WORKING PAPER · NO. 2020-56 Science Skepticism Reduced Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Policies in the United States Adam Brzezinski, Valentin Kecht, David Van Dijcke, and Austin L. Wright SEPTEMBER 2021 5757 S. University Ave. Chicago, IL 60637 Main: 773.702.5599 bfi.uchicago.edu Science Skepticism Reduced Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Policies in the United States Adam Brzezinski1,2, Valentin Kecht3, David Van Dijcke∗4,5, Austin L. Wright6 1 Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 2 Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria 3 Department of Economics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy 4 Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States 5 Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 6 Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States ∗Corresponding author: David Van Dijcke (
[email protected]). ORCID: 0000-0001-5825-3447. Abstract Physical distancing reduces transmission risks and slows the spread of COVID-19. Yet compliance with shelter-in-place policies issued by local and regional governments in the United States was uneven and may have been influenced by science skepticism and attitudes towards topics of scientific consensus. Using county-day measures of physical distancing derived from cellphone location data, we demonstrate that the proportion of people who stayed at home after shelter-in-place policies went into effect in March and April 2020 in the United States was significantly lower in counties with a high concentration of science skeptics. These results are robust to controlling for other potential drivers of differential physical distancing, such as political partisanship, income, education and COVID severity.