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Concessions on Land Premium Yet to Come, Initiate with “Neutral”

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Concessions on Land Premium Yet to Come, Initiate with “Neutral” 股 票 Research 研 究 Company Report: Henderson Land (00012 HK) Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Equity 公司报告：恒基地产 (00012 HK) +852 2509 5348 [email protected] 29 January 2018 Concessions on Land Premium Yet to Come, Initiate with “Neutral” 补地价优惠尚未来临，首予“中性”评级 公 司 HLD is a leading property developer with businesses in Hong Kong and Rating: Neutral throughout mainland China. In addition to property development and Initial 报 property investment, HLD also has department store operations, hotel 评级： 中性 (首次研究) 告 operations, ferry operations and a utility business through 4 listed companies. HLD has a wide variety in its land bank in Hong Kong including agricultural Company Report land in New Territories (44.9 million sq.ft.), old buildings acquired for 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$54.08 redevelopment and land purchased through government land auctions (24.2 million sq.ft.). Share price 股价： HK$55.200 We estimate underlying net profit to be HKD15,282 million, HKD9,929 million and HKD10,432 million in 2017-2019, respectively. Since we expect that HLD’s property development revenue recognized in 2018 will Stock performance 股价表现 decrease, the reduction will drive down the underlying net profit in that year. Underlying net margins are expected to be 57.2%, 51.0% and 44.0% in % of return 50.0 2017-2019, respectively. 40.0 Initiate with “Neutral” rating and a TP of HKD54.08, which represents a 证 32.0% discount of our 2018 NAV estimate. HLD has secured its project 30.0 券 告 pipelines in the next few years through the redevelopment of old buildings and 20.0 研 报 the conversion of agricultural land into residential development. The bloom in 10.0 the residential property market in Chinese tier-2 cities will be reflected 究 究 0.0 gradually in HLD’s residential development business. Nevertheless, the 报 研 government has rejected the idea to offer concessions on land premium in the (10.0) 告 starter homes scheme. In our view. HLD’s current share price has already Feb-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 券 priced in the improvements in fundamentals. HSI index Henderson Land Equity Research Report 证 恒基地产是香港和中国大陆业务的领先房地产开发商。除了物业发展和物业投资外，恒基 地产还通过 家上市公司进行百货公司，酒店，渡轮和公用事业业务。恒基地产在香港有 4 各类的土地储备，包括新界农地(44.9 百万平方呎)，市区重建土地和通过政府卖地的土地 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y (24.2 百万平方呎)。 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 5.8 6.5 39.3 我们估计 2017-2019 年度的基础净利润分别为 152.82 亿港元，99.29 亿港元和 104.32 亿 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS index 港元。我们预计恒基地产 2018 年的物业发展收入入账将有所下降，因此该年度的基础净 (5.6) (10.7) (3.4) 房 相对恒指变动 % 利润将回落。我们预计 2017-2019 年恒基地产的基础净利润率为 57.2%，51.0%和 44.0%。 Avg. share price(HK$) 52.8 51.6 46.8 地 平均股价（港元） Sector 首予“中性”评级，目标价为 54.08 港元，较我们 2018 年估值有 32.0％折让。恒基地产 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 产 通过市区重建和将农地转为住宅开发，确保了未来几年的项目发展。中国二线城市的住宅 行 物业市场繁荣将逐步反映在公司的住宅开发业务中。不过，政府已经表明无意为首置上车 盘计划提供地价优惠。我们认为公司的股价已充分反映了公司的基本面改善。 业 Property Underlying Underlying Underlying Underlying Net EPS EPS Underlying ROE Year End Turnover Profit 每股核心 每股净利 PER BPS PBR DPS Yield 核心净资产 年结 收入 核心净利 净利 变动 核心市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 收益率 12/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%) 2015A 23,641 11,009 2.752 (8.0) 19.1 62.796 0.84 1.450 2.8 4.5 2016A 25,568 14,169 3.541 28.7 14.8 65.867 0.80 1.550 3.0 5.5 HK) HK) 2017F 26,718 15,282 3.820 7.9 13.7 70.341 0.75 1.610 3.1 5.6 2018F 19,486 9,929 2.482 (35.0) 21.2 73.219 0.72 1.610 3.1 3.5 012 恒 0 2019F 23,692 10,518 2.629 5.9 20.0 76.316 0.69 1.610 3.1 3.5 基 (0 地 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 4,001.1 Major shareholder 大股东 Dr. Lee Shau Kee 72.82% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 220,860.7 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 27.2 产 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 3,422.1 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) 15.6 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 56.000 / 38.591 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 79.5 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. HendersonLand See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 35 Henderson Land (00012 HK) Table of contents Company History, Developments and Strategy ............................................................................... 3 Industry Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 12 January 2018 Overview of the Property Market in Hong Kong .............................................................................. 12 29 Residential Property .................................................................................................................... 12 Office Property ............................................................................................................................ 15 Industrial Property ....................................................................................................................... 17 Retail Property ............................................................................................................................ 19 Overview of Property Markets of Selected Cities in China .............................................................. 20 Guangzhou ................................................................................................................................. 20 Shanghai .................................................................................................................................... 21 Beijing ......................................................................................................................................... 22 Overall Residential Property Market in China ................................................................................. 23 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 24 Revenue Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 24 Margin Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 27 Net Profit Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 28 ROA and ROE Analysis .................................................................................................................. 28 ) Liquidity Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 29 00012 HK ( Valuation ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Major Risk Factors ........................................................................................................................... 32 恒基地产 Henderson Land Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 35 Henderson Land (00012 HK) Company History, Developments and Strategy Henderson Land Development Company Limited (“HLD” or “the Company”) is a leading property developer with businesses in Hong Kong and throughout mainland China. HLD was founded in 1976 by Dr. Lee Shau Kee, who is still the Company’s chairman today. In addition to property development and property investment businesses, HLD also has department store operations, hotel operations, ferry operations and a utility business through Henderson Investment Limited (00097 HK, 69.32% equity interest), Miramar Hotel and Investment Company Limited (00071 HK, 46.27% equity interest), Hong Kong Ferry (Holdings) Company Limited (00050 HK, 33.41% equity interest) and the Hong Kong and China Gas January 2018 Company Limited (00003 HK, 41.53% equity interest). HLD has a wide variety in its land bank in Hong Kong, as evidenced by 29 its agricultural land holding in New Territories, old buildings acquired for redevelopment and land purchased through government land auctions. HLD has 24 urban redevelopment projects in which ownership has been fully consolidated as at 30 June 2017, providing an attributable GFA of 2.3 million sq.ft. mainly for sale in 2018 and 2019. In addition, HLD also has 21 urban redevelopment projects with over 80% ownership secured, which is expected to provide 1.7 million sq.ft. for sale in 2018 and beyond. Figure-1: HLD’s Shareholder Structure as at 30 June 2017 Dr. Lee Shau Kee The Public and/or his family trust 73.08% 26.92% Henderson Land Development Company Limited (00012 HK) 33.41% 69.32% 41.53% 46.27% Hong Kong Ferry Henderson The Hong Kong Miramar Hotel and (Holdings) Investment and China Gas Investment Company Limited Company Limited Company Limited ) (00050 HK) (00097 HK) (00003 HK) (00071 HK) Limited 00012 HK (HK stock code: 50) 64.56% ( Towngas China Company Limited 恒基地产 (01083 HK) Source: HLD’s 2017 Interim Results Investor Presentation. Henderson Land HLD adopts a “three pillars” model to diversify its business. HLD adopts a “three pillars” model, which comprises property investment, strategic investments and property development in both Hong Kong and mainland China. Property investment business and strategic investments provide a reliable and growing income source to the Group, while property development business acts as a dynamic profit driver. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 35 Henderson Land (00012 HK) Figure-2: HLD’s Business Structure Property Investment Hong Kong Commercial Business Office Residential/ Hotels and Serviced Apartments Industrial Car Park Property Sales Residential Commercial January 2018 Industrial 29 Property Investment China Business Commercial Office Car Park Property Sales Residential Commercial Industrial Department store
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