Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program

Working Regionally for National Shared Prosperity Development Aspirations of Central Asia The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources THE WORLD BANK THE WORLD BANK Central Asia is endowed with water and an abun- Change of Water Availability in Central Asia dance of rich and varied energy resources—hy- Categories of water availability dropower, oil, gas, and coal. These resources can thousand m3/capita/year >1.7 significant 10 1.0-1.7 not significant support increased agricultural production and have 9 8.4 <1.0 shortage 8 the potential to exceed domestic energy demand 7 5.9 Central Asia 6 Europe to supply export markets. 5 4.2 4 3 2.55 2 However, water and energy resources across the 1 years region are highly unbalanced and access to them 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 is uneven. In some cases there is a lack of physical infrastructure and the outdated systems that exist Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse scarcity of water resources have strained relations th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m3/person/year. By 2030, at the current are unreliable and inefficient. Some communities rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a 3 region enjoying steady economic growth and new among the countries of the region. Climate change cannot meet citizens’ electricity needs during critical value of less than 1.7 th. m /year. And it is still necessary to an- development opportunities. A key element in the and population growth have the potential to strain nually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the certain times of the year, while others lack population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption. continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being resources and relations further. adequate water supply. Source: EC IFAS of the population is the smart management of the region’s energy and water resources. The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program Total Fossil Fuel MTOE Working at the national and regional levels Coal MTOE KAZAKHSTAN (CAEWDP) recognizes that strengthened cooperation Crude Oil MTOE 22,629 Gas MTOE 16,000 to manage water and energy resources 4,080 at the national and regional levels can lead to increased Hydro MTOE 2,549 Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized, can bring: MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent 58 national aspirations, such as food security and reliable incomes, poverty reduction, sustainable development, • Reliable energy supply and reduced energy services, still drive development decisions. The shared prosperity, and political stability across the region. winter energy shortages KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 590 • Higher earnings generated by exporting 5 competition for energy markets and the anticipated 580 and trading energy UZBEKISTAN 5 4,589 266 • Greater agricultural productivity through 2,851 80 1,657 more reliable access to water 32 • Improved water quality and reduced land CHINA degradation TAJIKISTAN 514 THE WORLD BANK • Better adaptation to climate change and 507 2 water/hydrological variability 5 TURKMENISTAN 412 2,698 • Cost-effective infrastructure development 82 68 • Enhanced environment for international 2,549 4 and private investment for both water AFGHANISTAN and energy Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian 2 Development Bank. 2009 3 Water Water Resources in Central Asia Water is a vital but disparate resource across the ba- Melting snow from the high peaks of the Himalayan sin. In the summer, both the Syr Darya and the Amu water tower and precipitation provide the seasonal flows Darya rivers have the potential to provide abundant to the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea Basin: low-carbon hydropower for the mountainous Kyrgyz the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The origins of the Republic and Tajikistan. Downstream, these rivers Syr Darya are the snow-covered slopes of the Tien Shan are vital arteries for livelihoods—providing water for Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic. The Amu Darya originates agriculture and local fisheries, and sustaining envi- from the glaciated northern slopes of the Hindu Kush and ronmental ecosystems, human health, and electricity from Wakhan in the Pamir Highlands in Afghanistan and generation across Central Asia. the Pamirs in Tajikistan. However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50 percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96 percent, compromising both agricultural productivity and water quality.

Improvements to Increase Efficiency THE WORLD BANK National governments are struggling to rehabilitate aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and implement innovative irrigation technologies to address these problems and improve food security and resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead, for irrigation, where agriculture on average contrib- population growth and the need for increased agri- utes 11 percent to these economies’ GDP. Proposed cultural production will continue to strain the region’s improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to water resources, making smart water management alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a both nationally and regionally a key factor for the 1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakh- result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10 stan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million percent increase in water pumping efficiency would hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters result in regional savings of $188 million per year.

4 Photo to the left and cover © Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia. 5 WATER RESOURCES OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN

Aralsk Lake Balkhash Northern Aral Sea (38) 5 Population (millions) 16.8 Ili GNI per capita (US$) $9,780 K A Z A K H S T A N GDP (billions US$) $203.5 Southern % rural population w/access to an 86% Aral Sea improved water source (2010) seasonal lake Kazakhstan Land area (1,000 sq. km) 2,699 A r a l K u m

Muynak KAZ 10 S Population (millions) 5.6 yr Da GNI per capita (US$) $990 r Karakalpakstan 7.9 ya Bishkek Ysik-Kol GDP (billions US$) $6.5 1 % rural population w/access to an 82% Sarygamysh Planned collector Lake K K Y R G Y Z R E P. improved water source (2010) a r a Chirchik- Kyrgyz Republic Land area (1,000 sq. km) 192 B Naryn o Charvak g a z G Ahangaran o Dashoguz 6.5 15 l Tashkent Horezm 4.4 U Z B E K I S T A N 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 Golden Age Lake Population (millions) 8 (under construction) (UZB) (37) GNI per capita (US$) $880 Dashoguz Collector 4 Kara Darya UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake TJK 2 (under construction) 1 GDP (billions US$) $7.6 Lebap 3.9 2 Rivers of Ferghana Valley: 8 % rural population w/access to an 64% UZB 10 Tajikistan improved water source (2010) Za T U R K M E N I S T A N rafs Land area (1,000 sq. km) 140 ha KYR 0.1 n C H I N A Great Turkmen Collector Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kashkadarya Kafarnigan (under construction) 5.3 0.3 TJK 6.6 1.2 Vakhsh Population (millions) 5.2 Dushanbe T A J I K I S T A N GNI per capita (US$) $5,410 Surhandarya Karshi 4.19 0.6 Panj GDP (billions US$) $35.2 Ashgabat UZB 1.5 Sherabad 1.4 % rural population w/access to an 54% 1.5 Amu Darya improved water source (2010) 0.5 0.2 4 20.2 Turkmenistan Land area (1,000 sq. km) 470 0.9 5.6 Karakum Canal 11

M u 33.3 r

Kokcha Average river flow and water intake by canals 3 Population (millions) 29.8 T (km /year) e Rivers of Northern

e Prospective expansion GNI per capita (US$) $1,720 n Afghanistan: 6.1 of irrigation 70 Water discharge GDP (billions US$) $51.1 30 (km3/year) % rural population w/access to an 81% I.R. OF 10 A F G H A N I S T A N 5 Uzbekistan improved water source (2010) IRAN Land area (1,000 sq. km) 425 Kunduz Mountain regions above 2000 metres Kabul Irrigated lands i Rud Source: World Bank 2012 Har 0 250 500 750 1000 km 6 7 © Zoï Environment Network Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net

ab en s h u C d In 9

THE WORLD BANK www.energia.gr The challenges are to maintain and rehabilitate infra- to maintain and rehabilitate are The challenges for new generation infrastructure provide structure, new economies, and explore growing energy-hungry, trade—both within and outside themodels for energy five-country community. Updating Infrastructure to Meet Needs to Meet Infrastructure Updating Current energy systems are becoming less reliable as becoming less reliable are energy systems Current - system deteriorates. The re the Central Asia power energy than in the early less gion is trading 90 percent transmission lines linking north1990s. Although new the improve and Tajikistan and south in Kazakhstan do not these plentiful resources distribution situation, and 2 million households across meet domestic needs by winter heat and power affected are the region shortages per year.

needs on a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective the most cost-effective a seasonal basis in needs on manner—taking maxi- friendly and environmentally abundant low-cost hydropower mum advantage of of thermal and having the reliability in the summer, - limits hydro in winter when the cold climate resources power supplies.

Central Asia is rich with diverse energy resources. In energy resources. is rich with diverse Central Asia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, countries of the downstream reserves of oil, significant are there and Turkmenistan and countries, Tajikistan gas, and coal. The upstream hydropower rich in undeveloped Kyrgyz Republic, are of such a mixed energy systempotential. The diversity all countries’ electricity an opportunity to meet offers Energy

THE WORLD BANK 8 10

CENTRAL ASIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

More effective energy and water management, including at the regional level, could accelerate investment, promote economic growth and stable livelihoods and improve environmental quality:

• $2 billion savings are available over 3 years from re- • In one Central Asian country, comprehensive storing energy trade within Central Asia and added energy efficiency measures could reduce energy environmental benefits in reduced greenhouse gas costs by $12.3 billion by 2030, avoiding invest- emissions. ments in new generating plants and reducing fuel consumption. • $200 million per year in new revenues from energy exports to South Asia from the initial phases of the CASA 1000 project.

Source: World Bank 2014

Kustanaiskaya 65˚E 80˚E Sokol Torgai

Esil Pavlodar Aksu Es RUSSIAN Zhitikara (Lisakovskaya) Ekibastuzskaya FED.

Astana RUSSIANRUSSIAN Astana FED. Vostochnaya Nura

50˚N 50˚N

Agadyr

Zhezkazgan

Zhezkazganskaya Tets

KAZAKHSTAN Lake Balkhash

Aiteke-bi (Novokazalinsk) Yukgres Balkhash 1320 MW (ADB, EBRD, IFC, Korea Exim Bank) 45˚N 45˚N Kzyl-Orda Balkhash 2640 MW

Syr Kerbulakskaya Almaty Shu Darya Alma KOKSARAI RESERVOIR Max. Volume 5 Bil. cubic meters Burnoye Kemin Zhambylskaya Ala-Bel’ Bishkek Lake SHARDARA RESERVOIR Shymkent Gres 1230 MW Issyk-Kul Max. Volume 5.2 Bil. cubic meters Kara-Keche 1200 MW Tashkent Toktogul 1200MW ARNASAI DEPRESSION Shardara 1860 MW Charvak KYRGYZ REP. Max. Volume 66 Bil. cubic meters Gazalkent Kurpsai 800 MW TOKTOGUL RESERVOIR A Angren m Novo-Angren Full storage 19.5 Bil. cubic meters u Shardarinskaya Tashkent Datka 500/220 kV 2100MW (under expansion) D Active storage 14.0 Bil. cubic meters a Kairakkum r UZBEKISTAN y 126MW Uzbekiston Lochin a Navoi Syrdarya 3000MW 1250 MW 40˚N Khudjand 40˚N Karakul’ KAIRAKKUM RESERVOIR Full storage 3.1 Bil. cubic meters Sogdiana Seidi Tajik Fang-Yagnob Coal TPP 1500 MW Active storage 2.5 Bil. cubic meters Guzar Dushanbe Dushanbe TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN Talimarjan 800 MW Nurek 3000 MW NUREK HPP AND RESERVOIR (expansion) Full storage 10.5 Bil. cubic meters CHINA Sangtuda 500/220 kV and Converter Station Sangtuda 2 C Active storage 4.5 Bil. cubic meters 200 MW Sangtuda 1 Mary Surkhan 670 MW

80˚E IBRD 40753 JULY 2014

35˚N Charikar 35˚N CENTRAL ASIA Kabul Naghlu Kabul 300MW Peshawar POWER NETWORKS Tarbela AFGHANISTAN d Peshawar Islamabad an m 1300 MW el Gazi- H Brotha UNDER PROSPECTIVE CONSTRUCTIONOPERATIONAL 765-1150 kV OVERHEAD LINES 500 kV OVERHEAD LINES 765-1150 kV SUBSTATIONS 500 kV SUBSTATIONS s

d n I.R. OF I PAKISTAN HYDRO POWER PLANTS: IRAN >1,000 MW 30˚N 30˚N 500–1000 MW

THERMAL POWER PLANTS: This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. 0 150 Kilometers INDIA >1,000 MW The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information New shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Delhi 500–1000 MW GSDPM Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any 0 150 Miles Map Design Unit endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 70˚E 75˚E 11 Climate Change in Central Asia Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya Glacial Melting Accelerating Projected to Decrease? in Central Asia? Average Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya water discharge m3/second Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to 2,000 climate change. The World Bank’s 2009 report, Adapting irrigation season Level of first measurement to Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that average 1,600 temperatures in the region have already increased by Flow today 0.5°C and are projected to increase by 1.6° to 2.6°C 1,200 Golubin by 2030-50. Regionally, climate change is projected to Sary-Tor 800 Tuyuksu lead to higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, Karabatkak Projection 2071-2100 Abramov

(5,000 mm w.e. units) (5,000 mm w.e. Urumqi No. 1 increased incidents of flooding and more severe and 400 (A1B emission scenario) Cumulative mass balance prolonged droughts, with corresponding variable water availability. The region’s vulnerability to climate change is 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 exacerbated by inefficient resource use and aging infra- Source: Shiklomanov 2009 Source: Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1592 structure, limited enforcement of regulations, and an inherited severely degraded environment.

Climate change affects all sectors vital to economic growth and development in the region, not least of which are THE WORLD BANK energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are currently estimated at 1% of GDP per year in Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will be a requirement, rather than an option, for the region.

Policies and interventions to address climate change in infrastructure and on-farm improvements can help vulnerabilities have the potential to drive innovation, offset risks. In the energy sector, energy efficiency open up new areas of investment and private sector and diversification provide both immediate economic activity, as well as promote plant-level efficiencies and benefits and help build long-term climate resilience. economic savings. For example, a clear plan to align Water demand in both sectors will emphasize the agricultural policies, develop capabilities of key agri- need for effective national and transboundary water cultural institutions, and make needed investments management. 12 13 Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program With initial activities successfully underway, the CAEWDP has established several important “building blocks.” These activities identified critical infrastructure, institutional and The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program decision making and smart investments. Global experience analytical constraints, and helped establish long-term priorities for the program. (CAEWDP) is building energy and water security by leverag- in transboundary water management encourages cross- ing the benefits of enhanced cooperation. It aims to border dialogue on coordinated management of energy strengthen security through partnerships with all five Cen- and water resources while strengthening the institutions tral Asian countries plus Afghanistan in regional initiatives that manage these resources. Regional dialogue has been In upstream countries (Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan), the and with development partners in the context of a chang- significantly bolstered by the transparent knowledge plat- focus will be to identify and secure new sources of winter ing global environment. The program delivers substantial form the program provides. energy supply and manage current shortages to reduce the burden on households and associated economic technical expertise, analytics, and diagnostics for informed impacts on small business, commercial enterprises, and industry.

The Three Pillars of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP)

In downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turk- menistan), the focus will be to improve the productivity Energy Development Water Productivity Energy-Water Linkages and efficiency of irrigation systems, address impacts of Promote and study high-value energy invest- Enhance the productive and efficient use of Improve the understanding of linkages between climate change, and help build resilience to hydrologic ments that focus on winter energy security, water in agriculture and energy sectors through energy and water at the national and regional variability. energy efficiency, trade and accountability, infra- capacity strengthening, institutional strengthen- levels through dialogue, energy-water modeling, structure planning and institutional development. ing, and investment planning. regional hydrometeorology and exploring the A basin-level future impact of climate change. Methodology water-energy for prioritizing Winter energy model based on Focus Focus Focus irrigation crisis study and Regional earth-systems Winter energy security including 3rd Aral Sea Basin Energy-water modeling investments for Analysis of action plan climate change satellite imagery infrastructure planning Management Program Regional hydrometeorology water efficiency economic benefits Promoting Regional knowledge forum and remote of power trade Energy trade National investment plans for new Climate vulnerability irrigation hydrometeorology sensing data Energy accountability and rehabilitated infrastructure for Energy-water dialogue efficiency program irrigation efficiency Knowledge portal (web-based Energy efficiency Introduction of new technologies, open access data) EARLY EFFORTS OF THE CAEWDP AND WORKS IN PROGRESS and efficient delivery of water supply services “Regional programs offer substantial potential to achieve results on development issues…. Regional projects have successfully built new assets and protected existing ones in ways expected to benefit all participating countries.”

World Bank Group Independent Evaluation 14 15 Partnerships are critical to the rational use of water and energy in Central Asia

Regional dialogue and cooperation are necessary to manage energy and A Multi-Donor Trust Fund has been established with cumulative contribu- water resources in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, tions of over US$10 million, including contributions from Switzerland and Uzbekistan as well as Afghanistan. The CAEWDP brings together ($3.71 million), the United Kingdom ($5.27 million) and the European national and regional governments, civil society organizations, an engaged Commission ($1.35 million). The trust fund’s Donor Advisory Committee international panel of advisors, donors and development partners, and provides strategic guidance to the CAEWDP. The CAEWDP has worked international financial institutions such as the World Bank. jointly with other development partners on specific activities and projects, in both water and energy, including the Swiss Development Corporation The program is founded on partnerships with governments so that (SDC), the United Nations Centre for Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA), program activities reflect national aspirations and priorities. CAEWDP also the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), partners with regional organizations whose mandates are to convene the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations discussions on regional issues, such as the International Fund for Saving Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Germany (GIZ), the United the Aral Sea (IFAS). Cooperation from the development and financing States (USAID), and the Aga Khan Foundation. communities assists the CAEWDP to meet program goals, collaborate on methodologies, provide technical assistance, or contribute funds for core The World Bank welcomes other potential partners to support liveli- program activities. hoods, economic growth, peace, and security in this important region of the world.

For further information, please contact: Daryl Fields, CAEWDP Program Manager, World Bank, [email protected] Abena Akuffo-Akoto, CAEWDP Partnership Specialist, World Bank, [email protected]