Note This PDF document has two parts following this opening page. The first part is an article that was featured in a special issue of the Journal of Mathematical Sociology which consisted of this article, four comments, and my reply to the comments. Unfortunately, the PDF version of the article distributed by the Journal of Mathematical Sociology converts the color figures in the article to grayscale. This renders them useless. (Alas, the figures in the hard copy version of the journal are in glorious color. But no one ever sees them.) The second part of this PDF document addresses this problem. It appends color versions of the figures in the body of the article. So please note, when you encounter a figure in grayscale, a full color version of that figure is provided in the second part of the document. Mark Fossett Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 30:185–274, 2006 Copyright # Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0022-250X print/1545-5874 online DOI: 10.1080/00222500500544052
Ethnic Preferences, Social Distance Dynamics, and Residential Segregation: Theoretical Explorations Using Simulation Analysis*
Mark Fossett Department of Sociology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
In this paper I consider theories of residential segregation that emphasize social distance and ethnic preference dynamics. I argue that these theories are more com- pelling than many critics have supposed, and I conclude that they deserve to be considered more carefully. I then use simulation methodology to assess the poten- tial impact of social distance and ethnic preference dynamics on ethnic segregation under certain theoretically interesting conditions. Based on the results from the simulation analyses, I offer three conclusions: (1) status preferences and status dynamics have the capacity to produce high levels of status segregation but do not produce high levels of ethnic segregation under the specified simulation con- ditions; (2) ethnic preferences can, under certain theoretically interesting con- ditions specified in these simulations, produce high levels of ethnic segregation in the absence of housing discrimination; and (3) ethnic preferences and social dis- tance dynamics can, when combined with status preferences, status dynamics, and demographic and urban-structural settings common in American cities, produce highly stable patterns of multi-group segregation and hyper-segregation (i.e., high levels of ethnic segregation on multiple dimensions) of minority populations. Based on these model-based theoretical explorations I speculate that the persist- ence of segregation in recent decades may have been overdetermined, that is, it may have been sustained by multiple sufficient causes including not only discrimi- nation, but also social distance and preference dynamics. This raises the possi- bility that reductions in housing discrimination may not necessarily lead to large declines in ethnic segregation in the short run because social distance and