Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 43169 August 2010 INDIA: Integrated Water Resources Management Scoping Study for Sutlej River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation (Financed by the Water Financing Partnership Facility Resources, RSID) Part 2 – Main Report For: Asian Development Bank Government of India and Government of Himachal Pradesh This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. In preparing any country partnership strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. i PART 2 MAIN REPORT IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh ii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report PART 2 MAIN REPORT- TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1 A. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................. 1 B. STUDY RATIONALE .......................................................................................................................... 1 C. TERMS OF REFERENCE AND OUTPUTS ............................................................................................. 1 D. FIRST STAGE GIS FOR THE SATLUJ BASIN ....................................................................................... 1 E. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................ 1 F. RIVER FLOWS ................................................................................................................................. 4 G. SEDIMENT ...................................................................................................................................... 6 H. TRIBUTARY RIVERS ......................................................................................................................... 6 II. SNOW AND GLACIERS .................................................................................................................. 7 A. TREND ANALYSIS FOR PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE AND SNOW COVER ......................................... 8 1. Temperature .............................................................................................................................. 8 2. Rainfall ...................................................................................................................................... 9 3. Snow ......................................................................................................................................... 9 4. Glaciers and Modelling ........................................................................................................... 11 5. Impact on Extreme Flows ....................................................................................................... 14 6. Retreat of Glaciers .................................................................................................................. 14 7. Glacier Mass Balance ............................................................................................................. 16 B. GLACIER INVENTORY FOR SATLUJ .................................................................................................. 16 C. GLACIER LAKES ............................................................................................................................ 18 III. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ..................................................................... 19 A. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................. 19 B. THE PRECIS MODEL .................................................................................................................... 20 C. REGIONAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR INDIA USING PRECIS ............................................................ 21 D. SCENARIOS FOR SATLUJ USING PRECIS ....................................................................................... 21 1. Temperature ............................................................................................................................ 21 2. Precipitation ............................................................................................................................ 22 3. Precipitation intensity .............................................................................................................. 23 E. SNOW AND GLACIERS.................................................................................................................... 24 F. PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION .......................................................................................................... 26 IV. OVERVIEW OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND ISSUES ................................ 27 A. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................. 27 B. HYDROPOWER .............................................................................................................................. 28 C. IRRIGATION AND WATER SUPPLIES ................................................................................................ 29 D. FORESTS AND CATCHMENTS ......................................................................................................... 30 E. AGRICULTURE ............................................................................................................................... 31 F. FLOOD.......................................................................................................................................... 31 G. ENVIRONMENT .............................................................................................................................. 33 H. TRIBUTARY RIVERS ....................................................................................................................... 33 I. INTEGRATION OF DOWNSTREAM WATER USE IN PUNJAB ................................................................. 33 J. SUMMARY OF WATER RESOURCES ISSUES..................................................................................... 34 V. WATER RESOURCES SECTORS ................................................................................................ 35 A. HYDROELECTRIC POWER .............................................................................................................. 35 B. POWER DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................................. 37 C. PLANNED HYDROPOWER PROJECTS .............................................................................................. 40 1. Khab Storage Project .............................................................................................................. 40 D. AGRICULTURE ............................................................................................................................... 42 1. Major Challenges for Agriculture ............................................................................................. 43 E. FISHERIES .................................................................................................................................... 44 F. IRRIGATION ................................................................................................................................... 45 G. POTABLE WATER .......................................................................................................................... 47 H. FORESTRY .................................................................................................................................... 49 IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Final Report Part 2: Main Report 1. Compensatory Afforestation ................................................................................................... 51 I. SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION ................................................................................................. 51 1. Way Ahead .............................................................................................................................. 53 J. ROADS ......................................................................................................................................... 54 VI. ENVIRONMENT ......................................................................................................................... 54 A. SHUKLA COMMITTEE REPORT ........................................................................................................ 54 B. ENVIRONMENTAL CLEARANCE ....................................................................................................... 55 C. SUMMARY OF HYDROPOWER IMPACTS ..........................................................................................