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China Property Weekly Digest

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China Property Weekly Digest China / Hong Kong China Property Weekly Digest (Issue No. 284) Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 20 Feb 2019 Guidelines for the development of HSI: 28,228 ANALYST Greater Bay Area unveiled Jason LAM +852 3668 4179 [email protected] Danielle WANG CFA, +852 3668 4176 [email protected] • The State Council has released further details on Ken HE CFA, +86 21 3896 8221 [email protected] the development plan for Greater Bay Area (GBA) Inventory (no. of weeks of sales) of 16 cities* • Weekly GFA sales rebounded from the lull during CNY holiday 100.0 • Average short-selling interest moderated to 9% 90.0 80.0 • Stay with lowly geared large-cap names and 70.0 dividend plays with good payment records 60.0 50.0 State Council reveals guidelines for the development plan on the 40.0 GBA. The State Council has released the long-awaited details on 30.0 its development plans for the GBA. In our view, the economic 20.0 region has strong potential to outperform the rest of China and 10.0 attract both foreign and local capital to facilitate growth in the 0.0 tertiary sector if the plan is implemented as revealed. In turn, Jan-11 Jan-17 Jun-13 Apr-18 Nov-15 office plays within the economic region will stand to benefit, Mar-12 Aug-14 alongside other developers with sizeable exposure within the Inventory (no. of weeks) 26 weeks rolling avg GBA, such as Yuexiu (123 HK), Yuexiu REIT (405 HK), SZI (604 HK). Warehouse landlord of Vanke (2202 HK) and R&F (2777 HK) New launches in 10 major cities and sell-through rate may stand to benefit from the improved infrastructure facilities. 30,000 100% Weekly GFA sales have recovered from the lull during CNY 90% holiday. Last week (11 – 17 Feb), gross floor area (GFA) sold in 30 25,000 80% 20,000 70% cities we track rebounded by 807% w-o-w as the previous week 60% 15,000 50% was affected by the CNY holiday. The average GFA sales over the 40% 10,000 past two weeks came in 22% higher than the two weeks of CNY 30% 5,000 20% 10% last year. Month-to-date, average weekly GFA sold was 23% 0 0% lower than that of Feb-18. Inventory level stood at 48 weeks. 6W17 2W18 Average sell-through rate in key cities last week stood at 67%. 2W19 51W16 13W17 20W17 27W17 34W17 41W17 48W17 11W18 18W18 25W18 32W18 39W18 47W18 Average short-selling interest moderated to 9%. The average Total units launched (LHS) percentage of southbound shareholding in the China Property Sell-through rate (RHS) 26w avg sector last week fell further from 5.04% to 4.99%, with Road King (1098 HK) and Agile (3383 HK) seeing the highest * Rolling 26 weeks inventory percentage of southbound outflows. Average short-selling Weekly sales performance (Feb 11 – Feb 17) interest in the sector moderated to 9%, with CG (2007 HK) and YT D v s YT D v s YT D v s Evergrande (3333 HK) recording the highest figures. w-o-w 2018 2017 2016 Recommend lowly geared large-cap names and dividend plays Avg weekly GFA sold ↑ 806.8% ↓ 29.4% ↓ 18.6% ↓ 36.5% Inventory (no. of weeks) ↑ 0.5 ↑ 5.9 ↑ 9.7 with good payment records. The sector is now trading at 4.9x FY19E PE, as compared to our anticipated near-term trading range of 4.0-5.5x that is expected to be maintained before the v s same v s same v s same period 2018 period 2017 period 2016 introduction of any meaningful sector stimuli. We recommend to YTD GFA sold ↓ 15.6% ↑ 6.4% ↓ 12.7% stay with large-cap names with strong balance sheets for market Source: CREIS, Fang.com, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) share expansion in 2019, such as COLI (688 HK) and Vanke (2202 HK). We also like Yuzhou (1628 HK) and Times (1233 HK) for their high final dividend yields, good dividend payment records and low refinancing pressure. ed-TH / sa- CS/AH China / Hong Kong China Property Weekly Digest Share price performance Average short selling interest as percentage of trading YTD Share price performance volume (Feb 11 – Feb 15) Glorious China South City CC Land Sector avg: +12% Sector Avearge: 9% SRE Shui On Land First Sponsor Shimao Yuzhou Properties Ying Li Evergrande Poly (Hong Kong) Longfor COGO BJ North Star Minmetals Yanlord Land Road King SZI Shenzhen Inv Large caps KWG Sunshine 100 China Lai Fung Times China China South City HSI Index Greentown Sino-Ocean Yuexiu Kaisa Group COLI Soho China Small caps MSCI China BJ Cap Land 'H' Hopson China Jinmao Renhe Commercial China SCE Agile Shimao Property Yanlord Sunac China Shui On Land Kaisa Sino-Ocean Land Mid caps Vanke China Overseas BJ Cap Land Greenland HK CIFI Holdings C Garden Agile Property Zhong An COGO Longfor Powerlong SOHO China Vanke 'H' Poly HK KWG Property Yuzhou Greentown Guangzhou R&F Sunac CIFI China Jinmao Hldgs Renhe GZ R&F Logan Property Evergrande -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Country Garden 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Daily trading volume (Feb 11 – Feb 15) US$ mn 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SZI CIFI COLI Agile KWG Sunac SOHO Vanke Renhe COGO Yuexiu Ying Li Ying GZ R&F GZ Shimao Poly HK Poly Yuzhou Hopson Longfor Yanlord C Garden C Zhong An Zhong Road King Road China SCE China Powerlong Evergrande Greentown Sino-Ocean BJ Cap Land Cap BJ China South… China BJ NorthStar BJ Shui On Land On Shui China Jinmao China HK Greenland Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, HKEx, DBS HK Page 2 China / Hong Kong China Property Weekly Digest Average weekly trading volume US$ mn 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 SZI CIFI COLI Agile Kaisa KWG Sunac SOHO Vanke Renhe COGO Yuexiu Ying Li Ying GZ R&F GZ Shimao Yuzhou Poly HK Poly Hopson Longfor Yanlord Lai Fung Lai Glorious C Garden C Zhong An Zhong Road King Road Minmetals China SCE China Powerlong Evergrande Greentown Sino-Ocean BJ Cap Land BJ BJ North Star BJ Shui On Land On Shui China Jinmao China Greenland HK Greenland China South City South China 2019 2018 2017 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, DBS HK Overall southbound shareholding in CCASS w-o-w* % change of shareholding by southbound trading No. of shares (bn) Road King 12,000 Agile Yuzhou COLI 11,000 Greenland HK Longfor GZ R&F 10,000 Sunac Shenzhen Inv Poly HK 9,000 CIFI Evergrande 8,000 Sino-Ocean Logan BJ North Star 7,000 Vanke SOHO China SCE 6,000 Renhe Country Garden Shui On Land Hopson 17-Jul-18 17-Jul-17 China South City 17-Jan-19 17-Jan-18 17-Sep-17 17-Sep-18 17-Nov-17 17-Nov-18 17-Mar-17 17-Mar-18 17-May-18 17-May-17 Shimao Powerlong Kaisa COGO Greentown Yuexiu China Jinmao Times China KWG -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P *Between 28-Jan to 8-Feb Page 3 China / Hong Kong China Property Weekly Digest Weekly sales performance of major cities Tier I cities Tier I cities: Weekly GFA sales of key cities GFA % change as compared to A v g of Last week previous 4 City (000 sm) w-o-w y -o-y week s A v g 2018 A v g 2017 A v g 2016 A v g 2015 A v g 2014 Beijing 77 n.a. 1565% -33% -23% -28% -58% -65% -59% Shanghai 208 3984% 636% 30% -17% -21% -51% -52% -34% Shenzhen 36 n.a. n.a. 2% -36% -47% -56% -72% -54% Guangzhou 85 3433% 246% -13% -54% -63% -68% -59% -47% Tier I total 405 5304% 606% -3% -33% -40% -58% -62% -48% Source: CREIS, DBS HK Tier I cities: Weekly ASP of key cities A SP % change as compared to A v g of Last week prev ious City (Rmb/sm) w-o-w y -o-y 4 week s A v g 2018 A v g 2017 A v g 2016 A v g 2015 A v g 2014 Beijing 47,274 n.a. 10% 31% 14% 8% 31% 76% 86% Shanghai 27,691 -24% 9% -13% -7% 5% 4% 20% 47% Shenzhen 54,449 n.a. n.a. 32% 3% 0% 0% 65% 131% Guangzhou n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Tier I total 43,138 -24% 10% 17% 3% 4% 12% 53% 88% Source: CREIS, DBS HK Tier I cities: YTD avg GFA sales of key cities Tier I cities: Avg ASP of key cities 000 sm Yoy (%) RMB/sm Yoy (%) 1,600 80% 60,000 15% 1,400 70% 60% 50,000 10% 1,200 50% 1,000 40% 40,000 5% 30% 800 20% 30,000 0% 600 10% 400 0% 20,000 -5% -10% 200 -20% 10,000 -10% 0 -30% 0 -15% Beijing Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou 2018 (LHS) 2017 (LHS) Yoy (RHS) 2018 avg (LHS) 2017 avg (LHS) Yoy (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK Page 4 China / Hong Kong China Property Weekly Digest Tier II cities Tier II cities: Weekly GFA sales of key cities GFA % change as compared to A v g of Last week prev ious City (000 sm) w-o-w y -o-y 4 week s A v g 2018 A v g 2017 A v g 2016 A v g 2015 A v g 2014 Hangzhou 34 6680% -5% -20% -58% -73% -79% -71% -59% Suzhou 59 1880% 31% -10% -49% -47% -65% -74% -62% Changsha 87 2603% 20% -24% -59% -58% -83% -71% -68% Ningbo 87 14417% 315% -26% -53% -39% -37% -14% 5% Wuhan 298 n.a.
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