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Philippine Political Circus

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Philippine Political Circus 3/18/2010 THE SILLY SEASON IS UPON US 53 DAYS TO GO AND THE SUPREME COURT IS ALREADY IN THE GAME WITH US TODAY G1BO TEODORO HE’S NOT SO SILLY QRT POL / CHART 1 MARCH 2010 Philippine Political Circus The Greatest Show on Earth 53 DAYS TO GO QRT POL / CHART 2 MARCH 2010 1 3/18/2010 ELECTION QUICKFACTS POSITIONS AT STAKE 1 PRES, 1 VP, 12 SENATORS, 250 REPS, 17,600+ LOCAL GOV’T POSTS NUMBER OF CANDIDATES 90,000+ NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS 50.7 MILLION (SAME NUMBER OF BALLOTS TO BE PRINTED) WINNING BIDDER FOR THE 2010 SMARTMATIC-TIM AUTOMATION ELECTION PROJECT FORWARDERS TASKED TO DEPLOY GERMALIN ENTERPRISES (NCR), ARGO FORWARDERS ELECTION MATERIALS (VISAYAS & MINDANAO), ACE LOGISTICS (SOUTHERN & NORTHERN LUZON) NUMBER OF UNIQUE BALLOTS 1,631 (CORRESPONDS TO PRECINCT -SPECIFIC BALLOTS PER CITY/MUNICIPALITY) BALLOT SIZE 26 INCHES LONG AND 8.5 INCHES WIDE TOTAL NUMBER OF CLUSTERED 75,471 PRECINCTS (COMBINED 5-7 PRECINCTS) NUMBER OF VOTERS PER PRECINCT 1, 000 MAXIMUM OFFICIAL CITIZEN’S ARM ÆPARISH PASTORAL COUNCIL FOR RESPONSIBLE VOTING (PPCRV) ÆNAMFREL NOT ACCREDITED BUT FIGHTING FOR IT SYSTEM OF VALIDATION RANDOM MANUAL PRECINCT AUDIT TO ENSURE THAT THERE WILL BE NO DISCREPANCY IN THE PCOS COUNT (1 PRECINCT PER CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT) ELECTION-RELATED KILLINGS 69 AS OF MARCH 2010, 141 IN ‘07, 189 IN ’04, 132 IN ‘01, 82 IN ’98, 89 IN ‘92 QRT POL / CHART 3 MARCH 2010 PHILIPPINE ELECTION HISTORY IN BRIEF ELECTION YEAR MAJOR FEATURES 1986 h SNAP ELECTION, IRREGULAR ELECTION h CORY WON IN THE VOTING – BUT LOST IN THE OFFICIAL COUNTING h REVOLUTION FOLLOWED 2 WEEKS LATER h GOOD VS. EVIL CHRONICLE 1992 h 1ST SYNCHRONIZED ELECTION h RAMOS WON, MIRIAM CRIED CHEATED h THE COUNTRY’S MOST STABLE GOVERNMENT ENSUED 1998 h ERAP WON BY A LANDSLIDE, DE VENECIA CONCEDED EARLY h TRANSFER OF POWER FROM RAMOS TO ERAP WAS SMOOTH AND ORDERLY h GMA WAS ELECTED AS VP 2001 h ERAP OUSTED IN PEOPLE POWER II, GMA INSTALLED 2004 h FRAUD-LADEN h MAJOR SOURCE OF GMA’S PERCEIVED ILLEGITIMACY – “HELLO GARCI” h RAMPANT CASES OF POLITICAL TURNCOATISM QRT POL / CHART 4 MARCH 2010 2 3/18/2010 A GLIMPSE OF WHAT IT’S LIKE IN 2010 GMA IS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN 2010 ELECTION CORRUPTION & POVERTY ARE ISSUES OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE IN VOTER CONSCIOUSNESS HOTLY CONTESTED PRESIDENTIAL POST - BETWEEN 2, MAYBE 3 THE MOST UNCERTAIN ELECTIONS SINCE EDSA PEOPLE POWER I ANOTHER MINORITY PRESIDENT IN THE OFFING 1ST EVER NAT’L POLL AUTOMATION — BUT FULL SUCCESS IN QUESTION TRADITIONAL GARCI IS FEARED TO METAMORPHOSE INTO ELECTRONIC GARCI (E-GARCI) AGGRESSIVE USE OF NEW MEDIA AS CAMPAIGN STRATEGY (SOCIAL NETWORKING WEBSITES) STAR WARS (USE OF MEDIA PERSONALITIES TO BOOST CANDIDACY) CANDIDACY OF POLITICAL ACTIVISTS IN THE NAT’L POSTS (SATUR OCAMPO, LIZA MAZA) EMPOWERED CIVIL SOCIETY TO WATCH ELECTIONS CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF WARLORDS, NARCOPOLITICIANS, POLITICAL DYNASTIES, CLOWNS CAMPAIGN OVERSPENDING VIOLENCE PRONE QRT POL / CHART 5 MARCH 2010 PAST PRESIDENTIAL RACE PRESIDENT PARTY VOTES NEAREST EDGE TRANSITION (%) RIVAL AQUINO (1986) LABAN WON THE MARCOS -HUSBAND’S STEPPED DOWN 4 CONTENDERS VOTES BY BRUTAL, PUBLIC AFTER HER CHEATING MURDER TERM AND IN THE -REFORM TURNED OVER COUNTING CANDIDATE THE -UNIFYING PRESIDENCY TO CONSCIENCE FVR. FVR (1992) LAKAS-NUCD 23.6% MIRIAM CORY’S PEACEFUL 7 CONTENDERS SANTIAGO ENDORSEMENT, TRANSFER OF =19.7% EDSA SYMBOL POWER LIKE HIS PREDECESSOR ESTRADA (1998) PMP-LAMMP 39.9% JDV MASS APPEAL, OUSTED FROM 10 CONTENDERS =15.9% IGLESIA NI OFFICE CRISTO SUPPORT GMA (2004) LAKAS-CMD, 40% FPJ INCUMBENT, UNCERTAIN 5 CONTENDERS K-4 =36. 5% POLITICAL COALITION MACHINERY, EXPERIENCE, INC SUPPORT, FRAUD 2010 ??? ? ? 9 CONTENDERS 40 – 36.5 = 3.5% = 1.12-M HELLO GARCI WAS FOR 1-M VOTES QRT POL / CHART 6 MARCH 2010 3 3/18/2010 BENIGNO SIMEON AQUINO III “NOYNOY” LIBERAL PARTY 50 YEARS OLD, STILL A BACHELOR 3RD OF 5 CHILDREN 2ND COUSIN OF GILBERT TEODORO EDUCATION: ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY (ELEMENTARY TO COLLEGE) BS ECONOMICS (GMA’S FORMER STUDENT) FORMER TARLAC 2ND DISTRICT REP. (1998-2007) DEPUTY SPEAKER (13TH CONGRESS) EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF LIBERAL PARTY ADVOCACIES: ANTI-CORRUPTION, CHECK AND BALANCE, PROCUREMENT REFORM, FISCAL PRUDENCE, RECOVERY OF MARCOS ILL-GOTTEN WEALTH QRT POL / CHART 7 MARCH 2010 AQUINO STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES WAS # 1 IN SURVEYS – BUT HIS LEAD IS LACKS GRAVITAS & DECISIVENESS SHRINKING, IT’S NOW ALMOST A TIE INEXPERIENCED NEOPHYTE IN ADMINISTRATIVE GOOD INTENTIONS; SEEN AS HONEST MATTERS; LACKS LEADERSHIP SKILLS; QUESTIONABLE QUALIFICATIONS LACK OF NOTABLE LEGISLATIVE ACHIEVEMENT – FISCALIZER IN BOTH HOUSES (NO BILLS FILED EVER PASSED INTO LAW) POLITICAL CAPITAL INHERITED FROM HIS SEEN AS A FREE RIDER ON HIS PARENTS’ LEGACY PARENTS LEAST LIKELY TO STRIKE A DEAL WITH ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT IN THE SCTEX GMA CONTROVERSY MEMBER OF A POLITICAL DYNASTY (AQUINO- LONG LIST OF MEDIA SUPPORTERS COJUANGCO) LOCAL EXECS IN HIS PROVINCE ARE INCLINED TO ABS-CBN BACKING SUPPORT OTHER CANDIDATES HACIENDA LUISITA REMAINS A HOTLY- PLATFORM OF CHANGE CONTESTED ISSUE; HACIENDA MASSACRE VOTED AGAINST OPENING THE “HELLO GARCI” CORY MAGIC (TRANSIENT EMOTION?) TAPE PERCEIVED TO BE VULNERABLE TO MILITARY SUPPORT FROM FORMER GMA ALLIES COUPS (LIKE HIS MOTHER) EDSA I CONSTITUENCY POSSIBLE RETURN OF THE “KAMAG-ANAK, INC.” QRT POL / CHART 8 MARCH 2010 4 3/18/2010 MANUEL VILLAR, JR. “MANNY” NACIONALISTA PARTY 60 YEARS OLD FINISHED BACHELOR’S AND MASTERS’ DEGREES IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION FROM UP DILIMAN WORKED AS ACCOUNTANT & FINANCIAL ANALYST IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR (SGV) BEFORE DEVELOPING THE LARGEST HOMEBUILDING COMPANY IN THE COUNTRY 9TH RICHEST IN RP (NET WORTH EST. $530-M) FORMER SENATE PRESIDENT SERVED AS SENATOR FOR 1 TERM PRESIDENT, NACIONALISTA PARTY FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER SERVED AS LAS PINAS & MUNTILUPA REP FOR 9 YEARS ADVOCACIES: ENTREPRENEURIAL REVOLUTION, OFW WELFARE, POVERTY REDUCTION, MASS HOUSING POOR BOY FROM TONDO, MANILA FORMER SEAFOOD VENDOR IN DIVISORIA QRT POL / CHART 9 MARCH 2010 VILLAR 1 STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES EFFECTIVE ANTI-POVERTY PLATFORM SENATE COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE (CONNECTS MORE TO THE MASSES THAN FINDINGS THAT HE’S GUILTY OF UNETHICAL AQUINO’S ANTI-CORRUPTION CRUSADE) CONDUCT IN RELATION TO THE C-5 ROAD EXTENSION PROJECT (CONFLICT OF INTEREST, SELF-ENRICHMENT) SUPPORT FROM CLASS D-E WHICH OTHERS PERCEIVE THAT HIS DEFIANT COMPRISE THE MAJORITY OF THE ATTITUDE TO FACE HIS COLLEAGUES IN THE VOTERS SENATE SHOWS HIS LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY EFFECTIVE, CREATIVE & AGGRESSIVE ENRILE’S REVELATION THAT HE ATTEMPTED CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES; HE HAS TO BRIBE HIM IN RELATION TO THE C-5 OUTSPENT OTHERS IN POL ADS CONTROVERSY – BUT DO YOU BELIEVE ENRILE, ARCHITECT OF MARTIAL LAW GORDON AND JAMBY TOO. JAMBY SAYS P1-B BRIBE TO PULL OUT. WITH 0. 1% OF VOTE WHO’D BOTHER FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE IN CAMPAIGN RUMORED UNHOLY ALLIANCE WITH GMA ADS – STARTED IN 2008 (VILLARROYO) – GIBO ONLY A DECOY DEEP POCKETS (VILLAR IS FUNDING HIS NP IS WANTING IN NUMBERS OWN CAMPAIGN SO HE SAYS HE ‘S NOT BEHOLDEN TO ANYONE — BUT MONEY IS NOT THE ONLY OBLIGATION INCURABLE) QRT POL / CHART 10 MARCH 2010 5 3/18/2010 2 VILLAR STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES PROLIFIC SENATOR HIS VP WAS ONCE HIS CRITIC GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF THE OVER-EMPHASIS ON POVERTY PER SE, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT NOT ITS CAUSES SHIFTING POLITICAL TIDE IN HIS CONTROVERSIAL MULTI-MILLION PRE- FAVOR (CORY MAGIC HAS WORN ELECTION CAMPAIGN ADS THIN) HIGH PUBLIC APPROVAL RATING FEARED TO RECOUP HIS ELECTION DURING HIS STINT AS SENATE SPENDING IF HE WINS PRESIDENT POOR PUBLIC SPEAKING SKILLS – BUT IMPROVING TRAPO QRT POL / CHART 11 MARCH 2010 GILBERTO TEODORO, JR. “GIBO” LAKASLAKAS--KAMPIKAMPI--CMDCMD 45 YEARS OLD, ONLY CHILD BS COMMERCE, MAJOR IN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS (DLSU) LL.B., COLLEGE OF LAW (UP) LL.M., HARVARD LAW SCHOOL 1987 BAR TOPNOTCHER ADMITTED TO THE NEW YORK STATE BAR CHAIRMAN, LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD PARTY FORMER DND SECRETARY (YOUNGEST TO HOLD THE POST) FORMER TARLAC 1ST DIST. REP. (‘98-’07) ASST. MINORITY LEADER (11TH CONGRESS) PRACTICED LAW AT ESTELITO MENDOZA LAW FIRM (‘90-’97) EX-TARLAC PROVINCIAL BOARD MEMBER (‘80-’86) LICENSED COMMERCIAL PILOT ADVOCACY: AFP REFORM & MODERNIZATION QRT POL / CHART 12 MARCH 2010 6 3/18/2010 TEODORO 1 STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES GMA’S ANOINTMENT; PERCEIVED TO BE FRONTRUNNER IN MANY UNIVERSITY BEHOLDEN TO HER; 74% OF THE VOTERS SURVEYS WON’T VOTE FOR GMA’S CANDIDATE GMA’S DECISION TO RUN AS IMPRESSIVE ACADEMIC CONGRESSWOMAN MAKES TEODORO APPEAR BACKGROUND, ELOQUENCE HER PUPPET LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD MACHINERY AT THE LOCAL LEVEL (70% OF THE LOCAL OFFICIALS TURNCOAT (FROM NPC TO LAKAS-KAMPI) NATIONWIDE ARE LAKAS-KAMPI MEMBERS SEEKING RE-ELECTION) RUMORED FALL OUT WITH DANDING SUPPORT FROM THE SECURITY COJUANGCO AND HIS WIFE DUE TO HIS FORCES, WHERE HE’S RESPECTED DECISION TO LEAVE NPC POOR HANDLING OF THE ARMED FIGHT THAT ENSUED FROM THE BANGSAMORO TREATY IMPRESSIVE SHOWING DURING CONTROVERSY, ONDOY &PEPENG TYHOONS, PRESIDENTIAL FORA & DEBATES POLITICAL KILLINGS & THE MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE KNOWLEDGEABLE ON MOST ISSUES QRT POL / CHART 13 MARCH 2010 TEODORO 2 STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES NO REPORTED CORRUPTION SUB-ZERO POPULARITY OF THE INCUMBENT SCANDAL ADMINISTRATION GOOD LEGISLATIVE & EXECUTIVE A LATE ENTRANT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BACKGROUND YOUTH VOTE JOHN McCAIN OF THE PHILIPPINES TOPS THE FACEBOOK SURVEY DIVIDED CLAN (MEMBERS BELONG TO DIFFERENT SIDES OF POLITICAL FENCE) FLIP-FLOPS ON RH BILL (FAVORED IT INITIALLY THEN RETRACTED LATER) POLITICAL DYNASTY QRT POL / CHART 14 MARCH 2010 7 3/18/2010 THERE’S NO ONE ELSE 1 CONTENDERS PROFILE - HIS APPEAL IS ANOTHER CHANCE TO CONTINUE HIS
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