The Philippines After the May 10, 2010 Elections

126 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 9|2010 the PhiliPPineS after the May 10, 2010 electionS Peter Köppinger Dr. Peter Köppinger is Resident Represen- tative of the Konrad- On May 10, 2010, elections were held in the Philippi- Adenauer-Stiftung in nes. The president, vice president, the first chamber of the Philippines. parliament (House of Representatives), half of the 24 senators (second chamber of parliament), the governors of the 80 provinces, and the mayors and council members of the cities and municipalities of the country were elected into office. Presidential elections take place every six years in a political system that is broadly modeled on the political system of its former American colonial ruling power. The presidential elections represent a decisive point in Filipino politics for the following reasons. Different than in the United States, the extraordinarily powerful president cannot run for a second term and political parties do not play an important role in the country’s entirely person- alized election system. Situation before the electionS In 2001, Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (“GMA”) became president following a national uprising by the middle-class in the greater Manila area. With the strong support of the church, the uprising was led against corrupt President Joseph Estrada, a popular actor among the poor population. GMA, an economist hailing from one of the wealthiest families in the country, was highly respected. She was generally thought capable of building on the successful presidency of Fidel V. Ramos. During his six years in office between 1992 and 1998, Ramos was able to stabilize the democracy, which had only been reinstated in 1986 after the end of the Marcos dictatorship, and give the country an economic upswing through his bold reforms. GMA supported herself in the parliament with a coalition 9|2010 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 127 out of her own, relatively small, originally liberal party, Kampi, and the Christian democratic party, Lakas CMD. Her popularity rating began to dramatically sink after having been in office for only a short time. During the next regular presidential election in 2004, she only managed to beat her most important opponent, an actor and ally of Estrada, by a slight margin. the national election commission per- One year later, telephone conversations mitted eight candidates to run for the presidential election including the for- were made public indicating she rigged the mer President estrada. opinion polls election results with the apparent help of the showed “noynoy” aquino in the lead. national election commission. This and the, even for the Philippines, extraordinary levels of corruption, enrichment, and pacts with power-hungry and misan- thropic clans in numerous provinces made her the most unpopular politician in the country’s young history in only a short number of years. She withstood nine coup attempts by reform-orientated junior military officers. In May 2010 she ran for House of Representatives representing her hometown district. It was generally assumed that her goal was to bring about constitutional reforms to create a parliamentary system in which she would remain in power as the Prime Minister. The current Filipino constitution does not permit the re-election of a president following the end of the six-year term. election ProceSS and reSultS The national election commission permitted eight candidates to run for the presidential election on May 10, 2010, which simultaneously took place along with the elections for the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the municipalities. One of the eight candidates was former President Estrada, who was sentenced to life in prison for stealing vast sums of state funds and corruption following his dismissal from office in 2001, but was later pardoned by GMA. Periodic opinion polls in the fall of 2009 showed “Noynoy” Aquino in the lead. Until then, Aquino was a relatively unknown, politically comparatively passive senator who was endorsed as the Liberal Party candidate in August 2009, following the death of his mother, Cory Aquino. She was beloved by the population and was the President in the years following the fall of the dictator Marcos and the reinstatement of democracy. 128 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 9|2010 In some areas, politically motivated acts of violence and murder occurred leading up to the elections and on election day. These acts were mostly attributed to the ruling clans in individual provinces and cities. Not counting the massacre at Maguindanao in November 2009, where members of the resident ruling clan murdered 57 people, members of a rival family and accompanying journalists, the number of deaths of circa 60 was significantly less than the number of victims during previous elections. Previous elections were regularly fraught with massive irregularities, such as the buying of votes, voter intimidation, fraud and forgery during the counting and transfer of the tallied results. For this reason, this election was the first to use electronic voting machines at the circa 80,000 polling credible information does exist that stations. These machines were supposed to only days before the election, former electronically read the manually filled-out President fidel ramos and his former security advisor prevented the military ballots and forward the results on electroni- and police leadership from stopping the cally. About 75 percent of the 51 million election. eligible voters participated in the election. The waiting times at may polling stations were several hours long because election workers were inadequately prepared and the absence of voting guidelines. On account of the long lines, many polling stations did not close until an hour after the prescribed time. A unquantifiable number of voters were unable to vote because they were still standing in line when their polling station closed. Political observers and the media expressed massive doubt about whether or not the election would even take place or lead to a result. There were numerous indica- tions that GMA was looking for ways to remain in power, despite the constitution prohibiting a second candidacy, or at least ensure that she would subsequently not be tried for corruption. It was speculated that hardware or software malfunctions with the electronic voting machines, nationwide electricity blackouts, and violent altercations could have led to a state of emergency or martial law and the subsequent partial or full cancellation of election. None of this happened. However, credible information does exist that only days before the election, former President Fidel Ramos and his former security advisor General Almonte prevented the military and police leadership from inter- vening and stopping the election. They apparently feared massive problems and a new uprising (“People Power”) by 9|2010 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 129 supporters of Aquino, should he lose on account of a rigged election. Even in the night before the election the national election commission would have canceled the election had it not been for a former general, who had taken on an important position at the commission. The general took matters into his own hands and ultimately gave the polling stations the final green light to proceed with the election. Speculations that Gen. Bangit, who had shortly before been appointed the Chief of Staff of the armed forces by GMA, was preparing a coup aquino had 42.08 percent of the votes and that the generals loyal to the consti- and with that the best result that any president ever had since the constitution would hectically attempt organize a tution was adopted in 1987. the vice preventive counter-coup, were the reasons presidential election was surprisingly behind the commission’s initial worry. won by Jejoma binay. The results from about two thirds of the polling stations were known only a few hours after their closing. This routinely took several weeks during previous elections, when votes were still counted by hand. According to these results, Aquino had an almost uncatchable lead. When it was all over, he had 42.08 percent of the votes and with that the best result that any president ever had since the constitution was adopted in 1987. The separate vice presidential election was surprisingly won by Jejoma Binay, the long-time mayor of Makati, the wealthiest city in the country, in metropolitan Manila. After failing to be endorsed as the presidential candidate by his party, Lakas-Kampi, as he had hoped, he contested the election together with Estrada. Mar Roxas, the vice presidential candidate and leader of the liberal party, who was leading in the polls up until the end, only came in second place, losing by about two percent. Of the 229 spots being contested for the House of Repre- sentatives, more than 110 representatives were elected who campaigned as members of the ruling party, Lakas- Kampi CMD. As in previous elections, it has since come to light that many of them are joining the new president’s party or declaring themselves as independents and collabo- rating with the Liberals. Their aim is to profit from lucrative positions on parliamentary committees as well as massive monetary appropriations. These payments are allocated annually by the president to the representatives from the 130 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 9|2010 national budget for projects they propose for their districts. In addition to the district representatives, more than 40 additional representatives were elected by a proportional representation process from party lists of “marginalized population groups.” The national election aquino was able to maintain ratings commission admitted in total more than 160 around 40 percent, because he made such party lists of “marginalized” groups. the return to honest and legitimate politics a core part of his campaign. Each group can send a maximum of two representatives to the House of Representa- tives. These party lists were often used by politicians in the oligarchy, who for various reasons were not nominated by their own party, as a springboard to get into the parliament.

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