3/18/2010
THE SILLY SEASON IS UPON US
53 DAYS TO GO AND THE SUPREME COURT IS ALREADY IN THE GAME
WITH US TODAY G1BO TEODORO HE’S NOT SO SILLY
QRT POL / CHART 1 MARCH 2010
Philippine Political Circus
The Greatest Show on Earth 53 DAYS TO GO
QRT POL / CHART 2 MARCH 2010
1 3/18/2010
ELECTION QUICKFACTS
POSITIONS AT STAKE 1 PRES, 1 VP, 12 SENATORS, 250 REPS, 17,600+ LOCAL GOV’T POSTS NUMBER OF CANDIDATES 90,000+ NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS 50.7 MILLION (SAME NUMBER OF BALLOTS TO BE PRINTED) WINNING BIDDER FOR THE 2010 SMARTMATIC-TIM AUTOMATION ELECTION PROJECT FORWARDERS TASKED TO DEPLOY GERMALIN ENTERPRISES (NCR), ARGO FORWARDERS ELECTION MATERIALS (VISAYAS & MINDANAO), ACE LOGISTICS (SOUTHERN & NORTHERN LUZON) NUMBER OF UNIQUE BALLOTS 1,631 (CORRESPONDS TO PRECINCT -SPECIFIC BALLOTS PER CITY/MUNICIPALITY) BALLOT SIZE 26 INCHES LONG AND 8.5 INCHES WIDE TOTAL NUMBER OF CLUSTERED 75,471 PRECINCTS (COMBINED 5-7 PRECINCTS) NUMBER OF VOTERS PER PRECINCT 1,000 MAXIMUM OFFICIAL CITIZEN’S ARM ÆPARISH PASTORAL COUNCIL FOR RESPONSIBLE VOTING (PPCRV) ÆNAMFREL NOT ACCREDITED BUT FIGHTING FOR IT SYSTEM OF VALIDATION RANDOM MANUAL PRECINCT AUDIT TO ENSURE THAT THERE WILL BE NO DISCREPANCY IN THE PCOS COUNT (1 PRECINCT PER CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT) ELECTION-RELATED KILLINGS 69 AS OF MARCH 2010, 141 IN ‘07, 189 IN ’04, 132 IN ‘01, 82 IN ’98, 89 IN ‘92
QRT POL / CHART 3 MARCH 2010
PHILIPPINE ELECTION HISTORY IN BRIEF
ELECTION YEAR MAJOR FEATURES 1986 h SNAP ELECTION, IRREGULAR ELECTION h CORY WON IN THE VOTING – BUT LOST IN THE OFFICIAL COUNTING h REVOLUTION FOLLOWED 2 WEEKS LATER h GOOD VS. EVIL CHRONICLE 1992 h 1ST SYNCHRONIZED ELECTION h RAMOS WON, MIRIAM CRIED CHEATED h THE COUNTRY’S MOST STABLE GOVERNMENT ENSUED 1998 h ERAP WON BY A LANDSLIDE, DE VENECIA CONCEDED EARLY h TRANSFER OF POWER FROM RAMOS TO ERAP WAS SMOOTH AND ORDERLY h GMA WAS ELECTED AS VP 2001 h ERAP OUSTED IN PEOPLE POWER II, GMA INSTALLED 2004 h FRAUD-LADEN h MAJOR SOURCE OF GMA’S PERCEIVED ILLEGITIMACY – “HELLO GARCI” h RAMPANT CASES OF POLITICAL TURNCOATISM
QRT POL / CHART 4 MARCH 2010
2 3/18/2010
A GLIMPSE OF WHAT IT’S LIKE IN 2010
GMA IS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN 2010 ELECTION CORRUPTION & POVERTY ARE ISSUES OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE IN VOTER CONSCIOUSNESS HOTLY CONTESTED PRESIDENTIAL POST - BETWEEN 2, MAYBE 3 THE MOST UNCERTAIN ELECTIONS SINCE EDSA PEOPLE POWER I ANOTHER MINORITY PRESIDENT IN THE OFFING 1ST EVER NAT’L POLL AUTOMATION — BUT FULL SUCCESS IN QUESTION TRADITIONAL GARCI IS FEARED TO METAMORPHOSE INTO ELECTRONIC GARCI (E-GARCI) AGGRESSIVE USE OF NEW MEDIA AS CAMPAIGN STRATEGY (SOCIAL NETWORKING WEBSITES) STAR WARS (USE OF MEDIA PERSONALITIES TO BOOST CANDIDACY) CANDIDACY OF POLITICAL ACTIVISTS IN THE NAT’L POSTS (SATUR OCAMPO, LIZA MAZA) EMPOWERED CIVIL SOCIETY TO WATCH ELECTIONS CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF WARLORDS, NARCOPOLITICIANS, POLITICAL DYNASTIES, CLOWNS CAMPAIGN OVERSPENDING VIOLENCE PRONE
QRT POL / CHART 5 MARCH 2010
PAST PRESIDENTIAL RACE PRESIDENT PARTY VOTES NEAREST EDGE TRANSITION (%) RIVAL AQUINO (1986) LABAN WON THE MARCOS -HUSBAND’S STEPPED DOWN 4 CONTENDERS VOTES BY BRUTAL, PUBLIC AFTER HER CHEATING MURDER TERM AND IN THE -REFORM TURNED OVER COUNTING CANDIDATE THE -UNIFYING PRESIDENCY TO CONSCIENCE FVR. FVR (1992) LAKAS-NUCD 23.6% MIRIAM CORY’S PEACEFUL 7 CONTENDERS SANTIAGO ENDORSEMENT, TRANSFER OF =19.7% EDSA SYMBOL POWER LIKE HIS PREDECESSOR ESTRADA (1998) PMP-LAMMP 39.9% JDV MASS APPEAL, OUSTED FROM 10 CONTENDERS =15.9% IGLESIA NI OFFICE CRISTO SUPPORT GMA (2004) LAKAS-CMD, 40% FPJ INCUMBENT, UNCERTAIN 5 CONTENDERS K-4 =36.5% POLITICAL COALITION MACHINERY, EXPERIENCE, INC SUPPORT, FRAUD 2010 ??? ? ? 9 CONTENDERS
40 – 36.5 = 3.5% = 1.12-M HELLO GARCI WAS FOR 1-M VOTES QRT POL / CHART 6 MARCH 2010
3 3/18/2010
BENIGNO SIMEON AQUINO III “NOYNOY” LIBERAL PARTY
50 YEARS OLD, STILL A BACHELOR 3RD OF 5 CHILDREN 2ND COUSIN OF GILBERT TEODORO EDUCATION: ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY (ELEMENTARY TO COLLEGE) BS ECONOMICS (GMA’S FORMER STUDENT) FORMER TARLAC 2ND DISTRICT REP. (1998-2007) DEPUTY SPEAKER (13TH CONGRESS) EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF LIBERAL PARTY ADVOCACIES: ANTI-CORRUPTION, CHECK AND BALANCE, PROCUREMENT REFORM, FISCAL PRUDENCE, RECOVERY OF MARCOS ILL-GOTTEN WEALTH
QRT POL / CHART 7 MARCH 2010
AQUINO STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES WAS # 1 IN SURVEYS – BUT HIS LEAD IS LACKS GRAVITAS & DECISIVENESS SHRINKING, IT’S NOW ALMOST A TIE INEXPERIENCED NEOPHYTE IN ADMINISTRATIVE GOOD INTENTIONS; SEEN AS HONEST MATTERS; LACKS LEADERSHIP SKILLS; QUESTIONABLE QUALIFICATIONS LACK OF NOTABLE LEGISLATIVE ACHIEVEMENT – FISCALIZER IN BOTH HOUSES (NO BILLS FILED EVER PASSED INTO LAW) POLITICAL CAPITAL INHERITED FROM HIS SEEN AS A FREE RIDER ON HIS PARENTS’ LEGACY PARENTS LEAST LIKELY TO STRIKE A DEAL WITH ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT IN THE SCTEX GMA CONTROVERSY MEMBER OF A POLITICAL DYNASTY (AQUINO- LONG LIST OF MEDIA SUPPORTERS COJUANGCO) LOCAL EXECS IN HIS PROVINCE ARE INCLINED TO ABS-CBN BACKING SUPPORT OTHER CANDIDATES HACIENDA LUISITA REMAINS A HOTLY- PLATFORM OF CHANGE CONTESTED ISSUE; HACIENDA MASSACRE VOTED AGAINST OPENING THE “HELLO GARCI” CORY MAGIC (TRANSIENT EMOTION?) TAPE PERCEIVED TO BE VULNERABLE TO MILITARY SUPPORT FROM FORMER GMA ALLIES COUPS (LIKE HIS MOTHER) EDSA I CONSTITUENCY POSSIBLE RETURN OF THE “KAMAG-ANAK, INC.”
QRT POL / CHART 8 MARCH 2010
4 3/18/2010
MANUEL VILLAR, JR. “MANNY” NACIONALISTA PARTY
60 YEARS OLD FINISHED BACHELOR’S AND MASTERS’ DEGREES IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION FROM UP DILIMAN WORKED AS ACCOUNTANT & FINANCIAL ANALYST IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR (SGV) BEFORE DEVELOPING THE LARGEST HOMEBUILDING COMPANY IN THE COUNTRY 9TH RICHEST IN RP (NET WORTH EST. $530-M) FORMER SENATE PRESIDENT SERVED AS SENATOR FOR 1 TERM PRESIDENT, NACIONALISTA PARTY FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER SERVED AS LAS PINAS & MUNTILUPA REP FOR 9 YEARS ADVOCACIES: ENTREPRENEURIAL REVOLUTION, OFW WELFARE, POVERTY REDUCTION, MASS HOUSING POOR BOY FROM TONDO, MANILA FORMER SEAFOOD VENDOR IN DIVISORIA
QRT POL / CHART 9 MARCH 2010
VILLAR 1
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES EFFECTIVE ANTI-POVERTY PLATFORM SENATE COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE (CONNECTS MORE TO THE MASSES THAN FINDINGS THAT HE’S GUILTY OF UNETHICAL AQUINO’S ANTI-CORRUPTION CRUSADE) CONDUCT IN RELATION TO THE C-5 ROAD EXTENSION PROJECT (CONFLICT OF INTEREST, SELF-ENRICHMENT) SUPPORT FROM CLASS D-E WHICH OTHERS PERCEIVE THAT HIS DEFIANT COMPRISE THE MAJORITY OF THE ATTITUDE TO FACE HIS COLLEAGUES IN THE VOTERS SENATE SHOWS HIS LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY EFFECTIVE, CREATIVE & AGGRESSIVE ENRILE’S REVELATION THAT HE ATTEMPTED CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES; HE HAS TO BRIBE HIM IN RELATION TO THE C-5 OUTSPENT OTHERS IN POL ADS CONTROVERSY – BUT DO YOU BELIEVE ENRILE, ARCHITECT OF MARTIAL LAW
GORDON AND JAMBY TOO. JAMBY SAYS P1-B BRIBE TO PULL OUT. WITH 0. 1% OF VOTE WHO’D BOTHER FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE IN CAMPAIGN RUMORED UNHOLY ALLIANCE WITH GMA ADS – STARTED IN 2008 (VILLARROYO) – GIBO ONLY A DECOY DEEP POCKETS (VILLAR IS FUNDING HIS NP IS WANTING IN NUMBERS OWN CAMPAIGN SO HE SAYS HE ‘S NOT BEHOLDEN TO ANYONE — BUT MONEY IS NOT THE ONLY OBLIGATION INCURABLE)
QRT POL / CHART 10 MARCH 2010
5 3/18/2010
2 VILLAR
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES PROLIFIC SENATOR HIS VP WAS ONCE HIS CRITIC GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF THE OVER-EMPHASIS ON POVERTY PER SE, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT NOT ITS CAUSES SHIFTING POLITICAL TIDE IN HIS CONTROVERSIAL MULTI-MILLION PRE- FAVOR (CORY MAGIC HAS WORN ELECTION CAMPAIGN ADS THIN) HIGH PUBLIC APPROVAL RATING FEARED TO RECOUP HIS ELECTION DURING HIS STINT AS SENATE SPENDING IF HE WINS PRESIDENT POOR PUBLIC SPEAKING SKILLS – BUT IMPROVING TRAPO
QRT POL / CHART 11 MARCH 2010
GILBERTO TEODORO, JR. “GIBO” LAKASLAKAS--KAMPIKAMPI--CMDCMD
45 YEARS OLD, ONLY CHILD BS COMMERCE, MAJOR IN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS (DLSU) LL.B., COLLEGE OF LAW (UP) LL.M., HARVARD LAW SCHOOL 1987 BAR TOPNOTCHER ADMITTED TO THE NEW YORK STATE BAR CHAIRMAN, LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD PARTY FORMER DND SECRETARY (YOUNGEST TO HOLD THE POST) FORMER TARLAC 1ST DIST. REP. (‘98-’07) ASST. MINORITY LEADER (11TH CONGRESS) PRACTICED LAW AT ESTELITO MENDOZA LAW FIRM (‘90-’97) EX-TARLAC PROVINCIAL BOARD MEMBER (‘80-’86) LICENSED COMMERCIAL PILOT ADVOCACY: AFP REFORM & MODERNIZATION
QRT POL / CHART 12 MARCH 2010
6 3/18/2010
TEODORO 1
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES
GMA’S ANOINTMENT; PERCEIVED TO BE FRONTRUNNER IN MANY UNIVERSITY BEHOLDEN TO HER; 74% OF THE VOTERS SURVEYS WON’T VOTE FOR GMA’S CANDIDATE GMA’S DECISION TO RUN AS IMPRESSIVE ACADEMIC CONGRESSWOMAN MAKES TEODORO APPEAR BACKGROUND, ELOQUENCE HER PUPPET LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD MACHINERY AT THE LOCAL LEVEL (70% OF THE LOCAL OFFICIALS TURNCOAT (FROM NPC TO LAKAS-KAMPI) NATIONWIDE ARE LAKAS-KAMPI MEMBERS SEEKING RE-ELECTION) RUMORED FALL OUT WITH DANDING SUPPORT FROM THE SECURITY COJUANGCO AND HIS WIFE DUE TO HIS FORCES, WHERE HE’S RESPECTED DECISION TO LEAVE NPC POOR HANDLING OF THE ARMED FIGHT THAT ENSUED FROM THE BANGSAMORO TREATY IMPRESSIVE SHOWING DURING CONTROVERSY, ONDOY &PEPENG TYHOONS, PRESIDENTIAL FORA & DEBATES POLITICAL KILLINGS & THE MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE
KNOWLEDGEABLE ON MOST ISSUES
QRT POL / CHART 13 MARCH 2010
TEODORO 2
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES/ISSUES
NO REPORTED CORRUPTION SUB-ZERO POPULARITY OF THE INCUMBENT SCANDAL ADMINISTRATION GOOD LEGISLATIVE & EXECUTIVE A LATE ENTRANT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BACKGROUND YOUTH VOTE JOHN McCAIN OF THE PHILIPPINES
TOPS THE FACEBOOK SURVEY DIVIDED CLAN (MEMBERS BELONG TO DIFFERENT SIDES OF POLITICAL FENCE) FLIP-FLOPS ON RH BILL (FAVORED IT INITIALLY THEN RETRACTED LATER) POLITICAL DYNASTY
QRT POL / CHART 14 MARCH 2010
7 3/18/2010
THERE’S NO ONE ELSE 1 CONTENDERS PROFILE
- HIS APPEAL IS ANOTHER CHANCE TO CONTINUE HIS UNFINISHED BUSINESS - A CONVICTED CRIMINAL & PROVEN INCOMPETENT - HIS 10-15% IS THE MAXIMUM SUPPORT - NO PARTY, NO FUNDS ERAP
- PROVEN LEADERSHIP SKILLS – SUBIC & RED CROSS - CONSUMMATE POLITICIAN BUT NO PARTY, NO FUNDS & NOT GETTING POPULAR SUPPORT
GORDON
- A MAVERICK - SHE’S THE ONLY ONE WHO BELIEVES IN HER
JAMBY
QRT POL / CHART 15 MARCH 2010
THERE’S NO ONE ELSE 2
- GOD’S ON HIS SIDE, BUT GOD DOESN’T VOTE
EDDIE VILLANUEVA
- OLONGAPO COUNCILOR - HOPES TO CORNER THE CATHOLIC VOTE - BUT WHO DOESN’T?
JC DELOS REYES
- ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVIST - TAIL-ENDER IN ELECTION SURVEYS, A DO-GOODER (AND GOOD MAN)
NICK PERLAS
QRT POL / CHART 16 MARCH 2010
8 3/18/2010
ELECTORAL ENDORSEMENT FOR PRESIDENT
ANSWER GMA FVR SURELY VOTE FOR 45 PROBABLY VOTE FOR 12 21 PROBABLY NOT VOTE 22 25 FOR SURELY NOT VOTE 52 40 FOR NO EFFECT 7 6 DON’T KNOW / 33 REFUSED TO ANSWER
PULSE ASIA, JAN. 2010
GMA IS FOR GIBO FVR HAS YET TO ANNOUNCE HIS BET
QRT POL / CHART 17 MARCH 2010
OUR (UNWEIGHTED) ASSESSMENT
WINNING AQUINO VILLAR TEODORO VARIABLES MASS VOTE 5 7 1
YOUTHVOTE448
SUFFICIENT FUNDING 6 10 5
LGU SUPPORT338
STAR POWER 10 8 2
EL SHADDAI VOTE 4 7 1
SURVEY FRONTRUNNER 10 9 3
EFFECTIVE 6104 CAMPAIGNING OPPOSITION 9 7 0 INTELLIGENCE 6 8 10 TOTAL 63 73 42 HOW DOES GIBO OVERCOME THAT? QRT POL / CHART 18 MARCH 2010
9 3/18/2010
CAMPAIGN 2010 COMPARISON AQUINO VILLAR TEODORO CAMPAIGN GOOD VS. EVIL RAGS TO RICHES STORY INTELLIGENCE & STORY LINE COMPETENCE CAMPAIGN YELLOW ORANGE GREEN COLOR WEBSITE WWW.NOYNOY.PH WWW.MANNYVILLAR.COM. WWW.GIBO.PH PH CAMPAIGN LINE NO CORRUPTION, NO MAKE POVERTY HISTORY GALING AT TALINO POVERTY (COMPETENCE & INTELLIGENCE) CAMPAIGN TARLAC LAGUNA ANTIPOLO CITY KICK-OFF (NOYNOY’S HOMETOWN) (JOSE RIZAL FACTOR) (BELIEVING THAT A PLACE WITH HIGH ELEVATION IS A GOOD CHOICE) CAMPAIGN Æ SPLIT HIS SENATORIAL ÆMEDIA ENDORSEMENTS ÆCAMPUS VISITS STRATEGY TICKET INTO 2 TEAMS ÆPOL AD SATURATION ÆELOQUENCE IN (ANTI-POVERTY & ANTI- ÆPRO-POOR POSTURING PRESIDENTIAL FORA CORRUPTION) WITH 6 (HARPS ON HIS TONDO ÆBANKS ON MEMBERS TO ENSURE ORIGINS) COMMAND VOTING MAXIMUM PRESENCE ÆCOMMUNICATES IN AT THE LOCAL LEVEL NATIONWIDE FILIPINO ÆLET HIS Æ MEDIA ENDORSEMENTS ÆA PROVEN LEADER OPPOSITION Æ PROJECTING HIMSELF AS CONTENDERS THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE DESTROY EACH OF GMA OTHER Æ PLATFORM OF CHANGE ÆCAPTURE THE YOUTH
QRT POL / CHART 19 MARCH 2010
THE RACE
VILLAR EMERGED AS THE PRESIDENTIAL FRONTRUNNER AFTER ALL THE OTHER POTENTIAL MAJOR CONTENDERS WITHDREW (NOLI, LOREN, MAR, CHIZ, PING). BUT AN UNEXPECTED POLITICAL TURN OF EVENTS (CORY’S DEATH) BROUGHT NOYNOY INTO THE LIMELIGHT. NOYNOY DOMINATED THE SURVEYS FOR 3 MONTHS AFTER HE DECLARED HIS CANDIDACY. BUT VILLAR WAS ABLE TO NARROW THE LEAD WITH AQUINO 3 MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS. CREDIT IT TO HIS EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES. THE OTHER PRESIDENTIAL WANNABES ARE TRAILING FAR BEHIND. (WE IGNORE ERAP – AS ANY THINKING PERSON WOULD)
QRT POL / CHART 20 MARCH 2010
10 3/18/2010
TRUST SURVEY (PRESIDENTIABLES)(PRESIDENTIABLES)--%% CONTENDERS TRUST DISTRUST UNDECIDED REMARKS JAN-FEB JAN JAN VILLAR 70-59 12 18 - PUBLIC DON’T UNDERSTAND THE C-5 ISSUE; EFFECTIVE COUNTER PROPAGANDA AQUINO 64-64 12 23 - RIDING TOO MUCH ON THE COAT TAILS OF HIS PARENTS - NOT DECISIVE ENOUGH ESTRADA 33-40 37 29 - PEOPLE REMEMBER HIS STINT AS PRESIDENT TEODORO 32-29 31 36 - TOO MANY UNDECIDED DUE TO HIS ASSOCIATION WITH GMA GORDON 26-25 34 38 - NOT WELL ENOUGH KNOWN, PROVEN TRAPO VILLANUEVA 15 53 29 - SEPARATION OF CHURCH & STATE ISSUE - TAIL-ENDER IN ’04 POLLS MADRIGAL 14 47 37 - NO ONE BELIEVES HER BUT HERSELF ACOSTA 5 51 22 - VIRTUALLY UNKNOWN DE LOS REYES 4 50 27 - VIRTUALLY UNKNOWN PERLAS 4 54 22 - VIRTUALLY UNKNOWN PULSE ASIA, JAN-FEB 2010
QRT POL / CHART 21 MARCH 2010
1998 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
ACTUAL % MARCH 1998 CONTENDERS RANK RESULT RANK POINT SWS SURVEY COMELEC CHANGE ESTRADA 28% 1 39.9% 1 11.9% JDV 14% 2 15.9% 2 1.9% ROCO 11% 3 13.8% 3 2.8% E. OSMEÑIA 9% 4 12.4% 4 3.4% LIM 14% 2 8.7% 5 -5.3% DE VILLA 5% 6 4.9% 6 -0.1% SANTIAGO 7% 5 3.0% 7 -4% ENRILE 2% 7 13%1.3% 8 -07%0.7% DUMLAO 0.4% 9 0.12% 9 -0.28% MORATO 0.9% 8 0.07% 10 -0.83% I. MARCOS 2% 7 DIDN’T RUN UNDECIDED 7% -
QRT POL / CHART 22 MARCH 2010
11 3/18/2010
2004 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
ACTUAL % POINT CONTENDERS MARCH 2004 RANK RESULT RANK CHANGE COMELEC
GMA 31.4% 2 39.9% 1 8.5% FPJ 32% 1 36.5% 2 4.5% LACSON 11.2% 4 10.9% 3 0.3% ROCO 15% 3 6.5% 4 -8.5% VILLANUEVA 2.8% 5 6.2% 5 3.4% DE CASTRO - 2 DIDN’T RUN
HONASAN - - DIDN’T RUN ROXAS - - DIDN’T RUN UNDECIDED 7.6% - - -
8.5% - 4.5% = 4% = 1.1 M VOTES = GARCI
QRT POL / CHART 23 MARCH 2010
PREPRE––ELECTIONELECTION SWS SURVEY
DEC 5-10, DEC 27-28, JAN 21-24, FEB 24-28, 2009 2009 2010 2010 AQUINO 46% 44% È 42% È 36% È
VILLAR 27% 33% Ç 35% Ç 34% È
ESTRADA 16% 15% È 13% È 15% Ç
TEODORO 5% 5% 4% È 6% Ç
VILLANUEVA 1% 1% 2% Ç 3% Ç
GORDON 0.9% 0.5% È 2% Ç 2%
ACOSTA NOT LISTED NOT LISTED 0.3% 0.4% Ç
PERLAS 0.03% NOT LISTED 0.1% 0.2% Ç
DELOS REYES 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% È
MADRIGAL 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% È
QRT POL / CHART 24 MARCH 2010
12 3/18/2010
THE TREND
50 AQUINO 45 40
35 VILLAR 30 25 20 15 ESTRADA 10
TEODORO 5 VILLANUEVA 0
QRT POL / CHART 25 MARCH 2010
TRUST
TEODORO IS MOVING UP. BUT HE NEEDS A MAJOR UPSET, OR MIRACLE TO WIN (BOTH CAN HAPPEN IN THE PHILIPPINES) HIS ASSOCIATION WITH GMA IS WEIGHING HIM DOWN. ONE WONDERS WHY SHE IS BACKING A PROBABLE LOSER. TEODORO DENIES THAT HE’S JUST A POLITICAL DECOY THE PALACE ALSO DENIES “VILLARROYO” DEAL AND RE-AFFIRMS ITS COMMITMENT TO TEODORO. A PALACE DENIAL ALMOST GUARANTEES IT’S TRUE. HE’S GETTING PARTY AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND HAS A NON-EXISTENT SENATE TEAM MANY BELIEVE THAT HE’S A “GOOD MAN FORCED TO PLAY WITH THE WRONG TEAM.” QRT POL / CHART 26 MARCH 2010
13 3/18/2010
SOME PEOPLE AROUND THEM
NONOY AQUINO MANNY VILLAR GIBO TEODORO
MAR ROXAS LOREN LEGARDA EDU MANZANO
ED ROCES (SON OF CHINO) ALLAN & PIA CAYETANO MIKE TOLEDO (MEDIA)
PEPING COJUANGCO JOKER ARROYO PROSPERO PICHAY
DANDING COJUANGCO NOLI DE CASTRO PETER FAVILA
FRANCIS PANGALINAN JOJO (HIS BROTHER) JOEY SALCEDA
RECTO, DRILON REMULLA BROTHERS FVR
BUTCH ABAD, DINKY SOLIMAN ZAMORA BROTHERS PROSPERO NOGRALES
PAUL AQUINO (UNCLE) MAGDALO GMA BLACK & WHITE MOVEMENT SOME LEFTISTS
HYATT 10
FSGO
JOVITO SALONGA
AVELINO CRUZ
DE QUIROS
ABS-CBN
QRT POL / CHART 27 MARCH 2010
VICE PRESIDENCY
COMPARISON ROXAS LEGARDA BINAY
POSITION SENATOR SENATOR MAYOR PARTY LP NPC PDP-LABAN EDUCATION ECON ATENEO, WHARTON BROAD COMM LAW, UP. UST SCHOOL OF ECON UP, NDCP ADVOCACY CHEAPER MEDICINE ECOLOGY, WOMEN’S SOCIAL SERVICES, WAR ON POVERTY HEALTH LOCAL AUTONOMY, HUMAN RIGHTS STRENGTHS - NOT INVOLVED IN ANY - SENATORIAL - ACTION MAN SCANDAL TOPNOTCHER (2X) - LED MAKATI TO - VISAYAN VOTE - MEDIA FINANCIAL - SENATORIAL BACKGROUND INDEPENDENCE TOPNOTCHER - LGU BACKGROUND - RICH - EXPERIENCE IN LEGISLATIVE & EXECUTIVE BRANCH - POLITICAL CAPITAL WEAKNESSES - POLITICAL TURNCOAT - POLITICAL - ASSOCIATION W/ - BLAND TURNCOAT ERAP - NO STRONG PARTY - POLITICAL DYNASTY SUPPORT - LOST AS VP IN ‘04 - FAR 2ND IN SURVEYS
QRT POL / CHART 28 MARCH 2010
14 3/18/2010
SURVEY ON VP RACE
CONTENDER PARTY STANCE SURVEY VOTES RATING ROXAS LP OPPN 45% 18-M LEGARDA NPC OPPN 28% 11.2-M BINAY PDP-LABAN OPPN 17% 6.8-M FERNANDO BAGUMBAYAN ADMIN 3% 1.2-M
MANZANO LAKAS-KAMPI ADMIN 2% 1.8-M
YASAY BANGON PILIPINAS OPPN 1% 400,000 PARTY SONZA KBL OPPN 0.4% 160,000 CHIPECO ANG OPPN 0.4% 160,000 KAPATIRAN SOURCE: FEB. 2010 SWS SURVEY
QRT POL / CHART 29 MARCH 2010
TRUST SURVEY FOR VP
CONTENDERS TRUST DISTRUST UNDECIDED REMARKS (%) (%) (%) ROXAS (SENATOR) 73 10 16 - SACRIFICED HIS PRESIDENTIAL BID TO GIVE WAY TO AQUINO LEGARDA 61 17 22 - TURNCOAT (SENATOR) BINAY 44 26 28 - ASSOCIATION WITH (MAKATI MAYOR) ERAP - LIMITED EXPERIENCE IN NAT’L ADMINISTRATION MANZANO 20 45 33 - ASSOCIATION WITH GMA (EX-OMB CHAIR) - LAST CHOICE BY LAKAS FOR VP FERNANDEZ 18 46 - IRON HAND (EX-MMDA CHAIR) 34 ADMINISTRATOR SONZA (TV HOST) 10 57 25 - LIMITED VIEWERSHIP
YASAY (EX-SEC 85823- VIRTUALLY UNKNOWN CHAIR) CHIPECO (SCHOOL 5 52 27 - VIRTUALLY UNKNOWN DIRECTORY)
PULSE ASIA, JAN. 2010
QRT POL / CHART 30 MARCH 2010
15 3/18/2010
VISITORS TO CONGRESS IN SESSION
QRT POL / CHART 31 MARCH 2010
LIBERAL PARTY SENATE SLATE
1 REBEL SOLDIER (DANNY LIM) 1 ACTIVIST (RISA HONTIVEROS) 3 EX-CONGRESSMEN (TG GUINGONA, RUFFY BIAZON, NERIC ACOSTA) 4 MEMBERS OF CIVIL SOCIETY (MARTIN BAUTISTA, ALEX LACSON, SONIA ROCO, YASMIN BUSRAN-LAO) 3 RETURNING SENATORS (FRANK DRILON, SERGE OSMENA, RAPLH RECTO)
QRT POL / CHART 32 MARCH 2010
16 3/18/2010
NACIONALISTA PARTY SENATE SLATE
EX-SOLDIERS (ARIEL QUERUBIN, RAMON MITRA)
2 EX-CONGRESSMEN (BONGBONG MARCOS, GILBERT REMULLA)
1 EX-CABINET OFFICIAL (SUSAN OPLE)
2 LAWYERS (GWENDOLYN PIMENTEL-GANA, ADEL TAMANO)
2 ACTIVISTS (LIZA MAZA, SATUR OCAMPO)
2 RE-ELECTIONISTS (PIA CAYETANO, MIRIAM SANTIAGO)
QRT POL / CHART 33 MARCH 2010
LAKASLAKAS--KAMPIKAMPI--CMDCMD SENATE SLATE
2 ENTERTAINERS (AREN’T THEY ALL) LITO LAPID BONG REVILLA
1 RADIO COMMENTATOR REY LANGIT
2 LAWYERS SILVESTRE BELLO RAUL LAMBING
1 LGU OFFICIAL RAMON GUICO
A WEAK SLATE — WHY?
QRT POL / CHART 34 MARCH 2010
17 3/18/2010
SENATE IN 2010?
AQUINO VILLAR TEODORO
CARRY – OVER SENATORS
AQUINO, ESCUDERO, LACSON, VILLAR, ALAN CAYETANO, PANGILINAN LEGARDA, ZUBIRI (4) ARROYO, TRILLANES (5) UP-FOR-GRABS ANGARA, HONASAN (2)
SENATORIAL CONTENDERS (TOP 12 IN SURVEYS)
DRILON, RECTO, OSMENA, PIA CAYETANO, MARCOS (2) REVILLA GUINGONA (4) UP-FOR-GRABS ESTRADA, SANTIAGO, ENRILE, SOTTO, JOEY DE VENECIA (5)
8 7 2
QRT POL / CHART 35 MARCH 2010
MAGIC 12
CONTENDERS PARTY STANCE RANK REVILLA LAKAS-KAMPI PRO-GMA 1
CAYETANO NP ANTI-GMA 2-3
JINGGOY PMP ANTI-GMA 2-3 ESTRADA DEFENSOR- PRP PRO-GMA 4 SANTIAGO DRILON LP ANTI-GMA 5
ENRILE PMP PRO-GMA 6
SOTTO NPC PRO-GMA 7
RECTO LP ANTI-GMA 8
MARCOS KBL ANTI-GMA 9
OSMENA IND ANTI-GMA 10
GUINGONA LP ANTI-GMA 11
JOEY DE VENECIA PMP ANTI-GMA 12
OPPN DOMINATES AGAIN THE SENATE 12 OUT OF 12 ARE TRAPOS
QRT POL / CHART 36 MARCH 2010
18 3/18/2010
NEXT 12
CONTENDERS PARTY STANCE RANK LAPID LAKAS-KAMPI PRO-GMA 13
PIMENTEL, GWEN PDP-LABAN ANTI-GMA 14
BIAZON, RUFFY LP ANTI-GMA 15
ROCO LP ANTI-GMA 16
TATAD GRAND ALLIANCE ANTI-GMA 17-18 FOR DEMOCRACY REMULLA NP ANTI-GMA 17-18
LACSON, ALEX LP ANTI-GMA 19
MITRA, RAMON NP - 20
LOZADA, JOSE PMP ANTI-GMA 21
HONTIVEROS LP ANTI-GMA 22-23
LANGIT LAKAS-KAMPI PRO-GMA 22-23
LIM IND ANTI-GMA 24
QRT POL / CHART 37 MARCH 2010
PREVIOUS SENATE RACE RESULT
ELECTION PRESIDENT SENATE RACE REMARKS YEAR TURN OUT 1995 FVR ADMIN-9 FAVORABLE TO FVR OPPN – 3 1998 FVR ADMIN – 5 UNFAVORABLE TO FVR OPPN – 7 2001 GMA ADMIN – 8 FAVORABLE TO GMA, OPPN – 5 UNFAVORABLE TO ERAP 2004 GMA ADMIN – 7 FAVORABLE TO GMA OPPN – 5 2007 GMA ADMIN – 1 UNFAVORABLE TO GMA OPPN – 10 IND – 1
2010 WILL BE A REPEAT OF 2007
QRT POL / CHART 38 MARCH 2010
19 3/18/2010
THE PARTY LIST (WATCH OUT FOR THE GATE CRASHERS) THE PARTY LIST SYSTEM WAS ENACTED IN ‘95. ITS AIM WAS TO GIVE MARGINALISED GROUPS REPRESENTATION IN CONGRESS WHAT MIGHT HAVE SEEMED A GOOD IDEA HAS BEEN BASTARDIZED BY POLITICIANS TO FURTHER ENTRENCH THEMSELVES IN POWER. SOME PARTY LISTS ARE BOGUS SERVING ONLY AS GOV’T, SECURITY & RELIGIOUS FRONTS. IT ALSO SERVED AS ALTERNATIVE PARALLEL ROUTE FOR GMA SUPPORTERS TO ASSURE THEIR CONTINUED DOMINANCE IN CONGRESS TO WARD OFF IMPEACHMENT AND NOW TO WIN THE SPEAKERSHIP E.G. MARILOU ARROYO (GMA’S SISTER-IN-LAW) WHO WON TO REPRESENT BALUT VENDORS AND NOW MIKEY ARROYO & ANGELO REYES TO REPRESENT THE SECURITY GUARDS AND THE TRANSPORT SECTORS, RESPECTIVELY COMELEC TOLERATES IT
QRT POL / CHART 39 MARCH 2010
QRT POL / CHART 40 MARCH 2010
20 3/18/2010
TRABU (TRADITIONAL BUREAUCRATS) = TRAPO (TRADITIONAL POLITICIANS)
OFFICIAL POSITION TO BE POSITION REPLACEMENT VACATED RUNNING FOR EDUARDO EXECUTIVE BATANGAS REP LEANDRO ERMITA SECRETARY MENDOZA AGNES JUSTICE SECRETARY QUEZON REP ALBERTO AGRA DEVANADERA HERMOGENES PRESIDENTIAL PANGASINAN REP. ELENA BAUTISTA ESPERON MANAGEMENT STAFF DIR.GEN. AUGUSTO TESDA DIR.GEN. ILOILO REP. ROGELIO PEYUAN SYJUCO RAUL GONZALEZ LEGAL ADVISER ILOILO MAYOR NATIVIDAD DIZON
ROLANDO BUDGET SECRETARY CAMARINES SUR JOAQUIN ANDAYA REP. LAGONERA ARTHUR YAP AGRICULTURE BOHOL REP. BERNARD SECRETARY FONDEVILLA
TO LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD, THE SC RULED THAT ALL APPOINTIVE OFFICIALS SEEKING ELECTIVE POSITIONS ARE DEEMED RESIGNED AND MUST RELINQUISH THEIR POSTS
QRT POL / CHART 41 MARCH 2010
MORE RAVAMPS
OFFICE FROM TO TRADE & INDUSTRY DEP’T PETER FAVILA JESLI LAPUS EDUCATION DEP’T JESLI LAPUS MONA VALISNO AFP CHIEF OF STAFF VICTOR IBRADO DELFIN BANGIT TRANSPORTATION & LEANDRO MENDOZA ANNELIE LONTOC COMMUNICATION DEP’T MARITIME INDUSTRY ELENA BAUTISTA ANGELO VERDAN AUTHORITY MINDANAO DEV’T VIRGILIO LEYRETANA JESUS DUREZA AUTHORITY
QRT POL / CHART 42 MARCH 2010
21 3/18/2010
HOW COMELEC’S POLL AUTOMATION WILL WORK—WORK—OR IS SUPPOSED TO
1. EVERY VOTER GETS ONLY ONE BALLOT
2. THE VOTER SHADES THE OVAL NEXT TO THE NAME OF THE CHOSEN CANDIDATE WITH A SPECIAL MARKING PEN
3. THE VOTER FEEDS HIS BALLOT INTO THE VOTING MACHINE AND WAITS UNTIL THE BALLOT IS AUTOMATICALLY DROPPED INTO THE BALLOT BOX
4. THE ELECTION INSPECTORS MONITORS THE PCOS SCREEN TO MAKE SURE THAT THE BALLOT WAS SUCCESSFULLY ACCEPTED.
5. THE CHAIRMAN APPLIES INDELIBLE INK ON THE RIGHT FOREFINGER NAIL OF THE VOTER
6. THE VOTER AFFIXES HIS THUMBMARK ON THE CORRESPONDING SPACE IN THE COMPUTERIZED VOTERS LIST
7. AFTER THE VOTING CLOSES, THE MACHINE TALLIES THE VOTES CAST.
8. ELECTRONIC TRANSMITTAL TO THE MUNICIPAL, PROVINCIAL AND COMELEC HQ
9. PROCLAMATION IN LESS THAN 2 DAYS THAT’S THE THEORY
QRT POL / CHART 43 MARCH 2010
A HIGH RISK PROJECT
SOFT WARE/HARD WARE BALLOT/BALLOT BOX TRANSMISSION
Æ 4% OF THE PCOS THAT Æ INSUFFICIENT TIME TO Æ THERE IS NO UNDERWENT STRESS FINISH CUSTOMIZATION FUNCTIONAL TEST FAILED AND PRINTING OF GEOGRAPHIC INFO Æ THE MANDATED RELEASE BALLOTS AND SYSTEM ON OF THE SOURCE CODE CUSTOMIZATION OF LOCATION/ADEQUACY OF FOR REVIEW BY MACHINES TELCO FACILITIES, ROAD INTERESTED POLITICAL Æ THERE’S NO ASSURANCE NETWORKS AND POWER PARTIES AND GROUPS THAT MACHINES WILL LINES THROUGHOUT THE WAS NOT COMPLIED REACH THEIR COUNTRY IN ORDER TO WITH BECAUSE THE DESTINATION AND STILL ENSURE THE ELECTRONIC SOURCE CODE WAS NOT BE FUNCTIONAL GIVEN DELIVERY OF VOTES. MADE AVAILABLE. PREVAILING LOCAL Æ USE OF CELLPHONE Æ A VOTER SHOULD BE CONDITIONS OF ROAD JAMMERS TO ABLE TO VERIFY THAT AND SEA NETWORKS IN DELAY/PREVENT HIS MARKS ON THE THE PHILIPPINES. TRANSMISSION RESULT BALLOT ARE PROPERLY Æ FONT IS TOO SMALL FOR Æ 30% OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATED BY THE POOR EYE SIGHT ARE DEAD SPOTS SO PCOS INTO VOTES. Æ LACK OF ASSURANCE TO TRANSMISSION WILL BE VOTER VERIFICATION IS FINISH THE BALLOT DIFFICULT, IF NOT A DISABLED FUNCTION. PRINTING ON APRIL 25. IMPOSSIBLE ANOTHER PRESS Æ PROBLEMATIC SATELLITE ORDERED – WILL IT BE SIGNAL ENOUGH?
QRT POL / CHART 44 MARCH 2010
22 3/18/2010
A HIGH RISK PROJECT
HUMAN ERROR VALIDATION/CONTINGENCY TRAINING
Æ POSSIBILITY OF VOTERS Æ SAMPLE SIZE FOR AUDIT OF ONE Æ 60% OF FILIPINOS WRITING UNNECESSARY PRECINCT PER CONGRESSIONAL HAVE LITTLE OR MARKING OR SMUDGES DISTRICT IS TOO LOW ALMOST NO GETTING REJECTED BY Æ AUDIT TO BE DONE AFTER KNOWLEDGE THE MACHINE RESULTS. IT SHOULD BE BEFORE ABOUT THE Æ IMPROPER SHADING OF AUTOMATED BALLOTS = NULL & VOID ELECTION SYSTEM. Æ SIMULATION DOESN’T Æ DELAY IN THE REPRESENT THE ACTUAL TRAINING OF SCENARIO ON ELECTION TECHNICAL DAY (I.E. CROWD PERSONNEL AND CONTROL, MACHINE TEACHERS EFFICIENCY) (RESCHEDULED FROM NOVEMBER TO APRIL)
TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES TOO LITTLE TESTING TOO FREQUENT DELAYS TOO LITTLE TIME TOO UNTRUSTED TOO…..
QRT POL / CHART 45 MARCH 2010
CONSIDER THIS SCENARIO REGISTERED VOTERS 50-M 50-M
VOTER’S TURN OUT (80%) 40-M 40-M
ALSO RANS (6%) 2.4-M 2.4-M
ERAP (13-16%) 5.2-M 6.4-M
GIBO (5-7%) 2-M 2.8-M
TOTAL WASTED VOTES 9.7-M 11.6-M
LEFT TO SHARE 30.3-M 28.4-M
NEEDED TO WIN 15.2M 14.2M
LATEST RATINGS AQUINO = 36% = 14.4M Æ DIFFERENTIAL 0.8M VILLAR = 34% = 13.6M SO IT ONLY NEEDS 2% OF PRECINCTS TO (SWS, FEB. 2010) FAIL FOR NO ELECTION RESULT FOR PRESIDENT THAT’S HIGHLY LIKELY FAILURE IN PRECINCTS 2-M VOTES 8-M VOTES (5-20%) BASED ON 40 VOTER TURN OUT DIFFERENTIAL NEEDED TO WIN MORE THAN 2-M VOTES MORE THAN 8-M VOTES 5% 20%
SO IT WON’T TAKE MUCH TO UPSET THE NAT’L RESULT BUT STILL SUCCEED LOCALLY = WE HAVE A HOUSE – AND GUESS WHO
QRT POL / CHART 46 MARCH 2010
23 3/18/2010
IT’S LEGAL – BUT IS IT MORAL?
“WHERE NO PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT SHALL HAVE BEEN CHOSEN OR SHALL HAVE QUALIFIED, OR WHERE BOTH SHALL HAVE DIED OR BECOME PERMANENTLY DISABLED, THE PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE OR, IN CASE OF HIS DISABILITY, THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SHALL ACT AS PRESIDENT UNTIL A PRESIDENT OR A VICE-PRESIDENT SHALL HAVE BEEN CHOSEN AND QUALIFIED” (ART 7 SEC 7)
WHERE NONE OF THE 4 ARE THERE THEN:
“THE CONGRESS SHALL BY LAW PROVIDE FOR THE MANNER IN WHICH ONE WHO IS TO ACT AS PRESIDENT SHALL BE SELECTED UNTIL A PRESIDENT OR VICE PRESIDENT SHALL HAVE QUALIFIED”
“AN ACTING PRESIDENT EXERCISES THE POWERS AND FUNCTIONS OF THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT UNTIL A PRESIDENT SHALL HAVE QUALIFIED OR SHALL HAVE BEEN ELECTED AND QUALIFIED”
IT’S PRETTY OBVIOUS WHO’D BE CHOSEN
QRT POL / CHART 47 MARCH 2010
IF
IF A PRESIDENT ISN’T ELECTED, A 2ND ATTEMPT MUST BE CALLED WITHIN 30 DAYS. GMA COULD OVERSEE THAT, SHE’S STILL PRESIDENT. IF THAT TOO FAILS, AS IT WILL (YOU CAN’T EVEN PRINT 50-M BALLOTS IN 30 DAYS) THEN AN ACTING PRESIDENT MUST BE CHOSEN. THAT ACTING PRESIDENT COULD ACT FOR A LONG TIME. EVEN HOLD CHA-CHA TO FORM A PARLIAMENT, AND IN GMA’S CASE, CONTINUE HER REIGN. THE RUN FOR CONGRESS MIGHT JUST BE A PLOY – A FEINT TO THE LEFT, A RUSE TO DISARM US, DISTRACT US FROM HER REAL INTENT. SHE DID SAY HER GOAL WAS CLEAN, SUCCESSFUL ELECTIONS WITH A SMOOTH TURN OVER OF POWER. SO WE KNOW THAT’S NOT WHAT SHE’S REALLY PLANNING
QRT POL / CHART 48 MARCH 2010
24 3/18/2010
THERE’S ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IF THE MARGIN OF THE LEADING PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER OVER THE 2ND LINER IS LESS THAN THE PERCENT OF THE VOTES FROM THE POLLING CENTERS WHERE FAILURE OCCURS
THEN THERE’S NO DULY-PROCLAIMED PRESIDENT, VP, SENATORS. MEANWHILE ENOUGH (FOR QUORUM) OF LOCAL POSTS GET OCCUPIED IN THE HOUSE
THE HOUSE CONVENES AND ELECTS ITS SPEAKER WHO IS THEN ACTING PRESIDENT
WILL A GLORIA-DOMINATED COURT UPHOLD SUCH MANEUVERING?
WILL THE MILITARY INTERVENE IN A PERIOD OF POLITICAL CRISIS?
QRT POL / CHART 49 MARCH 2010
BUT 2 WAYS BOTH THOSE PLANS CAN BE THWARTED:
IT NEEDS 5-20% POINTS MARGIN TO WIN
ROXAS HAS A 17% POINT LEAD HE BECOMES ACTING PRESIDENT OR, IF HE DOESN’T MAKE IT
IT ONLY NEEDS 1 SENATOR TO ACHIEVE THE MAGIC MARGIN – IF THEY’LL ALL AGREE TO VOTE A SENATE PRESIDENT BUT THERE ARE 2 GMA LOYALISTS IN THE HOLDOVER 12.
SO TO BE SAFE YOU’D NEED 3-4 SENATORS WITH SUFFICIENT MARGIN.
SENATORS RUNNING UNOPPOSED, OR WITH WIDE MARGINS REVILLA 54% - ADMIN PIA CAYETANO 51% - OPPN ESTRADA 47% - OPPN SANTIAGO 46% - IND DRILON 45% - OPPN RECTO 41% - OPPN ENRILE 40% - IND
“THE BEST-LAID PLANS OF MICE AND MEN GANG AFT A-GLEY.” -ROBERT BURNS
QRT POL / CHART 50 MARCH 2010
25 3/18/2010
WHATEVER
IT IS. IF IT MEANS HER STAYING ON BEYOND JUNE 30
REVOLUTION FOLLOWS
QRT POL / CHART 51 MARCH 2010
FORTUNATELY
THAT REALIZATION IS SINKING IN. THE MASSIVE, UNEXPECTED MASSIVE OUTPOURING OF GRIEF AT CORY’S WAKE WAS AS MUCH AN EXPRESSION OF REVULSION AGAINST WHAT WAS SEEN AS THE OPPOSITE OF GMA. THE MESSAGE WAS VERY CLEAR:
“WE’VE BEEN PATIENT WAITING A PEACEFUL CONSTITUTIONAL TURN-OVER OF POWER. BUT IF THAT FAILS WE’LL GO BACK TO THE STREETS.” -FILIPINO PEOPLE
THE MILITARY (WHO IS THE ULTIMATE POWER)
“THE PEN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE SWORD.” - EDWARD BULWER-LYTTON
“BUT THE GUN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE PEN.” -PETER WALLACE
KNOWS THAT.
THEY WON’T SUPPORT AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL ENDEAVOR
QRT POL / CHART 52 MARCH 2010
26 3/18/2010
THE EMPEROR
“MY PURPOSE AS THE CHIEF-OF-STAFF IS TO LEAD THE ARMED FORCES OF THE PHILIPPINES TO RENDER PROFESSIONAL AND PATRIOTIC SERVICE WORTHY OF THE FILIPINO PEOPLES RESPECT. I WILL NOT ALLOW ANYBODY TO USE ME FOR PARTISAN POLITICS, ONLY GOD CAN USE ME. (GLORIA THINKS SHE IS GOD?) SO CRITICAL IS THIS FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS THAT ALL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS – EVEN THE MOST UNLIKELY SCENARIO THAT I AM HERE TO DESTROY DEMOCRACY – HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TO THE FORE. YOUR AFP TODAY HAS IMPROVED SO MUCH IN TERMS OF PROFESSIONALISM. WE ARE NOT ABOVE THE LAW, WE ARE NOT ABOVE OUR CIVILIAN LEADERS. WE ARE THE GUARDIANS OF THE CONSTITUTION, WE CARRY THE DEEPEST REGARD FOR OUR PEOPLE. WILL WE BETRAY OUR PEOPLE IN THIS TIME WHEN OUR COUNTRY NEEDS FAITHFUL SERVICE THE MOST? - DEFINITELY NOT”.
QRT POL / CHART 53 MARCH 2010
THE EMPEROR
“I PLEAD: PLEASE, PLEASE SPARE YOUR ARMED FORCES FROM POLITICS WE COULD DO MORE FOR OUR COUNTRY IF YOU LET US FOCUS ON OUR MISSION”. I AM FOR THE HEALTHY EXERCISE OF DEMOCRACY. I WILL DO EVERYTHING IN MY POWER TO FIGHT THE ENEMIES OF DEMOCRACY. I AM ONE WITH THEM IN DEFENDING THIS INSTITUTION FROM PARTISAN POLITICS. WE WILL PROTECT YOUR VOTES AS IF THEY WERE OUR OWN. THIS IS NOT LIP SERVICE WE HAVE CONCRETE PLANS FOR THIS. IF YOU WANT PROOF” JOIN OUR CRUSADE FOR CREDIBLE ELECTIONS. I WILL SUPPORT AND DEFEND THE CONSTITUTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES. I WILL FIGHT ALL FORCES THAT WOULD DESTROY THE FREEDOM AND INDEPENDENCE OF THE FILIPINO PEOPLE. I WILL OBEY ALL LAWS, LEGAL ORDERS AND DECREES OF MY LAWFUL SUPERIOR AT ALL TIMES”. QRT POL / CHART 54 MARCH 2010
27 3/18/2010
GMA’S POSTPOST--20102010 OPTIONS
1. ALLOW CLEAN (RELATIVELY) ELECTIONS. THEN PROVE HER INNOCENCE IN COURT IF SHE GETS CHARGED FOR ANYTHING 2. AGGRESSIVELY SUPPORT A FRIENDLY SUCCESSOR BY ALL MEANS POSSIBLE, AND EXPECT PROTECTION THEREAFTER — SHE CHOSE TEODORO, OR DID SHE? 3. ORCHESTRATE FAILURE OF NAT’L ELECTIONS BUT SUCCESSFUL LOCAL. BECOME SPEAKER AND HOLD- OVER PRESIDENT THEN PUSH A SHIFT TO PARLIAMENTARY, THEN RUN AS PRIME MINSTER. 4. ORCHESTRATE A FULL FAILURE OF ELECTIONS Æ TRANSITION GOV’T THAT HAS NO END 5. DECLARE MARTIAL LAW (OR TRY TO)
IS THERE SOMETHING MORE CUNNING?
QRT POL / CHART 55 MARCH 2010
THEY’RE WHITTLING DOWN
3 IS BECOMING UNWORKABLE -IF THE NUMBERS HOLD
4 LEADS TO EDSA VI
5 CAN NO LONGER HAPPEN UNLESS THE MILITARY WAS FORCED TO INITIATE IT THEMSELVES.
WE CAN’T SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS WOULD BE NECESSARY. THEY KNOW IT’S THE WRONG THING TO DO.
SOME VERSION OF 1 OR 2 NOW THE ALMOST ONLY OPTION
– IF COMELEC DON’T GET IT’S ACT TOGETHER (4 IS WHERE THE RISK LIES)
QRT POL / CHART 56 MARCH 2010
28 3/18/2010
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t AGAINST MONOPOLIES IN PUBLIC UTILITIES, TRADE, ENERGY GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION t FOCUS ON HIGH-VALUE ADDED INDUSTRIES t REDUCE POWER RATES – BUT NOT CLEAR ON HOW TO DO IT t INCREASE THE COMPETITIVENESS OF FILIPINO SEAFARERS t PHILIPPINES ISN’T READY FOR FREETRADE YET VILLAR t TAP THE COUNTRY’S LARGE POOL OF ECONOMISTS TO FORMULATE A NEW ECONOMIC MODEL THAT WOULD ENSURE GROWTH AMID THE GLOBAL CRISIS t PROMOTE ENTREPRENEURSHIP AMONG RETURNING OFWS t ENSURE POLICY CONSISTENCY TO BOOST BUSINESS t CHINA & INDIA ARE HIS MODEL COUNTRIES TEODORO t SUPPORTS PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO PURSUE INFRA DEV’T t ALLOW FOREIGNERS TO OWN LAND TO BUILD FACTORIES, TOURISM FACILITIES, COMMERICAL INDUSTRIAL ZONES BUT NOT MARINE, MINERAL & AGRI RESOURCES t STOP SMUGGLING BY SCALING UP THE PROTECTION OF COASTLINES & INSTITUTING TARIFF AND CUSTOMS SYSTEMS REFORM t OPEN TO AMENDING SOME STRONGLY PROTECTIONIST ECONOMIC PROVISIONS OF THE CHARTER
TEODORO WINS QRT POL / CHART 57 MARCH 2010
FOREIGN DEBT
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t SUPPORTS DEBT CONDONATION t CALLS FOR A REVIEW OF THE COUNTRY’S OUTSTANDING DEBTS VILLAR t SUPPORTS DEBT MORATORIUM TO ENABLE HIGHLY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES TO RECOVER t CALLS FOR A DEBT RELIEF COUNCIL TO REVIEW THE COUNTRY’S BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL LOAN AGREEMENTS t CALLS FOR THE CANCELLATION OF ILLEGITIMATE DEBTS t PROPOSES A DEBT CAP BILL THAT WOULD SET A CEILING ON PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT TEODORO t AGAINST DEBT REPUDIATION t INCREASE GDP TO LESSEN FOREIGN DEBT t IN SOME CASES, IT’S BETTER TO BORROW THAN IMPOSE HIGHER TAXES ON CITIZENS
TEODORO’S GOT IT RIGHT AQUINO & VILLAR ARE SCARY
QRT POL / CHART 58 MARCH 2010
29 3/18/2010
TAXATION/REVENUE GENERATION
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t IDENTIFY AND ADDRESS LEAKAGES IN THE COUNTRY’S TAX & REVENUE SYSTEM t ACHIEVE A BALANCED BUDGET FIRST BEFORE ANY TAX REDUCTION t IF POSSIBLE, NO NEW TAXES UNDER HIS ADMINISTRATION t RATIONALIZE FISCAL INCENTIVES VILLAR t URGE LGUS TO MAXIMIZE THEIR LOCAL TAX BASE AND TAP INTERNATIONAL AID t IMPOSE NEW TAXES TO INCREASE GOV’T REVENUE TEODORO t EXPAND THE TAX BASE t REDUCE TAX BURDEN OF CORPORATIONS & FIXED INCOME EARNERS t INCREASE E-VAT t RATIONALIZE FISCAL INCENTIVES t EXPAND THE WHOLE ECONOMY TO INCREASE REVENUE BECAUSE A GOOD GOV’T CAN’T AFFORD TO JUST SHIFT RESOURCES
TEODORO IS THE ONLY ONE WHO SEEMS TO HAVE EVEN A BEGINNING UNDERSTANDING OF TAXES – BUT THIS IS CAMPAIGN SEASON
QRT POL / CHART 59 MARCH 2010
EMPLOYMENT
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t UPHOLD SECURITY OF TENURE, HUMANE CONDITIONS OF WORK, LIVING WAGE AND WORKER’S DEMOCRATIC PARTICIPATION IN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES t PRIORITIZE JOB GENERATION (I.T., TOURISM & AGRI SECTOR) VILLAR t ASSIST RETURNING OFWS START TOURISM-RELATED BUSINESSES t LAUNCH ENTREPRENEURAL REVOLUTION t CREATE GREEN COLLAR JOBS (ECOLOGY EDUCATOR, ORGANIC FARMING, GREEN ARCHITECTURE, MANUFACTURING GREEN TECHNOLOGIES) t SUPPORT THE COUTRY’S CREATIVE INDUSTRIES TEODORO t ENCOURAGE VARIOUS SECTORS TO HOLD JOB EXPOS AND DEVELOP LIVELIHOOD PROGRAMS t LIBERALIZE THE ECONOMY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND INCREASE THE PEOPLE’S FINANCIAL FREEDOM
QRT POL / CHART 60 MARCH 2010
30 3/18/2010
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t BELIEVES THAT HIS FAMILY SHOULD LET GO OF HACIENDA LUISITA AND ALLOW THE FARMERS TO OWN IT VILLAR t AGRICULTURE WILL BE HIS NUMBER ONE PRIORITY t ADVOCATES BIO-ORGANIC FARMING, PROTECTION OF MARINE RESOURCES t FINANCE AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION t AGAINST FOOD AID t UPGRADE WEATHER INSTRUMENTS TO FOREWARN FARMERS OF UPCOMING TYPHOONS t DEVELOP LOCAL SEED VARIETIES AND LESSEN DEPENDENCE ON CHEMICAL-BASED INPUTS TEODORO t IMPROVE AIRPORTS & SEAPORTS TO MAXIMIZE THE REGION’S AGRO- INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIES t ALLOW JOINT VENTURES WITH FOREIGNERS TO DEVELOP AGRI LANDS – BUT THE CARP LAW DOESN’T ALLOW
THEY ALL BELIEVE IN MOTHERHOOD TOO
QRT POL / CHART 61 MARCH 2010
OIL DEREGULATION LAW (ODL)
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t AGAINST ANY FORM OF MONOPOLY AND CARTEL AS WELL AS OVER-PRICING OF BIG OIL FIRMS VILLAR t WANTS ODL AMENDED TO GIVE THE EXECUTIVE MORE POWER TO ADDRESS OIL ISSUES t AGAINST OIL CARTEL t CALLS ON THE GOV’T TO BEEF UP THE COUNTRY’S OWN OIL RESOURCES TEODORO t ADVOCATES DEREGULATION
TEODORO’S THE ONLY ONE WHO’S GOT IT RIGHT
QRT POL / CHART 62 MARCH 2010
31 3/18/2010
EDUCATION
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t REVITALIZE THE PRIVATE SCHOOL SECTOR IN ORDER TO ABSORB THE EXCESS STUDENTS IN THE PUBLIC SCHOOLS AND REDUCE THE BURDEN OF THE GOV’T IN BUILDING MORE CLASSROOMS THRU THE ISSUANCE OF VOUCHERS OF POOR PARENTS TO SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO PRIVATE SCHOOLS t PRIORITIZE THE DEV’T OF PRIMARY EDUCATION t ADOPT A 12 YEAR CYCLE OF BASIC EDUCATION t CHANGE THE START OF CLASSES TO SEPT. t SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF ERROR-RIDDEN TEXTBOOKS AND QUADRUPLE SHIF T POLICY VILLAR t FORMULATE A WELL-ROUNDED CURRICULUM WHICH WILL FULLY DEVELOP THE INTELLIGENCE OF THE STUDENTS t PRIORITIZE THE POOR STUDENTS IN STATE UNIVERSITIES t PHILIPPINE EDUCATION SHOULD COMPETE WITH THE BEST IN THE WORLD t ENGLISH AS MEDIUM OF INSTRUCTION TEODORO t IMPROVE THE CURRENT CURRICULUM’S TECHNICAL SKILLS, MATHS & ENGLISH COMPONENTS t ADD 2 YEARS IN ELEMENTARY EDUCATION t DEVISE A LOAN SYSTEM FOR POOR BUT DESERVING STUDENTS t COLLEGE DIPLOMA IN EVERY HOME
QRT POL / CHART 63 MARCH 2010
CORRUPTION
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t BELIEVES THAT GMA REGIME TOOK MONEY FROM THE PEOPLE AND VOWS TO BRING IT BACK TO THEM t BELIEVES THAT CORRUPTION IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST THREAT TO DEMOCRACY t CORRUPTION IS THE WORST FORM OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS VILLAR t UNDERSCORES THAT HE DIDN’T STEAL EVEN A CENTAVO FROM THE GOV’T t ZERO TOLERANCE FOR GRAFT AND CORRUPTION t TELEVISE PUBLIC HEARINGS ON CORRUPTION INQUIRIES TEODORO t ADVOCATES TRANSPARENCY IN FIGHTING CORRUPTION t ORDERED INTERNAL PROBES PERTAINING TO PROCUREMENT SCANDALS IN AFP
TALK IS CHEAP WILL THEY TAKE THE TOUGH ACTIONS NECESSARY? WILL THEY SET THE EXAMPLE
QRT POL / CHART 64 MARCH 2010
32 3/18/2010
PEACE AND ORDER CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t PURSUE INCLUSIVE AND TRANSPARENT PEACE NEGOTIATIONS t UNDERTAKE CROSS-CULTURAL ENCOUNTER AMONG VARIOUS ETHNIC GROUPS IN PURSUING PEACE AND CONFIDENCE BUILDING VILLAR t ”INSURGENCY IS A FUNCTION OF EITHER IDEOLOGY OR POVERTY, OR BOTH” t ECONOMIC DEV’T IS A PREREQUISITE TO PEACE AND ORDER; NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND t INCREASE HUMAN DEV’T INDEX (HDI) IN MINDANAO TEODORO t ADVOCATES WAR ON TERRORISM AS THE BOTTOM-LINE OF NAT’L SECURITY t LAMENTS ABOUT THE AFP’S SMALL FIGHTING FORCE t ADVOCATES FOR ‘DETERRENCE & DEVELOPMENT’ APPROACH TO SOLVE INSURGENCIES t DEVELOP THE ROAD NETWORKS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TO FIGHT INSURGENCIES t ENHANCE INTERNAT’L MILITARY ENGAGEMENTS AND TIES t PURSUE THE HARD (ARMED) AND SOFT (PEACE TALKS & DEV’T PROJECTS) APPROACH IN NAT’L SECURITY t PROVIDE ADEQUATE INVESTMENT IN THE DEFENSE DEP’T t EFFECTIVE DETERRENCE THRU MILITARY PRESENCE, INFRA PROJECT, ETC t CREATION OF DEP’T OF MUSLIM AFFAIRS; APPOITMENT OF MORE MUSLIMS IN THE BUREAUCRACY
VILLAR WINS THIS ONE; AQUINO IS CLUELESS
QRT POL / CHART 65 MARCH 2010
CHARTER CHANGE
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t VIEWS THAT GMA’S CHA-CHA AS BEING A DESECRATION OF CONGRESS AND A DISPLAY OF TYRANNY OF NUMBERS t IF REALLY NEEDED, THERE MUST BE DEBATES AND CONSULTATION, AND SHOULD BE DONE VIA CON-CON VILLAR tFAVORS CHA-CHA AFTER GMA’S TERM; OK WITH EITHER CON-ASS OR CON-CON TEODORO t FAVORS CHA-CHA (PRESIDENTIAL UNICAMERAL FEDERAL GOV’T) THRU CON-CON AFTER 2010 POLLS t VIEWS THAT THE 1987 CHARTER FOCUSES TOO MUCH ON CHECKS & BALANCE, NOT ON SYNERGY t VIEWS THAT THE 1987 CHARTER IS OVERLY STRICT FOR BOOOG&OSCSTH FOREIGN & DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
TEODORO HAS IT RIGHT ON ECO, NOT POLITICAL
QRT POL / CHART 66 MARCH 2010
33 3/18/2010
ELECTORAL REFORM
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t SAFEGUARD THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM FROM ELECTION CHEATING OPERATORS VILLAR t WELCOMES POLL AUTOMATION BUT FEARS THAT AUTOMATED COUNTING MAY LEAD TO AUTOMATED CHEATING HENCE A NEW BREED OF ELECTION WATCHDOG WITH COMPUTER KNOW-HOW MUST STEP FORWARD t BELIEVES THAT PEOPLE SHOULD BE WELL-INFORMED ABOUT POLL AUTOMATION PROCEDURES t CALLS THE COMELEC TO CLEAN UP THE VOTER’S LIST TEODORO t ANXIOUS ABOUT POLL AUTOMATION t BELIEVES THAT THE GOV’T SHOULD BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS TO PREVENT BASELESS ACCUSATIONS
AT LAST VILLAR GETS ONE
QRT POL / CHART 67 MARCH 2010
POLITICAL DYNASTY
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t SUPPORTS LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVE TO CLEARLY DEFINE “POLITICAL DYNASTY” (HIS MOTHER WAS PRESIDENT. WHAT CAN BE MORE DYNASTIC THAN THAT?) VILLAR t BELIEVES THAT IT’S THE CHOICE OF THE PEOPLE (THE PEOPLE SPOKE, THEY’RE AGAINST IT. DIDN’T HE LISTER?)
TEODORO t BELIEVES THAT THERE ARE 2 CATEGORIES OF POLITICAL DYNASTY, I.E. DESERVING AND UNDESERVING t WE SHOULD BE MORE PRO-ACTIVE BY DEVELOPING POLITICAL PARTIES TO ADEQUATELY FINANCE ABLE ALTERNATIVE CANDIDATES, NOT REACTIVE BY MEANS OF OUTRIGHT BANNING OF POLITICAL DYNASTIES
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE FAMILY WITH THIS LOT
QRT POL / CHART 68 MARCH 2010
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PORK BARREL
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO
VILLAR t VIEWS PORK BARREL AS A TOOL FOR NAT’L DEV’T AS LONG AS IT IS SPENT CORRECTLY t COURSE THE PORK BARREL FUNDS TO PUBLIC EDUCATION t PORK BARREL SHOULD NOT BE ABUSED TO EXACT LOYALTY FROM CONGRESSMEN TEODORO t DEVELOP COMPETENCY IN FUND MANAGEMENT AS A SOLUTION TO PORK BARREL ABUSE t DEVELOP LGU’S CAPACITY TO ABSORB AND MANAGE ALLOCATIONS AS AN EFFECTIVE DEV’T TOOL
QRT POL / CHART 69 MARCH 2010
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH (RH) BILL
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO t SOFTENED HIS STAND ON RH BILL BUT HE SUPPORTS RESPONSIBLE PARENTHOOD TO SOLVE THE COUNTRY’S POPULATION PROBLEM VILLAR t DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM THE RH ISSUE t VIEWS THAT LARGE POP’N IS POTENTIAL HUMAN CAPITAL t VIEWS THAT LARGE POP’N IS MANAGEABLE THRU THE RIGHT GOVERNANCE OF THE ECONOMY TEODORO t FAVORED RH (HIS WIFE IN CONGRESS WAS ALSO A SIGNATORY) – BUT THEY BOTH CHICKENED OUT t BELIEVES THAT THE GOV’T IS NOT THE PROPER AGENCY TO DEAL WITH A MORAL ISSUE LIKE REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
WE’LL VOTE FOR AQUINO
QRT POL / CHART 70 MARCH 2010
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POVERTY ALLEVIATION
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t PURSUE TRANSPARENCY IN THE GOV’T t STRENGTHEN THE COOPERATIVE MOVEMENT t POVERTY ISN’T ONLY THE LOSS OF MONEY BUT OPPORTUNITY VILLAR t PURSUE AN ANNUAL GDP GROWTH RATE OF NO LESS THAN 7% IN ORDER TO MAKE A DENT ON POVERTY t PROVIDE COMPETENT, FREE LEGAL SERVICE TO THE POOR t A HOME FOR EVERY POOR FILIPINOS – HIS? TEODORO t FOCUS ON ATTAINING SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ORDER TO MAKE POVERTY HISTORY AND CATAPULT THE COUNTRY TO 1ST WORLD STATUS t OPEN UP CLOSED SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY TO A WIDER MARKET t FIGHT POVERTY WITH EMPLOYMENT & LITERACY PROGRAMS
SEEMS THE POOR WILL STILL BE WITH US QRT POL / CHART 71 MARCH 2010
VISITING FORCES AGREEMENT
CONTENDERS SSCTANCE
AQUINO t BELIEVES THAT VFA SHOULD BE REVIEWED TO PROTECT THE COUNTRY’S SOVEREIGNTY VILLAR t BELIEVES THAT WHATEVER BENEFITS THAT THE PHILIPPINES IS RECEIVING FROM VFA CAN’T JUSTIFY ITS CONTINUATION t FACTOR IN PEOPLE’S SENTIMENTS REGARDING VFA t VFA MUST BE REVIEWED AND ITS TERMS RE-NEGOTIATED TEODORO t FAVORS VFA WITH U.S. t ARGUES THAT A SYSTEM OF CHECKS & BALANCE IS IN PLACE TO ADDRESS ABUSES BY U.S. SOLDIERS t SUPPORTS VFA WITH AUSTRALIA ARGUING THAT IT WILL FOSTER CONFIDENCE BUILDING AMONG THE ARMED FORCES
THE 2 FRONTRUNNERS ARE BEHIND ON THIS
QRT POL / CHART 72 MARCH 2010
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CLIMATE CHANGE
CONTENDERS STANCE
AQUINO ÆENSURE STRICT IMPLEMENTATION OF CLEAN AIR ACT ÆELIMINATE CORRUPTION IN THE TESTING OF MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS VILLAR t ADVOCATES THE USE OF RECYCLABLES, TREE PLANTING, ESTABLISHMENT OF THE OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION, PROTECTION OF FORESTS, MANGROVES AND WILDLIFE t FAVORS THE CREATION OF GREEN COURTS TO ADDRESS DELAYS IN ENVIRONMENTAL CASES t DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR GLOBAL WARMING TEODORO t BELIEVES THAT THE COUNTRY IS A VICTIM OF OTHER COUNTRY’S CARBON EMISSION
TEODORO – A COP OUT HASN’T HE SEEN MAKATI FROM A SHORT DISTANCE
QRT POL / CHART 73 MARCH 2010
DISASTER MANAGEMENT
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t RATIONALIZE THE USE OF CALAMITY FUNDS
VILLAR t ENSURE TRANSPARENCY IN USE OF CALAMITY FUNDS t FOSTER NAT’L-LOCAL PARTNERSHIP IN DISASTER MGMT t UPGRADE THE INSTRUMENTS OF WEATHER BUREAUS t ALLOT 25% OF THE LGU CALAMITY FUNDS FOR PREPARATORY ACTIVITIES & MITIGATION MEASURES t DESIGNATE ALTERNATE MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES DURING DISASTERS t REVIEW THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EXISTING PREPAREDNESS PROGRAMS TEODORO t SUPPORTS NATIONAL DISASTER BILL WHICH GIVES LGUS GREATER FINANCIAL AUTONOMY IN FINANCING DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
VILLAR IN TIMES OF CRISIS QRT POL / CHART 74 MARCH 2010
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REACTIONS TOWARDS GMA
CONTENDERS STANCE AQUINO t WANTS CLOSURE TO THOSE SCANDALS THAT INVOLVE GMA DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY t AGAINST GMA’S GAG ORDER (EO 464) THAT PREVENTS APPOINTEES FROM TESTIFYING DURING SENATE INQUIRIES t AGAINST GMA’S PRACTICE OF RE-APPOINTING CABINET OFFICIALS WHO WERE BYPASSED BY THE COMMISSION ON APPOINTMENTS (CA) MANY TIMES OVER VILLAR t WON’T INITIATE THE FILING OF CHARGES AGAINST GMA BUT WON’T PREVENT OTHERS FROM DOING SO TEODORO t GMA’S PROTÉGÉ t DOESN’T BELIEVE THAT GMA’S ANOINTMENT IS A “KISS OF DEATH”
NO ANNOUNCED STAND ON FILING OF CONVICTION CASES AGAINST HER – WHAT CAN THEY DO?
QRT POL / CHART 75 MARCH 2010
GOODBYE ?
QRT POL / CHART 76 MARCH 2010
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