Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 43169 August 2010

INDIA: Integrated Water Resources Management Scoping Study for Sutlej River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation (Financed by the Water Financing Partnership Facility Resources, RSID)

Part 2 – Main Report

For: Asian Development Bank Government of India and Government of Himachal Pradesh

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

In preparing any country partnership strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

i

PART 2 MAIN REPORT

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh ii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

PART 2 MAIN REPORT- TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 A. BACKGROUND ...... 1 B. STUDY RATIONALE ...... 1 C. TERMS OF REFERENCE AND OUTPUTS ...... 1 D. FIRST STAGE GIS FOR THE SATLUJ BASIN ...... 1 E. INTRODUCTION...... 1 F. RIVER FLOWS ...... 4 G. SEDIMENT ...... 6 H. TRIBUTARY RIVERS ...... 6 II. SNOW AND GLACIERS ...... 7 A. TREND ANALYSIS FOR PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE AND SNOW COVER ...... 8 1. Temperature ...... 8 2. Rainfall ...... 9 3. Snow ...... 9 4. Glaciers and Modelling ...... 11 5. Impact on Extreme Flows ...... 14 6. Retreat of Glaciers ...... 14 7. Glacier Mass Balance ...... 16 B. GLACIER INVENTORY FOR SATLUJ ...... 16 C. GLACIER LAKES ...... 18 III. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 19 A. INTRODUCTION...... 19 B. THE PRECIS MODEL ...... 20 C. REGIONAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR INDIA USING PRECIS ...... 21 D. SCENARIOS FOR SATLUJ USING PRECIS ...... 21 1. Temperature ...... 21 2. Precipitation ...... 22 3. Precipitation intensity ...... 23 E. SNOW AND GLACIERS...... 24 F. PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION ...... 26 IV. OVERVIEW OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND ISSUES ...... 27 A. INTRODUCTION...... 27 B. HYDROPOWER ...... 28 C. IRRIGATION AND WATER SUPPLIES ...... 29 D. FORESTS AND CATCHMENTS ...... 30 E. AGRICULTURE ...... 31 F. FLOOD...... 31 G. ENVIRONMENT ...... 33 H. TRIBUTARY RIVERS ...... 33 I. INTEGRATION OF DOWNSTREAM WATER USE IN PUNJAB ...... 33 J. SUMMARY OF WATER RESOURCES ISSUES...... 34 V. WATER RESOURCES SECTORS ...... 35 A. HYDROELECTRIC POWER ...... 35 B. POWER DEVELOPMENT ...... 37 C. PLANNED HYDROPOWER PROJECTS ...... 40 1. Khab Storage Project ...... 40 D. AGRICULTURE ...... 42 1. Major Challenges for Agriculture ...... 43 E. FISHERIES ...... 44 F. IRRIGATION ...... 45 G. POTABLE WATER ...... 47 H. FORESTRY ...... 49 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

1. Compensatory Afforestation ...... 51 I. SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION ...... 51 1. Way Ahead ...... 53 J. ROADS ...... 54 VI. ENVIRONMENT ...... 54 A. SHUKLA COMMITTEE REPORT ...... 54 B. ENVIRONMENTAL CLEARANCE ...... 55 C. SUMMARY OF HYDROPOWER IMPACTS ...... 56 D. CHANGES TO SURFACE AND GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS ...... 57 1. Diversions ...... 57 2. Storage ...... 57 3. Changes to Groundwater and Springs...... 57 E. ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS ...... 58 F. SOIL EROSION ...... 60 G. MUCK GENERATION AND DISPOSAL ...... 60 1. Recommendations ...... 62 H. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS ...... 62 1. Lippa Village Kinnaur ...... 63 2. Status to Date ...... 64 3. HPPCL ...... 65 4. Conclusions ...... 66 VII. INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK ...... 66 A. INTRODUCTION...... 66 B. STATE WATER POLICY ...... 67 C. WATER SECTOR INSTITUTIONS ...... 68 D. CROSS CUTTING INSTITUTIONS ...... 69 1. Himachal Pradesh Water Management Board ...... 69 2. State Planning Board ...... 69 3. Department of Environment ...... 69 4. Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) ...... 71 E. INTEGRATION OF WATER ISSUES...... 72 F. HYDRO POWER ...... 72 1. Directorate of Energy ...... 73 2. Hydropower Agencies ...... 74 3. Central Power Agencies ...... 75 4. Forum of Hydro Power producer in Satluj Basin (HPPF)...... 75 5. Special Corporations and Boards ...... 75 6. Panchayats ...... 76 G. PLANNING AND CONTROL ...... 76 H. COMPENSATION PACKAGES ...... 78 I. REGULATORY FUNCTIONS ...... 79 1. Water Regulator ...... 79 J. MOVE TOWARDS INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ...... 79 1. Water Sector Problem Analysis ...... 80 2. Institutional Options...... 81 K. INSTITUTIONAL PROPOSAL ...... 83 VIII. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN FOR THE SATLUJ RIVER ...... 84 A. LESSONS LEARNT ...... 84 B. ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES ...... 85 C. STRATEGY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 86 D. FOCAL AREAS OF THE FRAMEWORK STRATEGY ...... 87 IX. ROADMAP FOR IMPLEMENTATION ...... 93 A. SATLUJ RIVER BASIN SUSTAINABILITY PROJECT ...... 93 B. ORGANISATION ...... 93 C. REQUIREMENTS FOR EXTERNAL SUPPORT ...... 95 D. PROJECT SCOPE...... 95 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iv Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

1. State Wide Water Sector Programmes ...... 95 2. Satluj Sub-Basin Investment and Support Programmes ...... 96 E. PROJECT SCHEDULE ...... 97

PART 3 APPENDIXES Appendix 1: Terms of Reference for the Study Appendix 2: First Stage GIS

FIGURES

FIGURE 1 SATLUJ INDIAN CATCHMENT ...... 2 FIGURE 2 CATCHMENT WITHIN HIMACHAL PRADESH ...... 2 FIGURE 3 WHOLE SATLUJ CATCHMENT ...... 3 FIGURE 4 RIVER FLOWS AT KHAB ...... 4 FIGURE 5 BHAKRA INFLOW DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN FLOW ...... 5 FIGURE 6 GLACIERS IN THE INDIAN SATLUJ ...... 7 FIGURE 7 TRENDS OF THE WESTERN DISTURBANCES ...... 9 FIGURE 8 ALTITUDE SNOW WISE COVER SATLUJ BASIN (ICIMOD) ...... 10 FIGURE 9 SNOW FALL TRENDS 1985 TO 2002 ...... 10 FIGURE 10 SNOW FALL IN SATLUJ (BBMB) ...... 11 FIGURE 11 AVERAGE RETREAT FOR SELECTED GLACIERS ...... 15 FIGURE 12 PRECIS DATA GRIDS FOR THE SATLUJ BASIN ...... 21 FIGURE 13 CHANGE IN AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ...... 22 FIGURE 14 PERCENT CHANGE IN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SATLUJ BASIN ...... 23 FIGURE 15 CHANGES IN NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH MORE THAN 100MM OF RAINFALL ...... 24 FIGURE 16 HYDROPOWER PROJECTS IN THE SATLUJ CATCHMENT ...... 40 FIGURE 17 AGRICULTURAL CROPS BY ALTITUDINAL ZONES ...... 42 FIGURE 18 FOREST COVER ...... 50 FIGURE 19 LIPPA VILLAGE ...... 65 FIGURE 20 DEST STRUCTURE ...... 70 FIGURE 21 SATLUJ SUSTAINABILITY PROJECT ...... 95 FIGURE 22 PROJECT SCHEDULE ...... 98

TABLES

TABLE 1 SNOW AND GLACIER MELT IN SELECTED RIVERS ...... 8 TABLE 2 GLACIAL RECESSION IN HIMACHAL PRADESH ...... 15 TABLE 3 SPECIFIC MASS BALANCE OF FEW HIMALAYAN GLACIERS (SHANKER AND SRIVASTAVA, 2001; DOBHAL ET AL., 2008) ...... 16 TABLE 4 GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF INDIA GLACIER SUMMARY FOR SATLUJ ...... 16 TABLE 5 COMPARISON OF GLACIER ESTIMATES ...... 17 TABLE 6 GLACIER VOLUME BY ELEVATION...... 18 TABLE 7 MAJOR GLACIER LAKES IN THE SATLUJ ...... 18 TABLE 8 INDICATIVE SNOW AND GLACIER CHANGES HIMACHAL PRADESH SATLUJ ...... 26 TABLE 9 STORAGE AT BHAKRA ...... 34 TABLE 10 SUMMARY OF WATER RESOURCES ISSUES ...... 34 TABLE 11 HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL AND STATUS ...... 37 TABLE 12 SUMMARY OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES ...... 37 TABLE 13 PLANNED SMALL HYDROPOWER SCHEMES ...... 39 TABLE 14 SUMMARY OF URBAN CENTRES ...... 48 TABLE 15 FOREST AREAS ...... 50 TABLE 16 CATCHMENT ZONES ...... 52 TABLE 17 SUMMARY OF MAIN HYDROPOWER IMPACTS ...... 56 TABLE 18 WATER SECTOR INSTITUTIONS ...... 68 TABLE 19 INSTITUTIONAL PROPOSALS ...... 83 TABLE 20 KEY AREAS AND OPPORTUNITIES ...... 85 TABLE 21 BROAD APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 87 TABLE 22 FOCAL AREA 1: EFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONS FOR INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT .. 87 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh v Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

TABLE 23: FOCAL AREA 2: WATER RESOURCES DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS ...... 88 TABLE 24: FOCAL AREA 3: RIVER AND CATCHMENT RESTORATION AND MANAGEMENT ...... 89 TABLE 25: FOCAL AREA 4 SUSTAINABLE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF HYDROPOWER ...... 90 TABLE 26: FOCAL AREA 5 SUSTAINABLE IRRIGATION AND AGRICULTURE ...... 90 TABLE 27: FOCAL AREA 6 SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLIES AND SANITATION ...... 91 TABLE 28: FOCAL AREA 7 SUPPORT FOR RURAL ENTERPRISES, DIVERSIFICATION, TRAINING AND AWARENESS ...... 92 TABLE 29 POSSIBLE AREAS FOR INVESTMENT AND SUPPORT IN THE SATLUJ BASIN ...... 96 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 1 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Part 2 Main Report

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Background

1. In June 2010, ADB prepared a „Climate Change Adaptation-Focused Water Resources Strategy for Himachal Pradesh‟. 1 The strategy presented a seven point roadmap for climate adaptation. As a follow up to this study, the Government of India (GoI) requested ADB to support a follow on study: “Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Scoping Study for the Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving capacity for Climate Change Adaptation”, which is designed to build and develop the ideas from the roadmap with specific application to the Himachal Pradesh part of the Satluj basin. The study started in August 2010; the inception report, workshop and extensive field visits and consultations were held in October 2010.

B. Study Rationale

2. The Satluj basin holds a large number of water, environment and development issues; this study is directed at identifying and assessing key issues and requirements to meet the needs of sustainability and environmentally appropriate development, as well as adaptation towards addressing the likely vulnerabilities from climate change. The rural population in Himachal Pradesh, who constitute about 90% of the state population, with 26% of the population below the poverty line, will be most vulnerable to climate impacts. The strategy identifies the need to develop an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach to water resources planning and management

C. Terms of Reference and Outputs

3. The Terms of Reference (TOR) for the study are described in Appendix 1 and form the basis for the study. This Final Report (FR) is based on the Draft Final Report of March 2011 and incorporates the comments received from the various stakeholders.

4. From the TOR, three main outputs of the study are defined as: (i) compilation of information of existing, ongoing and planned water resources developments in the Satluj basin; (ii) identify the main development, environmental and sustainability issues of development in the Satluj basin; and (iii) Preparation of a preliminary framework plan for water resources development in the Himachal Pradesh Satluj River basin, incorporating the likely effects of climate variability. The framework plan would incorporate proposals for more integrated planning including the development of IWRM principles to improve efficiencies, reduce environmental impacts and long term sustainablities the water resources. The framework plan would identify priority areas for investments, time scales and requirements for follow up studies.

D. First Stage GIS for the Satluj Basin

5. Although a number of the water sector agencies have data and information including some geographic information system (GIS) data, there is no integrated data system that can be applied to overall water resources assessment including information on the key water resources developments both existing and planned. As a part of this scoping study, a 'First Stage Integrated Water Resources GIS' for the Satluj River has been prepared, which has compiled basic information from the various water sector agencies. The time and resources for the preparation were quite restricted and it is necessary to consider this work a first stage which will require be further developed. The GIS data is described in Appendix 2 with the outputs given on the attached CD provided with this report.

E. Introduction

1 TA 6498 (REG): )Knowledge and Innovation Support for ADB‟S Water Financing Program April 2010 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 2 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 1 Satluj Indian Catchment 6. The Satluj rises in the Tibetan plateau and forms a prominent tributary of the Indus river. The Satluj is the largest of the five main river systems in Himachal Pradesh. It enters Himachal Pradesh just upstream of the confluence with the Spiti river at the Khab river. From here it flows south westerly through Kinnaur, Shimla, Solan and Bilaspur districts. The river leaves Himachal Pradesh and enters Punjab at Bhakhra where the world's highest gravity dam has been constructed. The Satluj finally drains into the Indus in Pakistan. The Indian catchment is shown in Figure 1. The catchment within Himachal Pradesh is given in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Catchment Within Himachal Pradesh 7. The total catchment area of the Satluj river up to Bhakra Dam is about 56,874km2 of which 37,153km2 (65%) lies in Tibet. The Himachal Pradesh part of the Satluj basin, which is the focus for the present study covers an area of about 22,305km2, including the whole catchment of the Spiti basin (the largest tributary of the Satluj). This basin is elongated in shape and covers outer, middle and greater Himalayan ranges. The elevation of the study basin varies from about 500m to 7000m, although only a very small area exists above 6000m. The snow line descends to an elevation of about 2000m during winter and crosses 5000m altitude by the end of the summer season. The permanent snow line in this part of the Himalayan region is observed at about 5400 m (BBMB, 1988). The whole Satluj catchment is shown in Figure 3. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 3 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 3 Whole Satluj Catchment

8. The Satluj flow is complex and is derived from a contribution of rain, snow and glaciers; the respective contribution of each component varies with time of the year. Understanding the rainfall and river hydrological systems is fundamental to effective planning and management of the river. The Indian summer monsoon (June to September) delivers up to 3 m/yr rainfall at the western Himalayan front with a steep negative gradient moving north-eastward of the orographic (mountain) barrier. This moisture gradient is inverted during the winter season (December to March) with snowfall amounts of up to 1m of snow water equivalent falling in the upper reaches. The seasonal variations in precipitation have major effects on discharge formation and therefore influence hill slope processes, sediment flux, and fluvial erosion.

9. The study area experiences a total of four distinct seasons: (i) severe cold winter during months of December to February; (ii) summer during months of April to June; (iii) monsoons during months of July to mid-September; and (iv) post monsoon/autumn during months of mid-September to November.

10. The Satluj catchment as a whole may be divided into three zones:

o Upper Zone; above 2000m, the catchment area receives rainfall due to western disturbances that pass over the north-western part of the country during the winter months. The main precipitation, about 60% is as snowfall during the winter months with up to 1m water equivalent. Snowmelt contributes 80% to 90% of the mean annual discharge in tributary catchments, while glacial melts account for 10% to 20% of their annual budget. The monsoon rainfall drops off sharply above Reckong Peo. There are however occurrences in abnormal monsoon years where violent rainstorms conquered orographic (mountain) barriers and penetrated far into otherwise arid regions in the northwest Himalaya at elevations in excess of 3000masl. While precipitation in these regions was significantly increased and triggered extensive erosional processes (i.e. debris flows) on sparsely vegetated, steep hillslopes, mean rainfall along the low to medium elevations was not significantly greater in magnitude. o Transition Zone; between 1200m to 2000m receives considerable amounts of summer rainfall (~1 m/yr) together with large amounts of snow and glacier melt. It sustains high, melt- derived discharge throughout the ablation season (May to September). o Lower Zone: below 1200m 80% of the annual precipitation occurs during May to October. There is no contribution from snow or glacier melt.

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 4 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

F. River Flows

(i) Pre monsoon period (April to June): The river sustains high, melt-derived discharge throughout the ablation season2 (May to September). In the higher-elevated snowfall zone (upstream of 2km Satluj-river elevation) snowmelt contributes 80% to 90% of the mean annual discharge in tributary catchments, while glacial melts account for 10% to 20% of their annual budget. Usually, seasonal snow accumulated on glaciers during the winter season is ablated by the end of May/June and glaciers start contributing to streamflow thereafter.

(ii) Indian Summer Monsoon: June to September, delivers up to 3 m/yr rainfall at the western Himalayan front with a steep gradient to 0.3 m/yr north-eastward of the orographic (mountain) barrier. During this period flow is augmented by monsoon rains, producing higher discharges in the river. Generally, high discharges and floods are observed in the months of July and August and these are essentially due to heavy rain in the lower part of the basin with added snow/glacier melt from the upper parts.

(iii) Post Monsoon Period: Base flows and glacial melt maintain flows during this period.

(iv) Winter Period: December to March minimum stream flow is observed during winter because no melting takes place due to low temperatures. The base flow contribution sustains the flow in the river during this period

11. The river flow at Khab3 is shown in Figure 4 which shows some drop in flows post 2000.

Figure 4 River Flows at Khab

12. River flows at Bhakra: Records exist of inflows to Bhakra reservoir from the Satluj river from 1962. The Beas Satluj Link Project (BSL) came into operation in 1977. The mean annual inflow from the Satluj River in the period April 1962 to March 2009 was 14,450 Mm3. The mean annual inflow

2 Ablation refers to the melting of snow or ice that runs off the glacier, evaporation, sublimation, calving, or erosive removal of snow by wind. Air temperature typically dominantly controls ablation; precipitation exercises secondary control. In a temperate climate during ablation season, ablation rates typically average around 2 mm/hr; 3 Flash-Flood Warning for the Upper Sutlej River Basin, Northern India; Kumar1, J.D. Bales2, R. Jubach3, P.D. Gyamba4, and M.D. Kane5 and A.C. Scott. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 5 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report from the BSL in the period April 1978 to March 2009 was 4345 Mm3. The coefficient of variation in annual inflows from the Satluj is 0.16. The variance in annual inflows is significantly lower than the variance in annual precipitation, and this will be as a result of the influence of snow and glacier melt.

13. Figure 5 below shows a plot of annual deviations from the mean of annual inflows to Bhakra from the Satluj river. It is apparent that in the last decade, annual inflows have been below average, corresponding with below average precipitation in this period. A number of statistical tests have been carried out on the annual inflow series and it was found that it is apparent that the data are random, and that there is no significant evidence of persistence or trend in the data4.

Figure 5 Bhakra Inflow Deviations from the Mean Flow

Deviations from the Mean of Annual Inflows to Bhakara Reservoir 50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -10.0 Deviation from mean (%) mean from Deviation

-20.0

-30.0

-40.0

-50.0

4 ADB TA 7417-IND: Support for the National Action Plan on Climate Change. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 6 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

G. Sediment

14. The sediment flux in the lower-elevated rainfall zone is highly variable and correlates closely with rainfall events, whereas sediment discharge in the higher-elevated snowfall zone is governed by melt events and less variable. Suspended sediment concentrations within the transition zone rise with increasing rainfall amounts. This trend is mirrored by an increase in vegetation cover, which could, along with warmer climatic conditions account for higher soil production rates and therefore increased sediment availability. The transition zone is likely to have been affected in the past by climatic variation which increases the likelihood of future natural hazards such as landslides or floods. By quantifying spatio-temporal patterns of discharge generation, fluvial erosion, and hillslope failure, it is possible to better understand climate driven erosion on short timescales with implications for water management and hazard assessment.

15. High-quality hydrologic and sediment yield data is important to aid planning for the use of water resources of the Satluj river system. Studies show that that extensive sediment control treatment will be necessary to improve the safety and efficiency of the many hydroelectric projects that are being planned for the Sutlej and its tributaries. While the monthly and annual runoff data show little variation throughout the period, sediment yield was extremely variable. About 80% of the annual flow occurs between May and September, mainly from snowmelt. Sediment yield increased exponentially with increased discharge, especially with high concentrations from June to August. The main sediment sources are gully erosion, stream-bank erosion, landslides, road construction, and glacier erosion. The sediment from the upper catchment accounts for half the annual accumulation in the Bhakra reservoir farther downstream.

H. Tributary Rivers

16. The main right bank tributaries are the Spiti, Ropa, Taiti Kashang, Mulgaon, Yula, Wanger, Throng and Rupi. Left bank tributaries include the Tirung, Gaythang, Baspa, Duling and Soldang, The tributary rivers are used for irrigation and water supply and closely linked to the wellbeing of the communities. The tributary rivers and the associated spring systems, wells and water points are very sensitive to impacts of the hydropower projects as well as climate changes impacts.

17. Spiti River: The river originates from the Kunzum range and the Tegpo and Kabzian streams are its tributaries. The river does not receive the south-west monsoons. Very unusually however monsoon rain came into the Spiti valley in 2010 causing significant damage. The local communities are very concerned of repeat occurrences of this nature. All the precipitation in the valley is normally seen as snow during November to March. The river attains peak discharge in late summers due to snow and glacier melting. After flowing through Spiti valley, the Spiti river meets Satluj at Namgia in Kinnaur district traversing a length of about 150km from the North-West, beyond that it flows in south- west direction in the Himachal Pradesh. Huge mountains rise to very high elevations on either sides of the Spiti river and its numerous tributaries. The mountains are barren and largely devoid of a vegetative cover. The main settlements along the Spiti river and its tributaries are Kaza, Hansi and Dhankar Gompa.

18. Baspa River: is an important tributary of the Satluj River in its upper courses. The Baspa is joined by many smaller channels draining snowmelt waters. The Baspa River cuts across the main Himalayan range, thereafter it empties itself into the river Satluj in district Kinnaur. Baspa originates from the Baspa hills joins the Satluj from the left bank near Karcham. The Satluj River leaves Kinnaur district in the West near Chauhra and enters Shimla district.

19. Nogli Khad joins Satluj just below Rampur Bushahar. The river Satluj enters Mandi district near Firnu village in the Chawasigarh and passes through the areas of Mahunm, Bagra, Batwara, Derahat and Dehar. Practically the whole of the ancient Suket state except Jaidevi and Balh circles drains into Satluj. The main tributaries of the Satluj in district Mandi are Siun, Bahlu, Kotlu, Behna, Siman, Bantrehr, Khadel and Bhagmati.

20. Soan River rises from the Southern slopes of the Shivalik range also known as So-lasinghi range in the tract to the East of the Beas gap across the Southern periphery of the Kangra valley. It joins the boundary of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. Its gradient is not very steep and the slopes of IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 7 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report the Soan catchment vary from gentle to steep. In the summer the discharge drops drastically, while during monsoon it is in spate.

II. SNOW AND GLACIERS

21. Stream flows in the Satluj are very much influenced by snow and glaciers; a review of the snow and glacier hydrology is given in this section. There are about 9,575 glaciers in the Indian territory, occupying about 38,000km2 area of the Himalayas5 (GSI, 1999). Unfortunately, there remains a lack of data and information on glaciers in India, mainly due to lack of comprehensive studies. This has resulted in poor long-term data availability regarding Himalayan glaciers as well as regarding runoff data being generated from glaciers. About 60% of the flow into Bhakra reservoir is derived from snow and glacier melt. At the confluence of the Spiti and Khab rivers nearly all of the flow is from snow and glaciers.

22. The Satluj river basin consists of around 940 glaciers with an cumulative area of about 1200km2, the estimated ice reserve is not based on surveys but empirical estimates, based on two studies using remote sensing the ice reserve appears to be around 60-95km3 (Geological Survey of India (GSI), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development(ICIMOD) and others, 2004). The Satluj glaciers have a large variation in their size, orientation and elevation all of which affect their characteristics.

23. Glaciers are very sensitive to the climatic conditions. Retreat of glaciers and its impact on water resources is one of the current issues being debated for more than two decades. There is evidence that glaciers have retreated globally during the last century. At present deglaciation is considered to be a world-wide problem including the Himalayan region. Glaciers also preserve climatic signatures, which can be used to reconstruct past climatic records. Snow cover in the Satluj is quite variable from about 20% to 65% of the catchment. The glaciers in the Indian Satluj6 are shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6 Glaciers in the Indian Satluj

5 Geological Survey of India (, GSI),, 1999 6 CSK Himachel Pradesh Agricultural University, UniverstiyPalampur IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 8 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

24. Snow and glacier melt runoff contributes substantially to the annual flows of the Himalayan rivers and its estimation is required for the planning, development and management of the water resources of this region. The Satluj has the highest percentage contribution7 from snow and glaciers as shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Snow and Glacier Melt in Selected Rivers

River Basin Catchment area Snow cover area Snow and glacier (km2) (km2) contribution in annual Max. Min. flows (%) Ganga (up to Deoprayag) 19700 9080 (40.9%) 3800 (19.3%) 29%

Chenab (up to Akhnoor) 22200 15590 (70.2%) 5400 (24.3%) 49%

Satluj Indian part (up to 22305 14498 (65.0%) 4528 (20.3%) 60% Bhakra Dam,) Beas (up to Pandoh Dam) 5278 2375 (45%) 780 (15%) 35%

A. Trend Analysis for Precipitation, Temperature and Snow cover

1. Temperature

25. The focus of the studies for trend analysis in the Himalayan region mainly had been on the precipitation and temperature using sparse data. Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin was analyzed by Fowler and Archer (2006) for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighbouring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts were found between the behaviour of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature showed significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures showed consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) was consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both Global Climate Projections (GCM) and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon.

26. Bhutiyani et al. (2007) 8 found a significant rise in air temperature in the northwest Himalayan (NWH) region by about 1.6°C in the last century, with winters warming at a faster rate. The diurnal temperature range DTR also showed a significantly increasing trend. This appears to be due to a rise in both the maximum as well as minimum temperatures, with the maximum increasing much more rapidly. The results are in contrast to the findings in the Alps and Rockies where the minimum temperatures have increased at an elevated rate. Conforming to the global trends, the study confirms episodes of strong warming and cooling in the NWH in the last century. Real warming appears to have started from late-1960s and highest rate of increase was experienced in the last two decades. The study also shows teleconnections between temperatures and an epochal behaviour of the precipitation till late-1960s. These teleconnections seem to have weakened gradually since then and rapidly in the post-1991 period, indicating the waning effect of the natural forcings in this period.

7 Thayyen, R.J., Gergan, J.T. and Dobhal, D.P. (2007). Role of glaciers and snow cover on headwater river hydrology in monsoon regime – Micro-scale study of Din Gad catchment, Garhwal Himalaya, India. Current Science (92), pp. 376-382.

8 Bhutiyani, M.R., Kale, V.S. and Pawar, N.J. (2007). Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century. Climatic Change, 85 (1-2), pp. 159-177. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 9 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

2. Rainfall

27. Basistha et al. (2009)9 investigated the changes in rainfall pattern in the Indian Himalayas focusing on Uttarakhand State during 20th century using 80-year data from 30 rain gauge stations maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Rainfall was found decreasing during the last century as a sudden shift, rather than gradual trend. The most probable year of change in annual as well as monsoon rainfall is estimated is 1964. The period 1902–1964 showed mostly an increasing trend, which reversed during 1965–1980.

3. Snow

28. Snowmelt contribution starts from March and lasts until June/July, depending upon the snowpack water equivalent accumulated in the preceding winter season and the prevailing temperatures in the summer season. As the summer season progresses, the snowmelt contribution increases continuously and exceeds the rainfall component. In this pre-monsoon season (April-June), a major part of the streamflow is generated from seasonal snow.

29. Snow in the Satluj is derived from the winter „Western Disturbances‟. The term is used in the meteorology of South Asia to describe an extratropical10 storm, usually originating in the Mediterranean,that brings sudden winter rain and snow to the north-western parts of the Indian subcontinent. This is a non-monsoonal precipitation pattern driven by the Westerlies. The moisture in these storms usually originates over the Mediterranean Sea and even as far as from over the Atlantic Ocean. An summary of the westerly disturbance shows no real trend as shown in Figure 7

Figure 7 Trends of the Western Disturbances

30. Shekhar et al. (2010) studied the snowfall patterns in the western Himalayan range and revealed a decrease in total seasonal snowfall of 280cm over the entire western Himalaya between

9 Basistha, A., Arya, D.S. and Goel, N.K. (2009). Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (4), 555–572 10 Extratropical storms are a global, rather than a localised, phenomena with moisture usually carried in the upper atmosphere (unlike tropical storms where it is carried in the lower atmosphere IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 10 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

1988/89 to 2007/08. The snowfall decreased by ~280, 80 and 440cm over the Pir Panjal, Shamshawari and Greater Himalaya ranges, respectively. The decreasing trend in total seasonal snowfall over the Karakoram range is only ~40 cm.

31. Studies by ICIMOD11 show a slight increasing trend of snow cover 2000 to 2010 as shown in Figure 8, a longer trend analysis by CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University, Palampur over a longer period shows and decreasing trend Figure 9. Data by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) shows variations in snow fall over twenty years with no significant trend as presented in Figure 10.

Figure 8 Altitude Snow Wise Cover Satluj Basin (ICIMOD)

Figure 9 Snow Fall Trends 1985 to 2002

y = -0.0827x + 5.4706 8

7

6

5

4

3 Snowfall (meters) Snowfall

2 Snowfall Linear (Snowfall) 1 1985-86 1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 Years

11 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 11 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 10 Snow Fall in Satluj (BBMB)

Snowfall in Satluj Basin 7275.7

6279 5841.5 5662.1 5799.1 5141.6 5214.6 5082.9 4970.9 5041.8 4934.6 4685 4488.4 4478.6 3917.4 3243.8

Snowfall(mm) 2454.7 2255.6 2249.6 2000

1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Year

4. Glaciers and Modelling

32. Glacier Melt takes place from May to October and contribute to their maximum in the months of July and August. In the post-monsoon season, stream flow is believed to be partly from the glaciers and some occasional rain events.

33. Daily streamflow and its components (rainfall, snow melt and baseflow) were simulated for the Indian part of the Satluj river12. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. A conceptual snowmelt model which handles both rain and snow was developed. The model is designed primarily for mountainous basins and conceptualises the basin as a number of elevation zones depending upon the topographic relief of the mountainous basin. The ability of the model to simulate snowmelt runoff and rainfall runoff separately allows an estimate if the contribution of each component to the seasonal and annual total streamflows. The snowmelt and rainfall contributions to the flow varies significantly from the season to season. For two seasons, winter and autumn, rainfall contribution exceeds the snowmelt contribution, while for spring and summer; snowmelt is higher than rainfall contribution. It was observed that most of peaks in the streamflow are generated by the rainfall, but prolonged high flows are generated by the melting of snow. The model was also applied to estimate the contribution from snow melt and rainfall into seasonal and annual flows. The analysis suggests that more than two-thirds (about 68%) of annual flows is generated from the snowmelt runoff. The seasonal distribution of streamflow indicates that about 60% of the annual flows are obtained during summer season and about 75% of this summer flow is obtained from the snowmelt (Singh and Jain, 2003). For the same study area, based on a water balance approach for a 10 years period (1986/87-95/96), an average snow and glacier melt contribution in the annual flow of Satluj river (Indian part) at Bhakra Dam was found to be about 61% (Singh and Jain, 2002)13. The modelling approach provides more accurate estimates based on the simulations of total streamflow and its components throughout the study period using modelling approach.

34. Singh and Bengtsson (2003 and 2004)14 studied the effect of warmer climate on the depletion of snow covered area for the Satluj River basin. It was found that for the study basin, acceleration in depletion of snow covered area is computed to be 20, 31 and 40 days for T+1, T+2 and T+3°C scenarios, respectively, by the end of ablation season. The impact of warmer climate on accelerating the depletion of snow covered area is found to be higher in the early and late part of ablation season as compared to the mid part of it.

12 ibid 13 Singh, P., and Jain, S. K. (2002). Snow and glacier melt in the Satluj river at Bhakra Dam in the Western Himalayan region. Hydrological Sciences Journal (47), pp.93-106 14 ibid IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 12 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

35. In another study, Singh and Bengtsson (2004) investigated the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for the Satluj River basin. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed streamflow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T+1, T+2, T+3°C) and four rainfall scenarios (P-10, P-5, P+5 and P+10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total streamflow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be a reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from the upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes to about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time.

36. Singh and Bengtsson (2005)15 studied the impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the basin. Following the projected increase in temperature in the Satluj basin, an estimate of expected changes in melt runoff under warmer temperature was made by Singh and Bengtsson (2004, 2005). This study was carried out for three temperature scenarios (T+1, T+2 and T+3°C). This study reveals that under a warmer climate changes would include:

i) Evaporation: The studies indicated that the increase in evaporation was the maximum for snow fed basins For a T+2°C scenario, the annual evaporation for the rainfed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snowfed basins it increased by about 24%. The high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff. It was found that under a warmer climate, melt was reduced from snow fed basins, but increased from glacier fed basins.

ii) Melt: From snowfed basins was found to reduce, whereas from the glacierfed basins it increased. Reduction in melt from snowfed basins under warmer climate is possible due to the availability of a lesser amount of snow in the basin. Results indicate that the effect of warmer climate on the melt from snowfed basins was found to be opposite as compared to the glacierfed basin. Like evaporation, variations in annual melt, either decrease from the snowfed basin or increase from the glacierfed basin, varied linearly with an increase in temperature. For the considered range of temperature increase (1-3°C), the melt from the glaciated basin increased by 16% to 50%, for the snowfed basin snowmelt decreased by 11% to 23% for the same increase in temperature. Thus, the magnitude of changes caused by warmer climate was much higher in the glacier-fed basins than the snowfed basins.

iii) Combined effects: It is important to note that for a complex basin, the decrease in snow melt is counterbalanced by increased melt from the glaciers. For example, in the case of the present study, total melt reduced by about 2%, when the whole basin was taken into account. The comparison of the effect of a warmer climate on different types of basins. For a T+2°C scenario, annual melt was reduced by about 18% for the studied snowfed basin, while it increased by about 33% for the glacierfed basin. Thus, impact of a warmer climate on the melt from the snowfed and glacierfed basins was the opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of the three types of basins, snowfed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt. The decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers.

15 Singh, P., Haritashya, U.K., Kumar, N. and Singh, Y. (2006). Hydrological characteristics of the Gangotri Glacier, central Himalayas, India. Journal of Hydrology (327), pp.55– 67. Singh, P., Haritashya, U.K., Ramasastri, K.S. and Kumar, N. (2005). Diurnal variations in discharge and suspended sediment concentration, including runoff-delaying characteristics, of the Gangotri Glacier in the Garhwal Himalayas. Hydrological Processes (19), pp. 1445–1457. Singh, P., Haritashya, U.K., Ramasastri, K.S. and Kumar, N. (2005). Prevailing weather conditions during summer seasons around Gangotri Glacier. Current Science (88), pp.753-760.

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 13 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

37. A regional hydro-glaciological model was developed by Rees and Collins (2007)16 to assess the potential impacts of climatic warming on glacier-fed river flows in the Indus and Ganges basins. The model, applied at a 20km x 20km grid resolution, considers glaciers contributing runoff to a cell as a single idealized glacier that is allowed to recede through time. Using 1961–1990 climate data as input, 'baseline' flow estimates were derived for every stretch of river in either basin. A transient warming scenario of +0.06°C/year was then imposed for 100 years from an arbitrary start-date of 1991. Comparison of results at 10 sites in two representative areas suggest the impacts of such climatic warming are similar regionally, with estimates of future decadal mean flows continually increasing at 1–4% per decade, relative to baseline, at most sites considered. Flows peaked at only two of the sites several decades into the model run.

38. Singh et al. (2006)17 studied the impact of a warmer climate on glacier melt runoff of Dokriani glacier in Uttarakhand. The results of this study indicated that runoff increases linearly with increase in temperature and rainfall. For a temperature rise of 2C, the increase in summer streamflow is computed to be about 27.9%. Changes in rainfall by 10% made corresponding changes in streamflow by 3.5%. For the considered range of climatic scenarios, temperature has greater influence on changes in runoff as compared to rainfall, which possibly is because the study basin has a major contribution from snow and glacier melt runoff. Maximum increase (45%) was computed under T+3C, P+10% scenario, whereas minimum increase (10%) was under T+1C, P-10% scenario.

39. Thayyen and Gergan (2010)18 presented that the Satluj river along with all India summer monsoon anomalies (Mall et al., 2006) substantiates this unique river flow response to the glacier change in the Himalayan catchment. An analysis of the runoff data for the Satluj river from 1920–2004 shows that the highest discharge in the river was observed during 1945–1965 in association with a period of strong monsoon. As a result, many glaciers in the Himalayan region probably experienced a positive mass balance regime and showed signs of advancement or reduced rate of recession or were stationary during the 1950s to early 1970s (Mayawski et al., 1980; Vohra, 1993; Sharma and Owen,1996; Bhattacharyya et al., 2001). Since the mid-1960s, runoff in the Satluj river has decreased compared to the discharge during the mid-1940s and 1950s. Concurrently, this period is also marked by widespread glacier recession in the region (Kulkarni et al., 2007; Thayyen et al., 2007b). The advancement of glaciers reported from the trans-Himalayan region during the 1890–1910 period is also attributed to the strong monsoon during the 1885–1900 period (Mayewski and Jeschke, 1979; Mayewski et al., 1980).

40. Studies by Scherler et al19 showed quite variable retreat rates. The paucity of glacier mass balance data make it difficult to a coherent picture of the glacier change. The study showed that in the glaciers with snow from the western disturbances there was no uniform response. The effects of debris cover were found to be quite significant and should be better researched to better assess the glacier response to climate changes.

16 ibid 17 Singh, P., Haritashya, U.K., Kumar, N. and Singh, Y. (2006). Hydrological characteristics of the Gangotri Glacier, central Himalayas, India. Journal of Hydrology (327), pp.55– 67. Singh, P., Haritashya, U.K., Ramasastri, K.S. and Kumar, N. (2005). Diurnal variations in discharge and suspended sediment concentration, including runoff-delaying characteristics, of the Gangotri Glacier in the Garhwal Himalayas. Hydrological Processes (19), pp. 1445–1457; Singh, P., Haritashya, U.K., Ramasastri, K.S. and Kumar, N. (2005). Prevailing weather conditions during summer seasons around Gangotri Glacier. Current Science (88), pp.753-760; Singh, P., and Jain, S. K. (2002). Snow and glacier melt in the Satluj river at Bhakra Dam in the Western Himalayan region. Hydrological Sciences Journal (47), pp.93-106; Singh, P., Jain, S. K., Kumar, N., and Singh, U. K. (1993). Snow and glacier contribution in the Ganga river at Devprayag. CS(AR) 132, NIH, Roorkee, 1993-94; Singh, P., Jain, S. K., and Kumar, N. (1997). Estimation of snow and glacier melt runoff contribution in the Chenab River at Akhnoor. Mountain Research Development (17), pp.49-56 18 ibid 19 Scherler, Bookhagen and Strecker Spatially Variable Response of Himalayan Glaciers Affected by Debris Cover Natural Geoscience 2011 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 14 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

5. Impact on Extreme Flows

41. A major impact of climate change is likely on the frequency and magnitude of extreme flow events. In view of the recent climate change, the assumption of stationarity in the flow records cannot be justified. Design of hydrological systems is, therefore, likely to be more reliable if the impacts of potential climate change on extreme events are considered. Sharif et al. (2010) investigated trends in extreme flow measures for a set of streamflow gauging stations in Satluj River Basin in India. Linkages of extreme flow measures with large scale climate indices have also been identified. The analysis includes an exploration of the types of trends that may occur in an extreme flow record, which include changes in the timing of extreme events, and changes in the extreme event magnitudes. Several extreme flow measures including the high flow and low flow magnitudes and their dates of occurrence have been analyzed for the detection of trends using Mann-Kendall non parametric test. The results reveal more trends than would be expected to occur by chance for various measures of extreme flow characteristics. The data has been found to exhibit changes in both the magnitude and the timing of extreme flow events.

6. Retreat of Glaciers

42. Glaciers in the Himalayas have been reported to be retreating since AD 1850 (Mayewski and Jeschke, 1979). The mass balance of any glacier at any time is either positive or negative showing surplus or deficit of ice on the glacier body. It is to be noted that all glaciers in the Indian Himalayas have shown negative specific mass balance for the period they were studied.

43. Increased melt-rate has recently been found to be accelerated by deposits of dark soot particles on the snow and ice, which decreases the albedo (reflection), and hence increases the amount of incoming solar radiation that is being absorbed. The soot loading of the atmosphere (“brown haze”) also impacts the temperature profile of the atmosphere and the precipitation patterns in the region. Until recent years, black soot-induced reduction of snow albedo and its contribution to glacier retreat in the Himalayas have only received sparse attention, and there is a need for more extensive experimental field data.

44. Recently the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) reviewed the retreat of glaciers in India (Raina, 2009). Available data on various glaciers on recession of glaciers was compiled and analysed. Data that has been generated from the glacier studies, in the Himalayas, over the last 100 years or so, indicates that the glaciers in the Himalayas have been by and large shrinking and retreating continuously, barring a flip here and there, but the rate of retreat cannot be considered as alarming/ abnormal, especially in the last decade or so. In general Glaciers, in the Himalayas, although shrinking in volume and constantly showing a retreating front have not in any way exhibited, especially in recent years, an abnormal annual retreat, of the order that some glaciers in Alaska and Greenland are reported to be showing. Figure 11 shows the average retreat for glaciers which more than 20 years data is available, assessed till the end of 20th century20.

45. Kulkarni et al. (2007)21 have estimated the glacial retreat for 466 glaciers in Chenab, Parbati and Baspa basins from 1962. The investigation has shown an overall reduction in glacier area from 2077sq. km in 1962 to 1628sq. km at present, an overall deglaciation of 21%. However, overall the number of glaciers has increased due to fragmentation. Mean area of glacial extent has reduced from 1.4 to 0.32sq. km between the 1962 and 2001. In addition, the number of glaciers with higher areal extent has reduced and lower areal extent has increased during the period. Dr. Kulkarni and associates from Marine and Water Resources Group, Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad are also working on certain aspects of the effect of climatic variations on snow and glaciers in Himachal Pradesh. They have also made some glacier retreat studies in the Satluj river basin (Kulkarni, 1999) and observed that during the period 1963-1997, Janapa Glacier retreated by 696m, Shaune Garang by 923m, Jorya Garang by 425m, Naradu Garang by 550m, Bilare Bange by 90m, Karu Garang by 800m and Baspa Bamak retreated by 380m. In their studies they observed an overall 19%retreat in glaciated area and 23% in glacier volume in the last 39 years. Randhawa et al. (2001), using remote

20 MOEF Discussion PaperPaper, Himalayan Glaciers: A state of art of review of glacial studiesstidies, glacial retreat and climate change, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Govt. of India (2010) 21 Kulkarni, A.V., Bahuguna, I.M., Rathore, B.P., Singh, S.K., Randhawa, S.S., Sood, R.K., and Dhar, S. (2007). Glacial retreat in Himalaya using Indian Remote Sensing satellite data. Current Science (92), pp. 69-74. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 15 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report sensing techniques, prepared a glacier inventory for the Satluj and Beas basins in Himachal Pradesh under Himalayan Glacier Inventory program on the scale of 1:50,000. The mapping was done using satellite data. The study indicated the presence of a total of 334 glaciers and 1987 snow fields in the entire Satluj basin covering an area of 2697sq. km as a whole.

Figure 11 Average Retreat for Selected Glaciers

46. Some glaciers in the Baspa basin have been monitored for long term mass balance observation (Kulkarni et al., 2004)22 using accumulation area ratio. Mass balance was estimated during 2001 and 2002 for 19 glaciers in the basin, suggesting overall specific mass balance value of – 90cm and – 78 cm, respectively. Their investigation suggested a loss of 0.2347km3 of glacial ice in the last two years. The investigation has shown that four glaciers have no accumulation area, as these are located in lower-altitude zones. These glaciers are expected to face terminal retreat due to lack of formation of new ice. This is likely to pose serious problem of availability of water to many villages located in the Baspa basin23 who depend the glacier fed streams for irrigation and water supplies.

47. The Geological Survey of India at Lucknow as a part of their study on “Glacier recession in Himalayas” has shown that the Satluj basin has 926 glaciers covering an area of 1252km2. They have also studied three Satluj basin glaciers in detail and observed an average retreat of 4.22-6.8 m/year in all these glaciers as shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Glacial Recession in Himachal Pradesh Name of the Glacier Period of Observation No. of Years Average retreat (m/year) Gara Glacier 1973-1983 10 6.80 Nagpo Tokpo 1962-1998 36 6.40 Shaune Garang 1981-1991 9 4.22 (Source: Srivatastava, 2003)

22 ibid 23 Satluj River Basin - A preliminary investigation into the water reserve mapping, assessment of viability of micro/mega hydropower projects and suggesting alternatives Centre for Geo-informatics Research and Training CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University Palampur-176062, H.P. India

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 16 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

7. Glacier Mass Balance

48. Mass balance of any glacier at any time is either positive or negative showing surplus or deficit of ice on the glacier body. Increase in mass of ice is referred to as advancement of glacier, whereas decrease is referred to as the retreating of glaciers. Specific balance is the net balance per unit area of a glacier and expressed in mm of water equivalent. A summary of mass balance for different Himalayan glaciers is given in Table 3. It is to be noted that all glaciers in the Indian Himalayas have shown negative specific mass balance for the period they were studied.

Table 3 Specific mass balance of few Himalayan glaciers (Shanker and Srivastava, 2001; Dobhal et al., 2008) S. No. Glacier Location Period of Cumulative study specific balance (m) 1 Gara Glacier H.P. 1974-1983 -2.87 2 Gor-Garang Glacier H.P. 1977-1985 -3.3 3 Shaune-Garang Glacier H.P. 1981-1990 -2.87 4 Nehnar Glacier J&K 1978-1984 -2.37 5 Changme Khangpu J&K 1978-1987 -1.86 6 Rulung Glacier J&K 1979-1981 -0.21 7 Tipra Bamak U.K. 1981-1988 -1.34 8 Dunagiri Glacier U.K. 1984-1992 -6.26 9 Chhota Shigri Glacier U.K. 1986-1989 -0.21 10 Dokriani Glacier U.K. 1992-2000 -2.5

49. Berthier et al24 carried out an assessment between 1999 and 2004, and concluded that 915km2 of glaciers in Spiti and Lahual digitized on an ASTER image have experienced significant thinning at low elevations (8m to 10m below 4400m) and limited changes at higher elevations (slight thinning of about 2m). The overall specific mass balance is −0.7 to −0.8 m/a w.e., showing that glaciers of the Spiti/Lahaul region are experiencing rapid ice losses. The volume loss over five years is estimated at 3.9km3 of water. These losses are at least twice higher than the average mass balance between 1977 and 1999 (−0.34 m/a w.e.) for the Himalaya (Dyurgerov & Meier, 2005) indicating an increase in the pace of glacier wastage. For the Spiti part which lies in the Satluj catchment the glacier area is estimated at 650km2 with a loss over 5 years of 2.96km3 of water and with specific mass balance of - 0.7 to 0.9m/a w.e

B. Glacier Inventory for Satluj

50. Two different inventories of glaciers have been sourced; each giving different assessments of the areas and estimated volumes.

51. The GSI inventory of glaciers has coded and the data on the locations and areas derived from aerial photographs and satellite imagery. The analysis has followed guidelines by UNESCO and guidelines from the world glacier inventory, In the absence of surveyed information on the depth, estimates have been derived from information on the alpine and Himalayan glaciers in Nepal and applying these to the Satluj basin. The assessment only covers the Indian part of the Satluj with no data from PRC. The summary of the GSI inventory is given in Table 4

Table 4 Geological Survey of India Glacier Summary for Satluj

Total Ice Basin Area Glacierised Glacierised % Volume Tributary Km2 Nr Glaciers Area(km2) of basin (km3) Kurpan 344 2 0.2 0.1 0.002 Nogri 512 7 0.25 0.1 0.002 Kut 340 11 9.2 2.7 0.270 Soldan 331 3 2.74 0.8 0.080

24 Remote Sensing of Glacier Mass Balances in Himachal Pradesh Etienne Berthier et al 2006 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 17 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Sorang Wanger 665 70 99.6 15.0 4.500 Baspa 1100 89 238.7 21.7 15.300 Tirung 916 60 135.4 14.8 6.400 Taiti 885 62 77 8.7 2.850 Tagla Gyamthing 187 27 19.2 10.3 0.580 Ropa 628 48 27.31 4.3 0.710 Hojis Satluj 309 15 21.32 6.9 0.750 Spiti 7674 532 620.6 8.0 29.520 Total 13891 926 1251.52 61.0

52. CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University, Palampur25: a comprehensive inventory and GIS database of glaciers was prepared26. The inventory of glaciers has been based on topographic maps and satellite images. Since the mean glacier thickness data are not available, the study used a formula to estimate the ice reserves based on the area estimated from the equation developed for the Tianshan Mountains (Chaohai Liu and Liangfu 1986). This is a guideline as for the steep U shaped glacier valleys it is not easy to assess the thickness based on the surface area alone. The approach was H = –11.32 + 53.21F0.3, where H = mean ice thickness (m) and F = area of glacier (km2), the ice reserves were estimated by multiplying the mean thickness by the area of the glacier.

53. The study found that eighty percent of the Indian Satluj river catchment in Himachal was observed to be snow fed. The glaciers were found to be mostly distributed in the north eastern part of the basin. There were 945 glaciers inventoried altogether with a cumulative area of 1217 km2 and an indicative ice reserve of 94km3. The aspect of the glaciers in the Satluj basin was randomly distributed in all directions. The glaciers with north, northwest or northeast aspect are generally large in number and aerial extension. They constitute more than 50 per cent in number and cover 69.3 per cent of the area occupied by total glaciers in the basin. The distribution of glaciers in southern aspect covers about 37 per cent of the total number of the glaciers. Eastern and western aspects contain only 5 and 6 per cent of the total number of glaciers. As a general rule, the west aspect is much warmer than the east aspect and is expected in the number and area of glaciers, but in the Satluj basin, not much difference was observed.

54. A comparison of the two assessments is given below. The number of glacier and areas are quite consistent but with some difference in the ice volume as shown in Table 5 below.

Table 5 Comparison of Glacier Estimates Source Number Area Estimated ice Estimated Estimated of (km2) volume Km3 area for ice volume glaciers for Indian Spiti river for the Spiti Satluj (km2) river (km3) Geological Survey of India 926 1251 61 620 29.5 Palampur University 945 1217 94 524 35.0 Average 935 1234 77 572 32

55. An assessment of the volume of the glaciers by elevation is shown in Table 6. Studies27 in Spiti show that thinning of the glaciers below 4400m is significantly higher than glaciers at higher elevations.

25 Himachal Palampur University Centre for GeoInformatics working with ICIMOD 26 ibid 27 Remote Sensing of Glacier Mass Balances in Himachal Pradesh Etienne Berthier et al 2006

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 18 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Table 6 Glacier Volume by Elevation

Total Ice % of Glaciers Volume by Elevation Bands (m.asl) Reserve 3 <350 3500- 4000- 4500- 5000- (KM ) 0 4000 4500 5000 5500

Glacier Vulnerability No of

Tributory Name Glaciers

Baspa river 28.23 - 0 6 16 78 63 Beas River 10.13 - - - 8 92 31 Ganvi Khad 0.32 - 100 - - - 3 Gyamthing 1.81 - - 58 41 1 38 Jongchhutanso 0.04 - - - - 100 3 Kashang 0.65 - - 100 - - 9 Nogli Khad 0.01 100 - - - - 3 Pare Chu River 1.94 - - 55 - 45 58 Ropa 0.30 - - 37 63 - 20 Rupi/Sorang 3.53 - 68 - 32 - 38 Khad Satluj 5.98 1 13 20 66 - 39 Soldang River 0.03 - 100 - - - 3 Spiti River 21.60 - - 1 28 71 349 Taiti/Kerang 0.93 - - - 100 - 43 Khad Tidong 4.94 - - - 100 - 40 Wanger/Bhaba 8.27 - 1 1 68 30 126 Khad Grand Total 88.69 0 4 7 33 56 866

C. Glacier Lakes

56. Though no major apparent Glacier Outburst Flood (GLOF) event has ever occurred in the state however, quite a few lakes have been identified which may pose danger in the future as the due to the increase rate of glacier retreat are retreating at an alarming rate due to global warming. It is concluded that even though, the present day risk for an outburst from glacial lakes occurring in Satluj basin may be low, the risk of an outburst of glacial lake in the future could be anticipated high and it might occur in coming 15–20 years considering the present trend of climate change (Häuslar and Leber (2000). Close monitoring of these lakes is required to assess the change in their behaviour to help in undertaking an appropriate pre disaster mitigation measure and in avoiding flash flood tragedies common in the hilly region.

57. In 2004, the CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University collaborated with ICIMOD to prepare an inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes in the Himachal Pradesh Himalayas. The characteristic features used to identify potentially dangerous lakes in general are: (i) moraine-dammed glacial lakes in contact or very near to large glaciers; (ii) merging of supra-glacial lakes at the glacier tongue; (iii) new lakes of considerable size formed at glacier tongues; (iii) lakes rapidly growing in size, and (iv) rejuvenation of lakes after a past glacial lake outburst event.

58. A summary of the major lakes and most dangerous lakes in the Indian Satluj catchment as assessed by Palampur Agricultural University are shown in Table 7 below. The study assesses three lakes in the Satluj valley as potentially dangerous. There is no information on the catchment in PRC.

Table 7 Major Glacier Lakes in the Satluj Area Distance Remark Dangerous lakes S.N Lake Type (sq m) to IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 19 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Glacier Away from the glacier, situated in the main course of 1 Valley 41626 - the river Formed due to retreat of glacier and chances of Dangerous 2 Moraine dammed 27779 571 expansion Not in the main Streamflow so less chances of 3 Moraine dammed 30981 - expansion Formed due to retreat of glacier and chances of Dangerous 4 Moraine dammed 58659 139 growing the lake 5 Moraine dammed 34504 69 Close to the hanging glacier Dangerous 6 Erosion 52706 0 Mother glacier is very small 7 Moraine dammed 29427 0 Isolated from the glacier due to retreat Glacier channel is narrow and less chances of ice 8 Moraine dammed 22800 59 avalanche 9 Moraine dammed 28862 920 Away from the main channel and glacier 10 Moraine dammed 44870 152 Isolated from the glacier due to retreat 11 Valley 24081 3016 Away from the glacier 12 Erosion 28200 - Isolated from the glacier due to retreat 13 Erosion 32874 - Isolated from the glacier due to retreat 13579 - 14 Valley Artificial lake 4075

III. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

A. Introduction

59. The projected impacts of climate change in the Satluj river have been coordinated with the ADB, Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) to support the National Water Mission of the National Action Plan for climate change28. The climate change assessments have examined the entire Satluj basin including the part in Punjab.

60. Understanding the effects of future climate under the influence of global warming requires the use of climate simulation models, run with a range of possible emission scenarios and incorporating the uncertainty that exists in climate model forecasts. Scenarios are used in estimating the probable effects of one or more variables and can support the decision making processes for what are the most appropriate adaptation requirements, and are an integral part of situation analysis and long-range planning. In this regard, future climate scenarios were developed based on assumptions on the change of drivers that would influence the climate system; particularly change in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases which may vary under different pathways of the world development in the future. Long-term future climate projections provide the basis for assessment of climate change impacts on certain sectors in specific areas. The climate state obtained by incorporating an emission scenario in global and region climate models is called a climate scenario, while the difference between a future and current or recent climate state resulting from consequent changes in atmospheric composition is called a climate change scenario.

61. The climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Satluj basin are mainly concerned with the shrinkage of glaciers in the Himalayas, which are melting faster than they are being replenished with new snow, providing temporarily a higher base-flow. This increased melt-rate is controlled by elevated temperatures and deposits of dark soot particles on the snow and ice, which decreases the albedo (reflection), and hence increases the amount of incoming solar radiation that is being absorbed. The soot loading of the atmosphere (“brown haze”) also impacts the temperature profile of the atmosphere and the precipitation patterns in the region. Until recent years, black soot-induced reduction of snow albedo and its contribution to glacier retreat in the Himalayas have only received sparse attention, and there is a need for more extensive experimental (field) data.

28 ADB TA-7417 (IND): Support for the National Action Plan on Climate Change IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 20 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

62. Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) 201029 have presented a number of projections very similar to the present study. The methodologies presented by the INCCA report have used the same PRECIS and are very similar to the present study.

B. The PRECIS Model

63. Climate models are mathematical models used to simulate the behaviour of the climate system. They incorporate information regarding climate processes, current climate variability and the response of the climate to human-induced drivers. These models range from simple one dimensional models to complex three dimensional coupled models. The latter, known as Global Circulation Models (GCM), incorporate oceanic and atmospheric physics and dynamics and represent the general circulation of the planetary atmosphere and ocean. The GCMs are usually run at a very large grid (about 3°x3°) resolution (dimension of a grid cell of order several 100km), whereas the processes that are of interest for studies such as this one, such as precipitation are highly influenced by the local features namely orography and land use, and even cloud-microphysics. These local characteristics are not properly represented at the coarse scale of GCMs and contribute to prediction errors on the impact of climate change at the sub-grid scale. Therefore, these GCMs are strengthened with the incorporation of local factors and downscaled, in general with a grid resolution of about 0.5°x0.5° or less. The downscaling can be of dynamic or statistical type. These models are referred to as Regional Climate Models (RCM) and improve the quality of climatic prediction for specific local areas.

64. A RCM is a model of the atmosphere and land surface which has high horizontal resolution and consequently covers a limited area of the earth‟s surface. A RCM cannot exist without a „parent‟ GCM to provide the necessary inputs. The RCMs provide an opportunity to dynamically downscale global model simulations to superimpose the regional detail of specified region. RCM provide climate information with useful local detail including realistic extreme events and also they simulate current climate more realistically.

65. A regional climate model is a comprehensive physical high resolution (~50km) climate model covering a limited area of the globe. The model includes the atmosphere and land surface components of the climate system including representations of the key processes within the climate system (e.g. cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).

66. Advantages of regional climate models include: (i) highly resolved information; (ii) physically based character; (iii) many variables; and (iv) better representation of the mesoscale and weather extremes than in GCMs.

67. Disadvantages of regional climate models include: (i) computational expensiveness, particularly for long runs; (ii) lack of two way nesting (feedback with the forcing GCM input); (iii) dependence on usually biased inputs from the forcing GCM; (iv) errors in the GCM fields that could result in errors in the regional climate scenarios; and (v) availability of fewer scenarios.

68. PRECIS is an atmospheric and land surface model of limited area and high resolution which is locatable over any part of the globe. PRECIS is the UK‟s Met Office Hadley Centre portable regional climate model, developed to run on a Linux PC with a grid resolution of 0.44° x 0.44°. The high- resolution limited area model is driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from global coupled atmosphere-ocean (HadCM3) and global atmospheric (HadAM3) general circulation models. PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations. Dynamical flow, the atmospheric sulphur cycle, clouds and precipitation, radiative processes, the land surface and the deep soil are all described and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) are required at the limits of the model's domain. Information from every aspect may be diagnosed from within the model (Noguer et al., 1998). PRECIS has a wide application and can be applied easily to any area of the globe to generate detailed climate change predictions; which can be applied for vulnerability and adaptation studies and climate research.

29 Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment 2010 , MoEF IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 21 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

C. Regional Climate Scenarios for India Using PRECIS

69. Indian RCM PRECIS has been configured for a domain extending from about 1.5°N to 38°N and 56°E to 103°E. IPCC SRES A1B Scenario – QUMPQ14 QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) for the time slices of present (1961–1990), mid-century (2021-2050) and end-century (2071–2100) has been made available by IITM Pune.

70. Simulations from a seventeen-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Met Office Hadley Centre have been used as LBCs for 138 year simulations of the regional climate model PRECIS. The QUMP simulations comprise 17 versions of the fully coupled version of HadCM3, one with the standard parameter setting and 16 versions in which 29 of the atmosphere component parameters are simultaneously perturbed (Collins et al. 2006). Thus far three scenarios have been run with the Indian RCM PRECIS.

D. Scenarios for Satluj Using PRECIS

71. For climate change projections in the Satluj basin, output from one member of the QUMP ensemble (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) downscaled using PRECIS is available. Apart from the baseline (1961-1990) which represents the present, the following two time slices for the future are being investigated: mid-century (2021-2050) and end-century (2071–2100); all three time slices use the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenario A1B. The PRECIS grids for the Satluj are shown in Figure 12.

Figure 12 PRECIS Data Grids for the Satluj Basin 72. In the next couple of years, new, more sophisticated climate model outputs will become available in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) that will be part of the IPCC‟s AR5, it is likely that the new models will give an improved monsoon description.

73. Limitations of PRECIS in the Upper Satluj; The PRECIS is related to an analysis of the summer monsoon and not snow. Winter snow on the upper region is related to western disturbances and not with the monsoon. The study has found that precipitation produced by PRECIS in the upper Satluj was not satisfactory and in some parts PRECIS annual precipitation was two and three times higher than observed, and even with bias adjustment was found not to be satisfactory. It is felt that improved model resolution might help, but the GCM boundary conditions and the lack of accuracy on how they represent processes such as the Westerlies are key issues.

1. Temperature

74. The projected maximum and minimum temperature increases for the Satluj basin are shown in Figure 13 below show the change in temperature distribution across the Satluj basin, for maximum and minimum temperature respectively. The whole basin is projected to warm significantly, with minimum temperatures rising most pronouncedly in some of the high altitude regions in the north and east of the basin. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 22 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 13 Change in Average Maximum Temperature

2. Precipitation

75. The river basin receives most of its rain during the Monsoon season, which starts in June/July. The present average annual rainfall ranges between 960mm sub-mountain region and 460mm in the plains. The whole basin is projected to receive increased precipitation with most of the increase located in the western parts of the basin, which may receive up to 50% more precipitation by the end of the century compared to the current climatological baseline. The least increase will be experienced in the very eastern upstream parts (located mainly in PRC). The estimated changes in precipitation are shown in Figure 14 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 23 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 14 Percent Change in Average Precipitation Across Satluj Basin

3. Precipitation intensity

76. Another important factor of rainfall is its intensity – very heavy rainfall events can lead to increased erosion and flooding. The number of days with heavy rain has been analysed in the downscaled QUMP run (it is important to note that heavy precipitation events are often underrepresented by climate models (both GCMs and RCMs). Results are shown in Figure 15. Both at the 100mm/day and 150mm/day level, small increases are projected to occur in the central region of the basin.

77. The seasons are projected to be warmer by around 2°C towards 2030s. The variability of seasonal mean temperature may be more in winter months. There is a general trend of increase in precipitation for all the case studies. The indications from the PRECIS A1B scenario are that by mid century, monsoon precipitation could increase by 15%-20% in the lower parts of the Himachal Pradesh basin-mainly Bilaspur District and the lower part of Shimla Districts. An impact of increased precipitation could be increased flood frequency and magnitude. The average number of days increase, particularly in the foothills of the Himalayas and this could result in increased flood activity both in the Satluj and on the smaller tributary rivers. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 24 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 15 Changes in number of days per year with more than 100mm of rainfall

E. Snow and Glaciers

78. There is very little observation data on which to base the assessment of the glaciers. It is thought that about 60% of the annual runoff in the upper Satluj originates from snow and glacier melt. The proportion attributable to glacier melt is difficult to assess, but some estimates are that glacier melt may account for about 70% of the combined snow and glacial melt.

79. Both snow and glaciers will be affected by changes in temperatures, evaporation and precipitation. The snowfall occurs almost entirely in the winter months as a result of the Western disturbances in the higher parts. The summer monsoon, due to blockage by the high mid-Himalaya range very rarely enters into the north part of the catchment. During 2010 the summer monsoon very unusually entered these high altitude parts with major impacts on snow and glacier melts. There is limited information on the climate change effects on the winter westerly disturbances which originate in the Mediterranean, and are well outside the India grid. The changes that occur in the basin above Bhakra are complex, involving a mix of changes as summarised below.

80. Precipitation: The summer monsoon rainfall impacts on the lower parts of the Satluj in Himachal Pradesh up to the middle of Kinnaur District, these are predicted by PRECIS. The snow fall is almost entirely from the winter “Westerly Disturbance”.

81. Snow: the summer monsoon contributes insignificantly to snow, so changes in precipitation will not affect the overall amount of snow. Increased evaporation will however reduce the volume of snow; increased temperatures will also result in earlier snow melt. Singh and Bengtsson (2003) studied the effect of warmer climate on the rate of depletion of snow covered areas for the Satluj River basin. It was found that for the study basin, acceleration in depletion of snow covered area is computed to be 20, 31 and 40 days for T+1, T+2 and T+3°C scenarios, respectively, by the end of ablation season. The impact of warmer climate on accelerating the depletion of snow covered area is IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 25 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report found to be higher in the early and late part of ablation season as compared to the mid part. For a T+2°C scenario, the annual evaporation for the rainfed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snowfed basins it increased by about 24%. The high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff from snow. It was found that under a warmer climate overall melt was reduced from snowfed basins, but increased from glacier-fed basins.

82. Glacial melt estimates are supported by quite limited information, with no information for the Tibet part. Estimates30 by two different research organisations show the total glacier volume based on remote sensing, GIS and simple formula to estimate ice volumes. The studies indicate there are about 930 glaciers with a total surface area of 1200km2 and an indicative ice volume of between about 61- 94km3(about 45-70Km3 water equivalent). The area and volume of glaciers in Spiti tributary are estimated to be about 524km2 and 35km3 ice. In Kinnaur31 the estimated area is 571km2 with and ice volume of around 50km3 ice. There is no information on the glaciers in Tibet but it is considered to be relatively small compared to the Himachal Pradesh part.

83. Studies in Lahaul and Spiti by Berthier et al32 indicate that for the Spiti area there are 650km2 of glaciers with an annual thinning of between 8-10m per year for glaciers below 4000m and about 2m above 4000m. The estimated loss per year for all the glaciers in Spiti is estimated at 0.6km3 per year water equivalent with a specific mass balance of minus 0.7 to 0.9 metres per annum water equivalent).

84. The volume of glaciers is based on simple empirical estimates derived from the surface area; there is no survey data. The estimated ice volumes for the whole Satluj basin are around 60-90 Km3 ice and for the Spiti river about 30-35km3 of ice. Annual glacier volume loss estimates for Spiti have estimated by Berthier to be 0.6 Km3 water equivalent or 0.8km3 of ice. This effectively is an annual loss of about 2.5% based on the estimated volume of ice in Spiti of 32km3 ice (24km3 water equivalent33).

85. It is estimated by Singh et. al., (2006) that a T+ 20C could increase the melt rate by 28% with a maximum increase of 45% increase with a T+3C, P+10% scenario; on this assumption melt rates could increase to about 3.6% per year for the Spiti glaciers. This would represent a glacier loss of about 50% over 30 years based on 2.5% loss rate and 66% loss based on the higher 3.6% loss rate.

86. Melt-rate is controlled by elevated temperatures; but also deposits of dark soot particles on the snow and ice are now also considered to be increasing the melt rate, the soot decreases the albedo, (the diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface) and hence increases the amount of incoming solar radiation that is being absorbed. The soot loading of the atmosphere (“brown haze”) also impacts the temperature profile of the atmosphere and the precipitation patterns in the region. Until recent years, black soot-induced reduction of snow albedo and its contribution to glacier retreat in the Himalayas have only received sparse attention, and there is a need for more extensive experimental (field) data. There remains significant uncertainty over the present glacial storage in the basin, and how melt rates and retreat may change over time. Melt rate is also considered to be affected by the amount of debris cover in the glacier34.

87. Glacier and Snow. For a T+2°C scenario, annual melt was reduced by about 18% for the studied snowfed basin, while it increased by about 33% for the glacierfed basin. Thus, impact of warmer climate on the melt from the snowfed and glacierfed basins was opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of three types of basins, snowfed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt. The decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers. However, on a long-term basis, when the areal extent of glaciers will decrease due to higher melt rate, the overall water availability from the basins will be reduced.

30 CSK Himachal Pradesh Agriculture University Centre for Geo-informatics Palampur and the Geological Survey of India 2009 31 9km3 the location could not be determined 32 Remote Sensing of the Glacier Mass Balances in Himachal Pradesh Berthier et al 33 Glacier densities are around 600 to 900kg/m3, taking the average =750kg/m3 34 Scherler et al IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 26 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

88. Analysis of inflows to Bhakra show presently no significant trend of increasing or decreasing flow which tends to confirm the balancing of reduced and increased melts from the lower and higher parts of the catchment. Based on a simple assessment of the various research an indicative summary of the broad implications of hydrological changes on the various water sources is summarised in Table 8.

Table 8 Indicative Snow and Glacier Changes Himachal Pradesh Satluj Short term Decadal Medium 10 to 30 years Long beyond 30 years Lower Level Catchments Reduced snowmelt due to Snow and glacier Snow and glacier evaporation. contributions will disappear in contributions will severely Earlier depletion of snow some catchments. reduce in most catchments Lower level glaciers in decline. Increased summer monsoon Increased summer monsoon rain. rain Higher Level Catchments Reduced snowmelt due to Increasingly reduced and Severely reduced and earlier evaporation. Earlier depletion earlier snowmelt snow melts. of snow. Increased glacier melt from Melts will be in serious Increased glacier melt from medium and high glaciers. - decline from many medium medium and high glaciers. melt rate could increase altitude glaciers. potentially by up to 45%. Higher altitude more robust Some medium altitude glaciers likely to provide glaciers in already in decline. continued melt for a significant time period. Combined Basin Scale No significant trend is Loss of melt from snow and Overall gradual decline in presently observed and this glaciers at lower levels will be glaciers and snow melts will Effects on inflows to Bhakra will likely continue for the compensated from increased reduce the inflows to Bhakra reservoir next decade. melt from higher catchments. reservoir.

Insufficient data to confirm Increased rain in the lower the trend at this stage. catchments.

Increased precipitation in lower catchment likely to contribute to increased runoff. .

F. Planning for Adaptation

89. There is still uncertainty about the rate and magnitude of climate change impacts across the globe; making decision making challenging. Translating global climate projections into a scale appropriate to decision makers remains a challenge. There remains considerable uncertainties of the models which must be borne in mind when assessing the model results.

90. Present Issues: There are many existing water issues and climate variability is already causing problems in the Himachal Pradesh Satluj. The main issues being loss of flow in some tributaries and increased temperature effects on the cropping. Climate Change will undoubtedly impact many aspects of life in the future. The issues include warming, which will increase heat-stress, increase snow and glacier melt and increasing variability of river discharges. Monsoon rainfall will likely increase slightly overall, with an increase in variability from year-to-year, changed temporal and spatial characteristics such as later onset and higher intensity of rainfall, leading to more flooding.

91. Trends: Some climatic changes are already being observed with statistical significance, the main factor being temperature rise. There are also indications of other changes which are not statistically significant. When looking at smaller regions (e.g. state level or river sub-basins) it is often difficult to detect these changes with high confidence at the moment. This is an inherent problem in the statistical procedure. It is important to realise that projections of some climatic entities are more robust than others, in the sense that many of the GCMs (global circulation models) agree on the direction of change and/or its magnitude – this includes temperature and sea level rise. Some other important meteorological variables like rainfall are less well represented – there is a global research effort underway to improve this situation and we are likely to see better agreement (both of the models‟ description with current observations and also between models) when models are evaluated within AR5 (as part of CMIP5). Additionally the model skill can vary from one region to another. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 27 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

92. Time Scales: A total of three time scales are identified:

o Short-term (decadal scale): Current climate variability will dominate, and planners need to be aware of current extremes and return periods which should be used in design of infrastructure and policy measures. o Medium-term (next 20-30 years): The climate change signal will become more pronounced and be largely independent of which emission scenario the world actually follows – the observed changes will be largely caused by our current emissions, which are closely following high-end scenarios. o Long Term (beyond 30 years): For major projects and measures that have lifetimes of 30 plus years the projections are quite sensitive to which emission scenarios are applied.

93. It has already been observed that many of the projections are conservative and that observed changes may well exceed projections. At present the window of opportunity to keep global average temperature rise below 20C are diminishing and scientific thinking suggests that overshoots will be increasingly difficult to reverse.

94. Confidence Levels of Present Models: The current (i.e. CMIP3, used in IPCC AR4) generation of GCM climate models lack skill in replicating precipitation/rainfall, both in terms of quantity and quality, in quite a few regions the models also don't agree on the direction of projected changes. This is in stark contrast to the same models performing well on temperature. A recent study found that over India only about a quarter of all CMIP3 models, when run in hindcast mode, perform well during the Monsoon months, many of the other models are either underperforming on quality or quantity of precipitation amounts, with a small number of models giving both incorrect quantity and quality. Additionally, because of the coarse resolution, models do significantly underestimate rainfall intensities when compared to point-data (in some situations by 80%). Efforts are currently focusing on better constraining precipitation, both globally and regionally. A very-high resolution global climate model from Japan shows encouraging sign of giving a monsoonal rainfall pattern quite similar to observed totals. In future, models will explicitly handle convective rainfall, e.g. the trialling a 1.5km resolution (gridcell dimension) RCM over a a limited area of the UK is presently being implemented. Another approach is to give probabilistic projections by utilising ensembles of climate models (e.g. QUMP).

95. Likely Improvements: As soon as analysis of CMIP5 models is underway, it will become clear whether the new generation of climate models is able to model precipitation more accurately. Processes that are involved in formation of rainfall are being better understood and will lead to improved skills. Members of the modelling community are cautiously optimistic that some good progress will be made in the next few years.

IV. OVERVIEW OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND ISSUES

A. Introduction

96. This section provides an overview of water resources development and the interaction between the different sectors. There are major issues surrounding the planning and management of the Satluj river basin. Key points include:

(i) Regional changes in climate are already affecting many of the physical and biological systems in the mountains. Analysis of temperature trends in the Himalayas and adjoining vicinities shows that temperature increases are greater in the upland than the lowland areas. Climate change impacts on water resources in Himachal Pradesh will likely include: increased frequency of heavy precipitation and extreme rainfall intensities, increased variability in rainfall patterns, increased likelihood of water shortages/drought, reduced levels of precipitation, loss of glacier volumes, earlier snow melt, and increased temperature. These climate trends will have serious impacts on the water resources in the state as a whole. (ii) Hydropower is providing major economic and social benefits to Himachal Pradesh; the total hydropower potential of the state is estimated at 20,500MW of which about 9,500MW is in the Satluj basin. Hydropower development is based on the 2006 hydropower policy of Himachal Pradesh, which is based on a largely commercial approach. There is now significant concern on the social and environmental impacts of the hydropower developments and the state is now IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 28 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

facing major dilemmas to balance the development of hydropower with increasing pressures to maintain a sustainable environment, which safeguards local communities. In addition, high level of sediment is a major problem for the hydropower production in the Satluj river resulting in system closures and major maintenance costs. (iii) The water from the Satluj river and tributaries is only minimally used for irrigation and water supply in Himachal Pradesh, in Punjab almost all the river resources are used for irrigation and water supply. In Himachal Pradesh most of the water systems have low levels of efficiency and limited service delivery. Climate change will likely have major impacts on rainfed agriculture and maximizing the effectiveness of existing irrigation has been identified as a key response to reducing the vulnerability to climate changes. Climate change effects will also increase the risk of water shortages. Most of the irrigation and water supplies are from tributary rivers and will become increasingly vulnerable to water shortages from changes, loss of snow and reduced glacier melt as a result of climate impacts. (iv) Higher rainfall intensities and extreme rainfall events will increase soil erosion and also disaster risks of flash flooding, landslides and glacier lake outburst floods. Increased silt loads will affect existing hydropower projects. Climate impacts on water resources as well as development strategies in Himachal Pradesh will have impact on Punjab and it is important to reassess and update the interstate water management in this context.

B. Hydropower

97. Major hydropower development has been implemented in the basin; to date 63% of the estimated potential is in operation or under construction. The projects not yet developed, lie in the high altitude zone and are almost entirely dependent on snow/glacier melt; with potentially very complex hydrological impacts from climate change as well as environment and social issues. The main remaining projects are the Khab storage reservoir as well as run of the river projects in the Spiti river. Planning of such high altitude Hydro Electric Projects (HEPs) must be supported by a high level of understanding of the snow and glacier issues and potential impacts from climate change. The viabilities of some of the HEPs schemes will be affected by these changes.

98. Impacts from the HEPs have been quite significant however lessons have been learnt and the newer schemes have tackled more effectively some of the social and environmental issues. There are indications that efforts to work with the communities have improved. However there remains a significant communication gap. The remaining schemes need very special planning. There are now some resistance35 against the development of high altitude hydro schemes and the need to keep parts of the catchment undeveloped. Tributary rivers which cater to a large population for their water and irrigation needs are especially sensitive.

99. Environmental mitigation measures including water supply, irrigation and catchment area treatment (CAT) are being funded by the hydro producers, with funds passed to government for implementation; however significant amounts of the mitigation work have yet to be implemented; government lacks the resources to effectively implement the scale of mitigation necessary. There is potential and some interest for the HEPs to become more directly involved in implementing the CAT and other mitigation works.

100. Muck dumping is a major issue with much of the `muck‟ ending in the river. There is inadequate design to ensure sustainability of many of the retention structures. Many structures are in the main or tributary rivers and liable to damage by flood flows. There is scope to better plan and monitor muck dumping including the existing, ongoing and future schemes.

101. Loss of spring flows from tunnels/blasting is quite widely reported and is a major area of concern by the communities. The extent of loss is difficult to ascertain and to a large part depends on the local geology. Many of the tunnels require extensive dewatering which provides some evidence of the problem. Final sealing of tunnels on completion of the schemes may over time remediate the situation. The issue is made more complex due to the spring loss from climate warming and reduced glacier and snow melt. In the lower level catchments there is now evidence that this is occurring. Without proper mapping and monitoring it is difficult to define the causes of spring loss.

35 These include the Shukla Committee report to the High Court of Himachal Pradesh 2010. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 29 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

102. De-silting and flushing of silt remain a major issue which affects the long term sustainablities of projects. There are issues of decommissioning hydro projects if silt loads become too high or once sedimentation reservoirs become full; there is presently no planning for decommissioning. There is some likely hood of decommissioned hydropower infrastructure being left as a legacy in the future.

103. The compensation money being paid by the HEPs for the loss of land, forest, fisheries and natural water has been quite significant; there is however no comprehensive monitoring of the compensation payments and how the money is used. Improved coordination and controls of compensation funding is thus essential. Different departments do not know how the other departments are utilizing the funds. There is a need for people‟s participation in the planning and the execution of the schemes paid through the compensation money. Compensation funds are being used for wellbeing of the communities and safeguarding of the environment. There is no clarity on how the quantum of compensation is determined and considerable bargaining that takes place. Rational methods to determine the appropriate level of compensation is important from the perspective of equity, sustainability and profitability of new investments

104. There is a need to address the grievances of the “indirectly affected people” in Satluj basin (the numbers are increasing steadily). These are people who neither come under the project affected area nor are being compensated for loss of any kind. But in reality are suffering because of general degradation in the environment and society e.g. loss or reduction in water sources, muck dumping in the forest area or in water sources, diversion of water, loss of fisheries, influx of outsiders, gradual change in culture, etc. At least two generations of people are being affected.

105. In the Satluj basin excluding the small and micro hydro there is at present 17% of the potential hydropower production operational with 47% under construction, the rest is under investigation or planned. Although addressing the potential issues for the planned schemes is a priority, there is also a need to review and address issues also for completed and schemes under construction.

106. The rate of development of hydropower is slowing partly due to social and environmental issues. A number of projects in the state have recently been blocked on environmental grounds.

C. Irrigation and Water Supplies

107. Loss of spring flows due to climate change and tunnelling is and will continue to affect traditional water sources for irrigation and water supply. Spring loss is a mix of loss of snow and glacier contribution as well as some parallel loss due to tunnels and blasting in certain locations. The HEPs pay funds to the Government to develop alternative supplies but these may not always be as reliable as the traditional sources especially where gravity schemes are replaced by lift schemes. Even if alternative schemes are provided for and are executed, people can suffer the disruption of water supply for a number of years. The issues are quite complex and all efforts are needed for the conservation of sources especially to secure high elevation water sources for long term community benefit. Great care is required to ensure potentially valuable water sources are not diverted for hydropower or irrigation.

108. The more robust tributary rivers and springs must be preserved to provide long term sustainable water sources for irrigation and water supply as minor sources gradually dry due to reduced snow glacier melt. It is important that these key robust high altitude water sources are maintained and not developed for other uses. Department of Irrigation and Public Health (DIPH), provides „no objection‟ certificates to planned hydropower projects, there are however reports of dispute; there are also strong traditional water rights issues at play. To ensure the long term availability of high level perennial water sources are not compromised it is important DIPH maintains good information on tributary and spring flows, preparing estimates of present and future demands. These should include mapping of sources, monitoring and analysis of flow patterns and making estimates of potential loss of yield from climate change. DIPH presently has no comprehensive inventory of schemes showing the location. In the Satluj valley the elevation of the water source is extremely valuable; the costs of pumping up water indicate this value. Although the hydro projects on the tributaries are not directly consuming water in the tributaries they move water at a high altitude, which has potential value to provide water for irrigation or water supply by gravity to lower levels which is not viable for irrigation or water supply except with pumping. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 30 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

109. The very high sediment in the main Satluj river does not make this a feasible alternative water source. The Kol Dam, presently under construction, includes a settling reservoir which will provide an important water source with reduced silt. The Khab reservoir presently under consideration might also be a potential water source for irrigation and water supplies.

110. Many irrigation schemes are operating at low outputs and limited take up by the farmers. The high costs of irrigation especially lift schemes are only sustainable if major efforts are made to improve the farmer participation and adoption of higher value cropping systems. It is recommended that priority is made to operationalise existing schemes rather than initiating new schemes. Lack of appropriate water sources at higher elevations, together with drying or disruption of traditional water sources is forcing a move towards lift schemes (both water supply and irrigation) sustainability and levels of service delivery of these often very high head lift schemes is an issue. Wherever possible gravity schemes from springs and minor tributaries should be preserved by applying measures to protect spring sources (planting in the catchments, increasing storage and improved water applications drip, rainwater harvesting and application of precision agriculture (polyhouses), rather than high head and high investment pump schemes with major O&M problems. There is an interest in water harvesting; the very steep topography however limits the scope. Investigation is required into development of low cost storage systems including ferro-cement, polytanks or plastic tanks that could be used for rainwater collection, or to support storage from springs.

111. There are issues of traditional water rights throughout the Satluj basin. Communities and Panchayats typically do not allow any redirection of their water to other communities, forcing the DIPH to source other often less viable alternative water sources. New approaches need to be developed including combined irrigation and water supply schemes, reuse of waste water and rainwater tanks to support micro irrigation in kitchen gardens. All the water schemes are Government operated and funded; increased level of empowerment, handover of responsibilities and cost sharing of the O&M costs must be long term targets. Many parts face water shortages during the dry season especially drinking water schemes.

112. The sourcing of alternative and sustainable water sources is not easy. Future strategy should be targeted to protect sustainable water sources. The storage reservoirs associated with some of the HEPs offer sources of sustainable drinking water; such as the Kol reservoir which will provide drinking water to adjoining rural areas as well as a potential water supply for Shimla town, rainwater harvesting, constructing check dams, subsurface water storage and restoration of traditional water sources. It was observed that in general the villagers are reluctant to take on any responsibility of maintenance and management of irrigation or water supply schemes. In fact, the expectation of the communities is for government to take on even greater responsibilities for operation and management.

D. Forests and Catchments

113. The hill slopes especially in the upper areas of the Satluj are very unstable. Land slips, mud slides and from cloudbursts and ingress of rain into areas with normally no rainfall are major issues. Potentials for disaster, social and economic damage are all prevalent and are likely to become higher risk with climate change. More extreme rainfall events and potentially increased rainfall occurrences in desert zones in the upper Satluj are of concern and pose a real risk to the communities. The tributaries and nallah36 are especially vulnerable to flash flooding which can involve very intense and dangerous flows of water, mud and stone.

114. Many ongoing soil and water conservation works are not sustainable-harsh low rainfall conditions limit options for biological protection. Gabions, rock check dams typically have very short life spans-new ideas and sustainable options need to be developed. The scale and complexity of the catchments requires a mix of specialist skills and new technologies including forestry, engineering and soil water conservation i.e. a combination of hard and soft technologies. Many small catchment works are supported by Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA.). The performance of these could be improved by better coordination with the sector programmes. Outputs are quite low, improvement in efficiencies could be achieved by some more use of mechanical

36 Local name for a small river or tributary.. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 31 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report equipment in coordination with manual labour; mechanical equipment could be used for some of the hard rock excavation and breaking work less suitable for manual labour.

115. There can be a mix of commercial and traditional forest along with horticulture integration for greater ownership of the communities. Engineering solutions are expensive; afforestation is not possible in many areas. The new forestry management notification however opens the way for new approaches to catchment management including a move to multifunctional management including modalities to pay for ecosystem services.

E. Agriculture

116. Agricultural issues are complex; although some farmers are making good returns from apples and vegetables, in other areas labour shortages and increased costs and access to off-farm employment opportunities are reducing the interest to pursue agriculture. Agriculture is becoming less favoured especially by the younger generation; there are issues of labour shortages as migrant labour becomes more expensive and less available. There are complaints from farmers of loss of plant yield due to dust from the construction works.

117. The population in the basin, despite a gradual diversification away from agriculture remain very much an agricultural community with a strong reliance on agriculture. Climate change will likely result in increased risk in agriculture and the Government needs to support appropriate methods for sustainability. The Government is promoting the application of precision agriculture to promote production through highly targeted inputs-seed, water fertiliser etc. Agriculture is very dependent on irrigation and there is a need to develop appropriate highly efficient irrigation systems. The Department of Forests is now promoting the development of forests on private and community land; farmers would earn income through carbon sequestration funding. This can provide a steady income source without the need for major investments and management.

118. The projected increase in temperatures will have significant effect on agriculture. Projected temperature increases are higher for the Satluj valley than other parts. The apple crops are identified as being especially sensitive with apple production gradually moving to higher altitudes. The increased temperatures will force a continuation of this trend. Support for sustainable agriculture and parallel opportunities for off farm employment income is an important component of the adaptation requirements. Tourism in the Satluj valley is quite limited compared with the Beas valley; there would appear to be good opportunities to develop tourism as one area to reduce the dependence on agriculture. The recently approved ADB loan to support infrastructure for tourism may be able to support some tourism related investments in the Satluj valley37.

F. Flood

119. Due to diverse topography, flooding is largely isolated and tends to be flash type flooding of high intensity and short duration. Major floods have affected the entire Satluj basin in 1997, 2000, 2005 and 2010. The floods are extremely powerful and frequently carry significant volumes of mud, stone and rock. The floods have historically led to damage to the river banks and the catchments. Major cloudbursts are frequent and unprecedented cloudburst intensities and can cause extensive damage. The river Satluj was blocked near Wangtoo when a 5 km × 2 km lake was formed in a matter of hours. The peak discharge at Rampur during this flash flood was 2,577 cumecs. In this flood around 223 lives were lost. The flash flood of August, 2000, the probability of which was one in 61,000 years, left a trail of destruction in Shimla and Kinnaur districts and killed more than 150 persons and washed away 14 bridges; the water level rose suddenly from 12 to 20 metres, damaging a 320km stretch of the National Highway and the 1500 MW Nathpa Jhakri Hydro Electric Project (NJHEP). In 2005, there was a sudden breach in the artificial lake on river Parechu, in Tibet (China), which led to an unprecedented rise in the water level of river Satluj and caused flash floods in five districts of Himachal Pradesh. Parechu is 3500 metre long 800 metre wide and 15 meter deep lake in Tibet close to the Indian border which was formed behind a landslide blocking the Parechu river, a tributary of the Satluj river that flows into India from Tibet. The flash floods, however, caused extensive damage to roads, bridges, agricultural crops, Government and private properties and other infrastructure. Also,

37 ADB Loan 2676-IND: Infrastructure Development Investment Program for Tourism IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 32 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report three hydro-electric power projects in the State, Naptha Jakhri, Chamera II and Baspa had to be temporarily shut down due to heavy siltation caused by the flash floods. The discharge recorded was about 3000 cumecs. It was almost half the maximum discharge of 6,500 cumecs recorded during the August 2000 flood.

120. Communities located along the tributary rivers are reported as being especially vulnerable. In some parts of the rivers especially the tributaries there is significant encroachment by housing, creating a high risk to damage property and life from floods. Some of the muck dumping and hydropower work areas also encroach on the tributary and main river with inherent risk to washout and erosion many of the retention structures are under designed and showing signs of collapse. Flash flooding can also cause landslips; the disastrous flood in August 2010, in Leh capital of Ladakh where about 200 people died, rendered homeless thousands and is an example of the risks of heavy rainfall in the desert areas. The low or no rainfall zone of Kinnaur and Spiti are especially vulnerable to incidences of flash floods and land slips and mud flows.

121. A flood routing of a 1500m3/sec flood along the upper Satluj was carried out as part of the cumulative impact study. In the upper parts above Jhakri no habitation was found to be vulnerable; below Jhakri however major habitations including Rampur, Nogli and Duttnagare were found to be vulnerable to flooding. Impacts from flash floods including mud and debris are high on the tributary rivers.

122. The Nathpa Jhakri HEP has installed flood warning systems at Khab and Powari to safeguard the project components and for the safety of men and machinery employed at the project. Sites having telecommunication, wireless and satellite based data communication system along the course of the river Satluj from the point where it enters India to enable data transfer on a real time basis which would also help in timely warning regarding impending flood. The travel time of peak flow from gauging stations at Khab to the dam is around 6 hours and from Powari is 2 hours. Approximate time taken by an electrically operated radial gate to open fully is about 16 minutes (32 minutes when operated by petrol engines during power failure), so the amount by which the gates need to be raised can be calculated according to the magnitude of anticipated flood so as to deplete the reservoir in advance and thus safeguard against overtopping.

123. Flow monitoring of the Satluj at Rampur show the flows to be very bi-model ranging from 70- 130m3/sec in winter to 400-1500m3/sec in summer. The upper part of the Satluj (above Pooh) is not normally affected by Monsoon rains however in 2010 the monsoon entered the upper catchment and triggered major snowmelt and high flows and high levels of sediment. The estimated peak discharge at Rampur was about 5000m3/sec (more than twice any peak measured at the site over 28 years in 1972 to 2000). Sediment concentrations can reach 43,000mg/l; the Nathpa-Jhakri project with capacity of 1,500MW has to shut down when concentration exceeds 4,000mg/l. The flash flood water warning system is designed for local officials to meet emergency response but also to protect the Nathpa-Jhakri project infrastructure.

124. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods GLOF will likely become a more serious issue. Due to the very steep terrain in Himachal Pradesh , landslides are a major problem. Avalanches of snow are similar to landslides and can occur when the shearing stress of the snow is exceeded due to excessive snow load. Increased intensities of snow fall and variabilities of temperature all contribute to avalanche risk. Increased rainfall intensities and runoffs resulting from climate change are likely to increase the risk of floods, landslides and avalanches. Uncertainties and variations in weather patterns potentially could cause major crop losses. ICIMOD in Kathmandu working with the CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University of Palampur, Himachal Pradesh have identified three dangerous glaciers in Satluj basin. As a first step, it will be necessary to prepare zoning maps of the flood, glacier flood and landslide avalanche and drought prone areas.

125. Based on the National Disaster Management Act 2005, the state has established a Disaster Management Authority at the StateS level as well as the State Executive Committee. Similar Authorities would also be set up at the District-Level. The State and District Disaster Management (DDM) plans have been prepared consisting of large and medium term mitigation measures as well as short term emergency responses. For water related disasters a multi-disciplinary approach involving a the key water sector agencies is needed and there are requirements to address the likely additional measures to provide additional protection under climate change. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 33 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

126. Disaster management is under a number of different departments. DIPH is responsible for flood and river bank protection works. Further study is required to develop integrated strategies for flood and river protection as well as the other potential areas for disaster. The strategies must incorporate the best available information on extreme meteorological effects of climate change.

127. The Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBBM) is presently working on a flood warning system for the Bhakra dam. The system will be applied to improve the efficiency of the reservoir operation to meet flood flows. It is understood that this system designed for the Bhakra dam will also be applied to meet the needs of communities and hydro producers along the river. Monitoring and assessment of flows and sediment are the main parameters. There is presently no warning system linked into the catchment in PRC; an important and critical area that is required to complement the monitoring proposed for the Indian part of the river.

G. Environment

128. Environmental impact studies are carried out for all sites, but in isolation. They have simply become a „demand and supply‟ phenomenon. A cumulative Environment Impact assessment (EIA) was carried out for the Rampur projects which provided a good overview of the river system.

129. Once a project takes off, environmental regulation is left to the discretion and sensitivity of project authorities and awareness and vigil of the local population. All new projects include the need to maintain 15% environmental flow as a part of the environmental safeguards. Monitoring and enforcement of environmental flows however is a recurring issue.

130. There are no studies to assess whether the fragile topography and environment of the upper Satluj can sustain so many dams and projects. There are concerns that the receding snow line and glaciers may upset the viability of projects in the coming years. Over and above the impacts of the hydro projects there are impacts of power evacuation (transmission lines, industry, road development and real estate.

131. There are a lot of social and environmental discussions revolved around the development of hydropower especially given that high altitude areas are extremely fragile. Discussions with stakeholder indicate that there is interest to set some limits on the development of the HEPs in the Satluj, with some parts of the basin to be left undeveloped. The 2010 Shukla Committee report recommends that high altitude hydropower should not be taken up, and under the Environmental Protection Act these areas should be declared `eco-fragile‟. The Spiti river the major tributary of the Satluj is an area of outstanding naturally beauty; it is presently undeveloped and less suitable for hydropower due geological instabilities, high silt loads, inaccessibility, high development costs and geological instability. Consideration should be given to maintaining the Spiti valley is preserved as a conservation zone.

132. The lower Satluj is being rapidly developed for industry and real estate. These bring good economic benefits but require managing to ensure sustainablities, maximum benefit for local communities and improving the balance between environment and development. Sustainable extraction of groundwater is an important issue. Departmental inter-linkages to be established to coordinate activities is a must.

H. Tributary Rivers

133. More emphasis should be paid to the management and planning of the basin tributaries as they are the lifeline of the state. The small hydro needs must be monitored well as they divert these small tributaries where the impacts are much more hard felt. What is important is to note that there is no compilation of projects, either basin wise or river wise. There should also be compilation on the basis of design, silt load, intake and diversion, powerhouse and capacity and in-flow, out-flow for certain fishing offences.

I. Integration of Downstream Water Use in Punjab

134. The development of water resources in Himachal Pradesh will have quite limited effect on the water in Punjab. The irrigation and water supply demands are insignificant in relation to the water IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 34 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report availabilities and the available storage at Bhakra. Most of the hydropower schemes are run of the river and do not affect the flow regimes. The Kol Dam presently under construction will have a storage of 575MCM, the proposed Khab Dam would have a storage of 95MCM. The storages of both of these dams is quite small compared to Bhakra (9867MCM); the extra storage would primarily be dead storage to reduce silt and benefits to the reduce flood flows and support dry season availability maybe limited. There is no information on the planned water resources development in PRC.

135. Sediment of more significance is the impact of sediment. The results of surveys of the Bhakra dam in 1996/7 30 years after initial filling show the loss of dead and live storage. Silt is being deposited at the top end of the long reservoir and is reducing both the dead and live storages. The Kol dam presently under construction has quite small storage primarily as „dead storage‟ to retain silt. The proposed 275m Khab dam will include 95MCM storage designed to arrest the 12MCM of silt brought down annually by the upper Satluj and Spiti rivers; the estimated life of the dam would be 28 years. It has been calculated that the Khab Dam would increase the life of the Bhakra reservoir by nine years and that of Kol Dam reservoir by 14 years. Further, two more dams are under consideration upstream on the Spiti river at Rangrik and Poh to enhance the life of the Khab reservoir. A summary of the storage volumes at Bhakra38 is presented in Table 9. The 2008 current gross storage of Bhakra reservoir at normal top operating level is 8519 Mm3. BBMB completed a reservoir survey in June 2008, from which they concluded that about 25% of reservoir live storage capacity would be lost in about 150 years. To mid-century it would be reasonable to assume a 10% loss in live storage. It would appear that loss of storage is not a significant problem.

Table 9 Storage at Bhakra

Total Dead Storage(MCM) Live Storage(MCM) storage Year Dead loss % Live loss per % (MCM) Nr years Storage(MCM) per Storage(MCM) year from year (MCM) construction 0 Original 1965 2,431 100 7,436 100 9,867 31 BBMB 1,763 22 73 6,769 22 91 8,590 1996/97 43 BBMB 2008 8519

J. Summary of Water Resources Issues

136. The influences of development activities are interwoven with social characteristics and the natural environment wherefore slight disturbances can affect the social and ecological equilibrium. This can be better understood with the help of the matrix shown in Table 10

Table 10 Summary of Water Resources Issues

Sector Development Issues Environmental Social Issues 1 Hydropower Sediment is affecting hydropower Reduced flows in the rivers production Reduced springs and tributary flow due to tunneling. Changes in hydrology due to reduced Erosion caused by roads snow and glacier contributions Muck Dumping Environmental and social issues of Loss and impact on forest ongoing schemes Construction dust and noise Technical, environmental and social Heavy road traffic issues of planning new schemes Limited participation in planning and management Uncoordinated management of compensation packages Increased resistance and objection by communities 2 Irrigation Poor performance and levels of Poor uptake by farmers to new technologies service delivery Very low farmer participation in scheme management Changes in hydrology from climate Reliability of supply affects farmer confidence to plant change will reduce water availabilities Changes in hydrology is affecting water sources from springs and tributaries Full dependency on Government, very limited community High pumping heads participation in planning and management Low water use efficiency Lack of farmer participation

38 Bhakra Beas Management Board IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 35 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

3 Potable Water Reduction and drying of water sources Impacts of tunnelling is affecting water sources due to climate change; Move to pumped multi village schemes requires effective management and adequate funding for O&M to ensure adequate service delivery and sustainability No cost recovery from beneficiaries 4 Agriculture Low efficiency in some parts Impacts from dust reported Problems of labour shortages and costs Opportunities from horticulture crops where irrigation provided Improved coordination between DIPH and Department of Agriculture (DOA) 5 Forestry Delays in implementation of CAT plans Potential to promote forestry on agricultural lands with limited Poor success rates of tree planting suitability for agriculture. Impacts of infrastructure works Low rainfall in northern part precludes planting 6 Soil and Water Major instabilities on catchments Conservation Ingress of monsoon rainfall to desert areas is a potential issue Land slips major problems for roads 7 Roads Roads inadequate to meet traffic Loss of forest loading Slope instability from roads Landslides, river/stream erosion Muck dumping Traffic congestion Frequent road closures due to landslips and snow 8 Floods and Increasing risk from cloudbursts Disaster Flash floods include high levels of mud, stone and rock Some communities vulnerable especially tributary rivers and unstable hillsides

V. WATER RESOURCES SECTORS

A. Hydroelectric Power

137. Energy policy is fast becoming one of the central concerns of the political agenda of parties and governments around the world. The need has intensified with the realization that the excessive use of fossil fuels may cause unacceptable levels of global environmental damage and possibly, irreversible climatic changes. The significance of energy in the present day society cannot be ignored, efforts are needed to produce energy in more environmental friendly and sustainable manner, but this objective is not easy to achieve.

138. Himachal Pradesh has arguably made commendable strides forward in generating hydro- power. It has also succeeded in formulating a comprehensive „Hydro power Policy‟ in 2006. This comprehensive policy primarily and objectively aims at establishing a delicate balance between the need to harness power and to safeguard the environment.

139. Himachal Pradesh has always been treated as a special category state because of its weak resource base and has always looked to the centre to meet basic needs. The capacity and capability of developmental pursuits of the state particularly in the social sector was and is severally influenced by the extent of centre‟s support. The revenues generated by the hydro-projects have the potential of lifting the state out of this economic situation. Hydropower revenues have increased dramatically since 2000 up to an estimated 1500 crore by 2015. In an economic sense, the hydro revenue accords state flexibility to frame its policies allowing channelizing the additional resource to the social sector and 39 environment.

140. The Hydro generation has not only benefitted the state economically, but politically as well, as it has also added more than 6,000MW to the National Grid and will add additional 10,000MW in the

39 Himachal Pradesh has been rated as the best state amongst the bigger state in education, health and investment by India Today for the year 2009-2010, India Today, 19 November, 2010. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 36 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report coming years. Power generation in the state is directed mainly at the peak summer demand. Such gains are intangible and unquantifiable, but add to the prestige of the state and its people. The recent remarks of the Supreme Court of India that the power sharing interests of Himachal Pradesh have not been objectively met due to its insignificance in central politics (only 4 MPs from this State reach Parliament), strengthens its position with regard to sharing of powers in centrally sponsored schemes.

141. Performance of the hydropower projects over India is reported40 as falling over the last 15 years from about 3.97 million units per MW to 2.97million units per MW in 2009/10. Less viable projects, over development, siltation and lack of maintenance are sited, Analysis over India shows 89% of projects generate at below design capacity and 50% generate below 50% design capacity. Less viable schemes are being developed and communities and the environment pay the price41. The 1500MW 6950MU/year Nathpa Jhakri during 2010 generated 6420 million units reflecting a production of 4.6MU/MW installed despite 22 days closure on account of high silt in July and August.

142. The development of hydropower has had unavoidable environmental impacts. The state has also taken some good measures for securing environmental objectives. Himachal Pradesh became the first state to insist upon the release of 15% water discharge downstream of projects, which is critical especially during the lean season. The GOHP has also made it compulsory for project authorities to secure No Objection Certificates (NOCs) - mostly evolved to safeguard environment, from various departments. Many departments, in this process, estimate environmental loss and claim compensation for them. The Department of Fisheries collects compensation for loss of fish fauna, the DIPH collects money for loss of natural water sources, and the Forest Department collects money for damage to forests. This money is purportedly spent on compensating the apparent loss. Over the years, people have also become more conscious and have formed various groups and associations to raise their concerns. Many of the actions of the government are in response to the concerns raised by the people.

143. The Government has decided not to construct four projects, namely; Gara Gosain (25MW) falling in Tirthan Valley which is kept free for the natural breeding of Trout fish, Baspa-I (210MW) to protect the Birch tree in Kinnaur, Chamba project (126MW) and Gharopa (99MW) in Kullu valley. A total of 450MW have been abandoned as they were detrimental to the environment. More recently the Renuka dam project in Sirmour is being blocked by the MOEFMOEF.

144. The GOHP has also responded well to the issues of compensation and resettlement. Over the years as compensation and rehabilitation policies came under criticism, the government has moved away from impoundment dams to reduce the impacts. In case of previous centrally funded projects, which displaced a large number of local people, the state government fought a protracted battle on the side of the people for proper compensation and rehabilitation. This aspect is unique to Himachal Pradesh and experience has taught it to look after adequately the interest of `displaced people‟. The Hydro Policy of 2006 is an example which raises this point. The policy has attempted to standardise the obligations of project authorities towards displaced people. Compensation packages and resettlement plans have significantly improved in the last few years. Increased awareness among affected people has also contributed immensely.

145. Based on the 2008 hydropower policy, a 2009 notification incorporates provisions that hydropower producers are required to provide an additional 1% (one percent) free power from the power projects for a Local Area Development Fund (LADF) aimed at providing regular stream of revenue for income generation and welfare schemes, creation of additional infrastructure and common facilities etc. on a sustained and continued basis over the life of the project. This fund would be available in the form of an annuity over the entire life of the project. This additional 1% (one percent) free power, over and above 12% free power to be provided to the state.

146. Under the notification the GOHP may also provide a matching 1% from its share of the 12% free power through plan/budgetary provisions for schemes where the LADF is not considered adequate to meet the requirement for infrastructure or schemes which benefit the project area in the cluster or across more than one panchayat as identified/recommended by District Level Standing

40 Climate Himalaya Initiative News Sheet 2011 41 Climate Himalaya Initiative January 2011 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 37 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Committee for the project to the State Power Department/Planning Department. An example is Pangi village which is planning to spend almost Rs 3 crore to upgrade their irrigation and drinking water facility for better agriculture, horticulture and drinking water.

147. Dams can sometimes give unexpected advantages as well. The emergence of wetland areas at Pong is an example of possible environmental benefits. Commercial fishing has emerged as a result it is a potential source of employment and revenue for a large number of people and the department. The wetland is supporting a large number of migrant birds and due to its important for supporting biodiversity it has emerged as a Ramsar site of international importance42. The reservoirs have some potential for eco-tourism.

148. The projects have provided better infrastructure in the project affected areas. The project authorities not only establish schools but also provide the local people with good medical facilities. For instance in Sundernagar the BBMB hospital is still considered a preferred option for medical facilities. Similarly is the Nathpa Jhakri power Corporation (NJPC) hospital in Jhakri. The Bharmour area of Chamba is now well connected with the rest of the world after better roads due to hydro projects development. The Pangi village in Kinnaur will soon boast a Helipad and a cricket playing ground due to the efforts of the Himachal Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (HPPCL).

149. Overall development of hydropower has had major impacts; the newer projects have however been more successful in addressing the impacts. There are however significant outstanding issues in relation to completed, ongoing and planned schemes and there is a need to address outstanding issues as well as to restore some of the damage already done. There is now a need to implement all the mitigating measures with precision and to draw examples from the past. The projects which are more than 20-30 years old require to be studied to assess what are the longer term impacts including; tunnelling, blasting and muck dumping on the ecology and to what extent has the ecology adapted to these changes. Major causes of concern remain with the communities, planners and environmentalists. The government needs to review and assess the current situation and make good any deficiencies for both new projects and completed projects.

B. Power Development

150. Development of hydropower in Himachal Pradesh is based on the Hydro Power Policy, 2006 to develop Himachal Pradesh as a “Hydro-Power State” of the country and to provide an affordable, reliable and quality power to consumers. The overall potential of the state is estimated at about 20,000MW of hydroelectric power. The Satluj basin has estimated potential to provide 9700MW about 48% of the total for the state, the breakdown of potentials and status for the whole state is shown in Table 11. A summary of the hydropower schemes in the Satluj valleys43 are shown in Table 12 below;

Table 11 Hydropower Potential and Status

Basin MW % Status MW % 1 SatIuj 9728 48 Operational 1,649 17 2 Beas 4293 21 Under Construction 4,571 47 3 Ravi 2181 11 Under Investigation 2,335 24 4 Chenab 3301 16 Pending Investigation 1,090 11 5 Yamuna 960 4 No information 55 1 Total 20463 100 Total 9700 100

Table 12 Summary of Hydropower Schemes Capacity Name River Agency Status MW Bhakra dam Satluj 1,200.0 BBMB Operation

42 Pong reservoir has been declared International Importance-Ramsar Site in November 2002. 43 HPPCL IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 38 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Capacity Name River Agency Status MW Kol dam Satluj 800.0 NTPC Under construction

Luhri Satluj 775.0 SJVN Under investigation

Rampur Satluj 412.0 SJVN Under construction

Nathpa Jhakri Satluj 1,500.0 SJVN Operational

Karcham Wangtoo Satluj 1,000.0 Under construction

Shongtong Satluj 450.0 JP Hydro Under construction karcham Pending Thopan powari Satluj 480.0 Advertised to IPP Investigation Pending Jangi Thopan Satluj 480.0 Advertised to IPP Investigation Khab Satluj 636.0 HPCCL Under investigation

Yangthang Khab Spiti 261.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Chango Yangthang Spiti 140.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Pending Sumti Kothang Kothans 130.0 Advertised to IPP Investigation Lare Sumita Spiti 104.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Mane Nadang Spiti 70.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Lari project Spiti 60.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Kuling Lara Spiti 40.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Bhaba SVP Bhaba 120.0 HPSEB Operational Khad Shango Bhaba Aug PH 4.5 HPSEB Under Construction Khad Homte 10.5 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Wanger 14.1 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Masrang Silti 24.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Chaba Nauti Khad 1.8 HPSEB Operational

Nogli Stage 1 Nogli 2.5 HPSEB Operational

Jongini 12.0

Ghanvi Ganvi-I 22.5 HPSEB Operational Khadd Ghanvi Ganvi-II 10.0 HPSEB Under construction Khad Nanti 10.0

Upper Nanti 12.0

Baspa-I Baspa 300.0 MPS JPI Ltd Operational

Baspa II Baspa Shelved Environment issues

Rukti Rukti Khad 1.5 HPSEB Operational

Kashang 1 Kashang 65.0 HPPCL Under construction

kashing IV (Kirang) Kashang 48.0 HPPCL Under investigation

Kashing II and III Kashang 130.0 HPPCL Under construction

Tidong 1 100.0 Allocated to IPP Under construction

Allotted to Tidong II 60.0 Under investigation HPPCL Rongtong Rongtong 2.0 HPSEB Under operation Khad Kut Kut Khad 24.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation

Sorang Satluj 100.0 Under construction

Sumej 14.0

Raura 8.0 Alocated to IPP Under investigation

Rala 9.0 Not yet studied Not yet studied

Tidong Ropa-1 60.0 Allocated to IPP Under investigation Khad Tidong Ropa-II 12.0 Not yet studied Not yet studied Khad Nesang Shep 10.0 Not yet studied Not yet studied

Bahjirari Bahajrari 5.5 Allocated to IPP Under Investigation Khad TOTAL 9731

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 39 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Table 13 Planned Small Hydropower Schemes

ESTIMATED ESTIMATED NAME OF PROJECT POTENTIAL NAME OF PROJECT POTENTIAL District Kinnaur District Shimla Cherang Hydel Project 2.00 Chapla Hydel Project 1.00 Duba Hydel Project 1.50 Dhurmu Hydel Project 1.40 Gara Hydel Project 2.50 Dogar Hydel Project 0.55 Gekod Lungpa Hydel Project 0.80 Jakhi Hydel Project 1.50 Ginam Hydel Project 0.90 Kashta Hydel Project 0.60 Gor Hydel Project 1.50 Khagna Hydel Project 0.50 Hurba Hydel Project 2.30 Khanali Hydel Project 0.60 Janapa Hydel Project 3.00 Kotar Hydel Project 1.25 Kanam Hydel Project 0.70 Kunda Hydel Project 0.30 Kandlu Hydel Project 0.25 Malgi Hydel Project 1.40 Khargola Hydel Project 2.30 Khayo Hydel Project 2.60 District. Kullu Lambar Hydel Project 3.00 Jijar Hydel Project 0.85 Mangsa Hydel Project 0.60 Kajo Hydel Project 0.70 Narudu Hydel Project 1.30 Kherd Hydel Project 0.20 Pangrang Hydel Project 1.70 Kyali Hydel Project 0.80 Raldang Hydel Project 1.30 Ogan Hydel Project 0.65 Rothen Lunga Hydel Project 3.00 Sumun Hydel Project 0.90 Rovang Hydel Project 2.00 Shailpya Hydel Project 0.50 District. Mandi Shankvi Hydel Project 1.80 Chhatri Hydel Project 1.35 Shaune Hydel Project 3.00 Sangroi Hydel Project 0.35 Shushang Hydel Project 0.90 Singan Hydel Project 0.70

151. Sediment remains a major issue for the hydropower projects. The 1500MW Nathpa Jhakari project originally had an upper limit of silt of 4000ppm in the river which after settlement in the settlement chambers corresponds to 2000ppm entering the turbines. Above this level the scheme has to close down. High level of sediment causes major erosion on the turbine blades requiring checking and repair every year. Blades are now coated with Tungsten Steel which allow a longer life time. The Jhakari scheme typically closes for 4-5 days per year due to heavy silt; which is as predicted in the design., In 2005 the scheme was closed for three weeks and 20 days closure was reported in 2010. The extent of closure is critical for the economics of the scheme as 65% of the whole year production occurs in the 90 days of June to August; each day of closure represents about 0.7% of the annual production. The general prognosis is that climate change will cause an increase in river sediment levels. Various methods are being developed by the hydroelectric projects to limit silt including:

(i) Small reservoirs for temporary sedimentation with periodic flushing of the reservoir, with and without, extended diversion and bypass tunnels to act as a bypass to enable the downstream portion of the reservoir to provide more efficient sedimentation when the river is in flood. (ii) Passing water through sedimentation chambers in the headrace system and flushing the settled sediment back into the river channel (as installed at the Nathpa Jhakari project). (iii) Provision of storage dams to allow for silt deposition (Kol and the proposed Khab reservoir).

152. The existing, planned and potential hydropower projects are shown in. Figure 16 below. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 40 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 16 Hydropower Projects in the Satluj Catchment

C. Planned Hydropower Projects

153. Excluding small hydropower, there are presently 19 hydropower projects planned for development, these project will provide a total of 2335MW about 24% of the potential. Apart from the Khab project these projects will be located on tributary rivers some of which are presently without hydropower. The tributary rivers are identified as being especially sensitive due to possible conflicts with other uses and the possible changes in hydrology due to changes in the rain, snow and glacier hydrology'. Some of the schemes lie in the altitude zone which are totally dependent on snow and glacier melt; concerns on the impact on the environment of these schemes has been made by the Shukla committee.

1. Khab Storage Project

154. The proposed Khab HEP is of special importance to the whole river system. The project includes the construction of 275m high concrete gravity dam located 2.5km downstream of the confluence of the Satluj and Spiti rivers. The project will have a 12.6km long and 9m diameter tailrace tunnel and would generate 1020MW of electricity with a tentative construction cost of 14,000 crores ($3000million). The dam will have a storage capacity of 95 million cubic metres and an estimated life span of 28 years. Two smaller storage dams on the Spiti river near Rangrik and Poh villages are also being considered to reduce sediment input to the proposed Khab dam

155. The heavy silt load in the Spiti and Satluj rivers and their resultant problems; especially to hydro projects is a major issue. The production in NJHEP often closes down due to heavy silt and the life span of Bhakra reservoir is being reduced. Catchment management in the upper catchment where most of the silt originates is limited due to the nonexistent rainfall in the north part of Kinnaur and Spiti as well as the 65% of the catchment which lies in PRC. The main solution being considered is the construction of a storage dam at Khab. The idea is to tap the water along with silt of the Spiti and Satluj river for dual purpose of controlling silt and producing energy. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 41 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

156. The initial proposal was to build one storage dam at Yangthang and another at the confluence of Spiti and Satluj at Khab and then to have a third project between Khab and Pooh. The total capacity of these projects put together was estimated to be more than 1200MW. After the breach in Parechu lake the need to have a storage dam after the confluence of Spiti and Satluj river was felt. Now the forum of Hydro Power Producers of Satluj Basin has came up with additional engineering measures to 44 deal with the damages caused due to heavy silt flow .

157. The total capacity of the Khab project is now estimated to be 1020MW. The storage dam will serve as a tool to control flood and silt. The proposed life expectancy of the project is 25-28 years. The Khab project will also enhance the life of the projects downstream and there is expectation that these projects should bear some part of the costs. These proposals are true to their name Khab; which means „a dream‟. There seem to be many associated technical, environmental and administrative reasons because of which a limited head way has been made.

158. Flood and silt control primarily aims at avoiding flash floods which has repeatedly caused huge human and capital cost. The breach in Parechu lake had threatened the entire habitat downstream, the Khab reservoir potentially would provide protection for such incidences. Heavy silt load flowing down the Satluj has repeatedly caused shut downs and huge damage to the turbines and other machinery in the d/s projects. The proposed silt control would significantly cut down repair and maintenance costs.

159. Power generation; the reservoir capacity shall be utilised for additional power generation to cater to the demand of entire northern India by adding more than 1000MW. The Khab project would provide silt control which would be of benefit to all the hydro producers to allow full capacity. Silt deposited in the Khab reservoir would extend the life time of the Kol and Bhakra dams as well as reduce the maintenance costs of the run of the river schemes.

160. The dam could potentially allow utilisation for irrigation or drinking water in the nearby Pooh area as well as opening the potentials for reducing the river silt load which would allow the Satluj river to be used for drinking water. The upgrading of infrastructure especially the road would benefit the local areas. The infrastructure activities developed due to the proposed projects will also help to gear up this region socially and financially.

161. The dam would involve virtually no displacement of population. There are some concerns however of how changes in humidity from the dam may result in increased rain in this normally cold desert area. There are concerns of the local communities about the potential impacts of tunnelling on the springs which are used for drinking and irrigation. There is no rainfall in this zone so total dependence on these traditional water sources is high. The dam could affect the river and riparian ecology.

162. The fragile mountainous region is highly seismic ;sensitive; the dam would have to incorporate the maximum levels of seismic resistance into the design. Water flows into the dam would be entirely derived from snow and glacier melt both of which will change under climate change conditions. Improved understanding of the long term changes would be critical. There is no information on the potential developments in the upper Satluj in PRC some of which could affect water inflows into India.

163. The project is one of the largest infrastructure projects under consideration in India. The dam height of 275m would result in a reservoir extending almost up to almost China border. The enormous silt load would limit the life expectancy of the storage dam to only 25-30 years. After that time it would function as a Run-of-the-River project and will not serve as storage for water and silt. There are

44 Studies conducted by the engineers indicated that the snow-fed Sutlej and Spiti, its main tributary, had been bringing down 16 million cubic metre (MCM) of silt annually at the Nathpa dam. At Khab, the confluence of the Sutlej and Spiti, the annual quantum of silt was 12 MCM, out of which 6.5 MCM was being contributed by Spiti. A storage dam at Khab is proposed to help arrest annually 12 million cubic metre (MCM) of silt to ensure smooth running of six major projects downstream.

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 42 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report concerns over the security, the risks in the high seismic zone, environmental and social issues. Funding of the project is an issue; the GoHP is looking for central government funding as well as funding from downstream hydropower projects; benefits would accrue from the storage and reductions of silt which increases life of downstream reservoirs. At present there is no agreement on the funding share. Although very small and not directly affected by inundation the local communities are concerned about the environmental and social impacts- special concern is the potential loss of springs and traditional water sources by the tunnelling.

D. Agriculture

164. The average land holding size in the state is about 1.2ha with over 92% of holdings classified as small or marginal. Fertilizer use is about half of the national average with crop cultivation is mainly on terraces most land slopes are between 5% o 30%. Cropping in the valley is linked to elevation as shown in Figure 1745. Cropping without irrigation is possible in the lower parts of the basin below Rampur where adequate level of monsoon rainfall permits. In the upper parts of the catchment above Rampur low or no rainfall precludes any cropping without irrigation.

165. Although staple food production remains the main priority, over the last decade a major shift to vegetables and horticulture has occurred. The temperate climate in the basin opens opportunities to market and develop high grade and off-season vegetables46. The shift to vegetables is primarily in areas with irrigation and where farmers have been able to adjust from subsistence food production to higher risk but better return cash crops. Apples form the main crop in Kinnaur. Stakeholder consultation demonstrates how climate variability is already beginning to affect all crops, especially vegetables; improved and expanded irrigation and rainwater harvesting are seen as an important requirement to meet the rainfall irregularities.

Figure 17 Agricultural Crops by Altitudinal Zones The switch to vegetable and horticulture cash crops forms a key part of the State Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007/08 - 2011/12). The state government has put high priority on diversification from traditional crops to commercial ones. The DOA has formulated a fifteen year “Master Plan and Action Plan on Rural Development under the technical assistance by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2009. Follow up studies have been completed and agreement has now been made with JICA47 to fund a Rs 267 crore ($58million) program of crop diversification primarily for vegetable production under irrigation; the five year program will start initially in Hamirpur but later include four other districts namely Bilaspur, Kangra, Una and Mandi. JICA will fund a parallel TA to support vegetable production. The scope of the proposed JICA work is now finalised with the plan to start in 2011.

45 Centre for Geo-informatics, CSK HImachal Pradesh Agriculture University. 46 Off season vegetables are grown in Himachal Pradesh during the periods when vegetables cannot be feasibly be grown in the lower elevation areas in neighbouring states. 47 JICA: "Diversified Agriculture for Enhanced Farm Income in the State of Himachal Pradesh". The proposed project targets agricultural diversification through conversion from food grains to diversified crops, especially to vegetables for enhanced farm income of small and marginal farmers. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 43 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

1. Major Challenges for Agriculture

166. There exists a very mixed situation of agriculture in the basin. Farmers with irrigation are making good returns from vegetables and horticulture, mainly apples. Farmers without irrigation or with irregular unreliable irrigation or lack of capital are unable to benefit and continue to grow very marginal food crops; the unviable size, with about 64% of holdings less than 1ha and the relatively high costs of inputs; viability of holdings is gradually becoming more critical due to the progressive fragmentation of holdings through inheritance.

167. Rural society is gradually changing as traditional and communal farming systems are breaking down. Many family members now have off-farm employment which causes increased labour costs and shortages, hired labour often from Bihar or other plain states is relatively expensive reducing the margins for many crops; margins and risks are sometimes considered insufficient to justify planting.

168. The changes in climate are now affecting farmers, less rainfall and reduced snowfall are affecting crops; planting of Rabi crops is frequently delayed and affected by erratic rainfall, horticultural crops suffer stress at the fruiting stage which is adversely affecting the quality and quantity of the produce. There is a lack of systematic planning for agriculture; resource surveys can better support the selection of the crops and requirements for inputs as well as assessment of the optimum markets.

169. The Government is offering major subsidies in agriculture including financial support for the capital costs of irrigation systems, and polyhouses. At present, only a few mainly more wealthy farmers are able to source the necessary funds and take advantage of the schemes on offer. Mechanisms to widen the take up are required, there would appear to be scope for the private sector to better support uptake of improved irrigation systems and precision agriculture through credit, extension and marketing support.

170. Farmers are gradually moving towards mixed farming including agriculture, horticulture, vegetables and livestock. Mixed farming uses the available farm resources to the maximum possible levels and provides good returns to the grower. At present government extension services and support services are specialised into one area or another, and there is a lack of an integrated extension support to assist „mixed farming‟ practice.

171. The move away from grain crops towards vegetable cash cropping is based on the attractive financial returns. In terms of climate adaptation, the better returns from vegetables, opens the financial viability of providing irrigation, which in turn creates improved resilience against rainfall uncertainties. Other climate issues such as temperature changes as well as possible temperature effects of pests and diseases may pose additional issues. Large areas of the agricultural land are poor quality and provision of irrigation is technically and financially difficult. For these parts, farming will continue under rainfed conditions. Winter grain cropping is very vulnerable to rainfall uncertainties and options for alternative lower risk cropping should be explored. There is potential for agro-forestry, grass and other perennial crop development. The Forests department through the mid-Himalayan Watershed Development Project has recently initiated the raising of forests on private and community land. Farmers will be able to earn around Rs4000/ha annually through carbon credit funding over a 30 year period.

172. Precision agriculture is gradually being introduced by DOA. The basis of precision agriculture is to improve farm management and adjusting the cultural practices to take into account the real needs of the crop including quality and appropriate seed, efficient water distribution and applications, fertilizers and polyhouses. For the small holder with around 1ha of land, precision farming allows opportunities to improve efficiencies and increase outputs. With a likely worsening of growing conditions under climate change and the high costs of pumped irrigation or the very restricted water availability from water harvesting, precision farming can offer opportunities to maximise the use of scarce/expensive irrigation or harvested water. Precision farming is particularly applicable in Satluj river where irrigation is expensive and high elevation spring and stream sources are limited. It is recommended that prioritisation of support for precision agriculture is given to high head irrigation pump schemes or water short water harvesting projects, IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 44 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

173. The DOA have developed a number of models to support precision farming including sprinkler, drip irrigation, polyhouses (polythene green house), polytanks (polythene lined earth tanks), concrete tanks etc. More research is required to design and source the most appropriates systems; user acceptability is a key issue. There is also scope for new ideas and technologies that could be applied to widen the scope of options. Many of these new approaches rely on subsidies which are in most cases a necessary way to meet the upfront costs of many of the new technologies; the approach and modalities of subsidies need however to be kept under constant review. The departments of Horticulture, DOA and the university of Agricultural departments must work together with the DIPH to support the uptake of high value crops, improved water use efficiency and operationalisation of irrigation projects to achieve the targeted production benchmarks..

174. Use of appropriate seed varieties is a key area with major potential for effective climate adaptation. The DOA has, for many years been supporting the use of HYV seed to promote increased yields; under the current and future situations of climate irregularities, it will be necessary to adapt seeds appropriate for the new growing conditions. The agricultural universities are carrying out research into appropriate seeds and there is a need for close liaison between the researchers, the DOA and extension staff. Adequate and flexible seed multiplication is an important requirement. The use of genetically modified seed to combat rainfall irregularities may become a necessary adaptation measure at some stage.

175. It is estimated that approximately 20%-25% of the horticulture and vegetable produce goes to waste due to improper post harvest operations which reduces the growers share. In the present marketing arrangements, growers only receive about 25% of retail value. Efforts are now ongoing to evolve a marketing systems where growers and consumers both benefit. The efforts are also on “Value Addition” activities where the fruits and vegetables are processed; those fetch higher remunerative prices of the produce. Various state and central government organisations as well as private sector support fruit and vegetable marketing and processing cooperatives and companies. Support includes creating infrastructure for marketing, processing and storage, including cold storage of agricultural produce.

176. There is a good scope for public-private sector participation to support the introduction of precision farming and improved marketing systems. Agriculture companies can support agricultural intensification by provision of equipment (drip, sprinkler, polyhouses, etc), credit, agricultural inputs, know how, management and marketing. Similarly companies may be contracted in to provide a complete support package. The use of performance based contracts could be appropriate with payments made on results (yields, production levels, areas planted etc).

E. Fisheries

177. Fisheries is a small but important sector in the state. River fisheries in particular have been severely affected by the hydropower projects which have blocked migration routes. The low environmental flows from the hydropower projects have also affected the river fisheries production. The Satluj river above Bilaspur harbour 51 species of cold water fishes including exotic trout, snow trout and several other hill species. The fishes are mostly found in the lower reaches of the Satluj river. The flow in the upper reaches of the river Satluj is very turbulent with a heavy load of silt. Current velocity and low natural biota are also factors inhibiting fisheries in the area; frequent floods, at times can wipe entire species type from the river body. Overall the cold-water streams are inherently poor in biological productivity due to low temperature and scanty food.

178. Aquaculture in the lower elevation areas is focused around small ponds (rainfed or irrigation fed) for growing a mix of Indian Carps and Catfish. Higher elevations areas where water temperatures never exceed 150C are suitable for trout cultivation. Trout cultivation is expanding in the higher elevation rivers and can achieve good returns; some of the hydropower compensation funds are supporting trout hatcheries and on-growing. Cultivation is presently limited to medium sized commercial organisations in concrete raceways; although there would appear to be potential for smaller low intensity systems in ponds48. Sport fishing in the higher elevation rivers is becoming

48 Trout cultivation in ponds is practiced in some farms in Europe, a part of the food source is natural from the pond and lower stocking densities allow more natural growth and less risk of disease.. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 45 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report popular, trout are stocked in the river but also native species are highly prized and reach large sizes. Fish ponds can provide excellent retention of storm runoff.

179. As a result of directly receiving cold water from the Himalayas, the reservoirs, in spite of being situated at a relatively low altitude, contains stocks of coldwater fish. The gradual but continuous increase in fish catches through stocking from of the reservoirs has led to a stable commercial fishery..

180. Climate change will likely increase the flood flows and turbidity levels and temperature of the rivers. Water temperatures in the upper catchments normally never exceed 120C, while the water temperatures in the lower level Bhakra reservoir are in the range of 9-210C. The increased temperatures from climate change will affect the river temperatures but as many rivers are fed from glacier melt the impacts may not be so significant, but will require monitoring and assessment. Water temperatures downstream of dams are reported to be higher due to the reduced flows and depths. Research into likely future water temperatures along the main rivers is an important requirement to support aquaculture and fisheries planning.

181. Snow trout (Schizothorax richardsonii) is the only commercial species observed in the river Satluj. This species in the normal course of its life cycle undertakes long journey during winter months for migrating to warmer waters at lower elevation and vice-versa during summers. With the warming of water in the lower reaches, in summer season, the species migrates towards the upstream reaches. During its upstream movement, in the months of May and June, this species breeds in the several side streams. The three species Salmo truta fario Salmo gairdneri and Schizothorax richardsonii are present near the confluence of the Baspa river and migrate into Baspa river for breeding. Similar is the case with other tributaries like the Soel khad, Alseed khad, Ali khad, Gamrola khad, Ghambhar khad, Seer khad, Sukhar khad, Sarhali khad, and Lunkar khad. There exist spawning or breeding grounds along with the river and its tributaries, especially along the Baspa river.

F. Irrigation

182. Irrigation is widely seen as one of the major areas to support improved production of cash and staple crops as well as meeting the impacts of increasing climate variabilities. The reported area of irrigation constructed in the state as a whole is 228,000ha (100,000ha small scale through the Departments of Rural Development and Agriculture and 128,000ha under DIPH49; the overall potential irrigated area is estimated to be 335,000ha50. The actual functional irrigated area appears to be significantly less and is estimated to be about 100,000 ha51, less than half the constructed area.

183. The Command Area Development (CAD) program funded by central government activities has been established to bridge the gap between potential area created and utilized. The program covers both medium and minor irrigation schemes. The CAD program was initiated with the objective of fast utilization of irrigation potential and optimum agriculture production from irrigable land. To date, upto 22,300ha of field channels and 21,734ha. Warabandi52 have been completed in the state, this is only about 17% of the irrigation area under DIPH.

184. Wherever possible gravity irrigation is given priority over lift irrigation; of the 2,506 irrigation projects under DIPH in the state, 543 were lift (21%) and 550 (22%) were tubewells schemes, the remaining 960 (38%) were gravity. The lack of suitable sites and demand for irrigation is however now creating a situation requiring more extensive use of lift irrigation. The available water sources, topography and soils all make irrigation difficult and of high cost; the use of lift irrigation is frequently problematic and regionally has a very poor track record. DOA and DIPH are both developing lift irrigation schemes, their approach is however different; DOA provides financial subsidies and support for pumps, tanks and sprinkler or drip distribution for schemes up to 50ha; completed schemes are handed over to farmers. DIPH is constructing and operating directly the larger schemes where distribution is mainly by open channel and flood irrigation; a number of sprinkler and drip schemes are however being constructed. Despite efforts to establish water user associations, schemes remain

49 Of the 128,000ha, 109,000 is classed as minor irrigation and 19,000ha as medium and major irrigation. The DIPH defines minor irrigation as below 2000ha. 50 State annual plan 2009-10 51 Minor Irrigation Census, 2000/01 and Annual Plan 2006/07 Irrigation & Public Health Department 52 Warabandi is defined as rotation or scheduling of water allocations. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 46 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report largely operated by DIPH staff. Improved coordination of DIPH and DOA irrigation programmes is very important. Site selection and management approaches should be rationalised and consistent.

185. The potential for high value vegetable crops and good availability of hydropower in the state supports the strategies for lift irrigation. There is however concern over the costs, sustainability and environmental impacts of some of the high head lift irrigation currently being planned and developed (lifts are often upto 100-150m and with some schemes of up to 300m). The newly constructed 2300ha Canggar scheme in Bilaspur, pumping heads are between 100 to 300metres with pumps, capital costs are about 3.4 lakh/ha ($8500/ha). Energy costs are estimated to be 10lakh/month ($20,000). To cover the very high capital and operational costs it is extremely important to develop high return agriculture including applications of precision agriculture. For example installation of drip irrigation would cost an additional $700/ha but would allow significant reduction in pumping costs and opportunities for increased financial returns. Drip irrigation and polyhouses would offer even greater opportunities to increase the viability of the scheme. Preparation and support to farmers will be essential-to date DOA have not been associated with the project.

186. Through the DIPH program, capital and operational costs are fully or highly subsidized. Comprehensive economic and social assessments are required to clearly assess the viability and sustainability of irrigation projects together with requirements for increased stakeholder participation in scheme planning and management. Initiatives to improve efficiencies are essential for lift schemes; these are required to reduce the energy waste from excessive water losses and to expand the command area to maximise the beneficiary farmers. Targets for irrigation efficiency should be linked to the pumping head-gravity or low pumping heads could have lower efficiencies with high head schemes to be supported by very high efficiencies though drip or other appropriate methods including polyhouses.

187. Climate changes will affect the dry season flows and many smaller schemes may have reduced water availabilities as a result. The extent and seriousness will vary depending on the catchment conditions and the source of dry season flows. To compensate, critical schemes will require investments to improve the catchment conditions as well improvements in distribution efficiencies - the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) target is a 20% increase in irrigation efficiencies, a reasonably appropriate and viable target. DIPH requires to make inventories and assessments of stream flows and water demands to identify and inventory the most vulnerable schemes.

188. The poor take up of irrigation is one of the major challenges facing the irrigation sector. The exact causes require to be identified and appropriate approaches developed to ensure the full potentials of the irrigation investments are realized. There are concerns over the lack of local labour which results in the recruitment of external labour which reduces the financial viability of many crops. Other reported issues include frequent pump breakdowns resulting in farmer reluctance to plant. Putting the existing irrigation schemes into order and maximizing their potentials should be one of the top priorities for the irrigation sector. Establishment of robust and sustainable irrigated farming systems is a fundamental requirement towards climate resilience.

53 189. Water harvesting is widely seen as a potential area of support for agriculture to offset the variabilities of rainfall. The technologies and approaches are poorly researched; in the extremely steep catchments, storage options are quite limited. The steep topography does open potentials for gravity irrigation through water harvesting. Water harvesting provides the only option for supplementary water in areas high above the river sources where high head lift irrigation is not financially viable. Water harvesting reduces storm runoff which is an important side benefit. To be financially viable water harvesting requires access to low cost storage and high efficiency distribution systems. Capital costs for water harvesting can be high and net water volumes limited.

190. Costs of water storage are high in the state so water harvesting must be cost effective and must be developed as a supplementary water source or using very high application efficiencies. For example water harvesting to support irrigation for a polyhouse or as emergency „life saving‟ irrigation. Studies into alternative storage systems indicate that the polythene lined tanks (polytanks) can provide

53 Water harvesting for this study refers to the capture and storage of rainwater or runoff for water use-mainly agriculture or water supply. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 47 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report lower unit costs of storage than concrete54; sustainability appears good although there are some reservations from farmers. Further research to identify appropriate low cost storage systems and efficient water distribution is recommended; butyl tanks, ferrocement, corrugated iron/butyl lined tanks are a number of options that could be considered and tried on a pilot basis. Comparison and assessment of the relative advantages/disadvantages of water harvesting and lift irrigation at various pumping heads should be carried out. Household roof harvesting has many advantages and can reduce runoff and also support potable water needs and irrigation for small kitchen gardens. There is scope to reuse potable water for irrigation; basic treatment for „domestic waste water‟ could be provided in reed beds and used for irrigation after treatment. The very steep topography limits the size of any storage.

191. Most of the irrigation in the Satluj valley is small scale; the largest scheme in the Satluj catchment is the recently completed 3000ha Canggar Area Irrigation Project in Bilaspur district. Irrigation has low levels of efficiency, service delivery and agricultural outputs are significantly below potential. The actual functional area of irrigation is only about 40-50% of the constructed area; the reasons for this are varied but include the lack of legislation, poor coordination between the Government and the water users‟ association (WUA), lack of field channels and high costs of pumping for lift schemes.

192. Increased variability of rainfall and the move to high value cash crops has increased the need and interest for irrigation. Somewhat contrary to this there is a lack of uptake in the irrigation by farmers in many schemes which needs to be investigated. This limited take of irrigation is one of the major challenges to the irrigation sector. High levels of off farm employment and difficulties and costs of recruiting labour is one reason that is quoted. Climate change will affect dry season flows of many smaller streams; this will be especially pronounced in snow fed streams without any significant glacier feed. Establishment of robust irrigation systems (both physical and management) is a key requirement towards climate change adaptation.

193. Irrigation in Kinnaur district is especially important; all the schemes are gravity schemes and due to the low or almost zero rainfall, irrigation is essential for apple and pea production. Irrigation is only taken up on owner-occupier land holdings. It is reported that much of the potential irrigation land remains classed as forest land; many parts remain barren due to the lack of rainfall. The lack or slow rate of transfer of forest land is one reason limiting the expansion of irrigation in Kinnaur. High altitude irrigation is practiced with schemes up to 3500m feet, accessing water sources at 5000m feet.

G. Potable Water

194. The river Satluj is not the main source of potable water in the area. The natural springs and 'chashme'55 are the key sources of water for people living in the area for their own consumption, livestock use and irrigation purposes. In most of the villages except those, situated on high hills, DIPH has laid down the pipelines to connect the natural springs (at upper reaches) to the households through storage tanks for water supply after providing primary treatment. The villages that are located on higher reaches depend directly on natural springs or streams (khads) flowing in the vicinity. There are reports of traditional drinking water sources being disturbed by tunnelling an issue of major concern amongst the communities. Although investigations into this issue have been carried out, the results are not so conclusive; the causes of disturbances are not certain but could be attributed to climate change or water entering the tunnels (for example dewatering of tunnels at the Rampur scheme is significant with volumes estimated to be ~100l/s).

195. Most settlements are planned to supply clean water as per government standards. In rural areas, house connections are supplied to about 50% of households with the remainder from standpipes. Future water demand is proposed to increase from gradually upgrading of levels of supplies and the percentage of house connections. Many rural water schemes are sourced from springs or small rivers located strategically close and with adequate elevations to supply settlements by gravity. Increased drought and reduced dry season flows will likely put many smaller river and

54 Estimated unit storage costs from DOA are about Rs 500-1000/m3 (poly-lining and brick), higher than unlined tanks (Rs170/m3) but significantly lower than concrete about Rs2000/m3 55 Local term for a small pond of natural water. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 48 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report spring sources at risk of inadequate flow or drying up. DIPH recognizes the problem, and is supporting soil water conservation works in the catchments of vulnerable water sources. To meet water shortages at some sites, the DIPH is in the process of moving towards the development of larger pumped schemes from secured sources supplying multiple villages; a strategy that requires good design, management and sustainable revenue to meet operation costs.

196. Household rainwater collection tanks could support small kitchen gardens and supplementary water for domestic use and also help reduce storm runoff. The use of rainwater tanks is now becoming mandatory in urban areas; there would appear to be a scope to extend this to the rural areas in conjunction with initiatives in water harvesting for agriculture. In Bilaspur an initiative to install roof rainwater tanks for schools is being developed. Another potential is the use of domestic waste water (grey water) to support irrigation of small kitchen gardens. There is also scope for combining water supplies for potable water and irrigation. Treatment would be at the village with the untreated part applied to support precision irrigated agriculture using drip systems, polyhouses etc.

197. A major policy issue for the potable water is the near zero charging for potable water. Gravity water schemes have low O&M costs but for pumped schemes, costs are of the order of Rs6/m3. DIPH is now initiating a gradual handover of drinking water schemes to the Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI) or Urban Local Bodies (ULB). There is however a need to build up the capacities of these institutions to effectively take on the real responsibilities of water supply management including putting effective cost recovery systems in place to meet the basic operation and maintenance costs. Together with the irrigation projects assessment of service delivery and establishing minimum targets to be achieved must be a priority. A key role of the proposed water regulator will be to set benchmarks for service delivery.

198. Urban Water Supplies: There are 19 urban centres in the Satluj Catchment as shown in Table 14 below. All the centres are reported to have upgraded water supply systems except Shimla, Nahan and Rampur. For Shimla urban area the present water coming is from the Giri river which can meet the need of the town till 2015 and after that there is a need for a new project; a major new supply (estimated at Rs490 crore) is being proposed from the Kol dam on the Satluj river. A previous option from the Pabbar river has been shelved due to the significantly higher capital costs. Upgrading for Rampur (Rs 5 crore) and Nahan (Rs53 crore) is presently planned. Nahan is in the Yamuna catchment just outside the Satluj basin, but could be considered for investment. Reckong Peo the district town for Kinnaur is not classed as an urban centre.56

Table 14 Summary of Urban Centres

Nr Name District Status 1 Bilaspur Bilaspur Ongoing upgrading 2 Chopal Shimla Upgrading completed 3 Ghumarwin Bilaspur Upgrading completed 4 Jubbal Shimla Upgrading completed 5 Kasauli Solarn Cantonment 6 Kotkhai Shimla Upgrading completed 7 Nahan Sirmour Proposed upgrading 8 Nalagarh Solan Upgrading completed 9 Narkanda Shimla Upgrading completed 10 Paonta Sirmour Upgrading completed 11 Parwanoo Solan Upgrading completed 12 Rampur Shimla Proposed for upgrading 13 Rohru Shimla Upgrading completed 14 Shah Talai Bliaspur Upgrading completed 15 Shimla Shimla Proposed for upgrading

56 Firstly, the urban centres in HP are divided according to the size of the population of the city. Class 1- 100000 and above- Shimla town; Class 2- 50000-100000- no urban centre ; Class 3- 20000-50000- no urban certre in Satluj basin, Class 4- 10000-20000- Bilaspur; Class 5- up to 10000- Rampur, Rohru, Theog

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 49 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

16 Shree Naina Devi Jee Bilaspur Upgrading completed 17 Solan Solan Upgrading completed 18 Sunit Bilaspur Upgrading completed 19 Theog Shimla Upgrading completed 199. A major problem of the urban centres is the lack of revenue for O&M; the present water supply situation is characterised by low tariffs, low revenue and low efficiencies and service delivery

200. Sanitation: The State of the Environment report identifies untreated sewage as the single largest polluter with respect to Faecal Coliform and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) . In most areas sewage is characterised by sceptic tanks, many of these are not designed or maintained properly, moreover in areas of shallow bedrock infiltration is limited and many of the soak pits do not operate in the desired fashion. Development of sewage lags behind the implementation of water supply projects.

201. Increased demands for urban water are requiring access to sustainable water sources. Issues of water sources drying are reported - recently Mandi town (Beas basin) had major problems. A major new lift water system from a tributary is being constructed for Bilaspur. Pollution is and will continue to be an issue relating to the gradual urbanisation and industry mainly around Bilaspur. Pollution control is under the State Pollution Control Board (SPCB), a state nodal agency for the planning, promotion, co-ordination and overseeing the implementation of environmental programs. For the future, it is anticipated that winter low flows may decrease, which will reduce the capacities of the receiving waters to accept wastewater. Industry affects water quality through the release of contaminated waste water as well as turbidity of river water from mining and excavations at hydroelectric sites-increased levels of rainfall intensity will exasperate this situation.

202. The steep terrain and the rapid and intense runoff is an issue in the urban areas. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) offers potentials to reduce runoff peaks. The philosophy behind SUDS is that storm water runoff characteristics from any new development should not exceed the runoff time-discharge values of the undeveloped site. Where possible infiltration should be used to absorb the extra water, if this is not possible water should be stored on site and released slowly over time.

H. Forestry

203. The forests and other natural ecosystems that constitute two-thirds of the geographical area of the state are crucial for its environment especially the water resources. Water shed modelling show the Himalayan forests play a crucial role in sustaining base flows in the region. In 2005 the State forest department issued a new sector policy and strategy57 which opens the way for forestry to evolve from management of timber production to multifunctional management and integrated land use planning to support the regularization of water supplies and other water shed functions. In relation to water resources, effective watershed management is a critical area, especially important as 66% of the geographical area is classified as forest land. The total forest cover of Himachal in 1987 was 38percent of the total land where as in 2005 it was 26 percent. The State government wants to increase it to 50 percent of the total land. There are many Forest Conservation Programmes going on 58 in the State.

204. The move towards forest conservation is not an easy transition and requires the development of market mechanisms and incentives to promote and implement the forest management. Financing of these requires new approaches recognizing the economic value of eco-services to the state and nation as well as beneficiaries.

205. Hydropower projects in the state are required to provide funds (not less than 2.5% of the investment costs) towards CAT plans. The activities under the CAT include afforestation, fuel, fodder, plantation, soil and water conservation, erosion control and awareness. The CAT plan should cover not less than 15% of the catchment, 1% to be earmarked for ecotourism, protection of wildlife. CAT plans do not cover rural infrastructure which is under LADF. The survival rate of these new plantations is very low (not even 40%-50%, according to the forest officials) and the replaced species

57 Himachal Forest Sector Policy and Strategy 2005 Himachal Pradesh Forest Department. 58 More information is given on the official website of forest Department www.hpforest.nic.in. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 50 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report does not replicate the quality of the original forest. There are eight CAT plans for the Satluj basin with a total outlay of Rs189 crore ($42 million). To end 2011 the total spend has been Rs102 crore ($23 million)

206. The Forest Department is now moving away from CAT programmes focused around specific hydropower projects and moving towards river basin programs, with a more holistic approach and more conducive to livelihood support and participative community actions.

207. Although land demarcated as forest land cover 66% of the land, the actual forested area covers only 26% of the total. In the Satluj basin large areas of cold desert, rock and near vertical hillsides are classed as forest but largely unsuitable for trees. Forests are classed under six classes as in Table 15.

Table 15 Forest Areas Sr. Classification Area (km²) % No 1 Reserved forests 1896 5.1 2 Demarcated Protected forests 11387 30.7 3 Un-demarcated Protected forests 21656 58.5 4 Un-classed forests 976 2.6 5 Others (managed by Forest department) 370 1.00 6 Not managed by Forest department 748 2.0 Total 37033 100

208. The vegetation and forests varies in Satluj basin due to extreme variation in elevation and rainfall patterns. The altitudinal differences influence the process of precipitation and subsequently the vegetation. As such, the vegetation in the entire basin ranges between tropical to alpine. In lower regions where the climate is comparatively warmer the vegetation is tropical consisting mainly of deciduous forest due to higher amount of rainfall especially in the monsoon. In the middle ranges in the southern slopes of Himalayas, the temperature touches zero level in winters. Due to these low temperatures the forests largely consists of temperate varieties like deciduous coniferous, blue pine, deodar and oak. The temperature in the higher regions is Figure 18 Forest Cover sub-zero and has alpine character. Because of extreme cold conditions and low precipitation the region is mostly dry and barren. The shrubs in the alpine areas adjoining temperate regions make good pasture fields.

209. The forests have come under pressure due to the various development activities. Climate change is reported to be also having some effect on forest health. In addition, the population growth in the habitat has put immense pressure on the limited land available for agriculture. The forests have been a source of livelihood activities like grazing, fuel wood, fodder and timber. The non-wood forest produce cater to livelihoods of various landless and poor.

210. A Satluj catchment information system is presently being developed for the department of Forests by NERIL consultants. The information system will be in GIS format and will include information of the various classes of landform and administrative information59. The NERIL consultants are presently preparing micro watershed wise action plans for catchment treatment along with cost estimates as well as a financial plan for the implementation of the proposed comprehensive CAT plan. The final plan will be produced later in 2011. Some concerns have been expressed about the planning including the lack of local participation in the planning process and the need to incorporate local knowledge.

59 Layers will include; Digital Elevation Model, Land Use, District, Tehsil and Block boundaries, Agroecological Zones, Forest boundaries, Forest Type, Soil TypemType, Rainfall and Landform. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 51 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

1. Compensatory Afforestation

211. The loss of forest cover from developmental projects is not extensive but more localized with quite visual impacts of scarring and land slips. It has been reported by a national daily newspaper, Indian Express that over 11 lakh (1.1 million) trees have been cut for hydro projects and their transmission lines60. From the official state data it is estimated however that only about 0.25% of the total forest areas or 9,131 hectares forest land has been diverted for non-forestry purpose since 1980 after the enactment of forest Conservation Act (FCA) till date. Forest loss is contributed by roads 1700ha, HEPs 3929ha, transmission lines 2225ha, mining 822ha, irrigation and other 70ha.

212. Projects cleared after 1980 are paying a significant amount of money to compensate for the loss of the forest wealth to the Forests department. With the development of private investment in the power sector in the 90s the numbers of projects have gone up along with the compensation money61. The ecological importance of the forest is recognised and developers are required to pay, to recreate at least double the forest area they utilize for the project, to the Forest department under Compensatory Afforestation (CA)62. New ideas for forest compensation are being considered. These include the concept of applying Net Present Value (NPV) of forest to calculate more appropriate levels of compensation for loss of the ecological contribution of the forest land diverted or submerged by the project63. This is similar to the concept of “Payment for Environmental Services” or PES; where those who benefit from environmental goods and services pay those who provide these services. Charging for the benefits provided by forests and other natural ecosystems is a way to recognize their full value and ensure that these benefits go well beyond present generations. The GOHP is considering implementation of these types of schemes in the near future.

213. These concepts provide a good mechanism to recreate any diverted forest in its entirety and allow the process of development to continue within the context of preservation of forests. Other conditionality's are put on developers including the requirement to provide free fuel wood or gas to the labour colonies to avoid the impacts of migrant labour destroying nearby forests. Labour is required to 64 be sensitized so as to minimise the damage to natural ecosystem .

I. Soil and Water Conservation

The Satluj catchment can be divided into four parts as shown in Table 16.

214. The type and causes of erosion varies considerably by season and location in the catchment. There are various programs to support soil and water conservation, either direct government or through the CAT program. In the upper catchment the land is extremely unstable, glacial deposits, slides and river blockages can cause major silt problems in the river. Construction works and spoils from road and hydropower contribute to the soil instability problems

215. CAT planning is mandatory for each major development project in the entire mountainous region. The underlying objectives of the CAT plans is to: (i) check soil erosion and land degradation by adopting effective soil conservation measures, both engineering and biological; (ii) rehabilitation of degraded forest areas through afforestation and facilitating natural regeneration and (iii) rehabilitate degraded slopes and landslide prone areas.

60 „Legalized Plunder: Hydel projects erase 10 lakhs green trees in HP‟HPp‟, Indian Express, November 18, 2009 61 For details please visit the Official website of Forests dForestepartment www.hpforest.nic.in 62 In case of CA if the non forestry area is available than the loss of 1 hectare land is to be compensated by planting 1 hectare of forest. But if non forest land is not available than in lieu of the loss of 1 hectare forest 2 hectares of forested area has to be densely forested. 63 For the calculation of the NPV, the Supreme Court appointed an expert committee on 26th September, 2005. The committee has laid down a methodology for determining the value of the areas; this includes ecological goods and services provided by the forest ecosystem - timber, non timber forest produce, firewood, fodder, grazing land, tourism, carbon sequestration, flood control, biodiversity, nutrient cycle and much more. 64 Vast tracts of forests on the upper Nilgiri plateau have disappeared due to the activity of the labouresrslabourers who had no resource but to cut them down in order to support themselves in a cold, wet and a windswept region. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 52 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

216. Effective management and implementation of the CAT plans is essential to counter the land degradation being accrued due to human activities as well as measures to control the natural degradation and instability of the catchments. Reduction of erosion directly benefits the turbines but in longer term slow and irreversible erosion effects the removal of nutrient rich topsoil leaving infertile subsoils.

217. CAT plans are prepared for the catchment of the proposed project area and are mostly executed by the Forests department. The management of funds for catchment work is complex as compensation money does not remain directly under the control of the implementing authority. In past, problems arose because compensation payments made to the State Finance and Planning department were not released easily and in a time for seasonal activities. To overcome this anomaly, Table 16 Catchment Zones the Central Government constituted a central authority known as „Compensatory Afforestation Management Part Description and Planning Authority‟ (CAMPA) in May 2006 after the recommendations of a Central Empowered Committee. 1 Tibetan No local rainfall and vegetation. In reality CAMPA did not become operational until Plateau Only water is snow or glacier 2009 as a result compensation funds were locked. The melt which results in deep CAMPA has now released 10% of the accumulated channel formation amount of each state, and the state CAMPA has now 2 Spiti The Spiti valley is the largest Valley tributary. The terrain is very sanctioned a proportionate amount for each project to similar to the Tibetan Plateau be spent in 2010-2011. This has resulted in delay in Rainfall is very scarce; snow the implementation of all the CAT plans and CA. Over melt forms deep flow channels and above the loss of physical benefit, the delay has 3 Khab to This part has little rainfall but seriously affected the way the hydropower projects are Nathpa melting snow. There is very dam Site limited vegetation perceived by the local communities and external 4 Nathpa to Rainfall is moderate to heavy. observers. Stakeholders unaware of the complications, Bhakra The area is forested with feel that both the project authority and the Forest dam agricultural development in department are not doing enough for mitigating the parts. Forest cover in parts is adverse impacts on forest. Poor allocation of funds is a sparse due to overgrazing. seen as a major hindrance in successfully In the lower area, Rampur to 65 Bhakra, the average slope of the implementing the CAT plans . The infrastructure river is about 1 in 300, with authorities and developers feel that they have done heavier rains and silt loads. their bit by handing over the money to the government and the onus is on the forest department to implement the plans.

218. The scale and complexity of the catchments requires a mix of specialist skills and new technologies including forestry engineering and soil and water conservation. The Forests Forest finds afforestation not an easy task as it faces many problems including the quantum increase in the work as well as a paucity of trained field staff in the Forest department.

219. The Forests Forest has always promoted fast growing species. Monoculture of chir pine and other fast growing tree types is predominant, resulting in changes in the forest ecology as well as changes in soil physicochemical and biological properties66. The planting of slower growing species such as the deodar, which takes 3-4 years to grow and hence is not favoured. Most of the foresters feel that new plantations can be done but it is difficult to recreate the original mixed forest with mixed tiers of trees, shrubs and plants.

220. Good and fertile land is already exhausted in the state. The Forest department generally has to use infertile and eroded land which is not fit for plantation. Unit costs for plantation in barren lands are significant which is not easily explainable. Yearly allocation of budget is based on fast growing species in reasonably fertile and accessible lands. The plantation heavily depends on good monsoon for 3-4 years and is not always lucky. In the northern part of the catchment beyond Reckong Peo there is a

65 The Compensatory Afforestation Fund management and Planning Authority (CAMPA) was notified for the purpose of management of money towards compensatory afforestation, NPVs, and any other funds recoverable in pursuance of the court's orders in 2004 but was operationalised in 2006. 66 Pines in the Himalayas past, presentPast Present and future scenariosFuture Scenarios Bhaskar Sinha National Institute of Science and Technology Studies 2002 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 53 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report rapid drop in rainfall to almost zero rainfall in Spiti. There are difficulties of protecting the plantation which is effectively open property from grazing and human interference.

221. During discussion it would appear that in fact the private promoters of projects would have no problems with taking the responsibilities of CAT plan and mitigating measures whatever the cost. However, many point out that while the failure is on the government‟s side but the people‟s anger is borne by the IPPs. Coordination is clearly lacking between power companies.

1. Way Ahead

222. There is a need to rethink some aspects of catchment management. There is a need to develop a mix of sustainable soil and water conservation and forestry initiatives that meet the needs of the communities as well as protecting the environment. A mix of commercial and traditional forest along with horticulture can allow integration and greater ownership by the communities; there is scope for Bio-Engineering methodology which should be applied for CAT where the native grass and shrubs are planted.

223. Better understanding and modelling of the forest-water relationships is required. The long held assumption that more trees mean better water yields is now being questioned. Despite the approximate $500 million a year spent on water shed management there is very little quantitive management on how the management approach affects the flow downstream. Some researchers including a recent UK Department for International Development (DFID) program in India have suggested that increased forestation results in a reduction in water yields.

224. Financial incentives for conserving natural resources should be encouraged: this would enable the capture of the cost of ecosystem services, carbon sequestration as well as land and livelihood opportunities. There are strong arguments to conserve parts of the catchment and exclude human intervention to be declared as eco-sensitive zones and made eligible for special dispensation from the Finance Commission.

225. There is a need to accelerate CAT works which requires timely and appropriate funding as well as improved technical training of field level staff. The scale of the work requires mechanisms to improve the rate and scale of implementation. The CAT work done by the Territorial Army Eco- Battalion for the Kol Dam project is viewed of superior quality and is frequently cited as an example for replication.

226. Sub-watershed catchment modelling offers opportunities for effective planning and management; large catchments can be prioritized into smaller hydrological units classified on the basis of silt load distribution by working out Silt Yield Indices (SYI). This watershed approach can be subsequently applied in various hydrological units on the basis of ratings based on climatic factors including: (i) precipitation frequency and intensity; (ii) geomorphology slope drainage; (iii) surface cover and (iv) management options.

227. Successive governments have realized the importance of maintaining forest cover not only in consideration of economic value but in terms of ecological flows which support the very life cycle on earth. Many initiatives like Watershed Management, Joint Forest Management and externally aided projects for mobilizing the community in forest protection are underway. There is an apparent thrust to manage forests as an eco-system with vital linkages to the livelihood practices.

228. The Department of Rural Development (DRD) is engaged on a wide number of rural development and poverty alleviation programmes. Soil and water conservation works form a major part of the DRDs programmes. DRD has many strengths through its close links with the panchayat and communities. Weaknesses include; the low productivity of manual labour on minimal daily rates, lack of support mechanisms including machinery for heavy work less suitable for manual labour, lack of integration and convergence with needs of the integrated catchment management and the individual water sectors (including agriculture, horticulture, water supply, irrigation and forestry). IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 54 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

J. Roads

229. The roads are seriously affected by runoff from the catchments. National highway 22 is extremely vulnerable to rivers, streams, land slips and flash floods. Very heavy construction traffic is causing major damage and the poor state of the road is one of the main areas of contention to infrastructure including hydropower development by the local communities.

230. Transportation sector was previously accorded the top priority in the first plan of Himachal Pradesh: it is however accorded lower priority to the power sector. The main road upto the Satluj valley is National Highway 22, which is funded by the Central Government. The National Highways agency with World Bank support is working on the road up to Narkanda. After Wangtoo the road is maintained by the Border Roads Organization (BRO). There are extra costs of the road upgrading to deal with the additional traffic load due to construction traffic. There is no commitment by the HEPs to contribute to the road costs but the BRO did receive 15% contribution from one of the IPP for the black topping. The road construction costs are extremely high and with low traffic levels the rates of return are lower. There are major costs involved in maintaining the security of the road from slippages, rock falls and washouts. Quite large parts of the road network is vulnerable to erosion from the main Satluj river: temporary repairs with gabions frequently fail. Nalla and tributary river crossings form continuous problems of rock slides and wash outs.

231. The roads and the continuous problems of closure during the rains is a major issue and is affecting the local communities. The communities rely on the roads to export agriculture produce. The national highways are central government funded and there is very limited dialogue on issues, funding and requirements. The road especially from Reckong Peo to Spiti is extremely challenging, despite the severe physical constraints the efficiency of road maintenance within the very limited resources is quite effective; a gradual upgrading is also being implemented. In many places the funding precludes the use permanent measures and temporary works are the norm. Roads also contribute to the erosion and muck dumping issues and there is a need to coordinate and ensure equal compliance of the environmental issues as the hydropower projects.

VI. ENVIRONMENT

A. Shukla Committee Report

232. The High Court of Himachal Pradesh in 200967 constituted a one man High Power Committee to examine environmental issues of hydropower projects including: (i) whether the hydro projects have followed the mandatory conditions of environmental clearances granted by Central and State agencies; (ii) whether the precautionary/necessary steps have been taken by the companies to restore environment and ecology in the project areas; (iii) whether it is advisable for the State Government to sanction construction of hydropower projects at the height of more than 7000 feet above sea level.

233. The Committee, along with the officers and experts of Department of Environment, Science and Technology (DEST), Forests department and MOEF focused on projects under construction since damage to the environment is mainly caused during the construction phase of the project. Eleven hydro projects were surveyed each with a generation capacity of more than 100MW; the projects were; Karcham Wangtoo, Parvati-II, Parvti-III, Alain Duhangan, Uhl-III, Kol dam,,Sawra Kuddu, Sorang, Chamera-III, Todong, and Rampur.

234. The committee identified the basic premise that hydro projects in a mountainous terrain, constrained by the requirement of design, technology, geography and finances would inevitably cause damage to the environment during the construction phase. There cannot be a totally environmental friendly hydropower project in the Himalayas. The results of blasting, tunnelling, cutting, dumping, tree-felling, diverting of rivers; all these are bound to have a severe and damaging effect on the environment and ecology of the area affecting the water sources, green cover, wild-life. These effects can be minimized by imposing conditions but cannot be totally done away with. It is for the government, both at centre and at state level, which has to weigh the pros and cons and decide

67 This committee was constituted as a response to a news item regarding the felling of a large number of trees for constructing the hydro projects, which appeared in the daily edition of “Indian Express” dated 19.12. 2009. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 55 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report whether this is a cost worth paying then they must accept that there will always be collateral environmental damage in process. Imposition of conditions while according clearance will not be able to prevent any environmental impact

235. CAT Plan after detailed analysis of reports three prime areas of concern were identified: (i) delays in implementation of CAT plans including CA; (ii) road construction and muck dumping which were estimated to be responsible for 90% of the damage caused to environment; and (iii) restoration which was expected from CAT and CA has not happened in most cases. The main delay was due to the CAT and CA money being locked in central CAMPA (which could not be released for various reasons), with 10% of which was only released only in 2009 not much progress could have been made. Thus, delay in implementation of these plans cannot be attributed to any lapses of either the project developers or the departments of the state governments.

236. Main Findings include: (i) the main valleys have already been saturated with the hydro power projects and projects are now being allotted in the side valleys of the tributaries; (ii) the muck is not being properly managed, most of the dumping sites have inadequate protection and muck can slide down the river any time. Plantation work is done in too much haste which does not produce satisfactory results; (iii) the Territorial Army Eco Battalion has done a commendable job in CAT at Kol dam. The muck dumping and slope management of Kol and Rampur project has also been appreciated; (iv) there appears to be genuine capacity constraint with the Forest department in spending huge amount of money allocated for CAT plan and CA; (v) the effect of tunnelling, blasting, felling of trees and diversion of waters over the entire basin has never been studied by the government before allotting these projects; (vi) hydro projects have been/are being allotted along rivers and their tributaries in a cascading manner, that is, one after the other in a series along the entire length of the river which forms an environmental hazard as no linear distance is being left between the tail race of one project and the intake of another. The repeated diversion into tunnels frequently renders long stretches of river bed dry as the 15% mandatory discharge from the dams is generally not being followed in most of the cases. Where releases are made they are so small that it makes no material benefit. There is also a lack of clarity amongst the different project authorities on compliance of this condition.

237. Recommendations include: (i) basin-wise EIAs for all the river basins of the state, until these are finalized no more hydro projects should be allotted or, where allotted, their clearances should be withheld; (ii) the dumping sites need to be monitored closely, at set intervals, with higher retaining walls; (iii) protection works should be carried out for first year or two at the dumping sites and plantation done only after the slopes have stabilised; (iv) dumping in forest areas has to be strictly monitored and if violated, should be visited with severe penalties; (v) project design should be such that it allows a seemless flow of 15% water without there being any requirement of effort, intervention or monitoring by either the PA Project Authority (PA) or the government and (vi) it is strongly recommended that some minimum riparian distance must be maintained between the tailrace of one project and the intake of the next in order to enable the river to recharge itself and to continue to sustain life along its length; until some expert body gives its advice this distance should be kept at 5km. Projects which have not yet received clearances and which do not conform to this requirement should be put to hold until such times that this entire issue is fully examined and policy framed. The Government has opposed most of the findings of the Shukla Committee. The State Pollution Control Board(SPCB) and Power Department have filed their own responses. The MOEF has recently come up with new conditions for basin wise surveys to maintain proper distance between two projects on the same river.

B. Environmental Clearance

238. As of 1994, all river valley and hydro electric projects needed to seek mandatory environment clearance as per the procedures laid out under the EIA. Notification was issued under the Environment Protection Act, 1986. While granting EC, the nodal impact assessment agency i.e. the MOEFputs down a set of conditions based on which clearance is granted. In case of river valley and hydro electric projects these conditions include parameters around muck/debris disposal, road construction, CAT, fuel supply to labourers, conservation effort, etc. These conditions are to be mandatorily adhered to by the project authorities. No objection letters are required from all the sector agencies as well as the Panchayats and the local communities. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 56 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

C. Summary of Hydropower Impacts

239. The environment of the Satluj valley is extremely fragile and the impact on environment of the various infrastructure projects has been significant. The environmental impacts are described in the various project EIA studies; the Shukla Committee has presented observations on compliance and issues. Some of the impacts are limited to the construction phase; dust, spoil, construction traffic and will cease once construction is complete, however, with construction probably ongoing and planned over 20 plus years construction impacts cannot really be classed as temporary. The cumulative impact assessment68 of the Satluj provides a summary of the impacts. A preliminary summary of the impacts is given in Table 17

Table 17 Summary of Main Hydropower Impacts

Nr Environment Description Notes Impacts 1 Impacts on Surface and Groundwater Systems 1.1 River Diversion At full development much of the Satluj and Most potable water and irrigation water is many tributaries will be have a percentage from springs and minor tributary streams. of the river flow diverted out of the river Natural fish stocks in the rivers are quite channel into the Hydro-electric tunnels. low-fish migration is already blocked at Minimum environmental flows are defined. Nathpa.

1.2 Storage Presently all the schemes have only Proposed storage reservoir at Khab will be minimal storage to meet peaking the largest reservoir except for Bhakra. demands. Low population densities and steep valleys Additional storage is proposed to reduce limit the impacts of storage. the silt loading.

Storage results in inundation and possible instabilities. 1.3 Impacts on Springs Tunnelling is causing impacts on springs Hydro producers are funding some and Groundwater and groundwater. compensation drinking water and irrigation Effects and mitigation measures through DIPH complicated. Once tunnels sealed impacts . should be reduced. Some new schemes are lift with issues of management and operational funding Hydrological changes from snow and glacier melt are complicating the issue.

2 Ecological Impacts 2.1 Change and loss of The forest areas are not so large but Most schemes are run of river with fairly forest impacts are very visible. Delays and poor low forest requirements. The proposed survival rates of replanting are issues. storage project at Khab will require forest land-however this is barren and without tree cover. 2.2 Change and loss of Some impacts due to construction and Works would mainly be in the lower valley bio-diversity migrant labour. not frequented by wild animals.

2.3 Indirect Impact on Rural population use the forest for house Fauna construction and fuel wood etc. 2.4 Aquatic Flora and Damming of the river and diversion affects Low productivity of the cold water Satluj Fauna and Fisheries fish migration. river. Impacts on Fisheries Low level environmental flows affect High velocities and sediment levels result fisheries. force fish refuges in the tributary rivers and Migrant labour may fish the river side streams. Dredging of the river for fine aggregates Some side streams have warm ground may affect spawning areas. waters which promote spawning,

3 Impacts of Soil Erosion and Muck Disposal Soil erosion from Roads both national, state and village Stabilization of erosion is difficult and often roads roads as well as the hydropower roads are ineffective. causing land slips. Improved planning design and funding required to provide permanent solutions. 3.1 Increased river River regulation modifies the sediment

68 Cumulative Impact Assessment of the Satluj DHI 2006 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 57 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

erosion regimes and can alter the natural processes of aggradation and erosion. Encroachment of HEP works into the river can cause bank erosion and instability 3.2 Impacts due to Some materials can be sourced from quarrying tunnelling spoil but some additional quarrying is required. Fine aggregates are sourced from the river bed. 3.3 Impacts of Muck The various HEP projects EIA's identify The likelihood of the muck entering the Disposal suitable dumping locations. Muck dumping Satluj river remains high. including the construction of retaining walls and plantation. Some muck disposal is reducing the It is estimated that potential social and sectional area of rivers. economic use of muck are not fully explored. 3.4 Impacts of blasting on High levels of dust are reported to be Various studies have been carried out. agricultural and affecting apple yields. The reported drop in production could be horticultural yield from a number of factors including bee populations. No definitive conclusion.

D. Changes to Surface and Groundwater Systems

1. Diversions

240. Diversion of rivers and streams renders the river dry or partially dry, from the point of diversion, for some distance, at least for a few months in a year. The smaller streams and the natural water sources dependent on the diverted stream face the danger of drying up. Once these streams get disturbed, it affects the water availability of the local people. The irrigation and drinking water schemes dependent on them also start becoming redundant. Diversion of river water also adversely affects an unspecified number of local sources of irrigation („kuhls‟) and power („gharats‟), as well as impacting the groundwater recharge. The water that will run through underground tunnels will receive no light and air circulation and so the quality of the water will also deteriorate.

241. The State Pollution Control Department passed an order in 2005 that a minimum average of 15 percent in flow of water in the reservoir was to be released by the hydro projects even during the lean season. Though, it is neither considered sufficient for safeguarding the ecology or satisfying the needs of the downstream communities nor is it currently being monitored well.

2. Storage

242. Only two of the hydro projects presently include storage-the 225m Bhakra dam 9600MCM and the Kol dam 575MCM presently under construction. The Bhakra dam has a very large reservoir with significant requirements for resettlement during the construction period. The Kol dam has quite small storage primarily as dead storage to retain silt. The proposed 275m Khab dam will include 95 MCM storage designed to arrest the 12MCM of silt brought down annually by the upper Satluj and Spiti rivers; the estimated life of the dam would be 28 years. It has been calculated that silt retained by the Khab dam would increase the life of the Bhakra reservoir by nine years and that of Kol Dam by fourteen years. Two additional dams are proposed upstream on the Spiti River at Rangrik and Poh to enhance the life of the Khab reservoir.

243. The very steep sided valleys limit the impact of submergence. Storage projects in the Satluj are primarily to reduce silt but would have some benefit in smoothing the flood peaks. Storage could allow for some increase in the minimum flows of benefit to the river ecology. Reduced sediment levels would improve photosynthesis and improve the habitat zooplanktons and fish.

3. Changes to Groundwater and Springs

244. Although avoiding the impacts of storage „run of the river‟ projects require the river flow to be diverted through long tunnels into the power house at long distance downstream. At the planned full development along the cascade of dams with connecting diversion tunnels will result in the whole Satluj river corridor being diverted into a series of diversion tunnels. The creation of a diversion tunnel IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 58 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report as well as ancillary adits (tunnels) etc. at full development, stretching virtually continuously from Spiti to Bilaspur has and will continue to have impact on the groundwater systems69. Once tunnels are fully sealed leakages into the tunnels will stop and in time some degree of spring recovery will likely occur. The impact on groundwater and springs are now one of the prime concerns of the communities and are being taken up by environmental activists.

245. It is well documented that construction of underground tunnels in mountains can have significant impacts on the regional hydrogeological systems. The tunnels which act as a drainage conduit can cause lowering of the hydrostatic water levels with effects on the discharge to water points, springs and river recharge. The drawdown can affect groundwater quantity and quality. Vegetation, modifications, slope stabilities, chemistry changes of thermal waters, etc. Blasting can also disturb the rock and fissure systems which may also have impacts. The impacts can continue until the tunnels are made fully water proof which is the case for most of the HEP tunnels. Some possible permanent changes to the fissure systems may occur. The severity of the impacts depends on the hydrogeological conditions surrounding the tunnels.

246. The impact of tunnels on the hydrogeology is complex. Unconnected and ongoing changes in the hydrology of the catchments due to rainfall changes, snowfall patterns and glacier retreat are also affecting the groundwater and springs. A new approach called the Drawdown Hazard Index70 allows a methodology to help verify and predict the impacts. Three levels of probability of tunnel impact, negligible, low and high can be ascertained which can be applied together with groundwater and spring monitoring to help direct mitigation measures as well as appropriate compensation packages.

247. There is an urgent key need to incorporate 'tunnelling impact management' as a part of the environmental management plan for HEPs. The plan should include requirements for monitoring springs, monitoring tunnel water ingress, conducting drawdown hazard analyses, participatory discussions with stakeholder and clear cut agreements of what and how criteria will be used for compensation or provision of alternative supplies. The issue is complex and appropriate methodologies are required to be carefully developed. Issues include the annual and seasonal variations in spring flows, parallel climate change impacts, assessment of the likely reductions in impacts once the tunnels are lined and the limitations of assessment techniques. The issue is extremely sensitive and is one of the main contentions of the communities. To properly address the problem requires an extremely professional approach involving significant level of study and management. The tunnelling impact management should be applied to completed, ongoing and planned schemes.

E. Ecological Impacts

248. There are three main impacts:

(i) Construction activities along the river stretch water increases sediment load posing threats to aquatic life. High sediment load also modifies the river bed transforming heterogeneous stony substrate into homogenous sandy substrates leading to extinction of many species. Low oxygen and high turbidity adversely affects the primary productivity of aquatic life; (ii) Obstruction of the fish movement by dams without provision of a fish pass usually decimates migratory fish stocks. This trend adversely affect people‟s livelihood who solely or partially dependent on fish for food; and (iii) Diversion of water and reduction of flows impacts the aquatic habitat and fish productivity.

249. There has been no comprehensive study or data to evaluate the exact impacts of the hydropower generation on the state‟s aquatic life over the years. The different interventions have different impacts on the fish fauna. For example the impoundment dams create a reservoir and the run-of-the-river projects divert the water into tunnels. The first alters the river into a reservoir but has

69 The projects; Khab, Jhangi-Thopan, Thopan-Powari, Shontong-Karcahm, Karcham Wangtoo, Nathpa-Jhakri, Rampur and Kol will only have a very short stretch of river outside tunnels. 70 Drawdown Hazard of Springs and Wells in Tunnelling; predictive model and verification Torri, Dematteis and Delle Paine 2007 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 59 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report the potential to commercially develop non-migratory fisheries. The second only hampers the migratory run and destroys the breeding grounds. Satluj basin has been impacted both ways as the whole of the river has been dammed with impoundment and ROR projects and whatever portion is left will be dammed soon.

250. Sediment from the construction is an issue and efforts are required to better control and enforce muck dumping. The river however has very high levels of sediment especially during the summer monsoons. An estimated 20 million MT of sediment enters the Bhakra reservoir annually; construction contributes a small part of this.

251. The environmental or ecological flow is the flow left in a river eco-system or released into it for the specific purpose of managing the condition of that ecosystem. Failure to maintain such flows may lead to decline in the health of water dependent ecosystem. Minimum environmental flow is a general term used to describe a flow required to maintain some feature of a river ecosystem. No simple figure can be given for the environmental flow requirement of a river. It is related to a number of factors such as hydrologic and biotic character of critical reaches, perceived sensitivity, desired state of the river and the uses to which river flow is put. For the Satluj and especially the tributaries the very steep bed slopes result in shallow water depths. It is extremely difficult to define the flow requirement to maintain the aquatic habitat. With increasing demands on water resources and growing concern for the aquatic environment new forms of analysis have been developed which have superceded the more basic hydrologic analysis which are no more rule of thumb assessments of statistical flows. Improved methods include the assessment of the specify velocity of flow and wetted perimeter (or width/depth ratio). In the rocky and very variable Satluj and tributary rivers; these methods are not easy to apply. The present environmental flow is defined at 15% of the inflow to the dams is not fully understood nor enforced. There is a need to ensure releases for environmental flow are better measured and recorded, including the provision of measurement devices. Independent Power Producers (IPP‟s) should be required to make public actual releases of environmental flow using display boards.

252. In recent years methodologies to assess environmental flow have improved to better incorporate ecological issues. Software packages have now been developed to support the assessment. International Water Management Institute (IWMI) have recently produced a software package to support the analysis. There remains however significant difficulties to quantify the ecological impacts and link these to what is considered an acceptable minimum flow.

253. The construction of Bhakra dam and reservoir in 1963 offered an opportunity for commercial fisheries at a very large scale. The reservoir has highest per unit fish production in large reservoirs for the last two decades in the country. Before the construction of the dam Mahseer was a migratory fish and its migration is affected by construction of Bhakra dam. The reservoir fishes (Silver carp) also migrate long distance to breed, it however now gets hampered with the construction of the new Kol dam in 2001. The dam has made breeding ground inaccessible to Silver carp which constitute a major fishery of Gobindsagar

254. The construction of Nathpa Jhakri HEP reduced the flow of the river and has already affected the riverine ecology. The river flow will be further reduced by execution of Rampur HEP and Karcham Wangtoo HEP. The diversion of the river into tunnels tends to render the riverbed dry or near dry for kilometers at stretch. The dams not only affect the migratory run but also removes the breeding grounds. The Baspa II HEP on the Baspa river is reported to have seriously affected the local fisheries and despite the efforts of the Fisheries department not much improvement is visible.

255. The government has made it mandatory for the Project authorities to obtain a „No Objection Certificate‟ from the fisheries department. The new projects have to prepare an Environment Management Plan (EMP) and secure government approval on that. The EMP needs to clarify precisely what remedial measures will be taken to ensure that minimum damage is done to the fishes and their natural habitat. Where the damage is inevitable, compensation has to be paid to the fisheries department. This money is to be utilized for the development of various fish farms and captive breeding. The compensation for the loss of fisheries began to be paid when the MOEF made IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 60 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report environmental clearance mandatory for specific kinds of projects71. The GOPH GOHP went a step further and imposed a type of fisheries cess (a tax for using the water of Himachal) on the micro and mini hydro projects in 2005. Rupees one lakh for one megawatt of power generation or one km of affected river stretch has been fixed in lieu of the development of fish farms or infrastructure development.

256. However, despite these directives, it has now been established that no amount of compensation can recoup loss of natural fisheries and the natural biota. But for the required development some balancing factors have to be added in the process to enhance capacity of existing fish farms and in establishing new farms where only a few breeds of fishes can be grown. But then the indigenous fish genre will be lost forever.

257. Unfortunately the developers/projects authorities pay the compensation in a manner which suggests paying compensation abjures them of all responsibilities. The provisions of 15 to 20 per cent water discharge, which is mandatory for the run-of-the-river projects, becomes difficult to implement in absence of strong monitoring mechanism. Majority of project locations, especially for the small, micro, and mini projects are in the interior areas, making it difficult to monitor the implementation of all remedial measures promised in the EMP.

258. The effect of developmental interventions on fresh water biodiversity is extreme, for in no other comparable set of habitats, have the complete faunal communities been wiped out so quickly by ill advised/applied management. Subsistence fisheries have seriously got affected as the fishes have started to decline in the streams and nallahs. The fish probably constituted one of the main sources of food and livelihood for the poor but it is neither documented nor cared for. Except for Govindsagar reservoir and upcoming Kol dam, no commercial and sport fisheries exist in the entire basin.

259. The immediate step is to properly enforce the 15% environmental flows, the requirement is clearly a part of the conditionalities for the scheme and there is no reason for non compliance. Investigation into re-assessing the adequacy of the 15% rule is more complicated and may not result in any significant improvement in the river ecology. It is difficult to see any direct ways to improve the main river fishery beyond enforcement of the rules.

260. Monitoring and assessment of aquaculture is important; if properly managed can provide alternative incomes. Options for stocking are quite low due to very high summer monsoon flows and low winter flows. Climate change will affect the hydrology with long term reductions in winter melt flow as well some increase in temperature; especially in the lower level tributary rivers.

F. Soil Erosion

261. Soil erosion due to the benching of all types of roads is widespread. Damage is also caused to the soil stability due to installation of transmission lines; this damage comes from the pylon base as well as the temporary access roads. Temporary roads rarely receive any attention, protection or planting and frequently do not recover and remain focal areas of erosion.

G. Muck Generation and Disposal

262. The volume of muck generated is a major problem for the dam builders. The ROR scheme involves less displacement and submergence but generate huge amounts of muck and debris. Disposing off the muck and debris often has serious environmental consequences, especially in fragile eco-systems of the Satluj valley. Muck is the material that is produced while digging tunnels and although some of the muck can be used for parts of the scheme construction much of it has to be disposed off. Muck disposal has become part of Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) and Environment Management Plan (EMP). The muck generated by the hydro projects is controlled by an authorised disposal plan. Other infrastructure projects are not subject to any plan and they generally dump the muck where ever possible.

71 The Ministry issued a notification under the „Environment Protection Act of 1986‟ in 1994. Since then any mega project has to seek clearance from the department of fisheries as well and it has to be compensated for the loss of fishes. The remedial measures have to be outlined in the plan itself. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 61 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

263. The EMP of any HEP is to have site specific engineering designs72 for scientific muck management including a swell factor73 of 45%. Dumping sites are demarcated according to the amount of muck estimated to be generated. And if the generated muck is more than estimations then new sites are demarcated (mostly forest or agricultural land). Dumping sites are required to have proper breast and crate walls (which need to be maintained regularly) in order to check the spillage of the muck down the slope and into the rivers. Muck has to be dumped at these sites in a way that 23- 30m thick layer is formed and the dumping sites have to be levelled and restored once filled to capacity. Then these sites have to be properly afforested with suitable plants. This is done so that the degradation which might occur due to the unscientific dumping of muck could be minimized.

264. The Hydro Power Policy 2006 of GOPH directs that that the company shall use such material for the project activities as may be found suitable for construction and the remaining material shall be allowed to be used by other development departments like PWD, DIPH etc. Indicatively the project authority use about 25% of the excavated material on the project activities, about 10% is to be lifted by other government agencies and private users; the balance 65% disposed off away from sites The balance muck shall be properly stacked and roller compacted or laid on slopes and treated to mix and match with the surrounding environs with least change in landscape.

265. Issues and impacts of muck dumping remain even on demarcated sites include: (i) the retention structures are frequently inadequately designed or constructed; (ii) requires to be maintained which is rarely implemented; and (iii) many structures are sited in the floodway of the main or tributary rivers and are liable to damage by flood flows.

266. There are issues of non adherence; cost factors and the ease of muck disposal into the rivers are relevant. Replanting is frequently done in haste, often with inadequate top soil or in the dry season and in many cases is unsuccessful.

267. Impacts of inappropriate muck disposal are significant and include choking of the natural drainage channels, change the course of rivers or nallahs resulting in erosion of banks and the riparian agricultural lands. Dumping of debris often creates new and artificial channels for rainwater further eroding the hills. Muck also clogs the canals „kuhl‟, which is main source of irrigation and drinking water. The muck also settles on the banks of the rivers and nallahs and disrupts the natural dispersion of alluvial soil into the adjoining agricultural fields. The increased deposition of debris on the riverbanks leads to changes in river hydrology and affects the fish fauna and micro-organisms. Muck is a mix of stones and boulder in it and when dumped on the slopes and without adequate top soiling does not allow any vegetation to survive and adversely affects regeneration of vegetative cover.

268. Responsibilities: It is the responsibility of the State Pollution Board (in the non forest areas) and the Forests department (in the forest area) to monitor the proper disposal of muck. The government over the years has become more vigilant towards the dumping and has started reviewing the situation at set intervals. The SPCB has also started a monthly review of the situation in all the major projects. It physically monitors the situation with the help of the photographs. Some new initiatives demonstrate the potential technical and social initiatives that can be applied; for example the muck management of Rampur project has recently won an environmental award74. HPPCL is presently

72 Different sites are identified for purpose of muck dumping both in uphill areas and downhill areas. The engineering designs are developed in such a manner that no muck is allowed to roll out in the natural drainage system of hill terrain or in the river bed. This necessitates the development of site specific engineering structures to suit the ambient. 73 Any solid matter on breaking tends to inflate in volumes depending upon the quality and type of matter. Generally the soil swell factor ranges between 25%--35%, but for the calculation of muck for the purpose of scientific dumping the outer limit of rock material i.e. 45% is taken so that adequate arrangements are made prior to muck generation. 74 ‘Partial reclamation work has started in DS –II where the project has adopted an ingenious method (called GEO Green Erosion Blanket) of applying top soil and then overlaying it with coir matting which is nailed to the ground. Thereafter the plantation is carried out. The coir not only holds the soil but also retains the moisture for longer periods than even soil does……….The success of this strategy is very visible: the slope is completely stabilized and the plants have taken off very well- the whole slope now looks green and pleasant.‟ Shukla Committee Report, pg no -18. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 62 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report constructing a cricket pitch as part of the muck dumping at the Integrated Kashang Hydro Electric Project.

1. Recommendations

269. There is a need to review muck disposal schemes in the basin. This includes the new planned schemes but also ongoing as well as completed schemes. Non compliance, shortcomings and lack of long term sustainability of existing muck sites should also be addressed.

270. Slow uptake of muck removal for other uses is partially due to the long procedures required by government departments to take on new financial commitments. It is recommended that HEPs provide free removal, placing and design support to any organization or person that is interested to obtain muck. HEPs could support the costs of necessary retention structures for community needs (schools, hospitals etc). Local government could usefully provide support to facilitate and publicize and coordinate this facility.

271. Muck disposal plans are required to be carefully planned, scientifically developed so that the disposal of muck in no way creates any hindrance to the natural drainage system. The site selection for muck dumping should be strategically processed in a manner that some kind of facility is created out of this waste. The following aspects should integrally constitute a muck dumping plan.

i) The very steep topography of the Satluj constricts muck dumping - much of the natural land is effectively unstable and adding more material reduces or eliminates any safety factors. With proper design, management and adequate investment and properly designed retentions structures; muck dumping impacts can be reduced, with potentials to benefit the communities by creating flat land for community amenity. ii) A thorough and participative survey of the area should be undertaken to identify the suitable places for creating facilities like parking lots, widening of roads, playground for schools, picnic spots etc. Consultation with local communities should be carried out to assess the possible sites for creating flat land for amenity or commercial use. Apportioning the additional costs for such work can be discussed with Government. iii) Proper slope stability and engineering studies are required, retention structures must be designed with adequate design life, swelling and potential instabilities from flood and rainfall must be fully accommodated. Dumping sites must be top soiled and planted- planting should be implemented only once the slopes have stabilised. iv) Dumping sites should, if possible, avoid the river banks; a minimum 5 meters set back from river banks is required. Existing and sites under construction require to be investigated to assess potential impacts from flood.

272. New methodologies and technologies should be investigated and applied to minimise the impacts and increase stabilities. Use of gabions with short life spans should only be used for very minor retentions.

H. Socio Economic Impacts

273. The level of disquiet and protest currently, against power projects is becoming an increasing issue. The protests have also started turning into virtual clashes in certain areas and have led to the 75 formation of “anti-dam organizations” . Both State and Central Governments are concerned and these pressures are affecting the ability to implement some of the planned projects. The power projects are steadily giving rise to a new category of affected people the „indirectly affected people‟.

75 There are two main groups functioning in Himachal Pradesh to safeguard its environment and biodiversity and fight against the over exploitation of natural resources. One is Himalaya Niti Abhiyan, a non registered voluntary organization formed in 2004, an offshoot of Himalaya Bachaoo Andolan of 1994. It was inspired by the Chipko Movement and its profounder Sunderlal Bahuguna. The main objective is to advocate for mountain specific developmental model and appropriate policies to support it and safeguarding of the livelihood of people based on natural resources. Another group is Him Lok Jagriti Manch, again a non registered voluntary organization formed in September 2008. It is a small intellectual group whose main objective is to create awareness amongst the people and the bureaucracy regarding the environmental violations and degradations. They also educate people regarding their natural rights viz a viz their natural surroundings. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 63 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

These are the people who neither come under the project affected area nor are being compensated for loss of any kind. But in reality are suffering because of general degradation in the environment and society e.g. loss or reduction in water sources, muck dumping in the forest area or in water sources, diversion of water, loss of fisheries, influx of outsiders bringing slow change in local culture, etc.

274. The projects have clearly brought benefits, roads, employment and money not only to the remote locations, but also huge revenues to the state exchequer. An air of prosperity now surrounds the project areas. But is this kind of development and revenue generation an end in itself? Can a fragile topography sustain so many dams on one river basin? Will the receding snow line and glacier melt from global warming upset the viability of projects in the coming years?

275. There is a major dilemma to balance the development of hydropower with increasing pressures to maintain a sustainable environment and protect the project affected villages and local communities. The HEPs now include a range of support measures for the affected communities including preference to employ labour from the state76. Environmental management plans and support for socio economic measures are now compulsory including packages of support for the affected families and communities. The level of participative planning and involvement of the communities has improved over the past decade, there is good evidence that that the methodologies to select sites has improved and the insistence of State and Central Governments has resulted in greater public consultation, better monitoring of environmental and social aspects of projects, improvements in resettlement policy and practices, as well as improved institutional capacity related to project identification, engineering and design.

276. The rate and scale of changes on the very vulnerable and sensitive area cannot however be underestimated. Despite this progress there remain significant concerns within the local communities and by the local administrations towards the social and environmental impacts.

1. Lippa Village Kinnaur

277. The scoping study team was requested to visit Lippa village which gives an example of the type of social issues occurring from hydropower development. A consultation was held in Lippa village. Lippa is one of the four villages in Kinnaur district, which will be affected through the construction of Integrated Kashang Project Stage II, III and IV (stage 1 will operate in the Kashang river in a separate catchment from Lippa) Lippa is situated near the left bank of Kerang (Teti) stream and is at an elevation of 2438m from the sea level.

278. The total population is 11,019, agriculture and horticulture are the main occupations and also the primary and most important source of income. Part of the area is served by a well-developed irrigation system with water channels drawn from the natural springs through the pipes. Forest the tributaries play major role in the community‟s day to day work. They depend largely on forests for fuel and fodder. As per the household survey carried out by the Kashang project authority, all the project affected people (PAP) go to the forest for collection of fuel wood and fodder.

279. Lippa and three other villages are contesting the scheme due to the potential impacts to the local ecology and their livelihoods which will be caused by the diversion of Kerang (Teti) khad to the Kashang Khad to augment the generation capacity of Integrated Kashang project.

280. The reasons for protest as described by the residents in stakeholder consultations include:

(i) During community consultations residents revealed that the area is ecologically and geologically very fragile and prone to landslips and soil erosion. It was considered that the blasting for tunnelling and road construction will generate vibrations which might lead to increased landslides and environmental degradation. It has been observed in the past that the land above the tunnels of hydro project start to dry up and agriculture and horticulture suffer. (Nathpa HEP, Rampur HEP, Karcham Wangtoo HEP and projects in other basins are all facing similar problems). Spring water, the main source for drinking

76 A MOU from the GoHP requires 70% of employees to be from the state-the overall estimate is that 30000 staff from the state would be given employment from the HEPs. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 64 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

and irrigation (almost 80%) may start to dry up and will affect the water availability. (It has been observed that the construction and diversion of river affects the natural water sources and either their supply dwindles or they start to dry up). (ii) Forest land to be cleared would include the rare Chilgoza trees. This would result in incremental economic loss to the community. This species cannot be compensated for easily as its regeneration is very slow. (The poor history of CAT and CA does not assure the villagers. They are convinced that both the programmes will not be able to either mitigate the adverse impacts or recreate the lost ecology). The depletion in forest cover will result in increased soil slips, erosion and landslides. (iii) The main concern of residents is the threat posed to the Lippa village itself. The village is sited on the confluence of two khads; the Kerang (Teti) and Pegar. The Pegar khad originates high up in the mountains and is fed by glaciers; the Khad carries very heavy silt load especially during the monsoon. Silt, rock and stones carried by the Pegar khad are deposited at the confluence which is relatively flat. The silt gets accumulated right in front of the village and is periodically flushed away be the high currents of Kerang (Teti) khad. (iv) Under the integrated Kashang project, it is proposed to divert this Kerang Khad to Kashang Khad to augment the generation. After the Kerang khad is diverted the villagers fear that there will be insufficient water left in the khad to wash away the debris accumulated by the Pegar Khad. This accumulated silt and debris could eventually prove catastrophic for the very existence of the Lipa village itself. (v) Other complaints about the project include: (i) the diversion of Kerang khad may affect the flora and fauna downstream and the moisture level of the soil; (ii) there is a possible impact to Lippa-Asrang wild life sanctuary; (iii) there is an ancient cave temple of Lord Guru Padam Sambhawa about 500 meters away from the Stage II project site at Lappo, it has great religious sanctity for the local people and they fear that it will get damaged during the excavation of the tunnel for the project; (iv) two natural lakes namely „Ronnam Sorang‟ and „Urang Tso‟ just at the top of the project site might start sinking due to blasting and tunnelling; and (v) There will be adverse impact on rare medicinal plants.

2. Status to Date

281. The EMP for the Integrated Kashang project has been prepared by the research team of Himachal Forest Research Institute (HFRI) (). After going through the minutes of their consultation meeting with the Conservator CAT plan and the environment specialist of HPPCL, it is clear that the authorities were aware of most of the environmental issues pertaining to Lippa village. They have also addressed them in the EMP.

282. There after HPSEB, HPPCL and the HFRI organised a public hearing meetings on 17 October 2008, 18 February 2009 and 28 May 2009 to explain the project to the villagers and record their objections. All the aforesaid issues were raised and the authorities answered them satisfactorily.

283. Villagers feel that the authorities are not sensitive to their demands, as they are going ahead with the construction of Stage III without resolving the issues surrounding the Stage II. (The Gram Pradhan and the villagers claim that no FCA has been granted to this project by the GOI and neither have they received any clearance from PESA).

284. Their demands: (i) control the floods and build up of sediment in Peger khad for 10 years and if successful, then divert the water and (ii) alternative schemes to bring in the water for drinking and irrigation schemes should be provided for before the diversion. Figure 19 shows Lippa village with the Pegar Khad on the right which is dry, significant sediment accumulation can be seen. The Kerang (Teti Khad) is shown on the left. Houses on the right bank of Pegar are very vulnerable to flash floods which impact on the banks, the floods carry significant quantities of water, rock and mud at high velocity IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 65 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 19 Lippa Village

3. HPPCL

285. HPPCL has planned elaborate EMP and rehabilitation plans. They propose to do elaborate CAT and CA along with green belt development, proper muck disposal and alternate water schemes. The EIA identifies that 'no impact on groundwater foreseen as the tunnels are to be lined watertight and more than 150–200m deep below ground surface for Stage-I & IV tunnels and up to 1,400m for Kerang–Kashang link tunnel. The water sources must be documented and in case of damage. The project proponents have committed to restore the same or make alternative arrangements'. HPPCL will install instrumentation which will detect any vibrations from blasting and will make good any damage to monuments, or housing.

286. Only about 630 trees will be affected and of these only about 60% would actually be felled-most of these are linked to the construction of the access road. The EMP provides provision for the raising of plantations of local indigenous species. The lakes are non perennial and more than 1km from the project and would not be affected.

287. The project would only divert water from the Kerang (Teti Khad) during low and medium flows. During flood flow the intake would be closed to stop high levels of silt to enter. Thus flood flows would be unaffected and would allow flushing of the debris near the village. The project has agreed to provide hard protection around the village as well as a commitment to remove the shoal of debris at the confluence point by release of flushing discharge or mechanical means; this would continue during the operation phase.

288. The HFRI and HPPCL maintain that initially villagers were convinced with their response and were able to allay their apprehensions but subsequently politics and vested interests took a toll on logic and rationality. HPPCL maintains that proper procedures for consultation were followed. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 66 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

4. Conclusions

289. Lippa village is an example of indirectly affected village and people. No land from the village itself is being acquired (some orchards will be, but at some distance) and not a single person is being displaced. There remains quite a significant level of protest in a unified and systematic manner.

290. The impact on the natural sources of water, especially with the diversion of tributaries and drying up of springs, has become one of the biggest fears for the local communities as these are their life lines and main source of irrigation. The people in the Satluj basin have had some bad experience of the projects and are fully aware of past experience of governmental negligence on environmental degradations as well as slow progress of mitigation measures especially the delays in implementing the CAT plans. Although the geology is granite with lower risk of impact the EIA did not fully address the possible loss during the construction period. The application of tunnelling impact management including implementing of a 'drawdown hazard index study' would help define the possible impacts on springs and may help allay the fears of the villagers.

291. Although the risk of spring loss is considered quite low, a fully agreed contractual agreements between the developer and the community is required should any spring loss occur. Paying funds to DIPH to provide alternative water sources have not always been forthcoming. The mitigating project can take many years and may be inferior to the existing situation. HPPCL has now committed to directly restore any loss of springs or make alternative arrangements. This direct undertaking by the developer to compensate financially for any loss or a direct obligation to build operate and maintain any new water system provides a more water tight approach than reliance on DIPH to make good any damage.

292. In a state, where hydro projects are now spread all over and issues of settlement still pending even after many years (Bhakra and Pong Dams), any call to ignite spirit of sacrifice among local people is misplaced, particularly when these ventures are commercial. They know that only pre-project bargaining can watch their interests; poorly coordinated compensation on other projects allows communities to know the potentials and high stakes of bargaining.

293. People, who are not losing land or livelihood, do not have direct claim to any tangible package; hence, it is important for the project authorities to win the goodwill of these indirectly affected people. They must try to partner them in local development and make visible mitigating measures to protect environmental, social and cultural degradation of their villages. Loss of goodwill must be addressed locally and regionally. It is believed that the proposed LADF fund, which allows for a permanent 1% of electricity sold going towards community projects, can help alleviate some of the alienation of the local communities to the projects. The direct involvement of the IPP in supporting mitigation measures has some advantages over paying the government to implement the mitigation. The CAT plan at Kol Dam was directly implemented by the developer and is considered to have been a success.

294. Modern day technology coupled with improved participative and integrated planning and monitoring can produce desired results provided there is direct connect between the local and project authorities and indirectly affected people.

VII. INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK

A. Introduction

295. Himachal Pradesh came into being as a part „C‟ State of the Indian Union on 15th April, 1948 by integration/merger together of 30 big and small hill States. Himachal Pradesh continued to exist as a Union Territory till the conferment of statehood on 25th January, 1971. Presently, the administrative setup constitutes 12 districts namely, Kangra, Hamirpur, Mandi, Bilaspur, Una, Chamba, Lahaul and Spiti, Sirmaur, Kinnaur, Kullu, Solan and Shimla. The State administrative capital is Shimla. The population density of the state is lower than the national average. The density is distributed unevenly among the districts due to peculiar topography and climate conditions. The density is high in the south-west part while it is very less in the north-east part of the state. The status of urbanisation in the state is very low i.e. 9.79% of the population living in the urban area. The low urbanisation is due to hostile and unfavourable conditions for the larger settlement. The functional characteristics of major urban centres are tourism industry developed as hill stations. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 67 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

296. The economic status of Himachal Pradesh is significant. The per capita income is higher than the national average. Agriculture contributes over 20% of net domestic products and is main source of income and employment generation. Over 66% of population is depends on agriculture. Tourism industry has a large potential in Himachal Pradesh because of its scenic beauty.

297. It is important to note that power generation, which was 245 MU (mega units) in 1980-81, touched the level of 1262 MU in 1990-91. The electricity generation process got a setback in the year 1993-94, when it dipped to a level of 976 MU due to the blockage in the Satluj River at Bhaba which brought the generation process to a halt. Thereafter, the generation went up so rapidly that it touched the highest level in the year 2008-09. The shortfall in overall generation during 1999-2000 to 2006-07 is mainly due to less water availability at power stations. During the year 2008-09, total electricity generation from own projects was 2075 MU.

B. State Water Policy

298. The State Water Policy (SWP) is comprehensive and detailed. It recognises that water is a part of a larger ecological system and vital to the essential environment needs management in the most optimal manner so that consumption and development needs are met.

299. The policy reflects concern about water quality which largely stems from the untreated or inadequately treated industrial effluents and sewage flowing into `nallahs‟ and rivers or affecting the surface and groundwater. The State Water Policy intends to promote a participatory approach by involving local communities and stakeholders, including women, in the management of water resources. Water Users' Associations and the Iocal bodies such as municipalities and gram Panchayats are aimed to be involved in the operation, maintenance and the management of water related infrastructure with a view to eventually transfer the management of such facilities to the user groups/local bodies. The policy also explicitly states that private sector participation may also be encouraged wherever feasible in planning, development and management of the water resources. The policy also aims at watershed management through extensive soil conservation, catchment-area treatment, preservation of forests and increasing the forest cover and the construction of check-dams and trenching should be promoted.

300. The water allocation priorities in the policy are listed as: “Drinking water Irrigation Ecology/ Afforestation/biodiversity/tourism/Agro-industries/Hydro-power/Non-agro-based industries Navigation” and other uses.

301. The policy also aims at an “integrated and multi-disciplinary approach” to the planning, formulation, clearance and implementation of projects, including catchment area treatment and management, environmental and ecological aspects, the rehabilitation of affected people and command area development.

302. The policy further defines projects for hydropower generation involving impounding of water; adequate water shall be released round the year to meet the needs of downstream users. The sustainability evaluation of the Project shall determine “Environmental Discharge” to be prescribed for the Project, which shall not be less than 15% of the available discharge at any given time. In forest areas the extraction of water shall be planned keeping in view the needs of the flora and fauna of the area.

303. Environmental Impact Assessment of major and medium scale projects are to be carried out by independent agencies. It is important to note that the policy envisions the principle of 'polluter pays' in the management of polluted water. The policy also contains several provisions for effective management of water resources including hydrology and water resources assessment including snow, rivers and lakes, water harvesting and conservation, water quality, recycling and water reuse, improved water management, sedimentation, longevity and safety of structures including seismicity, crops and cropping systems.

304. Along with the water policy there are several Acts of which the Fisheries Act is given as an example. The Himachal Pradesh Fisheries Act, 1976 prohibits and regulates the erection and use of fixed engines; the construction, temporary or permanent of weirs, dams and bunds; and killing of fish by diversion of natural waters, and Punishment for destruction of fish by explosives and in cases IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 68 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report where there is destruction of fish by poisoning water. It also specifies the maximum amount acceptable as compensation.

C. Water Sector Institutions

305. The main water institutions are described in Table 18 below

Table 18 Water Sector Institutions Nr Sectors Responsibilities/ Issues 1. Hydropower Created in 2009, under the administrative control of the Department of MPP (Directorate of & Power. The main objective of the directorate of energy include safety of Energy) hydropower projects, quality control and management of water flows and discharge, issues concerning hydropower project‟s safety and management of water flows and discharges have assumed critical importance because of the recurrence of floods, earthquake, avalanches, glaciers, tunnelling, piping terrorism. 2 Agriculture Impart latest technologies, timely supply of inputs, education of farmers in (Department of economic irrigation use, soils and water, pest management, diversified Agriculture) farming and marketing, create minor & tank irrigation (<50ha). 3 Horticulture Diversification of farming systems, promotion of environmentally friendly (Department of farming, create conditions and infrastructure to improve farm incomes, use Horticulture) of technologies for optimum utilisation of potential, preparation of participative planning.

4 Fisheries To increase fish production, develop reservoir fishery, fish breeding for seed (Department of stocking in reservoirs and rivers, to promote reservoir and lake fish Fisheries) protection, promote game fishery, promote aquaculture including rainbow trout at high altitude and create employment. 5. Irrigation and Drinking water systems, sewerage systems, irrigation larger than 50ha and Water Supply flood protection. (DIPH) schemes > Management is bureaucratic and centralised; efficient and flexible 50 ha management is required to ensure sustainability. Handover of operation of schemes is recommended.

DIPH lacks parallel support for agriculture in irrigation schemes. 6. Department of Afforestation, timber distribution, grazing, fuel wood, watershed Forests management forest harvesting. Now following new directions to support Joint Forest community needs and conservation. Management (with Panchayat) 7 Soil and Water Department of Rural Development: Implementation of different rural Conservation development and poverty alleviation programmes. Water programs include (Department of water shed development programmes, Desert development, integrated Rural wasteland development. Many project funded through the Mahatma Gandhi Development, National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA). Agriculture and Forests described Soil and Water Conservation and rainwater harvesting is one of the main above) adaptation mechanisms. The needs and likely levels of investment required to meet the targets for climate change adaptation are significant. The importance of soil and water conservation would appear to justify as separate Department or Directorate of Soil and Water Conservation to better coordinate and plan SWC activities. 4 Hydropower Power generation and execution of hydro projects with a mission for uninterrupted power to all consumers.

HIMURJA is responsible for all micro-hydro schemes less than 5MW.

The board appears to be primarily a development agency and lacks the mandate to control and manage the myriad of hydropower producers. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 69 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Nr Sectors Responsibilities/ Issues 5 Environment To improve effectiveness of environmental management, protect vulnerable ecosystems and enhance sustainable development. 9. Rural The State Rural Development Department is engaged in the implementation Development of different rural development and poverty alleviation programmes. Development Blocks are the pivot for planning and implementation of various rural development schemes. Projects include soil and water conservation and implementation of the MNREGA activities.

D. Cross Cutting Institutions

306. A number of cross sector organisations exist with the remit to are designed to support integration.

1. Himachal Pradesh Water Management Board

307. In August 2009, a State Water Management Board was set up to ensure the synergies of line department are coordinated as well as coordinating with the Central Ministries. The purpose and constitution of the board which is directly under the Chief Minister is to ensure coordinated efforts of all the government departments and unison in functioning with development of a multidisciplinary approach to the management of the water resources. Another initiative is the recently established Forum for Hydro Power Producers and other stakeholders in the Sutlej basin. The forum has the remit to better coordinate activities of the power producers and other stakeholders and actively support solving issues in relation to management of the Sutlej river. The Hydro power producers‟ forum, the board and other associations may lack the capacities to meet the needs of effective water resources management without good coordination and integrated planning by the line agencies. To date the board has meet twice in August 2009 and September 2010.

2. State Planning Board

308. During the year (2003-04), the State Planning Board (SPB) has been constituted under the chairmanship of the chief minister, Himachal Pradesh by nominating the official/non-official members to assist the state government in formulation/review of the state‟s five year and annual plans and also evolve strategy for the planned economic development of the State. Besides drawing the plan priorities for the State, in the light of overall National objectives, it also assesses the man-power and financial resources and their organisational and institutional capabilities. Importantly, it also reviews the working of Government Corporations, Boards and suggests means for their improvement and evaluates the various projects/corporations according to the directions of chairman.

3. Department of Environment

309. This department is the nodal agency for according all environmental clearances of the various projects. Besides clearances, the department also exercises all the powers vested under all acts and rules pertaining to protection of environment and control of pollution. The structure is shown in Figure 20 below.

310. Among the main functions of the department is to consider the validity and facts contained in the EIA and monitoring of EMP prepared by the Project Proponents.

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 70 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 20 DEST Structure

311. The department also acts as investigation agency in collection, preparation and dissemination of “Environmental Inventory” on the State Resources; monitoring and assessment of impact of development of projects on environment; dovetailing of the environmental concerns in the development processes through Environmental Planning to ensure environmentally compatible land use and ecosystem specific conservation and sustainable use of all resources. The department advises the Government on the environmental issues and examines the cases of EIA and recommend the same to the GOI. It has a complete control of SEIA, MC, SEIAA and SEAC under the EIA mechanism.

312. Importantly, the department monitors implementation of environmental safeguards as specified by the GOI at the time of environment clearance to the various project proponents in the state. It also coordinates various agencies of the state government, which are involved in environment protection and pollution control such as H.P. State Environment Protection and the state pollution control board. The department deals with all matters relating to the environmental litigation with respect to aforesaid rules and regulation and Acts. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 71 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

313. State Level Environment Impact Assessment Authority (SEIAA) and the State Expert Appraisal Committee (SEAC) constituted by a notification of the MOEFMOEF, in 2006 and a year later the GOI has also notified the same under the recommendation of the State. It is apparent that the department as well as the SEAC has sweeping powers and authority to ensure projects planning, implementation and outcomes confirm to the environmental standards prescribed from time to time.

314. The Himachal Pradesh Pollution Control Board (HPCB) is a nodal agency in the administrative structure of the State Government, for the planning, promotion, co-ordination and overseeing the implementation of environmental programs. It was about three decades now that the foundation of the current direction on environment protection was laid and a legislative base initially formed at the national level to protect the environment from the adverse impacts of rapidly expanding industrial society. In a way the Board accepts that the legislative base‟s substantial expansion in the subsequent period was primarily necessitated by the agglomeration and magnification of the problems resultant to the development for outpacing the capabilities to resolve them. Indeed it was good to note that there has been a constant policy and legislative reviews and making suitable amendments to protect from environmental degradation. The principal activities undertaken by HPCB PCB consist of prevention & control of pollution, protection of environment, in the framework of following legislations.

4. Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB)

315. Since most of the waters are used downstream of the state and there are many stakeholders for the water, the allocation of water is as per the Indus Water Treaty 1960 which allocates all the water of three eastern rivers namely the Sutlej, the Beas and the Ravi to India for exclusive use. A master plan was drawn to harness the potential of these rivers for providing assured irrigation, power generation and flood control. Bhakra and Beas projects form major part of the plan, and were established as a joint-venture of the erstwhile states of Punjab and Rajasthan.

316. The functions include the management of the Bhakra Nangal project, Beas project Unit-I (Beas Satluj Link project) and Beas project Unit II (Pong Dam) in Northern India and regulation of supply of water from Satluj, Ravi and Beas to the States of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. The Board also regulates the supply of power generated from Bhakra Nangal and Beas projects.

317. The role of the board is quite wide and includes, energy generation, and management support to the partner states and allocation of and management of water between the states. The percentage of sharing of the water between Punjab is 58%, Haryana 32% and Rajasthan 10%.

318. The BBMB is in the process of setting up Real time Data Support System (RTDSS) for better management of reservoir. The RT-DSS will be backed up state of the art real time data acquisition most of which will be installed in Himachal Pradesh. The system will be based on a major upgrade and extension of the present manual system. For the Satluj an memorandum of understanding (MOU) of data sharing between the different hydropower producers has been obtained. The BBMB will conduct analysis of the data including modelling; rainfall runoff modelling, snow melt runoff modelling, snowmelt forecast modelling and inflow forecast modelling etc. Weather forecast modelling (short medium and long range will be obtained by BBMB from the National Centre for Medium Term Forecasting in Noida (NCMRWF). The forecast received from NCMRWF will be input into various models which will provide inflows estimates in the Satluj and Beas rivers. Based on these analysis the RTDSS will provide flood forecast for the Beas and Satluj rivers which will be of significant importance to the Bhakra reservoir operations as well as advance information of pending floods which can be used by the hydropower producers and local administrations to support timely action against floods. This data is meant to be shared among various members. There are 9 members on the board which meets every month.

319. Of the total waters, snowmelts accounts for 50% and rainfall the rest 50% of the water to Sutlej. In Beas, however, snowmelt accounts only for 25% of total water. BBMB has also undertaken sediment study with NIH Roorkee which is ongoing. It is understood that BBMB operates a complicated procedure for water storage and allocation between the states as some portion of the water is snow melt and others are dependent on rainfall. There are two distinct period for water supplies: 21st September to 20th June known as the depleting period and 21st may to 20th September the filling period. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 72 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

320. BBMB potentially can play an important role in supporting the wider interstate management of the Satluj river. It, however, has some conflicts of interest that needs to be addressed. The issues of BBMB dumping silt in the forest areas of Mandi and the pending legal case being drawn up by the Department of Forests, GOHP Forest, Himachal Pradesh is an example of the difficulty of combining the role of water manager and developer. The BBMB requires separating its resource management functions from its role as an operator.

E. Integration of Water Issues

321. The need for better coordination between the water agencies has been frequently raised by the government departments and non government stakeholders; the need for an apex nodal agency to coordinate water resources planning was widely seen as an important requirement. The government has already made some important steps in this direction through the establishment of the State Water Management Board. The establishment of a new higher level water resources agency, with a remit to coordinate the line agencies provides an option but may not be able to get effective cooperation and support from line agencies. Three areas are identified where better coordination and integration of activities is required: (i) integrated water resources; (ii) coordination of agriculture and horticulture and (iii) integrated catchment management.

322. Integrated Water resources: The lack of a single water management agency is of concern. Competing and conflicting demands on water resources requires a single department take on a coordinating role. The role would relate to the mapping, monitoring and hydrological assessments of the various water uses. The Hydrology II Project supported by the World Bank aims at improving existing systems and developing an integrated and comprehensive data collection and information system for the whole state. The Hydrological Information System will be for use for all water users. The project started in 2006 will continue for six years. The project will include river gauging, groundwater observation wells, hydro meteorological sites, water quality laboratories, data centres, data management, computer packages and communication facilities. The Hydrology project is working with DIPH as the nodal agency as well as other line agencies. Of concern is the lack of skilled technical staff in DIPH and structural budget to take on the management after completion of the project. There is a proposal under discussion for the establishment of a Hydrologic Information Centre/Data Bank to be organised through the DIPH and funded by the hydropower producers.

323. Proposed Integrated Water Management Unit within DIPH: It is proposed that the present planning and hydrology sections within the DIPH could be combined, expanded and strengthened with a new mandate and skills to become a “Integrated Water Management Unit”, leaving the remainder of the DIPH to specialise in its traditional role of irrigation and public health. The new 'water management organisation' would include a role in guiding the planning organisations about issuing of licences and permits. Issuing of licenses and permits would be taken by the proposed water regulator

324. Coordination of Agriculture and Horticulture: Most; most famers have mixed farms cropping food crops, vegetables, orchards, livestock and dairy. Promotion of mixed farming opens opportunities for better returns and reduces vulnerabilities to climate and rainfall irregularities and other agricultural risks. Government support mechanisms would be more effective if agricultural support could be better integrated; this could be better achieved by closer integration or merging of the Departments of Agriculture and Horticulture and Animal Husbandry; this would allow farmers to access integrated extension support through a „one stop shop‟.

325. Coordinated Catchment Management: T;he very steep and complex catchments require a move towards integrated catchment management. Catchment works including forestry, soil and water conservation and flood protection are presently fragmented under the auspices of Departments of Forests, Agriculture, Rural Development and DIPH. Other departments including the Roads departments and hydropower as well as Punjab State would benefit from the management of the catchments

F. Hydro Power

326. In 2006, Himachal Pradesh formulated a Hydro Power Policy, which encourages the state to develop as a “Hydro-Power State” of the country and to provide an affordable, reliable and quality power to the consumers round the clock, throughout the year, create avenues for employment to its IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 73 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report residents and at the same time mitigate the social, economic and environmental impact. The „Power Policy‟ 2006 aims to have an operational capacity of about 15,000MW out of the identified power potential including promotion of small Projects up to 2.00MW capacities which are exclusively reserved for the bonafide Himachalies and cooperative Societies of local population. The IPP are to be allotted Hydro-Electric Projects for the implementation in private sector on Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT) basis by inviting Global bids, for the projects of capacity above 5MW. The policy states that the bidders would be required to quote a fixed upfront of Rs. 20.00 lakh per MW capacity of the project and „Additional Free Power‟ at a uniform rate in all three time bands of royalty charges during the operation period of the project to the GOHP over and above the royalty charges of 12% , 18% and 30% of the deliverable energy up to 12 years, next 18 years and balance agreement period beyond 30 years from scheduled commercial operation date /synchronization of first generating unit whichever is earlier, in lieu of surrender of the potential site.

327. Interestingly, GOHP reserves the right of equity participation up to 49% on selective basis in the above projects. There are other important features of the policy that include clauses for the companies to provide employment to Himachalies, in respect of all the unskilled/skilled staff and other non- executives for execution, operation and maintenance of the project.

328. The compensation package for the development of hydro power by IPP also include making a provision of 1.5% of final cost of the project towards Local Area Development Fund (LADF), the activities of which shall be financed by the project itself. Further, in order to protect the aquatic life and the water rights of local inhabitants as well as environment in general, the policy requires release of a minimum flow of 15% immediately downstream of the diversion structure of the project. To meet out the evacuation of power from projects under construction, the State government has set up a separate Transmission Corporation (HPTCL). The Corporation has prepared a Master Plan for evacuation of power from various river basins involving the expenditure of Rs 4667 crore.

329. It is obvious that this sector is of great importance to the state and has an evolved policy framework. Evidently, this sector also has cross cutting interests with many other sectors in the state like for instance, water, agriculture, roads, environment to name a few. However, we observe that the institutions, like in many other states in India, are basically crafted based on administrative requirements rather than to facilitate a coordinated approach.

1. Directorate of Energy

330. Under the Government order of 2009, a new “Directorate of Energy” was created under the administrative control of the Department of MPP & Power. The main objective of the directorate of energy includes: safety of hydropower projects, quality control and management of water flows and discharge, issues concerning hydropower project‟s safety and management of water flows and discharges have assumed critical importance because of the recurrence of floods, earthquake, avalanches, glaciers, tunnelling, piping terrorism. Directorate of Energy shall prepare safety regulations and guidelines and prepare safety management manual with respect to the projects being executed by various developers on the lines of International Commissions of Large Dams (ICOLD) and other hydro power countries like Canada, US, etc. The authority shall conduct continued surveillances on safety requirements right from the project inception including: (i) monitoring and access to quality of construction and designs (ii) compliance with normal operation and emergency preparedness; (iii) undertake periodic safety and management audit; (iv) ensure dam safety assessment; (v) prepare regulatory environment and ensure dam owners accountability; (vi) to monitor the releases downstream of the diversion and ensure availability of minimum flow of water downstream requirements; (vii) shall impose fines/penalties for violations as may be prescribed by the government; and (vi) resolve the inter project disputes.

331. Empowerment: The directorate is empowered to (i) issue TEC clearance for projects up to 500 crore; (ii) allotment of projects to the private sector; (iii) to secure maximum revenue generation the GOHP has authorized Directorate of Energy to sale power share on behalf of the government.

332. Role to Protect the Environment:; to promote subsidised use of free power address the problem of ecological imbalance and environmental degradation. The subsidies being provided by the department of Civil Supplies and Forests etc. shall be gradually phased out and the corresponding amount shall be provided as subsidy to the consumers for the procurement of such gadgets of Non- IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 74 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report conventional energy sources at affordable prices by the state government upto 50% of the cost. The state government shall also avail the incentives being provided by the Department of Non- conventional Energy Sources, GOI to harness other energy alternatives like solar, wind, bio-mass, agro-residue etc. The environmental degradation can be considerably checked by development of the small HEPs which are deemed eco-friendly.

2. Hydropower Agencies

333. Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board (HPSEB) was created in 1971, for investigations and execution of various hydro-electric projects, and transmission and distribution of power in the state. SEBHPSEB while contributing its share on surveys, investigations, preparation of DPR‟s generation, transmission and distribution, it has constituted two Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) Himachal Pradesh Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd. (HPJVNL) during June 2003 and Pabbar Valley Power Corporation (PVPC) during 2004 for execution of hydro-electric schemes.77 Both these corporations are to function on commercial lines and would provide 12% free power to the state like other project under central and private sectors.

334. Himachal Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (HPERC) a statutory organization established in 2000 under the electricity regulatory commission act 1998. Projects aggregating 8500MW installed capacity are at various stages of executing under State (through HPSEB), private, and central/joint sectors for commissioning during 10th and 11th five year plans.

335. The power projects presently executed or being executed by CPSUs, 12% free power is given to the state throughout the agreement period. From the schemes allotted to IPPs, at present 12% free power is given to the state for the first twelve years and 18% for the next twenty eight years. After 40 years, the project is to be transferred to the state free of cost. Under the Draft Power Policy 1.5% of the project cost is being made mandatory to be utilized for Socio-economic development of the local area through LADF. Projects having installed capacity 5MW to 100MW will be awarded through MOU route, whereas the projects exceeding 100MW will be assigned to the private sector on International Competitive Bids route.

336. HP Power Transmission Corporation Limited (HPPTCL) was established on 11, September, 2008 with Chief Secretary, GOHP as its Chairperson. It has been entrusted the work of formulation/updating and Execution of Transmission Master Plan of the State for strengthening of Transmission Network and Evacuation of Power from upcoming HEPs. Among its major entrusted projects. The Intra-state transmission master plan for evacuation of Power and Load Growth (to be implemented by 2013-14) has been budgeted as worth Rs. 4667 Crore. The key tasks of the corporation are to: (i) plan, operate and manage the extra high voltage, high voltage and medium voltage transmission lines; (ii) manage the financial operations of buying and selling power and (iii) plan and coordinate the power systems including generation, transmission, load dispatch centres.

337. Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited (SJVNL): a public sector undertaking, the SJVNL (formerly Nathpa Jhakri Power Corporation Limited (NJPC) was incorporated in 1988 as a joint venture of the GOI and the GOHP to plan, investigate, organize, execute, operate and maintain Hydro-electric power projects. The Nathpa Jhakri HEP(1500 MW) was the first project undertaken by SJVN for execution. In addition to the financial assistance from the World Bank, SJVN has also been financed as loan by a Consortium of European Banks, the Power Finance Corporation and various domestic commercial banks.

338. Himachal Pradesh Energy Development Agency (HIMURJA); is an autonomous body registered under Societies Registration Act 1860. It was established in February 1989 by GOHP under the Chairmanship of the Chief Minister. HIMURJA promotes and popularises various renewable energy technologies also. Small hydro programme up to 5MW was transferred to HIMURJA from HPSEB in 1994. It is understood that HIMURJA needs financial capital and that some investors are using Himachalis as a front for investment. It is apparent that HIMURJA finds it difficult to control such

77 Pabbar Valley Power Corporation is no more with HPSEB and stands merged with HPPCL since February, 2010. As such the 111 MW Sawra Kuddu HEP is now being executed by HPPCL IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 75 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report investments. It is also keen to diversify in to other non-conventional energy areas including solar power.

339. Himachal Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (HPPCL) was incorporated as corporation in 2006. The objectives are to plan, promote and organize the development of all aspects of hydroelectric power on behalf of GOHP and HPSEB, . The GOHP has a 60%, and HPSEB, a 40% shareholding in HPPCL. It is entrusted with a target of achieving 3000MW power generating capacity by March 2017 and 5000MW by the year 2022. Towards achieving this target HPPCL is engaged with development of several power projects in various parts of the state with a total projected capacity of more than 1000MW. HPPCL is a fast upcoming power generating utility with all the technical and organizational capabilities at par with other generating companies like NTPC/SJVNL/NHPC. Efforts are afoot to further strengthen the respective departments with professionals of proven credentials and qualified technical manpower. Like HIMURJA, HPPCL also intends to diversify its power development activities in other areas like thermal, solar power etc.

3. Central Power Agencies

340. Ministry of Power, GOI established in1992, the Ministry is primarily responsible for the development of electrical energy in the country. The ministry is concerned with perspective planning, policy formulation, processing of projects for investment decision, monitoring of the implementation of power projects, training and manpower development and the administration and enactment of legislation in regard to thermal, hydro power generation, transmission and distribution.

341. NHPC Limited (formerly National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Limited) has been developing hydro-power projects throughout the country and in Himachal Pradesh in particular. NHPC Limited has already commissioned three projects, viz. Baira Siul (180MW), Chamera Stage – I (540MW) and Chamera Stage – II (300MW). Three more projects, viz. Parbati Stage – II (800MW), Parbati Stage – III (520MW) and Chamera Stage – III (231MW) are under active construction stage.

342. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is a statutory organization originally constituted under the repealed Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948 and substituted of the Electricity Act, 2003. The functions and duties of the Authority include some of the important functions very relevant to water resources.

4. Forum of Hydro Power producer in Satluj Basin (HPPF)

343. The HPPF consists of members of Hydro Power Producers of Satluj basin who have agreed to cooperate under a “Five Point Programme” as hereunder to achieve common goals and objectives for harnessing the hydro-electric potential of Satluj basin in a eco-friendly manner and to ensure the development of the area including the welfare of the people. The main aim is to pursue eco-friendly energy development and to evolve integrated CAT plan CAT for the Satluj basin. It also plans for comprehensive operations of power stations in the Satluj Basin for operation, optimized utilization of run-off and to pool the expertise to tackle eventualities of operation outages due to floods or mishaps. There are currently ten members of the forum; SJVNL SJVNL, BBMB, BBMB , NTPCNTPCL, HPSEB, HPSEBM/s Jai Prakash Hydro Power Ltd, M/s Himachal Sorang Power Ltd, M/s Nuziveedu Seeds Ltd., HPPCL, HPPTCL, M/s Yangthang Power Ventures Ltd.

344. The HPPF is currently seeking representation in State CAMPA and has also made a request for permanent representation in watershed society of Satluj basin. It regularly takes up environment issues relating to the development of HEP‟s. In fact, the environmental issues relating to HEP‟s are of great concern. In order to look after these and to plan and coordinate the projects, there are various bodies in the state and at the GOI levels.

5. Special Corporations and Boards

345. Over and above, the main line departments there are special purpose vehicles which has considerable autonomy both in functions and performance like the Himachal Pradesh Tourism Development Corporation Ltd., Himachal Pradesh State Forest Corporation Ltd, Himachal Pradesh General Industries Corporation, Himachal Pradesh Horticulture Produce Marketing & Processing Corporation, Himachal Road Transport Corporation, which also takes forward essentially the policy statements concerning public – private partnerships in various forms. The state also has Boards that IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 76 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report are armed with some statutory provisions including penal provisions like the HPCB, HPSEB, HP Infrastructure Development Board, HP State Land Use and Wasteland Development Board, and Other Organisations like HIMURJA, HP State Council for Science, Technology & Environment- HPSCSTE, HP Aquaculture, Fishing and Marketing Society, HP Environment Information System Centre, HP Panchayati Raj Training Institute, HP Mid-Himalayan Watershed Development Project, District Rural Development Agency-DRDA, Shimla.

6. Panchayats

346. The Panchayat system has evolved and is effective with many important roles to play including those of according no objection certificates for any new projects including hydropower power projects. With the complexity of water, environmental and social issues, the strengthened role of Panchayats is seen to be crucial. Panchayat staff should be given the maximum support to develop strong and effective governance at the district and village levels. It is apparent that in Himachal Pradesh the local institutions like Panchayats are functional and the design of the decentralization policy seems to be working quite well. The team consultations in the Lippa village showed the important role of the Panchayat. From the documentation presented it is was not easy to assess the right or wrong, it however showed how a degree of decentralization or a standard “best practice” could be applied across sectors or villages. The example shows that in most development works the important role of communities in planning. The top down „master plans‟ or 'project approach' could fruitfully benefit from greater decentralization when well-designed and implemented. What is heartening is the fact that the review shows that there are institutions and legal frameworks which need to be integrated and implemented in a coordinated fashion.

347. The national, state and local policies and legislation are concerned, the 73rd and 74th Constitution Amendment Acts relating to rural and urban local governments and the 1993 key amendments to the Indian Constitution are especially relevant. The policies provided the legislative framework to introduce a three-tier system of elected councils in rural and urban areas in all states of India. The enactment of these Amendments created fully representative local government structures:

o At three levels for rural areas (Gram Panchayat at village level, Panchayat Samiti at intermediate or block level and Zilla Parishad at district level), o Four types of government for urban areas (Town Panchayats, Town Municipal Councils, City Municipal Councils and City Corporations, and o District Planning Committees (DPC) to consolidate the plans made by the elected councils for rural and urban areas into the draft development plan for each district.

348. The main features of the 73rd amendment are to specify standards for all states for the three levels of Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRIs) and to provide reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in proportion to their population. In addition, one third of the seats in these institutions are reserved for women. Since 1993, using opportunities created by the constitutional changes, a growing number of state and civil society institutions are engaged in strengthening successively elected local governments. The prevailing favourable environment for state-civil society engagement in strengthening decentralization is aided by the: setting up of a Ministry of Panchayati Raj. For the Satluj basin these devolvement of planning are very relevant; the very high levels of tribal population, difficult communications and the very complex level of issues requires very strong district and village administrations to support the processes of planning and management.

G. Planning and Control

349. Planning: Water resources planning in all the sectors is fragmented and tends to be based on a 'project approach'. Individual projects are identified by local government, sector agencies or developers and put forward for clearance and approvals. There is very limited available data on the water resources, environment, social impacts and economic returns- except that provided by the developer-private or government. The quality of the project documents-design costs assessment vary considerably and tend to be slewed to give the best impression to the assessor. There are often conflicts of interest where the agency approving the projects also has some vested interests. The role of resource management and developer are not always properly distinguished. Planning issue are numerous but include continued development of low performance irrigation schemes often with high IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 77 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report pumping heads, poorly resourced and qualified developers are building projects on marginal sites with potential conflicts and environmental constraints.

350. An example is the 2009 notification to sanction the setting up of Micro Hydel projects (upto 100kW capacity) to the end of the 11th Plan on 31st March 2012. This scheme provides grants of Central Financial Assistance for setting up such Micro Hydel Projects. However, the notification itself states that to date no specific studies have been taken up for assessing the potential for the projects up to 100kW but it is roughly estimated that there may be about 100MW of potential from Micro Hydel Projects up to 100kW in the state. This open invitation to developers, with subsidies provided, is designed to fast track micro hydro development but falls well short of an integrated approach and without well programmed consultations runs a high risk of community objection. The lack of studies or guidelines to help guide and identify minimum standards of planning is of concern. Highly professional supporting documentation to site selection are essential including requirements for hydrology, engineering, economic, financial and environmental assessments. Well managed community participation and identification of potential areas of conflict between the various users should form an important part of the assessment and in many cases outside the capacities of the developer, his consultant or the reviewing line department. It is recommended that model 'Detailed Project Reports' (DPRs) and supporting planning information/guidelines could be developed and that should provide all the information necessary for appraisal purposes under an IWRM paradigm. Also of concern is the small capital base of the developers especially NGOs who might find it difficult to comply with the various obligations arising out of compensations to be paid. The potentials for community partnerships in some of hydropower projects should be assessed.

351. Planning Standards: Improving the standards of planning and design processes is seen as a key need. Properly developed plans including adequate participation and compliance to a model DPR combined with improved screening and fully researched 'No Objection Certificates' (NOC) are a key to ensuring project sanctions at State and Central level. It is critical that integrated planning and the consideration for long term needs for water supplies and irrigation including assessment of impacts of climate change are incorporated into the decision to grant or not grant NOCs. Individual departments give their NOCs; without any integrated water resource plan or management authority, the broader issues are often not considered. Improved planning and better coordination at the lower levels, to review and assess the plans, can significantly improve the effectiveness of the state and central government agencies in effective sanctioning of project proposals.

352. District water planning is extremely complex; with heavy pressure to develop hydropower as well as irrigation and balancing these with the needs to preserve traditional water rights, to conserve drinking water all within a situation of changing water resources and potential impacts from climate change. Limited capacities at the district, often results in somewhat arbitrary decision making at the state level. DIPH offices at district levels are very poorly resourced; they are not provided even with maps. The staff are routinely rotated so the knowledge base of location of sources and the various offtakes is quite poor.

353. Periodic desk study assessment of hydro potential is done by HPSEB as well as HIMURJA. The main assessments are however done by corporate entities, small and big alike. This forms the main assessment of the potential for development of hydro power along the river basin. The actualization of power generation therefore is a function of policy priorities of the state as well as profit potentials as assessed by the private players. This makes judgment of the real viability of schemes almost impossible. The general assumption is that if the private investor risks his own finance then the scheme is viable as long as the statutory requirements for compensation and environment are met.

354. Guidelines to a number of planning aspects are quite well documented including the terms of compensation or environmental aspects like specification of muck dumping sites, however holistic assessment criteria have not been prepared. There is no criteria on the levels of performance that should be achieved-low performance schemes have the same environmental and social impacts but with lower financial benefit to the state. The performance of hydropower schemes is measured as the number of units of energy produced per MW of installed capacity. An indicative threshold is 1MW of capacity should produce 3.5million units (MU) per year of power, which reflects a power efficiency of 40%. Schemes below this rating are less efficient and might be considered marginal. In 2010 the Nathpa Jhakri scheme produced 4.6MU/MW. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 78 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

355. As in the case of many other states in India, there are a plethora of organisations involved in water, yet there are none that comprehensively carries out related functions of planning, development and management at basin levels. The many institutions within their mandate in the present circumstances are effectively unable to implement integrated water resource management despite some of them having in place elements of IWRM features and strategies. This aspect is encouraging and opens the way for scaling up the various IWRM initiatives presently in place. What is absent is an apex body that could play the role of arbitrator as well as allocator with an ability to account overall costs and benefits in order to prepare comprehensive charges.

H. Compensation Packages

356. Free Power Criterion: as per the present policy, the award of project is decided as;

(i) Projects having capacity of more than 5MW

o For first twelve years: 12%+ 1% on account of LADF o For next eighteen years: 18%+ 1% on account of LADF o Beyond thirty years : 30%+ 1% on account of LADF

357. The free power in lieu of royalty stated above is the bottom line and the project is allocated to the bidder on the basis of free power quoted over and above the minimum criterion. 1% on account of LADF, as referred to above, shall be payable by the IPP after the commissioning of the project on month to month basis & the revenue so generated shall be utilized for local area development.

(ii) For Projects having capacity up to 5MW: free power in lieu of royalty shall be payable to the GOHP as under:

o For first twelve years: 06%+ 1% on account of LADF o For next eighteen years: 15%+ 1% on account of LADF o Beyond thirty years: 24%+ 1% on account of LADF

358. In case the power so generated by the developer is sold to utilities other than the HPSEBL, the royalty percentage in first twelve years shall increase to 12% from 6%.

359. Upfront Premium: The successful bidder on allotment of the project with a capacity exceeding 5MW shall be required to pay upfront premium at the rate of Rs 20 lacs per MW. For projects upto 2MW capacity no upfront premium is payable but for the projects exceeding 2MW and below 5MW shall be required to pay upfront premium at Rs 90,000 per MW.

360. LADF during construction period: For the projects with a capacity exceeding 5MW, the power producer shall be required to pay 1.5% of the capital cost for local area development. Depending upon the project execution period, these charges shall be paid by the developer on annual basis. However, in respect of projects up to 5 MW capacity, LADF at 1% of total capital cost of the project shall be payable in above manner for the development of local area.

361. Forest Clearance: Compensation has to be provided for;(i) compensatory afforestation (CA); (ii) CAT plan; and (iii) diversion of forest land. Other compensations have to be provided to the Fishery department as also the SPCB as well as to the DIPH for disruption of any water supply or irrigation schemes.

362. The LADF system, where 1% of hydropower revenue is allocated to local development, is quite unique. New projects are coming up with compensation packages for almost every person and area howsoever remotely associated with the project. Sometimes it appears that there is eagerness to get the projects off the ground and hence compensating the people is a trade-off. A closer scrutiny reveals that the compensation amount is quite small except for a few cases, and in the absence of alternative investment opportunities, even those who receive compensation seem to fritter it away. Socially, this money is also altering the culture and social ethos as the younger generation of the affected people have started using the compensation money for subsistence and are losing interest in finding new means of livelihood. There are long term impacts of the projects which could not be compensated theoretically; for example, the projects cause vibrations while tunnelling. The somewhat IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 79 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report random allocation of compensation packages with sometimes compensations being paid to all actors whether they are directly affected or not. In the long term such pay-outs could potentially deter private investment and slow growth and poverty reduction efforts in some settings.

I. Regulatory Functions

363. Himachal Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (HPERC) is responsible for the control and management of regulations for the power sector. Environmental regulation outside the forests lands is through the Department of Environment. The Department of Forests control and regulates inside the forest areas.

1. Water Regulator

364. There is presently no water regulator. The 13th Finance Commission report 2009, has reviewed the need for state water regulators to address injudicious inter-sectoral and intra-sectoral distribution of water amongst various categories of water users, low water use efficiency, fragmented approach to water resources planning and development, low water user charges and meagre recovery are some of the major problems associated with the management of water resources. A statutory autonomous institution at the state level was considered a strong mechanism to help in addressing these issues. The Commission recommends setting up of a Water Regulatory Authority in each state with a brief including the following functions to: (i) fix and regulate the water tariff system and charges for surface and sub-surface water used for domestic, agriculture, industrial and other purposes; (ii) determine and regulate the distribution of entitlement for various categories of uses as well as within each category of use; and (iii) periodically review and monitor the water sector costs and revenues.

365. Central Government is proposing to provide incentive grants to support this purpose, the release of grants would be subject to the following conditionalities: (i) states should set up the Water Regulatory Authority by 2011/12; (ii) states are required to achieve the projected recovery rates to become eligible for grants; (iii) the incentive grants for water sector are an addition to normal maintenance expenditure to be incurred by the states; (iv) where the State Water Regulatory Authority mandates recovery rates, those would replace the recovery rates prescribed by us for that particular state for the purpose of eligibility and release of grants. A state shall be eligible for grants if it recovers at least 50% of the water charges mandated by the Authority.

366. For Himachal Pradesh the establishment of a fully independent water regulator is supported by scoping study consultants. Such a regulator could play a major role providing independent guidance to government in the planning and management of sustainable water resources. Sustainability includes resource sustainability as well as the financial sustainability. Inclusion of reforms to incorporate appropriate levels of cost recovery and tariffs must be an important aspect of water resources development.

367. Role of the Regulator for Performance Benchmarking: poor performance in many water sector projects is a major issue. Benchmarking aims to facilitate improvement by the sector agencies to meet targets of: (i) value for money investments; (ii) effective service delivery of water projects and (iii) financial sustainability through adequate cost recovery.

J. Move towards Integrated Water Resources Management

368. Principal Objectives for Integrated Water Resource Management should be the integration of land and water related aspects to be implemented based on a catchment basis. For a river such as the Satluj IWRM should be directed to: i) Promote a dynamic, interactive, iterative and multi-sectoral approach to water resources management including the identification and protection of potential sources of freshwater supply, that integrates technological, socio-economic, environmental and human health considerations; ii) Plan for the sustainable and rational utilisation, protection, conservation and management of water resources based on community needs and priorities within the framework of national economic development policy; IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 80 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report iii) Design, implement and evaluate projects and programs that are both economically efficient and socially appropriate within clearly defined strategies, based on an approach of full public participation, including that of women, youth, indigenous people and local communities in water management policy-making and decision making; iv) Identify and strengthen or develop, as required the appropriate institutional, legal and financial mechanisms to ensure that water policy and its implementation are a catalyst for sustainable social progress and economic growth.

369. Three functions: all of these elements can largely be represented in good integrated water resources management if there is no overlap or confusion of roles and functions between the components; three functions are identified; (i) regulator, standard setter/auditor; (ii) resource manager and (iii) operator and provider of technical service.

1. Water Sector Problem Analysis

370. Although the state has adopted a clear water policy, problems continue within the sector. An assessment of the main issues is presented below.

A. Organizational structures

o There is no agency dedicated to water resources management, providing properly functioning regulatory services to equitably share resources and to protect the common property environmental and social uses. o The newly formed Water Management Board comprising of senior ministers and senior members of the departments and agencies provide a senior forum for review and decision making. The board however lacks the lower mechanisms for comprehensive assessment and analysis of issues that can be presented to the board. o Sector agencies act both as resource managers as well as operators/service providers; these structures which do not adequately separate functions, create potential conflicts of interests between resource management and service provision; there is duplication of institutional effort arising from overlapping mandates and lack of a coordinating agency. o Little or no transparency and poor accountability arising from ill-defined institutional structures (overlaps, gaps, conflicts of interest); few mechanisms for stakeholder involvement and public participation related in part to limited focus on building awareness on water issues. o There is a blurring of the boundaries between private sector and public sector in resource management, resource protection, service provision and resource use; needs to be addressed.

B. Legislative and procedural issues

o Land management and land use change controls are yet to include processes to evaluate and manage water impacts. o A unified plan and operation for data collection and information generation and for data and information sharing; necessary to support integrated water management and assessment of climate change, requires to be developed. o There is almost no cost recovery or mechanisms; the lack of defined processes for setting charge levels with respect to service levels and are subject to political interference. o Poor value of money for the quality of service provided resulting from inadequate maintenance funds (related to the cost recovery issue). o Insufficient care in strengthening and building the capacity of WUAs as they are formed, and in confirming capability before management functions are handed over to them in conformity with provisions in the Irrigation Act.. o Need to standardize and strengthen dispute resolution mechanisms.

C. Human resource management

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 81 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

o A weak institutional capacity arising in part from an inability to develop specialist skills because of staff mobility; o Inefficient water and weak sanitation service providers at the district level resulting from delegation with inadequate capacity building and support; o Insufficient attention to matching human resources to changing responsibilities, such as with CADA‟s responsibility for establishing WUAs as well as the need to strengthen enforcement capacity in line with developing regulatory processes.

371. Without good regulation it is not possible to maximize the economic and social benefits resulting from water use in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. Good water resource regulation requires an enabling environment which ensures the rights and assets of all stakeholders (individuals as well as public and private sector organizations and companies, women as well as men, the poor as well as the better off), and protects public assets such as intrinsic environmental values.

2. Institutional Options

372. A modern, successful water management organization must reflect these concepts of good IWRM but cannot be all things rolled into one. The roles of regulator/standard setter, resource manager and operator should preferably be separated. In the Indian situation, certainly in the short term it is not easy to completely separate the functions; most of the water department and agencies combine the function of 'resource managers' together with an 'operating/development' role.

373. There are a number of institutional options for water management organisations to be able to fulfil the need for separate disaggregated functions. The preferred model depends very much on the local institutional needs and conditions78. Possible options based on international norms of best practice are summarised below and their application to Himachal Pradesh discussed.

a. Coordinating Committee or Council

374. This would bring together ministers or senior representatives of the agencies operating within the basin. It would meet at intervals to determine policies, strategies, operating principles, work plans etc and would monitor the performance of water operating and managing agencies to ensure compliance with state policies and strategies, but would not intrude in any day-to-day operation and management matters.

This „model‟ is most commonly used in a relatively stable or mature water and social environment, where population, irrigation and industry expansion is relatively small, and most water projects have been constructed. In such mature environments, management of existing resources and works is more the issue than new dams etc.

375. The present Himachal Pradesh Water Management Board could potentially meet this function The Board comprises of senior officials from the sectors and is chaired by the Chief Minister. A senior board is useful but in the river systems of Himachal there are so many issues that the board is considered inadequate alone to effectively direct and manage the complexities of development, environment, social issues and climate change.

b. State Water Commission/ Water Steering Committee

376. This approach is usually followed when 'significant development options are still an issue in the State, where conflicting uses are significant and where information and policies are either non-existent or confused because of different levels of development within the State'. It is common to use this approach where water planning and management options need considerable work, and where the simulation models, systems and the underlying data and information are not readily available, or where existing organisations are not sufficiently skilled to undertake the necessary work.

78 Note: The terminologies of Committee, Council, Commission and Authority have different meanings and empowerment levels in each country. The important issue here is the roles and functions suggested for each, and not the name. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 82 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

377. To meet the complexities of planning and management it is proposed that a State Water Resources Steering Committee is established. The steering committee would hold the responsibilities of a Water Commission but without the heavy bureaucracy and cost of a commission. From discussions with the government officials there is an understandable reluctance to create an additional heavy administration. The Water Resources Steering Committee would comprise of senior water planning and management directors drawn from existing water–related departments and agencies. It would be supported by nominated experts in key fields that can be called upon as required. It would not interfere directly in sector functions but would be directed at guiding planning and policy to meet the needs of integrated water resources management as well as steering the necessary water sector reforms. The commission would act as a liaison and coordination body which after a period of tenure hand over responsibilities to the more integrated sector agencies.

378. Role of the Water Resource Steering Committee to Support Institutional Reforms: significant institutional inefficiencies in the water sectors would be addressed by the Steering Committee. Long term sustainablities of water resources including the catchments are being compromised by the lack of integrated planning and management. The long term financial sustainablities of many water projects are in question due to the total lack of community participation, centralised government management, lack of resources for O&M, almost complete lack of cost recovery by beneficiaries for investment and totally inadequate tariff structures.

c. River Basin Organisation

379. This is usually set up for a river basin and is a large, multi-disciplinary organisation that “absorbs” virtually all of the functions of other agencies in the basin. It usually contains both the regulation and resource management functions, although these are separated within the organisation. Such an authority is usually established where there is a large development task to be performed over many years (examples being the Tennessee Valley Authority in USA, the Snowy Mountains Authority in Australia or the Mahawehli Authority in Sri Lanka) or where the existing array of agencies in a basin or country are ineffective, weak and with no strategic aim or direction. The establishment of a full river basin authority would be isolated from the state sectors and is not considered appropriate for Himachal Pradesh. It is proposed to build on the existing capacities of the BBMB to meet selected objectives of an River Basin Organisation. .

380. The BBMB is long established as a central government agency; its functions include: (i) operator functions to operate the Bhakra-Nangal project, Beas project, Beas Satluj Link project and Beas-Pong dam, (ii) river management functions regulation of supply of water from Satluj, Ravi and Beas to the States of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan; the Board also regulates the supply of power generated from Bhakra-Nangal and Beas projects; (iii) environmental aspects including environmental management planning, silt analysis, chemical and bacteriological tests for potable water, treatment plants, sewage treatment plants; (iv) catchment area treatment‟; and (v) hydrology rainfall monitoring and setting up of flood warning and decision support systems for the operation of the Bhakra dam. The possible conflict of interests of water manager and water operator is an issue and it is proposed the BBMB functions are segregated into: (i) operations and (ii) water resource management. Although primarily involved in water allocations in the lower Satluj it is involved in monitoring and assessment of the upper Satluj.

381. It is proposed that the BBMB takes on a major role in holistic river management to support the efficient and effective management of the upper river within Himachal Pradesh as well opening of dialogue and information exchange with PRC. The BBMB and other central government agencies could support and coordinate the ongoing and planned hydrology functions of DIPH including the complex analysis of climate change including rainfall, snow, glacier changes. To meet these requirements it is important that there is some separation from the operational and resource management functions of BBMB; this would require some changes to the functions and operating procedures. It is proposed that a new Water Resource Management Unit is established within the BBMB.

d. Lead Agency as the Water Resource Manager

382. A water agency or department is identified to take on the role of water resource manager and would coordinate the activities of the other water sectors. A new agency or changes could be made to IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 83 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report the existing agencies. Ideally the lead agency would not have operator or developer functions or at least the roles would be separated within the department. In Himachal Pradesh the numerous departments related to water resources make it difficult to nominate a water resource lead agency. There appear to be two criteria; agencies that manage the water sources i.e. the catchment and water users. As an initial step it is proposed to set up an IWRM unit within the DIPH.

383. Proposed Integrated Water Management Unit: It is proposed that the present planning and hydrology sections within the DIPH could be combined, expanded and strengthened with a new mandate and skills to become an “Integrated Water Management Unit”, leaving the remainder of the DIPH to specialise in its traditional role of irrigation and public health. The new 'water management unit ' would include a role in water resource planning, climate change, and guiding the planning organisations about issuing of licences and permits. Issuing of licenses and permits would be taken by either the district or state depending on the scale of the project. Staff from the various water resource sectors would be seconded to the unit.

K. Institutional Proposal

384. Long term and sustainable management of the Satluj basin requires strong institutional arrangements at the State, Basin, District and Community levels. The various issues and alternative arrangements based on international best practices are described above. For Himachal Pradesh and specifically the Satluj, it is proposed to develop a structure based international norms but reflecting the special needs of the river basin. The proposed arrangements are described broadly in Table 19 below.

Table 19 Institutional Proposals 1 Himachal Water The board as established should continue. The board requires to be Management Board strengthened and better supported and advised. The Water Regulator and Water Resources Steering Committees would be responsible to brief and support the board. 2 State Water A new 'State Water Resources Steering Committee'(WRSC) is Resources Steering proposed to support improved coordination of the sector agencies. Committee The committee would comprise of the Principal Secretaries of the departments of IPH, Forests, Energy, Environment, Panchayats, Agriculture, Horticulture and Rural Development. The committee would be supported by experts in relevant fields who can be called on as required. The steering committee would be charged with overseeing fairly significant institutional reforms to meet targets of efficiency, effective service delivery, participative management and financial sustainability through cost recovery for O&M costs. The committee would promote inter-sector coordination and would also advise the proposed water regulator on specific issues.

In addition the steering committee would be charged with overseeing fairly significant institutional reforms to meet targets of efficiency, effective service delivery, participative management and financial sustainability through cost recovery for O&M costs. The committee would promote inter-sector coordination and would also advise the proposed water regulator on specific issues. 3. Integrated Most farms are mixed food crops, vegetables, orchards, livestock and Agriculture and dairy. Mixed farming opens opportunities for better returns and reduces Horticulture vulnerabilities to climate and rainfall irregularities and other agricultural risks. Government support mechanisms would be more effective if agricultural support could be better integrated; this could be better achieved by closer integration or merging of the Departments of Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Husbandry; this would allow farmers to access integrated extension support through a „one stop shop‟. Irrigation and water supply systems should be designed to meet the integrated farm needs. 4 Integrated Water Present planning and hydrology sections within the DIPH could be IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 84 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Resources combined, expanded and strengthened with a new mandate and skills to Management Unit become an “IWRM Unit”, leaving the remainder of the IPH to specialise (IWRM) within IPH in its traditional role as an operator of irrigation and public health. The . new 'water resources management unit' would include a role in water resource planning including guiding the planning organisations about issuing of licences and permits. Issuing of licenses and permits would be taken by either the district or state based on the recommendations of the water regulator. The new IWRM management unit would encompass water resource aspects of climate change and would liaise with the Proposed Climate Change Centre being developed by DEST and provide information to the water regulator. 5 River Basin Authority It is proposed that the BBMB takes on a more significant role in holistic river management, to support the efficient and effective management of the upper river within Himachal Pradesh as well as the lower Satluj in the plains. The remit would include opening of dialogue and information exchange with PRC. The BBMB could support and coordinate the ongoing and planned hydrology functions of DIPH including the complex analysis of climate change including rainfall, snow, glacier changes. To meet these requirements would require some changes to the functions and operating procedures of the BBMB. The BBMB would work closely with the new Water Management Unit within IPH and provide technical guidance to the Water Resources Steering Committee 6 Water Regulatory Based on the proposals of the 13th Finance Commission, it is proposed Authority to establish an independent Water Regulatory Authority. The functions of the water regulator would include to: (i) fix and regulate the water tariff system and charges for domestic, agriculture, industrial and other purposes; (ii) determine and regulate the distribution of entitlement for various categories of uses as well as within each category of use; (iii) periodically review and monitor the water sector costs and revenues and establish benchmarks for evaluation of water sector performance; (iv) overview the progress of institutional water reforms and set benchmarks and (iv) review the integration of the different water towards IWRM. The Water Regulatory Authority (WRA) would work closely with the sector agencies on cost recovery as well as aspects of water distribution and entitlement for the different sectors. The regulator would advise government on the issuing of permits to water abstractions and release of waste water. The Water Regulatory Authority would have appropriate levels of independence, autonomy and financial independence from Government. 7 Empowerment of the It is proposed that the District level should take on an increased role in Districts for Planning the integrated planning and management of water resources. This and Management of would include to the strengthening of the District Planning Committee to Water Resources oversee the integration of sector programmes as well as ensuring effective stakeholder participation.

VIII. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN FOR THE SATLUJ RIVER

A. Lessons Learnt

385. Fragmented institutions and a rush to develop hydropower with a less than optimum level of investigation, implementation controls and lack of effective and timely implementation of environmental and social mitigation have left many issues unaddressed; in hindsight additional resources in these areas would have paid off. There is a lack of integrated planning and management of all the water sectors, the poor performance and lack of equitability of irrigation development and lack of community participation in planning and management of water projects is evident. Delays in implementing the CAT plans has affected how the projects are perceived and has resulted in loss of confidence in the IPPs and the Government. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 85 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

386. Coordination of development and management of water in the state is required such that water, land and related resources can be managed with equity and to ensure economic, social and environmental benefits to all stakeholders. This requires stakeholders to see the relative benefits for changing existing behaviour and address issues of accountability, financial and operational sustainability and needs of effective service delivery. The need for more strategic approaches to subsidies and parallel control and regulatory measures is critical. These goals are achievable through IWRM but require significant rethink and integration of sector strategies together with institutional strengthening and reforms.

387. Consultations with government and stakeholders reveal recognition of the need for a nodal agency/apex body in the state to improve decision making for better integrated water governance and to promote focus on water sector reforms. The need for an independent water regulator to meet the needs of equitable and sustainable management is critical, the regulator would also to address the very low levels of cost recovery which affects levels of service delivery and raises questions over long term sustainability of many water investments. The lack of operational targets and evaluation for water projects is resulting in significant waste of investment resources; effective benchmarking requires to be established including self assessment of the present status, setting targets of the future situation and formulation of plans to reach targets.

B. Analysis of Problems and Opportunities

388. The development of the Satluj to date has been a major achievement and has brought very significant benefit to the region, the state and the country. Local communities have developed and in the main have benefited through the hydropower program as well as parallel government initiatives including development of agriculture, irrigation, potable water, roads and power. There are, however, significant shortcomings that require to be addressed.

389. The impacts of climate changes are estimated to be significant. By mid century, it is estimated that temperature would rise by 20C, monsoon precipitation would increase by 15%, frequencies of intense rainfall storms would double. Initially reduced snow melt due to evaporation will be largely compensated by increased glacier melt; in the longer term however, a gradual decline in the combined melt flows will occur. The time scale very much depends on the elevation, in the lower level catchments some decline is already occurring and lower level tributaries will most affected in the short to medium term. An indicative 50%-60% glacier loss over the next 30 years is estimated for the whole basin. The increased melt rates, increased monsoon and increased number of intense rain events all point to increased silt levels. The strengthened summer monsoon is also likely to increase the chance of incursion of monsoon rains into the desert areas of Spiti and PRC, which is likely to result in major increases in sediment load and risk of destabilisation including avalanche blockages as well as Glacier Lake Floods.

390. The issues of water resources and the various sectors are discussed in the sections above. Seven key areas and associated opportunities to meet the needs of sustainability and climate adaptation have been identified as described in Table 20 below:

Table 20 Key Areas and Opportunities

Key Areas Opportunities 1 Effective Institutions for IWRM  Development of improved institutions and IWRM.  Establishment of effective institutional structure to support IWRM.  Increasing community participation in water planning and management.  Institutional development and training.  Establishment of a independent water regulator. Establishment of a Water Resources Steering Committee from the various sector agencies. Strengthening of district level planning and management including empowerment of the District Planning Committee  Institutional reforms to ensure integrated planning and management, effective community participation and financial sustainability through adequate cost recovery. 2 Water Resources Data and Information State of the art information systems covering water, snow, glaciers Systems Implementation of climate change projections and simulations. Support for rainfall forecasting, flood warning, glacier monitoring systems. Improved coordination and development of linkages between data IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 86 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

management activities by the sectors. 3 River and Catchment Restoration and  Restoration of parts of river and catchments most impacted by ongoing Management and completed infrastructure.  Overall management of soil and water conservation of catchments. Timely implementation of CAT plans.  Control and regulation of environmental flows.  Remediation of muck dumping sites.  Special treatment to protect major potential disaster and risk areas including flood, land slips, washouts, avalanche and glacier lakes . 4 Sustainable Planning and Management  Improved management of ongoing schemes. of Hydropower  Support for management of sediment.  Integrated planning for remaining planned schemes.  Improved participation and consultative planning and management  .Improved environmental mitigation  .Coordinated and standardized compensation packages.  Investment in hydropower schemes . 5 Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture  Upgrading service delivery and performance of irrigation schemes.  Development of precision agriculture and improved water use efficiencies  .Ensuring long term sustainable water sources under climate change conditions.  Integrated extension efforts for horticulture and agriculture. 6 Sustainable Water Supply Systems  Long term sustainable water supply systems. Assessment and sustainability of water sources under climate change conditions and impacts of tunnelling.  Development of improved service delivery and appropriate cost recovery. Assessment and implementing pilots for new initiatives including water harvesting, water reuse, combined water supply irrigation systems .  Continued water supply and sanitation investment to meet needs of improved supply standards and changes in hydrology. 7 Support for Rural Enterprises,  Diversification of employment to reduce dependence on agriculture Diversification, Training and Awareness and buffer against climate change impacts. Improve the employment opportunities in the area through support for local enterprises.  Lower income agriculture dependant families will be most vulnerable to climate change; provision of support for small enterprises.  Provision of training and awareness to communities to better understand the issues of development and opportunities for diversification.  Support for improved access credit for small enterprises including initiatives for precision agriculture, aquaculture tourism etc.

C. Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

391. The application of climate projections into the development of adaptation planning requires to be cautious and pragmatic. For the Satluj the issues are complex; temperature, rainfall, snow and glacier changes. From the review of climate change there remain many gaps and unknowns including lack of data and information. It is proposed that planning for the Satluj basin initially focuses on the very pressing and immediate present issues, with a gradual incorporation of climate adaptation as more robust estimates of climate change come available. The incorporation of climate change into planning and investment will depend on:

 The level of confidence of the projections; some projections are more robust than others; for example projections for temperature rise are more robust than estimates for changes in rainfall, snow and glacier melt.  The type and estimated design; life of any investment - major investments/programmes with long design life require incorporating climate projections beyond 30 years whereas shorter simpler initiatives can be designed to meet present climate variations. Major long term investments based on low levels of projection confidence would be avoided.  Scope for flexibility of the adaptation design; incorporating facilities wherever possible to upgrade adaptation design step by step to meet progressive climate changes.  An assessment of the incremental costs; to meet the projected impacts will be made; where incremental costs are low then these might be factored into the adaptation design whereas major cost implication maybe left out in the interim. The aspects of safety and implications of delayed action would be assessed. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 87 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

392. The broad approaches are described in the Table 21 below with more specific information presented in the assessment of the key areas of the strategy.

Table 21 Broad Approaches to Climate Change Class Criteria Broad recommendation Not sensitive  Activity not affected by climate change. Proceed based on analysis of existing  Short term design life. situation.  Highly flexible-design can be changed. Minor sensitivity  Short to medium term design life of investments.  Compile best possible assessment  Climate impacts reasonably well defined with of present and likely climate medium levels of confidence. impacts.  Investments can incorporate climate impacts with  Planning, design and no or minimum extra cost or would only require implementation can proceed minimum investment for change. largely based on present conditions. Medium sensitivity  Medium term design life.  Implications of climate change to  Climate change impacts not so well defined and be investigated. confidence levels are low to medium.  A value judgment to be made on  Climate impacts may have medium impacts on the the risks of proceeding without investment, costs to upgrade resistance medium to improved information. high. Highly sensitive  Long term project design life 30 years plus.  Detailed climate impact research  Limited understanding of implications of climate required before investment. changes.  Defer detailed design and  Significant cost implications of not properly assessment until data and addressing climate implications in the initial design. confidence in the climate impact better known.

D. Focal Areas of the Framework Strategy

393. To meet the needs of sustainable management of water resources and a gradual and well programmed incorporation of climate adaptation requires strengthening and change in the water resources sectors together with investment. Seven focal areas to meet this requirement are described in Table 22 to Table 28 below.

Table 22 Focal Area 1: Effective Institutions for Integrated Water Resources Management

Overview Establishment of an IWRM approach to the development and management of water resources in Himachal Pradesh Rationale The need for a move to manage water resources under IWRM with clearly defined, robust and coordinated institutions has been endorsed by government and stakeholders. In this context institutions include the laws policies in place and enforced.

Present institutions are fragmented with major gaps in the integration of efforts. There is no lead institution to coordinate control and support for IWRM. Funding for projects requires to be coordinated, additional funding for climate change adaptation are required to be sourced and managed.

There is very limited stakeholder consultation and participation in the planning and management of projects; stakeholders need to be empowered to take on management functions of the various water programs.

Districts need to be more active in planning and management of water resources. Strengthening of the District institutions including of the District Planning Committee is required

The level of cost recovery for water services is extremely low; tariff structures barely cover the cost of recovery. This lack of finance affects the levels of O&M, service delivery and long term sustainability of schemes.

Description o Review present institutional arrangements, detailed assessment of IWRM functions and necessary arrangements for inter sector coordination. Assessment and preparation of proposals for institutional changes and reforms. o Develop clear mandate for IWRM and the establishment of a water resources steering committee made up from the various water sectors. o Support the establishment of an independent water regulatory authority, strengthening of IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 88 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

water resources authorities and reforms to address issues of policy, tariffs, stakeholder participation and other regulatory functions. o Support for the District Administrations including the District Planning Committee and Sector Agencies at district level. o Establish benchmarking of sector and project performance. o Open dialogue and information sharing with neighbouring Punjab and PRC. o Review of the present arrangements and areas for central government support. Review national and state institutes to better coordinate research and applications of research to policies. o Prepare strategies for better coordination of resources to meet climate change including technical financial and environmental issues. Operationalise improved and climate orientated management initiatives. o General awareness and training for the government, stakeholders and general public. Specialist training for selected personnel. Upgrading of facilities including new computer technologies, GIS etc to be supported by training. o Develop mechanisms for devolvement of planning powers to districts with participation of the empowered stakeholders. Outputs o Integrated institutions in place. o Establishment of a Water Resources Steering Committee made up of the principal secretaries of the different sectors to coordinate water sector activities. o Establishment of an independent water regulator. o Strengthened and coordinated sector institutions including necessary reforms in place. o Improved coordination and management of private sectors including strengthening of the Satluj Forum. o Greater participation of communities and stakeholders. Implementing o Water Resource Steering Committee and Water Regulator with different sector agencies, Agencies district, private sector, communities and stakeholders. o To be coordinated and implemented through special project agency Climate Not sensitive there is a requirement for effective institutions, effects of climate change increases sensitivity the importance of this activity.

Table 23: Focal Area 2: Water Resources Data and Information Systems

Overview Development of a GIS based integrated water resources information system including information on surface, groundwater, snow and glacier resources, catchments, forestry, and environment. Information on development including hydropower, irrigation, water supply, floods, agriculture, industry etc.

Would include assessment of climate impacts including simulation studies; identification of needs and strategies and implementation of selected research projects.

The GIS and information system would be based on standardised formats principles of open data sharing between the sectors as well as building and supporting parallel data and climate initiatives including the climate change centre being developed by the DEST, planned hydrology centre of DIPH, IMD precipitation data and the BBMB decision support systems for the Satluj river. Rationale There is very limited data or information system to support water resources planning and climate impacts. Data is not shared between sectors including State and Central Government and national and international institutions. Under climate change historic data is no longer valid to support planning new methods required to incorporate climate projections. Water resources research needs to be planned and coordinated to meet the needs of the state. Various data centres are being established, it is not proposed to establish an additional data centre but instead focus on development of the various sector information systems and effective data sharing Description o Compilation of information of snow and glacier hydrology springs catchments. Improved field calibration of glaciers supported by remote sensing. Provision of investment support for glacier monitoring systems. o Development of improved information systems for PRC (possibly through an international organization such as ICIMOD (International Centre for Mountain Development based in Kathmandu)) o Specialist support to analyse the data and climate projection bring this into main stream planning. o Would build on the ongoing work under the HP2 project under DIPH and the proposed DEST climate change centre. o Application of information to disaster risk assessment and flood warning. o The information system would over all the basins in the State. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 89 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

o Training of departments in GIS and data management. o Establishment of information exchange systems and interdepartmental linkages. o Establishment of long term sustainable organization to manage the information system. Outputs o State of the art computer information systems within the various sectors. o Strengthened data management and open data sharing. o Guaranteed funding and specialist staff to ensure sustainability. o Development of water, snow and glacier simulation model for the Satluj. o Investment for flood warning and information systems for Indian and PRC catchment Implementing o Various water sectors agencies through the Water Resources Steering Committee Agencies o To be coordinated and implemented by a specialist consultant outputs to be given to sector agencies Climate Not sensitive -there is a requirement for good data system, climate change increases the sensitive importance.

Table 24: Focal Area 3: River and Catchment Restoration and Management

Overview Restoration of rivers and catchments based on integrated planning and applications of best practices to meet needs of sustainable catchments. Rationale Present catchment works are not sustainable poor survival rates of trees and check structures are frequently destroyed.

CAT plans have many shortcomings and are implemented outside the Forests department. The plans are for a limited period (5-7 years) with no provision for follow on. CAT planning requires to be better integrated with the sector programmes.

Parts areas of the catchments have been disturbed by hydropower and roads projects including erosion slips and muck dumping. Remediation measures have not always been satisfactory

Climate change will increase the pressure on the catchments - increased rainfall intensities, rain moving into the desert areas will increase hazards, avalanche drought glacier lakes floods will become increasing hazards. Specialist protection required to support sustainablities of vulnerable water sources.

Communities, roads and other investments are at risk from flash floods Description o Restoration of parts of river and catchments most impacted by ongoing and completed infrastructure works. o Overall management and implementation of soil and water conservation of catchments. Applications of best practices, new initiatives and technologies to meet requirement of sustainability. o Timely implementation of CAT plans - special application of needs for conservation of spring and tributary sources. o Assessment, control and regulation of environmental flows to ensure maintenance of the aquatic ecology. o Remediation of existing muck dumping sites; remodelling of dangerous or inappropriate sites. Appropriate use of muck for social community use. o Ensuring adequate set back of building from rivers and tributaries. o Special protection for high risk areas-communities at risk from flood, flash flood, mud slides. Permanent engineering protection measures for river banks and vulnerable khads to provide permanent protection for key roads. o Identification of areas of special vulnerability or environment that could be preserved as conservation areas. Support to establish selected conservation areas. Outputs o Long term sustainability of the catchments Satluj valley. . o Development of new technologies and planting systems. o Reduced risk to communities and infrastructure from landslides and slips. o Investment in soil and water conservation in the catchments, permanent river protection, Investments in new technologies to protect against land slips, mud slides, rockfalls and washouts. Implementing o The departments of Forests, Rural Development, Agriculture, Horticulture, District Agencies Administration and Panchayats, and IPPs through the Water Steering Committee. o Studies to be coordinated and implemented by a specialist consultant together with the IPPs. Climate o Low to medium sensitivity. Climate change changes will increase the intensities of rainfall sensitivity and rainfall patterns including drought periods which should be factored into the planning and design including species selection, design of retention structures. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 90 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Table 25: Focal Area 4 Sustainable Planning and Management of Hydropower

Overview Development of integrated sustainable planning and management of proposed, under construction and operational hydropower schemes. Rationale Hydropower is providing major economic and social benefits to Himachal Pradesh. There is now significant concern on the social and environmental impacts of the hydropower developments and the state is now facing major dilemmas to balance the development of hydropower with increasing pressures to maintain a sustainable environment and protect the local communities.

High levels of sediment is a major problem for the hydropower production in the Satluj river resulting in system closures and major maintenance costs. Climate change will have significant impacts on the hydrology of the rivers that must be incorporated into the planning. Issues of environment and community issues require to be addressed.

Small hydropower on the tributary rivers is especially sensitive with impacts and potential conflicts with other water uses. To date mitigation or ameliorative planning and strategies have not been addressed for small hydro. Hydropower located on small tributaries is most vulnerable to rainfall and climate changes.

To date 17% of the major hydropower potential is operational, 47% under construction and 36% under or pending investigation. There is a need to develop sustainable and environmentally appropriate plans for the proposed schemes as well as address issues for schemes under construction. Description o Integrated and holistic planning of the proposed hydropower schemes to ensure compliance with environmental, social and potential climate impacts. o Special focus on micro-hydropower on the tributary rivers; assessment to improve community participation and explore options for community partnerships for micro hydropower. o Fully participative plans with communities to ensure environmental and social agreements including preparation of updated cumulative impact assessment of the river. o High level consultative processes to ensure financial, technical, social criteria are fully compliant. o Assessment of critical capacity of river and social systems to absorb full development of hydropower. Development of alternative options including maintaining part of the river or tributaries without development. o Strengthening of management and optimization of existing schemes including coordination of releases and cascade management. o Liaison with PRC to asses long term plans in the upper catchment. o Assessment of mitigation measures including revisiting requirements of schemes under construction or in operation. o Improved better coordinated and regulated compensation packages. Outputs o Long term sustainable and integrated planning for the remaining hydropower schemes in the Satluj valley o Improved management of schemes under construction or in operation o Investment in planned small hydropower projects or upgrading of existing projects and ancillary works. o Investment in deficient mitigation measures o Improved perception and support by stakeholders Implementing o Departments of Energy, Environment, DIPH, HPSEB and concerned IPP with the Water Agencies Resources Steering Committee. o Studies to be coordinated and implemented by a specialist consultant together with the IPPs Climate o Medium to High Sensitivity. sensitivity o Changes in snow and glacier melts will affect the river flow patterns - the level of confidence that snow and glacier flows will reduce is high, the rate of decline is however less well defined. The proposed schemes are almost entirely dependent on snow and glacier melt. Hydropower investments are medium to long term investments (30-50 years) and the potential costs from non incorporation of climate change parameters would be significant. o Analysis and simulation of snow and glacier changes on river and tributary flows must be modelled to high degree of confidence

Table 26: Focal Area 5 Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture

Overview Improved service delivery and productivity of irrigated agriculture through moves to appropriate, equitable and efficient irrigation and agricultural practices and investments. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 91 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Rationale Irrigation efficiencies are low and large parts of irrigation schemes are do not receive water. The long term sustainability of some schemes especially pump schemes are issues. There is poor uptake of the irrigation services provided on some schemes. Very high irrigation investments must be supported by high return and efficient precision agriculture.

Climate change will likely affect the available water from springs and tributary rivers higher efficiency water distribution systems require to be piloted for vulnerable/low water availability systems and also for lift irrigation systems. Description o Integrated development of irrigated agricultural involving full cooperation of DIPH and Agriculture. Assessment and development of viable strategies to improve performance, efficiency and delivery of small and medium irrigation systems. o Upgrading service delivery and performance of irrigation schemes through improved management and improved technologies including the establishment of increased participation by stakeholders in irrigation management. o Development of precision agriculture including agricultural inputs and improved more efficient irrigation delivery systems especially for lift irrigation schemes. o Development of initiatives for water harvesting, conjunctive use of potable and irrigation water, use of water harvesting in conjunction with polyhouses and drip or sprinkler irrigation to minimise reliance on high head pumping projects. o Ensuring water sources under climate change are sustainable through mapping and monitoring and assessment of schemes and sources. Coordination with catchment initiatives to support the sustainability of vulnerable water sources. o Support for value added additions to agriculture produce including reduction in loss and waste, marketing, processing, storage including cold storage. o Development of small holder aquaculture systems including support systems for credit, training and marketing. o Conversion of marginal agriculture lands to forestry with payment by Carbon Credits. Outputs o Detailed assessments, planning and financing proposals to support appropriate support packages for irrigation and agriculture. o Researched and rational mechanisms for subsidies and support. o Investments and support measures for pilot schemes. o Investments or subsidies to support expansion of pilots. Implementing o Departments of Agriculture, Horticulture ,DIPH, District Administration and Panchayats. Agencies o Studies to be coordinated and implemented through a specialist agency, consultants and line departments under direction of the water resources steering committee. Climate o Medium sensitivity. Climate change will affect rainfall patterns, levels and timing of rainfall, sensitivity snow and glaciers which will impact on the spring and tributary flows. Lower level catchments are already affected, at higher elevations climate change impacts will impact gradually. Climate studies and simulations are required to identify risk areas. Lower altitude catchments the changes are already occurring; higher altitude catchments are more resilient.

Table 27: Focal Area 6 Sustainable Water Supplies and Sanitation

Overview Long term and sustainable water supply systems Rationale o Levels of service delivery of potable water are low and cost recovery is negligible. o Climate change and other impacts will put many water sources at risk. DIPH requires to maintain and improve supply standards. o Vulnerable village schemes are being replaced high investment multiple village lift schemes which incur major O&M costs and management. o Poor performance of septic tanks due to rock terrain and shallow top soils and impermeable rock. o Almost complete lack cost recovery means most water schemes totally dependent on government finance, this lack of financial sustainability requires to be addressed. Description o Assessment and sustainability of various water sources under climate change conditions and impacts of tunnelling. o Development of improved service delivery and appropriate cost recovery. Establishment of benchmarking to ensure service delivery targets are met. o Assessment and implementing pilots for new initiatives including water harvesting, water reuse, combined water supply irrigation systems to be incorporated into vulnerable schemes. o Mapping and water planning of schemes to ensure new developments for hydropower; irrigation do not create conflicts. o Support the environmental and sustainability aspects of industrial, quarrying, real estate and business development including planning for sustainable water supplies and management of waste water and impacts of quarrying works. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 92 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

o Support to upgrade and improve sanitation. o Support to assess and define water rights. Outputs o Integrated plan for water supply and sanitation based on inventories, monitoring and climate change assessments. o Participative assessment of planning options including institutional social and financial aspects. o Development of pilot schemes for water reuse, house rainwater tanks and combined irrigation/water supply systems. o Investment in rural water supplies and sanitation to ensure sustainability for most vulnerable communities. Investments would focus on long term sustainable solutions including reducing operational costs and avoidance of pumping. o Investment in Urban Water Supplies and Sanitation including measures to improve sustainability, service delivery and cost recovery. o Institutional reforms to allow for handover of responsibilities, improved service delivery and realistic levels of tariffs. Implementing o DIPH supported by specialist consultants. Agencies Climate o Medium - Climate change will impact on sustainablities of spring, tributaries and traditional sensitivity river systems. In some catchments the risks are already occurring. Simple climate simulations and hydrological assessments should be implemented to assess most vulnerable locations which can be taken up as a priority.

Table 28: Focal Area 7 Support for Rural Enterprises, Diversification, Training and Awareness

Overview Improvement for rural employment opportunities through establishment of small enterprise as buffer against climate change impacts and long term sustainability of communities. Rationale The basin has a well educated work force but limited employment opportunities outside agriculture, government and HEPs. Low income groups including scheduled castes and tribes are especially vulnerable to climate impacts.

Hydropower projects presently provide good employment but this will decrease when schemes are completed. The project would be of benefit the wider community who have had minimal or no benefit from the hydropower investments. Unemployment is quite low but vulnerabilities to climate change can be mitigated by diversification of employment. The development of small enterprises can reduce dependence on government and agriculture. Handing over management of water and irrigation schemes to communities requires to be taken up with management, financial and business expertise. There is a need to create awareness about climate change with specialist training in selected areas. Communities need to be aware of potential areas of vulnerability. Description o Support for diversification of rural employment both on and off farm through support for small enterprises. o Priority for communities or parts of communities identified as especially vulnerable to climate change. o Support to access credit for small enterprises including precision agriculture, aquaculture, tourism etc. Support for community enterprises to manage water projects including water supply, irrigation and micro-hydropower. o Promotion for real estate, business and industries to invest in the Satluj valley. Financial support for start up costs. o Provision of appropriate training and awareness programmes to communities to better understand the issues of development and sustainability and need and opportunities for diversification. o Improvement of communications including broadband to support development of IT related enterprises. o Support to allow better awareness to the wider communities about development issues. Outputs o A strategy for rural employment and diversification through small enterprises to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change. o Strategies for private sector, private sector partnerships. o Creation of new employment and establishment of small enterprises. Implementing o Various departments, including agriculture, tourism, rural development, district Agencies administrations and Panchayats. Climate o Low- there is a need to support alternative employment opportunities; climate change will sensitivity affect sustainability of agriculture especially in parts where there is no rainfall. The upper part of the basin is highly dependent on apples which may be susceptible to climate or other impacts.

IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 93 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

IX. ROADMAP FOR IMPLEMENTATION

A. Satluj River Basin Sustainability Project

394. It is proposed to establish a 'Satluj River Basin Sustainability Project' to address ongoing development, environmental and potential climate issues of the Satluj river basin in Himachal Pradesh. The project would put into place wide ranging initiatives, programmes and investments to meet the needs of river and catchment restoration, water resources development, climate adaptation and long term environmental and social sustainability of the Satluj river basin.

395. Discussions with Government and stakeholders fully endorse the need for an IWRM approach; with a focus to address continued and sustainable development of hydropower, agriculture, irrigation, water supplies and sanitation within a framework of sustainability of the water resources, catchments, and communities incorporating the likely impacts of climate change. The sector departments presently lack the flexibilities, capacities and level of integration required to meet the project objectives and a 'special project agency' would be required.

396. An eight year project is proposed and would be implemented through a new 'special project agency'. The agency would be established for the project period, after which it would be possible to hand over to the strengthened and better integrated sector agencies.

397. The project programme would be integrated involving and working closely with the key water sector agencies, the local authorities and private sector developers working through the 'special project agency' but working closely in coordination with the sector departments at state and district level, district administrations and Panchayats.

398. The project agency would be manned by a small core of carefully selected government staff on secondment including a senior project director. Specialist staff and consultants to be recruited as required. The project agency would strengthen and help develop better coordinated sectors within the four districts of the Satluj valley.

399. The project would in parallel work at the state level to instigate institutional reforms and strengthening of the water sector departments. The establishment of IWRM and institutional reforms is critical towards the long term sustainability of water resources in the state. Institutional reforms would be implemented in stages and would include the establishment of an independent water regulator.

B. Organisation

400. It is proposed that the project would be semi autonomous and as a multi sector project. There is a need to coordinate planning and policy decision through a high level interdepartmental working group. This project direction would be through a 'Water Resources Steering Committee' made up of the principal secretaries of the seven key water sector agencies (Forests, Rural Development, Agriculture, Horticulture, DIPH, Hydropower and Environment).

401. Given the need for a multi sector approach, the diversified number of stakeholders and interventions proposed, the project driven approach would be more appropriate to meet the objectives of achieving targets within a workable time frame. It is proposed however, that a dual approach is taken to: (i) develop project type initiatives to be implemented within the Satluj valley; in parallel with and (ii) a programme approach of support to the state level initiatives to develop the effective institutions and institutional reforms to meet the needs to establish IWRM and longer term sustainability.

402. The project would prepare an annual work program to be approved by the Water Resources Steering Committee. One of six sector agencies would be nominated as the State Executive Agency for the project. Government and External Support Funds would be channelled through the nominated State Executive Agency (SEA). Funds for the project will be budgeted as a single line item within the budget of the nominated SEA. On approval, these funds will be released to the various implementing agencies on a periodic basis. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 94 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

403. The project would hold its own finances including external finance, together with government contribution. In the Satluj catchment and the State there are a number of other funds available which should be applied as complementary to the project funds for specific requirements. These include the funds derived from the hydropower projects including: (i) CAT plans which are required to be not less than 2.5% of the capital cost of the hydropower project; and (ii) LADF which are 1.5% of the capital costs as well as 1% royalty for the sale of power to be used for community projects. The state government has its own sector funds as well as some grant funding from central government. Coordination and optimum use of the different funds during the project period and for the longer term to ensure effective use and sustainability will be an important activity to be coordinated through the Water Resources Steering Committee and the project. The project would be able to provide specialist expertise for project planning for these complementary funds, together with additional resources to ensure effective implementation.

404. The acknowledged good experience on the World Bank financed Mid-Himalayan Project79 provides a possible model from which lessons learnt would be applied. The Mid-Himalayan project was, however a very intense programme in an easier and smaller area than the Satluj. It is also important that the Satluj Project incorporates aspects of state level institutional development and reforms to achieve effective IWRM, which were not addressed under the Mid-Himalayan Project. It is proposed that the Satluj Sustainability Project would incorporate closer linkages with the ongoing sector programmes and greater level of bottom up and participative planning through strengthening mechanisms for effective consultation and opening up opportunities to facilitate more integrated water activities, not possible under the individual sector programmes. The project approach would allow more opportunities for flexibility and opportunities to contract in specialist support and resources to meet the targeted projects achievement within the agreed time frames. The project would however address the long term needs of sustainability through institutional development and reform .at the State level. The proposed project organisation is shown in Figure 21.

79 Himachal Pradesh Mid-Himalayan Watershed Development Project 2006 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 95 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 21 Satluj Sustainability Project

Government of Himachal New Water Pradesh Regulator Operational New: Water Resources standards and Bhakra Beas benchmarking Steering Committtee Management Board (BBMB) New Water Resource Management Unit

Empowered District Sector Agencies at State and District Levels- DIPH, Agriculture, Horiticulture, Planning Committee and Power, Rural Development, Forestry, Environment, ULBs, Industry Block Development Officers

SATLUJ SUSTAINABILITY PROJECT

`` STATE WIDE WATER SECTOR PROGRAMMES Effective Institutions for Integrated Water Resource Management Water Resources Data and Information Systems SATLUJ RIVER BASIN INVESTMENT and SUPPORT PROGRAMMES River and Sub Catchment Restoration and Management Hydropower Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture Sustainable Water Supplies and Sanitation Suport for Rural Enterprises and Diversification

C. Requirements for External Support

405. The project would require external specialist support to complement the existing skills of Government and Government Corporations staff. One key objective of the project is to bring in the development of new ideas and technologies that might be applied to support the development and sustainability of the Satluj river. It is estimated that specialist support would be required for: (i) institutional development and reforms; (ii) specialist parts of the water resources and data systems; (iii) new initiatives and design of pilot projects including river and catchment management, sustainable water supplies and sustainable precision irrigation and agriculture.

D. Project Scope

406. The project would involve a mixture of studies, planning, design, community liaison and participation, institutional development and reforms. The focus of investment would be the Satluj basin however wider institutional strengthening and reform would be taken up to the state level. The project would encompass the seven focal areas described above. The project would at two levels: (i) state wide water sector programmes and (ii) specific investment and support programmes in the Satluj river.

1. State Wide Water Sector Programmes

407. Effective Institutions for IWRM (Focal Area 1); consultations with Government and stakeholders reveals a strong recognition the needs of better integrated and strengthened water governance and water sector reforms. The need for an independent water regulator to meet the needs of equitable and sustainable management, high levels of service delivery and cost recovery is seen to be critical. It is proposed that the Project would support the planning and implementation of institutional change including; establishment of IWRM and an apex body/group to coordinate water IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 96 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report resources management, establishment and support for a water regulator, benchmarking and performance assessment of water sector projects, effective community participation in planning and management of water projects, effective and sustainable cost recovery to meet O&M costs.

408. Water Resources Data and Management Systems (Focal Area 2)Planning and management of water resources requires the development of a GIS based integrated water resources information system including information on surface, groundwater, snow and glacier resources, catchments, forestry, and environment. Information on development including hydropower, irrigation, water supply, floods, agriculture, industry etc. Data on finance and project benchmark monitoring and evaluation would be included. The project would support the development of information and management systems through the development and standardisation of databases and building on information and studies being developed by the different sectors.

409. It is proposed that the project would support the DEST-led initiatives for a Climate Change Resource and Remote Sensing Centre. Support would include data management setting up inter sector data sharing as well as support to coordinate and implement various climate change research activities. Similar and parallel support would be provided for the proposed DIPH Hydrology Centre in Mandi, the Department of Forests information system, the BBMB Decision Support System and an integrated hydropower information system as well as other information sources at State and Central level.

410. It is proposed that information would remain with the different departments who would be responsible for updating and upgrading. Data sharing mechanisms would be established to allow for easy dissemination and access to data by different departments.

411. The findings of State Climate Change Action Plan (SCCAP) currently in draft form and when finalised will provide a useful information source which should be incorporated into the project planning. The project would potentially be able to support the implementation of water aspects of the state action plan for climate change.

412. Training in data management and GIS will be required. The scoping study has developed a first stage GIS system which is summarised in Appendix 2.

413. Support for Training and Awareness (Focal Area 7) during consultations the need for training and awareness was repeatedly identified by the stakeholders at all levels. The training requirement includes communities, water stakeholders and Government at all levels. The specific training needs require to be assessed and the scope and depth of training defined, training would include specialist technical training as well as broader training in management. Training for sustainable management of water schemes is a priority area and should be integrated with programmes to hand over scheme management to Panchayats, ULBs and water user groups.

414. Awareness of climate change and development issues is important for the communities in the Satluj valley and it is proposed that specific awareness materials and training courses and interactive sessions are held.

2. Satluj Sub-Basin Investment and Support Programmes

415. Possible areas of investment and support are summarised in Table 29.

Table 29 Possible Areas for Investment and Support in the Satluj Basin River and Sub Catchment Restoration and Management (Focal Area 3) 1. Restoration and management of sub-catchments incorporation of new technologies for sustainable planting systems soil and water conservation using integrated approaches. Special emphasis will be provided to protect and conserve vulnerable water sources at risk from climate change and protection for communities at risk from mud and rock slides. The project would work in parallel with the ongoing CAT plans.

Development support for long term catchment sustainability. 2. Engineering protection works for critical erosion locations, permanent river protection along IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 97 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

about 3km of critical reaches along main Satluj river. Provision of land slip protection structures including high impact rock catchment fencing along critical parts of catchments and khads. Establishment of adequate set back of development close to rivers and khads. Safety measures for glacier lakes at risk of burst. 3 Remediation parts of river, tributaries and catchment affected by hydropower projects as well other environmental degradation. Installation of sustainable retaining walls and remediation of muck dumping sites. Finance would be through the responsible independent power providers (IPP) with co-financing or loan through the project. Hydropower (Focal Area 4) 4. Investment support for micro and mini hydropower schemes. Support for community partnerships in small hydropower. Support for upgrading of hydropower, transmission lines and other ancillary works etc. Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture (Focal Area 5) 5. Investment support for high water efficiency and precision irrigated agriculture. Priority will be given to existing schemes with poor levels of performance and service delivery as well as schemes with issues of water shortage and high pumping heads. Schemes will be built and upgraded with focus on meeting targets for productivity and sustainable management. Investment support will be provided for the development of water harvesting, small storages, polyhouses and drip irrigation systems to maximise production with minimum water requirement. Specialist extension support and management reforms would be provided to ensure production targets are met and ensure sustainability. Improved community participation and handover of responsibilities for management to beneficiaries. Investment support for pilot schemes to test and demonstrate new technologies. Parallel support initiatives to encourage private sector participation. 6 Support for changes in Agriculture: temperature and other climate changes will affect viabilities of cropping. Farmers will be provided support to change to robust cropping. On marginal lands support, initiatives will be provided for farmers to take up tree planting with financial support from carbon sequestration funding. Sustainable Water Supplies and Sanitation (Focal Area 6) 7 Investment support for water schemes with vulnerable or inadequate water sources with vulnerability to climate change. Development of new approaches for sustainable water supplies including water harvesting, water reuse to avoid high head pumped schemes. Management support for improved service delivery, effective O&M, appropriate tariffs and cost recovery. Increased community participation in management. 8 Support for Urban Water Supplies -investment support for development for urban water supplies is only required for Shimla and Nahan (Nahan is in Sirmour district is technically outside the basin but could be considered for investment). Other towns in the basin are already adequately provided. 9 Support for sanitation; development of sanitation lags behind water supplies; poorly functioning sceptic tanks due to the impermeable rock are health risk and sources of pollution. Support for sanitation facilities including functional sceptic tanks, piped sewage and sewage treatement.. Support for effective industrial wastewater facilities. Support for Rural Enterprises Diversification, Training and Awareness (Focal Area 7) 10 Investment support for small enterprises with special emphasis for agriculture, aquaculture, agro-processing, cold storage, marketing, micro hydropower, broadband etc. Support for Public Private Sector Partnerships, or Public Community Partnerships in appropriate areas, including management of irrigation water supply projects

E. Project Schedule

The proposed project schedule is summarised in

416. Figure 22. The project is proposed in three phases over eight years. Sub projects would be identified, planned and designed for Project 1 in year zero with implementation over four years. The need for IWRM and sustainability reforms in place is critical and three stages are proposed including the establishment of a independent water regulator by end of year two. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh 98 Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report

Figure 22 Project Schedule

ACTIVITY Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Project Phasing Project 1 Project 2 Project 3

Project Preparation State Wide Sector Programmes Effiective Institutions for IWRM Water Resources Steering Committee Established Water Regulator Established IWRM and Institutional Reforms In Place 1 2 3 Water Resources Data and Information Systems

Project 1 Sub Projects Project 2 Sub Projects Project 3 Sub Projects Project Management Unit and Support Consultants

Notes: Assessment, planning and design Institutional Reforms to be introduced in Tendering 3 stages 1, 2,3 Implementation