Situationer: Politisches System, Wahlprozess, Parteien Und

Home , Abang Lingkod, AGHAM Partylist, An Waray, Chavit Singson, Eddie Panlilio, Gilbert Teodoro

Situationer : Politisches System, Wahlprozess, Parteien und Kandidaten in den Philippinen

Niklas Reese, Südostasienwissenschaftler und Vorstandsmitglied im philippinen bü- ro

Situationer ...... 1 Wähler/innen...... 2 Präsidentschaft und Vizepräsidentschaftswahlen: Kampf der gigantischen Mythen: Lichtgestalt Noynoy Aquino vs. The proxy poor Manny Villar...... 3 Noynoy ...... 5 Villar...... 6 Große Erzählungen ...... 8 Inhalte? ...... 10 Parlamentswahlen ...... 11 a) Senatswahlen ...... 11 Repräsentantenhaus /Party List...... 13 Spannende Lokalwahlen...... 16 Automated elections - Werden Wahlen scheitern?...... 17 Gewalt bei Wahlen (electoral violence) ...... 20 People power statt Messianismus...... 21 Wahlbegriffe ...... 23

Situationer

Film Juana Change Am 10. Mai wird gewählt – auf vielen Ebenen

Am meisten im Fokus: 1 Präsident, 1 Vizepräsident, aber auch Parlamentswahlen (Senat und Repräsentantenhaus: zwölf neue SenatorInnen (von insgesamt 24) und die 265 VertreterInnen des Repräsentantenhaus gewählt werden (davon 57 über das Parteilistensystem),) und „Lokalwahlen“in all provinces, cities and municipalities. More than 85,000 candidates for only 17,000 national and local positions.

The ballot for the May 2010 elections will be the longest in Philippine history . A- side from the candidates for President and Vice President all the way down to city or municipal councilors, we will also be choosing from 144 party list contenders that have been accredited by the Comelec. FOLIE 1

Die Wahlen polarisieren und emotionalisieren die philippinische Gesellschaft in ü- berdurchschnittlichem Maße. Der Abgang der gegenwärtigen Präsidentin Arroyo wird nicht nur von der Linken herbeigesehnt, sondern ist auch von den Parteien der Mitte und von Seiten der katholischen Kirche erwünscht. Angesichts Korruption, Nepotismus, politischen Morden und Wahlfälschungen, wie etwa bei der „Hello Garci“-Affäre im Jahr 2004, sowie einer ausufernden „Sicherheits“gesetzgebung er- hält das jetzige Arroyo-Regime von der Bevölkerung sehr niedrige Zustimmungsra- ten und wird von der radikalen Linken sogar als schlimmer als die Marcos-Diktatur bezeichnet. The average unemployment rate for all the eight years of the Arroyo presidency so far is, historically, the worst one over a sustained period since 1956. The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) placed the poverty incidence at 32.9 percent of the population in 2006, a jump of 2.9 percent from 2003’s figure of 30 percent. Ibon’s October 2009 quarterly nationwide survey showed 71 percent of the respondents considering themselves poor. More migration than ever – The Arroyo family and their political allies have also figured in no less than 10 large-scale corruption scan- dals since early in 2001. - More than a thousand extrajudicial killings and more than 200 enforced disappearances in the last eight years and impunity President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has also earned denunciation for protecting the Ampatuans, which played a prominent part in delivering votes to the administration coalition in the elections of 2004 and 2007. General desire for change: GMA is the second longest serving president of the country. There’s this longing, the expectation that things will not be the same after she leaves, Mendoza says. The election is seen as a key source of hope. If thwarted, it’s difficult to say how people would react (siehe später) Greatest challenge Arroyo’s successor would face is how to regain the people’s trust and confidence. Zu Beginn einige Fakten: 1

Wähler/innen

50,723,734 registered voters for the May elections. The Commission on Elections ex- pect an 80 percent turnout, or 40.5 million. Historically Philippine national elections attract a relatively high participation rate of between 70 and 80 percent. 40% of voters are 18-35 and there are a potential 3 million first-time voters. Classified according to income classes, 10 percent of the 40.5 million voters, belong to ABC classes, (the rich and upper middle class) – andere rechnen hier mit 25%; 75 percent to the D class (lower middle class and the poor; and 15 percent to Class E (the poorest).

1 Ich werde nicht über das reden, was Politik in den Philippinen im Allgemeinen bedeutet. Dazu verweise ich auf Handbuch-Artikel: Potentaten und widerständige Untertanen - Das politische System in Theorie und Praxis Von den Oversea Filipinos (absentee voters) haben nur eine halbe Millionen register for 2010 polls. Das sind aber immerhin 200,000 mehr als 2007. Allerdings haben von denen 2007 nur 64% dann tatsächlich ihre Stimme abgegeben. 2 Von den 504,124 absentee voters who registered between 2003 and 2004 over 134,000 have been delisted for withdrawal of records and failure to vote in two previous elections. Wie viele wären wahlberechtigt?? Wenn man von acht –elf Millionen „Oversea Fili- pinos“ ausgeht, davon allerdings ca 3 Millionen permanent settlers im Ausland sind (und damit in der Regel die Staatsbürgerschaft des Ziellandes angenommen hat) und 2 Millionen unter illegalisierten Bedingungen sich dort befinden und damit sich nicht registrieren können, und dann vielleicht nur die Hälfte nach 3 Jahren wioeder in die Philippinen zurückkehren möchte, sind das immer noch ca. 2,5 Millionen, die wahlberechtigt wären. Von denen Comelec wollte zumindest one million absentee voters for 2010 registrieren. 3

Präsidentschaft und Vizepräsidentschaftswahlen: Kampf der gigantischen Mythen: Lichtgestalt Noynoy Aquino vs. The proxy poor Manny Villar

The presidential candidate with the most number of votes (First-past-the-post)will be declared the winner. Keine Stichwahl A separate election is held for the vice president; the two elected officials need not to be running mates in order to be elected anders als in den USA. Dennoch treten in der Regel Tandems an. Präsident/in in den Philippinen quasi halb-absolute Wahlmonarchie. Hat noch mehr Kompetenzen als US-Präsident, beruft die Obersten Richter (These appointments do not need the consent of the Commission on Appointments), hat weitgehende Bud- getvollmachten (Parlament kann nur Mittel streichen, nicht aber eigene beschließen) kann unbotmäßigen Parlamentsabgeordneten den CDF streichen und mit dem executive privilege sogar die Aussage von Regierungsmitgliedern vor Ausschüssen un- terbinden. Bin kein Politikwissenschaftler, habe mich aber schon häufig gefragt, in- wiefern dieses Amt mit dem Prinzip der Gewaltenteilung übereingebracht werden kann. Zudem trotz LDC weitgehender Zentralismus im Land. 4

2 The factors that affected the low turnout were attributed to the following: The voting requirements made it difficult for overseas Filipino workers (OFW) and seafarers who were geographically disper- sed in more than 180 countries - The voting facilities were only limited to 87 polls Limited days off at work prevented many from registering Cost considerations 3 The poll official added that Comelec would pilot automated polls in Hong Kong and Singapore after the two registered the highest turnout of absentee voters enlistment at 95,355and 31,853, respectively. “Holding a pilot of the automated polls in Hong Kong and Singapore would also allow us to gain foresight in implementing our nationwide computerized elections,” added Velasco. 4 “Let us be clear, however, that the President provides the vision and leadership while the whole government bureaucracy serves as the implementing arm. The problems are institutional that it would take more than a change in the President for fundamental and lasting reforms to be effected.” Geht hier auch nur darum deutlich zu machen, warum gerade die Präsidentenwahl die bei weitem bedeutsamste von allen anstehenden Wahlen ist. Und auch warum sich alles immer auf die Präsidentin konzentriert und sie an allem schuld zu sein scheint. FOLIE 2 Insgesamt sind acht Kandidaten und eine Kandidatin zur Präsidentschaftswahl zugelassen worden. 5 Neben dem Ex-Präsidenten (1998-2001) Joseph „Erap“ Estrada, u.a. auch der Senator Manuel Villar (der eine pro-poor-Kampagne fährt), der Ex- Verteidigungsminister und Kandidat der Arroyo- Administration Gilberto „Gibo“ Teodoro und Noynoy Aquino, Sohn der Gallionsfiguren der philippinischen Demo- kratie Ninoy und Cory Aquino.

Zur Zeit (12.3.2010) zeichnet sich ein Kopf an Kopf Rennen zwischen Noynoy Aqui- no und Manny Villar ab: Aquino and Villar were “statistically tied” at first place in the SWS presidential survey conducted from Feb. 24 to 28. The survey showed that Aquino continued to set the pace with 36 percent, closely followed by Villar with 34 percent. Dabei haben sie beide im Vergleich zur letzten Umfrage von SWS jeweils 7% verloren, davon haben Teodoro und Estrada profitiert. Allerdings beide noch weit abgeschlagen. Der Kandidat der Präsidentin Arroyo, Gibo Teodoro, liegt mit 6 bis 7% abgeschlagen auf Platz 4. Auf Platz 3 ist Ex-Präsident Estrada mit 15 bis 18%. 6 Alle anderen – auch der Träger es alternativen Nobelpreises Nicanor Perlas (0,2%) – spielen statistisch keine Rolle. schon behutsam ab .7 Nur 6% was either undecided or refused to respond. Nach der letzten Umfrage von Pulse Asia hat Aquino zwar noch 7 Prozent Vor- sprung, nach einer anderen - Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) - sogar 11 Prozent (41 zu 30); sollte aber Estrada von seiner Kandidatur zurücktreten, dürfte v.a. Villar mit seinem pro-poor-Ansatz davon profitieren und Villar und Aquino wären gleichauf. Deutlicher die Umfragen bei der Vizepräsidentschaft: LP’s Sen. Mar Roxas kept a big lead over his rivals: Roxas continued to top the list with a score of 45 percent a- gainst NP’s Sen. Loren Legarda who has 28 percent. PMP’s Jejomar Binay obtained 17 percent.

5 COMELEC disqualifies KBLs Acosta for failing to conduct a serious campaign. His name is already printed on the ballot; in fact, the first on the list, ahead of Noynoy Aquino, although votes that would be cast for him will be considered invalid. Hat aber ohnehin nur noch 0.04% der Stimmen nach neuesten Umfragen. 6 NOYNOY Aquino, Manny Villar and Erap Estrada—the current front-runners in the 2010 presidential race—represent the three distinct faces of Philippine politics. Aquino draws heavily from the charisma of his illustrious parents. Villar banks on the power of his personal wealth. And Estrada continues to rely on his movie hero charm. They also embody, respectively, the three dominant institutions that shape political fortunes in our society: the family, the economy, and the mass media. Each one of them brings to politics a different kind of admission ticket—lineage for Noynoy, purchasing power for Manny, and star appeal for Erap. (Randy David) 7 Gibt allerdings auch die Annahme dass Teodoro’s low ratings due to his message’s disconnect to poor (Philippine Daily Inqui- rer, 25.2.2010) : An administration party official is blaming Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard-bearer Gilbert Teodoro’s P400-million infomercials for his poor showing in surveys. The infomercials, which show Teodoro switching on the controls of a plane to prepare for takeoff, have failed to connect with the poor, Lakas-Kampi-CMD vice president Prospero Pichay said Wednesday. Pichay said the infomercials, which try to deliver the message of an economic takeoff in a Teodoro administration, appealed more to the ABC class than to the D and E classes. “The message has to be understood by ordinary Filipinos. They don’t understand what an airplane taking off is all about,” he said, noting that the poor could relate more to ads tackling gut issues like education, hunger and nutrition.

Bevor ich mehr über diese beiden Top Runner sage, eine Bemerkung zu Teodoro. Es ist erstaunlich, dass er nur Vierter ist, wenn man sich überlegt wie sehr GMA die Po- litiker im Lande in den letzten Jahren auf Linie gebracht hat. Das Repräsentanten- haus ist ihr geradezu ergeben gewesen (v.a. weil sie die Macht hat, den Leuten den CDF zu streichen) The ruling party has candidates for 170, or 73.9 percent of all Hou- se seats up for grabs, 64, or 80 percent of the 86 gubernatorial posts, 86, or 71.7 percent of 126 city mayoralty slots and 1,043, or 69 percent of all seats for municipal mayors. Sein Camp rechnet auch damit, dass the local machinery will provide a- nother 10 [percent] to 15 percent,”. Uncd er sogar von der INC unterstützt wird. Es wird angenommen, dass Teodoro so schlecht da steht weil er GMAs Kandidat ist. The Pulse Asia December 3, 2009 media release showed that 79% of Filipinos will junk any candidate endorsed by GMA. „death spell“. Mittlerweile setzt er sich von ihr auch ab. 8

Aber dann gibt es ja auch wieder die immer wieder gehörte Behauptung: that Villar is the secret candidate of the administration and that former Defense chief Gilbert Teodoro is candidate of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD party but not necessarily that of Pre- sident Arroyo. 9 Das scheint aber eher eine Ente zu sein, die das LP-Lager streut, um Villar zu diskreditieren.

Noynoy

Until 5. August 2009, the early presidential polls saw presidential contenders go up and down in ratings. Until August 2009, Senator Manny Villar looked like he was poised to consolidate his top ratings in the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys. Dann passing of Cory - Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, the only son of two Philippine democratic icons, selber Senator aber eher low key, nichjt besonders auffällig: Noy- noy, who had no grand ambitions in the 2010 elections, was by some mutual, unspo- ken agreement, suddently entrusted the role of ushering the nation into a regime of hope, change and progress. 10 Irrsinnige Inszenierung über anderthalb Monate (Cory gestorben August 5, Sep 23 ?) offizielle Erklärung, dass er antritt. – zuvor Rückzug ins Kloster, Roxas zurückgetre- ten.

8 Historically, however, the jury is out on how an incumbent’s endorsement really affects the choices of voters. In the 1992 election, President Aquino’s anointed, Fidel V. Ramos, won the balloting, but barely getting through with 23 percent of the vote. In 1998, FVR’s anointed, Speaker Jose de Venecia, was soundly routed by then Vice President Joseph Estrada. 9 Cruz said no funds have been coming from the leadership of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD for the candidacies of actor Edu Manza- no, who is running for vice president, their senatorial bets as well as for those running for local offices. Cruz said everybody in Lakas is complaining of lack of funds, which shows that the President has another preferred presidential candidate. 10 Aquino says, "What’s important is what you have done. I can [implement reforms]. I will." Yes, yes, but that raises the question, what exactly have you done? In about a decade-and-a-half in Congress, what significant laws have you managed to get enacted? What reforms have you even advocated? Indeed, I would ask -- because for the life of me I cannot think of any -- what causes have you passionately fought for? What battles have you fought and what dragons have you slain that should make us, the public, believe that you have the courage, strength, and moral fortitude to be the champion who will save us from the darkness of poverty and despair? Mr. Aquino’s drumbeaters should come up with a reasonable answer to this basic question -- what have you done with your many years in public life? -- instead of forever harping on the virtues of his parents. Virtue or courage or strength or fortitude cannot be passed on in the genes. “(René B. Azurin, BW, 13.1.2010) But ever since Senator Benigno Simeon (Noynoy) Aquino III was driven by the confluence of historical events into the 2010 presidential race and has been domina- ting the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys bis Anfang dieses Jahrers. Sah schon wie der sichere Sieger aus. Starke Unterstützung der Mittelklasse, Makati Business Club, Künstler/innen, AK- BAYAN. Bündnis von FDP bis zu den Grünen sozusagen. Liberal Party (LP) versucht auf Obama zu machen: is deploying a 600,000-strong “Y- ellow Army” of volunteers to campaign, allerdings no evidence—that any presidential campaign in the running for May 10 is structured like Obama’s political army. Cer- tainly, there are cell phones, and data-mining servers, and Facebook fan sites, but to mistake these for the Philippine version of the “biggest digital activism campaign in the world” is wishful thinking. At best, only about a fourth of the Philippine population has access to the Internet; compare that with the United States, which until 2008 had the world’s biggest population of Internet users, at over 200 million. 11

Villar

From a shrimp vendor in Tondo, Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar persisted to become a real estate tycoon, ultimately carving a political career that includes taking the speakership of the House of Representatives, being Senate President, and now as one of the two leading candidates to become the nation’s 15th president. One of the nation’s richest man according to Forbes Magazine - amassing a personal fortune estimated at $940 million (P40 billion), much of it after he was elected congressman, then Speaker of the House, senator, then Senate president. Führt das alles auf “Sipag at Tiyaga” zurück , verschweigt, dass er in eine sehr reiche Familie eingeheiratet hat (Cyntia Villar) 12 If Manny Villar becomes president in 2010, it will be the first time a busi- nessman who is not from the old rich would have successfully used his wealth to get the presidency.

Versucht alles, sich das Image eines der ihren zu geben 13 (wie Erap auf andere Weise

11 I would be the last person to say digital campaigning has no role to play. In the first place, online is the only medium without specific spending restrictions; it is a gray area candidates will certainly exploit. (His digital ads have made Sen. Manny Villar a universal presence even there too.) In the second place—and this is the considered opinion of experts who have actually studied the matter—what online does very well, even in the Philippine setting, is to create buzz. It is not (yet) a tool for converting the undecideds or for raising substantial campaign donations, but it can certainly be used to create word of mouth, to pique public curiosity and interest, to drive old media coverage. 12 Legislative initiatives of Senator Villar have been closely intertwined with his business interests: C-5 road extension project: deliberately pass thru his properties, and to negotiate the overpriced purchase of road rights of way thru several properties also owned by his corporations redounding in huge personal financial benefits for him: Twelve of his fellow senators charged that Villar earned at least P6.5 billion of that fortune by causing the government to spend billions on a C-5 extension project and an eight-lane Daang Hari highway linking Cavite to Laguna that snaked through 23 Villar-owned or -controlled subdivisions. „It is difficult to believe the line that if he had wanted to make more money , Senator Villar would have stayed in business. On the contrary, the pattern in our society has been for the rich to precisely enter politics in order to get more rich or to protect what they already have, especially if the bulk of their wealth had been accumulated through political connections.“ (Randy David) 13 Speaking in eloquent Pilipino for much of his speech, Mr. Villar pointedly declared, "Sa aking mundong kinagisnan, sa Mori- ones Tondo...nakita ko kung paano magtiis, magsikhay at magsikap ang mga katulad kong mahihirap .... Hindi nirerespeto ng ilang mayayaman ang mga katulad namin . Langit at lupang agwat ng aming kabuhayan." (In the world where I grew up, in Moriones, Tondo...I saw how it was for poor people like us to suffer, to endure, and to strive. Sky and earth was the gap in our mit großem Erfolg) 14 He poses as a model for the poor to rise above from poverty. How he would lift the numerous poor from their station in life or become successful entrepreneurs, he does not say.

Villar has been flooding mass media, especially TV, with political ads addressed to the popular noon time TV shows—like “Eat Bulaga” and “Wowowee”—patronized by the poor. Host Willie Revillame unterstützt ihn.

He sponsors popular TV prime time shows, where he spends on advertising space, in programs that offer prizes, including houses in his real estate development projects and cash. P25,000 and P10,000 worth of groceries courtesy of Nacionalista Party (NP) standard-bearer, Sen. Manuel Villar, who sponsors “Stop My Hirap.” , a game show segment—aired for less than 5 minutes—is a trailblazing campaign strategy. „Class warfare is not Villar’s formula for social upward mobility of the poor.“

Wahlspot Übersetzung-Film Villar’s ads are aired at least once every commercial break and his total expenditures as from Nov. 1 last year to March 2 this year amount to over P1.3 billion - an amount

ways of life.) So he asks, almost plaintively, "Mahirap bang isipin at sikmurain na ang isang dating mahirap ay nangangahad mangarap sa pagkapangulo? Di ba pwedeng umahon at mangarap ang tulad namin? Mahirap lang ba ako kaya ako’y hinuhus- gahan?" (" Is it so hard to imagine and swallow the fact that one who was born poor can dare to dream of aspiring to the presidency? Is it not possible for those like us to raise ourselves up and dream?") The playing of the "class" card continues: "...uulitin ko na tila ang kasalanan ko sa mata ng ilan ay di ako pinanganak na maya- man. Wala akong kilalang apelyido o tanyag na kamaganak. Sa pagtuligsa sa akin, isa ang malinaw: ang opinion na porket nanggaling sa mahirap ang isang tao ay di pwedeng yumaman sa mabuti at marangal na paraan.... Wala akong kasalan. Wa- lang anomalya sa C5 project. Hindi ako nakinabang. Lahat ito ay pulitika lamang." (Let me repeat that it seems as if my crime in the eyes of some is that I was not born rich . I do not have a famous name or prominent relatives . In their persecution of me, one thing is clear: the belief that one who was born poor cannot acquire wealth in an honest and honorable manner .... I committed no crime. There is nothing anomalous in the C5 project. I did not personally benefit. All this is politics.) Mr. Villar ends, "Na- kamtan ko na ang marami sa aking pangarap sa buhay. Ang tanging huling nais ko ay maiahon ang karamihan sa ating kaba- bayan mula sa kahirapan. Matagal na silang naghintay sa makakatulong sa kanila. ( I have already realized most of my dreams in life. My remaining wish is to lift many of our countrymen from poverty. They have been waiting a long time for someone to help them.) ...I seek the presidency now because I have a dream for our people -- a dream of rescuing them from poverty and giving them a better future." 14 “I myself would like nothing better than for someone from Tondo to become president—if he were made of the stuff of Andres Bonifacio. That of course was the not very subliminal pitch of the rally: This was the birthplace of Bonifacio, the plebe- ian who sparked a revolution against the rich and powerful. The idea of a campaign starting on that note is brilliant. It has only one problem: The messenger. The distance between Andres Bonifacio and Manuel Villar is a chasm. Bonifacio went on to try to lift his fellow poor from their lot, suffering grief, privation and death, the last ironically enough not at the hands of his enemies but of his presumed friends. Villar went on to lift himself from his lot by means his erstwhile fellow poor may not appreciate, obtaining wealth and power beyond belief, and a new life, the last after being found innocent of wrongdoing at the Senate by his proclaimed friends. There is in fact someone today who echoes Bonifacio’s heroism and revolutionary spirit, but he is not a candidate. He is Efren Peñaflorida, who recently won the CNN Hero of the Year Award. Peñaflorida drives home further the difference in trajectories between Bonifacio and Villar. Like Bonifacio, Peñaflorida came from impoverished beginnings, the son of a tricycle driver and a vendor, born and raised not in Tondo but along a tambakan. Refusing to make poverty an excuse for failure, he worked hard to improve himself. And then completely like Bonifacio, he decided when the opportunity for personal advancement, or a comfortable life, presented itself to work instead to uplift the lot of his fellow poor. A decision, or commitment, that meant grief, privation and at the very least remaining poor. The kareton classroom, for all its quietness and modesty, is no less revolutionary than the Katipunan. (Conrado de Quiros) almost equal to the total TV ad expenditures of four of his closest rivals 15 - even though a presidential candidate’s maximum campaign expenditure limit comes up to only P500 million, or P10 per voter with about 50 million registered voters as base figure and his political party may, spend another P5 per voter or P250 million. 16 Various groups estimate that the former Senate president will spend at least P7 billion for the 2010 elections, more than the average of P5 billion that some political analysts said was how aspirants splurged just to win the six-year term to head this country. How is Villar going to recover his campaign expenses? 17

Große Erzählungen

Während Villar auf „Arm gegen „Reich“ setzt, contrasts his origins with those of Aquino, who belongs to a landed estate family and In his speech before the Makati Business Club on Feb. 10, he likened him to Barack Oba- ma facing the Ku Klux Klan Mr. Aquino’s camp describes the competition as "a fight between good and evil." und er selber erhält messianische Qualitäten: „Malapit na po nating makita ang liwa- nag.“ (Noynoy Aquino) - „Ilang buwan na lang, sisikat ang ha- ring araw sa isang bagong Pilipinas.“ (from: [email protected] )18 Und während Villars Slogan „Tapusin ang kahirapan“ ist setzt Aquino auf Korrupti- onsbekämpfung und good governance Natürlich beide Themen interlinked: While good governance may be seen as the modern approach to poverty, the populist reference to the elimination of poverty may

15 Gilbert ‘Gibo’ Teodoro posted a comparative figure of P407 million, ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III meanwhile had a three-month ad value of P269 million.

16 Und according to Comelec Resolution No. 8578, candidates are allowed to buy no more than 120 minutes of airtime on free or cable television and 180 minutes on radio “whether by purchase or donation wherever located per station.” 17 The underlying issue in this lavish spending is whether or not it is the explanation for his catching up with Aquino’s big early lead in the surveys. I don’t buy this explanation. This explanation implies that who wins or loses the election is a question of who can buy the election. But massive election spending is an insufficient explanation. There are a number of factors that de- termine the outcomes of elections, including the issues, the distress of people, the personal charisma and trustworthiness of the candidate, and the honesty of the election process. If we explain winning elections only on financial means to buy voters through lavish spending or cash handouts, we have to remember that Marcos had all these advantages in the 1986 snap elections—he had the army, the money to buy voters, the patronage resources, control of Comelec, the Batasang Pambansa, the bureaucracy and his cronies’ wealth— and yet he lost. The cheating in the counting of votes was not accepted by the people. It sparked a popular revolution. (...) Villar has to show he has more to offer and that he can be trusted to give good government instead of piles of cash. (Doronila, PDI, 11.2.2010) 18 Mr. Aquino must then explain to us why those disciples he has gathered around him include a) politicos who used to be with Mrs. Arroyo until they abandoned her only because they thought she was on her way out, b) eager businessmen already put- ting together the lucrative deals they intend to carve out for themselves in the anticipated mapapaikutan Aquino administration, c) former Cory Aquino henchmen who so botched her administration that the country was (among other things) condemned to daily 12-hour brownouts, and d) those responsible for the orders that killed tenants at Hacienda Luisita and, earlier, massacred demonstrators at Mendiola. The records of the Senate would show that Noynoy did not vote in favor of CARPer, most likely because it removed the stock distribution option (SDO) from the original CARP law that was signed in 1987 by Noynoy’s mother, then President Cory Aqui- no. be seen as the end goal of governance. 19 It is a matter of emphasis. The first appeals to the middle classes, the latter to the poorest of the poor. The basis of voter preference for a president has historically oscillated between “being pro-poor” and “being clean” (i.e. not corrupt). ( Randy David, 1.1.2010 ) These two qualities are not mutually exclusive, but in the public mind, it seems, a president must have one defining virtue. In the 2010 presidential race, we may assume that the “pro- poor” votes are split between Manny Villar and Joseph Estrada, both of whom have targeted the poor as their principal constituency, while Aquino, who banks on the reputation of his illustrious parents, seems to have a firm grip on the “integrity” votes. 20 GMA ist mit den MK issues an die Macht gekommen und hatte die Unterstützung der MK, nun gesehen, dass sie darin nicht ehrlich war (professionalism statt Patro- nage / misconduct in public service / crime does not pay / enriched themselves in public office) : warum nicht wieder auf einen mit pro-poor Ansatz setzen, bei dem wenigstens etwas bei uns ankommt, könnten die Armen sich fragen. Aber die letzte SWS Umfrage zeigt diese Issues zwar die dominanten sind 21 sich aber nicht so leicht in Stimmen für die jeweiligen Kandidaten zuordnen lassen; Wäre zu einfach zu behaupten: Noynoy ist Kandidat der Ober- und Mittelklasse, Manny der der Unter- klasse: Anfang Februar, als beide ungefähr gleichauf waren, According to preferences by socio-economic classes, Aquino topped Villar with 37 percent, and Villar got 22 percent in the ABC class (the rich). In the D class (middle class), Aquino was the choice, 40 percent against Villar’s 34 percent. Among the E class (the poor), Villar polled 39 percent, against Aquino’s 31. The survey also showed that 26% are inclined to vote for someone who is not corrupt and with clean record 22 ; 22% said they will vote for so-

19 These two problems are so closely intertwined in our society that it is difficult to think of one without the other. Mass poverty traps our people in systems of patronage made possible by large-scale corruption. In turn, corruption exacerbates poverty by depriving and draining the public coffers of the resources that could have been used to give the poor a decisive head start in a society where the structure of opportunities has worked against them. (Randy David, PDI; 1.1.2010) We have to break the chain that has fastened poverty and corruption to our political life. That will only happen when we finally have a leadership that pursues the fight against poverty with determination and intelligence, while scrupulously maintaining itself as an exemplar of ethical public service. This is not as easy as it may sound. In our present system, no one gets elected to high public office without incurring debts of all kinds. Many of these debts are payable only by suspending the imperatives of ethical public service. The determined leader must be able to express gratitude while saying no to payback demands. But, more important, he has to realize that solving poverty will require a dramatic re-orientation of social policy that usually entails alloca- ting scarce resources to long-term programs and projects that benefit the poor but not big business. This will often mean going against the interests of the very social networks that had been tapped in the course of the electoral campaign. A leader who is determined to break the cycle of poverty and corruption must have the confidence of one who enjoys a definite popular mandate, and the boldness to put this at risk . Having attained the nation’s highest seat of power, the transformational leader has to disavow all further pursuit of power or wealth. Only in this way can he break new ground. (ibid.) 20 In the December PulseAsia survey of reasons why voters chose particular candidates as president, 54% of the D-class voters and 47% of the E-class voters who chose Mr. Aquino for president selected him because he was perceived by them as "not corrupt" and a "good person." Only 13% of the D voters and 20% of the E voters who chose him selected him because he "cares for the poor." By way of contrast, presidential candidate Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nacionalista Party, whose non-elite, Tondo-class origin is well known, was selected by 58% of the D voters and 73% of the E voters who chose him because he "cares for the poor" and "helps others." Clearly, there is a distinct difference in appeal. 21 In the just-released January PulseAsia survey (conducted during the Jan. 22 to 26 period), Mr. Aquino (at 37%) and Mr. Villar (at 35%) are effectively statistically tied. Interestingly, the same poll reports that 33% of all voters made their choice based on the reasons "Not corrupt" and "Good person," while 35% made their choice based on the reasons "Cares for the poor" and "Helps others." 22 Quite surprisingly, the percentage of voters who thought that "Not corrupt" was the most important reason for choosing a candidate dropped most significantly among voters in the A, B, and C income classes (only a combined 9% of the Filipino electorate), from 34% in December last year to 23% in January this year. This percentage also fell among D-1 income class (Owns meone who cares for the poor; while 14% said they are looking for someone who can do, is doing and will do something. 23

Inhalte?

One wishes the campaign itself could focus not so much on personalities as on concrete analyses and programs expressly aimed at understanding and addressing corruption and inefficiency in government, on one hand, and mass poverty, on the o- ther. It would help immensely if the candidates translate their opaque motherhood visions into clear, concrete and debatable policy proposals could clearly explain their plans for solving corruption and poverty. “None of the candidates have the track record of addressing these key issues,” Afri- ca said. “None of them, even those who have been in politics for a long time, have shown any record of genuinely addressing these people’s economic issues.” (Jose Enrique Africa, research head of the socio-economic think-tank Ibon Foundation) Villar hat ohnehin eine „Chop Suey coalition“ zusammengestellt: Maza, Ocampo, Marcos und further reinforcing the NP’s image as the “come one, come all” party was an endorsement of Villar by a rightwing organization. Over the weekend, the Philippine Guardians Brotherhood Inc. (PGBI) announced its support for the presidential bid of the billionaire realtor-turned-politician. 24 Like most traditional politicians, Villar is a fervent believer in the notion that “politics is addition.” Großes Thema: RH bill FOLIE 3 Alongside issues like corruption and the economy, reproductive health has emerged among the perpetual and controversial talking points in public forums attended by candidates, especially those gunning for the presidency. Thus far, three of the nine presidential candidates seem to be in favour of having a legislated policy on reproductive health: Sen. Benigno Aquino III 25 , evangelical Christian leader Eddie Villanueva and former President Joseph Estrada. 26

residential lot) voters, from 28% to 23%, and among D-2 income class voters, from 23% to 18%. Interestingly, a still significant proportion, 17%, of E income class voters thought that the "Not corrupt" factor was the most important consideration in choosing a president (this is basically unchanged from the 18% reported for this group in December). 23 Other qualities that Filipinos are looking for in a president, according to the survey, are: someone who helps others (11%), good person (10%), has experience in governing (7%), knowledgeable or intelligent (5%), and listens to people (3%). 24 The PGBI is composed of active and retired servicemen and civilians. Its national chairman and “grand supremo” is Sen. Gregorio Honasan 2nd who, as an Army colonel, led several mutinies in the late 1980s against then-President Cory Aquino. While they were still in active service, Honasan and his comrades were blamed for the kidnapping, torture and murder of several leftists, including the barrio doctor Bobby de la Paz in Samar, the student leader Lean Alejandro in Quezon City and the unionist Rolando Olalia in Rizal province. 25 Having put his signature on the pending reproductive health legislation, Noynoy is an easy target of the Catholic Church, to which the narrow-minded simply dismiss as a pro-abortion proposal. While, unlike its unit El Shaddai or the Iglesia ni Cristo, it would be foolish for a candidate to clash head-on with the Church at this point. This probably explains Noynoy’s vague reference now to an issue he was perceived to have espoused strongly before he decided to run. For now, the senator underscores the need for responsible parenthood and education of couples so they can make informed choices as key to public health, empowerment and progress. 26 Those who San Pascual sees as having an open mind and may allow Congress to debate and decide on the bill as it wishes include candidates Sen. Jamby Madrigal, Sen. Richard Gordon and activist Nicanor Perlas. Those he considers as against being “The Reproductive Health, Responsible Parenthood, and Population Development Act of 2008,” makes artificial contraceptives more accessible to the public through health programs and calls for sex education in schools, among others The House of Representatives has shelved the Church-opposed reproductive health bill, which was supposed to be debated in plenary. It was the closest it has ever gotten to being passed in its 23-year existence. Politicians are generally wary of offending the Church, which has made no secret of its staunch opposition to the bill, and losing potential voters that the Church is seen to wield tremendous influence over. But a SWS survey, conducted from Jan. 21 to 24, indicated that 38 percent of registered voters will vote for candidates who favor the RH bill and only six percent will vote for those who oppose it. The rest of the respondents say it will not affect their vote (20 percent) or they are not aware of the bill (35 percent). 27 The same survey also revealed that 64 percent would vote for candidates who publicly promote modern methods of family planning. 68 percent of respondents favor giving couples access to all legal means of family planning from public health services. 28 A high 87 percent said it is very important for the government to allocate funds for modern methods of family planning, such as pills, IUD, ligation, condom and vasectomy. Anyway there is no „catholic vote“ - the conventional Catholic doesn’t have a solid voting block - in den Philippinen, da haben spätestens die Präsidentschaftswahlen 1998 gezeigt. Und: The influence of churches on voters’ choices is tiny.( Mahar Man- gahas, PDI, 30.1.2010) In a December 2007 SWS national survey about religion, the sta- tement that “Religious leaders should not try to influence how people vote in elections” got agreement from 68 percent and disagreement from only 20 percent.

Parlamentswahlen

a) Senatswahlen b) Wahlen zum Repräsentantenhaus c) Party Lists a) Senatswahlen

62 Kandidat/innen für 12 Plätze (Hälfte aller Sitze) – davon am spannendsten die drei Kandidat/innen, die aus der Linken kommen und noch alle als Party List representatives im Repräsentantenhaus sitzen FOLIE 4 : 2 NDs bei Villar/NP (Ocampo, BAYAN MUNA und Maza, GABRIELA 29 – gemeinsam mit Bongbong Marcos!) wie

against reproductive health legislation are three other candidates – Gilberto Teodoro Jr, who the candidate of the incumbent government, Sen. Manuel Villar and town councillor JC de los Reyes. 27 The support is the same in different socioeconomic classes: 39 percent in class ABC, 38 percent in class D, and 37 percent in class E. The survey also found that support for pro-RH bill candidates is 39 percent among Catholics and 34 percent among non-Catholics. 28 The survey revealed that majorities in all areas and economic class support access to all legal means of family planning. It was 78 percent in Metro Manila, 68 percent in both balance Luzon and the Visayas, and 61 percent in Mindanao. By class, it was 75 percent in class ABC, 68 percent in class D, and 65 percent in class E. Support for access to legal means of family planning was high for both Catholics and non-Catholics, 69 percent among Catholics and 64 percent among non-Catholics, the SWS said.

29 Not a few observers have noted that soon after Maza and Ocampo sealed their partnership with Villar, the NP standard bearer’s ratings began to rise in the opinion polls. They believe that the left’s nationwide network is helping boost Villar’s survey standings. auch eine Popdem bei Aquino/LP (Hontiveros, AKBAYAN) antreten. Außerdem auch Palparan! Alle – bis auf Marcos - aber im Moment noch weit weg von den aus- richtsreichen Plätzen

allerdings: Hontiveros up from 7 to 14 percent, now at T18 und dass Ocampo und Maza keine Chance eingeräumt wird, wundert mich: The electoral victories of the Left in 2001, 2004 and 2007 signified many things: The Left has a loyal following among the electorate; its progressive agenda is appreciated and supported by a core constituency; the red-baiting tactic of the state has lost its efficacy. An astute politician cannot afford to ignore the solid base of the Left. B ei der Mobilisierungsfähigkeit der RAs müssten ihre Kandidaten eigentlich noch zulegen.

OVER the past few years the only real obstacle to the President’s ambitions [next to the Supreme Court ] has been the Senate . The next president has to have a working majority in the face of what will surely be a committed opposition coming from the supporters of whichever of the two main contenders loses (including one of the two main contenders who, if defeated, will remain in the Senate) plus the bloc of the current administration which might position itself as a critical swing vote on bills and the chamber’s leadership. 30

The conventional wisdom, backed by the example of every administration since 1935, is that the House will be controlled by the next administration, with the Spea- kership essentially determined by presidential patronage. By midterm of the Magsay- say, Macapagal and Marcos administrations, House control had shifted to the incumbent’s party (balimbing).

Why Villar? Why not Noynoy?: „The analysis of the Left about the character of the Philippine political party system has not changed. The Left continues to assert that politics in the country is dominated by the traditional elite. Villar and Noynoy are both members of the ruling class. If the Left will endorse one of them, it should be based on the willingness of the candidate to promote a reform agenda. It was Villar who took the time to draft a document in response to the challenge of leftist groups to advance a people’s agenda in 2010.“ (Bulatlat.Com)

30 The Senate goes into 2010 with 12 senators with terms until 2013: two independents, Escudero and Honasan; two Liberals, Aquino and Pangilinan; two Lakas Kampi-CMD, Arroyo and Zubiri (who is already being touted as the leader-in-waiting of the Frankenstein Coalition since the President will be going to the House and Teodoro’s chances are slim); two from UNO, Lacson and Trillanes; two NP, Alan Cayetano and Villar; an LDP, Angara; and an NPC, Legarda. In reality, the blocs might be more like this, based on the two front-runners: the Aquino bloc of four (Aquino, Escudero, Lacson, Pangilinan) versus the Villar bloc of five (Arroyo, Cayetano, Legarda, Trillanes, Villar) with Angara, Honasan, Zubiri up for grabs depending on who else gets elected. If Aquino wins, the Liberals and allies will start off with three in the Senate; if Villar wins, then the NP and friends can count on four to start with, unless Legarda also wins, in which case the starting count can be four or three, depending if the NP tandem wins or not.

Veteran senators Pia Cayetano (NP), Drilon (LP), Enrile (PMP), Estrada (PMP), Ser- gio Osmeña III (affiliated with LP), Recto (LP), Revilla (admin) and Santiago (PRP) are widely expected to win: that’s already eight, leaving only four slots for the rest, including Lapid of the admin and Sotto of the NPC, and first-timers, of whom, for now, the ones with the best chances seem to be Guingona and Biazon of the LP, Marcos of the NP, De Venecia of the PMP (with Hontiveros-Baraquel and Roco still having a fighting chance at this point). If we assume the top eight as shoo-ins, this expands the respective LP and NP blocs from four to seven and five to six. The wild- card bloc, so to speak, would go from three to seven, but more likely disposed to col- laborate with the LP than the NP.

Any bloc with 13 members determines the leadership of the Senate and the prioritiza- tion of bills. A bloc of 16 will be as iron-clad a majority as one can ever hope for, e- nabling constitutional amendments to pass, for example. Any bloc with at least nine members can block things quite effectively, including a shift to a unicameral parliamentary system; a bloc of eight can’t, on its own, stop things, but makes a case-to- case coalition to stop specific legislation quite easy, not to mention keeping the leadership on edge about coups.

The electorate, conventional wisdom also says, likes to cherry-pick its choices for the Senate on the basis of promoting a kind of informal checks-and-balances by not giving any slate too strong a showing; balanced, in turn, by a mischievous combination of electing senators either on the basis of solid qualifications or merely for entertain- ment value.

Repräsentantenhaus /Party List

All seats in the House are up for election, elections will be done for legislative districts and party-list. In district elections, 229 single-member constituencies will elect one member of the House of Representatives. The candidate with the highest number of votes wins that district's seat. Auch hier keine Stichwahl. Da wo Kandidaten nicht wieder antreten dürfen, treten oft deren Verwandte an. Bsp. Imelda Marcos: Ilocos Norte–2nd : Former First Lady Imelda Marcos is running for Congress once again this time in her son's seat. Incumbent Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. is retiring and running for the Senate. Imelda was formerly the representative for the 1st District of Leyte from 1995 to 1998. Auch interessant: Pampanga–2nd : Incumbent president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is aiming to be the first president to be elected to a lower office after her presidential tenure. Sarangani : Boxer Manny Pacquiao is aiming to win a congressional election after being beaten in South Cotabato in 2007 by Darlene Antonino-Custodio .

Von gesellschaftlich-emanzipatorischer Perspektive sehr viel interessanter: die Party list elections. 1987 entstanden mit dem Ziel, in desire to give voice to the underrepre- sented and marginalized classes of society. Oder wie der Supreme Court 2011 fest- gestellt hat, ‘to enable Filipino citizens belonging to marginalized and underrepre- sented sectors, organizations and parties, and who lack well-defined political constituencies but who could contribute to the formulation and enactment of appropriate legislation that will benefit the nation as a whole, to become members of the House of Representatives.“ 31 Bis zu 20 Prozent der Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus sind per Verfassung den Vertre- ter/innen marginalisierter Gruppen vorbehalten, die durch Parteilisten gewählt werden sollten. (Die fünf Spitzenparteien NPC / NP /LP/LAKAS-Kampi-CMD, LDP– allesamt Trapo-Parteien – dürfen nicht antreten. In the party-list election, party-lists will dispute the 57 seats In all, the 15th Congress will have 286 members. Seitdem sie (seit 1998) im Parlament vertreten sind, ist es den Parteilisten immer wieder gelungen, Skandale aufzudecken, das undemokratische Gebaren der Elite bloßzustellen und mit ihrem Pork Barrel zahlreiche Entwicklungsprojekte im Land auf den Weg zu bringen. Vor allem aber konnten sie programmatischer Politik und den zentralen politischen Themen eine (Medien-)Öffentlichkeit verschaffen. Finden landesweit nach dem Verhältniswahlrecht statt: Party-lists with at least two percent of the vote winning one seat; an additional of two more seats may be won by the party depending on their vote totals. Last year the Court declared the 2-percent threshold as unconstitutional and the 20-percent allocation mandatory . Um die 57 Sitze konkurrieren 144 Listen. The COMELEC also de-listed 25 party-list organizations for either failing to participate in the last two elections or did not ob- tain two percent of the votes cast – auch Militant groups Migrante and Sanlakas . Die Homosexuellenliste Ang Ladlad erst nach Protesten vorläufig(!) zugelassen. 32 The names of the competing party-list groups are listed in the official ballots in alpha- betical order with corresponding numbers. Many start with the letter A or the number 1, so they can be at the top of the list in the ballot.

Streitigkeiten: Professional politicians now seek to enter Congress through the back door by being nominees of party-list groups. Accreditation by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) of nine administration-linked party-list groups, saying the administration may be creating a “power block” in Congress to push Charter change. 33 Außerdem: Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes (1-UTAK: United Transport Koali- syon) 34 and presidential son Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo (AGP: Ang Galing Party) as party- list representatives, nachdem Mutti Arooyo dessen congressional district übernommen hat. 1- UTAK (United Transport Koalisyon) is a coalition of jeepney driver and operators, while

31 Sogar die party-list members must be chosen, as provided by law, from “the labor, peasant, urban poor, indigenous cultural communities, women, youth, and such other sectors as may be provided by law, except the religious sector.”

32 In January 2010, the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order to the COMELEC on disqualifying Ang Ladlad. [ 33 These are: Agbiag Timpuyo Ilokano (Agbiag); Ahon Pinoy (AHON); Akbay Pinoy OFW-National (APOI); Aangat Ating Kabuhayan Filipinas (ANAK); Babae para sa Kaunalaran (Babae Ka); Bigkis Pinoy Movement (Bigkis); Byaheng Pinoy Labor Association (Byaheng Pinoy); Kalahi Sectoral Party (Kalahi); and League of Youth for Peace Advancement (LYPAD). Bayan said AGBIAG, Babae Ka, KALAHI, and LYPAD were previously cited in the the Office on External Affairs (OEA) memo, while the rest were identified by Kontra Daya as administration party -list groups for having nominees related to officials belonging to the administration party. “Agbiag, Babae Ka, Kalahi and LYPAD were then considered the four main party-list groups to be supported by the administration in the 2007 polls and were supposed to receive Palace funding according to the OEA memo. Receiving official funding from the government should already be a basis for disqualification,” said Bayan secretary general Renato Reyes Jr. 34 The revelation of Reyes’ nomination has raised the hackles of an older group that represents genuine drivers and operators of public utility vehicles: Piston, or the Pinagkaisang Samahan ng mga Tsuper at Operey-tor Nationwide. AGP represents transport drivers and security guards, among others. "Never mind that Mikey Arroyo has never been a public transport driver or a security guard, but its clear that his ef- forts to remain in Congress are connected to his mother's own agenda and plans to run for House Speaker if she wins the seat for Pampanga. Their involvement in the party-list race is at the expense of genuine party-list groups representing marginalized sectors and their members." (BAYAN) 35

There are currently four Arroyos in the House of Representatives – Mikey, his brother, Dato (Camarines Sur), uncle Ignacio Arroyo (Negros Occidental), and aunt Ma. Lourdes (partylist group Ang Kasangga). Und dann ist da noch BANTAY’s representative retired Gen. Jovito Palparan. 1-Aani, 1-AK, 1-Care, 1-Abaa, 1Ganap/Guardians, 1st Kabagis, A Blessed, AT, Aba- kada, Abang Lingkod, Aba Ilonggo, Abante Ka, Abamin, ATM, Abono, Abroad, ADD- Tribal, ADD, ACT Teachers, Alim, AKO, Adam, Alon, Ating Koop, A Teacher, Asahan Mo, A-Ipra, Agbiag, Agila, Agila, Agri, ADA, Agap, Ahon, Akap Bata, Apoi, Akbayan, Ako, AKB, Akma-PTM, Amana, Anakalusugan, Alagad, Alay Buhay, Abay Parak, Aama, ABC, Anad, AFPSEGCO, ARC, 1-Tubig (formerly Aawas), ABP-Bicolnon, A- nupa, APO, Arcapp, AVE, ATS, Alma, Almana, AMS, Agham, ABA, An Waray, Anak Mindanao, Anakpawis, Aani, Aambis-Owa, AG, ALIF, Ang Ladlad, AMA, A Tambay, Anak, ABS, Atong Paglaum, Amang, Aral, ALE, AAPS, Apec;

Babae Ka, Bago, Bandila, BH, Banat, Bida, Bayan Muna, Bayani, Bigkis, Binhi, Biya- heng Pinoy, Biyayang Bukid, Buhay, Butil;

Chinoy, Cibac, CPM, Senior Citizens, Cocofed, Cofa, Consla, Coop-Natcco, Dwa, Fil-Mus, Firm 24-K, 1st Prisa, Gabriela, Green Force, Ivap, KLBP, Kabayan, Kaba- taan, Buklod Filipina, Kalahi, Kalinga, Kakusa, Ang Kasangga, AA-Kasosyo Party, Kaakbay, Katribu, Kaagapay, Kasapi;

1-Ahapo, Oragon, OPO, PEP, Katutubo, PM, Pacyaw, PCL, PBA, Smart, SB, Ban- tay, TUCP, 1 Ang Pamilya (formerly ANC), UNI-MAD, 1-Utak, Vendors Party List, VFP, WPI, Yes We Can, Yacap and Lypad.

But 69% of Filipinos have not heard or read about the party-list system according to a Pulse Asia survey conducted in January. It is only in the National Capital Region where the majority – 51 percent – is aware of the system. Awareness is lowest in Re- gion 11 or Davao Region and North Luzon at 24 percent. Allerdings im April 2007, a

35 Reaktion: Pampanga Rep. Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo scoffed yesterday at allegations of some party-list lawmakers that he is not from the marginalized sector. “What sector are they representing? And don’t they come from the privileged sector, too?” President Arroyo’s son said in choosing nominees of party-list organizations, what matters most is that their representative will champion their cause, ideals and interests. “Just like them (Reps. Teddy Casiño and Risa Hontiveros), although they come from the privileged sector, they claim to champion the causes of the marginalized sector they represent,” he said. “Mr. Jose Ma. Sison had been the chairman of the (Communist Party of the Philippines) and it is widely believed he is still chairman of the CPP up to now. “But then, the CPP is a movement of the working class. Is Mr. Sison a member of the working class himself? I don’t think so.” Ang Galing’s other nominee: outgoing Lubao town Mayor Dennis Pineda, from the district where President Arroyo is seeking a House seat. month before the midterm elections haben 59 percent gesagt, sie wissen vom Partei- listensystem. Pulse Asia also found out that nine out of the 150 party-list groups accredited by the Commission on Elections have a chance of securing at least two seats in the House of Representatives if elections were held at the time of the survey: Militant party-list group Bayan Muna, with an approval rating of 8.03 percent, topped the list of groups likely to win three seats in the House. 1-Aangat Pilipino 36 followed with 6.34 percent; Anakpawis, 5.88 percent; Gabriela, 5.55 percent; and Akbayan Citizens Action Party, 5.07 percent. Groups likely to win two seats in Congress are Ahon Pinoy 37 with an approval rating of 3.32 percent; Aangat Tayo 38 , 3.22 percent; Anak Minda- nao, 2.80 percent; and Abono 39 , 2.59 percent. 40

Spannende Lokalwahlen

All provinces will elect their provincial governors for three-year terms that will begin on June 30, 2010. Großstädte (cities) wählen mayors instead. All elective local positions are up; a voter may elect a mayor, vice mayor and a varying number of councilors. In drei Provinzen sogar keine Gegenkandidat/innen bei Gouverneurswahlen (Leyte, Compostela valley, Davao del Norte). Local campaign starts on March 26. Besonders spannend: Pampanga, Bulacan, Isabela, wo Reformkandidat/innen in den letzten Monaten von der 2. Kammer der COMELEC des Amtes enthoben worden wegen Neuauszählung der Stimmen 41

36 Einzige Info, die ich finden konnte: 1-AK, which supports the Senate bid of Rep. Rodolfo “Ompong” Plaza who is running under the banner of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) headed by former President Joseph Estrada was accredited by the Comelec almost four years ago and almost won in the May 14, 2007 party-list polls.

37 Allegedly a pro-administration group that will help install President Gloria Arroyo as the House Speaker in the next Cong- ress. 38 Aangat Tayo claims to represent 6 marginalized sectors: labor, urban poor, elderly, women, youth, and the overseas workers. In 2007 2 urban poor groups sought to disqualify Aangat Tayo for allegedly being backed by government. The Urban Poor for Legal Reforms and the Bantay Republic Act 7941 complained said Aangat Tayo was was led by Teddie Elson Rivera, an official of the state-owned Philippine International Trading Corporation Pharma.

39 Fertilizer - there isn’t much on Abono Partylist online either that they are an agricultural-fertilizer partylist. They v oted yes to the ConAss 40 Meanwhile, 34 other party-list groups are expected to win a seat each, according to the Pulse Asia survey, if the elections were held today. Among them are: ACT Teachers, Akap Bata, Citizen Battle Against Corruption (CIBAC), Adhikain at Kilusan ng Ordinaryong Tao Para Sa Lupa, Pabahay, Hanapbuhay at Kaunlaran (AKO), Buhay Hayaan Yumabong (Buhay), Action Brotherhood for Active Dreamers, Inc. (Abroad), 1-Ako Babaeng Astig Aasenso (1-ABAA), Abante Ilonggo (Aba Ilonggo), An Waray and Advocacy for Teacher Empowerment through Action Cooperation and Harmony towards Education Reform (A Teacher). Also, Abante Mindanao Inc. (Abamin), Akbay Pinoy OFW-National Inc. (APOI), Abakada Guro (Abakada), Agricul- tural Sector Alliance of the Philippines (Agap), Partido Manggagawa (PM), Alagad Party-List (Alagad), A Blessed Federation of Farmers and Fishermen International Inc. (A Blessed), 1-Guardians Nationalist of the Philippines, Inc. (1 Ganap/Guardians), 1st Kabalikat ng Bayan Ginhawang Sangkatauhan (1st Kabagis), 1-AANI and Butil Farmers Party (Butil) have a chance of their nominees entering the House. Also making it to the top 43 party-list groups list were Batang Iwas sa Droga Foundation, Inc. (Bida), Kabataan Partylist (Kaba- taan), Agila ng Katutubong Pilipino (Agila), Alyansa ng mga Grupong Haligi ng Agham at Teknolohiya para sa Mamamayan, Inc. (Agham), Alyansa ng OFW Party (Alyansa), and Agapay ng Indigenous Peoples Right Alliance, Inc. (A-IPRA). 41 Kaya Natin: Grace Padaca—Isabela (vs Faustino Dy III), Among Ed Panlilio—Pampanga (vs Lilia Pineda), Florante Gerdan— Nueva Vizcaya (vs. Gov. Luisa Cuaresma), Sonia Lorenzo (San Isidro, Nueva Ecija), Baby Congco (Cabiao, Nueva Ecija), Mari- vic Belena (San Jose, Nueva Ecija), Jun Verzosa (Tagudin, Ilocos Sur) and Valente Yap (Bindoy, Negros Oriental).

a) On December 1, 2009, the COMELEC's Second Division ruled that Roberto Pagdanganan defeated Jonjon Mendoza in the 2007 elections, with Pagdanganan garnering 342,295 votes, 4,231 votes over Mendoza. wobei beide 2010 nicht antreten, aber wohl Mendozas Frau B) On December 8, 2009, the COMELEC Second Division ruled that Dy defeated Grace Padaca by a margin of 1,051 votes, with Dy garnering 199,435 over Padaca's 198,384. C) Arroyo's home province of Pampanga had one of the most hotly contested gubernatorial elections in 2007, with three out of six candidates having a realistic chance of winning: then incumbent Mark Lapid (Lakas-CMD), board member Lilia Pineda (KAMPI) and Roman Catholic priest-on-leave Eddie Panlilio (independent). Panlilio was proclaimed the winner, garnering 219,706 votes, with Pineda obtaining 218,559 and Lapid having 210,875 votes. [7] Pineda contested the result; meanwhile, Panlilio became a member of the Liberal Party late in 2009, supporting Noynoy Aquino 's presidential campaign. On early February 2010, the COMELEC's Second Division ruled that Pineda won the 2007 election, obtaining 190,729 votes against Panlilio's 188,718. [1] Dann auch Pasig: Ric Reyes 42 Außerdem tritt Imee Marcos ( Nacionalista ) in Ilocos Norte an - Luis Chavit Singson in Ilocos Sur - Nur Misuari in Sulu

Automated elections - Werden Wahlen scheitern?

The country’s first nationwide automated elections on May 10

There will be about 37,062 voting centers and 74,427 clustered precincts . Each clustered precinct will have one Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machine, each of which can suppo- sedly accommodate up to 1,000 voters. Votes would be recorded and tallied by counting machines and the results would be electronically sent to the canvassing boards. Un- der automated elections, voters are only required to shade an oval next to the name of their preferred candidate, instead of writing on ballots. The approximately two-foot-long ballots will then be fed into a counting machine that will record and count the votes (precinct count optical scanning - PCOS). “Key ingredients” in the new system was to print ballots with names and codes that “can only be read in the appropriate precinct.” On Election Day, random manual counts (by both the election agency and third-party non-partisan groups) are also done to ensure that vote tallies are accurate. Expected to produce results in two days, according to the Commission on Elections Results of the polling would be posted online; results from all precincts were expected to be transmitted at roughly the same time. Counting of votes has been automated, in the first place, because counting by humans is very inaccurate and prone to cheating. Also, counting by humans is very slow, and the slower the count, the more chances of cheating. Counting by machines would take only a few hours, as contra- sted with human counting which takes many days, and even weeks. Comelec said it will send out voters’ information sheets (VIS) by April similar to an

42 RR filed his candidacy on December 14 as the official mayoral bet of the Liberal Party in coalition with Akbayan (where I come from), leaders of the Pasigueno coalition, Partido Magdalo, Aksyon Demokratiko and Partido Lakas ng Masa-Sanlakas. This put me on a one-on-one contest with the incumbent, Bobby Eusebio of the Eusebio dynasty. Running as Congressman is also one of our own, Sonny Rivera, who is also supported by this broad Opposition coalition. He is also on a one-on-one match with the incumbent, Roman Romulo, son of GMA’s Foreign Secretary. We face a well-entrenched political dynasty that has kept the City Hall to itself for 18 straight years by using government funds to build a huge patronage machinery that extends to the purok or street or even precint level, employing goons and terror tactics to keep people in the communities under control, systematizing fraud and buying off competitors to steal successive elections from the Opposition, cynically accommodating the drug lords whose tentacles lurk in the City Hall and the police and cultivating gross transactional ties with whoever is in Malacanang. official ballot to some 50 million registered voters so they could familiarize themselves with the candidates, their precincts and the ballot that they will use. 43

There has been a great deal of concern over the capability of Comelec to oversee a fully automated election process, especially since the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) system has never been fully piloted in the Philippines and a breakdown could lead to a failed election. Und man der Comelec ohnehin nicht viel zutraut für „one of the most inexperienced poll bodies ever assembled“ hält MANY people worry that the automated poll machines will fail, or there will be power failure in some precincts and the batteries in the PCOS machines will run out. The Comelec itself admitted that it has fallen behind in its preparation. Viel befürchtetes, „wahrscheinlich aber nur theoretisches Szenario“ (Heiko Mein- hardt) , dass die Wahlmaschinen versagen. 44 1. Ein weiterer – möglicherweise sehr viel bedeutsamerer – Unsicherheitsfaktor, ist dass das Wahlpersonal (Lehrer/innen) und die WählerInnen in der Durchführung von automatischen Wahlen völlig ungeübt sind. 2. Among the Comelec’s concerns is that voters might not shade the ovals properly or might choose too many candidates for a particular position, making the ballot invalid.

Yet, automation must deliver 100 percent. Why? Because the presidential elections as this column predicted earlier, will be very, very tight. It would be unacceptable if the Comelec counting machines were able to count only 95 percent of the votes. There won’t be an elected president, because the remaining five percent will decide the winner. Doch man geht ohnehin von “30%” der Gegenden aus, that may need to revert to Manual Elections. Und dann wird es mglw. ohnehin noch Eingabe per Hand geben: The Commission on Elections has sent ballots to overseas voters with instructions to shade the names of candidates of their choices and then send them back to the Come- lec, BY MAIL. No PCOS machine whatsoever to count the votes. Obviously, the counting of overseas votes would be manual, which opens them to cheating, as in the old days. Estimates put the number of overseas Filipino voters at no less than half a million, enough to make a presidential candidate win or lose. And in the case of senatorial candidates, enough to make the tail-enders climb to the last four slots of winners.

43 Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said the VIS would contain the list of all the national and local candidates, the voter’s name, address, precinct number and polling place. Instructions in Tagalog are also printed on the sheet. Larrazabal said in a press conference that voters could bring the VIS to the precincts to serve as guides. Comelec spokesperson James Jimenez said the VIS could not be used for cheating because it would be in black and white, not in color. The information sheets would also not have the precinct identifier that would enable the counting machines to recognize them. They would be marked “sample ballot” so that they would not be used for anything else but to serve as a guide.

44 Allerdings: The Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPeg) has pointed out more than 30 vulnerabilities in the Automated Election System. Among these are issues regarding the source code, the integrity of the counting machines and the procedural weaknesses of the AES as currently implemented by the Comelec. Western election observers on Saturday criticized the government for lack of a backup system in the event the automated system failed. 45 Es fehlt anscheinend an continuity plan in case of a system breakdown which could likely delay, obstruct or lead to the failure of elections. “The perception, whether fair or not, is that the Comelec has not done so. When it concerns elections, perceptions can be as important as reality,” the NDI said. This perception has “inhibited public confidence in the elections and generated anxiety about the automated election system.” it added.

Es kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass die Wahlen scheitern, angefochten werden und sogar als ungültig erklärt werden. 50% der Filipin@s erwarten „people power“ (Straßenproteste), wenn die Wahlen scheitern (The Philippine Star, 15.1.2010)

45 The NDI delegates were in the country from March 7 to 12. They met with government officials, leaders of political parties, civil society and human rights groups, and media organizations. Last year it was reported that Ireland completely scrapped an e-voting initiative that went on for three years and cost 51 million pounds; not because the machines didn’t work, but because voters did not trust or understand how the machines worked and how their votes were tallied. The German Supreme Court also rejected a new e-voting scheme on the grounds that the general population did not understand how the process worked. Ireland experienced a failure in automated election, said this year’s election in the Philippines would be an improvement over its past elections. “I come from Ireland ... We had an electronic automated system which we have now abandoned precisely because some of the safeguards which are now in your system did not exist in ours,” a participant form Ireland said.

Stimmung im Land (Ausschnitt)

„I am sure that computer e xperts hired by politicians are now plotting to defeat the automated election mach i- nes. We should not allow them to succeed.“ (Neal Cruz) Could it be possible that the Comelec knows all along they will not be able to carry out a successful computerized election but is going along with the charade so that a failure of election will keep you-know-who in power? I honestly do not believe she intends to step down any time soo n. She isn’t my beloved Ate Glue for nothing. Look at it this way. Interests identified with her and her family have been busy acquiring big ticket investment assets like Petron, power plants, telecom companies and attempting to get into water and tried to get control of Meralco. All these investments require a friendly regulatory environment. What they are doing isn’t normal for a group that depends on someone who is planning to exit from power. These investments are being made by people who seem to know something we don’t know for sure or are in the realmKilled of our worse Wounded fears. I am not a fan of conspiracy theories but I have one anyway. What if… there is a failure1992 of elections49 85 de clared only on the national level (there will be more serious trouble if local posts are included)… 1995 The76 local124 winners are declared including the members of the lower house that will include my dear 1998 Ate Glue, 45 now127 a newly minted Representative from the Second District of Pampanga. 2001 98 161 No new senators proclaimed. No Vice President and No President proclaimed. The 2004 lower house148 elects261 you- know-who as Speaker who becomes caretaker President. In the meantime the house2007 convenes 121 176as a con- stituent assembl y with or without the consent of the remaining senators. A parliamentary Total form 537 of government 934 springs from the con ass, they fake a plebiscite and we have a new government withSources: you-know- Philippinewho as Prime National Minister. The unproclaimed presidential election winners fade into a footnote in history.Police, Inquirer Archives/ Inqui- All that can happen if those damn computers fail. And the way things seem to rerbe Researchgoing now, a significant number of them will fail. (…) I know it may be too late to go manual. But as Loida Nicolas Lewis so well expressed it in a recent conversa- tion, knowing this could happen, are you just going to quietly proceed to the guillotine and have your head chopped off? Is it really too late to go manual? (aus Boo Chanco: Is it too late to go manual?, The Philippine Star, 26.2.2010)

Legal and constitutional questions that might arise from three possible events related to the May 10 presidential elections.

The possibilities are: One, there won’t be an elected president proclaimed by noon of June 30, when Arroyo’s term ends; two, Arroyo might just extend her term as holdover president because of the first; and three, she might be elected speaker of the House of Representatives and the speaker being No. 4 in the line of succession, she could take over as acting president, in the absence of a duly elected president, vice president, and Senate president (there will only be 12 incumbent senators after June 30 and 12 is a minority in a chamber of 24 senators).

Gewalt bei Wahlen (electoral violence)

The level of election-related violence is rising as election day nears. Not a week pas- ses when a candidate or local official is not killed or shot at. A total of 537 people were killed in election-related violent incidents from 1992 to 2007. In the same period, 934 people were wounded. With about two months more to go before the May 10 elections, 90 people have already been killed, and the death toll is rising every week – davon allerdings 57 Tote des Ampatuan-Massakers last November. 46 There are 132 known private armies throughout the country. There are more than 1.2 million unli-

46 On November 23, 2009, the entourage of the wife of Buluan, Maguindanao Esmael Mangudadatu who is running for provincial governor, including journalists, were abducted and killed in the province's Ampatuan town. censed firearms and 1.8 million registered ones, according to police estimates, many of them in the hands of groups commanded by political warlords. 47

COMELEC had anticipated 14 areas to be named as "election hotspots": Abra , Ilocos Norte , Masbate ( Police data show that 368 people were killed in Masbate in 2008 for political reasons—a big death toll for such a small island! ) and Nueva Ecija in Luzon , Samar (Western Samar), Eastern Samar and Antique in the Visayas , and Basilan , Sulu , Maguindanao , Lanao del Norte , Lanao del Sur , Sarangani , and Zamboanga Si- bugay in Mindanao.

People power statt Messianismus

Since last year, however, People Power has added quite a few dimensions to its side. (Conrado de Quiros): Or many things have happened that can, or ought to, be construed as People Power. Not the least of them is the spirit of voluntarism that aro- se with the death of Cory Aquino. Her funeral procession, as I said elsewhere, was itself a tremendous expression/explosion of People Power, a throng braving the rains and refusing to be distracted by the distractions of a holiday, to accompany a loved one to her final resting place. It was rebellion in the sense that Albert Camus defined rebellion, an act of saying no to something while saying yes to another thing . An act of rejecting a reprehensible thing while embracing a life-affirming thing. An act of ex- postulating against the death of a country brought on by the life of a hated one, and grieving over the death of a loved one who would soon bring life to the country.

That was the same spirit of voluntarism, or People Power, that propelled Noynoy A- quino’s candidacy even before he decided to launch it. It is the same spirit of voluntarism that holds up his campaign, defying traditional wisdom which says the only way you can win the presidency is by traditionally buying—or stealing—it.

Yet another show of People Power was the willingness to do relief work that seized the youth of this country in particular late last year in the wake of “Ondoy,” “Pepeng” and the other plagues that visited the land. It wasn’t just the youth in fact that felt compelled to do their bit for their neighbors and other strangers, it was also the ce- lebrities and movie stars, the merchants and businessmen, the housewives, nuns and priests, and ordinary folk. Just like Edsa. Some, of course, to revive sagging ca- reers; some because the capital itself, seat of power and TV, took the brunt of On- doy; but most for no other reason than that it was the right thing to do. Filipinos rising to their best at the worst time is nothing new, but there was something special, a fee- ling of a spirit reborn, in that sight last year. You saw in your mind an image you hadn’t seen in a long time, that of barrio folk carrying a makeshift hut on their shoul- ders, helping a neighbor pitch tent. Which in fact is the real wellspring of People Po- wer, the seemingly long-gone practice of bayanihan.

And still another show of People Power last year was the heroism bug that bit the entire country. Not least because of Manny Pacquiao’s exploits. His feats went beyond anyone’s expectations and proved to the world the Filipino could be world-class.

47 “Buying firearms in the Philippines is like buying candy, it’s very easy. And for a certain fee, stores will actually help you process your permit-to-carry license even without checking backgrounds,” Pacheco said. Those feats were exceeded by someone far less known but who did something far more profound and awe-inspiring. That was Efren Peñaflorida who unobtrusively and zealously pushed his magical pushcart around the alleys and cemeteries of the city, bringing the light of learning to darkened minds, transforming them from poor benigh- ted folk to Darna and Wapacman combined. Truly, the loudest revolutions begin in the quietest places.

Peñaflorida became CNN’s Hero of the Year last year. Which gave him a few more thousand pesos to use to make the poor a lot less poorer. But his reward, and re- cognition, came well before that: in the work that he did (the doing of it is its own reward for true heroes), and the laughter in eyes he had opened.

The Filipinos’ capacity for empathy and spontaneous action when needed, for voluntarism and selflessness in times of great suffering, and for heroism despite all the disincentives to it, are proof enough the people are not the blind that ought to be led by the seeing or by the equally blind. They are often enough more seeing than their leaders. The opportunity for them to be heard, or take part in the way they are gover- ned, is there. We call it People Power. The rest of the world just calls it democracy.

Grassroots movements and electoral politics ( Roland G. Simbulan, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 21.2.2010) In recent years, Philippine grassroots political movements have entered the arena of electoral politics, especially in the legislative body. Contending for even a share of the state’s political power is not without its risks of re-directing, dividing and softening militant social movements. The promise of delivering a fundamental change in limited statecraft can be disappointing if not frustrating, as the present political system will only allow representation at the periphery. There are opportunities as well as constraints. For electoral forays can be damaging to grassroots organizing and may lull mass leaders into becoming aspiring politicians.

The hope is not in the electoral struggle per se. The real hope lies in deepening the processes of democratization, to strengthen and widen grassroots citizens’ movements which can act as an effective countervailing force against the economic, political and military domination of the oligarchy. There is hope and op- timism if we work hard enough toward sustaining our open though still limited political process, and widening this for greater democratic participation. Social movements should actively engage not only with the legislative and national executive a- gencies but importantly, with local government units for strengthening and consolidation of grassroots political power . Links and unity and struggle with various interest and professional groups, not just class-based political movements, should be established and firmed up.

Once in power, they will confront the same dilemma that faces all liberation and revolutionary movements that have preceded them in post-colonial or socialist states. The emergence in Latin America of progressive governments, such as Venezuela and Uruguay, provides ample lessons for grassroots movements seeking control or even a share of state power.

The fight for meaningful social change must be advocated among the people, especially the working people long dominated, divided and manipulated by the oligarchy. Thus, the agenda and program for radical social change must never be watered down or compromised in exchange for present-day buzzwords for international development agencies like “good governance” and “civil society.” It is tantamount to cooptation toward an “acceptable opposition”.

There are grave perils to the electoral and reformist road to change. State power and the political system could become a means to defuse the militancy of the people’s movement by making too many concessions to other social classes, including elites not in power or those factions trying to hold on to power. Embarking on compromises with elite factions that could disillusion grassroots movements is often considered a risk one must take in taking the electoral road to power and social change. But not necessarily so. The role of the grassroots is not just to provide check and balance in the state or to share power. This is tantamount to cooptation, and may result in a divided grassroots movement.

Wahlbegriffe

Dagdag-bawas Permit to Campaign: The cost of the color-coded permits charged local candidates depend on the position they are running for, with one candidate for a congressional seat being charged as much as P2.2 million, Cabunoc said.