirit and the networks associated with this. The community was considered to have a great deal to offer to residents.

“[There are] very good local networks for arts, dance and drama – we run a community theatre group, which we get funded separately for. It is a small market town but has a very good arts partnership. A new leisure centre just opened up. There are good local action groups – of parents, carers and professionals – looking at rights and disability issues, signage etc.”

Public Sector, 50 - 249 employees

The principal – and most frequently cited – disadvantage of the East Lindsey area was its poor transport infrastructure, exacerbated by its remote location. Employers in the engineering, hospitality and public sectors reported that the poor road network hampered their operations, while engineers found it difficult both to have supplies delivered on time and then to transport products to clients, especially those further afield, because of the distance to the nearest motorway. Employers in the hospitality sector felt that the road networks were a potential obstacle to visitors’ enjoyment of the area. Poor local public transport links were thought to compound the transport problem, particularly for tourists, health service clients and employees. While many employers acknowledged that poor public transport was a function of the remoteness of the area, they felt nonetheless that their organisations suffered as a consequence, especially in terms of staffing.

“From a tourism point of view the public transport system is appalling.” Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees “Staff are very dispersed ... so it is not easy for them to react quickly if we need sudden cover. It means we have to do a lot of forward planning against contingencies.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees “This has a knock-on effect with staffing too – ten miles would be a long way to travel to work.” Social Care, 50 - 249 employees "Because the area is so dispersed, regular transport services are not economically viable.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees Skills supply was mentioned spontaneously by a number of employers. This affected engineering companies in particular, who could not find the skilled people they needed in the local population. Finding well-qualified teachers, teaching assistants and nurses also emerged as a problem, with one employer suggesting that the age profile of local residents was a factor in this.

“[A disadvantage is the] availability of skilled labour: the expertise about knowing how to handle and how to design the equipment; the availability of skilled sheet metal workers and fabricators. There are not a lot of people around here that do this sort of thing so you either train your own or people have to come from further afield.” Engineering, 50 - 249 employees

“We haven’t got a pool of qualified nurses that we can pull on because it is a retirement area, so recruitment is always difficult.”

Social Care, 10 - 49 employees Employers working in the tourism sector highlighted the seasonal difficulties of their industry, with high demand in summer and low demand in winter, and the fact that “out of season, there is nothing to draw people into the area”. Several employed considerably more people in the summer months, although some larger operators used their premises for conferences and events in the low season. Other disadvantages included a lack of industry in the area, which affected two engineering companies because they simply did not have enough potential customers. Hospitality employers mentioned a lack of cleanliness maintained in public areas like streets and beaches. 4.4 Current Conditions On balance, companies operating within hospitality expected to experience stability or growth in the coming year, unlike other sectors where the expectation, although varied, was more negative. Larger employers in the hospitality sector, such as holiday parks, found that they had benefitted considerably from the recession, rising fuel costs and a weak pound, with greater numbers of people opting to holiday in the UK rather than abroad. Many were trying UK-based caravan holidays for the first time and the large parks aimed to retain these new and different customers by offering a good level of service. Having had a profitable year, many employers felt that maintaining their success would be a challenge, particularly as some of the factors determining this success were beyond their control, such as the Euro exchange rate.

“We’re doing well and had a very good year in 2009. In some ways the recession helped with more people staying in the UK for their holiday, but you have to work very hard to get them to spend their money because money is tighter for them.”

Hospitality, over 1000 employees Smaller hospitality operations like pubs and bed and breakfast accommodation had struggled, however. Some had been forced to reduce their prices in order to ensure that they were fully occupied, while others had found that customers were staying for shorter periods. Others had suffered through a particularly quiet winter, and were painfully aware that customers had less disposable income to spend. Some had even had to make some staff redundant.

During the recession, many employers in hospitality had been putting greater emphasis on improving customer service, with the expectation that customers would be more likely to

39 recommend establishments if they were satisfied with the service they had received. Aware that people were choosing to stay at home rather than go out to eat and drink, some pubs and restaurants had endeavoured to offer higher quality food as well as providing higher quality service in order to differentiate themselves from the competition. “The three things that help are; we have a better team than we have ever had, better entertainment and the company that own us are prepared to invest in us if we make money.” Hospitality, over 1000 employees

Most engineering companies had found the current market conditions challenging, in part because of the increased cost of raw materials and in part because customers sought lower cost products, which, in combination, have a depressing effect on profit margins.

“Raw materials have gone up dramatically – the price of steel. If you try to pass on the increase, the customers may go elsewhere. So we try to absorb it.” Engineering, fewer than 10 employees

“There is a trend towards lower-cost products ... This reflects the recession.” Engineering, 50 - 249 employees Another problem was that customer businesses had been forced to close because of the recession, leaving engineering companies with a reduced client base, while those that remained in business tended to spend less. Engineering firms servicing the agriculture and fishing industries had experienced tougher conditions in recent years, due to government regulations affecting the fishing industry and poor weather having an impact on farming. Some employers predicted that conditions in the next 12 months would remain the same, if not worsen, and one who had not yet needed to make any redundancies feared he might need to do so.

Diversification was seen as a key survival strategy, whether by branching out into manufacturing or tapping into the trend for greater environmental awareness by diversifying into recycling or the production of eco-friendly packaging, for example. Indeed the one engineering firm that proved the exception to the rule and had found recent market conditions to be extremely buoyant had benefitted from increased consumer demand for agricultural products on the back of the growing trend for self-sufficiency and ‘growing your own’. Looking back over the past five years, those businesses with an involvement in recycling and environmental products had performed reasonably well, experiencing growth in these areas. Social care providers had not suffered from the recession to the same extent as engineering firms, although there was evidence that people were less able to afford care. Several businesses in this sector had found that their operations had been hampered by changes in government policy: in particular, the increasing trend for the elderly to be cared for in their own homes for longer had meant that purely residential care homes were struggling. Some residential care homes feared that they would not survive for much longer: one of these was “not sure if we are really a viable business” and thought that purely residential care homes would probably be phased out over time. Another

40 organisation did not consider insolvency to be an imminent threat, but was clear that they would need to specialise in order to survive, with an emphasis on specialist nursing care. Other social care providers cited the need for more funding from social services, without which, businesses were likely to fail. “Residents tend to stay at home longer and then move to residential nursing care or hospital – we do not provide nursing here.” Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

“We need to diversify; we need to add another level of expertise. I think we need to specialise in palliative and end of life care, not just for the elderly, but also tapping into the hospice-type services.”

Social Care, 50 - 249 employees The impact of the recession on public sector organisations tended to have been relatively minor, with the exception of a medium-sized organisation that was experiencing considerable cuts to their funding from East Lindsey District Council. There was, however, some evidence that the financial difficulties experienced by businesses in the private sector were beginning to affect the public sector. For example, the public sector’s supply chain was disrupted by companies going into administration, and parents affected by the recession were relocating to other areas, causing disruption to school classrooms as pupils joined and left. Other concerns expressed by public sector organisations tended to relate to changes in funding or policy. For example, an organisation working in healthcare reported that meeting targets set by the Primary Care Trust was deemed so important that it sometimes overrode patient needs, and created a great deal of additional paperwork.

Several public sector organisations had seen changes in the profile of those they were dealing with, and expected this to continue in future. They cited examples such as dealing with an increasingly ageing population, a wider range of clients or a wider range of health issues, treating the long-term ill as well as the terminally ill, or adapting to the changing requirements of their existing clients. Partly as a response to this, several organisations were looking to improve the standard of service that they delivered and widen the range of services offered, both to benefit customers and to assist the organisations themselves in securing funding. The aim for higher standards was also mandated, for example by the Discrimination and Equal Opportunities Acts, which had changed the way some organisations operated.

“Disabled clients are looking for different things now – they are looking for more access to activities, more individual choices. We will be moving towards a service that is entirely based on the needs of individuals – a very personalised and bespoke service.” Public Sector, 50 - 249 employees “We have expanded the services we offer – we now offer a lot more screening services, etc.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees A potential longer term trend identified by public sector organisations was that the local population’s health would be affected through poverty and poor nutrition if the economic environment did not improve. A school had already experienced some problems of this type: “Only seven per cent of my children’s parents are classed as ‘professional’ – we’re generally dealing with low socio-economic status and very high deprivation in this area.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees While recruiting suitably qualified staff emerged as a challenge for almost all employers when prompted, only two employers (one in the public sector and one in social care), when asked about the principal challenges facing their organisations, mentioned recruitment difficulties spontaneously. “Staffing is our biggest issue – to find a selection of well-qualified staff. The quality of applications is generally limited.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees 4.5 Recruitment Difficulties 4.5.1 Hospitality Employers in the hospitality sector tended to have experienced difficulties recruiting staff with the skills they required. The most commonly reported challenge, mentioned by companies of all sizes, was finding people qualified in skilled trades. This usually took a considerable amount of time and companies had to find interim solutions, which they ultimately found to be an unsatisfactory, for example, using contractors for jobs such as carpentry, maintenance and plumbing. Small companies had struggled in particular to find qualified chefs. “There is a general shortage of chefs – it is well known. It is very difficult to find chefs and cooks who are properly trained. They have to live fairly locally due to split shift hours.” Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees For one very large holiday park, the major recruitment difficulty was finding trained managers in the local workforce.

“We have to use recruitment agencies and that person would have to relocate.” Hospitality, over 1000 employees

Small companies also had difficulties recruiting individuals to less skilled roles, such as cleaners and bar staff. While employers of small businesses regarded it as inevitable to have to train people in more advanced skills, they expected applicants to possess basic skills, which many did not.

The view that local job applicants lacked the necessary skills was common to all sizes of employer. Employers were keen to take on people who already possessed the required skills, rather than having to train them, but often found the skills were simply not available. Moreover, even those with the relevant qualifications might not have the appropriate skills or experience. Some employers also voiced concerns about finding people with the right attitude, not only in terms of their approach to dealing with customers but also their honesty and trustworthiness.

“There are just no local people with the experience in these roles. ... One thing we do have in this area is people with poor basic skills.” Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees “The attitude of younger workers is a problem behind our recruitment issues – last year the complex was riddled with internal theft and people calling in sick.” Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees 4.5.2 Social Care Most social care organisations had experienced problems recruiting staff with the necessary skills and experience. Finding qualified nurses, including nursery nurses, was a major problem, particularly for those employers who required specialist skills from their nurses. This could have a negative effect on an organisation’s operation and development, for example, making it difficult for it to create teams of staff with the required skills and preventing it from providing the anticipated breadth and level of service. One solution to this problem was to employ agency nurses, although this incurred additional expense that organisations could ill afford, especially as it could take months to find a suitably qualified employee.

“We can’t find qualified nurses with the palliative care experience and awareness we are looking for.” Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

Employers in the social care sector also found it difficult to recruit individuals in elementary occupations, such as healthcare support workers and care assistants: while there were numerous applicants for these posts, very few – or sometimes none – had relevant experience and qualifications. Employers wanted staff with 'life knowledge' and a responsible approach to customer care but struggled to find applicants with these qualities. Experience was also required, even for low skilled jobs.

“We do need a certain level of expertise and experience in the first place because of the sensitivities of our service.”

Social Care, 10 - 49 employees Employers reported a lack of basic skills, with applicants sometimes lacking literacy, numeracy and customer service skills. They also believed that applicants lacked the motivation to work in the field and there was a perception that people did not want to work with the elderly. Employing qualified staff was essential to some organisations in terms of securing vital funding, as receipt of funding is dependent on having 50% of staff qualified to Level 2 or above. Given the difficulties in recruiting qualified staff, some employers had no option but to recruit under-qualified people and then train them, but this meant that existing staff would have to spend time away from their core activities, which some organisations could ill afford, so this approach did not solve the problem. There was also some evidence that relatively high staff turnover contributed to recruitment problems in the social care industry, because of the predominance of young women in the workforce who were likely to leave to have children at some point in their career. 4.5.3 Engineering Around half of the engineering companies interviewed had experienced recruitment problems, covering a range of occupations. There had also been problems finding higher level employees, including mechanical engineers, draughtsmen and programmers, which had caused severe difficulties. Recruiting process, plant and machine operatives was also a major challenge, with a reported lack of sheet metal workers, machinists, turners, millers and skilled machine operators in the local workforce. Not only was it difficult to recruit people with the requisite skills but also those with relevant experience.

Some organisations had sought to attract skilled workers from elsewhere, but this was an expensive solution. “We have had people coming from outside the area, i.e. from shipbuilding in the North, who have moved to this area but are not willing to drop their salaries." Engineering, 50 - 249 employees Another approach to addressing the issue was for employers to provide training themselves, but this was also expensive and time-consuming. In general, employers preferred to deliver training internally, as the skills needed were often specific to the organisation and specific training was not in ready supply. Some employers had arranged training through external providers, such as local colleges, but did not feel that the courses were of sufficient quality: indeed one employer who enrolled staff on an NVQ at Boston College felt that the course was not up to standard and opted to complete the training on the job.

“There is no training in East Lindsey for this sort of person: they would come from places like the Midlands where there is an engineering base, where training schemes are provided to the standards required." Engineering, fewer than 10 employees Even if employers were able to train staff to the required level, there was a concern that, once trained at the cost of the company, employees would leave to secure better paid positions elsewhere. As a consequence, one company had simply not expanded: “We have to compromise, we don’t expand. This has been ongoing for ten to 15 years. We have tried training people over the years but they tend to leave once trained.” Engineering, fewer than 10 employees Recruitment was perceived to be an issue that would continue to pose problems for employers: even those engineers who were not currently seeking new staff feared that when they did, they would struggle because of the lack of basic education and skills in the area. Looking beyond the local area was not perceived to be a practical option, because the larger towns, where relevant skills were thought to be in greater supply, were deemed too far away to be able to attract potential employees from. 4.5.4 Public Sector Public sector employers also tended to have experienced difficulties recruiting staff. In general there had been a dearth of applications for posts advertised and the few applications received were deemed to be of a poor standard, often from candidates lacking the required skills. This was true of a range of occupations, from professional staff (such as teachers) to elementary staff (cleaners). East Lindsey's rural location was perceived to be a drawback to potential applicants for teaching roles: teacher training in the wider region is limited and one job advertisement for a teaching post placed at the nearest universities had not received a single application. The more remote areas in particular had found it difficult to attract outside applicants, which had taken its toll on existing staff. “The implications of that are that we all cover and have to work even harder.”

Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees Finding teaching assistants with suitable experience was an ongoing problem for one school, while nurses were an issue for a GP’s surgery:

“It is sometimes easier to find a general trained nurse and train them to be a Practice nurse, but that is a huge investment in time and money. And then they will be hugely in demand and the danger is that they will go and get a better paid job somewhere else. We make sure we pay our nurses very well so they are not tempted to leave us!” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees Employers also found it difficult to recruit secretarial and administrative staff, where applicants often lacked the necessary communication skills, as well as sports coaches, leisure attendants and

45 lifeguards, where applicants with the necessary qualifications could not be found. The lack of infrastructure and poor public transport links made it difficult to recruit people to the lowest-skilled jobs. “Because of the distances to travel for just one or two hours’ work, we cannot get either dinner staff or cleaners on single-role contracts.”

Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees Recruiting local school-leavers was not deemed to be a satisfactory option, because posts tended to require specific qualifications or required practical experience in the given field. Even in instances where qualifications or experience were unnecessary, school-leavers available for work were not considered to be of the right calibre: “If they have been educated locally, they will probably have gone to the secondary modern and will not be sufficiently qualified. They might have 5 GCSEs but they will all be Ds and Es and they might not have maths. All the higher-qualified grammar schools kids have left the area.”

Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees 4.6 Training Activity 4.6.1 Apprenticeships It was uncommon for employers to take on apprentices or trainees. This was the case irrespective of organisation size and was largely true of all sectors, although it was slightly more common among employers in the hospitality and engineering sectors. A public sector employer who did not take on apprentices stated this was because they could not guarantee good quality training, or a job at the end of the training. Employers who took on apprentices tended to view it as a necessity, to address their recruitment difficulties. Faced with a dearth of skills and qualifications in the local population employers chose to take on apprentices and train them to the required level. “We need to invest in skills in this area. Because they are not readily available, we have to train in those skills.” Engineering, 50 - 249 employees Employing apprentices also helped companies with their succession planning, to maintain their workforce’s size and capability in future years. They were therefore seen as an investment. Given that they have no experience of working elsewhere, apprentices are thought of by some employers as easier to mould to the specific requirements of their company.

“We had an ageing services team who were coming to retirement age and we had no replacement. We also wanted to skill and mould staff to the way the company does things.”

Hospitality, over 1000 employees “It’s the life blood of the establishment – we think it’s good for staff retention and a good investment.”

Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees Employers tended to recruit apprentices straight from school or college. One notable exception was a hospital which recruited indirectly via Nottingham University: the university recruited them and the hospital then offered them placements. Apprentices were predominantly recruited to fill skilled trade positions, such as plumbers and electricians for large holiday parks, or chefs. In the engineering sector, apprentices were likely to have a technical specialisation and to be working as process or machine operatives. A hospital recruited trainees for a range of roles including nurses, physiotherapists and occupational therapists. All apprentices were recruited to fulfil specific roles within organisations.

All employers taking on apprentices reported that they were working towards a recognised qualification. Most were working towards NVQs, often with the opportunity to progress to higher NVQ levels during their traineeship. There were some instances of apprentices completing BTECs for engineering companies, and professional diplomas or professional nursing registrations for a hospital. Apprenticeships tended to be long-term, typically lasting three to four years, although for some employers the apprenticeships only lasted a year or two. The mode of delivery of training varied widely, although for most employers, apprenticeships involved a mixture of on-the-job and off-the-job training, and might involve one day a week at college for the longer-term apprenticeships. On-the-job training used too much internal resource to be worthwhile for some smaller employers. “Because of the size we are, the trainees go off for training, the training people get on with that side of it and we don’t really have a lot to do with it. It’s just time-consuming, and we’re busy bringing in business.” Engineering, fewer than 10 employees

In general, Further Education Colleges (FECs) such as Lincoln College, Boston College and the Grimsby Institute of Further and Higher Education, were the most popular choice for training apprentices. Provision from local colleges had been effective for several employers, with one hospitality employer reporting themselves to be “very happy” with the training provided. Some organisations used private providers, for example for hospitality training and for training designed to lead to qualifications in social care. Satisfaction was somewhat higher with private provision than with FEC provision. A social care employer used online training from a private

47 provider, and had returned to the same trainer because they had been satisfied with this mode of delivery:

"They were flexible and responsive in how they supported our trainees – learners like submitting their work online, and they can keep track of where they are in their training with their online tracking system." Social Care, 10 - 14 employees Not all experiences of training had been positive, however, and this was particularly true of engineering firms, some of whom had concerns about the quality of training. For one engineering employer, FEC training had been satisfactory but was not sufficiently tailored to the circumstances of their business: “I’m not sure that the structure of the apprenticeship is absolutely perfect for our needs; it’s a generic apprenticeship so it’s never going to suit perfectly what we do.” Engineering, 50 - 249 employees One pub/restaurant was dissatisfied with the training their apprentice chef had received from a local FEC, because there had been insufficient training in the basics of cooking. The employer believed trainers should liaise more with the catering industry to provide better courses. Another employer had found FECs to be very inflexible, and this had prompted them to use a private provider that could offer an approach better tailored to the needs of the organisation. The location of training was an important factor in determining the choice of provider. For employers in hospitality, the main reason for choosing a particular training provider was because they were local and convenient, highlighting the importance of good quality local provision. There was also evidence of a desire to support local colleges. Some employers reported limited local provision or a lack of choice in local apprenticeship training; this disproportionately affected employers in the engineering sector, suggesting that the availability of apprenticeship training in this sector is limited locally. Trainees in this sector were typically young, could not drive and as such needed to use public transport to access training further afield. This could result in an hour’s bus journey each way to get to college, which was felt to be a disincentive for trainees. “There is only the choice of Boston or Lincoln for apprenticeship training. We found Lincoln more professional and we get better results from them, even though they are slightly further away.” Engineering, 50 - 249 employees 4.6.2 Training for staff The vast majority of employers provided training for staff. Those that did not tended to be small employers who felt that their staff were already fully trained or qualified. However, there was evidence that some employers were reluctant to train their staff, believing this would make them more likely to leave their employment. A considerable proportion of staff training was undertaken to fulfil mandatory professional requirements. Generic work-based training such as Health and Safety and First Aid was common

48 across all sectors, although some mandatory training was sector specific. For instance, social care employers enrolled staff on training about changes in legislation such as the introduction of Deprivation of Liberty (DOL) safeguards. The most common objective of training was to ensure that employees’ skills were kept up to date and to maintain existing qualifications. For employers in the engineering sector, training tended to be geared towards specific technical skills, for example updating staff on developments in production techniques and machinery (this was sometimes too specialist to be delivered by an external training provider). Ongoing staff training was considered to be essential in the social care sector, where best practice guidelines are continually being updated. “We have a duty as an employer to improve the skills of our staff to the maximum possibility." Hospitality, over 1000 employees “Things are always changing in medicine and we need to keep abreast.” Social Care, 50 - 249 employees

Updating staff skills and maintaining qualifications was also considered by employers to be an important factor in enhancing the performance of their business and achieving customer satisfaction. Particularly in the hospitality and social care sectors, where staff performance is perceived to be central to delivering customer satisfaction, training was regarded as an investment in the business. Attracting and retaining customers was considered to be particularly important against the backdrop of the current recession, particularly so for social care facilities, which have to contend with intense competition in East Lindsey. "We are constantly wishing to improve the service we give to our residents. We wish as an organisation, to give best care and to do this, we have to skill up our staff." Social Care, 50 - 249 employees "To make sure they [staff] can be as good as they can be and provide the level of service we want.” Hospitality, over 1000 employees A number of employers recognised the wider benefits of training such as enhanced staff motivation and morale.

"It enables them to do their job better, gives job satisfaction and makes employees feel valued. It allows them to broaden their horizons, which makes for better care." Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

"The training gives staff a purpose and motivation for their work and a wider, more diverse range of skills." Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees

Some employers were keen to implement Continual Professional Development for their staff, seeing this as an investment in the future of the business. Some employers saw building on the skills of existing staff as less burdensome and costly than recruiting new, untrained employees. "The more staff that return to employment here the less retraining needs to be done." Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees

The most common qualifications were NVQs, although a number of sector specific professional diplomas and licences were also reported. Most training was to Level 2 or Level 3 standard, although there was a full range from Levels 1 to 5.

Training was taking place at all levels, influenced to an extent by industry sector. Hospitality businesses were more likely to enrol their staff in lower level courses whilst public sector staff were more likely to complete courses at Level 4 and above.

Across the five sectors employers had quite different training needs.  In the social care sector vocational, NVQ-based training was most common as it provided staff with practical, hands on training. NVQ training also helped to secure funding for some employers in this sector (for instance, a small childcare business explained that they would lose government funding if the proportion of their staff trained to Level 2 or above dipped below fifty per cent).

 Engineering employers tended to enrol their staff on generic work-based training such as Health and Safety or Manual Handling, with more specialist, technical skills imparted informally on the job, using the machinery on site.

 Public sector employees were more likely to pursue higher level training such as NVQs, Foundation Degrees and Higher Professional Diplomas (ISRM), although mandatory training such Health and Safety was also common.

 Employers in the hospitality sector had a broad range of training needs including Health and Safety training, NPLQ training for Lifeguards, Food Hygiene (CIEH) and even forklift truck driving

Employers used a combination of on the job and off the job training and this was fairly consistent across the sectors. NVQ courses – which constituted a high proportion of all training – tended to combine on the job and off the job learning. Some training providers gave the option of training on site which employers appreciated as it eliminated transport difficulties. Most employers also conducted internal training, usually work-based training such as Fire Safety or Health and Safety. As previously discussed, some employers in the engineering sector delivered specialist, technical training themselves. Employers used a range of training providers, predominantly FE colleges such as Boston College and private training providers such as First College and Pat Clark Total Training. Public sector and social care employers also received training from charities and national/government bodies such as

Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) and District/County Councils. A few employers also enrolled their skilled, management and/or professional staff on university courses, although these tended to be further afield (Nottingham or Lincoln) and therefore harder to access. Convenience was the main priority for employers across all sectors in choosing a training provider. As discussed later in this report, transport and travel were barriers to training for employers in the region and training delivered on site was considered to be preferable. Quality of training, gauged either through past experience or third party recommendation, was also important in deciding which training provider to use. Cost and availability of funding were most important to employers in the social care sector, particularly those who had been affected by the recession and changes in government policy. A small minority of employers reported a lack of choice in which training providers to use. There was some indication that this may be a particular issue in the engineering sector, as is the case with apprentice training. The vast majority of employers were very satisfied with the training they had received, suggesting that on the whole training in the area is of high quality. Good communication and flexibility in delivery (such as on-site and evening training) were most important drivers of employer satisfaction. Indeed, complaints about specific training providers tended to centre on lack of flexibility, such as making all staff learn at the same pace or not running evening classes. Amongst those who were less satisfied there were also concerns about the cost of training and some employers, particularly smaller employers, found this prohibitive.

"I’ve had good feedback from the team and can see their competencies have risen. I think the level of trainers is good." Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees

"Very happy – they have kept me informed, updated me on progress, have been very sympathetic about any problems and have tried to help and provide flexibility." Hospitality, 10 - 49 employees

"I know I can ring our lecturer and say, “I think we need such and such a thing and I can get it.” We also have a video link from Lincoln and so we can do a session even if we can’t physically get there – we would invite in our nurses and they can watch the session." Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

4.7 Training Provision in the East Lindsey Coastal Zone 4.7.1 Employer Perceptions of Training Provision in the Coastal Zone Employer perceptions of training provision in East Lindsey were mixed. Employers tended to report that they were satisfied with the level and type of provision currently available but there were a few instances of dissatisfaction with the training provided or where local provision was unable to meet their needs.

There was evidence that employers believed training provision in the area to be adequate and most had been able to meet their training needs in the last two years. Some employers reported that they did not have to seek out training because they were regularly contacted by providers operating in the area. “I get quite a few phone calls from people offering training. ... They offer me government funded training for young people." Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees

Employers in all sectors were broadly satisfied with the amount and content of training on offer. However, some felt that certain sectors were better provided for than others due to the nature of the local economy. The importance of tourism to the local economy meant that there was perceived to be a wealth of hospitality training in the area. As such, hospitality employers felt themselves to be well provided for but some employers in other sectors felt that the emphasis on tourism and hospitality training was too great. This was felt most acutely by businesses in the engineering sector, some of which reported having to go further afield for training or deliver training themselves because it was not available locally. “I have always found what I'm looking for.” Hospitality, 10 - 49 employees

“We are quite blessed here to have a number of courses that are specific to the tourism sector, and that is due to the location.” Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees

“The disadvantage in East Lindsey [is that training] is leisure and tourism biased – there is clearly little training in leisure and tourism that will benefit us! This is not an engineering area... we are the last engineering company in East Lindsey of any size.” Engineering, 50 - 249 employees

Employers who were dissatisfied with provision in the area tended to have more specific training needs. For example, one GP surgery reported that the nearest provider offering the higher level Institute of Leadership and Management (ILM) qualification was located in Birmingham. Some engineering employers also had specialist training needs that could not be met by providers in the area, but most chose to deliver internal training rather than search for providers further afield.

The training received was generally perceived to be of high quality. However, one hospitality employer felt that the catering NVQ course completed by their staff had been pitched too high and commented that colleges should work more closely with local catering establishments to devise their courses. By and large training provision in the wider Lincolnshire area was perceived to be adequate by those who had accessed it, although there was evidence that employers were unwilling or unable to consider training outside their immediate area. Some gaps in training provision were identified, however, specifically in engineering and nursing. Engineering companies tended to respond by

52 providing internal training for staff, whilst nurses tended to be trained further afield, for example taking courses at Nottingham University.

"We have never needed to access anything outside East Lindsey." Social Care, 10 - 14 employees

"We wouldn't go further afield as it's not practical.” Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

Some employers, although satisfied with the amount and content of training available, had been unable to access it due to cost or lack of available funding. On-site training was commonly used to bring down costs but this was only effective if a large enough number of staff needed training. “The only thing about training providers is that the prices can be quite extortionate: £300 for a half day session when we only have 6 staff doing it is quite difficult.” Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

“Training availability seems to be very much based on what funding you can access. For instance, First College are very eager to support us in training but it seems to be very difficult to access support funding for further qualifications for qualified staff.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

“Sometimes I will see training advertised and I will ring up but find I can't get the funding.” Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

Transport and travel had a major impact both on employers’ likelihood to train and their choice of provider. Proximity of training location was regarded as important because it saves on travel time and costs, and reduces the amount of time staff must be released for. Staff sometimes had to foot the bill for travelling to training themselves or complete it in their own time, so local training providers were preferred.

"The nearer, the better." Engineering, 50 - 249 employees

"Anything based in East Lindsey would obviously save us money in respect of travel and overnight accommodation and that would be good." Hospitality, 50 - 249 employees

Travel and transport considerations affected organisations of all sizes and across all sectors to a greater or lesser extent, although there were some notable variations. Transport difficulties had the greatest impact on smaller employers and the travel costs involved for trainees were more likely to prove prohibitive to providing training. For some employers, and especially those in the engineering sector, distance to training had an effect on their decisions but was not a driving factor in choice of provision. Distance had little or no effect for the larger holiday camps, as they tended to arrange training internally, with the help of their parent companies.

"Distance affects us a great deal – we can't afford to send them and the travel links are so poor they need a car." Hospitality, fewer than 10 employees

"If the staff have to travel it's more difficult. Some of our staff work part time and they don't want to spend time travelling and paying for petrol. There is an attitude amongst staff that if we want them to be good at what they do, then we should provide it on site." Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

"The right training is most important and distance is secondary." Engineering, 50 - 249 employees

"Distance is always an issue but if we need to send someone further afield then we will... It doesn't inhibit our training.” Hospitality, 10 - 49 employees

It was not only the need to travel long distances to training that discouraged some employers and employees from seeking training. Even attending training in East Lindsey could be problematic because, although the location was more convenient in terms of geographical distance, training in the area could be difficult to reach due to the poor road infrastructure and lack of public transport. "[The disadvantages of training in East Lindsey are the] rural location, lack of transport and infrastructure." Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

The types of training affected by transport issues ranged from NVQ training through to university- based training and management training. It had a disproportionate effect on lower-paid staff like care workers, nurses and teaching assistants, who were less likely to own a car or to be able to afford public transport costs. Distance to training also affected decisions as to whether to provide training to senior and managerial staff, as they often wished to attend events further afield. Some employers opted to provide on-site training – delivered either by internal staff or by an external training provider visiting the employer’s site – in order to circumvent the difficulties associated with travelling to attend external training. Employers regarded internal training as cost effective because it cut down on fees and time spent away from the workplace. A few employers also thought that the dynamic between trainer and learner benefited from the two having a pre-existing relationship. "I think because we know the lecturer, it makes for more productive Q & A sessions." Social Care, 10 - 49 employees

Perhaps most importantly, internal training could be tailored to meet the precise needs of an organisation and its staff, and could be delivered in a more flexible manner. This tailored approach

54 was particularly important for businesses in the engineering sector, many of which work with specialist equipment that existing staff are best placed to instruct on.

"You can focus it on what you want to achieve so it meets the needs of those who have requested it or are deemed to need it." Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

“It is easy to arrange it on site – we can fit it in around the business as and when it is required and it is cost effective.” Hospitality, over 1000 employees

"In house on-the-job training on the machines is convenient, cost effective and specific to our requirements." Engineering, 10 - 49 employees

Employers also acknowledged that there were disadvantages to internal training, such as the fact that it tended to commit considerable staff time and resource. The preparation required for internal training and the fact that staff had to be released from their usual role to attend meant that internal training was not always the most cost-effective solution. This was dependent to an extent on how many staff were being trained and it was sometimes more cost-effective to enrol one or two members of staff on an external training course.

"The problem is that if we did a group session here and brought in 12 of our staff to do it, we would have to close down a centre for the day." Public Sector, 50 - 249 employees

Some employers were concerned that training delivered by existing staff lack scrutiny or objectivity in their assessments and that staff might be less responsive to a trainer with whom they had a pre- existing relationship. Staff trained internally also missed out on the opportunity to meet and share best practice with people from other businesses and organisations. “Sometimes it could be that I am too closely involved and some training might be better coming from an outsider – especially where it‘s specialist knowledge required.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

"You don't always get the response from staff if they are receiving training from a colleague that they see all day or who is usually giving them orders etc." Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

4.7.2 Appetite for Further Training in East Lindsey’s Coastal Zone Employers were divided as to whether they would provide more training for their staff if there were more available in the local area. Some felt that additional training provision would be unnecessary, as they were already able to meet their needs. However, there was some indication that employers

55 currently able to meet their needs would switch to a more local provider if one were available, because this would be more convenient and cost effective.

"[We could access] more Moving and Handling and First Aid as well as Protection of Vulnerable Adults and Dementia Care. ... It isn’t that we can’t access any of these but it would just be easier if it was more local." Social Care, 50 - 249 employees

Any additional training sought would be used to substitute or support current provision, that is, employers would not seek to provide training of a different nature or level. There was some indication of demand for higher level training, linked to the dearth of available training in this area already identified: demand for additional training was highest in areas already identified as weak in terms of current provision, such as the engineering sector.

Those who would consider accessing new or additional training tended to report that they would continue to use some or all of their current providers. However, there was evidence that some employers, whilst not providing more training overall, would access more local training in lieu of training further afield. There was some, albeit limited, evidence that employers would seek to provide training over and above that already offered. Employers in the social care sector were most likely to claim they would access extensive additional training, or as much as they could. However, employers in this sector were also more likely to report financial difficulties in providing training and to look for funded training, suggesting that this enthusiasm might be tempered by cost considerations. One engineering employer reported that they would take on an apprentice if the training were available, amounting to a significant training commitment. "As much as we could – we would definitely do more." Social Care, 50 - 249 employees

"From my perspective as a manager, if there was local training on a range of topics that were relevant to us, I would really encourage my staff to do it and would promise time, budgets and transport to do it. Especially if it was in Louth – because it would greatly enhance morale." Social Care, 50 - 249 employees

Employers that would engage in additional training were split between those looking for vocational courses such as NVQs and those seeking non-vocational training. NVQ courses sought included Care, Manufacturing Operations, IT, Retail and Food Hygiene. Employers in the social care sector tended to look for more specific vocational courses such as training in Dementia Care, Infection Control and Protection of Vulnerable Adults. There was high demand for mandatory Health and Safety training, particularly amongst hospitality employers. Other non-vocational training such as Manual Handling and First Aid would also be welcomed by employers across a range of sectors.

“I would like to see more provision for First Aid Training, Food Hygiene, Manual Handling.” Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

"We would like a local college in Louth that both our staff and our clients could access for training – NVQs, community support, basic diplomas, basic skills, IT skills." Public Sector, 50 - 249 employees

There was also high demand for more training in communication and interpersonal skills, linked to the perceived dearth of these qualities in the local population. Several public sector employers were keen to see more short courses that, whilst not necessarily accredited, provided training in soft skills or general IT skills. These could also help to raise staff morale. “Continuing soft skills development: I would like to do more customer care training definitely and also telephone skills." Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

In terms of the amount of additional training that they would deliver if there were more or better local provision, most employers’ appetites were relatively limited, generally stretching to one or two extra days of training a year. "I would probably send everyone for extra soft skills workshops a couple of times a year. We are probably only talking a half day twice a year." Public Sector, 10 - 49 employees

4.8 The Supply Side A representative from a college located outside the coastal strip saw that the demand for training from this area as particularly low, indicating that to serve the area in appropriate manner requires substantial investment from the provider to establish partnerships with employers and build up demand from individuals. Representatives from other training providers with more local area information provided a more detailed picture. One interviewee mentioned that although demand for some professional qualifications (management, accountant technicians) was stable or slowly increasing, demand for ‘traditional’ areas such as hospitality, early years and business administration were either static or declining. The interviewee attributed the decreasing number of enrolments (“down to levels never seen before”) to the effect of the economic recession which caused a reduction in the number of people being recruited and suggested that employers cannot afford to provide training at the moment. The demand for training is very much influenced by the needs of local employers, and in the coastal area the economy is oriented toward the services industries. As mentioned by one of the stakeholders contacted, since the economy of the area is partly hospitality based – hotels, guesthouses, places to eat (fish and chips houses) – the type of training employers require include food hygiene certificates, personal licence certificates, first aid, and such short courses. From the individual’s point of view, interviewees mentioned that there is also demand for some training in the trade skills (plumbing, construction), hair and beauty, retail, health and social care.

Employers in the coastal strip tend to be small and were referred to as ‘one-man bands’ or businesses with less than five employees. Thus, education in the area needs to be flexible and to

57 recognise the particular needs of these employers with limited time and funds to spend in training. One of the interviewees mentioned that, to increase employer participation in training, it was necessary support them financially and added that programmes like Train to Gain were successful in encouraging training uptake. Furthermore, another provider agreed that funding is an important issue since the demand for training “is still there with individuals” but it is difficult for employers to provide training due to their size and often the seasonal nature of their business. Another factor that affects employers’ uptake of training is the quality of the training on offer. As one interviewee mentioned, training providers have to have a good and sensible offer, a good provision, be a quality provider in their environment and offer the best training for the employer’s and government’s investment. To achieve this it is important that providers build strong relationships with employers. It was also highlighted that there is a need to encourage employers to talk to each other in a structured way and to ‘map out’ what is required by their industry, and then to deliver it. Providers indicated that in the past training initiatives which seemed like a viable proposition tended to be poorly subscribed in practice eventually leading to the withdrawal of courses. One interviewee believed that although there is no shortage of training initiatives going on in the coastal strip, there is room to expand and grow by, for example, increasing the communication among, and coordination of, existing training providers. Apprenticeships and placements were also seen as an area for future development but it was recognised that lack of funding for these programmes discourages employers’ participation. In relationship to this, another interviewee mentioned that improved links with employers were needed to increase the provision of apprenticeships – and that this would in turn enhance the position and reputation in different ways. There was general agreement with the idea that attracting new employers to the area would help to increase the demand for training, but few of the stakeholders contacted believed this would be easy to achieve. Interviewees indicated that manufacturing and construction firms, for example, could increase the training and development needs of the area but added that that was an unlikely scenario – indeed, there had been a significant loss of manufacturing employment over the past two years. It was also recognised that the geography and demographics of the coastal strip (being coastal as well as rural) are limitations to attracting new businesses.

It was also mentioned that there were significant costs attached to developing relationships with employers because so many of them were SMEs with a limited demand for training. Communicating to employers the range of training available to them tended to generate interest from employers, but it required a good many employers to be contacted. This can be contrasted with more urban centres with many large employers where a single employer can generate a substantial volume of demand for training. 4.9 Conclusion The interviews with employers and other key stakeholders revealed the following: i. relatively high levels of skill shortages across all occupations;

ii. limited levels of training provision by employers; iii. some interest in raising levels of employment if training provision was more local but this would also displace some existing activities; iv. a recognition that distances which people had to travel to access some training was costly for the employer, sometimes the trainee, and for the agencies which were promoting training activity; v. a degree of caution from some training providers about increasing provision in certain courses.

The next chapter looks at the overall volume of skills supply in detail.

5: The Supply of Skills in East Lindsey 5.1 Introduction The aim of this chapter is to provide a picture of the characteristics of the population of East Lindsey, in terms of their skills and qualifications. It is also concerned with the types of qualification which they are studying for. Within the East Lindsey district, the training behaviour of people living in the Coastal Action Zone is also distinguished. The chapter is largely based on data taken from general sources on the labour market such as the Annual Population Survey and the Individual Learner Record. 5.2 Population Trends and Labour Market Participation Figure 5.1 presents trends in the population of individual age groups within the broad working age range – from 15 to 64 – over the period from 1981 to 2008 for East Lindsey as a whole. This demonstrates how the population of the district has been ageing over time, as a large age cohort of people born just after the Second World War (now aged 60 to 64) ages over time, but is also reinforced by net in-migration (the cohort is about 50 per cent larger than the corresponding age group 20 years ago). There has been growth in most age groups over the period, but the number of people in the younger economically active age groups declined during the 1990s and the number of people aged from 25 to 34 declined after 2000 (with a recent rebound). In 2008, the number of people in this age group was a quarter smaller than in 1992. However, the number of people aged 15-19 has increased from its low point in the mid-1990s and the number of people aged in their twenties is also increasing strongly again. Overall, the working age population increased by 14 per cent between 1992 and 2008, while the population aged 16-24 increased by 6 per cent. However, the population as a whole increased by 18 per cent over the same period and the share of people of working age in the total population decreased from 57.4 per cent in 1992 to 55.5 per cent in 2008. The working population aged rapidly over this period, with the number of people aged between 50 and 64 increasing by 50 per cent.

Males are more likely than women to be active in the labour market (Table 5.1). While the percentage of women economically active increases with age until they reach their fifties, the pattern for men is more complex. The percentage of 16-19 year olds in the labour force is 92.9 per cent and the employment rate for this age group is 78.6 per cent. Both the economic activity and employment rate is lowest for men aged 50 to 64, but there is also a decline in economic activity for men aged 25-34. Young women are less likely than young men to be economically active, and much less likely than young men to be employed. The implication is that young women living in the district stay in education for longer than young men. Female economic activity and employment rates increase with age up to the age of 50, then decline for women aged 50 to 59. Economic activity and employment rates are above the regional and Great Britain averages for men, while for women both rates are above the Great Britain average but lower than the average for the East Midlands.

Figure 5.1: Population trends in East Lindsey from 1981 to 2008

14,000

12,000

10,000 Aged 15 - 19 years Aged 20 - 24 years Aged 25 - 29 years 8,000 Aged 30 - 34 years Aged 35 - 39 years Aged 40 - 44 years Aged 45 - 49 years 6,000 Aged 50 - 54 years Aged 55 - 59 years Aged 60 - 64 years 4,000

2,000

0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: ONS annual mid-year population estimates

Table 5.1: Economic activity and employment rates by age and gender, East Lindsey 2008

Age group Economic activity rate Employment rate All People Males Females All People Males Females Working age 80.8 86.2 74.6 76.9 81.8 71.2 Aged 16-19 69.4 92.9 50.0 58.1 78.6 41.2 Aged 20-24 84.8 100.0 68.8 80.3 100.0 59.4 Aged 25-34 79.5 87.3 72.6 79.5 87.3 72.6 Aged 35-49 89.0 93.8 84.3 84.6 90.3 79.1 Aged 50-Pensionable Age 77.1 78.6 74.8 73.4 72.5 74.8 Working age, East Midlands 80.8 84.5 76.6 75.9 79.2 72.3 Working age, Great Britain 78.8 83.2 74.0 74.2 78.0 69.9 Source: Annual Population Survey, January to December 2008 The occupational structure of employment in the district is strongly differentiated by gender (Table 5.2). For men, the largest occupational categories in 2005 were skilled trades, managers and senior officials (presumably including farmers) and semi- and un-skilled workers (SOC major groups 8 and 9). While skilled trades and semi-skilled manual occupations declined by 2008, the percentage of jobs in professional and elementary occupations both increased for men (but the percentage in associate professional and technical occupations declined steadily over the period). Manual

61 employment remained more important in East Lindsey than for the East Midlands as a whole or for Great Britain. For women, administrative and secretarial, elementary, personal service, associate professional and sales & customer service occupations were largest in 2005. The percentage of women working as managers and senior officials increased strongly by 2008, but the other large occupational categories were similar to 2005, and the percentage working in elementary occupations increased slightly relative to 2005. Women were less well represented in professional or associate professional occupations and were more likely to work in personal service occupations than the regional or national average in 2008. However, there is great annual volatility in APS data at the local scale and thus not too much significance should be attached to the much higher percentage working as managers than in the region or nation as a whole.

Table 5.2: East Lindsey - occupational breakdown of males and females, 2005-8 (percentage of all in employment) East Midlands Great Britain SOC 2000 major group 2005 2008 2008 2008 Males 1: managers and senior officials 18.7 13.4 18.9 19.1 2: professional occupations 5.0 12.2 12.5 13.8 3: associate prof & tech occupations 10.6 7.3 11.3 13.4 4: administrative & secretarial 1.9 8.0 3.7 4.5 5: skilled trades occupations 31.9 26.6 20.6 18.5 6: personal service occupations 1.0 ! 2.2 2.4 7: sales & customer service occupations 3.3 ! 4.4 4.7 8: process, plant & machine operatives 12.5 6.4 13.0 11.4 9: elementary occupations 15.1 23.1 13.1 11.8 Females 1: managers and senior officials 5.6 19.9 11.4 11.6 2: professional occupations 10.1 4.8 9.8 12.1 3: associate prof & tech occupations 13.8 8.5 13.4 15.9 4: administrative & secretarial 21.2 20.0 19.2 19.5 5: skilled trades occupations 1.3 ! 1.8 1.8 6: personal service occupations 15.1 17.5 15.6 14.9 7: sales & customer service occupations 12.9 8.9 11.9 10.9 8: process, plant & machine operatives 4.1 3.6 3.5 2.0 9: elementary occupations 16.0 16.7 13.0 10.9 Source: Annual Population Survey. Note: “!” indicates percentage unreliable because of small sample. Thus, manual occupations are still an important source of work opportunities for East Lindsey residents, with half of men and a fifth of women in such jobs. The shift of employment to managerial and professional occupations is much less evident in East Lindsey than elsewhere, presumably because in a small economy these shifts can be disrupted by closures or relocations of individual establishments.

The highest qualifications held by the population in 2008 are summarised in Table 5.3. Men are slightly more likely than women to have higher level qualifications, while women are much more likely to have no qualifications, NVQ level 1 or NVQ level 3 qualifications. Amongst 16-19 year olds, the percentage with no qualifications was too small to be reliable and 40.7 per cent had NVQ level 2 qualifications. Amongst 20-24 year olds, the largest category is “Other”. For 25-29 year olds, the largest category is NVQ level 3, but a quarter have no qualifications. While half of 30-39 year olds have NVQ level qualifications of level 3 or above, nearly two-thirds of 40-49 year olds have a highest qualification no higher than NVQ level 2. The percentage with trade apprenticeships was too small to be statistically reliable for all groups except men and people aged over 50, in which age group over a quarter have a qualification of NVQ level 4 or above (which might result from in-migrants being better qualified).

Table 5.3: Highest qualification level of the population of East Lindsey, 2008 (percentage of sub-group population) Population sub- None NVQ 1 NVQ 2 Trade NVQ 3 NVQ 4+ Other group Apprenticeship All aged 16-59/64 13.0 16.3 18.1 3.1 18.7 19.0 11.5 (Working Age) Males aged 16-64 10.6 13.5 17.8 5.0 16.8 21.4 14.2 Females aged 16-59 16.0 19.6 18.5 ! 20.7 16.3 8.0 Aged 16-19 ! 28.8 40.7 ! 23.7 ! ! Aged 20-24 ! 24.5 ! ! ! 22.6 30.2 Aged 25-29 25.0 ! 25.0 ! 19.6 30.4 ! Aged 30-39 13.1 7.4 17.6 ! 30.1 19.9 11.9 Aged 40-49 13.1 34.5 18.6 ! 13.8 6.2 13.8 Aged 50-59/64 15.7 10.6 14.6 4.7 17.2 27.0 10.2 WA, East Midlands 13.2 15.7 16.6 4.6 15.9 25.4 8.8 WA, Great Britain 12.4 13.7 16.0 4.3 15.9 29.0 8.7 Source: Annual Population Survey. Note: “!” indicates percentage unreliable because of small sample.

Figure 5.2 provides a different perspective on qualifications: the percentage of the working age population qualified to a given level or above. From this is it clear that the population of East Lindsey is less well qualified than that of the region as a whole or Great Britain. The differential is particularly great for NVQ Level 3 and above. People in East Lindsey are more likely than average to have “no” or “other” qualifications, and are less likely to be qualified to NVQ Level 4 or above than people in the East Midlands as a whole or Great Britain.

Figure 5.2 Percentage of working age population qualified to a given level or above 2008: East Lindsey compared with the East Midlands and Great Britain

78.9 80 78.1 75.5

70 65.2 62.4 59 60

NVQ4 and above 50 47 NVQ3 and above 43.5 NVQ2 and above NVQ1 and above 39.3 40 Other qualifications No qualifications

29 30

25.4 % of % working resident population age

19.1 20 13.1 13.2 11.4 12.4 8.8 10 8.7

0 East Lindsey East Midlands Great Britain

Source: APS Indicators of the educational performance of people living in East Lindsey are compared with the East Midlands as a whole and England in Table 5.4. The achievements of school children at Key Stage 2 seems to be poorer in East Lindsey than for either the East Midlands as a whole or England, while performance in GCSE examinations at Key Stage 4 is marginally poorer on most indicators, particularly in science subjects. On the other hand, the GCSE score per pupil is just above the regional and England averages. However, A/AS level students in East Lindsey perform better than the average for the region and England, in terms of the percentage of both males and females achieving 2 or more passes. The differential is greater for males than females, while the gender differential (in favour of females) is narrower in East Lindsey than for either the East Midlands GOR or England. Therefore, it seems that relative examination performance improves with increasing age in East Lindsey.

Table 5.4: Educational performance in East Lindsey, 2007/8

Indicator East East England Lindsey Midlands Key Stage 2 results: Pupils Achieving Level 4+; in English 78 80 80 Pupils Achieving Level 4+; in Mathematics 77 79 79 Pupils Achieving Level 4+; in Science 87 89 88 Pupils Achieving Level 4+; in both English and Mathematics 70 73 72 Average Point Score of Pupils Eligible for KS2 Assessment 27.5 27.7 27.9 GCSE and Equivalent Results: All Pupils at the End of KS4 Achieving 5+ A* - C 68.4 68.9 69.8 All Pupils at the End of KS4 Achieving 5+ A* - G 93.7 93.5 93.5 All Pupils at the End of KS4 Achieving 5+ A* - C Including English and 53.4 49.9 50.7 Mathematics All Pupils at the End of KS4 Achieving 5+ A* - G Including English and 91.4 91.7 92 Mathematics All Pupils at the End of KS4 Achieving 2+ A* - C in Science Subjects 51.6 55.9 54 Average GCSE and Equivalent Point Score Per Pupil at the End of KS4 419.7 417.9 418.9 Average Capped GCSE and Equivalent Point Score Per Pupil at the End 315.5 316.3 318.4 of KS4 GCE A and AS level results: Average Level 3 QCA Point Score Per Student, 2007/8 728.4 727 721.3 Average Level 3 QCA Point Score Per Entry; All 2007/8 207.9 202.6 205.8 Average Level 3 QCA Point Score Per Male Student 2007/8 695.6 703.2 697.2 Average Level 3 QCA Point Score Per Entry; Male 2007/8 202.1 197.9 201.1 Average Level 3 QCA Point Score Per Female Student 2007/8 755.3 747.3 742 Average Level 3 QCA Point Score Per Entry; Female 2007/8 212.5 206.5 209.7 Percentage of male students achieving 2 or more passes of A Level 97.7 92.6 93.6 equivalent standard 2007/8 Percentage of female students achieving 2 or more passes of A Level 98.7 95.1 95.7 equivalent standard 2007/8

Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families (via Neighbourhood Statistics).

5.3 Participation in Training The Annual Population Survey includes two indicators of participation in training – participation in work-related training within the last 4 weeks and within the last 13 weeks. Overall, the percentage of people participating in work-related training in the last month is lower in East Lindsey than either the East Midlands region as a whole or Great Britain (Table 5.5). In this the district differs from the region as the regional percentage of people engaging in training is above the Great Britain average. In 2008, the percentage of both men and women who received job-related training in the last month was much lower than the regional and British average, and unlike the region and Great Britain, women were less likely than men to have engaged in training. People with NVQ level 3 qualifications were half as likely to participate in training during the last 4 weeks than the average person in the region or Great Britain, but the differential was much closer for people with NVQ level 4 qualifications or above. The differential in training was also wider than average for people aged over 25. However, if the percentage of people who have received job-related training in the last 13 weeks is examined, the picture is rather different. The percentages participating are very close to the regional and British averages, and those with NVQ 3 or 4 and above as their highest qualifications are more likely than average to have received training during the last 13 weeks.

Table 5.5: East Lindsey – participation in job-related training, 2008 East Lindsey East Midlands Great Britain Received job related training in last 4 weeks Working age people 6.9 10.7 10.2 Working age males 7.0 9.7 9.4 Working age females 6.6 11.9 11.2 Aged 25 to retirement 6.5 10.5 10.0 NVQ Level 4 18.9 19.7 18.9 NVQ level 3 6.5 11.9 11.2 Received job related training in last 13 weeks Working age people 21.9 20.2 20.2 Working age males 21.6 18.9 18.8 Working age females 22.1 21.6 21.8 Aged 25 to retirement 22.4 20.5 20.7 NVQ Level 4 41.8 37.7 37.2 NVQ level 3 24.9 22.1 22.3

Source: Annual Population Survey.

Data from the Individual Learner Record provides an alternative perspective on learning. Data on all kinds of learning (learner responsive, employer responsive, adult supported learning, ESF, University for Industry, etc.) was aggregated from the ILR to calculate the total number of people engaged in learning, expressed as a percentage of the population for East Lindsey and the Coastal Action Zone, and compared with England as a whole and other areas similar to East Lindsey.

The comparative areas are taken from the Office for National Statistics’ classification of local authorities, based on data from the 2001 Census of Population. This exercise revealed that (on the basis of a bundle of socio-economic indicators) North Norfolk is the local authority district (across the whole UK) most similar to East Lindsey. The classification exercise divided the c.430 local authority districts in the UK into 30 similar groups. East Lindsey falls into the “Coastal and Countryside A” group. This is therefore also used as a comparator in the subsequent analysis.

Figure 5.3 demonstrates that participation in learning declines more or less steadily with advancing age for both males and females in East Lindsey. Women are slightly more likely than men to take part in learning and there is evidence of women in their late thirties and forties returning to learn while the decline in the percentage engaged in learning is steadier for men. There is a faster decline in the percentage in education between the 15-19 and 20-24 year age group for men than women. Figure 5.4 presents a similar pattern for the coastal zone, but the percentage participating in learning is slightly higher for both men and women throughout the age range.

Figure 5.3: Participation by age and gender in East Lindsey

East Lindsey: Learning participation by age

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 Female Male

20.0 % of % population

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ all aged 15+

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008

Figure 5.4: Participation by age and gender in the Coastal Action Zone

Coastal Action Zone: Learning participation by age

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 Female Male

20.0 % of % population

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ all aged 15+

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008 This pattern is similar to the average pattern for England as a whole (Figure 5.5), but it is striking that the percentage of 15-19 year olds learning is well below the England average and that decline in learning participation between the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups is much greater in England. In England as a whole, males are more likely than females to be participating in learning in the 15-19 age group, though the female-male differential is reversed for people aged 20-24 and older. However, the decline in participation with increasing age is much less steep in England as a whole than in East Lindsey (this decline in participation in the younger age groups appears to be greater for larger urban areas and less for more rural areas – see Figures 5.8 and 5.9.) People in their twenties are much more likely to be engaged in this kind of learning in East Lindsey than in England as a whole, but on the other hand, the negative differential in learning is particularly marked in the older age groups. The pattern for East Lindsey is more similar to that for local authority districts which tend to share its socio-economic characteristics. Figure 5.6 presents the pattern of participation in learning by age and gender for the “Coastal and Countryside – A” subgroup of the ONS 2001 classification of local authority districts, of which East Lindsey is a member. This contains other coastal districts across England, a number of remoter rural areas in northern England and rural areas of mid Wales. However, people aged 15-19 were much more likely to be participating in learning in other rural areas than in East Lindsey, and the average for this cluster is similar to that for all of England. The decline in participation for people aged in their twenties is much less marked than for England but greater than for East Lindsey. The fall-off in participation with increasing age follows a similar trend to East Lindsey, but participation rates are higher.

Figure 5.5: Participation by age and gender in England as a whole

England: Learning participation by age

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 Female Male

20.0 % of % population

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ all aged 15+

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008

Figure 5.6: Participation by age and gender in areas similar to East Lindsey

"Coastal and Countryside - A": Learning participation by age

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 Female Male

20.0 % of % population

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ all aged 15+

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008

Figure 5.7 focuses in on a single coastal, rural and fairly isolated local authority district which might be comparable with East Lindsey – North Norfolk. While this district has a similar overall rate of participation and shares the lower rate of male participation across the age range with East Lindsey, the age-specific profile of participation is much more similar to England as a whole.

To summarise, except for people in their twenties, people in East Lindsey are less likely than people elsewhere in England or people in similar rural areas to participate in learning. The fall-off in participation with increasing age is typical of rural areas, but East Lindsey is also distinctive in the lower rate of participation in learning of men, particularly in the 15-19 year old age range.

Figure 5.7: Participation by age and gender in North Norfolk

North Norfolk: Learning participation by age

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 Female Male

20.0 % of % population

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ all aged 15+

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008

Figure 5.8: Male learning participation Figure 5.9: Female learning participation rates by level of the DEFRA urban-rural rates by level of the DEFRA urban-rural classification classification

70.0 70.0

60.0 60.0

50.0 50.0

40.0 40.0 16-18 16-18 19-24 19-24 25+ 25+ Total Total

30.0 30.0

% of % learning in females of % learning in females

20.0 20.0

10.0 10.0

0.0 0.0 Major Urban Large Urban Other Urban Significant Rural Rural-50 Rural-80 Total Major Urban Large Urban Other Urban Significant Rural Rural-50 Rural-80 Total Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008 Rates of participation in learning within East Lindsey were calculated by expressing the number of learners classified by age and gender as a percentage of the estimated 2007 population of each ward in East Lindsey (Table 5.6). Participation rates tended to be highest in the northern part of the district near Grimsby, Louth, Horncastle, Mablethorpe and Skegness, and there was also a west-east differential in participation rates (Figures 5.10 and 5.11). Rates tended to be higher for females than for males.

Figure 5.10: Male ward-level participation Figure 5.11: Female ward-level rates participation rates Sou

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008

Table 5.6: Percentage of ward population participating in training, 2008/9 Electoral ward Female Male Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged 16-18 19-24 25+ 16+ 16-18 19-24 25+ 16+ Alford 67.7 29.1 6.4 17.8 56.6 14.4 5.3 12.2 Binbrook 60.4 34.4 5.7 14.4 51.4 13.7 3.4 7.7 Burgh le Marsh 63.0 26.7 7.4 18.4 37.4 19.8 4.2 9.3 Chapel St Leonards 68.7 34.4 6.0 17.8 65.4 20.2 5.6 12.7 Coningsby and Tattershall 70.1 24.4 8.7 18.3 53.1 11.8 6.9 12.0 Croft 61.3 31.3 6.5 14.1 62.7 10.8 4.3 9.9 Frithville 59.3 31.1 5.8 13.6 49.5 19.3 5.1 11.1 Grimoldby 55.4 38.0 8.0 18.3 58.6 28.3 5.2 13.9 Halton Holegate 43.3 39.9 7.6 19.0 38.9 15.7 2.8 8.2 Holton le Clay 76.7 21.1 11.2 21.0 68.8 28.7 7.6 16.6 Horncastle 71.1 36.6 9.3 22.7 59.3 28.8 8.6 17.1 Hundleby 52.0 17.7 5.8 11.8 38.1 21.7 4.2 9.0 Ingoldmells 48.9 42.1 9.6 23.4 54.6 51.7 9.7 20.3 Legbourne 43.3 19.1 4.8 10.9 59.8 14.1 2.7 7.4 Ludford 30.3 16.8 6.1 11.3 19.6 23.0 3.6 7.3 Mablethorpe Central 53.6 28.3 7.4 19.6 69.8 15.8 7.0 16.5 Mablethorpe East 76.5 42.4 9.2 25.8 58.6 33.8 8.0 17.5 Mablethorpe North 127.6 42.0 8.1 26.3 75.1 18.5 7.3 16.6 Mareham le Fen 32.3 18.8 6.9 14.1 79.9 9.9 3.6 10.5 Marshchapel 42.0 35.3 6.1 14.1 32.7 21.8 4.8 10.0 North Holme 59.2 21.6 8.4 17.7 59.2 20.5 6.6 13.0 North Somercotes 62.7 27.8 5.7 15.0 33.4 18.2 4.1 9.6 North Thoresby 49.8 32.8 11.3 23.8 63.6 14.4 8.3 15.4 Priory 30.7 26.0 10.4 19.7 43.2 17.7 7.2 12.6 Roughton 57.5 24.8 4.1 11.6 43.3 4.8 3.5 8.1 St Clement's 66.0 33.4 8.2 19.6 61.2 18.2 6.9 14.1 St James' 60.4 29.8 11.5 22.3 63.4 24.2 9.2 15.4 St Margaret's 45.4 31.5 9.6 19.5 48.9 20.9 5.9 12.4 St Mary's 49.6 17.0 8.1 17.2 36.7 20.0 4.6 9.7 St Michael's 44.8 24.7 9.8 19.1 41.3 21.3 5.1 10.6 Scarbrough 42.5 27.9 11.1 21.6 69.1 23.2 10.7 18.3 Seacroft 43.5 23.7 8.6 18.9 42.4 19.2 7.7 14.4 Sibsey 31.8 17.7 6.1 12.6 41.2 3.1 3.0 6.3 Skidbrooke with Saltfleet 69.7 20.9 5.6 14.4 64.9 28.8 3.6 11.8 Haven

Table 5.6 (continued): Percentage of ward population participating in training, 2008/9 Electoral ward Female Male Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged 16-18 19-24 25+ 16+ 16-18 19-24 25+ 16+ Spilsby 62.7 17.5 8.6 18.5 67.0 21.9 7.8 15.1 Stickney 47.0 19.0 6.0 12.8 50.8 17.0 4.6 10.5 Sutton on Sea North 29.4 22.0 5.2 15.5 70.7 10.8 3.9 11.6 Sutton on Sea South 63.3 12.2 5.1 16.6 57.2 13.9 3.6 10.9 Tetford 43.1 28.0 5.9 13.3 33.2 17.4 2.9 6.9 Tetney 76.2 26.7 13.0 23.7 68.3 18.7 7.4 14.2 Trinity 57.4 35.7 10.2 21.2 54.1 21.6 7.2 14.8 Trusthorpe and 38.7 18.7 5.6 13.7 64.8 28.0 4.4 11.3 Mablethorpe South Wainfleet and Friskney 31.1 25.7 8.0 16.6 75.2 14.9 4.1 10.8 Willoughby with Sloothby 46.7 14.3 5.9 12.7 46.5 25.0 3.7 10.0 Winthorpe 53.8 22.1 9.2 19.5 55.5 24.8 6.7 14.2 Withern with Stain 60.7 35.4 6.5 16.1 68.8 24.9 4.9 12.1 Woodhall Spa 71.8 11.3 5.0 14.9 55.7 11.1 3.3 9.4 Wragby 30.3 22.8 5.2 12.8 61.3 11.2 4.9 10.8 East Lindsey 55.4 27.0 7.8 17.9 55.5 19.3 5.8 12.5 Coastal Action Zone 57.1 28.4 7.9 18.8 59.4 21.5 6.2 13.6 Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS experimental ward population estimates 2007. Note: percentages above 100 can occur when estimated populations are small.

5.4 Training undertaken The focus now turns to the type of training undertaken by people living in East Lindsey district as a whole and the Coastal Action Zone within the district (people living in the latter area undertake slightly more training than the remainder of the district).

Table 5.7 presents a breakdown of the 11.8 thousand people in East Lindsey who engaged in learning during 2008/9. The two main categories of learning are Learner Responsive (LR) and Employer Responsive. Employer Responsive training accounts for the majority of all training events for 19 to 24 year olds, but LR training is the largest category for 16-18 year olds and those aged over 25. The percentage engaged in Adult Supported Learning and University for Industry courses increases with age. The profile of learning is similar in the Coastal Action Zone to the district as a whole. However, the district is very different form North Norfolk, in which a much higher percentage of training aims are Adult Supported Learning. East Lindsey differs from other rural coastal areas and England as a whole in having a higher percentage of learners engaged in Employer Responsive training.

Table 5.7: Learning in East Lindsey by age and gender, 2008/9 Percentage of learners undertaking each type of training Adult Supported Learner University Employer Learning Responsive for Industry Responsive Age/gender Learners course course ESF course course course Female 16-18 1,265 0.6 80.4 1.7 1.5 16.6 19-24 1,075 2.1 40.7 0.2 5.5 52.5 25+ 4,199 7.5 51.1 0.0 7.9 35.8 Total 6,539 5.3 55.0 0.4 6.3 34.8 Male 16-18 1,435 0.5 78.0 2.3 1.4 19.0 19-24 891 1.3 37.3 0.8 7.0 55.1 25+ 2,918 4.3 47.0 0.2 9.3 40.8 Total 5,244 2.7 53.8 0.9 6.7 37.3 Persons 16-18 2,700 0.6 79.1 2.0 1.4 17.9 19-24 1,966 1.8 39.1 0.5 6.2 53.7 25+ 7,117 6.2 49.4 0.1 8.5 37.9 Total 11,783 4.2 54.5 0.6 6.5 35.9

Coastal Action 6,790 4.8 55.2 0.9 5.7 35.1 Zone North Norfolk 8,328 20.8 47.9 1.2 2.2 33.2 Coast and 212,351 14.6 55.1 0.5 3.1 29.9 Countryside A England 5,237,943 14.5 54.9 1.3 3.7 30.1 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 5.8: Learning in East Lindsey by age and gender, 2008/9 Percentage of learners undertaking each type of training Successfully NVQ level 1 NVQ level 2 NVQ level 3 NVQ level Studied completed Age/gender 4/5 apprenticeship aim Female 16-18 43.2 62.3 42.3 0.9 15.7 76.1 19-24 24.9 64.4 29.3 5.3 26.4 62.1 25+ 25.1 56.6 18.7 4.7 4.0 67.6 Total 28.6 59.0 25.0 4.1 9.9 68.3 Male 16-18 48.2 58.9 32.7 0.8 16.6 77.8 19-24 26.9 61.5 29.4 5.1 25.5 65.0 25+ 26.5 50.9 16.1 3.1 2.5 68.7 Total 32.5 54.9 22.9 2.8 10.3 70.6 Persons 16-18 45.9 60.5 37.2 0.9 16.2 77.0 19-24 25.8 63.1 29.3 5.2 26.0 63.4 25+ 25.7 54.2 17.6 4.0 3.4 68.0 Total 30.3 57.1 24.1 3.5 10.1 69.3

Coastal Action 32.8 55.9 21.7 3.2 10.0 69.6 Zone North Norfolk 27.9 47.0 26.1 1.4 9.1 66.5 Coast and 27.9 47.2 23.1 2.8 10.5 72.9 Countryside A England 32.4 46.3 22.7 2.7 8.4 72.0 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Nearly three-fifths of training aims undertaken in East Lindsey was intended to lead to a qualification of NVQ Level 2, a quarter to a qualification of level 3 and just under a third to a Level 1 qualification (Table 5.8). The percentage of aims with a training aim of level 2 and 3 was higher for females than for males, while a higher percentage of males studied on courses leading to NVQ 1 qualifications. The percentage studying on NVQ Level 1 courses was slightly higher in the Coastal Action Zone. This percentage was higher than the average for England. In North Norfolk, a higher percentage of people were studying on NVQ Level 3 aims than in East Lindsey.

Overall, 10.1 per cent of students in East Lindsey and 10 per cent in the Coastal Action Zone were studying for apprenticeships, just below the average for Coast and Countryside A but higher than the England average. Over a quarter of 19 to 24 year olds were studying on aims leading to apprenticeships. The percentage of students successfully completing aims declined with age, and was higher than in North Norfolk but below the average for England and Coast and Countryside A.

5.4.1 Subject breakdown Tables 5.9 and 5.10 present the subject breakdown of courses studied by people in East Lindsey and the Coastal Action Zone (most of the courses were only coded to one of the 15 broad categories – Annex 2 provides more information). The largest categories of training for females were leisure, travel and tourism; health, public services and care; business, administration and law; and preparation for life and work. For males, leisure, travel and tourism was easily the largest category, followed by languages, literature and culture; and business, administration and law. This pattern of subject specialism was not greatly different from that displayed by North Norfolk, coast and Countryside A and England as a whole (Table 5.11). East Lindsey 16-18 year olds were slightly more likely than those in England as a whole or other rural and similar areas to study health, public services and care; and business, administration and law, but the highest percentage studying leisure, travel and tourism was slightly below the England average (though higher than for the other areas in the comparison). For all ages, people in East Lindsey were more likely than those elsewhere to study business, administration and law; and health, public services and care.

Table 5.9: East Lindsey – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student Women Men

Code

Subject 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 1 Health, Public Services and Care 9.8 15.6 21.6 16.6 4.4 4.4 6.9 5.4 2 Science and Mathematics 4.7 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.3 1.1 0.8 2.0 4 Engineering and Manufacturing 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 Technologies 5 Construction, Planning and the 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 Built Environment 6 Information and Communication 3.4 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.2 Technology 7 Retail and Commercial Enterprise 0.2 1.7 6.0 3.3 0.2 0.7 2.7 1.3 8 Leisure, Travel and Tourism 25.4 28.7 23.9 25.3 32.8 35.1 28.5 31.6 9 Arts, Media and Publishing 5.6 12.3 8.0 7.9 2.9 5.2 5.9 4.5 10 History, Philosophy and Theology 4.4 1.2 1.0 2.2 3.9 1.0 0.5 2.0 11 Social Sciences 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.1 6.3 12.4 8.9 8.4 12 Languages, Literature and Culture 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 9.6 11.2 13.7 11.5 13 Education and Training 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.7 14 Preparation for Life and Work 3.7 7.0 17.4 11.0 2.4 2.5 14.3 7.0 15 Business, Administration and Law 16.9 13.5 9.1 12.5 8.3 9.5 8.9 8.8 98 Unknown 14.4 2.4 0.9 5.7 12.3 2.6 1.5 6.4 99 Not Applicable 5.8 12.4 3.7 6.0 7.5 11.7 3.9 6.8 Total aims 4828 2488 6949 14265 5294 2195 4720 12209 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 5.10: Coastal Action Zone – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student

Code Female Male

Subject 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 1 Health, Public Services and Care 11.2 14.5 20.5 16.4 5.1 4.0 7.8 6.0 2 Science and Mathematics 4.5 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.9 1.2 0.4 2.0 3 Agriculture, Horticulture and 1.6 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.4 1.3 Animal Care 4 Engineering and Manufacturing 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 Technologies 5 Construction, Planning and the 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 Built Environment 6 Information and Communication 3.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.0 Technology 7 Retail and Commercial Enterprise 0.2 2.1 5.9 3.3 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.0 8 Leisure, Travel and Tourism 23.6 29.9 24.6 25.2 31.1 37.4 32.5 32.8 9 Arts, Media and Publishing 5.1 11.2 7.6 7.4 2.9 5.3 4.9 4.1 10 History, Philosophy and Theology 4.5 0.9 1.1 2.2 3.6 0.8 0.3 1.8 11 Social Sciences 1.5 1.4 0.4 1.0 6.1 11.6 6.5 7.3 12 Languages, Literature and Culture 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 9.1 9.7 11.2 10.1 13 Education and Training 0.8 0.4 1.6 1.1 2.2 1.1 1.9 1.8 14 Preparation for Life and Work 3.7 6.3 18.9 11.6 2.8 2.4 14.3 7.4 15 Business, Administration and Law 18.2 16.0 9.9 13.7 8.8 10.8 10.4 9.8 98 Unknown 13.7 2.1 0.8 5.3 12.2 2.6 1.9 6.3 99 Not Applicable 6.2 12.9 3.7 6.2 7.8 11.5 4.4 7.1 Total aims 2651 1407 3897 7955 2969 1306 2916 7191 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 5.11: East Lindsey and CAZ compared with England and rural areas. Subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student

Code Aged 16-18 All ages Coastal Coastal

& & East North Countr East North Countr Subject Lindsey Norfolk yside A England Lindsey Norfolk yside A England 1 Health, Public Services 7.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 11.4 11.0 10.7 9.1 and Care 2 Science and Mathematics 4.0 5.6 5.3 4.6 2.6 7.6 6.2 5.9 3 Agriculture, Horticulture 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.2 2.7 1.3 1.5 and Animal Care 4 Engineering and 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Manufacturing Technologies 5 Construction, Planning 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 and the Built Environment 6 Information and 2.4 3.7 3.1 3.3 1.6 4.0 3.1 3.4 Communication Technology 7 Retail and Commercial 0.2 1.0 1.2 1.4 2.4 4.4 3.6 4.6 Enterprise 8 Leisure, Travel and 29.3 26.3 27.1 29.7 28.2 22.6 25.6 29.7 Tourism 9 Arts, Media and 4.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 6.3 4.6 4.7 6.0 Publishing 10 History, Philosophy and 4.1 8.0 6.7 6.5 2.1 4.1 3.9 3.1 Theology 11 Social Sciences 3.8 3.2 4.3 3.5 4.5 5.4 5.1 4.1 12 Languages, Literature and 5.2 3.5 5.7 4.5 5.5 3.8 6.2 5.1 Culture 13 Education and Training 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 14 Preparation for Life and 3.0 1.5 1.4 1.5 9.1 5.4 6.0 5.2 Work 15 Business, Administration 12.4 7.9 8.2 6.8 10.8 8.7 8.8 7.5 and Law 98 Unknown 13.3 18.8 15.8 15.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 6.9 99 Not Applicable 6.7 5.5 6.3 5.8 6.4 5.2 5.7 5.2 Total aims 10122 7831 171523 4404111 26474 19107 481237 12071124 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

5.4.2 Learner Responsive aims In Chapter 6, the analysis of travel-to-learn focuses mainly on Learner Responsive training in East Lindsey. In order to provide a context for this analysis, this section describes the characteristics of LR training only. Tables 5.12 and 5.13 present the profile of training undertaken by NVQ level for various sub-groups of the population in the district as a whole and the Coastal Action Zone. In both, NVQ level 2 training is most common and women are more likely than men to undertake NVQ level 2 training, while men are more likely to undertake NVQ level 1 training. Very little NVQ level 4 training is undertaken by any sub-group of the population. The disabled are much more likely than the population as a whole to undertake NVQ level 1 training. The minority ethnic group population is too small for firm conclusions to be drawn, but they also seem more likely to undertake NVQ level 1 training than higher level training courses. In the youngest age group, training courses are almost equally split between NVQ levels 1, 2 and 3, but 19 to 24 year olds are least likely to undertake NVQ level 1 courses and most likely to undertake training to NVQ level 2. Older people are less likely than younger people to undertake training to NVQ level 3, and this tendency is more marked in the Coastal Action Zone than in the district as a whole. People tend to undertake training at the same level or higher than that to which they are already qualified. However, around half of people qualified to NVQ level 4/5 or above undertaken NVQ level 2 training – which might suggest that much training is undertaken for statutory requirements rather than skills development. People with the poorest level of prior qualification tend to undertake training at NVQ level 1 or 2. The great majority of people undertaking training have prior qualifications of NVQ level 1 or 2.

Table 5.12: LR training undertaken in East Lindsey, 2008/9 by NVQ level Population sub-group Percentage of all aims Total aims NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 Female 28.9 44.8 25.7 0.6 6229 Male 40.5 35.0 24.1 0.4 4421 All persons 33.7 40.7 25.0 0.5 10650 Disabled 57.1 28.2 14.6 0.2 2188 White 33.5 40.8 25.2 0.5 10372 Mixed parentage 38.7 31.2 30.1 0.0 93 Asian 44.1 35.3 20.6 0.0 34 Black 41.4 41.4 17.2 0.0 29 Chinese and Other 34.8 37.0 28.3 0.0 46 Aged 16-18 34.3 34.2 31.5 0.0 5904 Aged 19-24 20.5 49.9 29.0 0.7 918 Aged 25+ 36.1 48.5 14.1 1.3 3819 Qualified to level 1 45.6 43.8 10.4 0.1 3063 Qualified to Full level 2 15.6 35.8 48.4 0.2 3726 Qualified to Full level 3 14.1 46.1 37.7 2.1 674 Qualified to level 4 16.3 54.3 23.9 5.5 398 Qualified to level 5 and above 28.1 52.2 17.4 2.2 178 Other qualification below level 1 50.0 44.0 6.0 0.0 50 Qualified to entry level 79.8 14.3 5.9 0.0 119 Holding qualification, level not known 27.4 64.6 7.1 0.9 113 Unknown 34.3 57.1 8.2 0.3 863 no qualifications 65.3 29.5 5.2 0.0 1466 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 5.13: LR training undertaken in the Coastal Action Zone, 2008/9 by NVQ level Population sub-group Percentage of all aims Total aims NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 Female 32.3 44.1 23.2 0.5 3515 Male 43.2 34.1 22.6 0.1 2626 All persons 36.9 39.8 23.0 0.3 6141 Disabled 58.7 26.5 14.8 0.1 1406 White 36.5 40.1 23.1 0.3 5953 Mixed parentage 40.3 29.2 30.6 0.0 72 Asian 50.0 37.5 12.5 0.0 16 Black 85.7 7.1 7.1 0.0 14 Chinese and Other 34.4 40.6 25.0 0.0 32 Aged 16-18 34.8 34.6 30.6 0.0 3308 Aged 19-24 23.0 51.2 25.3 0.6 518 Aged 25+ 43.1 44.7 11.5 0.6 2312 Qualified to level 1 47.0 43.3 9.8 0.0 1844 Qualified to Full level 2 17.2 35.2 47.5 0.0 2037 Qualified to Full level 3 13.1 48.0 36.6 2.3 344 Qualified to level 4 22.7 50.0 23.4 3.9 154 Qualified to level 5 and above 27.7 51.1 18.1 3.2 94 Other qualification below level 1 38.5 57.7 3.8 0.0 26 Qualified to entry level 82.1 13.4 4.5 0.0 67 Holding qualification, level not known 19.6 72.5 7.8 0.0 51 Unknown 35.1 58.7 6.2 0.0 530 no qualifications 68.9 26.9 4.2 0.0 994 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9.

The amount of training engaged in on a given course is indicated by the mean number of guided hours per course undertaken (Tables 5.14 and 5.15). Mean guided hours per course is highest for NVQ level 3 courses, but there is no clear difference in the number of hours of training undertaken by those on NVQ level 1 and 2 courses across the different sub-groups of the population. The number of hours of guided learning undertaken declines as the level of prior qualification increases.

Table 5.14: Hours of training undertaken in East Lindsey, 2008/9 by NVQ level Population sub-group Mean guided hours Total NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 guided hours Female 107.7 105.3 275.0 148.3 933794 Male 138.4 142.8 338.2 188.9 832426 All persons 123.0 118.7 300.3 160.9 1766220 Disabled 157.3 148.5 324.8 213.3 392433 White 124.2 119.6 300.4 160.9 1730646 Mixed parentage 95.3 85.2 333.2 - 15229 Asian 85.9 115.0 295.0 - 4733 Black 77.0 117.0 437.8 - 4517 Chinese and Other 112.1 78.1 222.8 - 6017 Aged 16-18 129.9 158.0 349.8 20.0 1232718 Aged 19-24 187.4 131.0 339.6 266.7 187147 Aged 25+ 104.2 73.3 110.1 150.6 346223 Qualified to level 1 115.2 185.9 378.6 61.8 531499 Qualified to Full level 2 92.4 105.5 326.7 175.4 784746 Qualified to Full level 3 70.6 80.9 186.6 229.4 82463 Qualified to level 4 68.2 45.4 106.1 143.9 27493 Qualified to level 5 and above 62.9 45.6 56.3 127.5 9644 Other qualification below level 1 170.7 94.0 49.0 - 6481 Qualified to entry level 145.3 102.6 377.3 - 18188 Holding qualification, level not known 110.9 33.0 312.3 231.0 8580 Unknown 123.1 74.0 135.3 85.0 82806 no qualifications 162.1 97.5 223.5 - 214320 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9.

Table 5.15: Hours of training undertaken in the Coastal Action Zone, 2008/9 by NVQ level Population sub-group Mean guided hours Total NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 guided hours Female 96.4 105.7 284.0 148.5 507222 Male 131.2 150.7 342.8 215.0 487856 All persons 113.8 122.2 308.8 155.9 995078 Disabled 134.5 165.6 305.2 324.0 236356 White 114.8 123.1 308.2 155.9 970202 Mixed parentage 111.0 90.2 368.1 - 13212 Asian 74.8 127.0 238.5 - 1837 Black 77.0 450.0 485.0 - 1859 Chinese and Other 127.9 65.5 267.5 - 4398 Aged 16-18 126.6 169.7 356.6 20.0 700695 Aged 19-24 124.2 125.2 356.3 290.0 95511 Aged 25+ 97.8 69.2 104.1 136.9 198840 Qualified to level 1 111.2 186.0 396.2 - 316069 Qualified to Full level 2 90.4 114.8 334.2 130.0 437719 Qualified to Full level 3 78.0 83.5 164.4 200.5 39601 Qualified to level 4 74.2 41.8 119.5 98.7 10710 Qualified to level 5 and above 58.5 46.6 44.6 160.0 4999 Other qualification below level 1 208.8 68.9 28.0 - 3150 Qualified to entry level 107.0 78.2 574.3 - 8312 Holding qualification, level not known 73.6 25.1 276.5 - 2771 Unknown 105.4 69.4 122.2 - 45211 no qualifications 137.6 91.4 186.9 - 126536 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9.

Table 5.16 summarises the types of course undertaken by learners from three broad age groups: 16 to 18 year olds, 19 to 24 year olds and those aged 25 and over. As noted above, the bulk of learning is undertaken by the first of these, with those aged 25 and over responsible for the bulk of the remainder. The most common qualification which training courses lead to is a “certificate” (39.3 per cent of all training events), while 12.1 per cent (and 20.5 per cent for 16-18 year olds) lead to a NVQ or GNVQ Key Skills Unit. For those aged 25 and over, 60 per cent of courses lead to a certificate as the outcome of training. Around an eighth of 16 to 19 year olds are undertaking courses which lead to a GCE AS level.

Table 5.16: Outcomes of training undertaken in East Lindsey, 2008/9. Aim type Age group All ages 16-18 19-24 25+ GCE AS level 11.6 1.9 0.2 6.7 GCSE 3.7 2.7 0.7 2.5 Access Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Diploma 5.4 6.8 3.7 4.9 Advanced Certificate 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 Certificate 25.2 43.2 60.0 39.3 First Certificate 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 First Diploma 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 National Certificate 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 NVQ 5.9 8.4 2.7 5.0 Postgraduate Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Foundation Certificate 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 Introductory Certificate 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.5 Professional Diploma 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Advanced Diploma 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 Intermediate Certificate 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 NVQ or GNVQ Key Skills Unit 20.5 5.7 0.6 12.1 GCE A2 Level 4.2 3.5 0.0 2.6 Free Standing Mathematics Qualifications 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Edexcel National Award 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.1 Edexcel First Diploma new syllabus 2.2 0.4 0.1 1.3 Edexcel National Certificate new syllabus 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 Edexcel National Diploma new syllabus 5.3 3.2 0.0 3.2 Introductory Diploma 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 GCE Applied A Level 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GCE Applied AS Level 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 GCE Applied AS Level Double Award 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 GCE Applied A2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 Conversion Class Code 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 Functional Skills 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 Access to HE Diploma from 2007 0.0 2.3 0.3 0.3 Project/Extended Project in Diploma 14-19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 QCF Units 0.0 1.2 3.3 1.3 Foundation Award 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Other 7.1 15.9 25.2 14.4 Advanced National Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Residential College Course 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Unitisation Provision 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 NVQ or GNVQ additional units 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.1 All learning events (100%) 5906 918 3824 10648 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

5.5 Conclusion This chapter has put together evidence from national statistical sources and administrative data from the training system on the skills, qualifications and type of training activity undertaken in East Lindsey. The district has experienced, and is projected to continue to experience, strong population growth. While ageing and net in-migration mean that the older population is growing strongly, there has also been a recent increase in the number of young people. Previous population trends mean that there is a relative lack of people in their thirties and early forties in the area. Around three-quarters of the working age population are in work, with employment rates for women increasing steadily with age, from a low level for young women, suggesting they spend longer in full-time education than young men. Educational performance for children at Key Stage 3 (aged 14) is poorer than average, but that of A/AS level students is slightly above average.

Men and women contrast strongly in the type of jobs in which they are employed. For men, skilled and semi-skilled manual employment is still relatively important, and the growth in higher-level occupations appears to have benefited women more than men. However, elementary occupations are still a substantial component of female employment. The level of highest qualifications held is lower on average in East Lindsey than in the East Midlands or Great Britain. Rates of participation in training are slightly below the average for England and similar rural areas, and are higher for females than males. Participation declines continuously with age, in contrast to both the England average and other coastal areas with large retired populations (in which participation rates increase after the age of 50). Participation rates tend to be higher in the towns of the district than the rural areas and slightly higher in the east. Most commonly, people study on courses leading to NVQ level 1 and 2 qualifications, with men more likely to study for NVQ Level 1 than women. The most common subjects studied are in the leisure and health and social care sectors and for business-related skills. People were more likely to study for NVQ Level 2 qualifications and for apprenticeships than in England as a whole. Students were less likely than the England average to study on courses concerned with science, mathematics, technology or agriculture. Much of the training engaged in by younger people is concerned with obtaining educational qualifications.

Chapter 6: Travel to learn patterns in East Lindsey and the Coastal Zone 6.1 Introduction The focus of this chapter is on where people living in East Lindsey go to obtain training. The analysis is based on data from the Individual Learner Record for the 2008/9 academic year. The chapter begins by outlining the training activity taking place in the district and then goes on to examine the nature of training provided in more detail, focusing upon Learner Responsive training and Employer Responsive training. The detailed geographical pattern of travel-to-train for different types of training and distance travelled by learners is analysed for both types of training. 6.2 Location of training One part of the Individual Learner Record (ILR) is a database of all providers of training. Training providers provide training at a large number of locations and more than one provider may use the same location to deliver training. Table 6.1 lists the training providers actually based in East Lindsey and classified as being ‘active’ in the LSC Learning Aims database. Only 4 were recorded by the ILR as delivering training aims during 2008/9.

Table 6.1: Active training providers based in East Lindsey, 2008/9 Name of provider Type Postcode Aims Learn Empl ESF delivered er oyer 2008/9 Respo Respo nsive nsive SKEGNESS COLLEGE OF Private Limited PE25 3EZ 536 313 80 143 VOCATIONAL TRAINING LIMITED Company EAST LINDSEY INFORMATION PRI/LTD BY GUAR/NSC PE25 1BY 898 898 TECHNOLOGY CENTRE CHILDREN'S LINKS PRI/LBG/NSC/S.30 LN9 6PH 63 63 LINCOLNSHIRE RURAL ACTIVITIES Charitable LN11 8NR 176 176 CENTRE QUEEN ELIZABETH'S GRAMMAR School-Foundation LN13 9HY SCHOOL QUEEN ELIZABETH'S GRAMMAR School-Foundation LN9 5AD SCHOOL, HORNCASTLE CORDEAUX SCHOOL School-Community LN11 0HG THE KING EDWARD VI GRAMMAR School-Foundation LN11 9LL SCHOOL, LOUTH MONKS' DYKE TECHNOLOGY School-Foundation LN11 9AW COLLEGE ST CLEMENTS COLLEGE School-Community PE25 2QH THE SKEGNESS GRAMMAR School-Foundation PE25 2QS SCHOOL LINKAGE COMMUNITY TRUST PRI/LTD BY GUAR/NSC PE23 5AE LIMITED(THE) WORK BASED ACADEMY LIMITED PRI/LTD BY GUAR/NSC LN11 0YB Total 1673 176 1041 143 Source: LSC Learning Aims Database The two largest locally based providers are located in the Skegness area, with the largest being an information technology centre exclusively providing Employer Responsive training. As can be seen

88 from Table 6.2, they account for only a small percentage of all training aims: 1 per cent of Learner Responsive and 11.9 per cent of Employer Responsive training activity taking place in East Lindsey. Hence most training to East Lindsey residents is provided by organisations based outside the district, even when it is delivered within the district.

Table 6.2: Breakdown of training activity by East Lindsey residents (number of aims) Age/gender All training Adult Learner European University Employer group aims Supported Responsive Social Fund for Industry Responsive Learning Female 16-18 4828 9 3928 41 82 768 19-24 2488 33 736 4 258 1457 25+ 6949 429 2943 2 1231 2344 All females 14265 471 7607 47 1571 4569 Male 16-18 5294 7 3950 65 119 1153 19-24 2195 13 502 13 264 1403 25+ 4720 178 1777 22 1137 1606 All Males 12209 198 6229 100 1520 4162 Persons 16-18 10122 16 7878 106 201 1921 19-24 4683 46 1238 17 522 2860 25+ 11669 607 4720 24 2368 3950 All Persons 26474 669 13836 147 3091 8731

In total, 26.5 thousand training aims during 2008/9, just over half being Learner Responsive training and a third Employer Responsive. The majority of LR aims are delivered to people aged 16 to 18, while Employer Responsive training is undertaken by people aged 19 and above and Adult Supported Learning is largely undertaken by people aged 25 and over.

Figure 6.1: Geographical distribution of Figure 6.2: Geographical distribution of Employer Responsive training aims for Learner Responsive training aims for East East Lindsey residents Lindsey residents

Figure 6.3: Geographical distribution of Adult Supported Learning aims for East Lindsey residents

Source: Individual Learner Record and ONS mid-year district population estimates for 2008 The geographical distribution of training activity in the district is depicted in Figures 6.1 to 6.3. Clearly, there are major differences in the three patterns. Employer Responsive training involves relatively small numbers of people and is delivered locally across the district (Figure 6.1), but Learner Responsive training is mainly delivered in large centres beyond the boundaries of the district; mainly Grimsby, Lincoln, Grantham and Boston, with a small amount of training around Skegness and Louth (Figure 6.2). The bulk of Adult Supported Learning involves relatively small numbers of people and tends to occur in the main towns of the district, the Grimsby area and Boston (Figure 6.3).

Table 6.3: Travel to training for East Lindsey residents, 2008/9 Type of training Percentage of Median distance to Median distance to training delivered learn (Km)- East learn (Km)- England in East Lindsey Lindsey Adult Supported Learning 69.0 6.1 2.7 Learner Responsive 25.1 21.7 4.8 European Social Fund 72.7 7.7 4.3 University for Industry - - - Employer Responsive 61.6 7.5 5.3 All types 35.6 17.5 4.7 Source: Individual Learner Record. Note: University for Industry training is delivered by distance learning. Overall, only just over a third of training is delivered to East Lindsey residents within the district and the median travel-to-train distance is 17.5 kilometres (Table 6.3). ESF training is slightly more likely to be delivered within the district than Adult Supported Learning, but people receiving ASL training have the shortest journeys to learn. Trainees receiving Employer Responsive training travel slightly further on average and over three-fifths do not have to travel outside East Lindsey. However, three- quarters of Learner Responsive training occurs outside East Lindsey and trainees have to travel a median distance of nearly 22 kilometres (13.5 miles). Travel-to-learn distances are nearly four times longer on average than for England as a whole, for all types of training, and average distances are slightly longer for Employer Responsive than Learner responsive training for England as a whole.

Table 6.4: England - median distance to learn by urban and rural classification of district and type of training (Kilometres) Adult Learner ESF Employer All Supported Responsive Responsive Learning Major Urban 2.34 4.35 4.12 5.34 4.34 Large Urban 2.31 3.98 3.79 4.38 3.93 Other Urban 2.39 3.51 3.61 4.29 3.59 Significant Rural 3.19 5.37 4.24 5.84 5.17 Rural-50 4.03 8.41 10.77 6.27 7.35 Rural-80 5.11 12.62 12.64 8.90 10.66 Total 2.68 4.79 4.23 5.29 4.66 Source: Individual Learner Record.

This is partly because of the rural nature and sparse population distribution of the district. Table 6.4 demonstrates that for England as a whole, the distance travelled to train increases as the rural character of a district increases. Employer Responsive training involves longer journeys and it is only in the most rural districts that journeys to Learner Responsive training are longer.

Table 6.5: England and East Lindsey compared - median distance to learn by urban and rural classification of the Output Area in which the learner lives and type of training (Kilometres) Urban/Rural indicator for learner Adult Learner Europea Employ All Support Respons n Social er ed ive Fund Respons Learnin ive g East Lindsey Urban (Sparse) 1.23 21.77 1.95 1.93 20.92 Town and Fringe (Sparse) 1.00 33.99 16.88 10.92 23.29 Village (Sparse) 9.30 24.80 19.57 12.10 21.25 Hamlet and Isolated Dwellings (Sparse) 7.20 20.99 9.03 9.77 18.00 Urban (Less Sparse) 1.23 29.27 1.02 1.53 2.44 Town and Fringe (Less Sparse) 6.38 17.93 13.31 8.87 13.94 Village (Less Sparse) 8.41 16.05 8.46 12.57 15.13 Hamlet and Isolated Dwellings (Less Sparse) 10.70 26.22 5.81 15.97 22.45 All learners 6.07 21.71 7.70 7.52 17.48 England Urban (Sparse) 1.15 20.70 4.89 2.10 15.38 Town and Fringe (Sparse) 1.30 26.07 16.69 12.40 17.80 Village (Sparse) 8.33 25.83 25.10 15.84 21.49 Hamlet and Isolated Dwellings (Sparse) 10.23 27.94 10.70 16.80 22.35 Urban (Less Sparse) 2.21 4.07 3.93 4.83 4.04 Town and Fringe (Less Sparse) 5.30 10.89 10.75 9.52 9.85 Village (Less Sparse) 7.38 10.40 11.81 7.23 9.09 Hamlet and Isolated Dwellings (Less Sparse) 7.23 9.30 11.31 7.19 8.49 All learners 2.69 4.81 4.25 5.34 4.69 Source: Individual Learner Record.

Figure 6.4: DfT estimates of time taken to travel (in minutes) to Further Education college by public transport or walking

. Source:Department for Transport. Another question is how the length of journey is related to the pattern of population distribution and transport accessibility within East Lindsey. Figure 6.4 presents the Department for Transport estimates of travel time to Further Education colleges by Output Area. This demonstrates that the Coastal Action Zone experiences poor accessibility, other than the area around Skegness. The south- west (around Woodhall Spa and Tattershall) also has poor accessibility, but estimated travel times are lowest around the main towns (Louth, Alford, Horncastle and the Spilsby/Skegness areas).

Table 6.5 uses the ONS/DEFRA urban-rural classification of output areas to contrast the median travel-to-study distances for different types of training for residents of East Lindsey and England as a whole. Distances travelled are longer in East Lindsey than the England average in all types of locality, but there are strong similarities, which suggest that physical sparsity of population, peripherality and poor transport are the major factors underlying longer journeys to training for Learner Responsive training. However, travel-to-learn distances are longer for Employer Responsive training for East Lindsey residents living in more densely populated areas than the average for England. Also, journeys are shorter in rural areas. This suggests that rural residents of East Lindsey have easier accessibility to Employer Responsive training than the average rural resident in England.

In the remainder of this chapter, the nature of Learner Responsive and Employer Responsive training in East Lindsey is explored in greater detail and the actual patterns of travel to training presented for different types of learner.

6.3 Learner Responsive Training This section is concerned with the provision of Learner Responsive training to residents of East Lindsey, in terms of what types of organisation are providing training, what types of training are provided, where it is located and the geographical accessibility of learners to LR training opportunities.

Table 6.6: LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 Type of provider All Level of training training NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 events General FE College incl Tertiary 9444 3378 3925 2084 54 Higher Education Organisation 11 5 5 Local Education Authority (LEA) 87 46 32 9 PRI/LBG/NSC/S.30 (Not for profit company) 13 2 11 Private Limited Company 43 16 15 12 School-Foundation 11 1 10 Sixth form college 746 131 87 528 Special college - Agriculture and horticulture 30 7 15 7 1 Specialist Designated college 272 12 256 1 Total 10657 3592 4336 2667 55 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 6.7: Profile of LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 Type of provider All Level of training (percentages) training NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 events General FE College incl Tertiary 9444 35.8 41.6 22.1 0.6 Higher Education Organisation 11 0.0 45.5 45.5 0.0 Local Education Authority (LEA) 87 52.9 36.8 10.3 0.0 PRI/LBG/NSC/S.30 (Not for profit company) 13 15.4 0.0 84.6 0.0 Private Limited Company 43 37.2 34.9 27.9 0.0 School-Foundation 11 0.0 9.1 90.9 0.0 Sixth form college 746 17.6 11.7 70.8 0.0 Special college - Agriculture and horticulture 30 23.3 50.0 23.3 3.3 Specialist Designated college 272 4.4 94.1 0.4 0.0 Total 10657 33.7 40.7 25.0 0.5 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 6.8: Percentage share of type of training provider in LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 Type of provider All Level of training training NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 events General FE College incl Tertiary 88.6 94.0 90.5 78.1 98.2 Higher Education Organisation 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 Local Education Authority (LEA) 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 PRI/LBG/NSC/S.30 (Not for profit company) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 Private Limited Company 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 School-Foundation 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 Sixth form college 7.0 3.6 2.0 19.8 0.0 Special college - Agriculture and horticulture 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.8 Specialist Designated college 2.6 0.3 5.9 0.0 0.0 Total (100%) 10657 3592 4336 2667 55 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9 Tables 6.6 to 6.8 present the training activity undertaken by people living in East Lindsey in 2008/9, in terms of the NVQ level of training undertaken and the type of training provider. This is based on the number of individual training ‘aims’ (broadly courses) engaged in by learners during this academic year. Overall, 88.6 per cent of training activity is undertaken at general FE colleges with the next largest provider (7 per cent of all aims) being sixth-from colleges. (Table 6.8) The largest category of training is NVQ level 2, accounting for 40.5 per cent, with a further third of NVQ level 1 and a quarter of NVQ level 3 (Table 6.7). FE colleges account for nearly all training of NVQ levels 1, 2 and 4 while sixth form colleges deliver nearly a fifth of NVQ level 3 training

Table 6.9: Total hours of LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 Type of provider All Level of training training NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 events General FE College incl Tertiary 1625737 433934 495968 687007 8828 Higher Education Organisation 3117 159 2958 Local Education Authority (LEA) 5568 2400 2454 714 PRI/LBG/NSC/S.30 (Not for profit company) 2973 333 2640 Private Limited Company 10380 480 900 9000 School-Foundation 579 33 546 Sixth form college 107678 3929 10621 93128 Special college - Agriculture and horticulture 6085 661 583 4821 20 Specialist Designated college 4103 210 3884 9 Total (100%) 1766220 441947 514602 800823 8848 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9 FE colleges delivered 1.6 million hours of training to East Lindsey residents during 2008/9, out of a total of nearly 1.8 million hours (Table 6.9). About half of all training hours were on NVQ level 3 courses, which accounted for the bulk of the training hours provided by sixth form colleges. Specialist colleges also devoted most of their training activity to NVQ level 3 courses.

The average number of hours of training delivered to East Lindsey residents on a single course (aim) was 172 hours in 2008/9 (Table 6.10). The mean number of hours per course increased with level of qualification, from 41 for NVQ level 1 to 185 for NVQ level 3 (but the average number of hours for NVQ level 4 was only 3). The mean number of hours of training delivered was much higher in FE colleges than for other types of provider for NVQ level 1 and 2 training, but far less for NVQ level 3 training. NVQ level 3 courses at sixth form colleges involved 1070 hours of training on average, but those delivered by colleges involved only 175 hours.

Table 6.10: Mean hours of LR training delivered to residents of East Lindsey, 2008/9 Type of provider All Level of training training NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4 events General FE College incl Tertiary 172 46 147 175 4 Higher Education Organisation 283 0 - 592 0 Local Education Authority (LEA) 64 28 53 22 0 PRI/LBG/NSC/S.30 229 26 0 - 0 Private Limited Company 241 11 56 600 0 School-Foundation 53 0 - 546 0 Sixth form college 144 5 81 1070 0 Special college - Agriculture and horticulture 203 22 83 321 3 Specialist Designated college 15 1 324 0 0 Total (100%) 166 41 143 185 3 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 6.11: Largest providers of LR training to East Lindsey residents, 2008/9 Provider Aims Per cent Cumulati ve % GRIMSBY INSTITUTE OF FURTHER AND HIGHER ED 4481 42.0 42.0 BOSTON COLLEGE 2408 22.6 64.6 LINCOLN COLLEGE 1646 15.4 80.1 FRANKLIN COLLEGE 738 6.9 87.0 GRANTHAM COLLEGE 330 3.1 90.1 WORKERS' EDUCATIONAL ASSOCIATION 265 2.5 92.6 DERBY COLLEGE 135 1.3 93.9 NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE COUNCIL 78 0.7 94.6 ACCESS TO MUSIC LIMITED 43 0.4 95.0 COLLEGE OF WEST ANGLIA 40 0.4 95.4 THE MANCHESTER COLLEGE 34 0.3 95.7 CHESTERFIELD COLLEGE 31 0.3 96.0 SOLIHULL COLLEGE 29 0.3 96.3 ROTHERHAM COLLEGE OF ARTS AND TECHNOLOGY 26 0.2 96.5 CASTLE COLLEGE NOTTINGHAM 24 0.2 96.7 HULL COLLEGE 18 0.2 96.9 BEDFORD COLLEGE 14 0.1 97.0 LOUGHBOROUGH COLLEGE 14 0.1 97.2 WARWICKSHIRE COLLEGE, LEAMINGTON SPA, RUGBY AND 14 0.1 97.3 MORETON MORRELL SOUTH NOTTINGHAM COLLEGE 13 0.1 97.4 LINCOLNSHIRE RURAL ACTIVITIES CENTRE 12 0.1 97.5 BISHOP BURTON COLLEGE 11 0.1 97.6 NORTH WARWICKSHIRE AND HINCKLEY COLLEGE 11 0.1 97.7 PRE-SCHOOL LEARNING ALLIANCE 11 0.1 97.8 ROBERT PATTINSON SCHOOL 11 0.1 97.9 All training events 10657 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Table 6.12: Types of qualification studied for in largest providers of LR training (percent of total) Types of qualification Boston Derby Franklin Grantha Grimsby Lincoln WEA College College college m College Institute College GCE AS level 3.0 0.0 37.5 0.0 3.1 13.1 0.0 GCSE 1.6 0.0 7.9 0.3 2.1 4.3 0.0 Access Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Diploma 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3 3.5 0.0 Advanced Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Certificate 36.8 73.3 25.1 93.0 47.2 15.7 0.0 First Certificate 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 First Diploma 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 National Certificate 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 NVQ 4.5 2.2 0.0 0.6 5.1 9.2 0.0 Postgraduate Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Foundation Certificate 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 Introductory Certificate 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 Professional Diploma 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Advanced Diploma 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Intermediate Certificate 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NVQ or GNVQ Key Skills Unit 18.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.9 28.4 0.0 GCE A2 Level 1.5 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.7 5.0 0.0 Free Standing Mathematics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 Qualifications Edexcel National Award 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.0 Edexcel First Diploma new 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.0 syllabus Edexcel National Certificate new 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 syllabus Edexcel National Diploma new 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.6 0.0 syllabus Introductory Diploma 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 GCE Applied A Level 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GCE Applied AS Level 0.1 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GCE Applied AS Level Double 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Award GCE Applied A2 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Conversion Class Code 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 Functional Skills 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 Access to Higher Education 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 Diploma from 2007 Project or Extended Project 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 within Diploma 14-19 QCF Units 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 Foundation Award 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 13.1 24.4 6.4 4.8 14.5 5.5 100.0 Advanced National Certificate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Long Term Residential College 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Course Unitisation Provision 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 NVQ or GNVQ additional units 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 Total 2408 135 738 330 4481 1646 265 Source: Individual Learner Record, 2008/9

Figure 6.5: Types of qualifications which courses lead to

Number of courses 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

GCE AS level

GCSE

Access Certificate

Diploma

Advanced Certificate

Certificate

First Certificate

First Diploma

National Certificate

NVQ

Postgraduate Certificate

Foundation Certificate

Introductory Certificate

Professional Diploma

Advanced Diploma

Intermediate Certificate

NVQ or GNVQ Key Skills Unit

GCE A2 Level

Free Standing Mathematics Qualifications

Edexcel National Award

Edexcel First Diploma new syllabus

Edexcel National Certificate new syllabus

Edexcel National Diploma new syllabus

Introductory Diploma

GCE Applied A Level

GCE Applied AS Level

GCE Applied AS Level Double Award

GCE Applied A2

Conversion Class Code

Functional Skills

Access to Higher Education Diploma from 2007

Project or Extended Project within Diploma 14-19

QCF Units

Foundation Award

Other

Advanced National Certificate

Long Term Residential College Course

Unitisation Provision

NVQ or GNVQ additional units

Source: 2008/9 ILR

There are 103 providers of LR training to residents of East Lindsey in the ILR database, but only 25 delivered more than 10 “aims” (individual courses), together accounting for 97.9 per cent of the total (Table 6.11). Figure 6.5 presents the type of qualifications which the courses delivered result in. Clearly, most courses lead to one of a small number of types of qualification. The largest category (4180) is “Certificate”, followed by “Other” (1528) and “NVQ or GNVQ Key Skills Unit” (1284). Of the remainder, 710 led to GCSE AS levels, 280 to GCE A2 level and 269 to GCSE qualifications and there were 533 courses leading to “NVQ” qualifications and 524 to a “Diploma”.

The types of courses delivered by the seven largest (those delivering more than 100 courses) training providers is presented in Table 6.12. The largest provider by far is Grimsby Institute, followed by Boston College and Lincoln College. Nearly half of Grimsby Institute’s courses result in the qualification of ‘Certificate’, with 14.5 leading to an ‘Other’ qualification. For Boston College, 36.8 per cent of courses lead to a Certificate and 18.4 per cent to a NVQ or GNVQ Key Skills Unit. This is the largest category (28.4 per cent) for Lincoln College, where 15.7 per cent of courses lead to a Certificate and 13.1 per cent lead to a GCE AS level. For Franklin College, 37.5 per cent of courses lead to a GCE AS level, 25.1 per cent to a Certificate and 17.5 per cent to a GCE A2 level. For Grantham College, 93 per cent of courses lead to a Certificate, while all WEA courses lead to an “Other” qualification and 73.3 per cent of courses delivered by Derby College lead to a Certificate” 6.4 The geography of travel-to-study for Learner Responsive training The Individual Learner Record “aims” data file contains demographic details of the individual learner and basic information on the training provider and the characteristics of the course. However, it contains a number of geographic variables detailing the location of both learner and provider, including the unit postcode, electoral ward and local authority district of both. The postcode can be used to identify the Ordnance Survey National Grid reference of the place of residence of the learner and for the location of training delivery. This can be used both for drawing maps of travel-to-study flows and for calculating the distance travelled from home to location of training delivery.

Figures 6.6 to 6.13 present the pattern of travel-to-study using arrows drawn from the electoral ward of residence to the location of training delivery (represented by the ‘lower super output area’ in which the place in which training occurs is located). The width of each arrow is proportionate to the number of people in the movement – each person is represented by 10 metres width. The arrows are also colour coded according to the number of people moving. There are a large number of small flows and their pattern is very complex. In order to reduce their influence on the map, these small flows are drawn in grey. The larger the number of people moving, the more emphasis is given to the arrow, so the largest flows are drawn in dark red with a black border. By drawing the maps for the electoral wards in which learners live, short distances travelled to study are represented, but those people who study in the same ward as they live are not represented on these maps. On each of these maps the Coastal Zone is indicated by grey shading. The common feature of all these maps is that the journeys to study predominantly have three foci: in Grimsby, Boston and Lincoln. These correspond with the largest training providers: the Grimsby

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Institute, Boston College and Lincoln College. Skegness acts as a secondary focus for training flows, drawing from neighbouring areas.

Figure 6.6: Males – LR training Figure 6.7: Females – LR training

Figure 6.8: Aged 16 to 18 training Figure 6.9: Aged 19 to 24 training

Source: Individual Learner Record 2008/09

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Figure 6.10: Aged 25 and over LR training Figure 6.11: NVQ level 1 LR training

Figure 6.12: NVQ level 2 LR training Figure 6.13: NVQ level 3 LR training

Source: Individual Learner Record 2008/09 There are clear regional divisions within East Lindsey. Learners living in the west of the district tend to go to Lincoln for training. Of those living on the coast, those in the north tend to go to Grimsby, while those living in the south tend to go to Boston for training. However, there is also a large flow

102 from the Skegness area to Lincoln. Boston also draws trainees from the south-west part of the district.

Females appear to more likely than males to travel long distances – e.g. from the coastal strip to Grantham. The largest flows tend to involve shorter distances. The largest travel-to-study flows are experienced by people aged 16 to 18.

The largest flows for people aged 16 to 18 are in the west of the county, focussed on Lincoln. There are large short-distance flows from the north-east and Louth towards Grimsby. Learners aged 16 to 18 in the south tend to focus upon Boston.

Travel-to-study flows for 19 to 24 year olds are much smaller and more diffuse. One of the larger flows is from the Louth area to Grimsby. For those aged 25 or over (Figure 6.10), the pattern is more complex and flows tend to be focussed more towards Mablethorpe, Skegness and Grantham than towards Lincoln, Boston and Grimsby. The larger flows are of shorter distance. Training for NVQ level 1 (Figure 6.11) tends to be concentrated in Grimsby, Lincoln and Boston. On the coastal strip, people from the Mablethorpe area and northwards tend to go to Grimsby, while those form the Skegness area tend to go to Boston. However, there are also short-distance movements in the Skegness area, Louth and Mablethorpe. The volume of movement for NVQ level 2 training (Figure 6.12) is greater, and much more focussed on Lincoln, Grimsby and Boston, but with a larger flow to Grantham. The largest flow volumes focus on Lincoln. Many people resident in Skegness have long travel-to-study journeys to all three of the main destinations and Grantham.

Journeys for NVQ level 3 training (Figure 6.13) tend to be shorter and the largest flows are short distance (e.g. from the northern part of the district to Grimsby). Flows to Lincoln and Grimsby are larger than those to Boston.

Tables 6.13 and 6.14 summarise the distances travelled to study by learners living in East Lindsey as a whole (Table 6.13) and the Coastal Action Zone (Table 6.14). For both males and females, a fairly high percentage have to travel more than 25 kilometres (39.1 per cent of females and 46.4 per cent of males in East Lindsey, with the percentage slightly higher in the Coastal Action Zone). The median distance travelled is higher for males than females, but females have a smaller median in the CAZ than the district as a whole, while males travel further (25.5 Km) in the CAZ.

Median distances to learn are highest for the youngest age group and 6.4 Km longer in the CAZ than in the district as a whole. People in the youngest age group are also least likely to access training close to home. People of mixed parentage and from the Asian ethnic groups tend to travel further to study than white people. Disabled people travel a shorter distance on average than other people, and while the percentage travelling more than 25 Km is lower than average, over a quarter have to travel more than 25 Km. The median distance is smaller in the CAZ than for the district as a whole. People with better qualifications tend to travel shorter distances, while those whose qualifications are of a low level or unknown have the longest median journeys to study (but there is a difference between the CAZ and the district as a whole).

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The median distance travelled to study increases as the NVQ level of training increases. Median distance to study is higher for the CAZ than for the district as a whole for each level of NVQ qualification.

Table 6.13: Journey-to-study by type of student and course: Learner Responsive training undertaken by East Lindsey residents 2008/9 Group All Journey-to-study distance (Km) Median training 0 to 4.99 5 to 9.99 10 to 25 to 50 Km distance events Km Km 24.99 Km 49.99 Km and over travelled (Km) Female 6215 17.7 12.1 31.0 28.5 10.6 21.2 Male 4406 10.7 12.4 30.5 36.8 9.6 22.9 Persons 10621 14.8 12.2 30.8 31.9 10.2 21.8 Aged 16-18 5905 6.0 12.1 35.8 40.1 6.0 23.3 Aged 19-24 911 16.0 12.3 27.2 30.0 14.5 21.8 Aged 25+ 3796 28.2 12.5 23.9 19.7 15.8 17.0 Broad ethnic group White 10344 14.8 12.2 30.8 32.0 10.1 21.8 Mixed parentage 93 9.7 19.4 24.7 31.2 15.1 24.0 Asian or Asian British 34 2.9 20.6 23.5 50.0 2.9 28.1 Black or Black British 29 10.3 6.9 37.9 20.7 24.1 17.0 Mixed parentage 45 20.0 11.1 13.3 44.4 11.1 26.6

Disabled 2188 19.4 13.9 34.5 27.2 4.9 19.1 Previous educational attainment level 1 3063 13.2 10.9 37.3 34.5 4.0 21.7 Full level 2 3722 8.0 15.3 30.3 37.8 8.7 22.8 Full level 3 665 14.6 8.9 28.3 35.3 12.9 23.3 level 4 397 23.9 12.1 31.0 25.2 7.8 18.5 level 5 and above 178 28.7 12.4 28.7 21.3 9.0 17.3 other qualifications below 50 22.0 6.0 30.0 32.0 10.0 18.3 level 1 entry level 119 23.5 2.5 33.6 31.9 8.4 18.7 other qualification, level not 113 31.9 3.5 14.2 29.2 21.2 25.8 known not known 852 13.5 8.7 19.5 16.1 42.3 38.7 no qualifications 1462 30.0 12.7 27.5 22.8 7.0 16.9 Level of training NVQ Level 1 3584 22.1 14.0 32.9 26.0 5.1 18.0 NVQ Level 2 4316 16.3 9.7 27.7 31.5 14.8 23.0 NVQ Level 3 2659 2.8 14.1 33.3 40.7 9.2 24.8 NVQ Level 4 55 7.3 12.7 16.4 38.2 25.5 30.6

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Table 6.14: Journey-to-study by type of student and course: Learner Responsive training undertaken by Coastal Action Zone residents 2008/9 Group All Journey-to-study distance (Km) Median training 0 to 4.99 5 to 9.99 10 to 25 to 50 Km and distance events Km Km 24.99 Km 49.99 Km over travelled (Km) Female 3508 19.5 18.2 21.2 27.3 13.9 17.8 Male 2619 13.4 17.7 18.1 40.1 10.7 25.5 Persons 6127 16.9 18.0 19.9 32.7 12.5 20.6 Aged 16-18 3310 6.1 18.2 21.8 45.2 8.7 29.7 Aged 19-24 515 20.6 17.9 14.6 30.3 16.7 19.9 Aged 25+ 2299 31.6 17.7 18.3 15.4 17.1 10.3 Broad ethnic group White 5939 16.9 18.0 19.6 33.0 12.4 20.9 Mixed parentage 72 5.6 23.6 25.0 29.2 16.7 24.0 Asian or Asian British 16 43.8 6.3 43.8 6.3 21.6 Black or Black British 14 21.4 14.3 21.4 7.1 35.7 14.1 Chinese and Other 32 21.9 9.4 18.8 34.4 15.6 25.0

Disabled 1406 19.6 19.3 26.0 30.1 5.0 17.3 Previous educational attainment level 1 1845 15.1 14.4 22.5 43.0 5.0 24.0 Full level 2 2036 8.5 24.5 17.2 37.2 12.6 24.8 Full level 3 337 13.9 13.4 19.9 33.2 19.6 28.4 level 4 155 21.3 18.7 25.2 23.2 11.6 16.0 level 5 and above 94 29.8 19.1 22.3 16.0 12.8 10.3 other qualifications below level 26 38.5 11.5 19.2 23.1 7.7 9.2 1 entry level 67 32.8 3.0 23.9 26.9 13.4 18.9 other qualification, level not 51 39.2 7.8 11.8 17.6 23.5 12.8 known not known 525 17.7 10.9 18.3 10.1 43.0 33.5 no qualifications 991 33.3 18.1 20.4 20.9 7.4 9.3 Level of training NVQ Level 1 2264 23.6 19.3 23.8 28.0 5.3 15.4 NVQ Level 2 2434 18.9 13.3 17.3 31.8 18.7 26.0 NVQ Level 3 1406 2.8 23.8 18.1 42.3 12.9 29.9 NVQ Level 4 18 5.6 27.8 16.7 11.1 38.9 26.0 Source: Individual Learner Record 6.5 Employer Responsive Training Table 6.15 presents the type of Employer Responsive training delivered to residents of East Lindsey during 2008/9, classifying aims by level of training, the SOC major occupation training is relevant to, programme type and entry route into training. Over half of training aims are of NVQ Level 2, and 18.9 per cent of Level 3 or above, but 17.3 per cent is of “Other” level). Therefore, the bulk of training provided is of a relatively low level. Male trainees were less likely than female trainees to be studying on training at Level 2 and above. A quarter of 16 to 18 year olds undertook training aims classified as “Other”, this percentage being lowest for trainees aged 25 and over. The latter group tended to be concentrated in NVQ Level 2 training.

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Table 6.15: Profile of Employer Responsive training provision in East Lindsey, 2008/9 Percentage of trainees by age and gender Female Male 16-18 19-24 25+ All

Level of training Level 1 and Entry 13.1 12.6 19.1 14.6 8.5 12.8 Level 2 49.6 52.4 44.8 44.7 58.5 51.0 Level 3 19.7 16.5 11.9 20.1 19.9 18.2 Level 4, 5 or Higher 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 Other 16.7 18.2 24.3 20.1 11.9 17.3 Total 4578 4174 1921 2860 3950 8731 SOC Major Group Managers/Sen. Officials 6.1 4.7 0.4 4.6 7.8 5.5 Professional 0.5 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.1 1.4 Assoc. Prof. &Technical 2.9 3.9 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.3 Admin & Secretarial 16.3 5.4 19.7 12.5 8.0 11.5 Skilled Trades 3.4 45.1 43.1 25.4 12.4 21.7 Personal Service 40.8 7.9 20.0 21.8 30.8 26.3 Sales & Cust.Service 15.5 8.5 5.5 14.2 13.9 12.4 Proc& Plant Operatives 1.2 11.8 0.5 2.8 9.3 5.9 Elementary Occupations 13.5 10.1 5.6 14.1 13.0 11.9 Total 2526 1989 853 1230 2424 4507 Programme type Advanced Apprenticeship 22.1 29.9 29.7 38.6 14.8 25.9 Apprenticeship 36.6 30.5 65.5 38.8 14.3 33.6 Total 4578 4174 1921 2860 3950 8731 Entry route progress to Advanced 12.4 12.6 6.6 18.8 10.2 12.6 Apprenticeship from Apprenticeship or Young Apprenticeship Return To WBL 5.3 2.0 2.0 3.8 5.9 3.7 Transfer From Another 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.7 Provider Or LSC Area Restart For Funding 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.8 3.8 2.2 Purposes (Same Programme) first time entrant to 73.7 75.7 86.3 70.3 65.5 74.5 Apprenticeship, Advanced Apprenticeship, Higher level Apprenticeship or Apprenticeship for Adults first time entrant onto E2E 3.6 4.2 0.0 2.2 12.4 3.9 or other non- Apprenticeship WBL programme Restart, Learner Has 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.7 Returned To The Programme After A Break In Learning Total 2797 2638 1829 2262 1326 5417 Source: Individual Learner Record

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Table 6.16: East Lindsey: subject breakdown of Employer Responsive training by age and gender 2008/9 (percentages of age and gender group) Subject Female Male 16-18 19-24 25+ All ages 16-18 19-24 25+ All ages Health, Public Services 9.4 16.2 26.7 20.4 1.6 3.0 6.0 3.8 and Care Science and 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mathematics Agriculture, Horticulture 0.3 1.6 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.3 3.9 2.4 and Animal Care Engineering and 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 21.6 16.5 12.6 16.4 Manufacturing Technologies Construction, Planning 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.3 10.0 18.1 14.0 and the Built Environment Information and 0.4 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.3 1.0 3.1 1.6 Communication Technology Retail and Commercial 12.2 11.7 14.8 13.4 2.5 7.2 13.2 8.2 Enterprise Leisure, Travel and 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.7 Tourism Arts, Media and 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Publishing History, Philosophy and 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Theology Social Sciences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Languages, Literature 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 and Culture Education and Training 0.4 0.5 4.8 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 Preparation for Life and 29.9 28.2 23.6 26.1 33.1 32.1 20.7 28.0 Work Business, Administration 17.6 18.1 17.8 17.8 2.6 7.1 11.5 7.5 and Law Unknown 26.6 20.2 8.2 15.1 21.1 17.0 6.7 14.2 Total 768 1457 2344 4569 1153 1403 1606 4162 Source: Individual Learner Record. For females, most training was relevant to administrative and secretarial, personal service and sales occupations, while for males, training was related to manual occupations (mainly skilled trades). The largest occupational category for 16-18 year olds was skilled manual occupations, and most training was concentrated into SOC major groups 4 to 6. For people aged 25 and over, ER training was personal service, sales and elementary occupations. Just over half of training aims were part of an apprenticeship, with the great majority of training for 16-18 year olds being part of an apprenticeship. Around three-quarters were first-time entrants to apprenticeship, with progressing to a higher-level apprenticeship. There was little difference by gender, but the youngest age group was more likely to be first time entrants.

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The broad subject classification of training aims delivered to East Lindsey residents is presented in Table 6.16 by age group within gender. For females, the largest subjects were preparation for life and work; health, public services and care; business administration and law and retail and commercial enterprise. The percentage of women studying for health, public services and care- related training increased from under a tenth of 16-18 year olds to more than a quarter of women aged 25 and over. For males, preparation for life and work is again the largest category in each age group, but engineering and manufacturing technologies; and construction, planning and the built environment are the next largest categories of training. The percentage of trainees engaged in the former type of training declines with age, but the percentage aged 25 and over engaged in construction related training is markedly higher than for 16-18 year olds. The percentage of males studying on business-related training aims also increases with age.

The geographical pattern of travel to Employer Responsive training opportunities is depicted in a series of flow maps in Figures 6.14 to 6.22. The general message is that there are similarities to the geographical patterns for Learning Responsive training with many people travelling outside the district to neighbouring large towns (notably Lincoln and Boston), but that the size of the flows are smaller and there is greater diversity of flows. There are more short-distance flows of trainees involving larger numbers of people. Female trainees appear less likely than males to travel longer distances and to be more likely to obtain training in Louth and the Skegness area. The distance travelled appears to decline with age. NVQ level 1, 3 and 4 training appears to involve little longer- distance travel. Trainees are most likely to have to travel longer distances to access NVQ Level 2 training. The distance travelled to Employer Responsive training is summarised for different types of learner resident in East Lindsey by type of training in Table 6.17. Overall, 42.7 per cent of trainees living in East Lindsey travel less than 5 kilometres to training, but nearly a quarter have to travel more than 25 kilometres. A fifth travel between 10 and 25 kilometres. Training of NVQ Level 1 is most likely to be available within 5 kilometres of the trainee’s home, while higher-level training involves longer travel, but nearly an eighth of those studying on an aim of NVQ level 2 travel 50 kilometres or more to train. Apprenticeships tend to be more likely to involve a shorter journey. Males tend to travel further than females, while people aged 16-18 experience the longest journeys to undertake training. People living in the Coastal Action Zone (Table6.18) are more likely to have both short and long journeys to training than the average for East Lindsey. This is most apparent for training of NVQ Level 4 or above.

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Figure 6.14: Males – ER training Figure 6.15: Females – ER training

Figure 6.16: Aged 16 to 18 – ER training Figure 6.17: aged 19 to 24 – ER training

Source: Individual Learner Record 2008/09

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Figure 6.18: Aged 25 and over – ER training

Figure 6.19: NVQ Level 1 – ER training Figure 6.20: NVQ Level 2 – ER training

Source: Individual Learner Record 2008/09

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Figure 6.21: NVQ Level 3 – ER training Figure 6.22: NVQ Level 4 – ER training

Source: Individual Learner Record 2008/09

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Table 6.17: East Lindsey residents – distance travelled to Employer Responsive training 2008/9. Total Percentage travelling in each distance band (Km) 0-4.99 5 -9.99 10-24.99 25-49.99 50+ Type of training Advanced Apprenticeship 2011 35.5 14.7 25.3 15.3 9.2 Apprenticeship 2901 45.0 14.6 20.5 13.2 6.7 None Of The Above 3376 45.0 12.9 16.2 12.4 13.4 Total 8288 42.7 13.9 19.9 13.4 10.1 Level of training Level 1 and Entry 1084 48.4 12.6 18.5 11.3 9.1 Level 2 4272 43.2 13.7 18.7 12.9 11.5 Level 3 1484 38.1 14.8 22.1 15.4 9.6 Level 4, 5 or Higher 58 20.7 15.5 19.0 25.9 19.0 Other 1390 42.4 14.8 22.4 13.8 6.5 Total 8288 42.7 13.9 19.9 13.4 10.1 Learner characteristics Female 4442 50.2 15.3 18.1 10.6 5.9 Male 3846 34.0 12.4 22.0 16.7 14.9 Persons 8288 42.7 13.9 19.9 13.4 10.1 16-18 1848 25.9 13.3 27.4 23.4 10.1 19-24 2629 45.4 14.9 18.8 11.0 10.0 25+ 3790 49.1 13.6 16.9 10.3 10.1 White 8032 42.5 14.1 19.8 13.5 10.1 Mixed parentage 57 45.6 12.3 15.8 15.8 10.5 Asian or Asian British 67 74.6 1.5 16.4 1.5 6.0 Black or Black British 16 43.8 0.0 25.0 31.3 0.0 Chinese and Other 21 23.8 9.5 61.9 0.0 4.8 Source: Individual Learner Record

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Table 6.18: Coastal Action Zone residents – distance travelled to Employer Responsive training 2008/9. Total Percentage travelling in each distance band (Km) 0-4.99 5 -9.99 10-24.99 25-49.99 50+ Type of training Advanced Apprenticeship 1078 37.4 18.6 20.4 12.0 11.6 Apprenticeship 1647 50.6 16.6 13.7 12.1 7.0 None Of The Above 1903 47.9 14.9 12.2 9.9 15.1 Total 4628 46.4 16.4 14.6 11.1 11.4 Level of training Level 1 and Entry 654 54.4 14.5 12.8 8.0 10.2 Level 2 2350 46.2 16.0 14.3 10.6 12.9 Level 3 789 39.8 17.9 17.2 13.6 11.5 Level 4, 5 or Higher 28 17.9 14.3 21.4 21.4 25.0 Other 807 47.8 17.6 14.5 12.6 7.4 Total 4628 46.4 16.4 14.6 11.1 11.4 Learner characteristics Female 2471 53.7 17.2 12.7 8.7 7.6 Male 2157 38.0 15.4 16.8 13.9 15.9 Persons 4628 46.4 16.4 14.6 11.1 11.4 16-18 925 28.4 16.3 19.7 21.1 14.5 19-24 1524 50.4 17.1 14.0 7.7 10.8 25+ 2175 51.2 15.9 12.9 9.4 10.6 White 4488 46.2 16.6 14.6 11.2 11.5 Mixed parentage 23 30.4 30.4 8.7 4.3 26.1 Asian or Asian British 45 86.7 2.2 6.7 0.0 4.4 Black or Black British 11 54.5 0.0 0.0 45.5 0.0 Chinese and Other 5 80.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Individual Learner Record 6.6 Conclusion This chapter has analysed the data available in the Individual Learner Record in order to present a picture of training provided to residents of East Lindsey and the Coastal Action Zone and the way in which residents access these opportunities. It is clear that people living in East Lindsey have longer journeys to access training than the average for England. This is partly because of the general tendency for these distances to be longer in more rural and peripheral areas with sparsely distributed population and small settlements. However, distances appear to be slightly longer in East Lindsey than in similar types of area, because training activity tends to be geographically concentrated in a small number of locations. Because it is even more peripheral than the rest of the district, travel-to-study distances are longer on average in the Coastal Action Zone. Residents of the district predominantly have to travel beyond its borders in order to access Learner Responsive training. The main locations of LR training are in Lincoln, Grimsby and Boston. These tend to draw from the west, north-east and south-west of the district respectively. Training within the towns of the district (e.g. Louth, Skegness and Mablethorpe) is on a smaller scale and serves the neighbouring areas.

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Employer Responsive training activity is much more evenly distributed geographically across the district. Thus, journey-to-train distances tend to be shorter. Low level ER training is much more likely to be available locally, but higher-level training still involves undertaking a longer journey, often to towns in neighbouring districts.

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7. Pupils’ Aspirations, Career Choices, and Geographical Preferences 7.1 Introduction Implicit in the notion of a low-skills equilibrium is that skills and aspirations are being constrained in some way. People see few opportunities to progress in the labour market and consequently fail to invest in their own skills. This is an economically rational decision because many of the skills obtained will be surplus to the requirements of the local labour market. From the interviews with various stakeholders this was mentioned as a potential problem for the Coastal Zone. In order to assess whether conditions were driving down aspirations a survey was conducted of 175 year 10 pupils at three schools in the Coastal Zone:  Birkbeck;  Tennyson; and  St Clements. The questionnaire which was distributed is reproduced in Annex C. The questionnaire was designed to elicit the Year 10 pupils’ views about what they wanted to do when they had completed Year 11 and gauge their views about developing their careers locally. As a self-completion questionnaire it is difficult to be certain about the representativeness of the findings but they nevertheless give an indication of pupils’ labour market aspirations. 7.2 Job Preferences on Exiting Full-time Education Pupils were asked to indicate the type of job they would like to do when they were older according to the following classification of occupations:

A: engineer, doctor, lawyer, architect, accountant, teacher, scientist, etc.; B social worker, technician, computer operator, nurse, graphic designer, etc.; C: administrative officer, secretary, receptionist, clerk, etc.;

D: bricklayer, technician, car mechanic, welder, etc.; E: bus conductor, checkout operator, hairdresser, care assistant, crèche assistant, etc.; F: porter, bus driver, cleaner, postal delivery worker, courier, road sweeper, etc.

The classification is derived from the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) used to measure jobs according to the level of skill they encompass. Figure 7.1. shows the jobs the pupils aspired to. As can be seen, just under half of the pupils aspired to managerial and professional occupations (A and B in the classification above) with a significant share interested in working in skilled trades jobs (D in the classification above) and semi-skilled work (occupation E). In general, pupils aspired to work in jobs which are relatively high skilled.

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Figure 7.1 Occupations in which Pupils would like to Work in the Future

DK / NS

C Desired Occupation Desired

0 5 10 15 20 25

% pupils

Source: Coastal Zone *Survey of Pupils Parents will exert a strong influence over the aspirations of pupils in part because they will be a principal source of their information about the labour market. Pupils may also be drawn to the jobs in which their parents are employed. Using the same classification of occupations as above, pupils were asked to specify the job of their mother and father respectively. Table 7.1 shows the career preferences of pupils according to their occupation of their father. It indicates that pupils who want a job in a professional / managerial profession are more likely to have parents from a similar background. But it is also apparent that parental occupation has only a limited influence over career aspirations at Year 10 with a significant share of pupils who wanted to pursue a managerial / professional occupation coming from families where the parent is employed in a semi-skilled occupation.

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Table 7.1: Pupils’ Career Preferences by Parents’ Jobs (row percentages)

Occupation of Parents (Father)

Pupils A B C D E F DK Number Total career preference A 35 13 5 35 3 3 8 40 100 B 20 10 7 20 0 7 37 41 100 C 29 14 14 14 14 0 14 7 100 D 17 13 4 22 4 17 22 23 100 E 9 0 4 39 0 0 48 23 100 F 14 0 0 14 0 4 67 7 100 DK / NA 18 6 6 15 14 43 0 34 100 All Pupils 21 9 6 25 0 25 15 175 100 Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils Pupils were asked why they wanted to pursue the job they had chosen. As Figure 7.2 reveals income level was a strong influence but it is also clear that pupils also wanted to a job which was interesting or which reflected an existing interest.

Figure 7.2 Reasons for Choosing Selected Career

Good money It is interesting work I have always wanted to do it Good career prospects Regular hours A friend or family member does this job Always jobs available It does not need any further qualifications There are no other options available to me Other

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils 7.3 Importance of Staying-on at School Pupils were asked about whether they thought it important to stay on in the sixth form or to obtain an Apprenticeship to pursue their preferred future job (see Table 7.2a and b). The data reveals:

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 that overall around half of all pupils thought it important to stay onto the sixth form, this increased where the pupil had a clear idea of the job they wanted when they left education;

 those who wanted a managerial / professional occupation were more likely to respond that it was important to stay on at school;  there were a substantial percentage of pupils who were uncertain as to whether it was important to stay on at school or undertake an Apprenticeship in order to pursue their preferred career, especially so in relation to Apprenticeships.

Table 7.2a: Importance of Staying-on at School to Pursue Preferred Career (row %)

Stay on at 6th form

Chosen Career Yes No DK Number Total A 65 8 28 40 100 B 59 12 29 41 100 C 71 0 29 7 100 D 57 26 17 23 100 E 48 18 34 23 100 F 57 0 43 7 100 DK / NA 32 15 53 34 100 All Pupils 54 12 34 175 100 Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils

Table 7.2b: Importance of Undertaking an Apprenticeship to Pursue Preferred Career (row %)

Importance of Apprenticeship

Chosen Career Yes No DK Number Total A 38 18 45 40 100 B 44 7 49 41 100 C 71 0 29 7 100 D 57 17 26 23 100 E 35 25 40 23 100 F 57 0 43 7 100 DK / NA 32 15 53 34 100 All 42 10 47 175 100 Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils Regardless of whether pupils thought that it was important to stay on at school they were also asked if they would like to stay on at school at the end of Year 11 (see Table 7.3). It is apparent that regardless of the occupation they wanted to enter, most pupils thought that they wanted to stay on to the sixth form. Where pupils did not want to stay on at school their reasons related mainly to wanting a job with training and wish to earn some money.

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Table 7.3 Whether Pupils Wanted to Stay-on at School (row %)

Stay on at School

Chosen Career Yes No DK Number Total A 78 15 8 40 100 B 71 22 7 41 100 C 86 14 0 7 100 D 70 30 0 23 100 E 91 9 0 23 100 F 86 14 0 7 100 DK / NA 59 26 15 34 100 All 74 20 6 175 100 Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils Wanting to stay-on at school and actually doing so are separate issues, but as Table 7.4 shows most pupils though that it was at least likely, if not very likely, that they would stay on at school. Again this finding was true across the range of occupations pupils wanted to pursue when they were older.

Table 7.4 Likelihood of Staying on at School (row %)

Likelihood of staying on in sixth form

Preferred Very likely Likely At least likely Number career A 28 50 78 40 B 34 41 76 41 C 43 29 71 7 D 17 43 61 23 E 39 52 91 23 F 29 71 100 7 DK / NA 29 50 79 34 All 30 45 75 175 Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils 7.4 Pupils’ Travel Preferences The survey also asked about where pupils would be willing to study. The results shown in Figure 7.3 suggest that pupils would be prepared to be mobile to study a course they were interested in. The data also indicates how important convenience is insofar as the most common response was “one bus ride from home”.

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Figure 7.3 Willingness to Travel to Learn

One bus ride from home Would move away from home An hour from home Don't Know Walking distance from home Half an hour from home Longer than an hour from home Cycling distance from home

0 5 10 15 20

% pupils

Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils The data also indicate that pupils would be willing to move travel some distance if required. The table below provides a matrix of a pupil’s current location to where they would be willing to study (see Tables 7.5).

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Table 7.5: Locations Willing to Travel to Study (number of pupils)

Current Location Number of Location willing to travel to study pupils Wragby Spalding Market Rasen Alford Horncastle Cleethorpes Mablethorpe Louth Grimsby Lincoln Boston Skegness

Marshchapel 4 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 Chapel St Leonards 4 1 1 1 2 2 Grainthorpe 5 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 1 1 2 Ingoldmells 5 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 Wainfleet 5 1 1 1 1 3 4 Sutton 6 1 1 4 2 2 2 1 3 North Somercotes 8 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 4 3 4 Mablethorpe 30 1 3 4 2 4 12 10 13 4 6 10 Skegness 69 4 4 6 9 9 16 23 20 38 46 41

Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils

Note: Only shows pupils from those towns and villages where there are four or more respondents

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Table 7.5 shows that pupils are willing to travel to larger centres of population to study, although there is also a strong preference to study near to home. Figure 7.4 shows that if a course led to good job opportunities pupils would be willing to travel. Figure 7.4: Reasons for Studying Some Distance from Home

The course leading to good job prospects

The course I really want to study

Nothing, I want to study here

If my friends studied there

Better transport making it easier to travel to

Other

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% pupils

Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils 7.5 Living and Working in Lincolnshire Finally, pupils were asked about the importance of living and working in Lincolnshire when they are older. The results reveal that for around a third of pupils this was not important; presumably they would be willing to settle wherever they were able to pursue their chosen career. Overall, around 40 per cent thought it important to stay in Lincolnshire; this share went up to 55 per cent for those who wanted to pursue a managerial / professional career.

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Table 7.6 The Importance of Staying in Lincolnshire by Career Preference (row %) Importance of staying in Lincolnshire Career Very Quite Not Not DK Number Total (%) choice important important important important at all A 20 35 33 5 8 40 100 B 7 41 34 5 12 41 100 C 29 0 57 14 0 7 100 D 13 30 30 13 13 23 100 E 22 48 26 0 4 23 100 F 29 43 0 29 0 7 100 DK / NA 15 24 29 9 26 4 100 All Pupils 16 34 30 7 12 175 100 Source: Coastal Zone Survey of Pupils 7.6 Conclusion The evidence shows that at Year 10 pupils have varied career preferences. There is certainly no indication that the state of the labour market in the Coastal Zone has lowered pupils’ career preference. Amongst those with aspirations to become managers and professionals there is a relatively high share of those who think it important to live their lives in Lincolnshire. Taken at face value the evidence suggests that the Coastal Zone has, at Year 10, a supply of bright young pupils who want to establish themselves in high skilled, interesting work in Lincolnshire. The evidence presented elsewhere in this report suggests that this may be a difficult aspiration to realise, at least so in the Coastal Zone, but at Year 10 this has not filtered through to affect the preferences of young people.

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8. The Barriers and Facilitators to Training in the Coastal Zone 8.1 Introduction In Chapter 2 reference was made to the situation where a relatively low demand for, and supply of, skill can feed off one another. So, from the perspective of the East Lindsey Coastal Zone what are the principal barriers to more training and skills development taking place? This is an important question because if policy, at either a national, regional, or local level has this aim, there is a need to know what barriers will need to be overcome if this goal is to be achieved. Similarly, it is desirable to have information about what might facilitate more training and skills development occurring.

The extent to which there is a skills mismatch in the Coastal Zone is difficult to gauge. Evidence from National Employers Skills Survey 2007 – downloaded from the NESS research tools website which provides data at the local authority district level 32 – shows that:

 employers in East Lindsey report hard-to-fill vacancies to a similar extent as employers in England as a whole (34 per cent of employers report hard-to-fill vacancies in East Lindsey compared with 36 per cent in England);

 of those employers with hard-to-fill vacancies a higher percentage are likely to report skill- shortages in East Lindsey than England (66 per cent versus 56 per cent);  slightly fewer employers in East Lindsey report that their existing staff are not fully proficient at their current job than in England as a whole (13 per cent versus 15 per cent). It should be noted that these are based on a small number of observations and should be treated with caution and as indicative rather than definitive of the situation in East Lindsey. These data are consistent with responses from the interviews carried out with employers many of which reported difficulties recruiting people with certain sets of skills (see Chapter 4). Other data which provides an indication of skill mismatches suggests that overall skill shortages are not a major issue. The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings reveals that that wage rates are lower for people in East Lindsey compared with either Lincolnshire as a whole or for the country as whole. Average gross weekly wages in 2009 were £383.2 in East Lindsey compared with £423.7 in Lincolnshire and £489.8 in England. Moreover, wage rates had risen less in East Lindsey (by -0.5 per cent) compared to 3.1 per cent in Lincolnshire or 1.3 per cent in England (2008/9). This suggests that skill shortages are not as severe as elsewhere in the country.

If the aim is to increase the demand for skills and training, what are the barriers and facilitators? These can be divided between demand and supply side ones as follows:  demand side examples: . employers’ product market strategies; . employer characteristics; . perceived cost versus benefit;  supply-side examples:

32 Accessed in May 2010

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. level of demand of individuals for training and skills development; . funding systems; . levels of competition. These are now considered in more detail. 8.2 Barriers to Training 8.2.1 Demand Side The UK Commission for Employment and Skills Collective Measures Study33 identified a number of barriers to employers providing more training and skills development. The list of those identified has been modified to take into account the various barriers mentioned by employers and other stakeholders in the Coastal Zone (see Box 8.1).

Research undertaken in the USA suggests that the particular problems employers in rural areas face in accessing training – or indeed recognising a need for training – results in them adopting low value- added strategies which effectively lock an area into a low-skill equilibrium.34 This can also result in areas becoming less attractive to the types of industry which, typically, national and regional economic development strategies are trying to promote. The evidence collected from stakeholders and employers suggests that this broadly true for Coastal Zone, though it should be noted that there are beacons of good practice in the area which should not be ignored. Examples were provided of the extent to which, for example, employers in the hospitality industry were effectively locked into providing a relatively low level of service.

33 Stanfield, C., Sloan., J. Cox, A., Stone, I. (2009) Review of Collective Measures, UK Commission for Employment and Skills, Wath-upon-Dearne, http://www.ukces.org.uk/upload/pdf/UKCES%20CM%20A4%20Main%20Report%20Web_1.pdf

34 Green. G.P. (2007) Workforce Development Networks in Rural Areas: Building the High Road, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham

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Box 8.1 Barriers to Training in Rural, Coastal, and Peripheral Areas GENERAL ISSUES Management time as a Barrier: Firm management is itself a barrier, because of the limited time and resources that key personnel can devote to training. Management Skills and Management Strategy: There may simply be a lack of management skills, which results in a failure to invest optimally in training (which may be recognised by peer groups or, in retrospect, by the managers themselves). Related to this, managers with particular qualifications or background may impose a goal on an organisation which is inappropriate. Managements’ Social Skills and Social Capital: Social skills enhance the entrepreneur’s ability to interact effectively with venture capitalists, potential partners, employees, customers, etc. Social capital refers to the sum of all resources potentially available to individuals because of their relationships with others. Managements’ Views about the Contribution of Training: Employer may fail to see a link between training and their long-term business strategy. Influence of Staff on Training: Achieving the optimal training outcome may be difficult where staff have negative attitudes to training for a variety of reasons (e.g. staff feel threatened, a fear of failing to learn the new skills), or where labour turnover is high. Imperfect Information: Employers may lack sufficient, reliable information about the quality and content of learning opportunities which are available. Capital Market Imperfections: Capital market imperfections can form a barrier to funding training. Firms operating in price sensitive, low margin markets, may find it particularly difficult to find the resources needed for investment in training. Other Institutional Imperfections: For instance, the continued uncertainty about the relevance and value of different types of qualifications, particularly at the lower level, as well as disagreement about who should provide basic skills, such as literacy and numeracy. Short Termism: If the stock market is short-termist this may lead employers to discount the future more heavily (i.e. attach less importance to financial flows which are further in the future), and will be more risk averse with respect to investments including those related to skills development and training. Small Firm Issues: Small firms are a microcosm in which a wide variety of such barriers are bought together – management skills and time, access to funding for training, lack of information, costs of accounting, higher risk and higher discount rates, etc. RURAL / PERIPHERY SPECIFIC BARRIERS Industrial Mix: often rural / peripheral areas have low relatively high concentrations of low skill industries or industries with a limited demand for training SME concentration: typically a large percentage of employers which are SMEs so the issues which relate to SMEs listed above tend to be amplified in rural / peripheral areas Lack of economies of scale: Insufficient volume of training to make in-house training economically viable, and a lack of a critical mass of employers to spread the cost of training over a sufficiently large number of employers Relative cost of training / limited training supply: it can be relatively expensive to send people on training courses because of the distances which need to be travelled to the training provider Lack of social capital networks: employers often have limited opportunities to liaise with other organisations to learn about good practice Limited labour supply: can prohibit employers shifting into higher value-added markets Seasonality of employment: sometimes the employment relationship is tenuous in seasonal industries such as hospitality such that employers are unwilling to invest in transient labour

Source: Adapted from Hogarth et al., 2009

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Employment in the area, outside of the public sector, is mainly dependent upon small enterprises. Training can prove exceedingly difficult to arrange in small organisations because:

 there may be less recognition about the potential benefits of training (i.e. there will be little peer group pressure for training amongst managers);  it can be difficult to release people for training –either externally or internally – because there is no one to cover for a person’s absence; and  cost can prove an issue where training costs are relatively high compared with overall levels of business turnover and there are no economies of scale.

For these reasons it is often necessary to find new ways of training in SMEs, including an SME such as expectation that the employee should undertake some of the training in their own time (especially if it is not company specific) and the use of distance and electronic learning facilities.

In an area where skill shortages exist employers can be reluctant to train because of they are not sure whether they will benefit from the training if a person leaves for employment elsewhere. This, however, did not figure prominently in employer explanations for their caution in relation to training. The cost issue – which is particularly acute for SMEs – is a general one mentioned by employers and relates in large part to the indirect costs of training, such as travel and time lost at work. For certain courses employers need to send people significant distances (e.g. to Nottingham) and the travel to learn analysis revealed that there are examples of people traveling quite far afield to access particular courses.

Employers’ training cost data are not available for the East Lindsey Coastal Area, but the National Employers Skill Survey 2005, which collected detailed training cost information, provides an estimate for different types of generic area. The East Lindsey Coastal Zone has been characterised as area which is a mix of Rural Small Town and Fringe (Sparse) and Rural Village and Dispersed (Sparse). From this it is possible to infer something about employers’ training costs in the Coastal Zone. In general, the data indicate that the cost of training per employee by employers is more or less the same as areas which dissimilar to the Coastal Zone (see Figure 8.1) but there are sectoral differences.

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Figure 8.1 Differences in Employer Training Costs between Areas Similar to the Coastal Zone and Other Areas

All

Other Community and Social Services

Health and Social Care

Education

Business Services

Transport and Communication

Hospitality

Distribution

Construction

Manufacturing

Agriculture etc.

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200

Difference in training costs per employee between areas similar to the Coastal Zone and other areas (£)

Source: NESS2005 Notes: A minus figure indicates that less is spent training each employee in areas similar to the Coastal Zone

In rural areas employers can have difficulties accessing work based learning because providers are unwilling to travel far afield or because the costs of WBL are prohibitively expensive once travel costs are factored in. The evidence from the interviews with employers – and selected stakeholders – suggest that this is not a problem faced by employers in the Coastal Zone. In the interviews with employers it was mentioned that transport was a potential barrier to off-the- job training being provided. Transport imposed costs on the employer not only in the cost of actual travel but also travelling times which could be substantial. The research evidence suggests that transport costs – alongside travel times and the frequency of transport – can affect the decision of young people to continue on in further education.35 8.2.2 The Supply Side

35 Steer Davies Gleave (2002) Transport for Students in Further Education: Executive summary and good practice guide, DfES, Sheffield.

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Training providers operating in sparsely populated areas face a number of challenges. The former Learning and Skills Council in the early 2000s looked at this issue and highlighted a number of factors which affect further education colleges in areas similar to the Coastal Zone (see Table 8.1). The report considers at length the additional costs colleges face but is unable to quantify these. Other evidence conducted more or less concurrently with this study undertook a quantitative assessment albeit based on rather limited data.36 The study used measures of financial health of FE institutions, assuming that if sparse areas face additional (financial) burdens this should be reflected in financial health. But the data did not yield what might be considered to be the expected result insofar as there was little correlation between sparsity and financial health and qualitative factors such as the ratio of non-qualified to qualified staff.37 It is not clear, however, whether transaction costs are included. That is the cost of actually engaging an individual learner, such as the amount of time communicating courses, contacting employers, etc. The LSC report also highlights a number of advantages to operating in rural areas, including limited competition, relatively low levels of staff turnover, a strong sense of community which can encourage people to learn (although a strong sense of community could also act as a disincentive to learning), and small class sizes which can prove attractive to learners. In a demand led system there are also system effects to take into consideration. For any provider setting up new or additional provision there is a risk attached to recouping that investment. In a sparsely populated area even a small drop out from a training course can result in a course becoming financially non-viable. It was mentioned by stakeholders that courses had been provided in Skegness in the past for which there turned out to be relatively limited demand and the courses were discontinued. In a system which, since the Leitch Review, has become more demand oriented training providers may become even more risk averse, especially if there is a greater economic rent to be obtained from the provision of courses in more densely populated areas.

36 Frontier Economics (2002) A Study of Area Costs and Sparsity, Report to the LSC, October. 37 Apprenticeship Task Force (n.d) Factors Influencing Apprenticeships Participation in Rural Areas, Rural and Regional Dimension Working Group: Final Report

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Table 8.1: Barriers to Training in Sparsely Populated Areas

Issue Characteristics of Barrier

Low number of potential Learners A sparse population usually results in low learner numbers and small class sizes which means that running some courses is not economically viable

Sole provider status Colleges and providers are usually a long way from other colleges and providers, and are expected to offer a broad, diverse and inclusive curriculum. Many colleges and providers are asking for a definition of such a curriculum.

Cost of provision In sparsely populated areas, many courses are uneconomic to run.

Transport The lack or high cost of transport

Sparsely distributed small- to medium sized Providers have particular problems recruiting work employers based learners because employers are sparsely distributed and their workforces tend to small

Visibility of learners who need help with their basic In small communities, it is particularly difficult to skills reach those who need help with their basic skills owing to concerns that they will be identified and experience prejudice from others.

Source: Issues Affecting Education and Training in Sparsely Populated Areas. LSC May 2003; p 5 There are also system effects to consider. Within a VET system which has become increasingly demand-side oriented, providers may be cautious about providing additional provision lest demand is insufficient to recoup the investment that extra provision entails. With the introduction of Minimum Levels of Performance (MLP) – which is widely considered to have done much to drive up the quality of provision – providers need to ensure that their provision is sufficient to meet completion rates established under MLP or face the prospect of a course being no longer funded. Hence providers will be unwilling to offer provision unless they are convinced that they can meet MLP criteria which may, at the margin, result in colleges deciding not to provide courses in more sparsely populated areas. 8.3 Facilitating Training and Skills Development in Coastal Area 8.3.1 Evidence from Other Coastal Areas in England In order to gauge how training and skills development might be facilitated evidence was collected from a number of other coastal areas to see how they had addressed this issue. These included:  North Norfolk  Devon

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 North Devon  Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly  Kings Lynn and West Norfolk  South Hams With the exception of the Devon County Council area as a whole, these areas are local authority districts (including some from Devon) that, based on the ONS LA classification, are similar to East Lindsey. In spite of historic and demographic differences between the coastal areas considered above, these areas share a number of challenges that can be associated with their peripheral location. There are, therefore, number of recurrent themes across coastal areas’ plans for development. Ensuring that growth is achieved in a sustainable manner can be seen as a global concern that is by no means exclusive to coastal or rural areas. Nonetheless, it is clear that the strategic plans promoted by coastal areas consider the long-term effects of the actions proposed as well as their short-term environmental effects. This can be seen not only in plans to develop the renewable energy sector but also in plans to foster a low-carbon economy. Another common theme is the aim of moving towards a knowledge economy by creating the conditions for ‘high-skills’ businesses to re-locate or be generated in the area; by improving the skills level of the population; and by creating partnerships between these two stakeholders and the public sector. This aim goes hand-in-hand with raising the aspirations of the population, and in particular of young people who typically face either fewer career prospects in coastal areas or the need to look for opportunities elsewhere. All these issues are to a great extent dependent on the communication links that residents of coastal areas have with other regions and, therefore, aims to improve both transport and telecommunication links have an important place in the strategic plans developed by the local authorities. It is also apparent that skills are not viewed in isolation. Rather skills are seen as one component in a wider strategy to either foster new industrial development or raise the performance of indigenous industry. The wider policies relate to housing, environmental policy, development of the physical infrastructure, improving broadband access, etc. Although developing the skills base of the economy is a priority in all of the coastal areas considered, there is no apparent easy solution to the provision of education and training in sparsely populated areas. In some instances there are satellite colleges of further education institutions which have their base in more densely populated localities and provide a narrow range of courses suited to local need. In other instances, learners are expected to travel with some areas providing subsidised transport to learners; (although in the face of public spending cuts it may not be possible for all such subsidies to be continued).

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8.3.2 Evidence from Abroad The UK training system is a market oriented one which is voluntarist. By this is meant that the system is meant to respond to the needs of the market by producing economically valuable skills (i.e. the demand led element), and it is voluntarist because employers (and learners) have a choice whether or not they engage with the system. Whilst policy makers appear to be content that this general framework is an appropriate one there are a number of pressing concerns relating to persuading more employers and individual learners to engage with the VET system, and for employers (and to some extent individual learners) to pick more of the cost of training. It is evident with programmes such as Train to Gain that the State has been subsidising training to a greater degree than hitherto. Increasingly there has been an interest in high performance work organisations or high performance work practices which makes the link between the provision of training and skills development and organisational performance. It is not just training per se which is important but the utilisation of the skills possessed by the workforce which needs to be addressed too.

The previous section addressed how other coastal areas in England had addressed the problem of supplying skills but there is also a need to look beyond the shores of the UK. Australia is interesting in this regard because, like the UK, it has a marked oriented, voluntarist VET system and it too is concerned about the level of State expenditure on training. The Australian example is interesting because it explicitly recognises the need to develop skills – and encourage their deployment - in relatively low value-added sectors of the economy which generate a high number of jobs. One of the projects in Australia, for example, is concerned with social care, which is particularly apposite to the Coastal Zone.38 In Australia a number of demonstration projects have been commissioned with seek to gauge the extent to which industry (or region) wide networks of key stakeholders can be used to engage employers in the process of investing and effectively utilising skills (see panel). The benefit of this approach is that increasingly cedes responsibility to the key stakeholders within an industry / locality with the support of other key institutional stakeholders. Implicit in the model is the idea that employers will, collectively, meet the cost of training with the State required to take a less interventionist role.39

38 Spink, A. (2006) Queensland Aged Care Skill Ecosystem (Supply Chain) Project: Blue Care Suncoast Hinterland Region, Queensland Community Services and Health Industries Training Council Inc.

39 Jonathan Payne (2007) Skills in Context: What Can the UK Learn from Australia's Skills Ecosystem Projects?, Skope, Universities of Oxford and Cardiff, http://www.skope.ox.ac.uk/publications/skills- context-what-can-uk-learn-australias-skills-ecosystem-projects

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The Australian Skills Ecosystem Approach The Australian labour market is a relatively flexible one, like the UK, which faces the problem of how to tackle declining levels of participation in vocational education and training and a relatively large number of jobs in low skill, low value markets. There had also been a trend towards the State increasingly funding vocational education and training. Following the publication of the Beyond Flexibility report in the early 2000s, demonstration projects have been established to promote the concept of skill ecosystems. In the Australian system. It is described as follows: “The ecosystem approach, unlike traditional training delivery, grapples with the relationship between business performance and specific skills, knowledge, and ways of working. It aims to promote skill development at the same time as ensuring that those skills are effectively nurtured at the workplace” (p4., Skills Ecosystem National Project: Mod-term evaluation report). These can either be industry or region specific, or both. The early evaluations suggest that ecosystems take time to develop and most effectively tackle both demand and supply-side issues where there is a breadth of stakeholder engagement, the issues being addressed are a priority for all stakeholders, and the organisations initiating and managing the project have credibility within the industrial sector. The evaluations also point to the need for publicly funded activities to have measurable objectives but these should be set with a three to five-year horizon. A benefit of the skills eco-system approach is that focuses on the role of employers to take ownership of skills and training in their industry whilst providing access to support and expertise from a number of agencies as they seek to improve their business performance. Further information: http://www.skillecosystem.net/about/

Similarly, the creation of Skillnets in Ireland has had some success in engaging employers in the provision of vocational education and training. Skillnets are publicly funded enterprise led bodies supporting workplace learning. A Skillnet Learning Network is a group of companies working together to provide training to their collective employees. They fall under the National Networks Programme in the Department of Enterprise Training and Employment and comprise cross-regional and cross-sectoral networks. Skillnets were introduced in 2001, following a pilot programme which ran between 1991-2001, and initially funded to 2005 and then extended to 2010 (with a budget of €55m) and further expanded in 2007 when their budget was increased to €115m. Since their initial introduction in 1999 200 Training Networks have been funded which have supported around 18,000 employers, and reached around 150,000 employees (by 2006). Under the Training Networks Programme, up to 75 per cent of the costs of all eligible network activities were provided for a given period. This allowed enterprises to carry out a wide range of learning, development and networking activities to achieve a step change in performance and skills.40

40 Accel, Accel Programme: Final Evaluation 2006-2008, Exodea Europe, 2008; Skillnets, Case Studies 2006 -2007, Skillnets, Dublin, 2007; Skillnets, Measuring the Impact of Training for the Low Skilled, Skillnets, Dublin, 2007; Skillnets, The Training Networks Programme: Boosting Skills and Productivity, Skillnets, Dublin, 2008

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Skillnets are described as follows on the website http://www.skillnets.ie/skillnets/about/index.html: About Skillnets

Skillnets is a state funded, enterprise-led support body dedicated to the promotion and facilitation of training and upskilling as key elements in sustaining Ireland's national competitiveness. Skillnets supports and funds networks of enterprises to engage in training under the Training Networks Programme. These networks, now referred to as 'Skillnets', are led and managed by the enterprises themselves to design, manage and deliver specific training programmes across a broad range of industry and service sectors nationwide. The networks receive grants drawn from the National Training Fund thereby enabling network member companies to avail of significant discounts on market training rates. The member companies also contribute to the grant aided programme with match funding to a ratio agreed by the network and Skillnets. Since 1999, Skillnets has facilitated over 43,000 Irish enterprises, in over 300 networks to improve the range, scope and quality of training and allowed over 200,000 employees to upskill and meet their work related training needs.

There is evidence that both Ecosystems and Skillnets approaches require a fair degree of public intervention to fund their activities and ensure that they are focussed on meeting the needs of the economy. Presently there is a shortage of cost-benefit information about these types of intervention, but for the time-being both Australia and Ireland appear to be willing to continue with these activities. Moreover, the UK Commission for Employment and Skills in its review of Collective Measures commented:

“Strengthening existing inter-employer networks and establishing a more comprehensive spread of networks appears, from the evidence, to be the most effective route to securing greater employer investment in training.”41

The lack of demand for training and skills can be transmitted to the workforce – or potential workforce – with the result that they fail to invest in training. The evidence here is mixed. The qualifications profile of the Coastal Zone is quite low and GCSE attainment is relatively low. On the other hand, A-level attainment is quite high. 8.4 Conclusion In many respects the principal barrier to more training and skills development taking place in East Lindsey is the relatively limited demand for skills (as reflected in the occupational structure described in Chapter 3) and a national vocational education and training system which is very much demand-side oriented. Hence employers have limited demand for skills and training – which can send a powerful signal to all learners in the area – and providers respond accordingly. For the

41 Stanfield, C., Sloan., J. Cox, A., Stone, I. (2009) Review of Collective Measures, UK Commission for Employment and Skills, Wath-upon-Dearne, http://www.ukces.org.uk/upload/pdf/UKCES%20CM%20A4%20Main%20Report%20Web_1.pdf

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Coastal Zone the priority would appear, in the first instance, that of building up the demand for skills. For this reason emphasis has been given to the type of approach which has been developed in countries such as Australia which not only seek to increase the demand for skills from employers but also assist them with effectively utilising those skills. The skills ecosystem approach, therefore, has sought to take the debate about how to stimulate the demand for skills a step further with the emphasis upon turning those skills into something economically valuable. It needs to be borne in mind that the process of bringing employers together to increase their demand for skills appears to require a catalyst – usually in the form of public sector assistance – to initiate activities and keep them focused on the needs of the local economy. What form that catalyst should take is open to discussion. A further education college is a possibility but the overall level of demand for training is likely to insufficient to make this option viable, alternatively it might be a centre of some kind which brought employers and other stakeholders together along the lines of the Australian example cited above.

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9. Conclusion 9.1 The Demand for, and Supply of, Skills in the Coastal Zone The 2008/9 recession has inevitably cast a shadow over the findings from the research project. Optimism about future levels of employment demand and the demand for training are likely to have been depressed by the severity of the economic downturn which commenced in 2008. This constrains the scope of policy makers, due to the pressure on public finances and, at the same time, makes the issue of promoting economic development in the Coastal Zone even more complicated. The research evidence, however, demonstrates how a failure to invest in skills can both slowdown the pace of recovery and contribute to further downturns.42 The particular strengths and weaknesses of the East Lindsey economy have been set out in the East Lindsey Baseline Study.43 The study comments on the district’s location as follows: “The geography of the District presents its own economic challenges, related to its low population density, distance from major employment centres and business markets and limitations of the District’s transport connectivity with the rest of the country”. These issues are exacerbated when looking at the coastal zone. The strategic response draws attention to the need for the Coastal Zone to:

 diversify into non agricultural activities;  provide support for the creation and development of micro businesses;  improve the tourist offer;

 upgrade the rural heritage;  encourage provision of training and skills development to assist long term sustainability in the area;

 support projects that addresses the issues of low levels of achievement and the out migration of young people. There is evidence, collected during the course of this study, that skill demand in the Coastal Zone is constrained by:  the sectoral composition of employment (e.g. the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the industrial composition of employment and is dependence upon sectors such as hospitality, etc.); and  the geographical position of the coastal zone. As a relatively rural / peripheral area, there is prima facie evidence that this drives down the demand for training.

42 Blake, N. et al., (2000) Employers Skill Survey: Evidence from Previous Studies, Skills Task Force / Department of Employment, Nottingham, 2000

43 ekosgen (2010) East Lindsey Baseline Study, East Lindsey District Council, Manby

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From discussions with stakeholders and employers for this project there is scope to increase training volumes but only to a limited degree and there are potentially significant costs attached to persuading employers to train more. Because many employers are SMEs which will have a numerically low demand for employees to be trained, those agencies charged with persuading employers to engage in training have to make many more contacts to obtain a unit increase in the numbers trained compared to the situation where there are more larger workplaces. There are also costs attached to the individual engaging in training, notably distance to learning and the need for access to transport, which means they will need to be wholly convinced of some form of return before they will make any investment. It was notable that despite many employers reporting skill shortages in the Coastal Zone, the provision of training to overcome this problem was not to the fore which might indicate a number of barriers which prevent them from training more. Cost is one barrier but there are others too. From the training supply side, trainers recognise that there is scope to increase the volume of training delivered but they are wary of the economics involved. On the supply-side some organisations recognise that there are opportunity costs to developing their base in the Coastal Zone when there are less risky opportunities elsewhere. If market x is providing a good return there is no need to enter market y if that market is considered to have certain risks attached to it. Other trainers point to provision made in the past which has failed to generate a sufficient number of trainees to warrant their continuation, and this may mean that they are reluctant to take further risks in supplying training.

On the basis of the evidence provided above there is evidence to suggest that the level of training and skills demand is less than it might be. In other words, training is likely to be sub-optimal. This is a view consistent with the low-skill equilibrium argument expounded elsewhere in this report. But it is difficult to be sure about the extent to which training and skills development is being suppressed by the factors pointed to above. The interviews with employers suggests that if additional training supply was locally available, then they might be tempted to engage in more training, but for many employers there was simply a lack of need to train people to serve their existing product market plans. The demand for skills is a derived demand. It derives principally from the sectoral composition of employment and the product market strategies of employers in those sectors. Whilst there are employers in the Coastal Zone who are innovative in their product market strategies – such as attempts to extend the duration of the holiday season through a range of unique product market offers – many employers serve either local markets or relatively low value markets. Research conducted for the National Skills Task Force in the early 2000s revealed that it was this combination which tended to drive down the demand for skills.44 Whilst this is the case many training providers will be cautious about extending provision.

44 Mason, G. (2004) Enterprise Product Strategies and Employer Demand for Skills in Britain: Evidence from the Employers Skill Survey, SKOPE Research Paper No.5, SKOPE, Oxford and Cardiff Universities

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Both national and regional economic policy regard raising the level of demand for skills, in part at least, as part of a process of industrial regeneration and diversification. New Industry New Jobs (NINJ) and emda’s Regional Economic Strategy point to particular sectors or clusters of activity which need to prosper if long-term national and regional competitiveness is to be maintained or improved. In a global economy where newly industrialised countries have a significant cost advantage in the production of many goods and services, national and regional economies need to identify where their particular strengths lie in bringing about a high-wage, high skill economy. Hence the discussion in NINJ is very much about digital industries, renewable energies, life sciences, financial services, etc. It is clear from the analysis of the economic development plans of coastal areas comparable to East Lindsey’s that diversification into the hi-tech sectors of tomorrow is writ large into their plans, though this may be aspirational in many instances. It is also clear that these sectors are not well established in the East Lindsey Coastal Zone. This provides a significant challenge to policy makers. From a more optimistic perspective, the industries in the Coastal Zone have been able to maintain an employment base and have endured despite changes in people’s holidaying patterns over the past fifty years. Additionally the area has been able to attract older people to settle which has created a demand for social care either delivered in care homes or at home given developments in medical technologies. The key issue is how to drive up skill demand in these sectors given the area’s relative dependence upon them. The argument that it is easier to work with the existing industrial base rather than concentrating efforts on replacing it has considerable merits, though this should not detract from efforts to diversify the economy in the direction of more hi-tech, high wage sectors.

The key issue is how to collectively raise the demand for skills in the Coastal Zone. The Collective Measures study undertaken by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills looked at a range of measures which might collectively raise the demand for skills and training from employers. These included measures such as accounting for training activity in published accounts, tax breaks, etc. which are largely outside the influence of local policy makers. The study also recognised the inherent difficulties of collectively raising the demand for skills and the long-term nature of such an enterprise. That said, a number of suggestions were made which might be applicable at the local level.  Grouped training activities can be effective in raising participation in training from amongst SMEs where there is a need to share the costs of training in some way. Evidence from Australia and Ireland is fairly positive about the impact of these set-ups on raising levels of training and skills. It is not clear, however, whether these types of arrangement can survive without significant support and funding from public sector organisations;  Public sector procurement has the ability to raise skill levels where a commitment to train and / or use fully trained and qualified staff is built into contracts. There is positive evidence from the UK about the impact of these types of arrangement to raise skill levels. Such arrangements can be a fairly strong lever in sectors such as social care. The evidence presented above that local employment and skills agencies have critical role to play in driving up product market strategies and thereby skill needs. But how can this be achieved?

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9.2 Recommendations Provision of off-the-job training provides a number of benefits to both employers and learners. It provides a networking opportunity through which good practice can be transferred, and provides learners with an opportunity to network with others. Training provision in the Coastal Zone has adapted to the current demand for training. Skill shortages are evident across a range of occupations, but it is unlikely that any single provider would be able to cater for locally. Employers in the Coastal Zone appear to show a preference for on-the-job training. This stems in part from the high share of SMEs which are reluctant to release people for training. Employers report that they are well catered for in this regard. But this is not ideal for every type of skills training.

There is no unequivocal evidence from the interviews with the employers that training provision nearby would substantially stimulate the demand for training. On the basis of the evidence above there appears to be little scope for increasing training provision through providing additional facilities in Skegness or elsewhere in the Coastal Zone. The ‘do nothing’ option, however, has considerable risks attached to it:  skills development will not be stimulated;

 good practice might not be disseminated widely;  some employers will remain locked into a relatively low-skill / low value-added segment of the market;

 some individuals will be denied access to training and professional development - especially the informal aspects of getting together with their counterparts in other companies;  policy makers will be denied an opportunity to influence further the skill development of the area. On the basis of the evidence above there is a case for developing a business development centre of excellence which will help local employers develop their businesses and assist them to equip themselves with the skills they need. The first step is to assist employers move upmarket and from there to begin to address the skill needs which emerge. Developing local employer networks can be a key ingredient in achieving this goal.

It should also be noted that accessing training is dependent upon a transport infrastructure which can pose an insuperable barrier to individual learners accessing training. Distance and ease of travel are cited as potential barriers to more training taking place. Policy therefore needs to consider how transport links can be developed such that full advantage is taken of existing training provision. On the basis of the evidence above there is little evidence to suggest that additional provision, such as a further education college in Skegness, would at this time substantially add to the volume of training carried out in the Coastal Zone or improve the competitiveness of the area’s economy.

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This conclusion is predicated on the level of demand for skills and training in the Coastal Zone as outlined in the projections of future employment demand. Implicit in these projections is a ‘business as usual’ view of the economy’s development. This report also makes clear that there is an imperative to improve the market position of the Coastal Zone’s economy in line with national, regional, and local policy. The first step is to encourage local employers to raise their game. This suggests that a key emphasis of any intervention needs to be on business development. The evidence from elsewhere suggests that this can be developed through local networks of employers as outlined in Chapter 8. Given the importance of hospitality and social care to the local economy these would appear to be the priority sectors. If employers are persuaded and assisted to raise their game, this is likely to give rise a demand for additional skills and training. The issue of how to satisfy that additional demand will then arise once more but might be effectively addressed by employers themselves, in conjunction with other stakeholders, if a skill ecosystem type of approach is adopted.

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Annex A: Industrial and Occupational Classifications for Chapter 4

Table A.1: Industrial Classification for Presenting Sectors in IER Forecasts Industries SIC2003

1. Agriculture, etc 01-02, 05 2. Mining & quarrying; Electricity, gas & water 10-14,40-41 3. Food, drink & tobacco 15-16 4. Textiles & clothing 17-19 5. Wood, pulp & paper; Printing & publishing 20-22 6. Chemicals, & non-metallic mineral products 23-26 7. Metals & metal goods 27-28 8. Machinery, electrical & optical equipment 29-33 9. Transport equipment 34-35 10. Other manufacturing & recycling 36-37 11. Construction 45 12. Sale & maintenance of motor vehicles 50 13. Wholesale distribution 51 14. Retailing 52 15. Hotels & restaurants 55 16. Transport 60-63 17. Communications 64 18. Financial services 65-67 19. Professional services 70, 71,73 20. Computing services 72 21. Other business services 74 22. Public administration & defence 75 23. Education 80 24. Health & social work 85 25. Other services 90-99

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Table A.2: Occupational Classification used in IER Forecasts

Sub-major groups Occupations Occupation minor group numbera 11 Corporate managers Corporate managers and senior officials; production managers; functional 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118 managers; quality and customer care managers; financial institution and office managers; managers in distribution and storage; protective service officers; health and social services managers 12 Managers/proprietors in agriculture Managers in farming, horticulture, forestry and fishing; managers and 121, 122, 123 and services proprietors in hospitality and leisure services; managers and proprietors in other service industries 21 Science and technology professionals Engineering professionals; information and communication technology 211, 212, 213 professionals 22 Health professionals Health professionals, including medical and dental practitioners and 221 veterinarians 23 Teaching and research professionals Teaching professionals, including primary and secondary school teachers 231, 232 and higher and further education lecturers; research professionals (scientific) 24 Business and public service Legal professionals; business and statistical professionals; architects, town 241, 242, 243, 244, 245 professionals planners, and surveyors; public service professionals; librarians and related professionals 31 Science and technology associate Science and engineering technicians; draughtspersons and building 311, 312, 313 professionals inspectors; IT service delivery occupations 32 Health and social welfare associate Health associate professionals, including nurses and other paramedics; 321, 322, 323 professionals therapists; social welfare associate professionals 33 Protective service occupations Protective service occupations 331 34 Culture, media and sports occupations Artistic and literary occupations; design associate professionals; media 341, 342, 343, 344 associate professionals; sports and fitness occupations 35 Business and public service associate Transport associate professionals; legal associate professionals; financial 351, 352, 353, 354, 355, 356 professionals associate professionals; business and related associate professionals; conservation associate professionals; public service and other associate professionals 41 Administrative and clerical Administrative/clerical occupations: government and related 411, 412, 413, 414, 415 occupations organisations; finance; records; communications; general 42 Secretarial and related occupations Secretarial and related occupations 421 51 Skilled agricultural trades Agricultural trades 511 52 Skilled metal and electrical trades Metal forming, welding and related trades; metal machining, fitting and 521, 522, 523, 524 instrument making trades; vehicle trades; electrical trades 53 Skilled construction and building Construction trades; building trades 531, 532 trades 54 Other skilled trades Textiles and garment trades; printing trades; food preparation trades; 541, 542, 543, 549 skilled trades n.e.c. 61 Caring personal service occupations Healthcare and related personal services; childcare and related personal 611, 612, 613 services; animal care services 62 Leisure and other personal service Leisure and other personal service occupations; hairdressers and related 621, 622, 623, 629 occupations occupations; housekeeping occupations; personal service occupations n.e.c. 71 Sales occupations Sales assistants and retail cashiers; sales related occupations 711, 712 72 Customer service occupations Customer service occupations 721 81 Process plant and machine operatives Process operatives; plant and machine operatives; assemblers and routine 811, 812, 813 operatives 82 Transport and mobile machine drivers Transport drivers and operatives; mobile machine drivers and operatives 821, 822 and operatives 91 Elementary occupations: trades, plant Elementary occupations: agricultural trades related; process and plant 911, 912, 913, 914 and machine related related; mobile machine related 92 Elementary occupations: clerical and Elementary occupations: clerical related; personal services related; 921, 922, 923, 924, 925 services related cleansing services; security and safety services; sales related

Notes: (a) Standard Occupational Classification, ONS 2001.

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Annex B: Subject of Study – Disaggregated Results from Chapter 5

Table B.1: East Lindsey – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (disaggregated version of Table 5.9) Cod Subject Female Male e 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 1 Health, Public Services 9.8 15.6 21.6 16.6 4.4 4.4 6.9 5.4 and Care 1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Nursing and Subjects and 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Vocations Allied to Medicine 1.3 Health and Social Care 6.0 10.0 18.1 12.6 2.4 3.3 5.5 3.8 1.4 Public Services 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 Child Development and 2.5 4.2 2.1 2.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 Well Being 2 Science and Mathematics 4.7 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.3 1.1 0.8 2.0 2.1 Science 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.8 2.2 Mathematics and 3.3 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.9 Statistics 3 Agriculture, Horticulture 1.7 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.5 1.1 and Animal Care 3.1 Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.3 Animal Care and 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 Veterinary Science 3.4 Environmental 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Conservation 4 Engineering and 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 Manufacturing Technologies 4.1 Engineering 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 Manufacturing 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Technologies 4.3 Transportation 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 Operations and Maintenance 5 Construction, Planning 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 and the Built Environment 5.1 Architecture 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 Building and Construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 Urban, Rural and 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Regional Planning 6 Information and 3.4 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.2 Communication Technology 6.1 ICT Practitioners 3.0 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.7 6.2 ICT for Users 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.3

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Table B.1 (continued): East Lindsey – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (continued)

Cod Subject Female Male 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total e 7 Retail and Commercial 0.2 1.7 6.0 3.3 0.2 0.7 2.7 1.3 Enterprise 7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.2 Warehousing and 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.7 Distribution 7.3 Service Enterprises 0.1 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4 Hospitality and Catering 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 8 Leisure, Travel and 25.4 28.7 23.9 25.3 32.8 35.1 28.5 31.6 Tourism 8.1 Sport, Leisure and 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.7 Recreation 8.2 Travel and Tourism 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9 Arts, Media and 5.6 12.3 8.0 7.9 2.9 5.2 5.9 4.5 Publishing 9.1 Performing Arts 2.7 8.7 4.0 4.4 0.5 2.7 2.1 1.5

9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts and 1.0 1.6 2.8 2.0 1.2 1.4 3.2 2.0 Design 9.3 Media and 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 Communication 9.4 Publishing and 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 Information Services 10 History, Philosophy and 4.4 1.2 1.0 2.2 3.9 1.0 0.5 2.0 Theology 10.1 History 2.8 0.6 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.9

10.2 Archaeology and 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 Archaeological Sciences 10.3 Philosophy 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2

10.4 Theology and Religious 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 Studies 11 Social Sciences 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.1 6.3 12.4 8.9 8.4

11.1 Geography 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2

11.2 Sociology and Social 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Policy 11.3 Politics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.9

11.4 Economics 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3 10.3 3.7 5.6

11.5 Anthropology 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.0

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Table B.1 (continued): East Lindsey – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (continued)

Cod Subject Female Male 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total e

12 Languages, Literature 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 9.6 11.2 13.7 11.5 and Culture 12.1 Languages, Literature and 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.9 1.0 Culture of the British Isles 12.2 Other Languages, 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 Literature and Culture 12.3 Linguistics 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.4 8.3 9.4 7.9

13 Education and Training 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.7

13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 0.2 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 1.4 0.9

13.2 Direct Learning Support 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.8

14 Preparation for Life and 3.7 7.0 17.4 11.0 2.4 2.5 14.3 7.0 Work 14.1 Foundations for Learning 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 and Life 14.2 Preparation for Work 0.4 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5

15 Business, Administration 16.9 13.5 9.1 12.5 8.3 9.5 8.9 8.8 and Law 15.1 Accounting and Finance 9.8 5.3 3.1 5.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4

15.2 Administration 1.7 5.9 5.4 4.3 1.2 4.8 4.0 3.0

15.3 Business Management 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1

15.4 Marketing and Sales 3.1 1.4 0.5 1.5 6.1 4.4 2.7 4.5

15.5 Law and Legal Services 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

98 Unknown 14.4 2.4 0.9 5.7 12.3 2.6 1.5 6.4

99 Not Applicable 5.8 12.4 3.7 6.0 7.5 11.7 3.9 6.8

Total aims 4828 2488 6949 14265 5294 2195 4720 12209

Source: ILR

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Table B.2: Coastal Action Zone – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (disaggregated version of Table 5.10) Cod Subject Female Male e 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 1 Health, Public Services and 11.2 14.5 20.5 16.4 5.1 4.0 7.8 6.0 Care 1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 Nursing and Subjects and 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Vocations Allied to Medicine 1.3 Health and Social Care 7.1 9.5 17.8 12.7 2.8 3.1 6.2 4.3 1.4 Public Services 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 Child Development and Well 2.7 4.2 1.6 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Being 2 Science and Mathematics 4.5 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.9 1.2 0.4 2.0 2.1 Science 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.0 0.9 2.2 Mathematics and Statistics 3.1 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 1.0 3 Agriculture, Horticulture and 1.6 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.4 1.3 Animal Care 3.1 Agriculture 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.3 Animal Care and Veterinary 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 Science 3.4 Environmental Conservation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 Engineering and 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 Manufacturing Technologies 4.1 Engineering 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 Transportation Operations 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 and Maintenance 5 Construction, Planning and 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 the Built Environment 5.1 Architecture 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 Building and Construction 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planning 6 Information and 3.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.0 Communication Technology 6.1 ICT Practitioners 3.0 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 6.2 ICT for Users 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.3 7 Retail and Commercial 0.2 2.1 5.9 3.3 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.0 Enterprise 7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2 Warehousing and 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 Distribution 7.3 Service Enterprises 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.4 Hospitality and Catering 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 8 Leisure, Travel and 23.6 29.9 24.6 25.2 31.1 37.4 32.5 32.8 Tourism 8.1 Sport, Leisure and 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.7 2.4 3.4 2.9 Recreation 8.2 Travel and Tourism 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1

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Table B2 (continued): Coastal Action Zone – subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student Cod Subject Female Male e 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 16-18 19-24 25+ Total 9 Arts, Media and Publishing 5.1 11.2 7.6 7.4 2.9 5.3 4.9 4.1 9.1 Performing Arts 2.4 8.2 3.9 4.2 0.6 2.7 2.1 1.6 9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts and 0.9 1.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.7 Design 9.3 Media and Communication 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 9.4 Publishing and Information 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 Services 10 History, Philosophy and 4.5 0.9 1.1 2.2 3.6 0.8 0.3 1.8 Theology 10.1 History 3.0 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.8 10.2 Archaeology and 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 Archaeological Sciences 10.3 Philosophy 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.4 Theology and Religious 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 Studies 11 Social Sciences 1.5 1.4 0.4 1.0 6.1 11.6 6.5 7.3 11.1 Geography 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 Politics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 11.4 Economics 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 5.4 9.9 2.9 5.2 11.5 Anthropology 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7 12 Languages, Literature and 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 9.1 9.7 11.2 10.1 Culture 12.1 Languages, Literature and 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 2.0 1.1 Culture of the British Isles 12.2 Other Languages, Literature 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 and Culture 12.3 Linguistics 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.3 6.9 7.1 6.8 13 Education and Training 0.8 0.4 1.6 1.1 2.2 1.1 1.9 1.8 13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.4 1.0 13.2 Direct Learning Support 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.8 14 Preparation for Life and 3.7 6.3 18.9 11.6 2.8 2.4 14.3 7.4 Work 14.1 Foundations for Learning 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 and Life 14.2 Preparation for Work 0.2 2.6 3.0 2.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 15 Business, Administration and 18.2 16.0 9.9 13.7 8.8 10.8 10.4 9.8 Law 15.1 Accounting and Finance 10.9 5.4 2.6 5.8 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 15.2 Administration 1.7 8.4 6.8 5.4 1.1 5.9 5.6 3.8 15.3 Business Management 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.4 Marketing and Sales 3.2 1.8 0.5 1.6 6.6 4.8 3.1 4.9 15.5 Law and Legal Services 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98 Unknown 13.7 2.1 0.8 5.3 12.2 2.6 1.9 6.3 99 Not Applicable 6.2 12.9 3.7 6.2 7.8 11.5 4.4 7.1 Total aims 2651 1407 3897 7955 2969 1306 2916 7191

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Table B.3: East Lindsey and CAZ compared with England and rural areas. Subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student (disaggregated version of Table 5.11) Cod Subject Aged 16-18 All ages e East North Coastal England East North Coastal England Lindsey Norfol & Lindsey Norfolk & k Countr Countr yside A yside A 1 Health, Public Services and 7.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 11.4 11.0 10.7 9.1 Care 1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Nursing and Subjects and 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 Vocations Allied to Medicine 1.3 Health and Social Care 4.1 3.8 2.8 2.8 8.5 8.2 6.9 5.4 1.4 Public Services 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 Child Development and Well 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 Being 2 Science and Mathematics 4.0 5.6 5.3 4.6 2.6 7.6 6.2 5.9 2.1 Science 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.2 Mathematics and Statistics 2.5 3.4 3.3 2.8 1.4 5.1 4.1 3.8 3 Agriculture, Horticulture and 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.2 2.7 1.3 1.5 Animal Care 3.1 Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 3.3 Animal Care and Veterinary 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 Science 3.4 Environmental Conservation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 Engineering and 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Manufacturing Technologies 4.1 Engineering 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.3 Transportation Operations 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 and Maintenance 5 Construction, Planning and 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 the Built Environment 5.1 Architecture 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.2 Building and Construction 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Planning 6 Information and 2.4 3.7 3.1 3.3 1.6 4.0 3.1 3.4 Communication Technology 6.1 ICT Practitioners 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.3 6.2 ICT for Users 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 2.4 1.7 1.6 7 Retail and Commercial 0.2 1.0 1.2 1.4 2.4 4.4 3.6 4.6 Enterprise 7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 7.2 Warehousing and 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 Distribution 7.3 Service Enterprises 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 7.4 Hospitality and Catering 0.2 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.7 3.0 1.9 3.2 8 Leisure, Travel and Tourism 29.3 26.3 27.1 29.7 28.2 22.6 25.6 29.7 8.1 Sport, Leisure and 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 Recreation 8.2 Travel and Tourism 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3

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Table B.3 (continued): East Lindsey and CAZ compared with England and rural areas. Subject classification of training aims by age and gender, 2008/9: percentage of all aims by age and gender of student Cod Subject Aged 16-18 All ages e East North Coastal England East North Coastal England Lindsey Norfolk & Lindsey Norfolk & Countr Countr yside A yside A 9 Arts, Media and Publishing 4.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 6.3 4.6 4.7 6.0 9.1 Performing Arts 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 3.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts and 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.4 Design 9.3 Media and Communication 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.4 Publishing and Information 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Services 10 History, Philosophy and 4.1 8.0 6.7 6.5 2.1 4.1 3.9 3.1 Theology 10.1 History 2.3 4.9 3.5 3.8 1.0 2.1 1.4 1.6 10.2 Archaeology and 1.4 2.4 2.1 2.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 Archaeological Sciences 10.3 Philosophy 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.2 10.4 Theology and Religious 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 Studies 11 Social Sciences 3.8 3.2 4.3 3.5 4.5 5.4 5.1 4.1 11.1 Geography 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 11.3 Politics 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 11.4 Economics 2.8 1.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.6 2.3 11.5 Anthropology 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 12 Languages, Literature and 5.2 3.5 5.7 4.5 5.5 3.8 6.2 5.1 Culture 12.1 Languages, Literature and 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 Culture of the British Isles 12.2 Other Languages, Literature 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 and Culture 12.3 Linguistics 3.4 2.1 3.5 3.0 3.7 2.5 3.5 3.2 13 Education and Training 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.7 13.2 Direct Learning Support 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 14 Preparation for Life and 3.0 1.5 1.4 1.5 9.1 5.4 6.0 5.2 Work 14.1 Foundations for Learning 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 and Life 14.2 Preparation for Work 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 15 Business, Administration and 12.4 7.9 8.2 6.8 10.8 8.7 8.8 7.5 Law 15.1 Accounting and Finance 4.9 2.3 2.3 2.1 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 15.2 Administration 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 3.7 2.4 2.4 1.6 15.3 Business Management 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 15.4 Marketing and Sales 4.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.8 3.5 3.1 15.5 Law and Legal Services 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 98 Unknown 13.3 18.8 15.8 15.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 6.9 99 Not Applicable 6.7 5.5 6.3 5.8 6.4 5.2 5.7 5.2 Total aims 10122 7831 171523 4404111 26474 19107 481237 12071124

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Annex C: Questionnaire – Survey of Pupils

Researchers at the University of Warwick would like to find out about your ambitions once you have completed Year 11. This will contribute to an important research project currently being conducted by the University of Warwick for East Lindsey District Council which is looking at the demand for learning. Please give your best and honest answers to the questions below. This questionnaire is completely anonymous and your name is not asked for. It will take about five minutes to complete.

Q1. Are you? (Please tick one box)

Male

Female

Q2. In what town or village do you currently live? (Please fill in the space below) …………………………………………………………………………………………………. Q3. How long have you lived in Lincolnshire for? (Please tick one box)

Less than 2 years

2-5 years

5-10 years

Over 10 years

Q4. What is the name of the school you attend? (Please fill in the space below) ………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Q5. Does your school have a sixth form? (Please tick one box)

Yes

150

Q6. How far is your school from your home? (Please tick one box)

Less than a mile

1-2 miles

3-4 miles

5-6 miles

7-8 miles

9-10 miles

More than 10 miles

Q7. How do you get to school? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

Walk

Cycle

Bus

Car

Taxi

Other (please state)

Q8. How many GCSEs do you expect to get at each of the following grades? (Please fill in the spaces below)

A*-C

D-G

151

Q9. Use the letters in the boxes below to answer question 9. (Please indicate your answers by ticking one column in each row)

A. Engineer, doctor, lawyer, B. Social worker, technician, C. Admin officer, secretary, architect, accountant, teacher, computer operator, nurse, receptionist, library assistant,

scientist, corporate manager, graphic designer, personnel bank clerk, bank cashier, filing software designer officer, physiotherapist clerk

D. Bricklayer, electrician, car E. Bus Conductor, checkout F. Porter, bus driver, cleaner,

mechanic, welder, joiner, operator, hairdresser, care postal delivery worker, courier, carpenter, plumber, grounds assistant, crèche assistant road sweeper, kitchen hand, person, chef waiter, assembly line worker

A B C D E F Never Don’t worked know

Which group contains jobs most like the one your father does (or did most recently)

Which group contains jobs most like the one your mother does (or did most recently)

Which group contains jobs most like the one YOU would like to do when you are older?

Q10. Thinking about the job you want to do when you are older, why do you want to do this job? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

Good money It is interesting work

Good career prospects Regular hours

I have always wanted to do it Always jobs available

There are no other options available to me It does not need any further qualifications

A friend or family member does this job Other (please state)

152

Q11. Do you think staying on at sixth form or college will be important to do this job? (Please tick one box)

Yes

Don’t know

Q12. Do you think obtaining an Apprenticeship will be important to do this job? (Please tick one box)

Yes

Don’t know

Q13. Do you want to stay on at sixth form or college when you finish Year 11? (Please tick one box)

Yes (Now go to Q15)

Q14. If you do not want to stay on at sixth form or college, why is that? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

I don’t like studying I want to earn some money

I don’t know what to study/nothing interests My friends are not going me

There are no sixth forms or colleges in the My parents want me to go straight into work area where I live

I would prefer to get a job with training My older brothers/sisters didn’t go

I would prefer to get a job without training Other (please state)

The job I want doesn’t need any more qualifications

153

Q15. How likely is it that you will actually stay on at sixth form or college? (Please tick one box)

Very likely

Likely

Not likely

Not at all likely

Q16. If you stayed on at the sixth form or college what would you like to study? (Please fill in the space below) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Q17. After year 11 how far would you be prepared to travel to study? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

Walking distance from home

Cycling distance from home

One bus ride from home

Half an hour from home

An hour from home

Longer than an hour from home

Would move away from home

Q18. If you want to stay on at sixth form or college, would you be willing to travel to any of the places below? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

Boston Grimsby Horncastle

Louth Cleethorpes Market Rasen

Skegness Lincoln Spalding

Mablethorpe Wragby Alford

154

Q19. Ideally, where would you like to study after you finish Year 11? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

Boston Grimsby Horncastle

Louth Cleethorpes Market Rasen

Skegness Lincoln Spalding

Mablethorpe Wragby Alford

Q20. What would encourage you to study at a place some distance from where you currently live? (Please tick all boxes that apply)

Nothing, I want to study here

If my friends studied there too

Better transport making it easier to travel to

The course I really want to study

The course leading to good job prospects

Other (please state)

Q21. When you are older how important is it to you that you live and work in Lincolnshire? (Please tick one box)

Very important

Quite important

Not important

Not important at all

Thank you for completing the questionnaire. Now please hand it back to the person who gave it to you.

155

Annex D: Activities in Other Coastal Areas D.1 Revival Actions in Other Coastal Areas The next sub-sections looks, in a little more detail than provided above, at the actions taken in coastal areas which are comparable to the East Lindsey Coastal Zone. The areas considered are:

 North Norfolk  Devon  North Devon  Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly  Kings Lynn and West Norfolk  South Hams

With the exception of Devon County Council, these areas are local authorities that, based on the ONS LA classification, are similar to East Lindsey.

D.2 North Norfolk According to the North Norfolk District Council45 the economy of this council is based on a ‘strong and diverse’ tourism industry and its environment is popular among the retirement age population. The proportion of people aged 65 and over was reported as over 25% of the district’s population (compared to 20 per cent for Norfolk and 16 per cent for England and Wales). The economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, tourism and manufacture, with structural changes taking place in these industries as a result of both local and global influences. In relation to tourism, this sector has grown thanks to investments to improve the quality of the accommodation and attractions on offer and to the development of an industry that targets year-round markets and not only seasonal visitors.

The local authority in North Norfolk has worked to encourage the creation of skills among the population. To do this, the North Norfolk Skills Partnership46 was developed to ensure the learning and skills development needs of individuals, communities and employers of North Norfolk are articulated and met. The Partnership aims “to deliver a coordinated public sector approach to employer engagement” and “to be a single point of contact *and+ a strategic steer on learning and skills related issues”. The strategy47 of the Skills Partnership indicated that North Norfolk will work to:  raise the ambitions and aspirations of people in North Norfolk and promote learning and skills to create a thriving district;

45 North Norfolk District Council Website. Available at http://www.north- norfolk.gov.uk/business/310.asp.

46 http://www.l4esp.org/nnsp/index.htm.

47 Skills Strategy for North Norfolk website. Available at: http://www.l4esp.org/nnsp/skillsstrategy.htm.

156

 articulate present and future needs for learning and skills of individuals and employers;  link to the North Norfolk Business Forum (NNBF) in order to balance learning and training provision with the needs of employers;  address the supply requirements to enable the learning and skills needs of a flexible economy, now and in the future, to be met;  deliver a coordinated public sector approach to employer engagement with learning and skill providers;  be a single point of contact and be a strategic steer on learning and skills related issues.

Related to the first aim listed above, the Learning and Skills IAG Gateway project48 was developed in response to two recommendations from the Leitch Report, namely, to increase people’s skills aspirations and to increase the provision of integrated employment and skills services. The project aimed to be a vehicle to achieving employment creation and skills development and provided “an accessible single point of contact for the delivery of careers advice for adults in North Norfolk”. According the project’s Sustainability Report49, the project proved successful in helping people find or move into better employment and had a positive impact on community participation, well being and the development of skills.

D.3 Devon County Council The population growth rate of Devon is higher than that observed nationally. An increase in population is expected for all age groups, although there is currently a larger proportion of people above pension age compared to the national average. The economic base for Devon is described as ‘diverse’, comprising sectors such as distribution, real state/other businesses, hotels and catering, health and social work, and hotel and catering50. According to the Devon Economic Partnership51, the main challenges to be addressed in the decade post-2008 are:  to improve the quality of life through the sustainable growth of businesses;  to provide opportunities to retain our young people;  to fully engage with an increasingly ageing population to make them part of the economy; and  to encourage diversity in businesses.

48 Sustainability Report – Learning and Skills IAG Gateway project. Available at: http://www.l4esp.org/nnsp/docs/others/Gateway%20Sustainability%20Report%20June%2009.pdf.

49 Idem.

50 ‘State of the Devon Economy’. Devon County Council, September 2008. Available at: http://www.devon.gov.uk/stateofthedevoneconomy-sept08.pdf.

51 ‘Devon Economic Strategy 2008’. Devon Economic Partnership. Available on: http://www.devoneconomy.co.uk/assets/PDFs/Reports%20and%20Research/Devon%20Economic%2 0Strategy.pdf.

157

The Devon Economic Strategy considered the drivers for change, as well as the strengths, limitations, opportunities and challenges of the county. The key drivers for future change that were identified were globalisation; technology; organisational change; knowledge economy; and energy and climate change. The opportunities and challenges are summarised in Table D.1. As can be seen, harnessing renewable energy resources, developing the skills of young people, and fostering a knowledge economy are among the opportunities identified. In relation to the latter, the marine and environmental sectors, together with the creative industries are also highlighted as areas for further development. Improving broadband access and creating a suitable environment for business start- ups were also given priority.

Table D.1 Opportunities and challenges for Devon 2008-2018.

Opportunities Challenges Using Devon’s outstanding environment as an Managing the tension which might arise between the economic driver by, for example: harnessing Devon’s challenge of economic growth and reduction of the outstanding renewable energy resources; increasing carbon footprint; investment and visitors by developing the Devon brand as the prime location for sustainability, quality of life and smart business; reducing business costs through energy, water, waste and transport efficiency; Deriving significant economic, social and Building on the growth potential of the best environmental benefits by putting Devon at the performing parts of the county whilst at the same forefront of the move to create the low carbon time reducing the economic disparities between the economy best and worst performing areas; Developing the skills base in partnership with Devon’s Improving productivity in the county; two universities and FE colleges, and Devon’s growing young population, with a focus on maintaining and building the capacity to support the development of knowledge intensive industries Developing the priority sectors and clusters with the Increasing the availability of affordable housing, not greatest potential for building the knowledge least to support the labour supply needs of a economy in the county – marine and environmental developing economy; technologies and creative industries; Linking Broadband access, high quality of life, Meeting the skill needs of growing sectors of the outstanding environment and culture as drivers for economy; providing all individuals with the business start-ups, growth, relocation and opportunity to upskill and receive training in skills to investment; participate in the labour market; Growing the research and development capabilities of Relatively high reliance on road transport for access Devon’s higher education institutions and their links to work, skills and services; with county businesses; Agriculture & tourism – encourage and enable Maintaining environmental quality whilst continued diversification to leisure and non food accommodating new development; related land use;

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Table D.1 (continued): Opportunities and challenges for Devon 2008-2018. Opportunities Challenges Opportunities for rural development than can result Maintaining viable agriculture, land based and fishing from developments in information and industries in the face of continued change and communications technology; restructuring; Using the contrasting productivity rates in Meeting issues surrounding the decline of traditional neighbouring areas to stimulate growth; industries and at the same time skills shortages in growing sectors e.g. in the marine technologies sector; Developing local supply chains in key sectors such as Proposed constraints on development supported energy, food and construction to increase through local consultation, particularly in rural areas, productivity, reduce leakage from the local economy in the Regional Spatial Strategy and the priority being and increase economic self containment and given to the Core City Growth agenda, nationally and resilience; and regionally; Increasing the number and scale of social enterprises Increasing demand for and cost of transport and the to increase opportunities for entrepreneurialism, centralisation of services posing problems for the productivity and provision of services, infrastructure viability of services for rural communities; and financial solutions. Improving the county’s business infrastructure, including communications in a way that is sustainable and environmentally responsible; Political and organisational change and uncertainty, reducing economic development funding and adjacency to the Cornwall Convergence programme; The need to work in partnership, including working across boundaries, to focus activity and resources on the delivery of common, priority actions. Source: Devon economic Strategy 2008

D.4 North Devon The North Devon Core Strategy52 prepared by North Devon Council and Torridge District Council, sets out the vision, objectives and key policies for the region until 2026. The aims of the strategy are:  to provide an environment where important assets are valued and enhanced for future generations;  to promote a low-carbon economy with excellent opportunities;  to provide a balanced housing market; and  to offer mixed communities the opportunity for an excellent quality of life. The Core Strategy indicates that around 21,500 new homes will be built, together with around 10,000 affordable homes. New employment land will also be developed together with business

52 North Devon and Torridge Joint Core Strategy: Pre-Publication January 2010. Available at: http://consult.torridge.gov.uk/portal/planning_policy/jcs/prepub_cs?pointId=1041727#document- 1041727.

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In relation to the key economic sectors for the region, the Strategy states the following: i. “The growth of emerging or significant local economic sectors will be promoted including, knowledge-based sectors, food and drink, retail, tourism, environmental and low-carbon technologies, marine technologies, creative industries, agriculture and land based industries, health and social care. ii. Large-scale sustainable tourism proposals that improve the overall quality on offer that are located within or around the main towns or within established coastal resorts and are in keeping with the scale and character of the locality will be supported. iii. Sustainable tourism proposals within rural areas will be acceptable where they are directly associated and compatible in scale with an existing recreational facility, are in a sustainable location and demonstrate that they contribute to a sustainable rural economy. iv. Market towns will be encouraged to develop their potential in niche markets. Specific assistance will be given to developing livestock market facilities and rural business centres at key sites at Holsworthy and South Molton. v. To meet the changing needs of the agricultural sector, appropriate farm diversification development will be enabled where it will not prejudice and will support the agricultural capabilities of the holding.” Achieving a ‘vibrant economy’ (defined as one “supported by and compatible with the area’s valued environment”) was seen as a key aim. The challenges identified in relation to this were the creation of high-skilled jobs; ensuring that attractive land is made available for business investment; and ensuring that the tourism sector grows in a sustainable manner while at the same time bringing benefits to local communities. To deliver a vibrant economy, the following strategic objectives were set:  “a rejuvenated economy offers excellent opportunities for all within a well-managed landscape, townscape and coastal zone;  innovation and entrepreneurship are encouraged, creating the conditions in which businesses can grow and prosper;  economic development regenerates and diversifies the local economy without adverse environmental effects – regeneration measures are implemented sensitively;  employment environments are high quality;  learning opportunities are excellent and local facilities deliver the skills appropriate for innovation and for growth in important and enterprising economic sectors;  town and village centres as vibrant places;  developments are low-carbon and low impact on finite resources – waste is minimised in favour of re-use and recycling;  there is sustainable growth in the maritime, green, grey, tourism and leisure economies;

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 an agricultural sector, which is rejuvenated and supported to maintain and enhance its essential contribution to the economic well being and land use management of the rural area; and  the environmental capacity for renewable development is realised without detracting from northern Devon’s valued landscapes and coastlines.”

D.5 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly According to GOSW53, the population of Cornwall grew by 9.5 per cent between 1998 and 2008, whereas the population of the Isles of Scilly grew by 10.5 per cent. This represents a larger growth rate than that of the Southwest (7.4 per cent) and England (5.4 per cent) for that period. In relation of population, Cornwall accounts for over 10% of the population in the Southwest of England. The Isles of Scilly, on the other hand, have the lowest population in any English county or unitary authority. The largest economic sector in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly is public administration, education and health (28.6 per cent), with the retail and wholesale sector in second place (18.9 per cent). The hotels and restaurants sector, and the financial insurance, professional and support figure next with 12 per cent each. The Strategy and Action: The Economic Development Strategy for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly54, defined the vision for the future for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly as “to achieve sustainable prosperity with opportunity for all’. The vision’s potential for accomplishment was underpinned by four guiding principles established to promote a knowledge economy; environmental sustainability; people’s well-being; and economic development. The background to this vision was defined as one of economic development in several areas. The economic strategy stated that: “There has been an economic renaissance in many parts of Cornwall and Isles of Scilly over the past five years. Strong employment growth has been accompanied by major new developments such as the iconic Eden Project and the Combined Universities in Cornwall. There has also been a significant improvement in the external image of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly as a high quality destination with a positive and creative future. This change has been helped by the success of low cost airlines offering services to and from Newquay, making the County much more accessible from other parts of England. It has also been helped by favourable coverage of many of the Objective One initiatives, such as actnow, which dramatically increased the take up of broadband by the business community.” To put the vision in practice, improving competitiveness, developing people, and enhancing place and connectivity were established as the three main themes of the economic strategy. The specific objectives in relation to each of these themes are described in Table D.2.

53 GOSW Regional Intelligence Team, Cornwall & IoS Brief – 18 March 10. Available at: www.gos.gov.uk/497666/docs/220636/309014/corniosbrf.doc.

54 Available at: http://www.economicforum.org.uk/documents/cef001-strategyaction.pdf.

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Table D.2 Themes and objectives developed to achieve vision for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly Theme 1: Improve Theme 2: Develop People Theme 3: Enhance Place and Competitiveness Connectivity Objectives: Objectives: Objectives:  Stimulate innovation  Provide economic  Provide and improve and R&D; inclusion opportunities transport  Create appropriate for all; infrastructure; employment space;  Provide the best start  Build on a distinctive  Provide business for young people; Cornwall; support;  Support higher  Develop sustainable  Encourage sector education; communities; development;  Improve workforce  Develop the Isles of  Transformation into an development; Scilly. information society for all;  Ensure energy sustainability. Source: Strategy and Action: The Economic Development Strategy for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Among the objectives, many of them can be seen as bearing a direct relevance to this report. Stimulating innovation and R&D, for instance, was seen as a way of promoting high value added businesses and as a vehicle for raising ambitions and aspiration in the area. Specific actions within this objective included:  developing world-class research which works in conjunction with businesses in the area;  fostering collaboration between higher education, businesses and the public sector;  strengthening existing networks (e.g., Local Intelligence Network Cornwall) and fostering new ones where appropriate;  maximising the benefit from existing intellectual property including the cultural product. From Theme 2, providing the best start for young people also included raising young people’s aspiration levels. Developing individual learning planning programmes for young people; providing independent information, advice and guidance services (IAG); and enhancing the school curriculum with activities aimed at motivating students were among the actions included. Other actions suggested under this theme were tailoring higher education (HE) courses to the needs of a knowledge economy; increasing the number of HE students; and developing entrepreneurship programmes. In relation to improving workforce development, the following actions were listed:  increasing the number of adults qualified to at least NVQ level 2 with improved progression to, and achievement at, Levels 3 and 4;  achieving a step change in the numbers accessing workplace learning;  further development of sector and local workforce skills programmes;  development of community learning centres and infrastructure hubs.

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To enhance place and connectivity, a local action plan was put into action to improve the efficiency and safety of the transport network. Improving connections was also seen as a strategic area, particularly in relation to the development of the Newquay Cornwall Airport as an economic driver. The distinctiveness of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly was also to be supported by encouraging investment in cultural and creative assets, in the sporting and leisure industries, and in promoting the environment and environmental knowledge.

D.6 King’s Lynn and West Norfolk King’s Lynn is characterised as a prosperous town which nonetheless includes contrasting communities in terms of the opportunities that their residents have access to55. It is the economic driver of the region covering western Norfolk, northern Cambridgeshire and southern Lincolnshire. King’s Lynn grew in terms of economic activity between 1960 and 1970 due to Town Expansion Scheme which led to the relocation of businesses from London (and their employees with their families)56. The town was designated Key Centre for Development and Change as well as a Growth Point.57 As for West Norfolk, this district is among the most sparsely populated in England and, as a result, providing services to remote areas and facilitating people’s access to services are among the challenges it faces58. As stated in the Economic Strategy for the Borough of King’s Lynn and West Norfolk, this region “is in a good position to build on its relative proximity to Cambridge, to continue to attract the significant levels of investment and to absorb the projected growth in a sustainable way”59. The 2009 Economic Strategy for the Borough of King’s Lynn and West Norfolk established four strategic objectives: i. encourage the creation of new businesses, attract new investment and improve the competitiveness of existing businesses; ii. raise the level of skills and qualifications and address the barriers that prevent individuals from accessing employment, training and learning; iii. secure high quality transport and communications infrastructure and the provision of employment land and premises;

55 http://www.west-norfolk.gov.uk/pdf/The%20Vision%20statement.pdf

56 An Integrated Approach to the Regeneration of King’s Lynn. Available at: http://www.west- norfolk.gov.uk/pdf/Integrated%20approach%20to%20the%20regeneration..pdf.

57 Economic Strategy for the Borough of King’s Lynn and West Norfolk. Available at: http://www.west- norfolk.gov.uk/pdf/West%20Norfolk%20Economic%20Strategy%20- %20Final%20%20July%202009.pdf.

58 Idem.

59 Idem, p. 2.

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iv. raise the profile of West Norfolk and enhance its attractiveness as a place to live, work, visit and invest.

Key priorities in relation to these objectives included the creation of new jobs and improving the quality of the jobs offered by existing employers. Fostering the competitiveness, productivity and growth of local business was, as well as attracting and supporting new businesses in key sectors (advanced manufacturing, food related activities, tourism and the public sector) were also seen as crucial. Priorities were also established for the strategic objectives, and these are shown in Table D.3.

Table D.3 Priorities established in relation to the four strategic objectives

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4  Increase the  Improve the aspirations  Provide a supply of  Strengthen King’s Lynn competitiveness, and achievements of serviced land and role as a strategic sub productivity and young people; premises to meet the regional centre; growth of local  Raise the qualifications varying needs of  Develop and businesses; and skill levels of the businesses; implement the  Support the creation local workforce;  Seek improvements to regeneration plans for and survival of  Improve the levels of the strategic and major Hunstanton; sustainable new basic skills within the road infrastructure in  Strengthen the town businesses; workforce; particular the A47; centres through an  Support the growth and  Increase the number of  Increase the capacity increase in the levels of development of the key employers supporting and utilisation of rail activities and businesses and sectors training and education services and facilities in investment; in the local economy – in the workplace; the Borough;  Promote a positive advanced  Raise the employability  Address traffic image of West Norfolk as manufacturing, food of the economic and management and a quality business related activities, socially excluded; transportations issues location; tourism and the public  Reduce the number of including reducing the  Promote and develop sector; young people not in need for unnecessary the diverse visitor offer  Attract Inward employment, education travel and reliance encouraging all year Investment and or training (NEET); upon the private car; round activity; encourage  Develop a lifelong  Secure the provision of  Develop and improve reinvestment by learning culture; electronic (broadband) the leisure and cultural existing businesses;  Increase the provision infrastructure of facilities, shops, and the  Support economic and and quality local sufficient speed and public realm; housing growth with schools and quality to ensure the  Preserving and major investment in further/higher area’s competitiveness. enhancing the area's education, training and education institutions. important built and skills development. natural heritage.

Source: Economic Strategy for the Borough of King’s Lynn and West Norfolk As stated in the same document, the following opportunities and threats were identified for the Borough following a SWOT analysis: Opportunities:

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 encouragement of Inward Investment through the East of England International and the Aftercare Programme;  growth Point Status for King’s Lynn;  potential funds from government and regional agencies to support provision of infrastructure, provision of strategic sites and redevelopment of derelict sites;  redevelopment of King’s Lynn Town Centre and promotion of town as a sub regional centre;  shaping Norfolk’s Future providing a strategic framework for economic development;  strong and growing partnership including the West Norfolk Economic Partnership;  expanding activities of the College and provision of higher education through Anglia Ruskin University. Threats:

 competition from other locations in the region, UK and abroad;  commercial decisions being made outside the area;  poor transport links and communication infrastructure;  traffic congestion in King’s Lynn;  poor external perception of the area which could inhibit future investment;  peripheral location within the region and from major UK centres.

D.7 South Hams According to the South Hams Prosperity Strategy 2006-201160, this District Council has experienced an accelerated economic growth between 1994 and 2004. This growth averaged 6.8 per cent a year in this decade and was greater than the national growth by almost 50 per cent. Although manufacturing output after a period of strong performance and land-based industries remained relatively stable, growth was observed in a number of other sectors. The sectors which experienced strongest growth were construction; finance and business; telecommunications and public administration (education and health spending in particular). The Prosperity Strategy document states the vision of the South Hams economy as follows:

“By 2011, the South Hams economy will be have become increasingly competitive, with less reliance on low wage sectors and a greater emphasis on a knowledge-based economy with low environmental impact.”

Key objectives to achieve this are improving the economic infrastructure of the Council and sourcing project partners for economic projects, with particular emphasis on creating ‘good’ jobs across the Council. To achieve this, the following actions were among those set down:

 development of a business park (Langage Business Park);  development of a sustainable mixed use community providing exemplary housing and employment;

60 South Hams Prosperity Strategy 2006 to 2011. Available at: http://www.southhams.gov.uk/south_hams_prosperity_strategy_2006_to_2011final_draft.pdf.

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 creation of advance employment developments providing mixed use sustainable development workspaces and quality job opportunities;  knowledge transfer initiative (Technology Transfer Project) to transfer MOD know-how through the Defence Diversification Agency;  improvement of employment states’ environmental efficiency and aesthetic improvement;  maximising external funding through partnerships;  provision of evidence-based reports to maintain up-to-date intelligence structure.

In addition to this, the South Hams tourism strategy 2007-201261 provides “a clear strategic direction for the development of tourism in the South Hams”, sets out the support that will be available, and provides a framework for business and stakeholders to contribute to this process. The strategy suggests a sustainable approach to tourism and sets the following objectives:  a re-focussing of activity towards green tourism;  encourage the protection and enhancement of the environment and cultural heritage of the South Hams;  commissioning of a study to assess the impact of cultural tourism on the economic prosperity of the area;  creation of an Area Tourism Partnership and review of existing partnerships;  campaigns to increase the local population’s awareness of the benefits of tourism in the area;  ensure effective dissemination of tourism information;  facilitate sources of information and support for tourism businesses;  monitor levels of visitors as well as community satisfaction;  promote green transport and accommodation opportunities.

61 South Hams Tourism Strategy. Available at: http://www.southhams.gov.uk/index/business_index/ksp-business-tourism/sp-advice-support/sp- tourism-strategy_statistics.htm.

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